Many fans around today know little of the game of baseball’s history. Its past is filled with colorful characters. Some performed at levels today’s stars will never reach, especially on the pitching side of the game.
It is a safe bet that no one ever approaches 511 wins. I would say 300 is out of reach in today’s game. Only two players in the history of the game have achieved 4000 hits. Rose and Cobb. One is in the Hall; the other is ostracized. It is also unusual that both of their names contain only four letters.
People always argue over who is the Greatest of All Time, the GOAT, as it were. I have come to realize that you really cannot compare players from different eras. Babe Ruth held the career home run title until Henry Aaron passed it on April 8th, 1974, against the Dodgers in Atlanta with Al Downing on the mound.
The Dodgers lost that game, 7-4. It was their first loss of the season—almost 40 years. Babe retired in 1935. Aaron held the record until Bonds passed him in August of 2007. 33 years. There are four players in the 700 home run club. Bonds, Aaron, Ruth and Pujols. The chances of anyone joining them are pretty slim.
Stanton is the only active player on a roster right now, with more than 400. And he is 33 years old. Mike Trout, at age 31, has 368. Nelson Cruz, who has not officially retired, has 464, but his age, 42, means his chances of even getting to 500 are slim.
Records are, of course, made to be broken. But some of them will never be broken like DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak. Hershiser’s 59-inning scoreless streak has little chance of going down, too.
The Hall of Fame is tasked with preserving baseball’s history. They do an excellent job of it. I just wish that it was centrally located instead of up in New York.
It would be nice if they redid the traveling exhibit like they did several years ago. It would be really nice if there was a Dodger Museum at the Stadium.
Baseball for years, avoided change, especially radical change. Over the last several years, that has turned around. Instant replay, the DH in both leagues. Restructuring the playoff format. Then, last season, there were bigger bases, a pitch clock, and a limit on the number of times a pitcher can attempt a pick-off. And soon, an ABS system of some sort.
Analytics are used to evaluate the players now. The stats on the backs of a player’s baseball card are not the end all way to get a player’s value. But you still get arguments started because there are some old-school guys like myself who like the old way of evaluating a player.
I use the eye test. I always have. If I haven’t seen a player play, I find it hard to evaluate his talent. I think and believe there are people in the game who can watch a player and know, this kid is going to be a star. I still believe in the value of someone’s batting average.
Many today use WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. They also use advanced metrics to measure a player’s defense. The stat geeks don’t believe in fielding percentage because it is based on the number of chances and a success rate. They like factoring in a player’s range and chances he gets to balls in the hole. Defensive runs saved is another stat they use a lot.
Again, I will take the eye test. I watch a guy often enough I can tell if he is a good fielder or not. And it is pretty easy to tell when a player is mediocre, too. They just do not make the easy plays.
It is impossible to compare guys who wore gloves that were barely bigger than their hands against guys who use gloves large enough to catch a ball a couple of feet above the wall.
I would imagine even Brooks Robinson, who used a glove relatively small by today’s standards, would have made plays like he did with the glove Pie Traynor was using.
Even the old outfielder’s gloves were not much larger than one’s hand. Catcher equipment today is far superior to what even Yogi Berra used.
Hitters are not afraid to dig in on pitchers now, and they wear more padding than they used to wear in the NFL. Big D would be livid. The trouble is, if he threw at a hitter now, he would be tossed from the game. Umpires today have really short fuses.
The game is different, but the idea is the same. Win the pennant, go to the World Series, and bring home the title. Dodger fans want a full-season win. Two of their last three Championships came in shortened seasons. Fans of other teams berate the team and say they can’t win in a full season. Which, as we all know, is sour grapes because their team did not win.
So let us hope the Dodgers put together a team that can write some baseball history. It will be fun to watch.
One final comment from yesterday on Ohtani and Soto:
It was said:
Since we’ve been comparing Ohtani and Soto, here’s another stat.
Career WAR
Ohtani 34.7
Soto 28.6
I presume they were using Fangraphs WAR which is different from Baseball-Reference (either is OK), but here are the oWAR stats for Soto and Ohtani from Baseball-Reference (oWAR is Offensive WAR):
Ohtain has a career 19.4 oWAR
Soto has a career 30.5 oWAR
Just as we cannot assume Walker Buehler will be a great pitcher again, we cannot assume Ohtani will also pitch at a high level again, so only oWAR really comes into play, and Soto is far better and far younger and probably far cheaper than Ohtani!
I rest my case! 😉
The Dodgers just have to wait a year for Soto.
And hope he becomes available, and wants to come to LA, and that no other big markets drive the market.
