As we are getting ready to see who the Dodgers first opponent will be in the post season, it is extremely difficult for me to consume any negativity ascribed to the Dodgers after this season. No conditional statements…they were great. The best team in LA Dodgers history. I say LA Dodgers because the 1953 team that 105, did so with 8 less games. I still read from some how bad the bullpen is and yet while the bullpen did not perform at the elite level, the team won 106 games. Yes if Kenley had blown 2 less saves, LAD would have home field advantage throughout. I get that. The playoff bullpen could be made up with 4 starting pitchers (Maeda/Stripling/Urias/May or Gonsolin), and I agree that is not the basis for a great bullpen during the regular season. But this is not the regular season, so players are going to be asked to do tasks they would not normally do. How well they do them will dictate how far this team will go in the playoffs. I have confidence in the usage of starting pitchers in the playoffs. Would I rather have a lock down reliever, like say Will Smith? Sure, but we don’t. I will worry about the 2020 bullpen after the parade in Downtown LA this year.
This site has more upbeat fans than any other. sbuffalo stated “Friedman is the best in baseball and Dave Roberts is a special manager.” Those comments are getting a lot more ink this year, and it is great to see. I like tinkering so I suggest more transactions than Mark, but unless a player is actually traded, we have no idea as to what other teams may have valued that player. I am sure AF could have signed Bryce Harper for the mega millions and made a ton of fans happy. But Philadelphia did sign him, and just like he did in Washington, he came up short. The Nats essentially exchanged Victor Robles for Harper and added Patrick Corbin. But they made the playoffs and beat Philly to get the WC slot. How special that must have felt.
AF could have traded Belli for JT Realmuto, but decided against that. Great non-move for AF. I wanted Kluber, but Cleveland didn’t want to trade him. I have no idea how that would have worked out, but I am guessing that the return would have been too much for AF. Kluber was injured during a game, so we cannot assume that is what would have happened if he were a Dodger. I wanted DJLM. I am satisfied that the non-signing worked out for the Dodgers. If you believe the journalists, the Dodgers were looking to get Aaron Bummer from Chicago for Joc Pederson. Chicago wanted Joc but not at the expense of Bummer. There were other relievers involved (Jace Fry), but AF wanted Bummer, and the rumor was that Hahn said no. If the White Sox thought so highly of Bummer last winter, what do you think the cost will be this year. You may want players in a trade, but it always takes two teams to make a trade.
AF could have signed Manny Machado for mega millions, but just like Harper he is not playing for a playoff team. Signing Machado did not save Andy Green, and I doubt that Gabe Kapler gets retained. The respective GMs are covering up for their own misgivings.
Even though unarguably the best baseball player on the planet, Mike Trout, signed for 12 years, $426.5MM, the Angels are going nowhere. They still have Albert Pujols for 2 more years at $59MM ($24MM AAV), Justin Upton for 3 more years at $72MM, ($21.2MM AAV), Zach Cozart at $12.67MM for 1 year. Kole Calhoun has a club option at $14MM. Will they exercise that? With only 5 players with salary commitments (not Calhoun), they are already at a CBT threshold of $119MM. They have $89MM to play with not counting Calhoun’s $14MM. Will Arte Moreno go crazy again and give Gerrit Cole that $220MM + contract he will be asking for? Or does Cole look at the roster and say they are years away from truly contending. They only control Andrelton Simmons for one more year. Outside of Jo Adell, they have a poor farm system. They have 4 minor league prospects with a scouting grade of 50 or more. LAD has 13 (5 at 55+). Their current rotation is Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning, Shohei Ohtani, and …And now LAA has fired Brad Ausmus. Did Ausmus create this mess or did Billy Eppler and Moreno?
Another big contract that was signed was Nolan Arenado; eight years $260MM. 4th place in the NL West. Charlie Blackmon and German Marquez both signed a team friendly contract. But now what do the Rockies do? They are still committed to Wade Davis for 1 more year ($17.33MM AAV), Ian Desmond for 2 more years ($14MM AAV), Daniel Murphy for 1 year ($12MM), Bryan Shaw for 1 year ($9MM), and Jake McGee for 1 year $9MM.
