How to Fix the Plethora of Tommy John Surgeries

Legend has it that Sandy Koufax threw 100 MPH and had a 12-6 curve that was unhittable. He was so good that they called him the “Left Arm of God.”That was propounded by the master storyteller, Vin Scully. It all sounds plausible, but it wasn’t true. According to Charles Tips, Co-Founder of Star Maker  Baseball Academy in Redwood City, “the highest speed Koufax was ever clocked at was 93.2 mph.” That is in Clayton Kershaw Territory. We really don’t know how fast pitchers threw back in the day. From what I have heard, I think Koufax may have thrown pitches that were in the upper 90s, but the facts are not in my court.

What we do know is that today, pitchers throw with max effort… or at least most pitchers do. The Dodgers pitchers certainly do… at least most of them. I listened to Dave Roberts on MLB.RADIO yesterday, as he talked about Jack Flaherty. He said that Jack “is not a max effort guy.” Jack Flaherty absolutely does not throw with maximum effort. Neither does Clayton Kershaw, but most do. Dustin May did. So did River Ryan, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, Nick Frasso, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan, and Tyler Glasnow. Do I have your attention?

“Max Effort” is the Problem! Jack Flaherty was one pitcher who was talked about yesterday by Doc Roberts, and his exact words were. “Jack Flaherty is not a max-effort pitcher.” Jack Flaherty’s 4-seamer is a pitch that averages 93.5 MPH. That is what Flaherty has always been at. I can’t prove it, but I think Flaherty can hit 96 to 97 MPH if he wants to. Jack Flaherty understands that maybe it’s better to live to throw another pitch.

Fifty years ago, I used to be able to throw 100 MPH. Yes, it hurt, but I could do it. I was young and dumb and had no idea what I was doing. It really hurts now, and I can barely lift my right arm above my head. I cannot swim on my stomach. I can lay on my back and do it. Pitching, actually “throwing” 100 MPH, ruined my arm. I have concluded that the human arm cannot throw 100 MPH… and prosper!

Bobby Miller is the “poster child” of why a 100 MPH fastball is nothing. My 100 MPH fastball was straight and flat… and hittable, just like Bobby Millers’. Bobby Miller is a “thrower” while Jack Flaherty is a “pitcher.” Walker Buehler is a classic example of a “max effort” pitcher. The Dodgers have been developing “max effort” pitchers for some time now. They have a stable of them, and we see the results: Max Effort = Tommy John… two times over.

Yes, some freaks can throw 100+ MPH (Aroldis Chapman, for one) and not have their arm fall off, but most pitchers can’t. Part of the reason these guys have poor control is that they are throwing too hard. To me, a pitcher who can put the ball where he wants is better than a pitcher who can throw 100 MPH. How do you stop pitchers from throwing 100 MPH?

The answer is simple and most fans will rail against it, but any pitch over… say 97 MPH… is a ball. Easy, peasy!

By the way, HERE is a great explanation and video about Tommy John Surgery by Johns Hopkins.

Dodger News

  • It sounds like Tyler Glasnow is done for the season after he felt pain in his elbow in a bullpen session. Another max effort guy!
  • You should now be praying for Clayton Kershaw’s toe…
  • Yamamoto, Flaherty, and whoever can walk and throw—this should be fun. The Catman is back!
  • It sounds like Shohei Ohtani will pitch at some point this year. I have mixed emotions about that. Do you know what mixed emotions are? That’s when you see your mother-in-law driving over a cliff in your new Dark Horse (which I am taking delivery of today.

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This article has 48 Comments

  1. I would like to see the Dodgers move away from spin rates and 98-100 mph fastballs towards Greg Maddox type thinking on changing speeds and location.

    The long injury list screams that changes are needed

  2. I think you’re right. Max effort is causing arm injuries.

    But the problem is in the minds of young pitchers. If I don’t throw this hard, I probably don’t make it into the majors. That’s pretty much what Walker Buehler said in an LA Times story a few days ago. It’s risk/reward and the risk was worth it.

    Isn’t this pretty much how people talk about travel ball and high school pitchers these days. It’s all about the radar gun. Wow, this kid is throwing this fast. The scouts are drooling, but arm injuries among younger players are increasing.

    So, Buehler felt if he didn’t do what he had done, he might not have made it to the majors. So the risk was worth it.

