Here’s the Deal!

Posted By on November 10, 2023

OK, whether Chris Getz (President and GM or the Chicago White Sox) knows it or not, they need to rebuild… and I think they will come to that conclusion. They lost 100 games last year, and they need to do it for a couple of more years so as to bank some more top talent. The Dodgers have plenty of young talent to trade, and I think the Dodgers would line up well with the Sox as trade partners. Here’s the deal:

The Dodgers trade James Outman, Andy Pages, Jorbit Vivas, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, Peter Heubeck, and either Michael Busch or Miguel Vargas (pick one) to the White Sox for Dylan Cease, Luis Robert, Jr., and Aaron Bummer. Yes, that’s a lot to pay, but it nets a starting pitcher, who at worst is a Number Two, a LH Bullpen Arm who had a horrid year last season, but I would hope that Prior and Company could turn him around and an All-World Centerfielder, which is why James Outman goes back to the Sox.

I also gave up three pitchers, two of whom are highly regarded (Stone and Knack), a Wild Card (Heubeck), and a 2B (Vivas), as well as Pages and Vargas or Busch. It depends upon who the Sox value the most. It’s a lot to build on and drop some salary.

Robert Jr. is set to make $12.5 Million in 2024 and $15 Million in 2025, with a $2 Million Buyout in 2026. Robert Jr. is 26 and arguably has his best years ahead of him. RVS might even help him become even better. If the Dodgers trade for him, they should work hard to lock him up until age 35 or 36. Cease is set to make $8 Million in 2024 and will be a Free Agent in 2025. As good as Cease is, he is a bit of a rehab project, too. Bummer is set to make $5.5 Million in 2024 and become a Free Agent in 2025. If the Dodgers took on Andrew Benintendi’s salary, the Sox would do the deal in a heartbeat, but Benintendi is signed through 2027 for $17 Million per. He might look good in LF. He is a high-contact hitter who hit 20 HR as a rookie but has not done anything like that since. Again, RVS and Comoany might improve that.

How would this lineup look:

  1. Betts RF
  2. Freeman 1B
  3. Smith C
  4. Robert, Jr. CF
  5. Max Muncy 2B
  6. Justin Turner or JDM DH
  7. Vargas or Busch 3B
  8. Benintendi LF
  9. Lux SS

The Dodger have in the vicinity of $100 Million to spend this offseason. This adds the following:

  • Cease – $8 Million
  • Robert, Jr. – $12.5 Million
  • Bummer – $5.5 Million
  • Benintendi – $17 Million
  • Turner/JDM – $15 Million

That’s $58 Million, so that would leave them room to sign Imanaga, Flaherty, and maybe Gray.

OK, tear it up! I am just trying to brainstorm what might happen, and it’s about as likely to happen as the expert’s predictions as to where the Free Agents will land.

ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE

It’s winding down… The playoffs start tonight. Glendale is not in it!

  • Damon Keith – .250, 4 HR, 5 RBI, .329 OB%, .836 OPS
  • Yenier Fernandez – .289, 1 HR, 6 RBI, .413 OB%, .939 OPS

On the pitching side:

  • Jake Pilarski – 9 IP, 1.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
  • Ronan Kopp – 8 IP, 15 K, 1.13 ERA1.13 WHIP
  • Ryan Sublette – 9.1 IP, 11 K, 1.93 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
  • Kendall Williams – 18.2 IP, 18 K, 5.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
  • Ben Casparius – 14.2 IP, 20 K, 10.43 ERA, 1.77 WHIP

This article has 41 Comments

  1. According to MLBTR, the Dodgers are showing interest in Teoscar:

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/dodgers-showing-interest-in-teoscar-hernandez.html

    Even at his best, Hernández brings a lot of swing-and-miss. He fanned in 31.1% of his plate appearances this year and has gone down on strikes more than 28% of the time through the past four seasons. The profile is built more around power than strong on-base skills.

