What’s Next?

Posted By on December 30, 2023

The next big thing for the LA Dodgers occurs on Thursday, February 16, 2024. That’s when the pitchers and catchers report. The position players report by Monday, February 20, 2024. If the Dodgers have a big signing or trade between now and then, I will be surprised… but not shocked. Why do I say that? The Dodgers’ 2024 payroll for salary threshold purposes has surpassed $280 million, according to Cots Contracts. The third luxury tax threshold is $277 million. Because of that, any other signings the Dodgers make will incur a 92.5% surcharge.

Dodger fans complain that Tyler Glasnow is a big risk… a gamble, if you will. However, I think he is the smallest gamble the Dodgers have done this offseason. The Dodgers’ signing of Shohei Ohtani is full of risk. He is signed through age 39, and players generally are already in some type of decline by age 34 to 36. He still has his arm in a sling, so he will certainly not pitch in 2024 or maybe ever again – that’s the worst-case scenario! He will likely miss some time in Spring Training as he re-habs that arm. So, we wait and see, but the Dodgers felt that he was worth a $460 Million Dollar Risk – BTW that’s what the Dodgers will actually pay for Ohtani. Ohtani will get $700, but the Dodgers will only pay $460 Million of that. By deferring the money, interest pays the rest. That’s pretty damn smart, don’t you think?

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was given a $325 Million Dollar Contract without ever throwing a pitch in MLB! On the other hand, Andrew Friedman said, “You don’t win three MVP awards by the age of 25 without an exceptional combination of talent, work ethic, and mental toughness. He’s an elite pitcher with an impressive dedication to his craft who will only become more dynamic in a Dodger uniform. We are thrilled for him to be a mainstay at the top of our starting rotation for years to come.” Still, not all scouts are convinced he can hold up to the rigors of MLB. Glasnow is 6 feet 8 inches, and Yamamoto is 5 feet 10 inches, so they will provide quite a visual contrast for hitters if they pitch on consecutive nights. I think the Dodgers will stage the rotation like that.

So, there is a lot of risk in the signings of Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Ohtani, but there is also a reward. A big Reward! I keep hearing about Glasnow being injured, but I have not heard anyone else say what I have said: That it was all the same undiagnosed injury. That’s a BIG DEAL. He hasn’t had numerous injuries: 90% of the injuries have been the detached tendon on the UCL. I am looking for Big Things out of Glasnow and Yamamoto this year and also additional growth by Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, and Gavin Stone. There are reports that Stone is mastering the Slider – if so, he can be a stud. The guy I am keeping an eye on is Landon Knack. If he has continued his diet and workout regimen, he could be in the 2024 rotation.

Personally, I do not think the Dodgers need a Bieber, Cease, Burnes, or the like. There are too many good arms in the system, and they are already near the 100% tax rate. It would be great to have Josh Hader, but they don’t need him, and he was part of the Toxic Padre Band of Misfits last year. So there is that!

Spring Training is the thing I am looking forward to the most. Where do all the pieces fit? There will be injuries, so I am of the opinion that the Dodgers go into the Spring with as many of the youngsters as possible. I hear that they do not have room for Vargas and Busch. Yes, they do…. but both have options left as well. Progress is not linear!

Awaiting the 2024 Baseball America Prospect Handbook

I have all the Baseball America Prospect Handbooks back to when they started: 2001. I also have all the Dodger Media Guides from 1961 to when they stopped printing them in 2018. I miss the actual paper copies (they are still available on digital). But I am about out of space.

This article has 60 Comments

  1. Does Knack have a wipeout pitch in his arsenal? And what kind of command does he have?
    PS. Don’t give my wife any ideas about banning idiots! We may be idiots, but we’re your idiots!

  2. Here’s what MLB.com said (I am awaiting the new BA Guide):

    After Knack improved his strength and conditioning, his fastball went from 88-92 mph in his first four years of college to 93-95 with a peak of 98 and improved carry in 2020-21, but he dropped a tick of velocity on his heater and didn’t command it with his usual precision last year. His tight mid-80s slider remained a solid pitch and was his most effective offering, though he lost some feel for his low-80s changeup with fade and had trouble landing his upper-70s get-me-over curveball in the zone.

