But, the Plan is Friedman’s… not Mine!

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1. Huh? If Lux and Vargas settle in at SS and 2b they can afford to get a SS? Is that supposed to say a CF?
   I agree they need so sort it out during spring training, which makes the timing of signing Peralta curious. As you said yesterday that makes more sense if a trade is looming.

   1. The next paragraph explains it: “If Vargas is solid-to-good-at 2B, then Lux (if he can’t handle SS) could be traded or moved to CF (more likely, he would be traded).

2. If Gonsolin is healthy and May reaches his potential then trading Pepiot is more likely. With the Peralta signing it looks like Busch is odd man out. So a deadline trade involving Pepiot and Busch looking more likely to fill a need. Hopefully they both have good first halves in OKC

   1. Lot’s of “IFs” here.

      If Vargas can play 2B (I think he can);

      If Lux can play SS (I am unconvinced); and

      If Outman can win the CF job (If he can hit .260 and play good defense, he will hit 30 HR, and I HOPE he can.

      Also, I think Peralta reunited with RVS will have a good year with 350-400 ABs.

3. This year and next year, the Dodgers will have 10-14 players who are technically ready for the show. Some are going to have to be traded…. and there could be a big one.

4. Do the deal Friedman! Reynolds gives us a 280 hitter w/ 25& 80 every year for the next 3 years!!! Agree with marks earlier post not Rushing, but another prospect. Look for Thor to have a very strong year. If Tony goes down, then Gavin stone steps right in and we don’t miss a beat! Dustin may might, could be the baddest dude in the rotation! Like the Peralta signing to platoon with Taylor. Really hope Heyward makes the team. Great defense and I really believe he hits enough to justify his spot! Thompson? I like him but just don’t think he breaks camp with big league team. Duggar and Zimmer? No shot. Super bowl? Don’t really care who wins but watching Mahomes always fun! College basketball really good right now! Go hoops and go Dodgers!

5. If Reynolds can be had for a package of Pepiot, Grove, Ramos and Busch I would do it now. Asking price will only go higher at the deadline. Player wants out of Pitt which should give some leverage.
   If needed throw in another player like Leonhard or Vivas or a lower level prospect. Or upgrade Ramos to Pages.

   IMHO Lux will surprise a lot of fans and play some good ss. I am more worried about Vargas at 2 b. Almost no experience there. Maybe it will come down to Rojas at ss and Lux at 2b.

   Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!1

   1. That is too much. Just because we have prospect depth doesn’t mean we should waste it.

      I mean, it’s probably “fair” but I don’t care for it.

6. As Mark has mentioned many times, AF is always looking at the present and the future at the same time. He added a year for Treinen even though he will most likely miss the 2023 season, he acquired JP Freyerisen and now Alex Reyes who both won’t be ready until after the all-star break. Coupled with young guns he most likely will not need to go relief pitch hunting at the trade deadline and will instead use some young assets for position players.

   He has backstopped the decision to go young with Vargas and Outman by getting Rojas, Peralta, Heyward, Zimmer and Duggar. If Vargas is overmatched in the big leagues he can insert Rojas into the everyday starting line-up. If Lux can’t handle SS Rojas can plug and play there. If Busch and/or Outman light it up in ST and earn an opening day spot on the roster he can make an effort to see if Zimmer, Duggar and even Heyward to want a AAA assignment while awaiting the eventual injury or slump.

   Let the Padres win the off season but when the bell rings on the 2023 season, lets see what AF has put together and see if his NL West dominance continues. If I was going to Vegas I would put my money on him!

   Go Dodgers!

