There are some baseball projection services such as ZIPS and STEAMER, and I always say that I will never look at or consider them again because they are never right, but come the Dog Days before Spring Training, I end up looking ZIPS and here are some of their 2025 Projections:
Hitters:
- Will Smith – .252 BA/20 HR/74 RBI/4.2 WAR
- Freddie Freeman – .298 BA/22 HR/94 RBI/4.3 WAR
- Shohei Ohtani – .290 BA/45 HR/139 RBI/6.5 WAR
- Mookie Betts – .283 BA/24 HR/95 RBI/5.1 WAR
- Teoscar Hernandez – .267 BA/28 HR/100 RBI/2.8 WAR
- Tommy Edman – .254 BA/11 HR/64 RBI/2.8 WAR
- Andy Pages – .247 BA/22 HR/75 RBI/2.7 WAR
- Max Muncy – .214 BA/21 HR/64 RBI/2.4 WAR
- Dalton Rushing – .224 BA/18 HR/54 RBI/2.5 WAR
- James Outman – .221 BA/19 HR/73 RBI/2.2 WAR
- Alex Freeland – .224 BA/13 HR/74 RBI/2.3 WAR
- Miguel Rojas – .253 BA/5 HR/38 RBI/1.7 WAR
- Michael Conforto – .232 BA/18 HR/52 RBI/1.2 WAR
I think the ones that are Highlighted are probably pretty accurate.
Pitchers
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – 11-6/145 IP/3.34 ERA/3.5 WAR
- Blake Snell – 9-5/133 IP/3.38 ERA/3.1 WAR
- Tyler Glasnow – 9-5/123 IP/3.42 ERA/2.9 WAR
- Clayton Kershaw -7-4/85 IP/3.71 ERA/1.6 WAR
- Bobby Miller – 6-5/107 IP/4.36 ERA/1.4 WAR
- Landon Knack – 6-6/108 IP/4.31 ERA/1.2 WAR
- Shohei Ohtani – 7-4/100 IP/3.77 ERA/1.2 WAR
- Tanner Scott – 9-4/68 IP/2.92 ERA/1.1 WAR
- Brusdar Graterol – 4-1/53 IP/3.07 ERA/0.8 WAR
- Evan Phillips – 4-2/58 IP/3.12 ERA/0.8 WAR
- Justin Wrobleski – 5-6/113 IP/4.69 ERA/0.8 WAR
- Michael Grove – 4-3/67 IP/4.28 ERA/0.8 WAR
- Alex Vesia – 5-3/62 IP/3.32 ERA/0.7 WAR
- Tony Gonsolin – 5-4/81 IP/4.33 ERA/0.7 WAR
- Blake Treinen – 6-3/46 IP/ 3.13 ERA/0.7 WAR
- Dustin May – 2-2/38 IP/3.58 ERA/0.7 WAR
- Michael Kopech – 7-6/89 IP/4.23 ERA/0.4 WAR
- Ben Casprius – 5-6/86 IP/4.92 ERA/0.4 WAR
- Kirby Yates – 5-3/52 IP/3.48 ERA/0.4 WAR
OK, I am stupider after reading all that. Very little, if any, of that will come to fruition.
I do think that the Dodgers will give James Outman EVERY OPPORTUNITY to win the LH Platoon in CF. The Dodgers would love for him to start against RHP, with Edman moving to CF against LH pitching. Against RHP, Edman would play 2B. When Edman goes to CF, Kim or Rojas moves to 2B… and of course, there is also Kike… or there will be soon!
I could also see Michael Conforto having a huge year to the tune of 28 HR and a .270 BA. I think Conforto will benefit from working with RVS and Bates… Immensely!
This morning I watched a ten-minute video of Conforto’s 2024 highlights. I’m buying him. That swing plays.
If somehow these prediction guys get paid for this stuff, that’s great for them
It cracks me up when people argue over win/loss projection systems. Glorified guesses.
These guys are worse than weathermen.
And usually just as wrong.
FWIW (and not meant to be snide nor catty,) weather prediction is pretty phenomenal these days. It’s getting even better with AI.
Those days of the LA Story caricature are sadly well behind us.
It may be different on the West Coast, but here in the Midwest, it still is a crapshoot!
There’s a guy in Colorado with a site called future snow who will predict 60 plus days for major storms. He is over 80%
Read about it, Mark. It’s just another reason our data point to the wonders of our current era.
It’s kinda fun to look at projections, but you’re right, they’re never right.
So ESPN LA is reporting a rumor that the Dodgers have re-engaged the Cards in talks on Arenado.
The deal, allegedly, has the Dodgers trading Chris Taylor and Tony Gonsolin for Arenado and $8 million in salary relief.