On the other hand the Dodgers extended Clayton Kershaw for three years, and signed AJ Pollock for five years ($12MM AAV) and Joe Kelly for three years ($8MM AAV). Contrary to what many think, $12MM AAV is not a burdensome contract for AJ Pollock. What AF did was to draw from his own organization. The Dodgers got significant impact from 6 rookies (Alex Verdugo, Will Smith, Matt Beaty, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Gavin Lux). They also had 3 other rookies that helped (Edwin Rios, Kyle Garlick, and Josh Sborz). I think Rios and Garlick are good enough to be considered in a package (with an established ML player) for a significant upgrade this winter. I think Sborz gets a legit shot at the bullpen next year. His first two appearances were horrific, but 4 out of his last 5 were outstanding. He is not a late inning high leverage candidate, but he is a ML middle reliever who can go more than 1.0 IP. He showed enough to get a legit look in ST.
Two teams that sold out for a shot at the prize went home early this year; Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox. Two teams going in opposite direction as compared to the Dodgers. The Cubs fired their manager while the Red Sox fired their President of Baseball Operations. But now what do the teams do?
The Red Sox were $36MM over the CBT in 2019. They are making it a priority to get under the CBT in 2020 with very little wiggle room. They currently have 7 players committed to $151MM CBT, with the Red Sox extending Chris Sale for 5 years at $145MM (2020-2024); Xander Bogaerts 6 years at $120MM (2020-2025), and Christian Vazquez 3 years at $13.5MM (2019-2021). Last winter, they signed Nathan Eovaldi for 4 years at $68MM (2019-2022). They also have a dead contract with Dustin Pedroia with 2 more years at $13.75MM each. JDM can give them some breathing room if he believes he can make more than $62.5MM over the next three years, and opts out. I think that is a given, and I am sure that Boston is hoping that he does opt out, giving them an additional $22MM of AAV latitude, and to achieve their reported goal of getting below CBT.
The Red Sox farm system has one minor league prospect in the top 100 (Triston Casas 1B/3B #85). They do have 10 prospects with a scouting grade of 50 or better, but only 1 at 55. With limited free agent money and an average farm system, I do not see them in the market for high priced free agents or elite players in a trade. I am not saying that Andrew Friedman would even consider Boston, but you know they are going to ring his phone.
The Cubs are in a very similar situation. They are $34MM over the CBT in 2019. They have fixed contract costs of:
Jon Lester $25.833MM (1 year)
Jason Heyward – $86MM 4 years ($23MM AAV)
Yu Darvish – $81MM for 4 years ($21MM AAV)
Tyler Chatwood – $12.667MM (1 year)
Craig Kimbrel – $32MM for 2 years ($14.33MM AAV)
Kyle Hendricks – $54MM for 4 years ($13.875MM AAV)
David Bote – $15MM for 5 years ($3MM AAV)
Daniel Descalso – $2.5MM for 1 year.
The Cubs also have 2 players with options that will assuredly get picked up:
Anthony Rizzo – $14.5MM
Jose Quintana – $10.5MM
With those two options exercised, that will give the Cubs a CBT amount of $159.5MM for 10 players.
The Cubs have two minor league prospects ranked in the top 100. They have 10 prospects with grades of 50 or better, including 2 at 55.
Dave Roberts has now directed the Dodgers to 100 win seasons in two of his four years. He has made it to the NLCS three times in three tries, and made it to the WS in the last two years. But he needs to finish to be considered an elite manager. The team can win it all or get bounced in the first round.
Two ways of building a roster. The Cubs went away from building from within and are now drifting. Theo has done it twice before, so he is capable of turning the ship. The Red Sox have tried to spend their way to a championship the last several years and to trade highly sought after prospects for proven ML talent. They are young enough to still be relevant and build their farm system if they get the right general. With Andrew Friedman and Dave Roberts, the Dodgers are an elite team that has not yet closed the deal. I do not fear any team, but only the fan with the rosiest colored glasses can call the Dodgers a better team than the Astros going into the playoffs. But the best team does not always win. Will 2019 be the year for the Dodgers? I say yes!!!
Dodgers bullpen ERA #1 in NL and #4 in MLB
I get the optimism. I get the hope. What I don’t get is the swelled head that comes with success and the incessant comparisons and proof BEFORE the pudding is actually eaten!
Most star athletes on a team will tell you it is a team sport when reporters and fans try to put the victory and success on their shoulders. It is a natural humility and respect for the teamwork and time put into the work ethic. And, then there is luck, which seems to have nothing to do with anyone’s talent or desire.
