Dodger fans have been lamenting the fact that Dodger starting pitchers (not named Clayton Kershaw) are not pitching deep into games. I have listened to this so much it makes me want to puke. 200 innings used to be the landmark by which starting pitchers were judged. Shoot, in 1963, Don Drysdale pitched 315 innings and Sandy Koufax pitched 311 innings. Johnny Podres pitched 198 innings and between the three they pitched 47 complete games. Those were the good ole’ days. It ain’t happening now!
In 1966, Koufax pitched 323 innings, Drysdale pitched 273 innings, Claude Osteen pitched 240 innings and Don Sutton pitched 225 innings. Old Dodger fans have come to expect that this is the way it is supposed to be. Forget about it! Like Bob Dylan said:
FLASH! This just in:
This is not just a Dodger issue – it is an issue that is occurring all across baseball. Look at the drop in the number of pitchers who pitched at least 199 innings since 2013:
- 2013 – 38
- 2014 – 37
- 2015 – 28
- 2016 – 17
Less than half of the number of pitchers who pitched 200 innings in 2013 actually pitched 200 innings in 2016! That is a steep decline and not just something that affects the Dodgers – All of baseball is plagued with this. What is the cause for this? I personally don’t think it is any one thing, but I do think analytics has played a huge role in this decline. Here’s why: Analytics show us that many pitchers lose location after the second time through the lineup. It’s not so much the velocity that is gone, but the location is what shows up first. And, it’s not just the location, but analytics also can tell a hitter when and where the pitcher is likely to miss, so that the hitter is waiting on that particular pitch.
I think hitters are more aware of where mistakes are made because of fatigue and capitalize on that. I’m sure that’s not the entire reason, but it has to be taken into consideration. That said, if he stays healthy, it’s almost a sure thing that Clayton Kershaw will pitch 200+ innings (it’s hard to believe he will be 29 soon), but beyond that, what can we really expect from the rest of the staff?
- Kenta Maeda says he wants to pitch 200 innings, but is it wise and can he really do it? I say no to both. Keep him at 175.
- Rich Hill is not likely to pitch 200 innings – frankly, I’d be happy with 150-160 from him.
- Scott Kazmir, if healthy, may pitch 150+ innings as he has done that 4 times, but it’s a gamble that he really can.
- Brandon McCarthy is a rotation possibility, but he has pitched 200 innings only once and if healthy (that’s always the question) would it be wise to let him pitch 200 innings? Of course not. First, he has to make the rotation and on this team, that’s a big task.
- I think Julio Urias will pitch up to 180 innings (maybe more) and the reports about him this offseason are encouraging, as he is focused on conditioning, diet and stamina. He looks slimmer than last year and I think is ready to take the next step, which I believe will be a sub 3.00 ERA and pitching deeper into games.
- Ross Stripling could start for a lot of teams in MLB, but he’s a darkhorse candidate at this juncture. He actually pitched 100 innings in 2016 after his TJ surgery and could likely pitch 150-170 this season IF he was in the rotation.
- Alex Wood is just 26 (barely) and pitched 171 innings in 2014, followed by 189 innings in 2015. His injuries and elbow surgery limited him to 60 innings last year, but he is a guy who could give you 170+ as well.
- Brock Stewart pitched 149 innings last season and at age 25, I could see him approaching 200 innings… but he likely won;t be in the rotation.
- Hyun-Jin Ryu was once a very good pitcher. Will he be healthy? What can we expect? I have no clue and neither do you. That’s all I can say about that! Wait and see… he says he is pain-free.
Walker Buehler and Chase De Jong are also possibilities, but both are probably 2018 arrivals. But you never know…
Here’s the truth: pitching 200 innings is guarantee of nothing. The Giants had 3 pitchers pitch 200 innings last year and look where they ended up. In 2014, the year they won the World Series, they had one 200 inning pitcher. The Indians got to the World Series with just one 200 inning pitcher as well. Surprisingly, the Cubs had just one too in 2016. I could go on and on, but here’s my point: GIVE IT A REST! Not many pitchers pitch 200 innings anymore. Get used to it! Bullpens are used more. Analytics play a part. Get over it! It’s not just the Dodgers – it’s every team!
