He’s Not Superman!

Posted By on November 11, 2023

No one has ever seen a 30-year-old Shoehei Ohtani play because Shohei will not be 30 years old until July 5th, 2024. However, we did see a 29-year-old Ohtani play, and we saw him tear his UCL and then go on the IL with an oblique strain, which would have likely kept him out of the playoffs… had the Angels made it there. Shohei Ohtani is a generational talent, but he is also human – he is not Superman! He is aging, like us all. None of us can do what we did in our twenties, in our thirties. This is the second time Ohtani has had UCL Surgery, and just like Walker Buehler, there is no guarantee that he will pitch at a high level again.

Everyone seems to revere Ohtani as “God-like,” and while he is an amazing talent, I think any team that is determined to sign him is going to regret it very much. I believe you are going to see him start to break down at much more regular intervals. Yes, he is a freak! But he is human, and as we age, injuries are part of the process. Our bodies do not recover as quickly. Ohtani credits sleep with being a recovery mechanism, and he sleeps up to 12 hours a night! He considers sleep as a “recovery” method… and he is right! Sleep is a recovery method that works. I have successfully used it to recover quickly from back surgery and cardioversion, which successfully eliminated A-Fib. I know that it works, but it still will not make Ohtani Superman.

OK, I am going to say something, and here it is: Andrew Friedman will not give Ohtani a contract that hamstrings the Dodgers! Now, what that means exactly, I do not know. But here is what I do know: The Investment Group that bought the Dodgers paid the most ever as a group for the team (over $2 Billion Dollars), and while it is appreciating in value, investors want, no… demand, an annual return on their capital, and the Dodgers deliver that! I think that anytime the Dodgers sign a player, they have to ask, “What is the worst-case scenario if we sign this player?”

What is the worst-case scenario with Shohei? OK, (1) He never recovers enough to be a successful pitcher again (OK, you could live with that); (2) He frequently is injured and maybe only averages 110 games a year; and (3) his power production goes down. If he was making $300 Million over ten years, you might be able to live with that, but you can’t pick and choose when injuries occur. However, if he commands $400 to $500 Million over 10 to 12 years, that is a contract that will hamstring the Dodgers.

See, what Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers are doing is different than any other team in baseball: They want to be relevant and contend every year… and they have done that for the past ten years, and there is no end in sight to that dominant streak. No other team in baseball does that. The fact that they have won only one World Series and were cheated out of another one in that run is not lost on intelligent fans. The morons don’t get it. I am not going to get into that aspect right now, as you can’t tell really stupid people anything! However, I am good with that. I would rather enjoy a winning team, year after year, than win a World Series and then tank for five years! You may feel differently… and that is your prerogative! With the way the playoffs have changed, it is a crapshoot to a large degree, and if you can’t understand that… especially after this season, the lights are on, but nobody is home.

So, unless Andrew Friedman comes up with some very creative way of mitigating risk while signing Ohtani, I do not think it is prudent for the Dodgers to do so, and even if the Dodgers do sign him, I will still abide by that. I do not think it is wise. Prove me wrong! You can’t because it is just an opinion. However, life goes on… and what should the Dodgers really do this Winter?

Well, I now understand that Milwaukee is going into a full rebuild, so I think a Burnes, Adames, Yelich trade makes a lot of sense. Taking Yelich is what makes the deal happen at a much lower prospect cost. I would like to see if Adames and Burnes could be extended before the trade. Maybe a two-day window to negotiate a deal would be prudent.

Yes, I know Christian Yelich has a weak arm, but he is a star player (not a superstar) who would bolster the Dodgers lineup. He makes approximately $26 Million a year until 2029, which is his age 37 season. He went through some Bellinger-Type hitting woes (just not as bad a few years ago) and last season hit .278 with a .370 OB% and a .818 OPS. He also hit 19 HR, 34 Doubles, and stole 28 bases! He’s a Freddie Freeman Clone on the bases – just faster! He would fit nicely into LF and could take over at 1B in a couple of years if Freddie goes to DH.

Corbin Burnes is the centerpiece of this trade, and as such, it is imperative that the Dodgers extend him. Burnes is the Ace the Dodgers need. He will not be 29 until next October, so if you really want this, you will have to extend him. I’d say that six to seven years for $180 Million is about right. He had just over $8 Million last year and will be a Free Agent in 2025. Lock him up now. He is not a Boras Client, so there is that.

Willy Adames also has the same agent as Corbin (CCA Sports). He just turned 28 years old. He had a down year but is a solid shortstop who could benefit from the Dodgers hitting coaches. If the Dodgers could lock him up as well, that would be great, but if not, he will be a free agent in 2025 as well. My plan is to keep Lux and play him at 2B this season, but if Adames moves on in 2025, Lux should be healthy enough to play SS.