Well, I’d rather have Arenado than Taylor. I would miss Gonsolin but, coming back from injury, he was far from a lock on the six-man rotation, especially with higher-upside guys like May and Miller in the mix. He’s also older than those guys.
I’m ambivalent about this. Arenado has been in decline for a few years. Could a change of scenery (and coaches and teammates) help revitalize him?
I assume that he’d take the short side of a platoon at 3B with Max, and also serve as a late-inning defensive replacement. Another righty bat off the bench. Perhaps Freddie sits sometimes, with Max shifting to 1B.
New lineup versus lefties?:
Shohei DH
Mookie SS
Freddie 1B
Teo RF
Smith C
Arenado 3B
Pages* LF
Edman CF
Kim 2B
*Assuming that Pages makes the roster. Conforto may not need a platoon; reverse splits last season. Pages could play CF, though not as well as Outman or Edman.
The bench would feature Max, Rojas, Barnes and (maybe) Conforto.
That deal makes a lot of sense. Of course, Max could move to 2B.
Arenado is a shell of the player he once was, but he could still be useful.
I think Conforto’s reverse splits were because of where he played. He has never had that the rest of his career and he OPS’ed 200 points higher on the road.
The Padres are allegedly signing Jason Heyward to platoon in LF with Conner Joe, since Profar signed with the Braves.
heard yesterday on mlb network that Arenado has been working like crazy to add muscle. don’t be shocked if he bounces back in a big way wherever he goes! the defense is going to be strong and his offense will be better. Now if they do get Nolan what becomes of Max? i like Max , but i don’t believe he is an everyday second baseman. they don’t need a designated hitter. they don’t need a first baseman. i guess he could platoon vwith Kim at 2nd. Taylor and Gonsolin for Arenado? yep, i do that. like them both, but that allows them to resign Kike. …. those projections have Pages to hit 24 homers? don’t see that unless Conforto orcTeo get hurt in the spring. If Outman does have a good spring and Pages doesn’t, Mark , could Pages be moved? Or does he have options? …. i believe Nolan has 2 good seasons left in him! now do the Dodgers? Those guys on mlb seem to think he’s primed for a big year. …. Projections have Clayton going 7-4. don’t see him pitching enough to have that many decisions. i see him at 5-2. and around 60-65 innings, and someone very valuable in October! …. Agree that Conforto might not need a platoon partner. i think he has a very strong season. 23-28 homers and around 80 rbi. So who ever makes the roster , Outman or Pages, they won’t get a lot of playing time. …. I hope Will Smith rebounds, not that he had a bad season, just some nagging injuries that kept him him from being “Will”. Will. Dalton be the backup? i really hope he is! .. Look for Mookie to push hard for MVP! i’m picking him over the field! you heard it here first! …. Freddie? 28 and 100 this season. And maybe a little more rest than usual, especially if Max is a part of the team with Nolan at 3rd. … the starters? look for 5 different starters to win 12 plus games! they are that loaded! Dustin May? i’m not sure what they do with him. Long relief?? MAY be! …. one last thing about the Dodgers ruining baseball. Edman, Conforto, Teo, Max, Scott, Yates, Rojas, Trienan, Kim, Phillips,Kopech,Banda, all have something in common. Every team in baseball could have afforded them! Even Freddie has a contract that every other team could have paid. Snell, at least half the league could have him on their payroll. Mookie? a gift from the Sox! So let’s sto with the dodgers “ruining baseball “! its the cheap -ss owners of let’s say 80 % of the other teams not spending ruining the competitive balance of baseball! Go Eagles!
You have to wonder how Heyward will get along with Machado and Tatis Jr.
This shall prove to be interesting!
You don’t think he’s been signed to mentor them some?
Heading home to Colorado on Monday.
Hey Mark. It looks like MLB just changed the rule about two way players and their qualifications. Sounds like Ohtani won’t have to requalify again this year as they modified it to include the previous two seasons. That helps the Dodgers quite a bit to start the season?!?!
Thanks for reminding me. I was going to post it yesterday but forgot.
It may help, but Ohtani was not scheduled to pitch until May, so the help will not be immediate.
Back on the back ablation, that’s a no for me but I am curious how it goes! The AFIB version went well. It would be awesome if a similar thing could reduce back grief. Please let us know how it goes and go Dodgers!
A couple of years ago Mark published his OPS predictions in the spring. I printed it and reposted them on the site at season end. Mostly they were pretty accurate. Just based on his thinking without using any algorithms. So these things are just for fun and and everyone can opine on them.
That’s the point. Knowledgeable fans can frequently beat the projection sites.
… and there are outliers – players who have great years and players who have off years.