    The key to Knack’s success always has been his ability to locate his entire arsenal with precision, but his leg issues led to his walk rate spiking from 1.2 per nine innings in his pro debut to 3.8 last year. He’ll need to improve the conditioning of his burly 6-foot-2 frame and stay healthy in order to recapture his past magic. He still has one of the higher floors among Dodgers pitching prospects, but his ceiling of a mid-rotation starter is further away than it was a year ago.

    BAs Scouting Grades:
    Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55. Curveball: 40. Slider: 55. Changeup: 50. Control: 50

  3. Baseball Prospectus profiles Knack as an “innings-eating, back-of-the-end rotation starter.” What do you like about him over Stone or Sheehan?

    1. I don’t like him over Stone or Sheehan. You just need solid inning-eating guys at the bottom of the rotation, and he could be one.

  5. Getting out of bed in the morning is a risk.

    You already made a pretty good case for Glasnow being healthy and delivering. I like the trade and signing. The Dodgers made a similar case. Although I really like Pepiot, I think the trade and signing works for the Dodgers in the short term and the future. As much as I like Pepiot, I like Miller and Sheehan more. Stone and Knack seem to offer the potential to be solid starters.

    So where do the Dodgers go from here? Brandon Gomes indicated they’re not done, but I’m not sure exactly what that means. They may want to add a pitcher. Low cost, high potential type? That would be my guess. No need to pursue Burnes, Cease or Montgomery, who may want to stay closer to the east coast. They seem to have no interest in Snell. No surprise there.

    For whatever reason, the Dodgers are being linked to Hader, but I can’t see that happening. But most stories about Hader and the Dodgers seems to end with LA wanting to add a starter instead.

    As to Ohtani and his deferred contract money, If there is one thing Guggenheim knows, it’s investment. Some experts expect the Dodgers to get a return of up to 19 percent.

    The Dodgers also made a great case for Yamamoto holding up. Years ago, “experts” made similar cases for Pedro Martinez not holding up. Even the Dodgers team physician weighed in to offer that opinion. Then there was Max Scherzer and the way he threw. That’s the reason they traded him. Big mistake.

    Instead of trying to find another hitter, I would rather see them give both Vargas and Busch legitimate shots.

    If the Dodgers stay reasonable healthy, I think this summer will be something to remember.

    1. If there was one pitcher I could sign, it would be Ryu.

      He’s LH

      He’s a risk

      He’s probably cheap, and if the Dodgers could have him for one year, I would do it.

      2. Look at his velo and ERA year over year. I liked Ryu, but he’s clearly at the end of the line in terms of his career. He’s running on fumes.

        You’re too sentimental.

        Also, what’s with this urge by many people here to take on another mediocre starting pitcher? Giolito or Ryu or Bieber or whomever. You all should start an animal shelter with this need to take on strays and castaways.

        The Dodgers will have starting pitchers coming out the wazoo next year.

        This year:

        Yams
        Beuhler
        Miller
        Glasnow
        Sheehan
        Kershaw?
        Stone

        Next year:

        Ohtani
        Yam
        Glasnow
        Miller
        May
        Gonsolin
        Kershaw?
        Beuhler?
        Sheehan?
        Stone?
        Frasso?

        I think it would be smart if the Dodgers adopted a true 6 man rotation at some point. With Ohtani giving the Dodgers an extra roster spot, it’s feasible. Japanese pitchers are used to a 6 man, and, with Yamamoto being 5-10/175 and throwing in the high 90s, it’s a way to reduce the strain on his and Ohtani’s arms. My nagging fear is that Yamamoto becomes a Tim Lincecum. I’d rather he be a Pedro Martinez.

        1. NPB ace Roki Sasaki wants to be posted to MLB after 2024 season despite financial limitations, per report
          By R.J. Anderson

      3. It would be a lot of fun to have Ryu back.
        He’s a bit old to quality as a Prior rehab project– like the successes of Anderson and Heaney, and the failure of Thor–but he could be the lefty they need. And when Kershaw comes back, the 6-man rotation would have two lefties from recent glory days.
        AF is said to be considering Imanaga, but that would seem kind of piggish.
        I don’t think this is a significant factor, but bringing back Ryu would help build the Korean fan base. Dodgers certainly went out of their way to sign the young Korean pitching prospect who should be ML-ready in a few years.