There is a real reason that the Astros are favored to win the WS. This doesn’t mean that they will win it. There is no guarantee. Without the talent of any team coming to the forefront and taking charge, winning the WS will not be given to them. There are a million reasons and rationales that anyone can point to and create a narrative about. What i like to see from a team and their fans is some humility, not high fiving, chest slapping, bravado, or its opposite, perpetual negativity, which was so common on the blog that Mark always mentions and which has lost most of its participants. For me, it will be about who shows up at the right time, no matter what.
I think our success depends largely on the bat of Corey Seager. I don’t necessarily want to single him out as the only important piece, but he’ll need to come up big if we are to be successful. It just feels like he is peaking at the right time and it’s his time to show up large on the big stage.
11 and counting!
As AC says, the best team does not always win. Sometimes it is the luckiest team, sometimes it is the most talented team and sometimes the most deserved team. I do not know which team the Dodgers will be this year in the playoffs, but hope they will win playing as a confident , cohesive team with grace and good sportsmanship. I hope this makes some sense. My hopes are high as a long-time Dodger fan. Thank you AC for the article which made my morning coffee more enjoyable.
Does anyone else have the feeling that many aspects of this team may be coming together at just the right time?
I think that the biggest unknown is if we will have a productive Justin Turner. I also believe that our post season Hero’s will be many and varied as this will be truly a team victory.
Many of us here have been Dodger fan since the 50’s. We don’t have another 30 years to wait. So I am wishing all the World Series ending we deserve. Here’s hoping for the best post season ever.
Bob – agree with your sentiments regarding it all coming together.
For me, it will be our trio of Kershaw, Ryu & Buehler that will determine our destiny, together with Doc’s in game management.
Hoping May can be this year’s Hader.
All your comments above are what makes the playoffs so exciting. You never know who will step up from the shadows so to speak, and be a hero for their team like the Sox had last year. I love Cory Seager, he plays the game right and is a class act all the way. It would be great for him to be “the guy” this year. But, I could say the same for JT, Belli, and most of the roster for that matter. Here’s hoping that Doc’s hunches all work out and Jansen has a magical run, and I would love to see one or more, of the rookies win a game or two with a walk off! That would be awesome.
Spokane Bob, I feel exactly the same as you do. AC did a nice job pointing out the perils of signing large contracts and I agree for the most part. But, in the case of the Phillies and Padres, I think the jury is still out. Both teams, IMO needed a splash to generate interest from the fans. They also needed a cornerstone player to build around. So, the jury is out. In the case of the Astros, they used their deep farm system to buy their current rotation, which is incidentally the best rotation on the AL side of the playoffs. The Yankees built their vaunted bullpen on free agency. We plugged a couple of holes via free agency. Time will tell what works and what doesn’t. The Red Sox are suffering a little bit now, but they have a knack for a quick turnaround and have 3 pretty recent rings to count on their fingers.
Back to coming together, or flipping the switch… It certainly looks like we’re about to start playing our best baseball of the year. Seager, Pollock and Pederson are hot. Smith is starting to look good again. Belli sucks with a 900 Ops, I’ll take that sucking anytime. The big three in the rotation had great final tuneups and Rich Hill hasn’t allowed a run in his last two outings. The bullpen looks deep, energized, rested and infallible right now with weapons on both sides of the rubber. Muncy, Freese and Turner look like they’re ready to contribute and are hopefully just a couple of games away from carrying the torch.
To me, the only question marks are …
Is Lux going to hit enough to justify his glove in the field?
Will Turner, Freese and Muncy heal enough to make an impact throughout the post-season?
Does Kenley have enough to get outs at the end of some tight games?
Is Doc going to play Kike and CT3 too much?
Can CK avoid his yearly post-season meltdowns?
If we get a little luck, we’re going to come out victorious.
Should Lux start instead of Freese? Stats say no. I thought Dave Roberts babied Freese during the regular season to be able to have Freese starting in the post season.
Should Jansen be closing games in the post season? Stats aren’t clear on this one.
It would be moronic if Dave Roberts started Hernandez at all in the post season.
And you have an insight to David Freese’s Medical Records? Please share it, because Roberts does, and unless you have access to said Medical Records, I find that statement ludicrous.
What do you mean Mark? If Freese is healthy enough to start at 1B he should and Muncy at 2B instead of Lux at 2B.
