It’s easy to be a fan. It takes no effort, really. You just root for your team, and if your team is winning… well, you are a fan… and you are happy. To some fans, if the team is not winning, they are no longer willing to be a fan. We call them “fair weather fans.” I have been an LA Dodger fan since 1963, and there has been fair weather, bad weather, and good weather. I consider the past ten years to be the best time in my life to be a Dodger fan. However, I understand something that some fans don’t: You can’t always gauge success by Championships.
You used to be able to do that. The winner of the National League Pennant played the winner of the American League Pennant for the World Series, and, statistically speaking, you had a 50-50 chance of winning. Unless you are mathematically challenged, the odds are much lower now. I don’t care if you have the best team. The odds still come into play. If you are of the opinion that Andrew Friedman can build a team that can win 100 games but not win the World Series, you are seriously delusional!
Having the best record after 162 games is an indicator of how good a team is overall from top to bottom. Winning a best of five games or seven games is nothing like that. It has nothing to do with the amount of talent. It has to do with luck. It’s a crapshoot! Literally! If you are the best team, then the odds are better, but the more teams there are, the worse your odds are. Pure and simple! If you cannot comprehend that, you are simply too stubborn. Baseball has changed – the playoffs are different – accept that! Are there things that a team can do to play better so that they don’t get bounced in the first round? Absolutely and I will discuss that in a future column.
Then someone will say, “Well, why play the games then?” Yeah, that’s the question and the current playoff format has somewhat made the regular season not as important. But you still play to win a Championship – that’s why! I listened to an interview with one of the Rangers announcers, who has since moved on to Atlanta, and he said he could not believe the Rangers actually won the World Series. They stumbled down the stretch and got in by the grace of God and had a bullpen that was horrible… until the playoffs!
I won’t give you the blow-by-blow, but it was not the most talented team that won, and Bruce Bochy did not make many genius moves. They were damn lucky… and while they did have some talent, it was nothing close to LA, San Diego, Baltimore, or Atlanta. Those teams were vastly more talented. I don’t like the current state of the playoffs because why play 162 games if you are going to have a crapshoot in the end? There is a better way, but I will save that for another day.
If you are really a fan, like me, I want to understand everything about the game. I have been a student of baseball for 60+ years, and I still learn every day. I recently read the book “Future Value” and realized how little I still know. If I were to go back 60 years and start over, maybe Baseball would have been my vocation instead of my hobby. But I would not change anything. I have been successful in life and in business, and baseball is a great hobby for me. I love it!
So… What is the Biggest Mistake?
The biggest mistake baseball fans make is to look at last year’s statistics and think that the player or team they are looking at will do the same as last year. Nothing could be less true. A player or team will do one of the following:
- They will be better;
- They will be worse; or
- They will be the same.
There is a 33% chance they will be the same. There is also a 33% chance they will be worse, and there is a 33% chance they will be better! I will not draw your conclusions – you need to. Don’t make the mistake of having sight over vision. Don’t see talent where there isn’t, but remember talent is rare, and truly understand that progress is not linear! You also need to understand that the game is played by humans, and sometimes some crazy stuff happens.
Do you think that some of Max Muncy’s problems were the result of his arm injury? I know it was, and I also know that sometimes you think your body has recovered, only to find out later that you weren’t even close. I think that happened with Cody Bellinger as well. I think a 100% healthy Max Muncy could very well put up a career year in 2024.
I have seen Gavin Lux running, and he says he is fine, but he had a horrific injury. Let’s say he is OK… can we expect him to play SS at a high level for 140 games? Of course, you know my opinion of Gavin Lux as a SS. I don’t think he is, but evidently, the Dodgers do, so let’s assume that I am wrong and he is going to be capable of playing SS at a high level. Can he do it for 162 games? Of course not! Can he do it for 140 games? Maybe. I think his bat will play up and he will be another .800+ OPS guy in a lineup full of them.
It’s going to be a fun Spring Training!
If left handers Sale and Fried are healthy in a post season series with the Dodgers and with left handed reliever Bummer in the bullpen acquired in a trade the the White Sox, my opinion is the Dodgers will not fare well in that series being a predominantly left handed power hitting lineup. Right now the Brave’s lineup is more balanced than our lineup and their starting pitching is also better than ours. Hopefully AF is not through and needs a power right handed bat and a left handed starter. Maybe the 30 year Japanese lefty starter still unsigned is the answer or Kershaw if healthy at mid season.AF and ownership have gone all in thus far and can’t stop now.