    How do you change that? The organization could try, take a different approach or consider it a numbers game. Got 10 prospects, a few will make it, most will go down, a. a couple will will make it back. I’m sure it’s a constant discussion in the Dodgers front office.

    The other part of this is the weight training, making arms stronger and allowing pitchers to throw harder or to sustain longer.

    But teams don’t control this. In the off-season players often use outside trainers, plus all the specialty training centers with all the computers and video equipment. You can throw harder with this technique.

    MLB is concerned about travel ball injuries where young pitchers throw too hard and too many innings.

    How do you change it? I have no idea. Buehler said he would do the same thing.

    1. Buehler has earned over $30 million SO FAR
      Tua from Dolphins just had his 4th concussion. He recently signed a 200+ million deal

  3. How many starting pitchers does AF and BG have to stockpile tp make it through a full season and playoffs in the future because of max effort and potential injuries? Very concerning!

  4. I think the world of Kershaw. He’s on my Mount Rushmore of favorite all time athletes but my heart does not want to see him get shelled again in the postseason. As much as a lot of us fans would love to see him dominate in playoffs and be a big part of leading us to a championship in my opinion the odds of that are slim to none with what he’s has left in him. It bothers me to much seeing him on bench defeated after a poor outing. Enough is enough

  5. Our starting pitching depth chart is a guy who we got at the deadline, a rookie who missed three months, Ben Casparius, and a bunch of question marks.

    No worries!

  6. Despite the setback, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said the team received encouraging news from Glasnow’s MRI results, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic:

    “I think they’re pretty promising talking to Thomas (Albert) our head trainer,” Roberts said regarding Glasnow’s evaluations.”I don’t know exactly what went into it, but he seemed pretty pleased as far as the results of the scan didn’t show anything, which is a good thing.”

  7. I have an idea. Carry multiple bulk inning guys instead of SP3 & SP4.

    Whoever starts those games would be yanked immediately anyway if in trouble.

    Candidates: Gonsolin, Knack, Grove, Buehler, Miller, Wrobleski, Casparius, Ohtani?

  8. I am with Michael about Kershaw!
    Nothing would be more awesome than him being a major reason we win the WS.
    On the other hand – it would pain me to see him fail again and that be a major sub-note to his career.

    That said – if he can pitch we need to use him since it appears we are down to Flaherty and Yamamoto.
    Unfortunately, Mark’s saying “next man up!” doesn’t work here as we don’t have any more “next man up” around that aren’t injured.

    While it would be storybook ending – even if Ohtani could actually pitch – do the Dodgers want to take that risk??
    Gonsolin would be another great story line, but again, it’s only been a year since his surgery.

    Watching the video on Ferris above – to my untrained eyes – he doesn’t seem like a “max-effort” guy.
    I live in the SF Bay Area, and another guy that just keeps putting up large inning number is Logan Webb of the Giants, and I don’t think he has ever been on the DL list for any type of arm problems.

    Flaherty would be worth signing just so we know we can have a reliable pitcher who will actually last a whole season.

    1. If you believe that Flaherty is a workhorse pitcher who will last the whole season, then you aren’t aware of his lengthy injury history or his recent performance:
      2020: – 4-3, 4.91
      2021 – on DL 5/31-8/13 and 8/25-9/24
      2022 – on DL 7/11-9/5, finished with 4.25 ERA in 9 appearances
      2023 – 8-9, 4.99, demoted by the Orioles from starting rotation

  9. Ok. Let’s all take a deep breath. Good! First off, good article. If they don’t put mpg limit restriction on pitchers. They will continue with max effort. They think that is the only way to the bigs. Second off, if the hitters are patient at the wrong time, our opponent won’t expect it. And we will score lots of runs. Sweep and our aces will be ready to go in the NLCS. I’m excited. Great time for Dodger Baseball!

  10. Good news is that Stone will start throwing this weekend while they are in Atlanta. His coming back sound would be a welcome sight. Catman is pitching for OKC this weekend. OKC only has 8 games left, not much time for rehab starts.

  11. Koufax threw hard no question. Koufax had to retire when he was 30. Drysdale threw hard, he had to retire at 32. Drysdale is to have had rotator cuff issues, which can be fixed now. Gibson threw hard and pitched until he was 39. Ryan threw hard and he could probably still pitch. Something is going on with the Dodgers training for pitchers it’s happening to often to be coincidental. I’m optimistic that the Dodgers figure it out soon. There is to much science to not have someone figure it out.

