The Plan May Be Unfolding…

Posted By on February 10, 2023

It appears that Andrew Friedman wasn’t not just posturing as I thought when he said he wasn’t worried about the CBT. After adding journeyman outfielder, David Peralta yesterday and another $6 or $7 Million onto the payroll, it’s clear Friedman is not concerned with re-setting the CBT. It’s not the last time I was wrong. I am, however, always looking for the rest of the story or for the other shoe to drop. To me, this is a precursor to something bigger. Much bigger!

Here’s what I think (and part of the reason is I want to think it): I think that Pittsburgh has backed off their asking price for Bryan Reynolds – they know he is adamant about being traded, and the Pirates have dropped their “ask” to something more reasonable. That ask may be something like Ryan Pepiot, Mike Busch, James Outman, and Dalton Rushing. It’s still a big ask, but one that really doesn’t gut the farm. I’d like to keep Rushing out of it, and use Leonard or Vivas instead. Or… Devin Mann or Hunter Feddducia maybe?

Here’s my thinking: CT3 and David Peralta will platoon in LF, while CT3 plays every other place that he plays as well. That should be a productive platoon that could produce 25 to 30 HR. One thing about David Peralta – he can flat-out hit LH Pitchers…. well, usually. Last year he only hit .267 against them, but RVS and Company may likely fix that. In 2018, he hit .318 against LHP, with .946 OPS and 22 HR. Interestingly, RVS was with the Diamondbacks in 2018 when Peralta had his career year. So there is that!

I didn’t believe Andrew Friedman was serious about not staying under the CBT. I was wrong, But I don’t believe he is serious about playing Steven Duggar, Bradley Zimmer, James Outman, or Jason Heyward in Centerfield. I do believe that he will try and trade for Bryan Reynolds, and he might as well do it now. This team with Reynolds would be pure championship caliber:

  1. Betts RF
  2. Lux SS
  3. Freeman 1B
  4. Martinez DH
  5. Muncy 3B
  6. Smith C
  7. Reynolds CF
  8. Vargas 2B
  9. Peralta/Taylor LF

That is a fearsome lineup. It could be the best in baseball. I’d rather Lux hit leadoff and Betts hit second, but that is me. The Pirates get Busch, Pepiot, and Outman.. all of whom will be starters. The Dodgers get a Centerfielder whose best years may be ahead of him. He has a career .842 OPS. I think the Dodgers can help him become a Superstar! (Cody who?)

YES, it is a lot of prospect collateral to pay, but CF is a place of need. James Outman may be a nice CF’er, but Bryan Reynolds is a borderline superstar, and with the best farm systems in baseball, the collateral is not that big of a deal. Andy Pages takes over LF in 2024!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rYtzQdBWFs

This article has 74 Comments

  2. Outman will be the CF and I have a funny feeling either a trade will happen to platoon with Peralta or the powers that be are seriously considering DeLuca to platoon with Peralta and that will make Taylor what he pretty much always has been a ultility outfielder and insurance IF Outman fails to hit LHP good enough.

    I always thought Thompson was an odd man on the roster because he doesn’t hit either RHP or LHP good except last year against RHP and I never thought Heyward and Busch would make the roster. This move validates my prediction about Busch not making the roster and either Heyward or Thompson not making the roster and I bet the other one won’t make the roster either because of what I said in the first paragraph.

    I don’t see a trade for Reynolds, too much in prospects going to the Pirates in that trade and it’s not AF’s style.

    Starters:
    Smith
    Freeman
    Muncy
    Lux
    Vargas
    Betts
    Outman
    Martinez
    Peralta with a platoon partner
    Bench: Barnes, Rojas, Taylor and one of the platoon.

      1. Then who is going to platoon with Peralta? Heyward and Thompson don’t hit LHP. Unless it’s Taylor with 1 of 2 guys that are nothing to write home about. That’s possible but there is better options.

