Be Careful What You Wish For!

Posted By on November 8, 2023

Right about now… not the same as last season; Dodger fans are foaming at the mouth for the Dodgers to sign a slew of starting pitchers. They routinely talk like Andrew Freidman, and the front office is devoid of any common sense. They would be happy if the Dodgers signed Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shota Imanaga immediately… if not sooner. Of course, that would be a dope-fiend move!

At the start of last season, the Dodger’s rotation looked like this:

  1. Julio Urias – He was finally ready to take over as the Ace
  2. Clayton Kershaw – Was still regarded as a top pitcher
  3. Tony Gonsolin – Hopefully, over his arm problems the year before
  4. Dustin May – Supposed to be ready after arms surgery
  5. Noah Syndergaard – Asked to come to LA so they could fix him

Then they had Ryan Pepoit, Bobby Miller, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone waiting in the wings. What could go wrong? As it turned out… EVERYTHING! Literally EVERYTHING! They ended up with three rookies, a broken-down Kershaw, and a home run derby pitcher chucking the bull at the end of the season. Yes, it turned out that the fans were right: The Dodgers should have signed Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, Edwin Diaz, Tyler Anderson, and Jacob deGrom – Yeah – that would have worked out… BADLY!

The fact of the matter is that in a very high percentage of cases, if a pitcher has a track record of pitching well for two or three years, they are due for a blowout, and if they have had injury issues… it’s likely to continue. There is a reason why Andrew Friedman stays away from long-term deals with pitchers: It’s simple… they often do not work out! The fact of the matter is that “bargain bin and dumpster diving Dollar General” projects often turn out better than deals for premium free agents.

Free-agent pitchers who command long-term contracts and benefit a team are the exception, not the rule. Andrew Freidman is cautious for a reason. Remember how everyone thought the Mets would Dominate with Scherzer, Verlander, Carrasco, Senga, and Diaz in the bullpen? Ha! How did that turn out? No, thank you. AF is cautious and will continue to be, and if the Dodgers sign Ohtani, it will be because he gave them a discount because he wanted to be in LA.

Some fans take it as gospel that the reason the Dodgers did not give JD Martinez the qualifying offer is because they are intent on signing Ohtani. It worked – AF has you fooled, too. It’s more likely that AF told JDM, “We’d like you back. See what you can get, and let’s see if we can match it.” Justin Turner is also out there, and you should realize that Max Muncy would be a great DH. I would not be afraid to go into 2024 with Vargas, Busch, and DeLuca on the roster.

How about resigning Jason Heyward for two years at $9 Million per year and trading for Lane Thomas. Thomas could likely be had for Pages, Knack, and Vivas. Thomas kills LHP. He hits nearly 100 points higher against LHP. Heyward kills RHP. You also have a platoon in LF unless someone steps up. Sign Imanaga and Snell (no more than six years/$150 million. Since Kershaw will not play the role he has in the past, I say it’s time to let Barnes go. If he wants to retire, then offer him a position in the organization or if not, let him know that he can come back. You know the next move: Hunter Feduccia.

Here’s the lineup:

  1. Betts (R) 2B
  2. Lux (L) SS
  3. Freeman (L) 1B
  4. Smith (R) C
  5. Muncy (L) DH
  6. Heyward/Thomas (L-R) RF
  7. Outman (L) CF
  8. Vargas (R) 3B
  9. Busch/Taylor (L-R) LF

Rotation:

  1. Snell
  2. Miller
  3. Buehler
  4. Pepiot
  5. Imanaga
  6. Sheehan

By not signing Ohtani, there is still plenty of money to sign another player – a hitter, but I would start the season and see what shakes out. You can add that player at the deadline. Or maybe the Dodgers sign JDM or JT and have Max play 3B. I think that having all the money tied up with one aging player is foolish and a recipe for disaster.

Let’s assume Ohtani can hit next year… and that is not a given. We have not seen him hit since the surgery. It’s possible he could come back by Summer. Then, in 2025, let’s say he starts pitching again… and the unthinkable happens… he tears his UCL… again. He may never be the same player! He is an elite athlete who pushes his body at an extremely high level, but his tendons and ligaments are ordinary human tissue. I say NO to Ohtani. You can’t spell Ohtani without NO. Oh, Freidman will drive up the price, but he will not be a Dodger. That is my opinion.