Freese has difficulty walking after some games. How was he “babied?” Can he play in back-to-back games? I am not sure.
Sorry Mark. Wrong word to use I guess. Ultimately I’m hoping Dave Roberts protected Freese in order to be able to use Freese as much as possible in the post season.
😉
This biggest thing in question is defense and Muncy’s arm. The next biggest thing in question is Freese’s health and can he handle playing every day in the playoffs. If it’s me, I start off with Lux against the righty with Muncy at 1B and Freese on the bench, just like they’ve been doing down the stretch. Against the lefty, Muncy at 2B and Freese at 1B.
But, yes Lux is a top concern. But, his glove plays and his bat has been very good in streaks.
Nothing at all against Lux, I like Lux and I’m predicting a big 2020 out of him. But I think we will agree to disagree. Freese’s OPS against righties is 1172, I want him in there against righties. If he is healthy. I don’t know Freese’s condition. But now is the time to use him as much as possible.
I’m with you on Freese. He has somewhat serious reverse splits (.361 vs righties (61 ab) – .287 vs lefties (101 ab). So it’s hard not to like him in there against right handed pitching. However if Lux platoons with Muncy at second, Lux hits much better against righties leaving Muncy in versus lefties where he has reverse splits. Should be interesting
Thanks AC for the article. Well done. No team is perfect. The Dodgers certainly have some players they can trade this winter. Rios, Barnes and Garlick need an opportunity with another team. I hope Ryu signs a friendly contract with the Dodgers. He certainly is going to get a lot of money from another team. I do not see a place for Stripling as a Dodger. For starting pitchers next year you have Kershaw, Beuhler, Maeda, May, Gosolin and Urias. Ryu, Hill and Stripling as possibiliies. We have four outfielders and room for three. I think they will sign Marftin to a one year contract to support Smith. The infield looks solid for next year with Turner, Seager, Lux and Muncy. The bull pen will be a plan in progress each year.
I don’t have and opinion one way or the other but saw this on MLB Trade Rumors
Reds Will Not Retain Hitting Coach Turner Ward
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
. . . President of baseball operations Dick Williams thanked Ward in a statement but explained that, “as we reflected on this season, it became clear that we lacked the alignment we were seeking with our offensive approach.” . . .
Unquestionably, the Dodgers had a superb regular season. I don’t know that this makes them the best Dodgers team ever, I would pick 1963, with impregnable pitching, or 1953, just based on ltheir talent and success. 1962, if Koufax had not gotten hurt. . But it can be debated. What I do not agree with is the “no one can possibly question or criticize this season’s results, because we won so many games and dominated a weak five-team division.” Note how many games the Astros and Yankees won. There are some very weak teams in baseball now, and so there are more teams with 90+ wins now, when there weren’t nearly as many in even the previous decade.
The goal of a baseball franchise, particularly one in the second largest market in the country, and with 4 million in attendance, should be to win the title. It is hard to do, obviously, but someone manages to do it each season. If we don’t win it all, it certainly doesn’t make the season a failure, but it doesn’t make it a great success, either. Why can’t the Dodgers win a title? Bad luck? It’s all a crapshoot? No. Baseball is less short-term predictable than other sports, but the better team very often wins the title. If the Astros win again, it is because they built a better roster, and were twice willing to spend a lot of money to get a key pitcher at the deadline.
If we agree that the goal must be to win a championship, then the franchise must be judged on that metric. Not one every year, that would be ridiculous. But as many as anyone else in baseball, that is reasonable. If we cannot, then we have to look at the goals and actions of the ownership as the natural cause. Let’s all hope for the best, and realize that there is luck involved, but that baseball is certainly not just about good luck, it is about having the strongest roster. As I’ve said before, there can always be one or two teams who just are willing to spend or risk more in a given season, and that ‘s all it takes to lose out to one of them. Some other teams may take a bad risk, and we can laugh and say, they were foolish; but there still are the couple that make good risks and end up better, and that’s what we have to surmount in any season. Next year, it might be the Yankees, or Braves, or someone else. To be the best, you have to be determined to be the best, and do everything reasonably possible to achieve that. I don’t think we have done that, but no one can argue with our regular season success. The competition from the American League teams is another matter, though, and overcoming them is necessary to winning titles.
I think the ultimate goal of any team is to win championships and build the farm at the same time which is very hard to do. This is where I give the front office of the Dodgers a lot of credit. 7 consecutive playoff appearances while also building the farm.