  6. Funny hear all this talk about inning eaters but in recent years pull most after five on a good day. Make it though six considered a workhorse and seven is like new complete game these days

    1. My theory on that is with all the new analytics on spin rate and the like, players with the help of services such as Driveline Baseball are putting more stress on their arms and throwing harder. Most arms cannot take it. So, they compromise and pitch less innings.

  7. Baseball America:

    Projected 2027 Lineup
    Catcher: Will Smith (32)
    First Base: Dalton Rushing (26)
    Second Base: Miguel Vargas (27)
    Third Base: Michael Busch (29)
    Shortstop: Gavin Lux (29)
    Left Field: Andy Pages (26)
    Center Field: James Outman (30)
    Right Field: Mookie Betts (34)
    Designated Hitter: Freddie Freeman (37)

    No. 1 Starter: Bobby Miller (28)
    No. 2 Starter: Dustin May (29)
    No. 3 Starter: Tony Gonsolin (33)
    No. 4 Starter: Ryan Pepiot (29)
    No. 5 Starter: Emmet Sheehan (27)
    Closer: Evan Phillips (32)

    Best Tools
    Best Hitter for Average: Josue De Paula
    Best Power Hitter: Dalton Rushing
    Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Michael Busch
    Fastest Baserunner: Kendall George
    Best Athlete: Jonny Deluca
    Best Fastball: Nick Frasso
    Best Curveball: Maddux Bruns
    Best Slider: River Ryan
    Best Changeup: Kyle Hurt
    Best Control: Landon Knack
    Best Defensive Catcher: Diego Cartaya
    Best Defensive Infielder: Alex Freeland
    Best Infield Arm: Mairoshendrick Martinus
    Best Defensive Outfielder: Jonny Deluca
    Best Outfield Arm: Jose Ramos

    Of course, that was published several weeks ago.

    1. Interesting projection, even if a bit dated and thus omits Ohtani.
      So let’s fix it.
      In 2027, Shohei is still the game’s best DH, Freddie is still the game’s best at 1B, and Mookie is the game’s best at 2B, not RF.
      So Vargas will not be at 2B. Busch at 3B? Don’t think so.
      So who will be at 3B in ’27?
      Three possibilities:
      — Will Smith shifts over, freeing up catcher for Cartaya and/or Rushing.
      –Rushing is converted to 3B, with Smith and Cartaya at C.
      –Jake Geloff breaks through.
      What about Lux at SS? Maybe he’ll prove himself. At any rate, the phenoms Martinus and Jeondry Vargas could be knocking in ’27. Maybe Rayne Donon?
      Outfield?
      Let’s dare to dream….
      –With blazing speed Kendall George takes over center and the leadoff spot. The new Tim Raines?
      –Outman shifts to a corner, and Pages takes another. Or maybe Jose Ramos. Or Josue De Paula.
      Nice to see that BA gives Cartaya high marks for defense.

  8. IMHO the Dodgers are pretty much set with their pitching. A rotation of
    Yamamoto, Miller, Glasnow, Sheehan, Buehler (somewhere around May/June) is fine with me. Until Buehler comes back let Stone, Knack, Frasso and the other kids fight it out for that Nr. 5 spot. I would like a LHP for the rotation but maybe the Dodgers count on Clayton to fill this vacane around the middle of the year.

    If the Dodgers are not finished with free agency I hope for a big RH bat for LF.

    Hader is interesting. With him and Phillips and Graterol the Dodgers could have a lethal option for the 7,8 and 9th inning. Could go a long way in a close playoff series.

    Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  9. Anyone know anything about Kike’s market? Of course as a Dodger fan I’d love to see him back now that most of the 2020 championship team are gone and because his hernias are healed but he’s a platoon for sure. Still, extremely useful as a Swiss Army knife

    1. I bet he wants to come back but we’re playing hardball. Might have to make a trade to fit him in.

    2. There is not much of a market for an aging utility man who has proven he is not a regular. I think there is a chance he will come back on a team-friendly deal. With the Dodgers, he hit lHP very well.

    3. The problem is roster space. As of right now, you have Rojas, Barnes and Taylor on the bench. That leaves one space for Busch/Vargas. I agree Hernandez is a good Swiss Army knife but unless 2 of the 5 names listed are traded there is no room.