7. I agree with much of what you wrote here, Mark. The tea leaves have been hard to read for the Dodger’s off-season but that is part of what makes this season so intriguing. There is going to be competition at two outfield spots and the questions about Lux and Vargas up the middle.
   The Dodgers are going to be forced to make some decisions about their 40 man roster next off-season which may make some of these prospects more likely to be traded rather lost for nothing.
   Like the addition of Peralta in left though it appears to make it more difficult for Busch to play. Taylor would certainly appear to be more of an option in the outfield barring injuries or issues with Lux or Vargas. Not sure what the Peralta signing means for Heyward’s chances of making the team since most seem to think he is not a center fielder any more.
   I still think the prospect price for Reynolds may be be too high. I can see giving up Pepiot and Busch but would hesitate to throw in Rushing. A couple of lesser prospects that were mentioned seem to be more reasonable. I know Reynolds is better than Varsho but he fetched a top catching prospect who is ML ready and Lourdes Gourriel. Though Varsho had a WAR only .5 or so below Reynolds and is considered by many to be a better center fielder. Generally, Dodgers under Friedman have done a good job of identifying prospects they could trade from those they need to keep (Yordan Alvarez and O’Neil Cruz aside).

8. I want Outman in CF. He will entertain.

9. Why is Trayce a longshot?

   1. In some people’s minds he cannot repeat what he did last season. His age, 32 is another. But he and Betts and Taylor are RH bats, Heyward and Peralta and Outman are the LH bats. If Thompson makes the team, he almost certainly will be the CF. I do not think he is a platoon option in left. I think that comes down to Peralta and Taylor. The Dodgers can carry four outfielders if they have Taylor who can also play the infield. My personal belief is that Outman can benefit with regular playing time at AAA. He is not going to make the team and become a bench piece. Hence, the signing of Peralta. My other personal belief is that many here are underestimating Thompson’s desire to be a better player. Yeah, he struck out a lot at the end of the year, but that was the most he had played in several seasons. His back injuries slowed him that much. I also think many are underestimating Heyward’s desire to get back to what he used to be. Both players are highly motivated. And that motivation can mean a lot. Thompson is on the roster. Heyward is not. They still need to make a roster move when Peralta is added after his physical. Same for Reyes. So who are the two odd men out? Reyes can go on the 60-day IL later.

10. We don’t need Reynolds at the start of the season or even at the trading deadline. Save the prospect capital for a player or players that will put you over the top in October for a World Series ring at the trading deadline. Reynolds is not that player. Wait and see how things play out with the rookies. I believe nobody will run away and hide in our division with the balanced schedule. Just make the playoffs, be healthy and play your best baseball with your best possible roster in October. That’s the formula for success. AF is the best. Trust him.

    Who is betting on the Super Bowl? I just put $300 on the Eagles on the moneyline.

    1. 100 bucks on the Chiefs.

       Go Rams!!!!!!!!!!1

11. For most of this winter I figured the Dodgers would go with what they have, early winter acquisitions and all, and wait for the deadline. But my vision at the time had Outman and Thompson sharing center and Taylor/maybe Busch in left. Now they sign Peralta for a surprising sum of money and I don’t know what to think. That’s why yesterday I said yeah, ok, send those older guys there is no room for, Busch and Outman, to Pittsburgh for a guy who wants out of Pittsburgh. Those rookies would likely be play right away there and honestly we wouldn’t miss either of them this year and the system would still be stacked.

    Some say players out of nowhere can make the roster out of Spring Training. I say not on the Dodgers. I say they already know what they want to do. Those two roster spots are penciled in. It would take colossal collapses in March to change that. But then, I also admit I don’t know anything.

    I can’t offer much at this point. I’m going to have a hot cinnamon roll and wait for the game. I like KC but I think Philadelphia will win a close one.

    1. What Friedman has done is become more flexible and adaptable. He can go in just about any direction.

12. What does anyone think about looking at Smith at third during spring training? In 2024 I’d like to see Smith at third and Cartaya/Rushing platoon at catcher/DH. Martinez is probably about done.

    1. Cartaya has not played above High A ball yet and Rushing hasn’t even gotten past Rancho (Low A). Not a great chance that either of them will be ready for a spot on the Dodger roster by 2024. Probably 2025 at the earliest.

    2. 1. I do not think JDM is done; in fact, I look for him to have an All_Star Year, and Max Muncy is signed for 2024. I suggested a couple of years ago that Smith could go to 3B and I still see that as a possibility. It depends upon how Muncy. Vargas, Cartaya, et al do.

       In 2024, what about this?