Counselour,
I must object to your following statement: “If the Astros win again, it is because they built a better roster, and were twice willing to spend a lot of money to get a key pitcher at the deadline”.
I think it needs to be re-written to include facts, not in evidence. First, let me establish the evidentiary foundation.:
1. From 2009 to 2014, the Astros never reached .500.
2. In 2011, 2012, 2013 they last over 100 games every season. In fact, they lost 324 games during that span.
3. Finally, in 2015 and 2016, they finished barely over .500.
4. The six years that the Astros “tanked” enabled them to hoard top draft picks, trade for prospects (like Josh Fields for Yordon Alvarez while the Dodgers were trying to win) and amass a plethora of talent in their farm system.
5. From 2009 to the present, the Dodgers have been over .500 every year, except one (2010) and have won 7 straight NL West titles.
6. Due to winning and not drafting high, the Dodgers did not have access to the TOP 5 picks as the Astros did FOR YEARS!
7. Due to blowing it up and re-building, the Astros had a lot of young and cost-controlled players.
8. So, when they traded for Verlander, Cole, and Greinke, they were able to do so because of all their young and cost controlled players who gave them lots of financial flexibility.
9. In 2017 (the year they acquired Verlander), the Astros Opening Day Payroll was $124,000,00. The Dodgers Opening Day Payroll was $241,000,000.
10. In 2018, the Astros Opening Day Payroll with Gerritt Cole was $160,000,000. The Dodgers payroll was at $187,000,000 in a year they announced they had to get under the Luxury Tax Threshold.
11. In 2019, the Astros Opening Day Payroll was $158,000,000 and they were able to get Zach Greinke. The Dodgers Opening Day Payroll was $40 million more.
12. Andrew Friedman is trying to rebuild the farm and get in a position where they have young, cost-controlled players like the Astros, but they did this while winning. Never tanking!
So, for your statement to be correct, it actually should read: “If the Astros win again, it is because they built a better roster, and were twice willing to spend a lot of money because they were in a position to do so due to having a dramatically lower payroll to get a key pitcher at the deadline”.
… and that is an entirely different scenario!
You stated…“So, for your statement to be correct, it actually should read: “If the Astros win again, it is because they built a better roster, and were twice willing to spend a lot of money because they were in a position to do so due to having a dramatically lower payroll to get a key pitcher at the deadline”. I agree with that statement, but unfortunately too many believe that the Dodgers should have an unlimited budget. Because of incentive clauses to Kershaw and Maeda, the Dodgers are projected to be $3MM to $4MM above the CBT, and will be assessed accordingly.
Let’s also remember that even though Houston will be paying “only” $20MM of Greinke’s contract, it also cost them 1B/OF Seth Beer (AZ #4), RHP JB Bukauskas (AZ #11), RHP Corbin Martin (AZ #12), and utility inf/of Josh Rojas (AZ ML roster). That would be the equivalent of Jo Jo Gray/Dennis Santana or Mitchell White/DJ Peters/Omar Estevez. Would those thinking the Dodgers should have gone after Greinke be willing to give that package and pay $20MM for two more years? Greinke is 7-6 with a 4.38 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, and a slash line of .264/.328/.471/.799 against the Dodgers. I’ll take my chances against Greinke. Cole is not better than Greinke against the Dodgers…3-2, 5.53 ERA, 1.402 WHIP, .293/.337/.437/.774. Miley could be the most effective against LAD. I like the Dodgers LH dominant bats against the Astros RH dominant pitching.
It is also a question as to whether Greinke had the Dodgers on his limited no trade list.
The heck with Greinke!
Mark, all fair points, obviously. And I am not advocating that the Dodgers do what Houston did to become a power. But I will say that each season is its own story; it’s almost like “play it as it lies” with regard to how teams are set up to compete in that one season. The hard part is to be the best team in a given season. Last year it was Boston. This year, probably Houston. It’s very hard to beat out all the other teams, but somehow you have to do that in a discrete season. Houston may fall back in a couple of years, but then we will have other challengers. When teams can go “all in” in a given season, it may get them a title or two, even if they mortgage future seasons. We have to surmount that, too, at least in some seasons. What if the Yankees get Rendon and then trade a couple of their good hitters and minor leaguers for a top pitcher? What if Atlanta’s young players continue to develop,, and they also go all-out for a couple more pieces? There are always threats in a given season, even if some of those are not on a path to stay strong long-term.