HERE’S THE TRADE: Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Andy Pages, Michael Busch, Yenier Fernandez, and Miguel Rojas (they need a temporary SS) for Burnes, Adames and Yelich. No more salary comes back to Milwaukee as they are trying to tank. Rojas only cost $5 Million. I would be willing to add Cartaya if needed, but not Rushing.

This enables the Dodgers to spend on other pitchers as well, such as LH Shota Imanaga who may command $15 to $18 Million per year. AF could also sign Jack Flaherty as a rehab project for $12 Million, and another part of my plan is to sign Justin Turner for $12 Million. The Dodgers have $100 Million to spend this offseason. Here’s what they have spent under this plan:

  • Burnes – $30 Million
  • Yelich – $26 Million
  • Imanaga – $18 Million
  • Flaherty – $12 Million
  • Justin Turner – $13 Million

That’s $99 Million, but I subtracted Rojas at $5 Million and added $10 Million to that for Kike Hernandez. I am bringing back JT to DH along with Max, although Max can play 2B and 3B if someone falters. Let’s look at the lineup:

  1. Betts RF (R)
  2. Freeman 1B (L)
  3. Smith C (R)
  4. Muncy/JT DH (L-R)
  5. Yelich LF (L)
  6. Adames SS (R)
  7. Outman CF (L)
  8. Vargas 3B (R)
  9. Lux 2B (L)

Bench: CT3, Kike, Max or JT, Barnes or Feduccia, DeLuca

Starting Pitchers:

  1. Burnes
  2. Miller
  3. Imanaga
  4. Buehler
  5. Pepiot
  6. Flaherty (Tyler Anderson or Thor?)
  7. Sheehan

Plenty of depth there.

The above lineup is balanced, and I chose to trade Busch over Vargas because of two things: (1) The Dodgers have a plethora of LH Hitters, and (2) Vargas has a lot less swing and miss. Personally, I think Vargas’ ceiling is higher! If he can’t cut, itMax becomes the full-time third baseman. I think that is a balanced, strong lineup… from top-to-bottom, and most importantly, it is a team that does not rely on a “Superman!”

New Read

I started reading a new book last night. To the best of my knowledge, it is only available on Kindle. While I do like reading books, I also enjoy the freedom of a Kindle. I sometimes travel a lot, and a Kindle gives me hundreds of books at my fingertips. I will let you know how I like this book. After the first chapter… it seems to be AWESOME!

Future Value: The Battle for Baseball’s Soul and How Teams Will Find the Next Superstar[Kindle Edition]
By: Eric Longenhagen, Kiley McDaniel, Keith Law

By the way, Eric asked what I had against stats. I have nothing against them. I use them as a measuring tool, but not the only tool! Only using stats is like driving your car through the rear-view mirror. It’s good to know what is in the rear-view mirror, but a car should be driven through the vision the windshield gives. Stats are history. Growing prospects is never done in the past tense. It’s all about today and tomorrow. Just looking at stats gives you much the same view that you have here… and the smell is not good!

Announcement

Next week, I am going back to work. I am moving back into my business office from my home office after nearly a year. I will be 70 a week from today. My health is now great. The A-Fib, high blood pressure, and back pain are gone. The cardioversion worked perfectly, and Uflexa injections helped my knee. I feel great, so I am going to work from 9-5 (I used to work from 6 AM to whenever). I still will have my home office, but I have fun doing what I do. We have grown at a 30% pace year-over-year over the past three years, and there is no end in sight. I am having a lot of fun working alongside my son, brother, nephew, stepdaughter, and son-in-law.

In case you don’t know what we do, here is our ABOUT US PAGE. So, I will curtail my involvement somewhat with LAdodgerTalk. How much remains to be seen, but I will still be here… maybe in a more limited role. When we started this company twenty years ago, I thought maybe we would be a two million dollar a year business… then it was five million. Now, 21 years later, we are shooting for $100 Million. Be careful what you wish for and love what you do is the best advice I can give.

Godspeed to everyone and Happy Belated Veterans Day to all of you who served!

This article has 49 Comments

  1. Right after graduating from Quinnipiac University in 1968 home of the 2023 Division 1 National Hockey Champions, I served two years active duty In the Naval Reserves and 4 years Inactive duty. It was at the time of the Vietnam War. It was quite a learning experience.