  12. Koufax threw hard no question. Koufax had to retire when he was 30. Drysdale threw hard, he had to retire at 32. Drysdale is to have had rotator cuff issues, which can be fixed now. Gibson threw hard and pitched until he was 39. Ryan threw hard and he could probably still pitch. Something is going on with the Dodgers training for pitchers it’s happening to often to be coincidental. I’m optimistic that the Dodgers figure it out soon. There is to much science to not have someone figure it out.

    1. You can say that again!
      Yes, I suspect maximum effort is a big part of the problem. Where is Warren Spahn when we need him?
      The Dodgers notoriously overworked Koufax, Fernando and prime Orel. Guys like Gibson and Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson are freaks.
      I was talking baseball with a Brewers fan today who pointed out that Corbin Burnes has had little injury history. He was the guy I wanted AF to get last winter–but when the Orioles got him it was clear the Dodgers simply didn’t have what the Brewers wanted: an infield prospect as good as Joey Ortiz. Anyway, I rated the trade targets in this order: Burnes, Cease, Glasnow… because of Glasnow’s injury history. We were led to believe that Glasnow’s most recent surgery had eliminated the “injury-prone” label. Well, maybe the risk was reduced a bit.
      AF, I think, did not “overpay” for Glasnow. But now I’m thinking an “overpay” for Burnes or Cease might have been worth it.
      BTW, I’m comfortable with the Dodgers getting Shohei ready to pitch in the playoffs. The guy got a $700 million deal for a reason.
      There’s going to be an injury risk whether it’s in October or next spring.

  13. 7:20 PM ET

    Dodgers (87-60)
    Braves (80-67)

    SP Jack Flaherty R
    12-6 2.86 ERA
    SP Chris Sale L
    16-3 2.38 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup
    DH S. Ohtani L
    RF Mookie Betts R
    LF T. Hernandez R
    1B F. Freeman L
    C Will Smith R
    CF Tommy Edman S
    SS Miguel Rojas R
    3B Max Muncy L
    2B E. Hernandez R

    34% Rain
    72° Wind 14 mph R-L

  14. BAD NEWS CONFIIRMED:

    Manager Dave Roberts said Saturday that Glasnow has a sprained right elbow, and it’s unlikely he returns this season, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.

    “The news of Glasnow’s sprain comes as somewhat of a surprise, considering Roberts previously said that initial scans on the right-hander’s elbow were “promising.” He’ll be shut down from throwing for the time being, and although he hasn’t officially been ruled out for the season yet, it’s likely the only way he pitches again in 2024 is if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run”.

  15. The playoffs require good SP, defense, and clutch hitting. Our pitching is looking suspect although I think we can get by with a 1-2 of Flaherty and Yamamoto if we can get season-best performances from 3-4 combo featuring Stone and may be Kershaw. Buehler and Miller don’t have what it takes to win Our pitching does not stack up against the Padres who have Cease, Musgrove, and now Darvish– the Pads have done a good job of managing Musgrove and Darvish to be ready for the postseason.

    I like our defense with the exception of Muncy. I am convinced other teams will exploit his lack of speed of speed fielding bunts.

    Clutch hitting can win games and series– think Corey Seager. I like to Dodger hitters overall, but we only have a few truly clutch hitters (defined as high avg wRISP). Lux, Edman, Kike, and Miguel can be difference makers. Muncy needs to be down further in the line-up, like #7. He is not clutch, and strikes out too often in high-leverage situations.

    Our bullpen is sold. It may not be the best in the MLB, but close. Roberts has the arms he needs to navigate the 2nd half of a game. Can he do it? I don’t think so.

    The playoffs are an opportunity for our big 3 to carry the team, and an opportunity for someone else to step up and be a hero. It won’t be boring.

  16. We need a hero. We need a shot in the dark. We need a 3rd starting pitcher. We need an unexpected performance. Something you didn’t see coming. We need a dude who walks the walk and embues the mound with clarity. A walker embuer. Walker Buehler.