Just a few small variables.
I’m going to do a little more “cherry-picking” re Ohtani…
I’ll just quote this passage from a Dodgers fan site:
Presumably long-term Ohtani will be able to continue to both pitch and hit, but for 2024 only a signing team will have to settle for landing only the hitting Ohtani, who over the last three seasons has batted .277/.379/.585 and ranks fourth in the majors in both home runs (124) and wRC+ (157).
Ohtani the batter would be able to finagle a very lucrative contract if he never pitched again. Probably not the $360 million over nine years that Aaron Judge got last offseason, but not terribly far off.
Consider that Ohtani over the last three seasons also has a 2.84 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and 151 ERA+, averaging 25 starts and 143 innings since the start of 2021….
The Dodgers in 2023 did not have any pitcher with 25 starts or 143 innings….
So that’s all about Ohtani’s last three seasons, which resulted in two MVPs and a runnerup to Judge.
How many MVPs did Soto win over the last three seasons?
Zero.
Where did he finish in the MVP voting?
He was second to Harper in ’21! Nice! But he didn’t get a single point ’22. And in ’23, he finished in sixth place in ’23, between Corbin Carrol and Austin Riley.
Juan Soto is a very, very good at playing baseball. As Chico Escuela might put it, “Baseball been berry, berry good to Soto.”
And Ohtani is great.
But some people would rather sign Soto than Ohtani?
.
If we sign Ohtani, it’s as a DH.
He’ll be pitching again in ‘25. Several pitchers have returned after two surgeries. We can hope that Buhler bounces back the way Eovaldi did.
I totally agree with you. oWAR is a better stat, since defense stats are flawed. In Ohtani’s case, it includes his pitching and there are no other guys that are both a position player (I include DH) and pitcher.
But, Soto is a cancer. An egomaniac, self-centered, hothead.
When did you meet him?
If that’s the case, then when did most, if not all here meet Machado and Tatis?
He has a World Championship under his belt. I think he would be fine under the influence of Freddie and Mookie. I like guys with fire!
I’d love Juan Soto.
From what I hear, he’s not a cancer and but is actually a really respected teammate, who’s stuck in a shit show in SD. I’m sure he wants out badly as this is NOT what he expected. I think he really expected to be a Dodger in 2022.
By the way, does anyone ‘know” what our offer was, if any, for Soto before San Diego got him?
As much as I want Ohtani, a lot of it is more for business, financial, worldwide Dodger Brand reasons than Soto could ever provide. But as players, both are all world and I’d be ecstatic to have either.
Talk about cherry-picking. …
Here you are leaping to the conclusion that Ohtani will never again be an effective pitcher. What we can assume is that Soto will never be an effective pitcher.
I would not bet against Ohtani. He came back from his first TJ strong.
Nathan Eovaldi had two TJs and came back as good, or better, than ever.
While you may not have much faith in modern surgical procedures, it should be obvious that AF has plenty of faith. You think he’s a smart guy, right? As I recall it, he drafted Buhler in the first round even though it was known he’d be undergoing TJ surgery. AF has signed guys while they are rehabbing from surgery too.
Will Buhler rebound like Eovaldi? Nothing is guaranteed in life–but the Dodgers are not betting against Buhler, and they won’t be betting against Ohtani either.
And if Ohtani can’t pitch, do you really think he’d be unable to play left field?
It’s not like he’s JD Martinez.
Here is my prediction:
1. Look for the Dodgers to target players who only cost money, not player or draft collateral.
2. Look for the Dodgers to overpay on some of the Asian Players, like Yamamoto, Imanaga, and Lee.
3. Look for a reunion with JDM or JT. Not both.
4. Look for another RH Power Bat (in addition to the DH) like Teoscar Hernández on a one-year deal.
5. Look for the Dodgers to keep their core of young players intact.
6. Do not look for a big trade… maybe some smaller ones, involving Barnes, Yarbrough, and some others for lower-level prospects.
All other “experts” say that the Dodgers are the Favorite to sign Ohtani. Conventional wisdom is often wrong!
Teoscar will never be available on 1 year deal. Will probably get 3 but a minimum of 2 and it won’t be from AF.
No thanks the guy is a strikeout machine. 211 last season. They have enough swing and miss as it is.
My original thought. Yamamoto and Imanaga. Lee and Hoskins in the outfield with Outman. But then AF got Heyward. Maybe for the bench.
Ooops I forgot Martinez or J. Turner for DH.
If that’s a little too much money then give Busch a shot at DH instead of Martinez and J. Turner.