Maybe, the Dodgers will make a big deal with the Padres for Soto and try and get him to sign an extension. Instead of trading for Lane Thomas and signing Heyward, trade Pages, Knack, Vivas, and one of either Busch or Vargas for Soto. The re-sign JDM or JT. Look at this lineup:

  1. Betts RF
  2. Freeman 1B
  3. Soto LF
  4. JDM or JT DH
  5. Muncy 3B
  6. Smith C
  7. Outman CF
  8. Vargas or Busch 2B
  9. Lux SS

Food for thought! But, of course, Andrew Freidman has something entirely different planned… or so it might seem.

This article has 34 Comments

  1. No thank you on Snell. Too inconsistent, two really good seasons out of eight. 5.2 inning pitcher. AF has never signed a STARTING pitcher to more than 4 years, (McCarthy). He gave Jansen five. But I do think they can get more bang for their buck by avoiding Ohtani. I like the idea of bringing Thomas here. He is a good player and excellent on defense. But please, get some hitters who actually put the bat on the ball and don’t look like swinging gates up there blowing in the breeze. That is why I say no to Chapman too. He strikes out more than Muncy does.

    1. Totally agree on Chapman.

      I also think he is going to be forced to go 5 or 6 years with a couple of pitchers.

  3. Maybe they should just throw darts. Put up a board with all the potential players and let the darts fly. That’s now the new direction. Probably work as well as trying to analyze who they should pursue and sign.

    Or you can break it down.

    Start with Ohtani. Whole lot of money. According to the New York Post, Ohtani is considering three teams. Dodgers, Giants and Rangers. The Giants need a star. Desperate for a star. The Rangers are probably thinking — Hey we just won the World Series, signing Ohtani would rock the foundation of MLB. They seem to embrace risk, until it outweighs the potential gain and now creates a San Diego Padres moment. The Rangers don’t have LA’s revenue streams or resources.

    Then there are the Dodgers. They tried to sign Ohtani out of high school, again as a player coming from Japan and now as a free agent. They seemingly have a plan, hiring a VP to focus mostly on international sponsorship, advertising and marketing opportunities. Ohtani signing? He comes with potential revenue for the team, maybe $10 to $20 million annually. Then there are other Japanese stars like Yamamoto.

    But we should remember when the new owners paid $2.2 billion for the Dodgers, who were valued at around $800 million. Everyone proclaimed the new owners were crazy to pay that much. Other owners and economists were stunned. Then came the massive $8 billion TV deal. They were one step ahead.

    Still, it’s a lot of money. Definitely puts a kink in financial flexibility that Friedman seems to crave.

    There are several veteran pitchers available through free agency, including Montgomery, a lefty, Nola and Snell. There are the two Japanese pitchers, maybe one or two available in trade and then the less costly, higher risks pitchers like Flaherty.

    I like Montgomery, but Snell can be elite, but can you trust him going forward? He walks a lot of hitters, always seems to be in a jam. But gets big strikeouts to escape.

    The Dodgers do have a great crop of young hurlers, Buehler will be back and maybe Kershaw some time in late summer. But you can’t have enough starting pitching, right?
    This past season illustrates that.

    Okay, what about hitters? Some of that depends on what Ohtani does. Can we just forget Arenado and Chapman too.

    There is always Martinez and Turner, DH, or Muncy. Maybe just mix and match with no specific DH. Good chance to rest Will Smith, keep him fresh and keep his bat in the line-up.

    Playing Busch and Vargas seems to make sense. Another bat would help, especially is you don’t sign Ohtani or re-sign Martinez.

    The Dodgers can probably win the division again with only a couple of fringe moves. That is, of course, depending on Buehler regaining form and the young pitchers staying healthy and continuing to improve.

    All of this may depend on the Dodgers overall plan, a couple of young hitters coming through and the Dodgers blending some veteran pitchers with the young guys. The Dodgers probably have a plan or two or three. If you have to go to plan four, then it’s all unraveling.

    Or maybe they are just throwing darts, sprinkling them with some analytics and fairy dust and hoping a guiding light shines through to show them the way.

    Winter will be fun or leave you depressed.

    1. Snell has had two good years in his 8 seasons in the majors. He is not an ace. He averages just a tad over 5 innings a start. Not worth what they are going to be asking, his agent is Boras, need I say more?

      1. Snell is likely a #2 at best. Most likely a very good #3 on most contending teams. However, Boras is going to seek ace level money and someone is going to overpay. I just hope it is not the Dodgers. For the right contract, I would love to have Snell pitching behind Buehler, then followed by Miller, but he is going to cost, a lot. I can see AF et co. exploring the trade market, then honing on potential free agents with limited options. Similar to how we ended up with Freddie Freeman. The market quickly shifted on Freeman when the Braves traded for and extended Matt Olson.