Here’s the upshot: The Dodgers rotation is the deepest in baseball… by far. YES… by far! The truth is, if everyone is healthy, the Dodgers have a logjam in their starting rotation. Even if they are not healthy, they have WAY too many starters… if that is even possible. You will likely see them use the 10-day DL a lot this year. It’s a great tool for the new paradigm. The Dodgers are going to make use of the tools they have. There are lots of possible reasons why pitchers don’t often pitch 200 innings anymore. Shoot, they used to pitch 300 and that is way back in the rear-view mirror.
It’s no secret that the Dodgers could use a RH power bat. I will say that they have a lot of options to obtain one, including the pitchers I mentioned above and Willie Calhoun, Alex Verdugo, Andrew Toles, Trayce Thompson, Scott Van Slyke, Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Ethier.
I could see a huge blockbuster trade and roster turnover by July! This is the kind of stuff I love! A final question: Could Clayton Kershaw be part of a trade? I’m just sayin’….
Enjoy the Super Bowl! 34-31 Falcons. That’s my prediction.
Discussion (43)
Disagree, not disagreeable
So, I went back and read Dodger Therapy very carefully. His premise is that Friedman and Zaidi are incompetent and he will twist every fact to that end. If they had been picked lower than the Cubs by Fangraphs, he would have touted how big their payroll is and how Theo has done it better and is smarter, yada, yada, yada. I don’t hold Fangraphs in particular high esteem – it’s just another opinion.
I started to de-bunk what he said, step-by-step, but all has an element of truth built around twisted facts that I would have to spend an hour tearing it up… and he’s not worth that. Truth be told… he’s probably a Giants fan who loves to make Dodger fans miserable.
There is a lot to be decided – let’s see who the best 2B is: Peraza, Gordon or Forsythe. Let’s see what De Leon becomes. Let’s see what happens to Barnes and Kike this year. Hatcher too.
Finally, here’s how dumb he is: He insists on comparing Friedman with Epstein when both were given different mandates by ownership. It’s comparing apples to oranges. A valid comparison will occur in a few years.
HI MARK. ITS GREAT TO HAVE DODGERTALK BACK. THE BEST SITE FOR ALL THINGS DODGERS. I FEEL SO EXCITED THIS YEAR FOR MYBELOVED DODGERS. THANKS FOR ALLOWING ME TO POST MY FRIEND
Dee Gordon was traded for Austin Barnes, Chris Hatcher, Andrew Heaney and Kike Hernandez.
Heaney was then traded for Howie Kendrick.
Kendrick and Hernandez were a big part of a pennant run with the Dodgers and then Kendrick traded for Darrin Ruf and Darnell Sweeney.
Just so we are clear: Hernandez and Kendrick played keys roles in two NL West Championships for the Dodgers and now we have the following players left from that trade:
Ruf
Sweeney
Hernandez
Barnes
Hatcher
Who is Dee Gordon? The 2015 or 2016 version? Better yet, who are Ruf, Sweeney, Hernandez, Barnes and Hatcher?
There is a lot to be decided. Who is Andrew Heaney?
1. I like the fact that Romo was predicted to get a $14 million/2 year deal this offseason but he took a one year three million dollar deal to play for the team he grew up rooting for and to win another championship.
2. I find it incredible the comparisons DodgerIdiot makes between Friedman and Epstein and even more incredible that anyone even gives it an ounce credibility! His whole argument is so circular that you get dizzy even considering it. Look, there is no argument that Theo is an elite baseball guy, but quit building a strawman to compare him and Friedman. It’s totally asinine! I guess weak-minded people love that stuff. The National Enquirer proves as much!
It seems as though Romo will be wearing Dodger Blue as soon as he passes his physical. I just hope he will be as good as Blanton was last year but wss.