        1. The Peralta signing really came out of, yeah, left field. I don’t recall anyone here suggesting this possibility.
          Taylor was terrible last season, but if he can find the old mojo he could partner with Peralta in LF.
          I hope Outman gets a fair shot in CF, but now I have my doubts. Peralta more directly blocks Busch in LF–but both rookies now could wind up in OKC.
          Then again, a trade for Reynolds seems plausible.
          If the Dodgers do snag Reynolds, I think he’d bat ahead of Lux because he is simply the more proven hitter, with more power. The fact that Reynolds is a switch hitter–and good from both sides–is another reason.
          Lux still needs to show more to justify a spot up high on this team. I still like Freddie batting second because he’s clearly the best hitter on the team, with the highest OBP. He’s a good baserunner too.
          Reynolds could slot 3rd: his stats in 2022 are similar to Will Smith’s, and I assume he’s faster. So maybe….
          Betts
          Freeman
          Reynolds
          Smith
          Muncy
          JDM
          Lux
          Vargas
          Peralta/Taylor

          (If JDM rakes, he can switch spots with Smith.)

          “Let the kids play” would basically get down to Vargas at 2B and Lux getting his shot at SS–and we’re still not sure Lux will succeed.

  3. Man, this WOULD be a fearsome lineup.

    Losing Outman would hurt BAD. He’s likely going to be as good as Reynolds…. just not right away…..and of course since he’s a prospect possibly never!
    If it would cost Outman, Pepiot, Busch AND Rushing I don’t know if AF would pull the trigger.

  4. Mark

    “Bryan Reynolds is a borderline superstar”

    You said a .900 and above OPS is a superstar and .800 and above is a star, .842 is not a borderline superstar, that’s the same as saying .742 is borderline a star. AF doesn’t give away that many good prospects for .842 OPS.

  5. Mark- Why trade all those prospects for Reynolds & still have Bradley (Zimmer?) playing CF & batting 7th?

    1. I saw that too and wondered who Bradley is. Personally, I do not think Zimmer has a snowball’s chance in hell of breaking camp with the Dodgers. With Peralta and Heyward, who are both better hitters than he is, in camp, there is just no way he cracks the 26-man roster. I do not think they made this move so they could just trade a handful of prospects to Pittsburgh for Reynolds. And I do not think Pittsburgh is under any pressure or obligation to move Reynolds before the deadline. Everything said is supposition and guess work. There is absolutely no buzz anywhere about the Pirates lowering their asking price or even being in talks with other teams.

  6. Hey and. The number 10 is available for Reynolds in a Dodgers uniform. It just sounds perfect. I think I’ve been saying to do that all winter. But now you agree with me Timmons and I agree with you. Do the Trade now. So these guys get used to playing together in spring time and get that team goal all together in spring training.

  7. Reynolds is not a borderlne superstar in my view. Way too much to give up for him.
    I am really surprised the Dodgers are going over the cap with THIS move. If they do not want to reset the luxury tax why only Peralta ? Are we suddenly cash strapped ?

    Technical question: When does a team have to be under the luxury tax ? At the beginning of the season or after its conclusion ?

    Go Dodgers”””””””””””””””””””””””2

    1. Ram, it is calculated at the end of the year. They are over the cap now but could be under or paying less of a penalty than they are in for now. Padres are way over. So are the Mets. All this talk about Reynolds gives me a headache. He is a decent player, but certainly not a centerpiece. And he is a marginal center fielder. Thompson, Outman and Taylor are all better out there than he is. So is Zimmer. The problem with the CBT comes when you spend multiple years over and the penalty’s get bigger. The third year can be a mother.

  9. For the record, I would give up Busch (if Vargas takes to 2B, he is a man without a position), Pepiot (the Dodgers have plenty of pitchers), and Outman (whom I still think is a 4th OFer at best). I prefer not to give up Rushing as I think he will be a beast.

    … and Eric, what do you mean that making a big trade is not Friedman’s style? Remember the big trade he made when he came to the Dodgers? Remember the Manny Machado Trade? He does it when it makes sense!

    1. But he gave up marginal prospects in those moves. Even the Mookie trade. I liked Verdugo but never thought much at all of Jeter Downs. What we gave up for Machado was, well, insignificant at the time and downright laughable in hindsight. The key pieces in that trade had decent seasons in high A and had barely played in AA when they were traded. Similar with Darvish. An A ball player and a decent AAA hitter who played god awful defense.