Conventional wisdom is often right too.
My prediction:
1, The Dodgers will made at least one trade, perhaps two, to secure a frontline starter like Burnes and Cease.
2. Look for the Dodgers to “overpay” for Ohtani, and possibly another Asian player. But I don’t think it would be Lee, as SPs are the greaterDHs need.
3. Do not look for a reunion with former Dodger DHs who, so far, are defying Father Time.
4. Yes, a RH power bat would be nice–and perhaps it belongs to Adames. And maybe Senzel in a UT role.
5. Do not expect AF to keep the “core of young players intact.” Hoarding prospects makes no sense when there aren’t enough positions to go around and there is a great need to acquire starting pitching.
6. Look for a big trade. AF is pretty good at this stuff. Why run a baseball team if you don’t make a big trade every once in a while?
Nice post, Bear.
About 15 years ago I was taking my boy to a skatepark and discovered an old-timey baseball club play at the ballfield nearby. They had small gloves, or no gloves, and used a ball so soft it was deformed by a hit. I was told they could find such old-timey baseball stuff online. It was strange and kind of cool. Yes, the game has changed a lot. Very difficult to compare eras.
Thanks I appreciate it.
if memory serves me right, wasn’t bonds the first or one of the first to pad up? too bad drysdale wasn’t pitching when big head bonds played! i’m sure he could have found a few unprotected spots to throw at! can Hoskins play left field Bear? that would be a big power right handed bat , which would really make that lineup deep! all this waiting to see if AF does anything is painful! i saw this morning they might go after giolita,and nick martinez from the friars. all these rumors about ohthani, cease , burnes, adamas, may turn out to be just that , rumors ! he probably signs 2 reclamation pitchers and resigns JD Martinez, and off we go! hope i’m wrong, but chances are i’m not.
Hoskins can play left and first base. He is a 30-homer guy when healthy. He is 30 years old. He has only played 165 games in the outfield in his career. But with a full spring training of work there, he could be very serviceable. I would prefer him over Hernandez who strikes out way too much. 211 times last year. I read the Martinez rumor myself. The only pitcher it seems they are targeting in trade so far is Cease. One pundit thinks the Dodgers will sign Yamamoto to a six-year deal. It will all get a lot clearer next week. And remember this, the Dodgers start the season early with 2 games in Seoul Korea in March. They will most likely have a split squad for the two games.
Hoskins will be in demand, especially from teams who need a first baseman.
If
Dodgers have several options for LF under contract, including Taylor, Vargas, Busch and DeLuca.. Heyward could platoon in LF if Mookie returns to RF full-time. If we’re lucky, Pages will have a breakthrough and earn a shot.
I think the Dodgers have to sign Yamamoto and will. The Giants will offer Ohtani more money so we’ll see if he truly wants to play in October. Then open up the prospect bank and go get Robert and Cease! That would be an awesome lineup for next year!
The Giants do not have all that many prospects to trade. Only a couple in the MLB top 100. What they do have is cash. Most think Zaidi is going to make a serious run at Cody Bellinger since the Yankees seem to be backing away from him. Seems they are a little worried about his hard-hit rate which was down. The Giants have the same problem every team has right now, pitching.
I miss the old days when it wasn’t all about money.
I will tune into to the MLB winter meetings coverage and they will talk about contracts and money non-stop. The players never live up to the dollars spent. How can they?
I’m ready to move on. Seems like we now judge players based on the size of their contracts and a bunch of stats most fans don’t really understand. It was easier when we measured statistical success based on average, runs scored, homeruns, RBI and stolen bases. Basically the back of the baseball card.
I was on a cruise last week and wearing a Dodgers shirt, this guy asked me if baseball and hockey were dying sports. I don’t know squat about hockey. But I told him baseball is still very popular, but it has become a regional game. He mentioned the World Series with Arizona and Texas, didn’t draw much interest nationally, TV ratings weren’t good.
That’s true, but there was a lot of excitement in Arizona and Texas. He was older and remembered the days when everybody watched or listened to the World Series. Those were the days. Everywhere you went there were transistor radios with the game on. People would stop and asked what the score was.
I’m not so sure you could convince Dodger fans that it would be a good idea to pass on Shohei Ohtani and wait another year for Soto.
All things considered, it might be wise to pursue structuring a roster without Ohtani on it, depending, of course, on the amount of revenue he can actually generate for the club from the international market. Not that Ohtani’s bat wouldn’t play up, but hey, it’s a lot of money, boat anchor money. It could handicap a team for years.
Yes, the Times have definitely changed.
Nice write-up, Bear.