I thought of an analogy which obviously is far from perfect , but still relevant. Let’s say you are in a big poker tournament, where the big prize is the championship, and where even finishing second is not very rewarding compared to that. Now, some of the players have limited bankrolls (let’s say you can re-buy in if you lose all your chips in this tournament), so they have less of a chance. And then there are other players who will take a major risk and go all-in on a few hands; and maybe they figure wrongly, or aren’t lucky, and they are out. And you are still in. But then there are a couple of players who are very good, and they are willing to take more risks than you are. And one of them wins a couple of very big hands while you do not, because you are cautious, and do not want to do that unless you are sure that the percentages are in your favor, not just for this tournament, but for having funds for the next one. This player who wins the tourney may not be the best player, but he played “high risk, high reward,” and it paid off. Next tournament, someone else might do it. It only takes one in a given tournament to rise to the top.
To get back to baseball, it is my general thought that the way you win a title is to build a strong corps of good young players, and then take some risks by perhaps overpaying for (in terms of what you have to give up) a couple of key outside pieces to get over the top. Because of the way that baseball is set up, there is usually the chance for contender to significantly supplement at the trade deadline or through free agency. Standing pat (not saying that we always do that) is riskier because of those opportunities for other clubs which want to take the gamble for short-term reward. Houston took a monetary risk with Verlander, and probably overpaid for Greinke, just as Boston overpaid in total to get Sale, Martinez, Price, Kimbrel over the previous couple of seasons. Boston is now paying for that, but they got the title. It only takes one competitor like that each season to thwart your title ambitions.
The best team in the regular season may be Houston but the Dodgers will be the favorites to win the NL and are more than capable of beating any AL team. Can we play our best baseball in the biggest moments? October will tell us! Can’t wait!
Great season and 12-7 against the giants,great,now the playoffs, let´s see what happens.
It begins tonight when we will see who we will be playing on Thursday. Wishing the team to do well and especially all the rookies I have been rooting extra for. Hope they, Smith, Lux, Beaty, and May make the team, also Ferguson. Very excited. Go Blue.
In my opinion, Ferguson should not be on the post season roster unless the Dodgers want to carry someone on the roster that could go multiple innings in a blowout game.
This morning I was enjoying AC’s post and thinking about how magical this season has been. Whether we have the best team or not doesn’t really matter to me. In my mind, I picture this team and season as being a number of different players impersonating Andy Kaufman singing the theme from Mighty Mouse: “here I come to save the day!”
“He gets the situation well in hand”! Ha. I can see the cartoon 2D2.
And the music is ringing in my mind and ears.
Above William stated, “Baseball is less short-term predictable than other sports, but the better team very often wins the title.” I am not sure what your definition of very often is, but if it is 4 times out of the last 10 years, you would be correct.
2009 – NYY (MLB #1) beat Philadelphia (NL #2)
2013 – Boston (MLB #1) beat St. Louis (also MLB #1)
2016 – Cubs (MLB #1) beat Cleveland (AL #2)
2018 – Boston (MLB #1) beat Dodgers (NL #3)
But that means that MOST of the time over the last 10 years the best record in MLB did not win the WS. Only once in the last ten years have the best in the NL played against the best in the AL (2013). This was offset the next year when two wild card teams played in the WS (Giants beat KC).
Only one other year did the MLB #1 record play in the WS and lost (Dodgers 2017). Only one other time did a league best record get to and win the WS, KC in 2015, but they beat the NL #5 team (Mets). There were three NL teams with a better record than KC in 2015.
It may be more correct to say that quite often the best teams do not get out of the divisional series.
2011 – Philadelphia MLB #1 lost in NLDS to St. Louis
2012 – Nationals MLB #1 lost in NLDS to St. Louis.
2014 – Dodgers MLB #1 (tie) lost in NLDS to St. Louis.
2014 – Angels MLB #1 (tie) lost in ALDS to KC.
2015 – Cardinals MLB #1 lost in NLDS to Cubs
2016 – Rangers – AL #1 lost in ALDS to Toronto
Based on the last 10 years it is actually more likely that the team with with the best record in MLB will get beat in the divisional series than go on to win the WS.