        1. I forget who the guest was on Hot Stove on MLB network today, but he basically said Snell wasn’t worth a high dollar contract because you don’t know which guy you are getting. Too inconsistent.

  4. One thing for sure, AF and his cohorts are not just throwing darts when it comes to the top free agents. For me the greatest need is an ace (not Snell), an innings eater and a right handed bat. None of which is Ohtani. Trade for Burnes, sign Imanaga or Gray and resign JD and Heyward. I also like Thomas.

    1. I’m sure the package you mentioned is in one of the plans. Not a bad approach and yes it all makes sense.

    3. Good ideas, but first the Brewers have to want to trade Burnes, and if they are so inclined, I would bet they want you to take Yelich and his 100 mil plus contract too. To me, that is a deal breaker.

  5. FWIW, mlb.com reports that AF is all-in on Ohtani…

    Nov. 7: Dodgers’ Friedman ‘obsessed’ with Ohtani (report)
    Are the Dodgers poised to make an all-out push to sign Shohei Ohtani? Many view Los Angeles as the favorite for the two-way superstar, and that includes ESPN’s Buster Olney, who heard from a person in the Dodgers organization that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is “obsessed” with Ohtani and will do what it takes to position the club to sign him.
    ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (subscription required) previously reported that Dodgers ownership was “highly motivated” to sign Ohtani before their early postseason exit, so Friedman shouldn’t have a problem convincing ownership to break out the checkbook for the 29-year-old.
    According to MLB Network insider Jon Heyman, the Dodgers’ decision not to make a qualifying offer to designated hitter J.D. Martinez was at least partially motivated by Ohtani’s free agency.
    Martinez had success for Los Angeles on a one-year, $10 million deal in 2023, producing 33 homers and 103 RBIs in 113 games. But the club didn’t want to risk him accepting the QO, which would have tied up the DH spot for 2024 at a time when Ohtani is still available. Heyman notes that the Dodgers would be interested in bringing Martinez back if they are unable to land Ohtani…..

    The Dodgers obviously have a wealth of options in formulating next season’s roster. But among all of these options, only one is truly a once-in-a-lifetime talent and international superstar. Only one option might be fairly classified as “epic” or “historic”–and it ain’t Blake Snell.
    Ohtani should win his second MVP award soon. Is there a risk in signing him? Of course. But there is a risk in any big contract–and most teams think the risk is worth it, Teams often hedge their bets with insurance, something the Nationals failed to do with Strasberg.
    I’ve noticed that our posts here have focused on the 2024 lineup. But of course AF isn’t interested, or maybe even “obsessed” with Ohtani, with just ’24 in mind. Any team that lands Ohtani envisions his potent bat in the middle of lineup for the years to come, and also as a mainstay in the rotation starting in ’25.
    As I’ve argued before, the Dodgers are not just in the baseball business, but the entertainment business with a growing international market. Ohtani is not just a star ballplayer, but a sports phenomenon.
    Could we divvy up the $400-500 million Ohtani might command to four, five or six other players are come up with a better team? Maybe we could–if we could persuade the right players to take our money and not sign with another team. Maybe it would win 111 games! But it would lack Ohtani.
    So while AF may be a nincompoop, I don’t think he is. He’ll still need a couple of frontline starters as well. Should be a fun winter.

  6. The Dodgers have won one World Championship in 35 years. They have won none which involved a regular season of more than sixty games. But the Dodgers method is working, at least as far as revenue. At the end of the last two seasons, Andrew Friedman said there was “an organizational failure.” I guess that was just corporate-speak, because they kept the manager, and may very well do the exact same thing in the offseason: look for bargains,, short-term contracts.

    Philadelphia among others will run right over them,with their willingness to go big. Texas will go all-out. Who did the Dodgers get at the trade deadline, while some other tea,ms were making big moves? Various odds and ends,no one of whom turned out to help in the playoffs, and most of whom will be gone by next season. Don”t risk much, churn, then say that it was an organizational failure, and keep doing it. That’s what it looks like, anyway. Will the fans keep coming? Stan Kasten, who calls the shots, is sure that they will, and apparently that is all that maters to the owners, as the Dodgers have become a kind of national joke among fans of other franchises. 212-112 in the last two regular seasons, 1-6 in the playoffs.