      1. If Rojas is not going to start, he could easily be traded. I don’t like Rojas and Barnes on the bench… just one please!

  10. Here’s a link to a Jeff Passan article on Yamamoto (written just before he signed here).
    Lots of interesting background on his training program and his guru, Yata Sensei.
    He trains totally differently than American players, including no weights, lots of yoga and throwing a javelin.
    Sensei is coming over with him and the Dodgers may have him work with some of their other guys as well.

    Some interesting stuff here:
    https://abc7news.com/sports/how-yoshinobu-yamamoto-became-baseballs-most-coveted-free-agent/14198544/

      1. A bit of cold water on Yamamto’s first year projections. Hopefully he’s as wrong about his baseball numbers as he was about his financial projections$ thanks Patch

  11. Keke Hernandez and Jic Pederson rumors might go to the Angels that wouldnt be a bad idea for both players the LA area loves those guys gives fans something to go see. And new manager Washington the players like that guy. The LF position is what the the Dodgers need. But who. And if you all says Busch and Vargas why those two when then could play second base and they could move mookie back to rightfield if that’s correct they said mookie every day second baseman. Look for a consistent hitter that can get on base to play Leftfield.

  13. Firstly – good to see DNS back in the fold.
    The correct decision.

    Secondly, anyone else think the Free Agent Gary Sanchez would be a good signing for a year if he would take a short term deal? (for the team of the moment – Los Angeles Dodgers). Time to move on from Austin, especially now Clayton is on the shelf.
    Would be a great upgrade, and in a position of need.

    He’s got some pop.

      1. I’ve read and heard on various broadcasts that his catching has improved quite a bit from when he first got that reputation, but if we’re going to dump Barnes, I’d rather promote the lefty hitting Feduccia.

          1. Mark, please take a look at Watford’s post below.
            Looks like last year he was well above average defensively.

  14. The Braves and Red Sox have agreed to a major trade, as Chris Sale will head to Atlanta in exchange for infield prospect Vaughn Grissom, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. The Sox will also include some money in the deal to cover some of Sale’s $27.5MM salary for the 2024 season. Sale had a full no-trade clause t

    The Reds have agreed to a deal with free agent righty Frankie Montas, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (links to X). Heyman reported that Montas would receive somewhere in the range of $15MM-$16MM on the one-year deal, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that the salary is indeed $16MM. Montas is represented by the Boras Corporation.

  15. AF definitely has some decisions to make on roster spaces. Love to have Kike available in October but that’s probably gonna be at the cost of Vargas as it’s currently shaping up. I think Ryu on a one year deal makes sooo much sense!!

    Side note. Y’all are some very smart and accomplished m..fers here on LADT. I thought I was knowledgeable about baseball and specifically on the Dodgers but after discovering this site, I soon realized I don’t know shit. The differing opinions on this site are amazing and informative but us wannabe AFs need to show a tad bit more respect to Mark. If it wasn’t for his efforts, this site wouldn’t exist. Glad to see DNS back now let’s enjoy the hot stove that is now heating up with Sale to the Braves and Montas signing with the Reds as I’m posting this.

  17. sanchez might be the worst defensive catcher in baseball!! barnes ain’t great, but i’ll take him over sanchie every time! i agree, Feduccia deserves a shot!

    1. DD – Blake Snell begs to differ….

      Sánchez joining the Padres coincided with Blake Snell turning around his season. Through 10 starts this year, Snell had an earned run average of 5.04. But he posted a miniscule 1.18 ERA over his final 22 outings, lowering his season ERA to 2.25 and earning himself a second Cy Young Award. Sánchez caught the first 18 of those 22 games, missing the last four due to his wrist injury.

      That may be a coincidence but Snell himself spoke positively of the pairing to Dennis Lin of The Athletic during the season. “I’ve always heard about him offensively, but I love him,” Snell said at that time. “He blocked, like, a 97-mile-an-hour fastball in the dirt. I threw a curveball and it hit the grass and he blocked it. I mean, I don’t see the problem. Even calling the game, we had a game plan; we executed. I even put a lot of trust in him, like, what do you want? Like, you tell me. … I trust him on that. He’s smart.” The praise didn’t end there. “Framing’s good. Framing, blocking, he’s got a hose,” said Snell. “No one’s even trying to run on me. And I’ve been, like, 1.5, 1.6 (seconds to home). I really trust him because of how good he is back there. It brings a lot of comfort. So I’ve been really happy about it.”