In 1988, the Dodgers beat a team with a 6 game better record in the NLCS (Mets). NYM beat the Dodgers 10 games to 1 in 1988. LAD then went on to beat the A’s in the WS, a team with 10 more wins than the Dodgers.
In 2004 (a personal favorite), the wild card Boston Red Sox beat the AL best team (NYY) after falling behind 3 games to 0. The BoSox then went on to sweep the Cardinals in the WS, the team with the best record in MLB, 7 games better than Boston.
Let’s please rid ourselves of the notion that the team with the best ML record is more likely than not to win the WS. It is not true (at least in the last 10 years – or 1988 – or 2004). The Dodgers are set up very nicely to beat the RH pitching dominant Astros if they do in fact meet in the WS. But they could also get beat by the Nats in the NLDS.
AC, I was not referring to the team with the best overall regular season record. I was thinking “the team which when all the games are played, is generally looked at as the best team that year.” Now, I completely admit that this runs a risk of being circular; that some people will always contend that the team which wins is the best team, because they won, so what does that prove? True enough, but I think that after all the games are played, reasonable fans can assess which team “should” have won, because they were best suited for both the regular season and playoffs, which are not the same.
At least one of the Giants teams which won it all was probably the best team, when you look at what a strong bullpen they had, and a great tactician to use it. Even if someone does want to use that kind of “gestalt/eye test,” we can agree that best regular season record does not mean best team. Easier division, easier league, all matter, within a range of games. When KC won it all, after the year where they very surprisingly got to the World Series and lost in seven, I was not at all surprised, I thought that they were very well set up to win it, even if a couple of teams might have piled up better records. The only Dodgers team in the recent era which I thought looked like the best team going into the playoffs, was the 2017 club, and not just because it had the best record. I don’t think this one is, though the late season play has made me more optimistic about our chances. I think that Houston has the stronger lineup, the deeper starting pitching, and the better closer. But if keep our players healthy, and Hill can pitch well throughout the playoffs, then we are very close to Houston.
Here’s what it all boils down to. It’s one word: EXECUTION!
Winner, winner chicken dinner! That’s the key. Most managers will look like master tacticians if the players execute!
While we’re killing time. How much money comes off the Dodger books in 2020? I know Hill and Ryu come off. Also Bailley’s money? What is our projected payroll with the guys we have signed. I think we have some room to go after a free agent or two
Quick back of the envelope calculations from COT’s work sheet
Committed money (CBT) 2020 ~$104M + early/arb eligible players (?$34M) + $15M player benefits
2020 CBT is $208M
That would leave roughly $55M room available for FA’s and raises/possible extensions to current players
Real rough figures but probably in the ball park (see what I did there?)
Thx SoCal
I’m just being realistic and not trying to be a downer, but screw the Astros and Yankees right now. We have two hills to climb before we go to the mountain. The 5 game series is always sketchy, because you can run into a hot wildcard team. The NLCS is not promised either, because the Braves are decent, and the Cards, well, let’s just say we don’t have good play-off history with them lately. Let’s take one series at a time, and Mark hit it big time on the head, EXECUTE! Say what you want about some of Roberts moves in the last two Series, but alot of them would have panned out if the players would have executed, which they didn’t. Both the Astros and Sahx executed when they needed to. Everyone to a man and woman on this site knows that we have the most talent top to bottom. But we have to step up and get it done or go home. Simple as that. It starts with the 5 game series. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Ok, who else laughed out loud when Yasmani Grandal hit that 2 run hr off of Scherzer!!!
And he’s caught all the pitches thrown to him too!
I was excited when the Dodgers traded for Yasmani and I thought he could become the best catcher in baseball. He never achieved that in LA and his Post-season meltdown got his ticket punched out of LA, But, I am happy for him this year. He was arguably the best catcher in baseball this year. He played 153 games and had 513 AB’s. The only catcher with more was Realmuto (25 more). Look at his rank among catchers:
HR – #1
OB%- #1
Walks – #1
OPS – #1
RBI – #2
Doubles – #2
Add in that he’s one of the best framers and you have the #1 catcher in baseball…. warts and all. He also only had 8 PB and was near the top in Fielding,
It was time to move on, but the vitriol by Dodger Fans towards him was insane.
I think it sucks that he couldn’t do that with us. He was beyond horrible in the post season with us….107/.264/.200/.464 career post season, all with us. He deserved the vitriol.