      The group you are proposing is a much better prospect hall. Granted, Reynolds wouldn’t be a rental. But it’s just not AFs style to drop three top 10 prospects and number 15 (depending on which list you’re looking at) in one trade. That is unless AF thinks they are massively overrated.

      Which also makes me wonder why anybody trades with AF to begin with. Given history, if AF trades prospects it is almost certainly because he thinks the baseball world dramatically over rates them. Ironically, the centerpiece of the Machado trade (Diaz) is back in AAA for the Dodgers after Baltimore released him. They really got hosed by AF. Almost as bad as Boston. Jeter Downs can’t hit his weight. In AAA! And Verdugo doesn’t look like he will get near what we all thought was his ceiling. I think the Dodgers will make a move before the deadline. But I doubt it will be for Reynolds. Just like the signing today, it will probably be something none of us see coming.

      1. A Reynolds deal should definitely NOT include Rushing.
        I would rather keep Outman too. Caught a recent interview with him, and he seems to have a great attitude and work ethic, so his improvement could continue. Perhaps he’s a late bloomer like Max. If he cuts down on the Ks, he could be an all-star calibre player in CF. (Joc with better D works for me.)
        If the Dodgers do snag Reynolds–and the idea is growing on me–he’d be an adequate option in CF this season and could move to LF in ’24. Maybe Outman can apprentice as 4th OF.
        Perhaps the bid could start with Busch and Pepiot and add a few younger sweeteners who may or may not succeed. This would be a bit like the Mookie deal.
        When the Dodgers traded for Machado, Yusniel Diaz was regarded as the hottest prospect in the deal–a guy with a very high ceiling. Outman was pretty unknown beyond Cal State Sacramento.
        But Diaz never fulfilled that promise, and so he’s back with the Dodgers. Maybe he’ll find work at OKC.. Or not. He’s the same age as Outman, I think.
        Of course, I would include Rushing, Busch and Outman if we’re talking about Ohtani….

  10. It’s hard to have a opinion when no one has any idea what Friedman might do next. Nobody saw mookie coming. Didn’t hear once anyone mentioning signing Peralta. One thing seems certain is nothing has changed in there being reluctant to rely on rookies. Wouldn’t shock me if they traded for a SS or second baseman and reeled back the opportunity for Vargas. I believe smith was last homegrown position player to really get a chance. Outman and Busch are at the point either play em or trade them. I’d bet on the latter

    1. Oh it is easy to have an opinion, trouble is nine times out of ten you are going to be dead wrong. I doubt they trade for a SS. I think if they feel Lux cannot handle the job full time, then they would make some sort of move, but waiting and maybe going after Ahmed Rosario in the offseason is the route they might take.

  11. All this talk about how stocked the farm is and not one has made the show in a mighty long time and for me personally it’s a letdown

    1. You must have forgot about Lux, May, Buehler, Smith, Ferguson, Gonsolin, Grove, Jackson, Outman, Pepiot, Urias, and the ones ready to step up now? When you have a loaded lineup, it’s hard for rookies to break in. Even Vesia and Graterol were minor leaguers even though they were acquired in trades.

  12. I was of the opinion that Bryan Reynolds was a below-average runner, but after looking it up, he is faster than Cody Bellinger.

    When I say he is a borderline star, I am not looking at just the stats. I consider that he was in a poor system of developing players, and I believe the Dodgers will help him elevate his game. He will soon be 28 – those are his prime years.

    He had a year at .880 OPS and one at .912. He had a bad year last season in Pittsburgh as he did not have much protection in the lineup. Put him on the Dodgers, and you might see more than a “borderline” superstar. You just might see a real one.

  13. I agree with d-ram – way too much to give up. And that’s why it would work. Time to move some of that MiLB depth. Reynolds dWAR sure ain’t all that but that move would take care of centerfield for a few years. It would also free up those old outfielders that were signed to clobber minor league pitching then leave.

    I thought AF was attempting to dive under the CBT, then I thought he was saying “Ef those taxes”, now I admit I don’t know wtf he’s doing and will wait til seasons end and read the results.

    1. You have to give up too much to get a player like Reynolds. To get Manny Machado as a rental, the Dodgers gave up Rylan Bannon, Yusniel Diaz, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, and Breyvic Valera. Dean Kremer is a nice pitcher, and Zach Pop is turning into one, but the Dodgers ended up getting Bannon and Diaz back, and the rest were flops. Yet, at the time of the trade, we heard, “That’s too much to play for a rental.” Was it?