      And then there’s this….

      The Padres claimed him off waivers in late May and he went on a heater from there. He hit 19 home runs in just 75 games, striking out in just 25.1% of his plate appearances. His .217/.288/.492 batting line led to a wRC+ of 111. His defense was also strong, with a +7 DRS and positive framing grades from Statcast and Baseball Prospectus. He tallied 1.7 fWAR in less than half a season, getting shut down in early September due to a wrist fracture.

      If he’s not better than Barnes he should be retiring not looking for a new contract.
      Why is Barnes taking up a spot on the 40 man? DFA him.
      Is he a mascot, a good luck charm perhaps?

      1. Fangraphs will put out their final catching stats sometime in March, and it is true that Sanchez is better, but I don’t know how much. Snell obviously loves him.

        I think Sanchez will get a multi-year deal at over $10 Million per year, and that is why Barnes will stay at $3.5 MM.

        Both Barnes and Smith were not great behind the plate last year. Both need to improve in 2024.

        Last year was the worst of Barnes career, but I think he is a bounceback candidate and his teammates love him. You just can’t have him AND Rojas on the team.

  18. Talk about masterclass – Ismael Cruz’s 1st IFA group (2017) after coming from Toronto, max bonus was 300k

    Miguel Vargas
    Andy Pages
    Jorbit Vivas
    Eddys Leonard
    Guillermo Zuniga
    Darien Nunez
    Carlos Duran

    the IFA pipeline is just starting

  19. MT, imho you may want to have BJD join Bear as a fellow contributor??? All three of you are your own man, not afraid to mix it up , articulate and knowledgeable on not just baseball but a variety subjects. Just sayin.

  20. I am in Utah at a McDonalds eating lunch. Missed everything yesterday. Saw Sale was traded to the Braves by the Red Sox. All I can say about yesterday’s posts is wow. I will have to read them all when I get home sometime tonight. I will answer one directed at me. Bradley, suggest some trades that make sense with players the Dodgers might actually want who don’t bring the anchor of a big contact (Yelich) (Arenado) or actually realize when you are talking about trading for a right-handed bat, that two of the four guys you mentioned hit left-handed. Also, I never take credit for any moves the Freidman makes. Simple reason, I had not hand in the decision. Pham makes sense, but he has also had problems with his other teams. Yes, they could use a guy like Burnes, but they aren’t going to overpay for a rental. Adames makes sense defensively. His high K rate makes him a SS version of Muncy with less pop and OPS. But taking on Yelich simply to get Burnes makes them even more lefty heavy than they are. You think I have a personal vendetta against you. Totally wrong. I just think you throw crap against the wall and hope it sticks without researching the players you are suggesting. Do some research and no one will have any problem with your posts. You are a passionate fan, just not the best informed fan.

  21. Jorge Soler I think would be a guy the dodgers should add to the bench look he can play outfield some times or DH or pinch but when you need a homer in the post season you want your choices to be if the bench Taylor Hernandez Barnes or Rojas Margot your going to need a guy that can’t hit one out in the playoffs so why not Jorge Soler and he won with Atlanta git hit in playoffs. If he bats right handed that might be a good veteran guy pickup to have if Busch and Vargas don’t cut it

    1. Soler is going to get big money. The Dodgers will not sign him and he would not sign with a team that is not going to start him at DH.

      COME ON, MAN!

      1. You are right. Soler was the DH for Miami in 102 games. He only played 32 games in the outfield. He didn’t make any errors out there, but he had no assists at all. He does not possess an outfielders arm.

  22. The Dodgers are not going to spend a whole lot more money if they don’t have to and at this juncture, they DON’T HAVE TO.

  23. Can’t wait to see Lux in spring training. I still think he could end up an .850 OPS guy with more power after getting stronger last year. I think he has the athleticism and glove to play SS. The issue is his arm. Watching him play SS the other year seemed like he tried to use a quick release to make up for his weaker arm. Maybe getting stronger will improve his arm strength. Can’t wait!

    1. Hey, I hope I am wrong, and Gavin Lux can play SS at a high level. I am certain he will hit, so that would be awesome!

      But, I am from Missouri….

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