In March 2013 I decided to play Nostradamus regarding the Dodgers and made predictions as to what would happen to a number of Dodger players in eight years.
So here we are, seven seasons later, and I can now see how far off I was with my predictions. Surprised? Not really. I always seem to view the Blue with optimism. Here is the post below. I’ll interject with italics to comment on how off I was with my prognostications:
“Tonight was ticket draw night with the group of co-workers that have Giants season tickets. I didn’t do too bad. I drew the Dodgers three times and then I was able to get a few bobble head give away nights, meaning I can sell those seats and purchase more tickets for when the Dodgers come to town. Bottom line, I’ll see the Dodgers at least six times in San Francisco this year.
“This is my 17th consecutive year in which my employer has banished me to the land of orange and black and I take part in their season ticket plan. I’m fairly certain that I’ll spend the rest of my days here due to the familial roots that are now entrenched in this place. Retirement looms on the horizon, but it’s probably 8 years away. It’s a year in the distant future (2021) that is constantly in the back of my mind, as I plan on spending much of the baseball season enjoying it in the shadows of Dodger Stadium after that date has arrived.
“Eight years doesn’t seem like a long time in the grand scheme of things, but in the life of baseball, it can seem like an eternity. Where will the Dodgers be in 8 years? Will any current Dodgers be on the roster? If I were a betting man, this is how I would predict things to follow. Please note, my predictions are on the optimistic side.”
2020 note: I am close to retirement, and the end of 2021 appears to be the date. I did get overseas assignments for four years during that span, but I’m back in the Bay Area. Retire in California? I doubt it. Looking to leave for various reasons. Back to the 2013 predictions…
“In 2021, eight years from now:
“36-year-old Matt Kemp, now two years removed from the conclusion of his multi-year deal currently in place decides to finish his career as a Dodger. He is breaking out the first baseman’s glove in Spring Training and hoping to have another productive year. He has a few career milestones he’d like to achieve. 22 homers short of 400, Kemp is attempting to pass Duke Snider as the all-time Dodger home run hitter. He’s zeroing in on 2,500-lifetime hits as well. If Kemp can prolong his career in the Dodger infield, he’s hoping to approach the 500 homer/3,000 hit plateau before the age of 40. It’ll be a stretch to make it, but Kemp continues to be a workhorse in the gym and is staying in shape.”
2020 note: Looks like I missed the mark on Kemp. Injuries hit him hard. He lost several steps in the outfield real quickly. He copped an attitude about being moved from CF where he couldn’t cut it anymore. The gym workhorse stuff started to tail off and the dates with Rihanna (and others) heated up. His lifetime numbers now?
Not 22 homers short of 400, more like 119 homers short at 281. All-time Dodger home run leader? Not close. Not even able to surpass Karros as the all-time Dodger home run leader. He was on the trajectory to reach those feats after 2012, but then the wheels came off. Too bad. I liked Kemp but his lifetime 1,780 hits won’t’ come close to the 2,500 I predicted. As he ends his career as a Miami Marlin, He probably won’t be around long enough to reach 2,000.
“Clayton Kershaw has just won his 210th career victory to close out the 2020 season. He too has remained a Dodger after signing a long term 7-year deal after the 2013 season for upwards of $180 million. Though his contract concluded following the 2020 season, the Dodgers inked the 32 year old left-handed to another 3-year deal at $100 million because he won 18 games and finished second in the Cy Young voting to Greg Maddux Jr., of the Cubs. Kershaw has taken home the Cy Young Award in 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2018 having escaped arm injury throughout his 13-year career, all with the Dodgers.”
2020 note: If Kershaw were to miraculously win 20 this year, He’d have 189 wins. With the shortened season, he will probably win 12-13 in a good year. I said he’d sign a 7-year deal for over $180 million. I was off a bit. How about $217 million? That’s what Kershaw has earned from 2013 through the end of 2020. He’s inked through 2021 for another $31 million. Cy Young Awards in ’13, ’15, ’16 and ’18? He won two, (2013 and 2014). It could be argued he should have won in 2017. There was a third-place finish in 2015. Not too far off. No arm injury. Back issues though. Greg Maddox, Jr? Not sure where that came from.
Kershaw is a Hall of Famer and looks to have found a second wind with the newfound training program with Driveline.