  2. Happy veterans’ day to all that served! My dad was in army in early 50’s. Thankful to all who gave their lives to protect us and to the ones still with us. Glad you’re doing well Mark! I started a stem cell treatment for my knee yesterday. I’m excited for this so I can hopefully avoid a knee replacement. Still playing basketball at 65, though knee limitations make it tough sometimes. I really like your trade ideas with Milwaukee. I believe Yelich has a lot more in his tank. It would be a significant upgrade from this past season. Burnes, Miller, and a healthy Walker is exciting. I have very high hopes for Pepiot! I think he’s a 3-4 easy. They need a left-handed starter though. They’ll probably fix that soon. Ohtani? The bat is so tempting! but, I agree, the arm scares the heck out of me! 8 years at 40-45 per year, yes. anything not, walk away! And to beat the hell out of that dead horse, make Barnes part of any deal, or make him a coach, he’d make a good one! Hope your family is doing well Bear! We had a tragedy this week, our 25-year-old nephew ended his own life. Sadly, he left his parents and siblings behind with no goodbyes. bless everyone.

    1. That is so sad. No doubt, depression was a factor. I had a good friend who experienced the same. No warning and looking back, he still can’t see anything. He has become a very vocal advocate for people like his son.

    2. Thanks, the kids are coping, and it is getting better. But being so close and living that close to one’s mother, the attachment is strong. They will be fine. It just takes time. Sorry for your family’s loss.

  3. I would agree the Dodgers won’t give Ohtani a contract that handicaps the organization. But what does that mean? What would handicap the Milwaukee Brewers or the Atlanta Braves would be far different than what would handicap the Dodgers.

    When the Dodgers were purchased by Guggenheim and company, there was a lot of debt involved. Just a guess, but Guggenheim is getting a large return on that investment, enough to satisfy regulators. How much other investors receive, no idea. Maybe it’s about value of the asset and future sale of those shares. The Dodgers have definitely increased in value and that figures to continue upward.

    As for Shohei Ohtani’s value. It has been reported that Ohtani mean’t $20 million annually for the Angels from just merchandising and licensing. All of Ohtani’s games are broadcast to Japan. No other player generates anything close. It has been reported that Ohtani means annual revenue to a team of $70 to $79 million. That was reported on the Dodger TV station. How exactly that breaks down I’m not sure. But if you add in advertising, sponsorship, licensing and merchandising, I can see how that might be possible. But let’s reel that back some, say $30 million, that’s a lot of additional revenue.

    Now go back to the $2.2 billion the ownership group paid for the Dodgers. Everybody said it was crazy to pay that for a team that was worth, at best, maybe $800 million. Mark Cuban, who was pursuing buying the Dodgers, said the numbers made no sense, this is about something other than just acquiring an MLB team, even one as iconic as the Dodgers. What did the new owners know that others didn’t.

    Start with a massive TV deal that is well beyond the $2.2 billion purchase price. But the Dodgers took advantage of other revenue streams exams as well. They haven’t even got around to developing the site around the stadium. Another Univeral City Walk.

    Until we truly understand how all this plays economically we are at a disadvantage to determine what signing Ohtani actually means to the Dodgers or any other club. We’re in a new era and the world has definitely changed. International markets have opened up new paths to riches that were unheard of a decade ago.

    Some day some sports economist will write a book on how all this works and what it means, how it changed baseball or sports in general.

    As to Ohtani’s actual value on the field, there are no Kareem Jabbar’s, Magic Johnson’s, Larry Bird’s or Michael Jordan’s in baseball. There are no Tom Brady’s either. The obvious difference is those players touch the ball more often than a baseball player, other than a pitcher and starters play only once every four or five days. So their ability to impact a game is far greater.

    But the Dodgers are in a difficult place. Bounced out of the playoffs by the division runner-up two years in a row. The fans a little downcast. Although they won in 2020, they haven’t had a Parade since 1988. That’s beginning to grind on their fan base. The thinking obvious, if the Dodgers are really that smart and with all their resources can’t find a way to win it all, how smart are they?

    Now I love winning a hundred games or more every summer. It’s fun. But like all of you here and millions of other Dodger fans, we’re all getting older. How much longer do we have to wait for the parade and celebration?

    Lot of paths leading to success. I don’t care how the Dodgers get there, just GET there. No more organizational failures.