  17. Sale starts with 5 pitches out of the zone. mookie swings at first pitch and Teoscar out at third. Not a good start

    1. Never played, but in 1973, I went to a Cincinnati Reds tryout camp in Oxford, Ohio. Chief Bender was standing by the mound and asked to see my fastball. They had a Juggs Gun and it registered 97 MPH. He asked me to throw another, and the gun read 00. He said to do it again, and it was 97 MPH again. I found out later that 00 meant it was 100 mph. He then asked to see my curve, and I said I couldn’t throw one. He said, “Kid, come back when you can.” I was shocked because they weren’t interested. Everyone had always told me I threw the hardest of anyone they had ever seen, and the Reds weren’t interested. I was crushed! I moved on. That was the closest I came to ever playing baseball.

  18. Sure. Koufax never threw faster than 93.2 mph but Mark threw his fastball 100mph. Put me in the skeptical camp.

  19. I’m shocked. If Clayton can push off the mound he’s our freaking hero. That would be the storybook, not Ohtani. You’d have to be crazy not to pitch him if his toe is right. You guys would really want him to end his playoff career with last years debacle? With no chance at redemption? He could pitch better than most of these max effort slugs with two bad shoulders. How do you spell hero…..Kershaw that’s how. Just another humble opinion.
    Book em

  20. Unless Buehler or Miller are able to step up their game and pitch at least 5 quality innings from this point forward into October,in my humble opinion the Dodgers will exiting the playoffs early as they have the last two years. It’s a shame and a proven fact that spending a billion plus in the off season buys you NOTHING! You can’t control injuries to pitchers which has hampered the Dodgers’ chances this October as it did last October.Sad!!!!!

  21. Just hoping Glasnow is not this decades Driefort. Not sure extension was the best idea. Hoping Yamamoto wasn’t worse. I do understand we had to outbid for him but we didn’t have to for Glasnow.

    1. I never liked the idea of trading Pepiot when he seemed to have finally sorted things out. Glasnow may prove to be ok in coming years , but he’s needed now.

      Dustin May? Saw him on the bench in Arizona, which means he probably has been rehabbing at Camelback Ranch. Can figure how an esophagus tear a few months back has sidelined him for the remainder of the season.

      1. Pepiot has had a nice year and two stints in the IL to go with it. He has made 23 starts and has 115 IP with a 3.75 ERA. He was a #4 or #5 with the Dodgers. Glasnow was an ACE who had the same undiagnosed injury for almost 4 years. Glasnow pitched 134 Innings and had 168 Ks with a 0.95 WHIP. The league hit .190 against him., while the league hit .218 against Pepiot. Still, hindsight is 20/20.

  22. Who was that former Dodger SP that got railroaded out of town circa 2022 for being a hoax victim and has offered his services this year for the league minimum??? White guy & rhp and won a Cy Young in 2020??? Father Time has caught up to my memory!! Forget the name but damn, he sure would look real good as a #3 come October.

    1. He was no Dodger but a random p.o s. that AF stupidly handed the bag to. We are living out his curse and we deserve it.

  23. Today’s word is “Gaslighters.”

    Gaslighters are people who try to control others through manipulation and will often accuse you of behaviors that they are engaged in themselves. This is a classic manipulation tactic.

    This has been a public service announcement!

  24. The hard truth is that as constructed right at this moment, this is not a championship staff. Both Buehler and Miller are going to have to pitch like they did when at the top of their game for this team to even have a shot at going deep in the playoffs. They are in danger of losing their division lead.

  25. Dodgers (87-61)
    Braves (81-67)

    SP Walker Buehler R
    1-5 5.95 ERA
    SP Charlie Morton R
    8-8 4.11 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup
    DH S. Ohtani L
    RF Mookie Betts R
    1B F. Freeman L
    LF T. Hernandez R
    SS Tommy Edman S
    3B Max Muncy L
    2B Gavin Lux L
    C A. Barnes R
    CF K. Kiermaier L

    76° Wind 14 mph In

  26. Did Texas and Arizona have a championship staff last year? Keep the faith boys. Till the last out!
    Book em

  27. Sunday schedule
    11:05 a.m. PT: Tulsa (Orlando Ortiz-Mayr) at Wichita (C.J. Culpepper)
    12:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Tony Gonsolin) vs. Tacoma (Casey Lawrence)
    Ben Casparius is also expected to pitch for Oklahoma City on Sunday, piggybacking with Gonsolin, who is making his second rehab start.

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