Good point, AVF.
I agree the biggest need for the Dodgers at this moment is a big RH hitter for LF.
Not for the regular season but as you said looking ahead to the postseason and there especially the Braves.
Our rotation could use a LH starter but I am fine how it stands now.
Hader would be a nice pickup too with an eye on postseason play. Dodgers very likely are more than good enough to win the division without any other additions, but if the goal is the WS they probably have to spent even more dollars than they already have. Unless somebody already on the roster (Vargas, Pages ?) steps out of the dark and provides that RH bat .
Backup catcher: I hope they give Fiduchia a fair chance in ST or in a more unlikely szenario Cartaya catches fire .
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They won’t sign Hader for the simple reason that he has a QO attached to him. If AF did that, he would lose two additional draft picks. 2-3-5-6. He has already lost two because they signed Ohtani. And they gave up 1 million in international pool money. AF loves his picks, losing two is ok. He won’t go for four.
Mark,
infrequent poster but frequent reader here
thanks for all your efforts on the blog … very enjoyable read
Please keep up the good work and all the best to you and family in 2024
also, no LH starter is not ideal
dodgers got criticized for glasnow. nowthe braves bring in Sale. while he doesn’t really scare hitters as much as he used to, still a very good pitcher when healthy. an era over 4 last season . the strikeouts are still there, but he can be hit. i’m not sure the braves starting pitching is better than the dodgers, although Fried is in a contract year, and Strider can be a beast. charlie morton is almost 40. not sure anybody afterthatis as. good as what the dodgers can roll out there. i am concerned about walker b. i was disappointed they didn’t sign Giolita. i agree mark, if Ryu is completely healthy, why not? could be a great signing. heard on mlb Clayton isn’t sure about pitching this season, and if he does it actually might be in texas. hope that’s not true. now atlanta in my opinion still has a better lineup top to bottom. with mookie moving to 2nd our outfield took a big step backwards. some fans and even some media when listing the dodgers outfield have Chris Taylor starting in left. if thatscthe casevthe dodgers are in trouble. not because he can’t play left field, he’s very good defensively wherever he plays. but that’s the key , wherever he plays! he’s not an everyday player. way too much swing and miss. but, he’s a very good defender wherever he plays. if rojas is moved and lux plays shortstop, taylor becomes an important part of that infield late in games. that makes the case for a right handed bat for left field! no rosarios, no joc , no kiki. duvall is slightly intriguing. lot of power and he can play all 3 outfield positions. some swing and miss. Pham? i believe he would love to play in LA, i believe he would not be a distraction in the clubhouse. i’m just not sure he is an upgrade. he’s not playing 130 games nor is he hitting better than .230-.240 . in summary, te braves outfield is better. AF can fix that but will he? i said earlier a bench with barnes,rojas, taylor is scary.so much swing and miss. the way Doc platoons and does it early, that’s trouble later in games. a Ryu signing, a right fielder, and giveFeducciaa shot.
The most important element a team can have in the postseason is starting pitching that can shutdown the other teams offense. That’s how we won in the 60’s and that’s what will make us successful going forward. We didn’t have that last season, and we had no chance.
Andrew is building a starting rotation that can dominate, especially with the first three starters.
Not sure this is true at all.
His argument is anecdotal, but I think it’s fundamentally true.
When you have two teams that are relatively unfamiliar with each other, such as the scenario that often happens in the playoffs or WS, the advantage goes to the pitcher. He, the catcher and the coaching staff just have to scout and develop a game plan on how to pitch to a specific hitter. That specific hitter, on the other hand, really has to face a pitcher to gain experience against him and how he throws.
Also, success in the regular season is dependent on a lot of variables and moving parts -the depth of the starting pitching from #1-#5, the bench, etc. In short series, having less starting pitching depth but studs #1-#3 will give a comparative advantage.
I’m thinking the 1988 Dodgers facing the Oakland As juggernaut as an example, albeit an anecdotal one.
I get that thinking, but I think recent history is that most games are conventional scoring affairs and pitchers rarely get time on mound to go thru the order more than 2x.