“Zack Greinke retired following the 2020 season at age 36. He currently is working in the Dodger front office as an assistant to Dodger General Manager Logan White. Greinke had a fine career with the Dodgers, having won 93 games in Dodger blue before going down with an injury in the final year of his six-year $148 million contract. The Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal in 2019, but he never could recover from the elbow problems.”
2020 note: Greinke is still going strong with his second team after the Dodgers. I still think the MLB front office is in his future but there are probably a few more seasons in his arm. Logan White I believe would make a fine G.M., but the director of scouting seems to be his forte. Now toiling in San Diego. The future looks bright in that organization with all their young talent.
“Yasiel Puig is a baseball superstar and was the leading vote-getter on the American League All-Star team. After spending seven years in the Dodger organization in a steal of a deal $42 million contract, the two time National League MVP filed for free agency after the 2018 season at age 30. The New York Yankees signed him to a seven-year $300 million contract and he patrols center field for the Bronx Bombers. Puig, a fan favorite in Los Angeles, broke into the Dodger outfield in 2014 and won the National League MVP in 2016 and 2017. In his six years as a Dodger, Puig hit 194 homers and stole 222 bases. In his 2017 MVP season, he hit 47 homers and drove in 123 runs. The catalyst of four Dodger pennant winners and two World Championship teams, the tandem of Puig and Kemp terrorized National League pitching for a four year period. Dodger fans remain miffed that Puig turned down a lucrative offer to stay in L.A.”
2020 note: OK, stop laughing. I really thought highly of Puig. To me, he looked to be a superstar after that rookie year, but he didn’t mature. He didn’t work hard. He didn’t listen to coaches. He failed to learn from mistakes. He never sniffed an MVP award. With 132 lifetime homers and 79 stolen bases, he didn’t approach what I said he would. 47 homers in 2017 were actually 28 homers, in that same season, his career-best. There were flashes with Puig, but overall he was a disappointment. Still, the $42 million he was paid was a steal for the Dodgers. It just could have been much better, and now he’s out of baseball without a contract offer. Perhaps he ends up with an incentive-laden deal in the American League or even in Japan or Korea.
“Corey Seager, the 27-year-old Dodger third baseman, is coming into his own. After breaking in with the big club in 2016 as a 22-year-old rookie, he took the Rookie of the Year hardware home and hasn’t looked back. In 2020, Seager was an offensive force, batting .312, hitting 32 homers and OPSing at .978. A three-time all-star, Corey is a fan favorite and having signed a 7-year deal, he may turn out to be the greatest Dodger third baseman in history.”
2020 Note: Not too bad considering that in 2013, Seager hadn’t even been in the Dodger organization for a year yet. He is still a shortstop. TJ and back surgery cost him a season. I was accurate on the Rookie of the Year prediction for 2016. Seager as an offensive force in 2020 remains to be seen. It is certainly a possibility. He is a 2- time All-Star but he hasn’t approached 32 homers in a year. His lifetime OPS is at a respectable .853 clip.
“Kenley Jansen also remains with the Dodgers. His cutter has developed substantially and after seven years as the Dodger closer, he has 250-lifetime saves. Known as a clutch reliever with a lot of postseason experience, Jansen is arguably the greatest Dodger relief pitcher in history. Now 32 years old, Jansen has lost a few ticks on his fastball, but still can throw heat when necessary and oh, that cutter is nasty.”
2020 Note: Jansen is still the closer.I predicted that he’d have 250 career saves by the end of 2020. Going into 2020 he has saved 51 more with 301. That is after two subpar seasons. I believe it is safe to say he is the greatest closer in team history, and that he has lost some velocity. The cutter has been questionable for a few years and isn’t as nasty as it used to be but maybe Driveline has changed that. This is one prediction where I wasn’t too far off.
“Care to make any other predictions? Dee Gordon, Matt Magill, Chris Reed, Javy Guerra, Shawn Tolleson, Zack Lee, Chad Billingsley, Don Mattingly. Where will they be and what will they have accomplished?”
2020 Note: Gordon- PEDS, a Marlin, a Mariner. Long ago out of the organization. He had promise and potential but never panned out.
Magill- overseas success, now with Seattle, not much of a factor.
Reed- out of baseball.