       1. Lux 2B
       2. Betts RF
       3. Freeman DH
       4. Smith 3B
       5. Vargas 1B
       6. Reynolds CF
       7. Cartaya/Rushing C
       7. Pages LF
       8. De Paula SS

       I keep hearing that Reynolds is not a superstar. I don’t think so much as what he IS now. He has been stuck in an organization that is a joke. I have inside information on that BTW. The Indianapolis Indians are the AAA Affiliate of the Pirates, and all I am going to say is that Bryan Reynolds is right to want out. I can’t say why, but if you knew that you could never win, why play? If the Dodgers get Reynolds, he will be a SUPERSTAR. Here is his best year:

       2021 – 656 PA
       .302 BA
       .390 OB%
       .622 SLG
       .913 OPS
       145 OPS+
       24 HR
       90 RBI
       119 K
       35 DBL
       8 TRP

       Those are Superstar Stats. Would you have a shitty attitude (he doesn’t) if you were on a team where the owners got paid, but the players didn’t get paid, and you had no chance to win? He wants out, and I am sure it messes with his head. Don’t judge him on his body of work for a shitty team. He can do what he did in 2021 AND MORE if the Dodgers ahold of him.

       1. Well, why not put Lux in centerfield? That’s been part of your masterplan for several weeks–to move an lifelong infielder with a not-great arm ot the OF.
          Very odd.
          Often I think you post notions just to be provocative. And that’s OK.
          But this is the first I’ve heard that young Mr. De Paula is a SS. I thought he played OF, but if I am mistaken… great!
          And why would you have Freddie take his (occasional) gold glove to DH and give Vargas 1B?
          Still, this is fun stuff.
          I too don’t expect a big trade until midseason, for precisely the reasons you cite. What will be the greatest need? Best case is that Lux, Vargas and Outman all succeed. If any of them don’t then it’s time to find replacements. (And the replacements could be internal, with Busch and others in OKC.)
          Those others in OKC could well include Trayce, unless Heyward really sucks this spring.

13. Most likely Miguel Rojas is the back up plan should Lux fail to fill the void at SS. We know Lux’s bat plays at the major league level. So the only question tied to him is: what position is he going to play longterm?

    Although, I have my doubts about his ability to remain at SS, I’m pulling for the kid. If Lux is unable to remain at SS, the Dodgers are likely going to be facing a black hole at the position in the near future. We could potentially find ourselves looking back and ask how a financially rich organization like the Dodgers fail to lock up one of the two top SS of this generation?

    I have a hard time seeing the Dodgers opening the season with question marks at 3 separate positions. I envision the Dodgers going with Lux at SS and Vargas at 3B/2B, but compounding that with Outman in CF seems like a bit of a stretch for a team that is looking to contend this season.

    I believe the Dodgers will be making a move before the start of the season.

    1. I disagree. They will see what they have coming out of spring training. AF rarely makes a move before the deadline. Last season was different simply because he traded Pollock for Kimbrel. Unlike back in the 60’s, this team rarely does anything before the deadline. I see nothing happening before July.

14. I am going into Spring Training believing (and hoping) that this alignment works:

    C – Smith
    1B – Freeman
    2B – Vargas
    SS – Lux
    3B – Muncy
    LF – Peralta/Taylor/Heyward
    CF – Outman
    RF- Betts

    If Lux, Vargas, and Outman show they can handle their respective positions, then all will be good. My biggest worry is Lux, but if he can pull it off defensively and elevate his game offensively, then that is a good start. I have no doubt Outman can play CF – can he hit? If he can hit .250 to .260 he will hit 30 HR. But can he hit lefties? That is the question. We have to see which way the Dominos fall…

    1. I don’t see much likelihood that Peralta, Outman and Heyward are all on the roster at the same time.
       All are lefty hitters so my feeling is that if Outman has a decent spring, Heyward won’t make the opening day roster. If Heyward stays, Outman starts out at OKC.