But, hitters do go cold and the ability to change pitchers more liberally than hitters may make pitching more important?
I wasn’t thinking so much about 3x through the order necessarily (thought that’s true), but the more a hitter is able to face a pitcher in general, the more he understands and becomes accustomed to the quirks in his delivery and the movement of the ball, etc. Having a scouting report that tells you Eckersley likes to throw a back door slider in a full count is helpful, but it’s not a substitute for facing Eckersley and his unorthodox side arm delivery a few times over the course of a season or a career.
With that in mind, that hypothetical advantage is going to be a little less, IMO, with teams within your division that you play more often. That hypothetical advantage might play up a little against teams you don’t face all that often.
I remember making the observation when I was young that hitters often struggled when they changed teams across leagues. For example, if a player was traded from an American League team to a National League team, he struggled at first until he got to face opposing pitchers a few times. Mind you, this was before interleague play.
I dunno. I’m just spit balling.
I think we Dodger fans are becoming.a bit too accustomed to a division championship followed by a postseason collapse.
So now we are celebrating the offseason as a triumph:
Ohtani! Yamamoto! Glasnow!
Certainly it’s more exciting for us than watching other teams play in October.
I hope we have a couple more “wins” before spring training.
Well, we could be one of those teams who rarely even makes the playoffs. One thing we’re not is long suffering like some other fans of other teams.
100% on your last sentence
I agree with you Mark. This is a great time to be a Dodger fan. I have been fan since 1985. I will be 49 next month. I do hope we get Hader, another SP and maybe Pham. They might as well keep going all in.
Oscar, Hader is a solid no. He has a QO and the Dodgers would lose two additional draft picks. They are already losing two for Ohtani. Besides, Hader is a jerk. He refused to pitch in the 8th inning of a game last year. Pham would be a nice bat, but he has had problems wherever he has gone. Not considered a good clubhouse guy.
I try to keep it simple. In the playoffs I’d put my money on a team with two elite starters and good staff all around but poor hitting over a team with great hitting and a poor staff. Now all GM‘s got to do is find that delicate balance in between. Simple. Lol
Certainly the D’backs had the superior SPs.
While we like to blame the “playoff layoff,” the D’backs actually had the 3 best SPs in that series.
But I do wish the Dodgers had tried Pepiot instead of Lance Lynn….
This conversation does have me wondering whether the Dodgers still need another ace like Cease or Burnes for the playoffs…
We had mashed their starters all year long and then suddenly in the playoffs they were unhittable. More about our hitters underperforming than them being elite.
I wish the Dodgers could have started Bauer instead of Lynn. Just think how the season could’ve been different had he been on the team.
Was just scrolling Twitter and saw this tweet by Bauer.
”
Trevor Bauer (トレバー・バウアー)
@BauerOutage
My cousin Michael was a Harvard law grad. About 10 years ago, he was falsely accused of rape. He was disbarred due to the allegations. He was never arrested. He was never charged with a crime. He was never convicted of a crime. For the past ten years, he has fought his way through the legal system and won at every turn, incurring tremendous amounts of legal bills along the way. This past summer, he won a civil case against the woman who falsely accused him. She was ordered to pay him ~6 million dollars, but she had no money, and he knew he would never see a cent of what the court determined he was owed. Even after this, the NY bar refused to reinstate him. He was not allowed to go back to work. Earlier this month, after ten years of fighting, winning, and still not being able to get back on his feet, he took his own life. I just found out. People who make false allegations, especially of a sexual nature, should have no place in society and should face consequences for the damages they cause. It’s not funny. It’s not cute. It’s not a story to laugh about with your friends. It’s not something to brag about on social media. It’s not a way to gain a following on social media or launch a podcast or write a book. It shouldn’t be a way to make a quick buck. It’s not acceptable. It’s a crime, and for the falsely accused, a crime that can have deadly consequences. There is no justice here. Rest in peace, Michael”
Horrific. So sorry Patch!
If you had put your money on the teams with two elite starters, it would not have been the Rangers.
Man I sure was hoping all the crapshoot crap was beaten so deep in ground already wouldn’t have to hear about it again at least till August. Why. Why why
uh… Maybe because it is!
My fanatical friend whose son is an analytics guy for the Blue Jays sent her New Year’s greeting out on Facebook:
“Only 45 days until pitchers and catchers report!”