    1. If the Dodgers are a joke, why do so many teams try to emulate them? Fans are the only one bitching. So they have only won one title in 35 years. So what? They went to the World Series three times in the last 6 seasons. Outside of the Astroholes, who else has done that???? Nobody. Screw the fans of other franchises. Ask Angel fans how they feel about wasting both Trout and Ohtani. How about Seattle who has never even been to a World Series. The Rockies have been once and the Padres twice in their entire existence. You have to get there first, and the Dodgers get there. It is not that easy to win it all. Who cares that their one win was in a shortened season??? Every damn team in both leagues had to play under the worst of circumstances. No fans, wearing masks when they were in the dugout. Piped in fan noise. Then they were on the verge of being eliminated and won three straight elimination games. All that crap about it doesn’t count is just that, crap. The only ones complaining are all the fans of the teams that did not win.

    2. The Dodgers’ method is winning, and I had a Red Sox fan tell me that he was jealous of the Dodgers because they “are good every year while we suck for 5 years and then win one. I’d rather be miserable for a few days than a few years!”

      Of course, he understands that the playoffs are a crapshoot… no matter who you are. If a person can’t see that after this year, then they are of this ilk “there are none so blind as these would will not see!”

  7. Excellent article Mark.
    The Dodger’s big needs in 2024 are 2-3 starting pitchers and possibly a RH bat or DH.
    The offense in 2023 averaged 5.59 runs compared to 5.23 runs in 2022 when they won 111 games. In 2023, the Dodgers scored more runs than in any of their last 20 seasons.
    And the offensive output came with several underperforming offensive seasons from Barnes, Rojas, Vargas, Peralta and Thompson. These five players all had OPS under 680, with 3 hitting below 200, and they took over 20% of the team at bats for the season. By shifting these at bats to better hitters like Lux and Thomas, or through growth in young players like Vargas, Busch, and Deluca, the offense could be even better in 2024.
    The pitching in 2023 had a team ERA of 4.06 compared to 2.80 in 2022. The team ERA was the highest for a Dodger team since 2007. Also Kershaw, the teams best starting pitcher by far in 2023 at 2.46 ERA, will miss half if not all of 2024. The offseason focus needs to be on adding starting pitching depth. I like Mark’s idea of adding Imanaga and Snell or Gray and relying on the young pitchers and Buehler to fill out the rotation. Ohtani would be a luxury and a business asset, but would not help the pitching at all in 2024 and marginally in 2025 if at all.

  8. So reading here I find my self nodding with both sides of the Ohtani argument, where I had always been opposed to tying up so much money in one (broken) player.

    However perhaps this moment in recent Dodger history is pivotal.

    For years, possibly decades, Dodger fans yearned for what we have seen this past 12/13 years, but now that is not enough.
    To be perennial contenders and Division winners seemed like a pipe dream, something that maybe only the Yankees could envision. Successive winning season after winning season and the excitement of October baseball. Heady dreams indeed.

    I wasn’t sure about AF at the start. Mark was. He was in the minority.
    Watching him work we have been lucky enough to witness a winning and successful and more importantly, sustainable ball club, under his direction.

    The question now to me seems to be, is it time to blow up the AF playbook and try a different route, because if this place is a microcosm of the Dodger fan base, then people are getting restless.

    The problem with doing that as I see it is that you can’t do both.
    You can’t suddenly push all your chips in and then have a rethink once the cards dealt, you’re stuck with your decision (think Padres or Mets).

    Are we happy to be the RedSox? Win, suck for a while, win, suck again etc? Or would that be too much to bear, having gotten used to all this success?

    Imagine we are the San Francisco Giants Talk – would we rather have had their past 12 years, or would we rather have been the Dodgers – who are set up to contend and win 100 games a season while “Transitioning”? and at least have a ticket to the show every October, whilst the Bums from the Bay are watching on TV, looking forward to another season of mediocrity?

    Continually selecting at the bottom of the draft year after year means we have no Elite prospects. Player Development is excellent but without tanking, think Astros, Cubs and Rangers (Orioles to a degree), we will continue to struggle to produce MLB Elite talent. So, tank for a few years, have a proper transition, and get some proper talent?

    So here we are. Posters are moaning that we didn’t do enough at the Deadline. If we had made some big moves, we wouldn’t have the same Prospect Capital that we do now to swing a Trade for Burnes as so many desire. We might have prevailed, but it seems unlikely. You can’t have it both ways.

    So, what do Dodger fans want? Short term success at the expense of continuing consistency of winning seasons, or stay strong and keep the well-trodden path of depth, while hoping to work around the fringes at the TD?

