We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know

Posted By on December 20, 2023

We know what we know – that’s the easy part, but what about what we don’t know about what we don’t know? That’s the hard part. So, let’s just stick with what we know or maybe think we know.

  1. We know that Will Smith will be the starting catcher. That’s good. He’s likely one of the top three catchers in baseball and may be ready for his career year! Well, we can only hope for the last part.
  2. We know that Mookie Betts will be in the lineup.. probably at 2B, but we do not know for sure that he won’t play RF.
  3. We do know that Shohei Ohtani will be the DH. For sure…
  4. We know that Freddie Freeman will be the first baseman.
  5. We know that Max Muncy will be the third baseman. I know that he will not be as bad a third-baseman as many think. Everyone remembers his errors, and he had a few, but he also made some very good plays. Max has a lot of pride, and with a healthy offseason and another year at 3B, we should realize that he might be average or better!
  6. We know that Jason Heyward will start against RHP…probably in RF, but, it could be LF or CF… on occasion.
  7. We know that James Outman will be the starter against RHP in CF. Beyond that, we don’t know what we don’t know.
  8. We know that Manual Margot will get plenty of At Bats against LHP – We just don’t know where he will be playing when he gets them, but I suspect it will be in CF.
  9. We know that Chris Taylor will get 350 to 500 ABs as a utility man, a starter, or both.
  10. We know that Tyler Glasnow has always wanted to be a Dodger and is now finally healthy.
  11. We know that the Dodgers have way too many pitchers for just a few bullpen spots... and that is a great problem to have.
  12. We know that Justin Bieber will not be a Dodger, and neither will Shane. MLBTR wrote this in response to a question as to whether Gavin Stone and Diego Cartaya would be enough to get Bieber. Here’s what they said: “Stone or Cartaya alone both feel like too much for Bieber for me. He’s more name value than actual trade value. Two months on the shelf with an elbow injury this past season, velo down 3 mph from his peak… Strikeout rate has literally halved.” (what I have been saying all year)
  13. We know that the Dodgers let Corey Seager, Trea Turner, and Cody Bellinger walk… well maybe they didn’t let them walk – they just did not re-sign them. We also know that if they had signed all three, there would be no Shohei Ohtani on the Dodgers. Ya didn’t think about that one did ya?
  14. We know that right about now, we don’t know much more…

Do you know something I don’t?

She’s not in the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame but has had a #1 hit every decade since 1965

This article has 62 Comments

    1. We think we know that. I do not believe AF really believes that. I think he is bluffing. I will be proven right… or wrong!

        1. Maybe… Of course, the Dodgers have not intimated this, but what if this happened?

          1. Betts SS – 30+ HR/.940 OPS
          2. Ohtani DH – 40+ HR/1.000 OPS
          3. Freeman 1B – 30+ HR/.950 OPS
          4. Smith C – 25+ HR/.875 OPS
          5. Muncy 3B – 30+ HR/.850 OPS
          6. Vargas LF – 20 HR/.800 OPS
          7. Lux 2B – 20 HR/.850 OPS
          8. Outman /Margot CF – 40 HR/.800 OPS
          9. Heyward/CT3 – RF – 25 HR/.800 OPS

          That could be a devastating lineup!

          1. Great to see that you are tenaciously clinging to the notion an Outman/Margot platoon, while your son Miguelito, utterly unproven on the ML level, gets a full-time job in LF.
            Like a dog with a bone….
            I remember you declaring that Marisnick and Kike were going to platoon with Outman. Exactly why you want to demote Outman and promote Miguelito isn’t supported by the data. Every article I’ve read suggests that Margot, an excellent defender, will platoon with Heyward while also seeing action in LF and CF.
            I’m fine with Vargas getting another chance to prove himself, especially if Busch gets traded. If he hits, great! If he plays decent defense, wonderful!
            If he equaled Outman’s performance
            in ’23, would you want to find him a platoon partner?
            I count this as Miguelito’s fourth chance. First, he was called up in ’22, didn’t do much and yet was named to the postseason roster. Despite that, he was granted 2B in ’23 without a real competition. Even after he injured his hand, the Dodgers strangely stuck with him. (Why not give him time to heal?) Then he was sent back to OKC. The hope was that he could work out of his funk and come back to LA later in the season–but Vargas fell short and the Dodgers summoned Busch instead.
            In the unlikely event that both Vargas and Busch are on the roster at opening day, a platoon in LF makes sense.

  2. Not sure I concur with no3.

    Shohei might well be the DH, but I’m not sure he’ll be ready by the Opening Day.

      1. I think there must be a possibility that he will hit less.

        I seem to recall Corey taking a while to recover his stroke and definitely his power.

        I think Sho Time will really begin in 25.

    2. Which opening day are you referring to? He might not be ready for the opener in Korea on the 20th of March. But he should be ready for the home opener 8 days later. He has stated he is already working out and will be ready.