Guerra-A National. Not much of a factor after leaving L.A. He looked promising as a Dodger for a short time.
Tolleson- Kershaw’s high school friend. Did well in Texas and then injuries cut his career short.
Zack Lee- Thank you for Chris Taylor.
Billingsley- Injuries, an attempted (failed) comeback in Philly. Too bad. He had so much promise at one time. He was a solid Dodger starter for a few years.
Mattingley- He had a good thing handed to him, (the Dodger job), and he wasn’t able to make a difference.
Future predicitons? Not on your life. I suck at this.
Discussion (72)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Bear, your music was outstanding. In an industry where so many untalented rise to stardom, it is unfortunate that someone with talent such as yours is overlooked. I am certain that it happens in all industries (especially music and sports), but it is still a shame when it goes unnoticed.
I grew up during the Viet Nam era, and had a couple of friends not make it back. And many others who did make it back, but not really. I fully expected to be drafted (in 1971), and was ready to go if called, but fortunately I was never called, even though my birth date was called. I later had someone connected to the draft said that “too many” were being selected from the North Hollywood Draft Board which I believe had the most registered in the country. I grew up idolizing the military, and I was no different in that era. I got into fights because I was supportive of the soldiers fighting in Viet Nam. So thank you and to Badger and anyone else who served during that time (or any other time). Your service will always be appreciated by most. I hate getting political, but your song Don’t Look Down On Me brought back memories of the mid to late 60’s and early 70’s when the political animosity was at least as bad as it is today, and may have been worse. We will eventually get past this current animosity as we did in that era. But it is painful, and our veterans should never have been treated as they were.
At my daughter’s wedding, since I was paying, I asked if I could have a dance with her mother akin to her first dance with her new husband. She said yes, and I had previously arranged with the DJ to queue up “Through the Years” by Kenny Rogers for that dance. It was then, and it remains today, my favorite Kenny Rogers song. And that is for someone who has just about everything he ever recorded on my iTunes. Kenny, RIP. While you may be gone, your music will last forever.
To fill my time. I’m enjoying reruns of old baseball games on MLB channel. The older, the better. I would love to see an old black and white of a Koufax game. I recently watch a Yankee @ Detroit game from June of 1976 featuring a complete game by Mark Fidrych. I remember he was way quirky but but seeing him again reminded me of how quirky and how refreshing he was. I loved it. In those days anything perceived to be showing somebody up drew ire. I guess Thurman Munson especially took issue with Fidrych’s animated behavior. It would be extreme today but in 1976 talking to the ball, manicuring the mound with his hand, and talking to himself was never seen before. And wonderful. He was very much a victim of the times as well. With just 2 seasons in MiLB he became a sensation in Detroit in 76 at age 21, going 19 and 9 and winning ROY. He also logged 250 innings on that young arm something that would never happen today, thankfully. In 77 he tore cartilage in his knee shagging in BP. It’s claimed that the knee caused arm trouble but I bet the 250 innings didn’t help. It was later discovered in 85, he had a torn rotator cuff. After 76, he was 10 and 10 his last 4 years. What a shame. With today’s medical technology and innings restrictions who knows how long Mark and many others like Koufax could have pitched?
Fidrych had a darting arm side running fastball at 93 (big stuff in 76 and average for today) and and a snappy slider with great control. I guess he had a change but i didn’t see it. That 2 pitch combo, along with his funk, would have made him a devastating closer in today’s game.
I’m glad to have a chance to watch any baseball right now. I can’t believe how we hit back then. Lots of stride, weight shift and front foot hitting. You never saw foul balls off the ankles and feet. No ankle and elbow guards. And far fewer baseballs used.
I’m glad to have had the chance to watch Fidrych once again. He was a treat.
As a very young boy living in Southern California I wanted to be outside playing. My dad watched the game of the week and always tried to get me to watch an inning or two when I ran through the house eager to get back outside.
The Dodgers and Yankees were popular teams and my Dad liked the Dodgers. A couple of times when I watched a few innings with him, the Dodgers were playing and Duke Snider would hit a home run. I became a fan of both Duke and the Dodgers in 1953 and my best recall of players and games were from the 1955 World Series.
I loved hearing the Gillette Blue Blade song (quickest slickest shave…) in the morning that let me know the WS was about to start. Kids got to listen to the WS at school on the radio. That was when baseball was truly America’s game.