The Pitching Ninja on YouTube has a pretty cool analysis of Yamamoto’s mechanics, including his “javelin” training. (Not a true Olympic javelin, but more of a long dart.) He’s extremely flexible–it’s emphasized in his workouts–and that should limit the injury risk.
The Ninja echoes the sentiments that Yamamoto, given his stature, may be comparable to Pedro Martinez and Lincecum.
The “Ginoza curveball” is something I’m sure my 14-year-old crafty southpaw will be practicing. Nice to have another average-size role model in the game–and especially on the Dodgers.
In the post season the first game typically pits each team’s Ace against the other. That game should be low scoring and the losing team wasted their Ace. If the other team’s Ace is a lefty the Dodgers probably won’t be favored to win the first game.
It seems like the Dodgers would have had more success in the playoffs if they could have mixed more small ball into their attack to better address the better pitching they will face. If true, how would they best accomplish that? Change the game plan or change the mix of players that would remove one or more big swingers with one or more contact hitters?
BJD & Duke,
Perhaps no sport is more dependent on “luck” than baseball. You can get a “shooters roll” in basketball, but if the ball is not almost all within the rim, you don’t make the shot. Pure and simple. It’s not like that in baseball.
In 2018, the year Mookie Betts won the AL MVP, his BAbip was .368. In 2022, it was .272, and last year it rose to .316. Some of that is skill, and some of it is just blind luck. BAbip tells a story involving a large degree of luck.
Tatis, Jr. can hit the ball right on the screws, and Cody Bellinger can jump over the fence and catch it. Does that mean that in that play, Tatis was not good, or was it bad luck (for him)? On the other hand, I have seen a bloop single that split the outfielders and turned into an inside-the-park HR. Luck? Damn straight!
Corey Seager has been a Word Series MVP twice, and he has a .294 BA in the WS to go with a .991 OPS. Yet, Dodger fans minimize the role Roberts played in 2020 and fixate on Bochy’s Role in 2023. Ha – Pure hypocrisy! Corey is clutch!
The Rangers lost 5 out of their last 9 games, including the last two of the season, and backed into the playoffs thanks to other teams losing. It was pure luck that they made the playoffs.
The Rangers pitching staff was the 18th best in MLB. Their starters were #7, and the bullpen was #24. Offensively, the Dodgers were better than the Rangers, scoring more runs, hitting more HRs , stealing more bases, and having a higher OPS and OB%.
The reliever (Sborz), who was on the mound for the final out, had a 5.50 ERA during the regular season and a 0.75 ERA in the postseason. I think the odds are better that he has a 5.50 ERA next season than a 0.75 ERA. You can’t say with a straight face and a sound mind that Lady Luck is not involved.
The Dodgers did not play a significant game in September. They had the division locked up. The Rangers played the whole month of September as if each game was the last and had a 15-13 record, including losing the final two games. They backed into the playoffs while the Dodgers cruised in.
The reality of the situation is that the Dodgers had no business winning last year, not even counting Mookie and Freddie choking. The rotation was decimated and yes, AF could have gutted the farm and got Montgomery and others, but right about now, even Ray Charles can see why he did not: Glasnow, Yamamoto and Ohtani.
“The reality of the situation is that the Dodgers had no business winning last year, not even counting Mookie and Freddie choking. The rotation was decimated and yes, AF could have gutted the farm and got Montgomery and others, but right about now, even Ray Charles can see why he did not: Glasnow, Yamamoto and Ohtani.”
If the playoffs are truly a crapshoot and nothing more, why bother spending a billion dollars on Ohtani, Yama and Glasnow? I mean, all the Dodgers really have to do is just limp their way into the playoffs by any means necessary and then just let Lady Luck do her thing. If she smiles at the Dodgers, then WS bliss. If she doesn’t, then it’s just her caprices.
Because 162 games that you want fancy be interested in
fans to be….sheesh!
Friedman did not have to “gut” the farm to get Montgomery. The Rangers gave up only their 11th and 14th rated prospects to get Montgomery plus reliever Chris Stratton. The Dodgers gave up their 9th prospect Nastrini plus 2 other players for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly. The Dodgers could have had Montgomery for only a little bit more than it took for Lance Lynn.