    MLBTR nevertheless predicts Hernández to find a four-year pact that pays around $20MM annually, slotting him as the #12 free agent. He recently turned 31 and is arguably the #4 position player in the class behind Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. Hernández has a bat-first reputation but logged nearly 1200 right field innings with Seattle, grading as a league average corner outfield defender by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

    Los Angeles can go in a number of directions on the position player front. They’re presently shorthanded in the corner outfield and designated hitter mix after Jason Heyward, J.D. Martinez and David Peralta reached free agency. L.A. will obviously be among the teams pursuing Ohtani and could look to bring Martinez and/or Heyward back depending on how the offseason progresses.

    Mookie Betts showed the ability to play an effective second base in addition to his Gold Glove caliber outfield work. Gomes indicated the Dodgers would continue to get Betts into action at the keystone, noting that the club plans to give plenty of shortstop work to Gavin Lux. The 25-year-old infielder missed the entire season after tearing the ACL in his right knee during Spring Training. The Dodgers have glove-first veteran Miguel Rojas under contract but could kick him into a utility role if Lux steps into something approaching an everyday shortstop job.

    Meanwhile, Gomes added that younger infielders Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch could find their way into the corner outfield (via Ardaya). They’ve each seen limited time in left field in the minors but are primarily second and third basemen. Neither player has hit well against MLB pitching in limited looks but they have accomplished offensive track records in Triple-A. Given the multi-positional flexibility throughout the roster, the Dodgers can go in a number of ways over the coming months.

  2. Not a bad trade you are suggesting. Yes, a lot of prospects involved on our side but the return is considerable.
    Would leave enough money for even Ohtani.
    That would make for a lethal lineup, at least on paper.
    What makes the trade even more attractive for the Dodgers;They have so many kids to protect in the RuleV draft they probably HAVE to make such a blockbuster trade not risking them for nothing.

    Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Pretty close to my reaction. I like the targeted partner though. Cease and Robert is a fine package. Years of control worry me.

  3. Wow! That’s a ton to give up. And Cease in my mind is a big ? One great year. And his stuff regressed in 23. I’d pass but would make a lesser offer for Robert Jr. and sign a top free agent pitcher. Also think AF will bring in one of his famous reclamation SP projects.

  4. I’d be happy with Robert Jr, Burnes, Gray, Heyward and JDM. Hernandez is too much swing and miss and we have enough of those already. I think either Busch or Vargas will be packaged in a trade. Still think Ohtani is a smoke screen

  5. So many paths and opportunities.

    So much misinformation. As Gomes said, some true and some not.

    Where do the Dodgers go from here?

    So, what does the average fan think. It’s Ohtani or bust this winter, that’s pretty clear. Oh yes, sign a pitcher or two.

    This site is different from what’s being said out on the street. People here are trying to determine the best direction for the Dodgers to go, how best to stretch a dollar and how do you get the best talent for the buck. Some are focused on what Friedman will or won’t do. After walking around for a week in Dodger gear, which creates a lot of discussion with others who follow the Dodgers, and there are a lot of them, not one is focused on how the Dodgers should move forward. No one is discussing plan A or Plan B.

    Most of the conversations begin and end with two words, Shohei Ohtani. That’s who the average fans want.

    Maybe, it’s the hype or watching him play on Angel broadcasts, seeing highlights nightly. Maybe it’s because he’s a generational talent. Perhaps it’s the string of stories connecting him with the Dodgers. Local media, national media, doesn’t matter, most link Ohtani with the Dodgers. There is an expectation, a rising wave.

    No one is talking Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto or even Corbin Burnes. No, I get it, you need starting pitching to win and Ohtani won’t pitch until 2025. He will not put the Dodgers over the top without the pitching.

    Then we look at Friedman’s history and he usually doesn’t sign the big free agent, the exception Freddie Freeman and face it, it was the perfect storm.

    Ohtani is a lot of money, maybe too much money. But the Dodgers have melted down in the first round of the playoffs two times in a row, right? Organizational failure, no one even knows what that actually means. But if they repeat the formula and get ousted again by the division runner-up, the barbarians will be at the gate. Once is a fluke, two is a trend and three would be a full blown disaster. The law of high expectations and falling short.

    Friedman once said, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”

    Then you look at history. The Dodgers lost out on Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Corey Seager, Yu Darvish and Trea Turner. Well, apparently they didn’t even talk to Turner about a new deal, according to Trea, so he doesn’t count.