  3. I know I missed my prediction that Yamamoto would sign with the Dodgers yesterday. Rumor has it the Dodgers will extend a $250 million without mention on the # of years. I still think he will be a Dodger.

    His favorite team as a kid was the LA Dodgers …..✅
    He wants a big market…..✅
    He is friends with Ohtani…… ✅
    Dodgers history with Japanese players….✅
    Dodgers track record of playing in the post season….✅
    Japan is 12 hours from LAX and almost 15 hours from NYC….✅

    I know NY can offer much of what LA can, but I still think he chooses LA. It has also been reported his agent is in LA sorting through offers.

    If he doesn’t choose the Dodgers, AF will have to pivot and seek a trade for Cease, Burnes, Luzardo or some other not rumored pitcher to be on the trading block. If Yamamoto does choose the Dodgers, I think AF is done with perhaps the exception of a one year contract offer on a vetern reclamation SP.

      1. Unless Yamamoto is flying JFK to Tokyo 3x a week, I’ll guess that a 3 hour longer flight won’t have any impact on his decision. (unless of course he’s sitting in economy )

  5. I sent this several days ago and got no response from Blind Joe:

    Blind Joe, your pontification about Glasnow not being an ace got me thinking so I looked up his numbers from 2019 (his first year in Tampa) through 2023. Here are his numbers compared to some pretty good aces:
    Tyler Glasnow since 2019 – 3.03 ERA, 137 ERA+, 2.89 FIP

    AL CYA Winners:

    Gerrit Cole since 2019 – 2.94 ERA, 146 ERA+, 3.12 FIP

    Justin Verlander (2 CYAs in this stretch) since 2019 – 2.51 ERA, 170 ERA+, 3.22 FIP

    Robbie Ray since 2019 – 3.88 ERA, 109 ERA+, 4.26 FIP

    Shane Bieber since 2019 – 3.07 ERA, 139 ERA+, 3.12 FIP

    NL CYA Winners:

    Blake Snell since 2019 – 3.37 ERA, 120 ERA+, 3.44 FIP

    Sandy Alcantara since 2019 – 3.30 ERA, 129 ERA+, 3.71 FIP

    Corbin Burnes since 2019 – 3.30 ERA, 128 ERA+, 3.08 FIP

    2020 NL CYA winner since 2019 – 3.45 ERA, 134 ERA+, 3.98 FIP

    Jacob DeGrom since 2019 – 2.26 ERA, 182 ERA+, 2.17 FIP

    What this tells me is his numbers are better than Robbie Ray, Shane Bieber, Blake Snell, Sandy Alcantara, and Corbin Burnes. He is close to Gerrit Cole and only is significantly worse than Verlander and DeGrom. It also tells me your list of aces is very small.

    I believe we got a very talented pitcher and the only thing keeping this trade from being an absolute home run is whether he can stay on the field. That obviously remains to be seen.

    I’m always astounded by how many people on this site know so much more than the professionals paid a lot of money to make these assessments. Oh well, some things will never change.

    As you can see (oh, I forgot you are BLIND Joe), while Glasnow is not Gerrit Cole, he is really not very far from him except in the staying on the field. The numbers above clearly show he does pitch like an ace when compared to other so called aces. I guess if he is not an ace, you can count the number of aces on less than one hand.

    I think I know that your mind will not be changed by facts.

    1. JayB, you left out innings pitched which is one of the most important stats of an ace or #1 starter. In those 5 years, Cole has 875 innings pitched and Glasnow only has 330 innings pitched.

      Also, you left off 2018 when Glasnow started 11 games for TB with a 1-5 record and a 4.20 ERA.

      You also ignored the post season in which Glasnow has a 5.72 ERA.

      Glasnow has good stuff and great physical tools. He may become an ace in the future. But he will be 31 this year and most ace pitchers peak before age 31. I view it as a risky move to pay an unproven pitcher coming off TJ $30 million per year with $140 million guaranteed.

      1. Yes, and now we are supposed to believe that Glasnow is fully healed and won’t break down again.
        I hope that’s true.

  6. Waiting for action is the worst. Bellinger still seeking a deal for around 200 million, but his options are shrinking. A lot of fringe moves, but no major announcements yet. Yamamoto said to be making his decision by Monday. Some team will have a nice, but expensive gift in their stocking.

    1. I would love to have Belli back, but it is very unlikely.

      He could play CF – Platoon Outman and Vargas in LF and trade Margot.

        1. Was he extended a Qualifying Offer?

          If not I’d be on board as he certainly seemed to turn a corner last season.

          Yamamoto would be the icing on the cake.

      2. Belli’s a free agent. A trade is not required.
        I don’t see it happening.
        The bigger priority is starting pitching.

  7. Well, we know the Dodgers are one of the richest organizations in Major League Baseball and according to today’s article in the LA Time, written by Jack Harris, they may be on the verge of becoming a lot richer.

    The headline reads: $1 Billion boon? How Shohei Ohtani’s contract could make Dodgers MLB financial kings.