    1. All valid points, but is Ohtani had been a Dodger this year, he would not have been in the playoffs.

  4. I joined the Army in December of 1965. Pearl Harbor Day was the day I was sworn in and sent to Ft. Bliss Texas for basic training. I did not get out until 1974 after the war was over. I was lucky, I never went to Nam. But I spent a little over 4 years overseas in Germany and Korea. My dad enlisted in the Navy in 1940. He was aboard the USS Nevada when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor. My grandfather, Ned, served in the Navy in WWI. My uncle Art flew B-24 Liberators out of India over the hump to bomb the Germans. My son spent 4 years in the Navy. My mom and my aunt Anita were both WAC’s. Kids serve in wars, and they are the ones who pay the heaviest price. 22 vets a day commit suicide. Badger, who used to post here a lot, spent his military service in the Marines and saw combat in Viet Nam.

    2. Thanks for your service Bear! And to your whole family for their distinguished service!
      Happy Veteran’s Day to all those who served to protect us.

  5. Thank you to the veterans out there.

    Good post on Ohtani, Mark. Your point about his age is noted and definitely relevant.

    But don’t trade all the prospects!

    I think the idea of an extension window is largely a fallacy–you still have to pay market value. Trading for players with limited years of team control is just that. You can’t assume they could be extended.

    Finally, been thinking about what position players could be next to come up [assuming Vargas, Busch, Deluca already made it]. There’s a bit of a lull right now. Feduccia is ready, Vivas likely one year out, Ramos 1-2, who am I missing?

    Cartaya, Rushing aren’t close yet and all those super-studs just getting going are 2-3 years away minimum.

    Maybe we swap a minor league arm for a minor league outfielder . . .

  6. Yeah, thank you Bear and all veterans. So, what became of
    Badger? He had some quirky, interesting things to say.

    1. LADodgerChronicles. You should check it out.

      Interesting trade idea Mark. I’ll take Burnes and Adames. You can keep Yelich. Don’t need a fading star. I’m getting Ohtani.

      And as for the money it would cost vs money it would generate, sbuffalo nailed it. Have you forgotten who owns the Dodgers? Guggenheim knows a thing or two about making money.

      Glad to hear you’re feeling better.

      2. I know it is not my money, but Yelich will cost $300 million less than Ohtani. Burnes, Yelich, and Adames will command about what Ohtani makes, and I think Ohtani is a fading star as well.

        1. Don’t like Yelich or his game. I think they need some pop from the right side. Too lefty heavy as it is. I think AF is going to make Ohtani an offer he cannot refuse. Also the lefty starter, Imanaga, set to be posted by the Bay Sox.

  8. Good for you Mark. Love all the wild trade scenarios. I’d rather have a RH bat than Yellich and don’t think AF agrees with you about Lux at short. Only want Burnes from Brewers. I only think AF has one big trade in him this year and others will be FA’s. Thank you all veterans for your sacrifice.

    1. Do you really think that Lux can come back from a horrid knee injury and play SS they next year? I doubt it!

  10. I like the concept of trading with the Brewers for Burnes. And throwing in Adames and eating the Yelich contract makes some sense. But Mark’s trade proposal is the most lopsided I have seen on MLB trade values website.
    As estimated by the simulator, Mark’s proposal would give the Dodgers $9.7 million in value, and the Brewers $67 million in value. And throwing in Cartaya would make it $88 million for the Brewers.
    Yes, the website is just an estimate and flawed, but this proposal is way too much.
    Per the simulator, if you took all of the Yelich contract, you could get Burnes, Adames and Yelich for just Stone OR Knack only. This seems too light to me also but that Yelich contract has $150 million left on it.

    A more realistic trade is just getting Burnes for Busch, Stone, and Fernandez. On the trade simulator this lines up at about $32 million in surplus value for each team. You could still extend Burnes effective in 2025, and just pay him his $15 million arb salary in 2025 while not absorbing Yelich for $26 million per year. That would free up at least $41 million from your budget that may be enough to cover Ohtani if you wanted him or many other options.
    I love the idea of trading for Burnes but not at the price Mark proposed.

  11. I love it that so many baseball players served during times of war. Some served in peacetime too and not all spent their time in special services playing ball. Many put their lives on the line. 12 died in the service of the country. Bob Neighbors who played in seven games for the Browns. He joined the Air Force in 1942 and became a pilot. He stayed in the service after the war and was killed in action in Korea flying a B-26 on a bombing mission. He was the only former MLB player killed in Korea. Harry O’Neill spent part of 1939 as the A’s backup catcher. He joined the Marines after Pearl Harbor. He went to OCS, became a lieutenant and was killed in action on Iwo Jima. One of only 2 MLB players killed in WWII. Elmer Gedeon, a three-sport star from Cleveland. In 1938 he was the first to reach Jesse Owens 7.2 in the low hurdles. Signed with the Senators but played just five games. Was drafted into the Army. He was transferred to the Army Air Corps where he earned his wings. In 1944, his B-26 was shot down on a bombing raid. He and four other members of the six-man crew were killed. He was 22 and the first MLB player killed in WWII. Robert Troy pitched one game in the majors against Walter Johnson and lost. Killed in 1918 during the Meuse-Argonne offensive. Robert Sharman enlisted in the Army during WWI and was killed in a training accident. He was 23. Newton Halliday joined the Navy at the beginning of WWI. He contracted Tuberculosis during training and died four months later. He was 21. Eddie Grant played 10 years in the NL and was in the 1913 World Series with the Giants. He retired and became a lawyer. He enlisted when WWI started and was a captain in the 307th regiment of the 77th infantry. Killed by an exploding shell during the Meuse-Argonne offensive.