    Will the Dodgers talk the talk, then fold when the numbers make them uncomfortable? History suggests, yes. The future is unknown. Maybe, for a variety of reasons, including increased revenue, Ohtani makes too much sense to pass on. As Jerry Hairston on the Dodger show the other night pointed out, Ohtani is apparently worth $70 to $79 million annually to the team that signs him. That’s annually, he emphasized. Maybe that’s why the Dodgers added a new VP to focus on world sponsorship, advertising and marketing opportunities. It’s a different time.

    One side note, JP Hoornstra of the LA Daily said the Dodgers have been tracking Shota Imanaga for awhile, suggesting the Dodgers are very interested in landing him. Maybe he’s the lefty.

    As to Mark’s trade proposal. Roberts is a very good player, but I’m not so sure the White Sox do that deal. You still need players to put fans in seats this season and next and without a doubt he’s an exciting player.

    But if you can get him, definitely.

    1. Missing out on Darvish was a blessing. Outside of 2020 and 2022, he has been very pedestrian. 2020 he was 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA. 2022 he won 16, lost 8 and his ERA was 3.10. The rest of those years after he left LA his ERA was about 4 or more. and he had losing seasons in all of them. The year after he left LA he only pitched 40 innings for the Cubs.

      1. Yah, I wasn’t a Darvish fan. But they did pursue him. You forgot to mention the real blessing, Bear, not getting Rendon.

        1. Oh yeah, he kinda pissed me off when he said he did not like all the Hollywood aspect of being a Dodger. Now there is a rumor that the Dodgers are talking to Rodriguez. He didn’t want to come here in the trade, why would he change his mind now?

  6. I would love to have Roberts, and the Sox are trying to reduce payroll. What Mark proposed seems like a package that would get it done. They would have enough left over to fix some other problems like starting pitching.

    1. Nope, inconsistent and injury prone. If ya want a reclamation project, how about Domingo German who pitched a no-hitter this year, or Lorenzen.

  8. In my view, the Dodgers should add 2-3 quality starters like Burnes, Snell, Gray and/or Imanaga. Starting pitching should be the focus as the Dodger offense was really good last year. I believe if they brought back a similar lineup and added Lux and Busch, the lineup would be even better without free agent additions. I also think Vargas and Deluca will potentially be better with experience. Vargas started the year with a broken finger and a new position, and he never looked like the quality hitter he has always been.
    The lineup is impressive just keeping the internal players:

    Betts
    Freeman
    JDM
    Muncy
    Smith
    Outman
    Lux
    Heyward/Taylor
    Busch/Vargas

    Bench- Taylor, Vargas, Kike, Rojas, Barnes/Feduccia, DeLuca

    This lineup is with no new additions, just bringing back JDM, Heyward, and maybe Kike and should make them the favorite to win the division. I would still be open to adding a RH bat at 3B or LF in free agency like Teoscar, Candelario or Soler, but that is a lower priority than starting pitching.

      1. Ouch 30 million still for CT3. This signing wasn’t one of Friedman’s best. Dare I say “Dope fiend”? He just doesn’t seem to be worth that much money and it seems like they would rather have Kike as the utility player.

      2. But the package of youngsters that Mark proposed, put in a caveat that either Barnes or Taylor goes with the youngsters. It’s not a matter of the Sox’s wanting either player it’s more they have to take one of them to get the deal done. The load that Mark suggested is a real nice haul of young talent. Throwing in one of the two opens a roster spot plus saves a little money.

  10. While I am not in favor of signing Ohtani from a baseball standpoint, it sounds like Friedman and the business side want to sign him badly. I have no idea what additional revenues Ohtani brings into the business, and whether it is $70 million like Hairston is saying, or $10 million per year like others estimate. But if the Dodgers are set on signing Ohtani long term, then I would propose a contract structured like this:
    $450 million guaranteed for 15 years.
    Annual incentives of:
    $5 million if 500 at bats.
    $5 million if MVP
    $5 million if World Series winner
    $1 million per pitching start up to $30 million per year.
    If he performs to his potential, he will make $75 million per year, but the Dodgers are only committed to $30 million per year.
    The Dodgers would be offering Ohtani a contract in which he can make $1.125 billion!
    I think Ohtani would be open to an incentive laden contract and would be willing to bet on himself instead of just taking a long term guarantee regardless of performance.