On other fronts, Romo is now a Dodger at $3 MM.
Freudy strikes again:
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https://dodgertherapy.wordpress.com/2017/01/27/the-slow-boat-is-painted-dodger-blue/
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“I hear a lot of questioning why Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi would deal the same blue chip they planned for “baseball’s best second baseman”, Brian Dozier, in a deal for Logan Forsythe. As I’ve pointed out, the Dodgers had Dee Gordon, then had Howie Kendrick, then had José Peraza, and then Howie again and still found a way to have no second baseman, necessitating moving José De León for one.”
What about a pitcher going 7 or 8 innings and a relief pitcher comes in gets one out and gets the win.
That needs to change.
Joc 5th best center fielder in MLB according to BR
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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2659816-br-mlb-300-ranking-the-top-25-center-fielders-of-2016
I don’t like most of your proposed new rules. On the intentional walk thing, does no one here remember Johnny Bench striking out on what was supposed to be an intentional ball in the world series?
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http://herosports.com/news/mens-baseball/mlb-to-change-intentional-walk-rule-so-here-are-the-10-most-incredible-intentional-walk-moments-in-baseball-history
Well, I was close on the score, but wrong about the winner. What a comeback by the Pats. Brady has to be in the discussion as to who is the best of all time.
How about awarding 1st base on an intentional walk without actually throwing the pitches. Saves time & pitches.
This one would be very difficult to manage: 2 DH’s who can each hit 3 times for players who do not have to come out of the game. If that DH were to strike out could he hit for the next batter and thus hit back to back to back?
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Also, if a pitcher can’t throw to first more than three times that really means he can only throw two times because if he throws three times the runner can then lead off half way to second base or more.
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Otherwise a good list to start the conversation for the next contract.
For the record:
I am in favor of a 20 second clock between pitches.
I am in favor of 2 DH’s whe can each hit 3 times for players who do not have to come out of the game.
I am in favor of expanding the rosters to 27.
I am in favor of electronic balls and strikes (sorry Yasmani).
I am in favor that a pitcher is only allowed to throw to 1B 3 times a batter.
I am in favor that any pitcher who comes into the game must pitch to 3 hitters.
I am in favor that the team with the best record gets home field advantage in the World Series – screw the All-Star Game.
Bums, while I may not like the changes, I do expect and will accept them. Would I prefer that there was no DH, yes. But I do understand why there is one, and I know that I will have to accept the DH in the NL someday. I would not be surprised to see the end of the DH in the NL and expansion of the roster to 26-27 at the next CBA. More specialization, more $$$$. There is no turning back now. Agents are going to push their players to push the union. It is only time. Will that make baseball better? Not IMO.
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I know my fellow trojan alums loved watching Adoree Jackson play defense/offense/special teams. I am sure Michigan fans felt the same way about Jabril Peppers. But the violence of the game dictates that players cannot possibly continue to play both ways all the time.
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How far do you want to take change? Sure I would rather watch Ethier hit more than Maeda. Why stop with just the DH? Why not have teams take a page out of football and have different offensive and defensive units. Wouldn’t you rather watch Manny Ramirez just hit and never play LF? How about Greg Luzinski? I loved watching Zoilo Versalles play SS, but I hated watching him hit. But that is not the game.
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I agree that there is an irony with the reduction of # of pitches as salaries increase. But ownership would rather have their pitchers throw 175-200 quality IP to increase the chances of completing the contract. My guess is that SF is hoping that Cueto gets through this year so he might opt out. He is one pitch away from the Giants having to suck up nearly $100M if he doesn’t make it through the year. Limiting the # of IP also increases the potential of more quality pitches in the September/October run. With Clayton out two months last year, tell me Dodger fans did not think that he still had plenty in the tank for NLCS Game 6.
If I never have to see a pitcher flail at a pitch again I will be happier.
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Would those that want to keep the purity in baseball by making the pitcher hit want to also have football players play both offense and defense?