There was a baseball game played today between two Junior College teams. The centipedes came back in the bottom of the ninth from a 10 to 0 deficit and won 14 to 10. They didn’t get a runner on base until the 9th. Asked why it took so long for them to get going and they said it took that long to get their shoes on.
I’m already self quarantined so just cringe and take it.
Bear…..Went to your songs and listened to them both. Everyone should go to hear them. I thought both of them were wonderfully written and performed. Satisfied, if not, should have been a big big hit. I loved it. Don’t Look Down On Me, I liked also and understood the lyrics describing the shameful way the Viet Nam Vets returning home were treated. Thank you for sharing your music and keep writing and singing.
I grew up a Yankees fan starting in the very early 1950’s – Mickey Mantle, Whitey Ford, Yogi Berra, et al, When the Giants arrived in San Francisco, and my father met Chris Pelekoudas and got to go into the umpires dressing room and got the autographs of Orlando Cepeda and Willie MCCovey. Since I lived in Santa Clara and actually earlier lived in Naval Housing in Hunters Point (actually it was only up to age 1 1/2) it was just natural that would become a Giants fan.
When did the light’s finally come on and I switched allegiances?
I met my current wife of over 45 years and her family lived in Southern California and had Season tickets. My first visit to LA I was invited to a Dodgers game. It was beautiful as was the weather and the women at the game. It sure beat Candlestick park and the even older Seals Stadium where you had to bundle up in July and where the wind blew trash through the stadium.
Never went back to Candlestick and have been a Dodger fan for almost 50 years,
Growing up in Canada, I became attached to the Brooklyn Dodgers because of Sandy Koufax, Jackie Robinson, Duke Snyder, PeeWee Reese, Johnny Podres, Clem Labine and others. When I moved to SoCal, I continued to follow and root for them. Have never wavered and they have always been my favorite team.
I saw an interview with Kenny Rogers yesterday from four years ago. He said he felt that “Lady” was his favorite and “Islands in the Stream” was not far behind.
I’ve lived in NJ all my life and have been a Dodgers since the mid 50’s (among a sea of Yankees fans) There’s something thing I’ve been curious about. To all of you westerners who were baseball fans in the mid 50’s (before anyone knew that the Dodgers would be moving to LA) How did you choose which ML team you were going to root for? Was it based on which ML team had a farm team near you or was it for some other reason? Just my curiosity.
Do you have any of your music on YouTube, Bear? If so, could you post it on here? I, with others on this blog, I am sure, would love to hear it.
So sad to hear of Kenny Rogers. Being a romantic, some of my favorites were Lady, She Believes In Me and Islands In The Sun.
Kenny Rogers’ music is some of the very first music in English I recall ever hearing. He was one of the very best. And one of the first to really cross over to mainstream.
79 cases out of a population of 6.7 million doesn’t tell us much Mark until we are told how many people have been tested. That’s the important ratio: cases/number tested.
I have that movie on blu ray disc. Very well done and Christian Bale does a fine job playing the officer in charge. I have always liked Wes Studi who played the chief they were returning to his native lands, and Adam Beach who was his son. We have not had any confirmed cases in my small town, and so far only 1 death in the state. An elderly lady in Colorado Springs. My illness turned out to be something totally unrelated, so I am thankful for that. I am feeling a lot better too. I still check on MLBtraderumors.com. There has been a lot of player movement as some are optioned out. 2 Padres pitchers to also have TJ surgery. I remember how revolutionary it was when John had it as a Dodger. It sure managed to lengthen his career.
Report on Yardbarker says the union is wanting full service time even if the 2020 season is cancelled. This is going to get nasty.
A sad day for me. Last night Kenny Rogers passed away at 81. One of the few who had multiple hits across different genre’s of music, he was one of those singers who’s voice was so distinctive that you knew who was singing the moment you heard the song. One song spawned 5 TV movies, and a movie was also made of another of his tunes. The Gambler, and Coward of the County. I have done his songs on stage so many times. I had done Lucille so much, that a friend of mine and me made up a parody of the tune just to keep it from not being monotonous. He had not had a chart topping song since 1999, but continued to record and tour up until 2018 when he started having health issues. He along with Haggard, Jennings, Alabama, and a few others shaped the kind of music I loved to perform. RIP Kenny. Your music will always inspire me.