      Reynolds comes with 3 more years of control!

      1. Considering the way Machado played as a Dodger and his total flameout in the 18 World Series, yeah it was. He did not contribute that much to the run to the pennant. He was above average but certainly did not play like a superstar. .273/13/42 in 66 games was not all that great. He struck out more in less at bats than he did in Baltimore. He was hitting .315 at the time of the trade and finished at .297. He had 4 hits in the World Series and struck out to end game 5 and the Dodgers chances. He hit 2 homers in the NLDS, but hit .176. He did hit a homer in the NLCS and hit .296. But his 4-22 performance in the World Series was bad, Plus he totally embarrassed the organization with his unnecessary spiking of the first baseman in the NLCS. We nicknamed him “The Smirk” cause that is the way he looks all the time. Best short-term performance by a trade deadline pickup is still Manny Ramirez, .396/17/53 in 53 games.

      2. The difference was when they traded for Machado, they were expecting to get back to the World Series and win it after losing the year before.
        They thought with Machado they could replace Corey Seager who went down in April and had to end up having Tommy John and was lost for the season
        So they were really desperate and willing to overpay

        .

        1. Why is 2023 any different? Any year you can win is a year you might have to make some deals.

      3. 3 years!?

        Then give them Busch, Outman and 3 guys from the Loons. Busch is another Yordan and Outman is another Pedro Cerrano. Reynolds doesn’t even make the list of Top 5 centerfielders. And you can’t go wrong with 3 Loons. 3 loons beats 2 of a kind.

      4. A close friend covered the Orioles for many years. Diaz was considered the big prize–the guy who had superstar potential.
        Now he’s back with the Dodgers.
        It would be quite the story if it turns out he’s a late bloomer…

  14. I meant position players mark and your right I did forget about lux who made his debut in 19 and outman sure hasn’t made it yet

  15. Does dodger brass want a player who publicly demanded a trade with apparently no concern on how it might damage his current team. Just a thought

    1. It is a crap team with bad player development, and they just squeeze the cash out of it. They have no chance of winning. I would have expected him to ask out sooner.

  16. A picture is worth a thousand words:

    2023-CF

    I think Busch, Pepiot, Outman, Leonard, and Feduccia sounds about right.

    I also think many Dodger fans overvalue Outman based on his good luck in his first game.

    You have to ask why the scouts and talent evualators don’t rank him with the other top prospects?

    2. It’s true he did have an amazing start with the Dodgers for those few games , and I guess you could call him lucky. there is no denying what he did at AA and AAA last year though.
      BA. OBP. OPS. HR. RBI
      293 / 393 / 978. 31 106
      He OPS 1,090 against right hand pitching
      I would do that deal though, but without the addition of Pepiot
      Pepiot showed last year if he trust his stuff, he can get major leaguers out

    1. They want a starting pitcher as well.

      Busch is highly ranked, but Outman isn’t. You can’t get a TOP 6 CF’er with Three years of control for that. Look how many prospects we gave up to get Manny M, who had only a half-season of control. The Dodgers traded their #6 prospect, who instantly became Baltimores’ #1 Prospect, and four A prospects, who were not ranked by the Dodgers for a half-season of a superstar. BTW, three of the four Dodgers traded immediately became Top 22 Prospects for Baltimore.

      1. Like I said, farther up in the post, the Dodgers were desperate, because they lost
        Seager

      2. Having been to the World Series a year before the Dodgers thought Machado would be their ticket. Manny was a superstar Bryan Reynolds is not
        If we’re in the right position at the trade dead line this year, I would do that deal but not now
        Besides that you’re gonna need Pepiiot this year

  18. How many times have we said, “never saw that coming?” That’s why AF has a room full of Ivy league nerds! Most of us could not get into that room without a mop and a bucket.