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If the NL implemented the DH what would you miss most, the double switch? I don’t get excited watching the player that made the last out being switched out so that weaker hitting replacement player can hit in the pitchers spot.
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I would like to see Ethier hit instead of sitting on the bench because the NL doesn’t have the DH.
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There is an irony about wanting to reduce the number of pitches a $200,000,000 pitcher makes to try to help him pitch throughout his contract and paying that player $200,000,000 to sit on the bench 80% of the time.
Maybe people have crappy diets and their bodies break down quicker.
Maybe vaccinations have weakened the ligaments and tendons.
Maybe antibiotics have weakened the immune systems of athletes.
There might be a modicum of truth in it all, including taking the EASIEST path!
I don’t think it has anything to do with analytics. It has to do with what is EASIEST. Is it easier to draft, develop, maintain a pitcher who can go through the lineup 3-4 times or to find 5 guys who can throw 95 mph who each go an inning. It also happens to be the CHEAPIST. For a pitcher to go through a lineup 3 times, he has to be able to pace himself and to be able to change his original game plan in how he attacks certain hitters. If the young pitchers were EXPECTED to go deep, some would actually be able to do so. Active bullpens are here to stay, unfortunately, because of my basic premise that it is easier to find guys who CAN do it—-since most are failed starters. Makes for an ugly game. From the seventh inning on, most games are unwatchable. And that is when most are decided. Too bad. It’s like dumbing down in most of the areas of our lives. Just give into it. But, it is still baseball. Still the best game. I can’t wait for the football season to be over with today.
I know that prevailing wisdom is that pitchers lose effectiveness after the 2nd time through the lineup. I doubt that this was always true or that it would necessarily be true if pitchers were trained the way that they were trained in prior eras. It certainly doesn’t have to be true – I would rather have Clayton Kershaw on the mound in the 7th most games than almost any other pitcher.
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I am attaching a link to a cool article about Koufax and Drysdale:
http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2011/10/16/dynamic-duo-1959-1966-don-drysdale-sandy-koufax-pitched-dodgers-baseballs-summit/
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I remember reading an article years ago debating the relative merits of a 4 vs. 5 man rotation. Your 5th starter isn’t as good as the 1st 4 , so by giving that guy the ball every 5 days you deprive your other starters the opportunity to pitch. Koufax would average 41 starts – today Kershaw gets 33. Your 5th starter gets the ball 8 times instead of Kershaw. What kind of sense does that make? The same math holds true for starters 2, 3 & 4.
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If there is a significant drop off in effectiveness if a pitcher pitches every 4 days or a significant increase in injury risk, then I would understand, but I don’t believe this to be the case.
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I have the same issue with the 5 – 6 inning starter. While some pitchers would never be effective after the 5th or 6th, I suspect that the way that pitchers are trained, along with injury concerns from front offices, influences the late game effectiveness of many pitchers. Baseball is hardly a new game and there is enough history. Bill James noted the following in an article about 3 man rotations:
” That’s not a fantastic number, is it, 245 innings? 116 pitchers pitched 245 or more innings in a season in the 1950s, 189 in the 1960s, and 275 in the 1970s. This went down to 134 (pitchers pitching 245 innings) in the 1980s, 46 in the 1990s, and 14 in the first decade of this century.
The thing is, though, that this decrease in pitchers pitching 245 or more innings has not been accompanied by any obvious decrease in starting pitcher injuries.
Study here. . .this is a new study; I have done ones like it before. Not only has this decrease in innings pitched by starting pitchers not led to an obvious improvement in pitchers’ health, but the number of pitchers who are able to stay in rotation from season to season has actually decreased measurably. ”
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I don’t like – 7 – 8 man bullpens
5 inning starters
5th starters
too many platoons
too much defensive shifting
the DH
artificial turf
interleague play
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i don’t think that the game has been improved by any of the above
Hey Mark, so glad to see LA Dodger Talk back! I had grown weary of the constant bickering that seemed always be so negative at the other site. I love the rules you laid down and the focus seems to be back on simply talking Dodger baseball!