Taking nothing away from Grandal, as I thought he was good too. But, he his hitting in a hitters park and don’t think for a minute he did not take that into consideration in signing with the Brewers. He wants his next paycheck to be his best ever.
So are we rooting for the Brewers?
I think the easiest path to the championship is:
Brewers
Braves
Twins
Because of pitching, although pitching stats say Twins are slightly better in pitching than the Yankees. I just don’t want to lose #9 to the Yankees.
Got to beat Corbin on Thursday. Hope Turner, Freese and Pollock are healthy and ready
This will be a difficult series with the Nationals. They are not as good as we are, but they have won nine games in a row, just won a last-ditch victory, and are a franchise which has never won a playoff series and just did. This makes them dangerous, like when the Royals, who were barely in the playoffs, somehow rallied to beat the A’s in the Wildcard game, and rode that to a 7th game in the World Series. Plus, Scherzer did not pitch well tonight, and you know he will rebound with a big effort. So I think that we are going to have to go five games to win this, and I hope I am wrong and that we are just better and beat them.
Gotta say I was hopeful that the Brewers would hold on to the lead tonight – so their relief ace stunk up the place tonight. It can happen to anyone.
Good that the Nats had to burn both Scherzer and Strasberg tonight, but they will have a few days to rest.
No doubt that the Blue will have to battle their way back to the Series. They have the personnel to do it. And the battle will be entertaining. Will this be the year?
Like I said before, forget about how we stack up against the Astros and Yankees, take care of business in the NL first. We got a very emotionally high Nats team on Thursday night. Can’t say how important it is to smack them in the mouth on Game 1 and let them know we aint the Brew Crew, we are the friggin Dodgers and we are going to come after your asses every friggin inning,we are going to drive up the count on your pitchers, we are relentless, and you will wilt under the pressure of our at bats. Game 1 is huge to stop their momentum in their tracks and give them some reality. This is when the rubber meets the road. East coast media is already falling all over themselves saying how different and great this Nationals team is. I am calling this shot, this series is a huge gut check for us. We get past the Nats, we are going all the way. We have so much damn talent up and down the roster. Once again, like Mark said. EXECUTE!!!
The Nationals did what we often do, come back! But I would prefer not to comeback but to strike first and furiously. My fear is not Scherzer, but Strasburg. Strasburg is one of the top pitchers in the league and he dominated us last time we met. He did his job in relief against the Brewers and gave a chance to a very hot team to take the victory, which they did, with flying colors. Their MVP came through to load the bases and the next batter sealed the deal. Classic Dodger rally. It should be an exciting series.
Brewers BP petered out and their hitters couldn’t get them enough cushion. Seen that before somewhere. C’mon Dodgers, get hot and stay hot.
Hopefully not EXECUTED!
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/dodgers-deciding-rotation-for-nlds
I’m not at all sure about the projected lineup of Starting Pitchers.
Surely Ryu needs to start at home where he is so dominant, and it’s suggested that CK is starting game 2 so he can then Start a possible game 5?
Surely we would rather let Ryu pitch 2 games at home – he wouldn’t even need to travel to Washington.
I would go Ryu, Beuhler, Kershaw, Hill and have Ryu & Beuhler available for a game 5.
Ryu has been much better at Dodger Stadium throughout his career, and very good this year.
Don’t get it.
Couldn’t agree more, Watford. Ryu needs and deserves to start at home. I like Buehler and CK following it up but will Doc shuffle the deck starting CK in game 3? Methinks he will likely go with CK.
Ryu-10-1, 0.943 WHIP, 1.93 ERA at home. 4-4, 1.075 WHIP, 2.72 ERA away.
Buehler-6-1, 0.887 WHIP, 2.86 ERA at home, . 8-3 1.198 WHIP, 3.66 ERA away.
CK-10-2, 1.101 WHIP, 2.89 ERA at home. 6-3, 0.965 WHIP, 3.21 ERA away.
All the pitchers are better at home. If we take both games at home, it could be CK and Ryu away, with Buehler starting again at home. They can always change up the pitchers away depending on how the series is going. Lots of choices.
Is Mark ok? Hope nothing has happened to him.
DBM – it’s the lull before the storm.
Bit of pre match nerves. Same thing happens every year on here until the action starts….
Ok. Thanks Watford. Was just worried. By the way, why do you think some people thought the Brewers would be a better opponent then Washington?
I’m indestructible! 😉