Thanks Buff. Yep, it is all about the cash. I just wonder how much a guy like Duke Snider would be worth today. Koufax would own half of the team.
Yes, the O’Malley family would have become partners with Koufax.
Let’s not pooh-pooh players making the most the can.
Talent should be rewarded,
50+ mil a year is crazy money, but how much extra revenue would Ohtani bring to the Dodgers. How much would his signing increase the net worth of the franchise? Only the Dodgers can answer those questions. What’s the net cost of his contract? We soon should have an answer to those questions.
I believe that the Dodgers have assembled their Global Partnership Department. You can look at their names and see they are very diverse over many cultures, including several Asian Cultures.
For Ohtani AND Yamamoto?!!!!!!
Emilio Pagan has just signed a two-year deal with the Reds. Was with the Padres last season. RH reliever.
Coaching staff takes another hit as Tim Laker moves on to the Angels. Former Dodger hitting coach, Brant Brown leaves the Marlins for the Mariners. Since Ng was let go, seems like many in Miami want out.
The Dodgers have been involved in global marketing for some time. Go back to the days of Walter O’Malley when he had the team playing in Japan. Now the international marketplace offers greater opportunities and the chance to create new revenue streams. Look no further than the movie industry. California is on the cutting edge of Asia market and the Dodgers are front and center in LA. Makes a lot of sense.
I agree with most of your predictions, Mark. But I do believe the Dodgers will make a major trade if everything lines up
But why try to sign one of the MLB free agents, which will cost you a pick and more. They could just stick to international players, like Yamamoto, and it’s only money. Yah, a lot of it, but that would be the case with most free agents.
That would be the smart play, Mark, but it wouldn’t soothe the fan base. Only Ohtani does that. This thing has been building for over a year. Pretty much all you see and hear is the expectation that Ohtani will sign with the Dodgers. The law of failing to meet expectations will look pretty ugly.
Still, the Dodgers could build a championship roster without spending whatever enormous amount that Shohei would require.
Bringing JD or Justin back would probably work. Adding another bat wouldn’t hurt.
Fun Article Bear. Like you, I allow my eyes to evaluate a player. I do look at batting stats but I pay practically no attention to Defensive Metrics. My eyes tell me all I need to know.
Sometime you need to stay with a player to form a correct opinion. Hunter Pence caught my eye because he threw funny and looked awkward on the field. It took me a little more time to see what a nice player he was despite not looking conventional. But mostly it doesn’t take long to evaluate a players actions and arm.
You mentioned how equipment has changed the game. As us old-times remember, the hinged fielders gloves change everything. Especially the hinged catcher’s mitt. Look at Yogi Berra’s old mitt that was shaped like a donut; round with a pocket in the center, and no hinge. It forced catchers to catch with 2 hands. And that got their “meat hand” in jeopardy of a foul tip more often.
The hinged catcher’s mitt changed how catchers caught. Johnny Bench could then catch with one hand and protect his meat hand behind his body. That changed the entire “catch and transfer” mechanics for catchers, leading to the modern techniques.
Imagine a catcher trying to make that Buster Posey mandatory one handed “sweep-tag” at home now with one of those old donut mitts.
The outfielders also have gloves now that challenge the rule that the maximum glove size in MLB is 13 inches.
I also think we will see a new rule limiting the length of a sliding mitt used by baserunners.
Thanks again Bear.
Thanks Phil. As you know, I love the history. Remember that stance Rod Carew used? Many wondered how he could possibly hit the ball. I also remember the first submarine style pitcher I ever saw. That was strange. I used to experiment with different batting stances when I was a kid. I tried the Musial, almost screwed myself into the ground. I ended up doing the Duke Snider. It was the best for me.
The Dodgers are hiring Nelson Cruz as an advisor, per a report from Tenchy Rodriguez of Z101. This was confirmed by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, who adds that Cruz will be working for the organization in Latin America.
That is a freaking stroke of genius!
It sure is Mark. The Mariners had some nice DH’s in their history. Edgar Martinez and Nellie Cruz were so fundamentally solid. Both had short strokes, superb balance and used the ballpark. Nelson will be a great addition for the organization especially working with young player. Great hire.
I believe the idea of OF Randy Arozarena has been raised.
It’s a report, too:
https://twitter.com/AzoulayHaron/status/1729943662098829773
SO!
Who says no?
Busch, Rushing and Stone
FOR
Arozarena, Glasnow and Mason Montgomery?
The ridiculously fun trade value simulator says it’s a go!