    Financial experts point out the Dodgers could wind up making between $800 million to $1 billion over the next 10 years.

    So, yes, they are players in the Yamamoto sweepstakes. Will they land him? No idea, depends on what he considers important moving ahead. The Yanks and Mets seem very determined to sign him. This all may conclude within the next few days.

    We also know the Dodgers may be looking for two more pitchers. That’s according to Brandon Gomes. One by free agency, the other in trade?

    They still have serious interest in a couple of pitchers who may be traded in the near future. Cease or Burnes? That according to multiple sources.

    We also know that Friedman doesn’t want to overpay to acquire either one. But they still have prospects other teams might really want. Vargas or Busch, one of the pitchers not named Sheehan or Miller. The ask will be high. Maybe Lux gets thrown in if they make a deal with the Brewers. Mark would then get his wish and get Adames. But I like Lux. We’ll see if he can return to form. That’s the big question. They could take Yelich and that massive contract. But that would block Vargas and or Busch.

    After the interview with Clayton Kershaw we know his rehab is going well and he expects to pitch again at some point this summer and yes, it sounds like he is interested in returning to the Dodgers, excited by the moves they are making, Ohtani and Glasnow. He’s also excited to pitch pain free.

    We know everyone on this site has a wish list, including Mark. So many things still up in the air, but the Dodgers are remaining aggressive.

    Apparently we know that all the experts think Yamamoto is the real deal. But I did hear a former GM add a word of caution. Supposedly, according to Harris the Dodgers are preparing a bid of $250 – 300 million, including posting fee.

    Not sure Mark has weighed in on Yamamoto. Any thoughts on him?

  8. An old man was eating in a truck stop when three rough-looking bikers walked in. As they passed the old man, the first biker pushed his cigarette into the old man’s pie, then laughed and took a seat at the counter. The second biker picked up the old man’s milk and spit into it. The third biker turned over the old man’s plate before joining the others at the counter.

    Without saying a word to the laughing bikers, the old man put his money down, got up, and left the diner. One of the bikers said to the waitress, “Not much of a man, was he?”

    The waitress replied,” Not much of a truck driver either. He just backed his big rig over three motorcycles!”

    1. A little narrow thinking there Cassidy. The guy is a stud. And he makes the Dodgers better and after all, isn’t that what the fans really want? If he improves their chances of winning a World Series, I am all in. It is not my money.

      2. Hoornstra’s actually pretty good.
        Can’t we move on?

        PS: I know Cassidy was joking, but I’d really hate for this to be a lingering thing. Let’s remember people for their accomplishments, not their mistakes.

  11. One report I like has the Marlins shopping southpaw Jesus Luzardo.
    He’s really good. As I recall it, the Marlins got him in a trade for Arias, the hit machine. He still has a couple years of team control on his contract.
    Another plus: the Pitching Ninja on YouTube calls him “the Jesus Lizard.”
    Whether or not the Dodgers land Yamamoto, Luzardo seems like a really good trade target.
    Dodgers have a surplus of talent that deserves a major league shot but won’t get it on the Dodgers.
    Busch + Knack for Luzardo?

    1. I love Luzardo, but I think you are about halfway there with Busch and Knack. Add Stone and Cartya. Jesus has 3 more years of control. I would still do that deal at that price.

      1. You are probably right. I think it would be easy to add Cartaya.
        Not sure who the extra pitcher should be,,,

  13. We also know that AF will be there for 10 more years based on the clauses in Ohtani’s contract

  14. Margot is a below-average defender in CF at this point in his career and much stronger in RF. Last year in 70 innings playing CF he was -2 OAA. For comparison purposes Outman was +9!! Margot’s best position by far is RF and last year he was +4 OAA playing that position. Will he play some CF from time to time ….. of course but his main job will be platooning with Heyward in RF despite what Mark believes.

  15. Wait. Where did you read that about Cartaya?

    I thought his issues were mostly his swing became too long.

    Would love to know if there was a fitness issue.

  17. Mets To Acquire Adrian Houser, Tyrone Taylor From Brewers
    By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2023 at 3:04pm CDT

    Does that mean they’re out on Yamamoto 🙂

  19. Morosi and Slusser both think Adames and Burnes will be traded separately.

    With San Fran and Toronto (also with a local reporter saying this) likely for Adames.

    1. Since Toronto already has a very good shortstop, what are they trying to tell us?

      Is Bichette about to be traded?
      Would Adames move to 3B or 2B?

      1. It makes no sense why the Jays would trade Bichette… especially to get a guy who is not as good with less control.

  21. Here’s a key piece of info:

    Yamamoto’s agent, Joel Wolfe, also represents Edwin Díaz and Kodai Senga.

    1. Time to move on from Yamamoto. Mets or Yankees will wind up with him. I would sign the other Japanese lefty pitcher Shota Imanaga or trade for the lafty Florida pitcher Jesus Luzardo. The Dodger bid will not nearly be enough for Yamamoto.

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