  19. Most agree that you can never have enough pitching. Are you confident that Gonsilin is gonna pitch like he did in the first half last year? We don’t really know how Syndergaard is going to shake out. Who knows how long it will take May to come around. And then you have to worry about Kershaw‘s DL stints
    So trading somebody like Pepiot, who you depended on last year for some starts, doesn’t make sense to me before the deadline
    I know we have Grove, Jackson, Stone, and Miller down there also but none of them have really been proven
    See how you look at the trade deadline, then make your adjustments.
    Who knows maybe Outmam is hitting 260 with 10 or 12 home runs by the deadline
    It could happen…

    1. I think Gonsolin will have TJ this year or next. Thor will be good… not great! I think May will be solid, but here is why I trade Pepiot. Keith Law feels the same way I do about Pepiot:

      “I don’t think he’ll ever have the command to be a big-league starter, but I do think he’ll have the stuff, and if he can’t stick in a rotation he’ll have a chance for extremely high-end value in relief.

      1. You could be right Mark. But then again, Clayton Kershaw didn’t have command until he did. Pepiot pitched to a 3.47 ERA last year in 36 innings albeit a small sample size.
        Kershaw pitch to a 4.26 ERA in his first year with about the same WHIP as Pepiot
        Not at all, Saying that Pepiot will be anything close to Kershaw
        I am saying that baseball writers and scouts aren’t always right

  20. Keith Law of The Athletic has a good read on the Dodgers Top Prospects:

    https://theathletic.com/4161936/2023/02/10/dodgers-top-20-prospect-farm-system-ranked/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288

    He has River Ryan who was traded for Matt Beaty ranked #9:

    Ryan was the Padres’ 11th-round pick out of UNC-Pembroke in 2021, heading to the Dodgers last March in a trade for Matt Beaty. He was a two-way guy before but the Dodgers moved him to the mound full-time after the trade. The switch saw him take off, especially in velocity, as he’s now 93-97 and has even hit 100 mph in a start, with a ton of vertical break on the pitch. He has a three-pitch mix with an above-average slider already, and he’s extremely athletic. He had a limited workload last year but struck out 35 percent of batters he faced between Low A and High A, and that’s in the first year he’s ever started more than four games, even including college. I had some sources suggest him for the back of the top 100 and I’d be surprised if he didn’t make the cut next year.

  21. On James Outman, Law says this:

    There’s too much swing and miss in the zone here to say he’ll be more than an average hitter, but with his other tools, that makes him a potential star, especially if he can do more against lefties than just hit for power. He’s older than any hitter on this list, but doesn’t have as much baseball experience as the typical 25-year-old. Don’t be surprised if he ends up the Dodgers’ primary center fielder this year.

  22. Badger says this:

    “Keith Law is f.o.s. “

    Reynolds put up 2.9 fWAR last year last year. I submit Busch and Outman would put up more than that the first year there. They would put up even more after that. They want a pitcher you say? Ok, Pepiot. That’s enough. Not Rushing. Throw in an A prospect we don’t need just to make it look better. If the Pirates have “backed off their demands” as you say, that should be enough.

  23. We’re signing Alex Reyes!

    A 1.1 million contract for 2023 and a 3 million team option for 2024.

    And a possible 8.9 million in incentives on this year’s contract, so if he’s the best version of Alex Reyes, he’ll earn 10 million this year.

    1. Reyes’ deal with the Dodgers includes a club option for the 2024 season that is worth $3 million, but the total could ultimately be up to $10 million if the right-hander reaches a number of salary escalators and performance bonuses, which include relief appearances the next two seasons and days on the active roster, a source told MLB.com
      Sounds like a smart move to me

    2. Another low risk deal. If Reyes can stay healthy and get back his command (he gave up more walks than hits in 2021) he could be our closer. He always could miss bats. But he’s more fragile than a 19 year old collage student with pink hair majoring in something that ends in “studies”.

  24. Dodgers Sign Rubby De La Rosa To Minor League Deal

    Now that is a blast from the past!

    From MLBTR:
    De La Rosa, 34 next month, has spent the past few seasons in Japan, and hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2017. Last year, he tossed 38 1/3 innings of relief for Yomiuri in Japan, working to a 2.58 ERA. That was his fourth season with the team, and he’s been a highly effective reliever over that period, finishing with a combined 2.53 ERA over 124 1/3 innings.