The other starter that led the Rangers to the World Series title was Nate Eovaldi. He was signed as a free agent last offseason for 2yrs/$17 million per year. Instead the Dodgers signed Noah Syndergard for 1 yr./$13 million.
The Dodgers could have easily acquired Montgomery and Eovaldi last year instead of Lance Lynn and Syndergard. The Rangers chose wisely and the Dodgers picked poor options. You can call that luck or you can call that good choices by the Rangers GM.
1. How do you know that Friedman did not have to gut the farm to get Montgomery? You have no idea (and neither do I) what the Rangers would have asked from the Dodgers.
2. At the same time as Montgomery was available, the Dodgers were in the process of trading for Rodriguez from Detroit, so should they have dropped that one?
3. AF was intent on a 1 Year deal so they could sign Yamamoto and Ohtani.
4. Syndergaard turned out to be an idiot because he thought the Dodgers could restore his 101 MPH fastball instead of learning how to pitch a better way.
5. It’s easy to cherry-pick deals and hindsight is always 20-20.
6. The Rangers have won one World Series in 62 years and if you asked me if I would take the over or the under on them winning their division next year, I would take the under.
7. Hindsight is 20/20.
I’ve never heard anyone say there’s no luck involved but I’ve heard a lot of sore losers call it a crapshoot
What sore losers?
“Luck Is What Happens When Preparation Meets Opportunity”
This quote, attributed to Roman philosopher Seneca, reminds us that we make our own luck. The difference between lucky and unlucky people, we’ve seen before, is all in our perspective.
Luck isn’t just about being at the right place at the right time, but also about being open to and ready for new opportunities.
Perhaps the Dodgers need to think more about being more open to and ready for new opportunities.
Such as? That’s a very abstract statement. Tell me what they should do.
In the playoffs you get a much better chance of getting lucky when you put the ball in play and not strike out. A lot of guys need to adapt a better 2 strike approach. Especially Muncy and Taylor!
The pontification on this blog is something to behold, especially when it accompanies criticism of how the Dodger Manager speaks.
Luck has always been a large part of this game. It kind of balances itself out during 162 games. The difference is a short series does not allow any balancing. The reason the baseball post season has been called a “crapshoot” is the fact that anything can (and frequently does) happen in a short series with little time for correction.
You guys may be sick and tired of the “crapshoot” reference but I am sick and tired of the unending criticism of a Manager that has the best regular season record in baseball history. Then comes the argument “what about the postseason?” Talk about recency bias. Yes, the last 2 years have sucked but what about the previous 5 years? Three trips to the WS, one title albeit maybe really was 2. It’s impossible to call that 5 year record a failure. I want us to win the WS as much as anyone, but get some damn perspective.
2016–We lose to the Cubs who win it all
2017–Roberts takes Rich Hill out after four innings of Game 2; Astros cheat way to fake title
2018–A better BoSox team wins
2019–Roberts totally chokes the bullpen usage in firable offense against Washington
2020–Yay; grainy 1988 footage replaced by newer empty stadium footage
2021–Atlanta curbstomps us
2022–SD embarrasses us
2023–We fail to show up against a good Arizona team
I see some failure there, friend!
I disagree with 2019 and the Rich Hill part in 2017. Do you know the rest of that story? Here it is, from the Athletic:
As his fourth season on the job approaches, he is secure in his post, and he loves life here. One moment from the the last, though, prods its way into Southern California Dave’s mind: the time he jogged out to boost Rich Hill during Game 4’s seventh inning. Hill had told him to keep an eye on him, and, eight outs from a tied series, Roberts decided he would.
But Hill was turned toward the outfield when Roberts emerged from the dugout, so he interpreted the action differently. Thinking he was about to be pulled, Hill walked down the mound to meet his manager and hand over the ball. Roberts did not want the ball, but immediately he knew he could not hand it back. So he went to his beset bullpen, and the Red Sox went to town. The series was never the same.
… and where did Roberts screw it all up?
He’s just the guy you like to blame.
You need to find a new team.
Well, I know from what you wrote that you have no inside information because Doc has not lost the team, and his players and former players admire him greatly. I do happen to have inside information on this, and what you just wrote about him is false and reckless.
&typical
Back home and it is nice to be here. I want to wish all of you a Very Happy New Year. If you are going out to celebrate, be careful, there are a lot of nuts out there.