Very informative letter, Mark. I agree water treatment is essential to good health for the reasons stated in letter. Water is gold, we need to protect it.
US Water Systems is still open. No one is sick. We have two people working from home because they are high risk.
Here’s our industry’s stance:
Open Letter on WQA member essential products and services
An Open Letter from the Water Quality Association on
Life Sustaining Essential Products and Services During the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis and
Shelter-in-Place Directives
March 20, 2020
The Water Quality Association (WQA) and its more than 2,500 member companies work to ensure that homes and businesses throughout America, including health care facilities, nursing homes and dialysis centers, have access to quality drinking water and in many cases purified water.
In responding to the COVID-19 crisis, water treatment professionals, manufacturers, deliverers and service providers of point-of-use and point-of-entry (POU/POE) water treatment products and home and business delivered bottled water are incorporated into many designations and categories (and governmental announcements and directives) for products and services deemed “essential” due to the critical products and services they provide and their role in safeguarding America’s drinking water.
For so many citizens in the United States, whether rural, suburban or urban, such products and services are life sustaining, basic and fundamental – the very essence of “essential.” These products and services are a must have, like electricity and working plumbing. Consider the following:
Some small public water systems rely on POU/POE treatment systems for compliance to the Safe Drinking Water Act
The food and beverage industry relies on POU/POE treatment systems to meet their quality requirements
Restaurants rely on POU/POE treatment systems throughout their stores (coffee, beverages, protection of kitchen appliances, etc.)
Most if not all, bottle water production requires water treatment prior to bottling
Many manufacturing processes require POU/POE treatment systems in order to achieve the specific water quality needed for processes and formulations
The pharmaceutical industry requires extremely high-quality water
Medical clinics and hospitals require POU/POE treatment devices (e.g., dialysis equipment, Legionella treatment devices, highly purified water, protection of sensitive equipment, etc.)
Even for consumers on municipal water, POU/POE systems are helping to protect public health by serving as a Final Barrier against unexpected contamination events
These systems must be maintained, or they will no longer work to protect public health
Denying consumers access to these products and services will only escalate the panicked rush on bottled water
Hydration is vital as we fight this illness
Some consumers have medical conditions that dictate special water-quality requirements
Some people who suffer from eczema need a very high-quality water for bathing and showering
CPAP users need access to purified water
If the drinking water treatment systems are not maintained, warranties on certain products and systems will be voided, and these devices will be damaged or even stop working altogether
Furthermore, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued advisory guidance to state, local, and tribal officials on March 19 regarding the designation of essential employees who are necessary to maintain critical infrastructure and public works. In that guidance, DHS advises that governmental authorities designate manufacturers of public health equipment and “employees needed to operate and maintain drinking water and wastewater/drainage infrastructure” as “essential”. In addition, it identifies as “essential” those “workers such as plumbers, electricians, exterminators, and other service providers who provide services that are necessary to maintaining the safety, sanitation, and essential operation of residences.” WQA agrees with those recommendations. Text of DHS guidance can be found here.
It is for these reasons that water treatment professionals, manufacturers, deliverers and service providers of point of use and point of entry water treatment products and home and business delivered bottled water are “essential” and their associated employees are “essential employees.”
Thank you for all your effort to combat the coronavirus pandemic and support American families and businesses.
Pauli Signature
Pauli Undesser
WQA Executive Director
A couple of notes. Giants pitcher Beede also to have TJ surgery. Players still being optioned to the minors as business goes on. Here is something I found interesting, Betts needs 102 days of service time to qualify for free agency. What was once a given is now not so sure. More than likely the players assn and MLB are going to have to reach some sort of an agreement over that. I will also keep some rookies from becoming super 2’s. Bud Black say’s he is open to double headers to make up games. Another thing the league and the players assn will have to hash out. There was a list of the top 25 centers of all time in the NBA on yahoo. 3 Lakers were 1-2-3. Jabbar, Chamberlain, and Shaq. 3 other Lakers were in the top 11. George Mikan, Bob McAdoo, and Dwight Howard.
Rumor at the time was that Duren’s glasses could be substituted at our local observatory.