15. Thought provoking write up today Mark, good job. Getting me all pumped to get some games rolling. I to would like to see that lineup but so much can happen between now and start of season just never know what surprises could come our way. Also deadline should be very interesting which all makes for even more excitement. I’m not sure why but got this good feeling for this year. Let’s get a parade and celebrate it right

    1. It’s going to be fun. We haven’t had a Spring Training like this for a while.

16. Also, think about this: If JDM has a good to a great season, the Dodgers can extend him the QO for about a 9 Million pay increase or get an additional pick.

17. Jd- 290/23hr/33doubles. Max 235/33hr/88rbi. Will. 26hr/90rbi. Freddie 298/34hr/112rbi. Vargas 277/22hr/77rbi. Gavin. 293/18hr/24sb. Mookie. 288/27hr/ 80rbi. Add Reynolds!! What a lineup!

    1. You think our guys in blue are even thinking about Reynolds? We have the talent already in the building.

18. Yeah. I think they are. Tired of coming up short. You have the resources, use them. Prospects don’t last forever.

    1. A Pirate demands a trade and we care?

       1. No we do not.

       2. That is not a smart question.

          Try and re-phrase it!

          1. Try to rephrase it.

             1. A Pirate wants a trade and he fills a need.

    2. Again, I disagree. AF will add only if he sees a need. Pirates are under no obligation to trade Reynolds, and if they do, it will be for a boatload of talent and around the deadline. And does Reynolds make the Dodgers the odds-on favorites to win the World Series? Not hardly. It is not that easy to get to the World Series anymore. You have to win three rounds of playoffs if you are not the team with the most wins just to get there. If you think just adding Reynolds to their lineup is going to guarantee a better finish, you are delusional. No one player is going to guarantee them anything. He is a good player, and he adds some offense to the team. But at this point I doubt they are even talking to the Pirates. AF never makes a trade unless he feels it makes the team that much better and he will only make trades he thinks are equitable trades. It might make sense to you to trade for Reynolds, but I am pretty sure whatever talks they had before now went nowhere simply because Pittsburgh’s demands are very high.

19. Absolutely if you want the player. Every team has players that would be mush better in a different uniform. Reynolds is such a player. 95 percent of dodger fans would give 3 very good prospects for Reynolds. Makes sense

    1. I question your math. I doubt 95 percent of Dodger fans want to trade for Reynolds, and three top prospects would just be the beginning. The Pirates are seeking a deal close to what DC got for Soto.

       1. 95% of Americans wouldn’t agree on anything.

          3 top prospects? As in top 20? Ok. Outman, Frasso and Leonard.

20. Supposedly the price has dropped

21. 1) Someone said what I have been saying all along and that is non roster position players almost always don’t make the roster on a team like the Dodgers and I will add to it that it will take some sort of collapse for a non roster position player to make it. More on that later when I get to the outfield.

    2) Let’s assume Taylor is in the mix in the outfield and that’s the plan.

    3) If Vargas fails at 2B because of either defense or hitting or both then he is shipped to AAA and Lux moves over to 2B and Rojas becomes the SS. 2 questions: Does AF want a shitty hitting starting SS? And. Who is the utility infielder? The only option is Taylor. More on that later when I get to the Outfield.

    4) If it’s Lux that sucks defensively at SS and Vargas works out at 2B then Rojas becomes the SS and Lux is on the bench or sorry Vargas we are not putting Lux on the bench so Lux will be playing 2B and Vargas is sent to AAA and Taylor might be needed at some point in the infield. Question: Does AF want a shitty hitting starting SS?

    5) I’m going to give you the outfielders career splits to show you there has to be at least 1 platoon if not 2 in the outfield and because several people think Heyward might make it onto the roster I will include him.

    Thompson .228/.315/.436/.751 vs RHP, .210/.281/.430/.711 vs LHP

    Taylor .257/.331/.429/.760 vs RHP, .253/.334/.440/.774 vs LHP

    Heyward .267/.353/.432/.785 vs RHP, .231/.302/.340/.642 vs LHP

    Peralta .294/.350/.486/.836 vs RHP, .238/.302/.361/.663

    Outman will hit RHP but is a question mark vs LHP.