    1. He said, and I quote, he would love to play in Boston. Someone told him how excited the town gets when they win. Doubt that happens in 24.

  13. Mark

    I already told you that I don’t ONLY use stats about prospects, but I heavily do. And I told you that 11 out of 12 of your top prospects on your list are my top 11 prospects on my list. How the hell did that happen if I ONLY use stats and how the hell did Cartaya make my top 11 list after his horrible year if I ONLY use stats?

    I don’t know what you see in Adames, so I wouldn’t do the trade you proposed.

      1. Burnes and Yelich have been All-Stars, and Adames (whom you do not like because of stats) average year (based on 162 games) is 27 HR, 81 RBI and a .759 OPS. He’s only 28 so his best years may be ahead of him.

        Yes, you have to pay to get those kind of players.

        Keep watching the rear-view mirror – I’ll watch the windshield!

        3. @Mark Timmons: By your logic, Ohtani is only 29, “so his best years may be ahead of him” too. Would you would have sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees as well? Ruth was only 24 and had his best years ahead of him.

          Also, would you rather have Burnes and Yelich at $56 Million or Ohtani at around $50 Million per year? I would take Ohtani, especially if he recovers and is able to pitch in 2024+. In a perfect world, Freidman will sign Ohtani AND trade for Burnes or Dylan Cease.

          Lastly, I heard Corbin Burnes is represented by Scott Boras, so extending him is unlikely.

          1. I never saw Babe Ruth, but I doubt it.

            Adames will make about $8-10 Million in Arbitration. He made $8.7 last year.

            Baseball-Reference has Burnes being represented by CCA Sports, but I Googled it and you are right – he switched to Borasss, so that is likely out.

            Ohtani will not pitch in 24 and the odds of him pitching at a high level again are very low.

            Eovaldi may be the most prominent pitcher to come back from two, but he was never on the level with Shohei!

            Here’s a great story on it:

            https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/2nd-tommy-john-surgery-tougher-shohei-ohtani-return-102880677#:~:text=We%20used%20to%20say%20that,are%20Nathan%20Eovaldi%20and%20Taillon.

        4. What the hell is your problem with me Mark? Do you want me to go away? I left and you told me to come back because you said nobody gave me blowback. WHAT?

          You insist on not looking at stats. Well guess what, you don’t know what I consider and you overlook. And I’ve been right more than you have.

          1) Smith

          2) Outman

          3) Your boy Vargas who is sitting at AAA (I called that) and who I believe will get traded.

          So what the hell is your problem with me?

          1. “Keep watching the rear-view mirror – I’ll watch the windshield!”

            Your windshield doesn’t work as good as my rear-view mirror.

          2. No problem with you – just your claims.

            1. Smith – You told us that you liked him AFTER he was a star, so that is easy to say.

            2. Outman – Yes you liked him, but what was it? His Neanderthal Swing or his proclivity to strike out. Oh, you said that “there was something that you just liked about him.” Oh, and yet, when did you see him? You don’t watch minor league games.

            3. Vargas could get traded. He’s not my boy – just a prospect that has a very good hit tool. He got waylayed last year with two broken fingers, and progress is not linear. I still think Vargas will be a much better player than Outman. And, I do like Outman. I just don’t fixate on one player.

  15. Mark I don’t see Adamas contract numbers in your trade proposal The players Listed average out to 99 million without Adamas being mentioned.

    1. I am not sure of extending Adames, but if you do (he made $8.7 Mil last year). It might be a CT3 type deal.

  16. USC stomped again. Bo Nix wins the battle of Heisman candidates handily. SC definitely needs to IMPROVE the defense next year, which the Dodgers need to do at third base.

  17. I agree that AF would never sign a contract that would hamstring the LAD, but he also would not make a trade that guts the farm system. That proposed trade is much more than he would give to the Brewers. It will never happen.

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