    1. That would qualify as a MAJOR dope-fiend move.

      If BIG IF, Ohtani comes to the Dodgers it will be less than $400 Million over 10 years (plus incentives).

      1. Mark, you’re a baller so you know if you want to run with the big dogs you gotta pay the big money.

        10y/$500m is the number.

    2. What the heck, what are you smoking dawg. A billy you must be smoking some good ish to think anyone would offer him that much.

  11. Over at ESPN and behind their paywall is a retrospective look at the Rangers and the steps taken to win the WS.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38841610/mlb-2023-world-series-rangers-trades-semien-seager-scherzer

    Here are some of the lessons that Dave Shoenfield took away:

    Lesson: Be lucky.
    Lesson: Find players blocked in other organizations.
    Lesson: Hope your bullpen gets hot at the right time.
    Lesson: Spend the money!
    Lesson: You can never have too much starting pitching.

    40% is pretty much luck.

    I really like the 2nd one.

    On thet final note, Schoenfield expands that he anticipates the Dodgers to heed this lesson this off-season:

    The Dodgers will be getting Walker Buehler back, but they’ll be without Kershaw and Julio Urias, leaving Bobby Miller as the only proven holdover from 2023.

    1. Another thing is: Be bad for a few years and you can have a stockpile of highly drafted players.

  12. Google news is reporting that the Cubs are the favorite to land Ohtani. I don’t place much faith in that. But they say endorsements from Darvish and Suzuki have made it so. I will believe that when I see a press conference. Padres interviewed ex Angels skipper, Phil Nevin.

  13. Mark’s trade: No just no. Trade the farm for 1,2,2 years of control. Everyone wants to be a free agent to get the big money. Either those guys turn out to be, as the saying goes, not all that or they do good and leave for big money.

    I think Mark is just making discussion, because Mark usually likes to hoard prospects and there’s nothing wrong with that to a point.

  14. I’m convinced that most of those who vote for any type of rewards are bias against the dodgers

  15. I’d get an ace starting pitcher and a number 2 via free agent or trade and Cease is not that, I see him as a number 3. I’d get free agents Brasier and Shelby Miller. Then I would get free agent Rhys Hoskins for the outfield and get free agents JD Martinez or Justin Turner for DH.

      1. I would argue he isn’t. He can be elite, but he is erratic. He had a very good year this season. His WHIP was 1.101 and his ERA was 1.29. He had 33 saves, but he blew 5 and lost 3. How much money do you pay a guy who only pitches 57 innings a year? Hader got 14 last year. He is going to get a multiyear deal for probably close to 17 or 18 mil a year. Emmanuel Clase would be my choice. 86 saves over the last two years. Unfortunately, I doubt Cleveland would trade him. Another choice over Hader would be Williams of the Brewers. Nasty stuff. Just my opinion Eric. I think Hader is the loose cannon type, and I really dislike the fact that he refused to enter a game this season in the 8th inning. He insists he pitches in the 9th inning only. Not really a team guy. There has to be a reason why Milwaukee traded him in the first place. Another reason why I don’t see Verdugo coming back to the Dodgers.

          1. His stuff is electric. Williams has some nasty stuff too. I think Hader’s problem is that he thinks he can always beat you with his fastball. That is why Mookie was sitting on it when he hit a 9th inning shot off of him to tie a game this year.

    2. Hoskins would be a great addition. I love JT but don’t see him returning to LA. I really believe AF wants Ohtani and doesn’t really care about the cost. I would definitely bring back Brasier and Miller. But there will be a ton of relievers on the open market.

  16. Bluto looking at teams that drafted hi ,and have players blocked,which players would you say are worth looking at.

  17. On a note in yesterday’s column. The Royals draw reasonably well win they put a decent product in the field. Many Royal fans our disappointed when they don’t go out and get players although, mainly because of the competitive tax, the Royals end up in the black.

    1. They at least have a loyal fan base, and if the kids they have progress as they should, they will be competitive sooner rather than later. Tampa’s problem is the stadium. It is out of the way, and basically a dump. Miami has never really drawn well. They could be moved and no one would miss them.

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