    6) As you can see Thompson is decent against RHP. Taylor is decent against both RHP and LHP. Heyward is decent against RHP. Peralta is good against RHP. The best options in the outfield are Peralta and Taylor and that would make a fairly good platoon in LF. Besides them there are 3 options against RHP and Outman that might hit LHP. You don’t want Outman on the bench, he’s better off in AAA. Question: Who is going to handle CF. If it’s Outman then who is going to platoon with him if he can’t hit LHP? If it’s Thompson or Heyward then who is going to platoon with one of them? Problem solved if Outman can hit LHP. Keep in mind Taylor might be needed to start in the infield and if that happens you have at least 1 problem in the outfield LF and maybe 2 – CF. So how the hell do you solve 1 maybe 2 problems with Heyward and Thompson, because they can’t hit LHP? Busch? No, between AA and AAA he hit .235 BA and .780 OPS against LHP. That’s not very good stats in the minors. Can he hit that in MLB this year (that’s below average stats) or can he exceed that in MLB this year? The answer is almost 100% no. So because there might be up to 2 problems in the outfield, because of the lack of hitting LHP. There has to be an outfielder that’s going to make the team that hits LHP. Who is that I don’t know.

    7) There are 11 locks making the team: Martinez, Peralta, Taylor, Betts, Freeman, Muncy, Lux, Rojas, Smith, Barnes, and the outfielder that hits LHP. 2 that are in line first Outman and Vargas. If Outman and Vargas make the team then the roster is set and niether Thompson or Heyward make the team. Thompson or Heyward are there if Outman doesn’t make the team. But if Vargas doesn’t make the team then Taylor might be needed at some point in the infield then that creates a lack of hitting a LHP problem in the outfield that neither Thompson nor Heyward can solve. I guess the Dodgers can go without that and carry both Thompson and Heyward but that doesn’t make sense.

    8) Bottom line Thompson and Heyward are long shots to make the team, but maybe one of them will, maybe, but not both. It would take a collapse (Vargas and Outman both don’t make the team) for both Thompson and Heyward to make the team and there would be a lack of someone that’s good at hitting LHP if that happens. So there is a move coming for an outfielder that hits LHP good. I guarantee it. That means 11 locks with Vargas and Outman the favorites for the remaining 2 spots.

    9) Or a Reynold trade is coming (but I doubt it) and most likely to play LF with Outman in CF with Peralta and Taylor on the bench with possibly Taylor platooning with Outman (13 spots filled). Or Outman is sent to AAA with Peralta and Taylor platooning and there will be a need in the outfield for the last spot and that will be either Thompson or Heyward.

    Damn I could have wrote this and gave it to Mark to approve it for up top. Lol.

    Just my 2 cents.

    1. There’s a lot more than 2 cents there.

       Somebody else want to take a shot at it?

    2. Thompson and Heyward are long-shots. I agree.

22. What if instead of focusing on what we don’t have, we concentrate on what we’ve got.

    1. The Monkey’s Paw

    2. I did focus on what we have, but no matter what the Dodgers need to make a move for at least an outfielder that hits LHP good to be in a platoon or on the bench, or Reynolds. Because Thompson and Heyward don’t fit on this team unless there is a collapse (Outman and Vargas both don’t make the team).

       1. Still the Dodgers should trade for that outfielder that hits LHP good, even if the Dodgers trade for Reynolds, in case either Outman doesn’t make the team or because Taylor might be needed in the infield at some point if Vargas doesn’t make the team.

23. In 2024 season is that when Juan Soto becomes a free agent. Could the Dodgers go after him as a free agent and be their left fielder. With then you could have Soto left field Outman or Reynolds in centerfield and Betts in right field could the Dodger possibly go get him. Now you put Soto in that lineup in 2024. Look out baseball teams now that would be an amazing lineup.

    1. They could, but when was the last time they outbid every other team/ Like… Never!

    2. Juan Soto is not a free agent until after the 2024 season. You can bet SD is going to try and lock him up in the next two years. Ohtani is a free agent after this season.

24. If you like sound bites, I doubt that you will be successful here… just FYI.

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