I don’t get peoples love of Arozarena. He’s a .250 hitter with 20hr power. He’s a good fielder. Not great. Busch and/or Vargas could produce that in the OF. I don’t get why people love the guy. He’s basically a league average outfielder.
Glasnow has pitched over 100 innings exactly 2x in 8 seasons. He pitched 120 last year. Which was a career high. The first three letters in his last name are ironic. Because of you add a second “s” that’s what he’s made of.
I’d give up Busch and Stone. At the most. No way Busch and Rushing. Even then I wouldn’t exactly be excited. I think they’re are which better trades out there.
If only batting average mattered!
Arozarena has years of control left, OPSs, on average .820, with an average OPS+ of 126.
If Busch or Vargas could do that from LF, then you are right and we don’t have a discussion to have.
I don’t get why ppl keep talking about glasnow? He is injury prone and for some reason ppl think he can command a good haul?? That’s a head scratcher for me….
People love Arozarena because he’s exciting and plays with joy. A lot of players scowl, and Arozarena is often smiling. His swagger is very different from Soto’s and some other guys. He has also had some big-game moments, starting with the WS.
The Dodgers could use some of the energy and joy that Arozarena brings game after game.
That said, I don’t see him as a great fit for the Dodgers. There are a lot of options for LF already under contract.
ME!
Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports trade talks regarding Dylan Cease have intensified in the last two days and that a deal is increasingly possible prior to next week’s Winter Meetings in Nashville.
Morosi adds that the Braves are among the finalists in the Cease sweepstakes, which will likely produce significant fantasy ramifications. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier this week that Atlanta was among teams pursuing the upper-echelon starter. The 27-year-old fantasy ace won’t reach free agency until 2026, but is arbitration-eligible this offseason for the first time in his career, which certainly plays a role in the rebuilding White Sox’ decision-making process. He compiled an underwhelming 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 214/79 K/BB ratio across 177 innings (33 starts) this past season, but was one of the American League’s premier hurlers the previous year when he finished second in junior circuit Cy Young Award balloting.
Pretty smart of the Sox to have the Dodgers bidding against the Braves.
While I like the idea of Cease, I hope Dodgers also pursue Burnes.
Max Muncy
CT3
Freddie
Mookie
Heyward
… all are in their 30s. The Dodgers will be loathe to trade Busch, Vargas, Rushing, Pages, Cartaya and others as they seek to get younger.
All of this trade talk are the ramblings of beat writers trying to increase ratings in the offseason.
This time of year they are worse than pathological liars!
Don’t you want to bring back JDM or Turner for DH?
That won’t make the Dodgers younger.
Just for a year!
I don’t want to trade Rushing!
But I do enjoy Arozarena. He’d provide some excitement.
Glasnow is a maybe. I assume that the Dodger brain trust has a firm idea of which SPs to pursue.
Dodgers can trade from catching depth, however.
Cartaya for Burnes?
I’ll just say it now. Everyone seems to need pitching and it’s going to drive the price up on everyone. If we try to cherry pick good deals we’ll end up with nothing. You have to to take a chance to acquire top level guys, it’s just the way it is. If you’re content with the team as is, then so be it, but it’s going to take the so called “dope fiend” move to land most of these guys. We were already out bid for Nola (although he may have only wanted to re-sign with Philly)
Yep. The price of pitching is going up.
That’s one reason why the Dodgers should work the trade market, where their deep farm system gives them an advantage against other teams.
What’s the point of being AF if you aren’t going to do some wheeling and dealing?
Jon Weisman, back working with the Dodgers, just posted this from the stadium.
Is it a good omen? Or maybe Vin saying “hi” on his birthday? Or both.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GAJDFttboAAgIWE?format=jpg&name=small
That was a very good move by the Dodgers and Jon is highly qualified.
Gorgeous photo.
Per TheAthletic:
The Yankees and Padres continue to talk Juan Soto, tho NYY is (so far) reluctant to part w/ its highest-end young talent, and they’re still keeping tabs on Cody Bellinger, whose early ask has been described as very high, source tells The Athletic
A couple of signings, Garrett Hampson signs with the Royals. Was with the Marlins last season. Mets sign Luis Severino to a one-year deal. Dodgers showing interest in free agent Seth Lugo. Cease talks intensifying. Might be dealt by the weekend. Braves considered front runner. He is a Georgia native. Former Angel, Jaime Barria signed a minor league deal with Cleveland. Mets also signed infielder Joey Wendle to a one-year deal. Two relievers, Penn Murfee and Jackson Stephens signed by the Braves to major league deals.
Reliever Nick Martinez signed a two-year deal with the Reds.