He would take those suckers off to clean and batters could be heard mumbling prayers.
Chris Sale to have TJ!
So far, 2 Lakers have been tested positive for the virus.
My dad was a die hard Wrigley Field/Angel fan … Going to Gilmore Field for the Holly wood Stars was just not going to happen..
I lost no sleep over Kemp… Why?? Can’t really point to anything… The wall and Rihanna also took it’s toll…
Puig…Wish the controversy would end… I haven’t seen such God given go to waste… (Carlos Bernier and Johnny Werhas come to mind)
I know I’m practically alone with this, but when Piazza let it be known to the media that he felt embarrassed and disrespected by the contract he was offered by the Blue, I wasn’t sad he left…
Beltre was a HUGE mistake…
Jaysen Werth… wished that they would have given him a year more to get over his injury woes..
I suck at prognostication so therefore I do not even try. As for Matt Kemp, it is funny how one incident can derail a career. For Kemp, it was a hard meeting with the left center field fence at Coors Field in 2012. Up until that moment, Kemp was on a pace to absolutely crush the numbers he put up in 2011. He was hitting above .350. Playing a solid CF. stealing bases, and providing power. After the crash, he went on the DL and was out for quite a while. He missed 56 games. He still managed to hit .303 with 23 homers. In 2013 mostly due to injuries, he had an awful season. He had 2 different surgeries. In 2014, he staged a comeback of sorts. He played in 150 games, had 25 homers and 89 ribbies and hit a solid .283. A good year, not quite beast mode like. He was then traded to the Padres and had decent numbers while playing 150 or more games over the next 2 years. He drove in 100 runs both seasons and in 2016 hit 35 homers. Injuries plagued him in 2017, and then he was traded back to LA> He was not expected by anyone to make the opening day roster. But he did, as a starter and the Dodgers were lucky to have him because with Seager out, and various other injuries, his stellar first half kept them close in the race. In the first 92 games he hit .310 with 15 homers and 60 ribbies. And until they got Machado just after the all star game, he was their main source of power from the right side. He did not fare as well the second half, and tailed off a bit. But he hit .339 in Sept when they needed him the most with 3 HR’s and 16 Ribbies. He only got 10 at bats in the World Series, but hit their first homer at Boston. So no matter what you might think of Matt Kemp, through most of his career as a Dodger he played very good baseball. The little snit about moving from CF notwithstanding, he was solid. In 10 years as a Dodger he had a .292 average and 203 HR’s. Numbers some of the other players can only see in their dreams. I liked Kemp, always will. I think he did a great job as a Dodger and gave us some really great memories. Only seeing the bad in a player can make your vision of the game very narrow. One little incident, changed a career. Another Dodger CF had the same kind of misfortune, Pete Reiser. Pete ran face first into the CF wall in St Louis chasing a ball hit by Enos Slaughter. He was never really the same. He was hitting .350 at the time, and only missed 4 games, but tailed off hitting .244 the rest of the way. He was carted off the field a record 11 times. He even fractured his skull once, and still made the throw back to the infield. Durocher once said of Reiser, he had more power than Willie Mays, all of the tools to be a superstar except luck. A little luck, and Kemp may have won a couple of MVP’s. We will never know.
I was never a Kemp fan, even in his very good years.
Fun article. Did you write these predictions down at the time? I know your Puig prediction didn’t come to pass, but I saw him play in his last game as a Chattanooga Lookout when I was living in Mobile, AL, and thought he might be another Roberto Clemente. He looked so good early on. Too bad his career isn’t what it might have been. I’m sitting here with three different Puig t-shirts in my dresser which I don’t wear anymore. Oh, well, I picked up a Cody Bellinger shirt as my go- to as well as an old Manny #99.
Thank you for the in-depth report, Evan. It is always interesting to look back to see what was predicted then and what happened now. I agree with you on Greinke, one of my favorites WHEN he was a Dodger. I think he will be in the front office in the future with someone. Glad to see you were really close on predictions for Kershaw, Seager And Jansen. Will forgive you for Kemp and Puig.
Haha, in 2013, I would’ve 100% agreed with you on Kemp. Even before 2013, I thought he was on track to become the greatest LA Dodger hitter of all time (a path Piazza was on until we stupidly traded him, or Beltre was on before we stupidly let him go)