    This move marks something of a homecoming for De La Rosa, who signed with the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic back in 2007. The right-hander was well regarded coming through the minors, and made Baseball America’s top-100 prospects prior to the 2011 season. After a promising rookie year (3.71 ERA over 60 2/3 innings), the Dodgers shipped him to the Red Sox as part of the deal for Chris Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett in 2012.

    De La Rosa never did deliver on his promise, struggling in Boston after returning from Tommy John surgery before being traded to the Diamondbacks in 2014. He spent a couple of seasons in Arizona, but after working to a 4.59 ERA over 247 innings, De La Rosa required a second Tommy John surgery and the Diamondbacks let him go. They would re-sign him to a two-year minor league pact, but he’d never make it back to the majors.

  26. With this world baseball classic going on. I pray Kershaw, or Freeman or any other dodgers playing in it don’t get injured before the season starts . That would be bad and we know how Kershaw has back problems .

    1. Adrian Gonzalez went down and Cody Bellinger took his spot.

      Wally Pipp went down and Lou Gehrig took his place.

      Every pitch could be Clayton’s last. That’s the way of baseball… and someone will take his place.

    2. Dodgers lost Hanley that way for a while, he hurt his wrist diving for a ball at SS in the WBC. Injury’s happen, no way you can stop them.

  27. So yesterday dodgers make move and get David Peralta as their left fielder with Taylor platooning and probable Thompson unless Heyward beats out Thompson. And if they don’t get Reynolds. Then Taylor or Outman will be in Centerfield. So the outfield could be Peralta Taylor Betts as starters. Something tells me Roberts goes with experience and chooses Heyward since he has been working out at Stadium and with Vargas. Does that mean Thompson starts in AAA and is there in case of an injury or do they put Outman down there in case of an injury. If they trade for Reynolds. Then it’s either Thompson or Heyward in Oklahoma City. And now today they got a closer in Al Reyes All Star Closer for the Cardinals so the team is coming together before spring training. Next will be the Reynolds trade so they have a set outfield before spring training of Peralta Reynolds Betts starters then Taylor as the utility guy plays any where. and one outfielder sub, Barnes, Rojas, Martinez.

  28. First I want to compliment nonicnamebumfan for some good posts today, you sound like me.

    Mark what I meant by a trade for Reynolds is not his style is because what you were proposing in that trade was too much going to the Pirates and it’s not his style to do that trade for a career .842 OPS hitter. He could trade for Reynolds but he’s not giving up as much as your proposal. But still just my opinion I don’t think he will trade for Reynolds because he has Peralta now and I think Peralta will start in LF with a platoon partner who’s name I don’t know and I think a trade for his platoon partner is coming up. I think AF is going to give Outman his shot in CF as the starter.

    I love the signing of Reyes. Career .189 BA against and .609 OPS against. And .195 BA and .603 OPS against RHB. .181 BA and .617 OPS against LHB.

    I still think starters:
    Smith
    Freeman
    Vargas
    Lux
    Muncy
    Betts
    Outman
    Peralta with a trade for a platoon partner
    Martinez
    Bench: Barnes, Rojas, Taylor (possibly platooning with Outman but I doubt it), one of the LF platoon.

    2. Thanks Eric, I haven’t posted in a long time but I read the site every day. I’m more excited than I’ve e been in a long time for the upcoming season. I think LADT Has the best posters and commenters out there. Quite a few could write professionally if they wanted to.
      I get a kick out of the give-and-take and even some arguments. Love the sarcasm too.
      Mark does a great job of stirring the pot and keeping things interesting., And let’s not forget Bear, he does a great job with all his stories on dodger history and baseball, history in general. So pat yourselves the back, LADT followers you all contribute to the best dodger site out there.
      Jeff’s got a pretty good site too Dodger Chronicles

    1. How can that be called reporting? Some unknown making a claim Dodgers cheated without any direction as to what or how. What is the hidden meaning? Am I missing something?

      1. Thought exactly the same Quas.

        I think it’s meant to make the readership feel better.
        Surely need to quote someone?

        Hope life is good.

        Find the Peralta signing a little strange – lot of money for a Bench Player?

    2. JD Martinez was a member of the 2018 Red Sox – Ask Him.

      I learned a long time ago, when people make accusations, you don’t even respond. I say, “>Prove it or shut up!”

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