    Seems to me you can’t have both. I wonder if Kasten looks back at his time in Atlanta with pride or with regret?
    He’s at that same point now.

    1. Good post Watford, thought out and presented very well. Almost dare I say similar to DodgerPatch-esque. Sure miss his wit and word smithing on here.

    2. Excellent commentary!

      I am growing weary of the moronic trolls. You are a breath of fresh air!

    3. Excellent post Waford. I see fans getting restless and I laugh. Excuse me, at least you have a chance to win. I have seen one play in a World Series turn the whole thing around. Both ways. Fans getting restless? There were fans of the Cubs who never saw them win unless they were alive in 1908. Likewise Red Sox fans who last saw a championship in 1918 until they won in 2004. Angel’s fans have enjoyed one in their entire existence. Rockies, Mariners, and Padres none. The Rangers, who were originally an expansion team in 1961, won their first in their 63rd year of existence. It isn’t that easy to win it all. Being in a position to win to me is one hell of an accomplishment. To do it for this length of time, is something no Dodger fan has ever seen before. A lot of people rag on the Braves for winning all those division titles and only one World Series. But they lost four World Series. And they had better pitching than almost any team at the time. I think Kasten is extremely proud of those Braves teams. That 91 team that lost to the Twins, what a series. It could have gone either way. But all it takes is one over the top pitching performance, or a hitter going off. And sometimes it is the guy you least expect who kills you.

  9. Geez the free agent market sucks for position players. Unless you want to give Bellinger a big contract or if you still want to go with platoons. DH is the only thing I see that’s worth it going with either JD Martinez or Justin Turner or Ohtani with a not worth it contract.

    Starting pitching, I like Yamamoto and a 3 year contract for Sonny Gray and you might have to add a team option for a 4th year.

    1. Then you will hate this, there is a post on MLBTR that said the Dodgers have a serious interest in Teoscar Hernandez. Hernandez is 31 and normally plays right field. But he can play all three outfield positions. With Seattle this year he hit .258/26/93. He is a right-handed bat. His OPS was .741, OPS+ was 106. He struck out 211 times and walked only 38 times. He is a decent defender and had 12 outfield assists last year. I just don’t care for the high K rate and lack of walks. He does have some power and has hit double figures in homers the last six years in a row with a high of 32 when he was with the Jays in 2021.

  10. Watford: very well written. As I’ve stated before, as a fan since 1950, I will always be on the side of constantly winning and having a shot at the ultimate prize. I also fully understand the nature of the post season, which unfortunately many on this site do not.

    The outcome of the post season is unfortunately not in a team’s full control. Yes there is luck involved, but more importantly, the nature of the game which involves good and bad cycles is the most important aspect of October baseball. For example, Seager is the absolute darling of the post season today. However, here are some prior stats. 2015 BA .188, 2016 BA .130 against Wash, 2017 BA .222, 2019 BA .190, 2021 .000 SL, .238 SF, .167 ATL. So is he the greatest as he was in 2020 and 2023, or just mediocre as he was all the other years. I would argue he is a great player that was in a bad spot during the mediocre years. Kinda like Betts and Freeman this year.

    People want to argue the post season is not a crap shoot. Maybe crap shoot is too strong, but winning 11 (or 13) games is a helluva lot easier than winning 100. Unfortunately I will never be able to change some people’s mind.

    1. Thank you Jay.

      Point well made about Mookie and Fred and I agree, it’s just the cycle of Baseball.
      Acuna disappeared in the Playoffs too.

      I happen to think that when AF mentioned Organisational Failures, he was referring more towards the set up of the Roster and the lineup of the Rotation, things that would have been a joint decision. I think there have been some very questionable decisions about the order of the post season Rotation these past two years.

    2. Difference is Jay, there is more pressure to win those 11-13 games simply because of what they mean. 162 games is a marathon as we all know, and it is a grind. Now you have to play your best baseball. Some just fold under the pressure. Look at Castellanos. In the NLDS he absolutely crushed the ball. In the NLCS after his first at bat and a homer, he went 0-21 with 10 K’s. Gil Hodges went 0-21 in a World Series. Ted Williams in his only World Series hit .200. Then you have guys like Bobby Richardson who go off and get 12 hits, score runs and make big plays. It just isn’t that easy to win, and you have to get there first.

    3. Sure Seager has had bad postseasons to offset his great postseasons which include two World Series MVPs. But overall Seager has a career postseason OPS of 853 and 19 Hr in 78 games. For comparison, Betts has a postseason OPS of 710 and 4 career HR in 58 games.
      The variation in postseason results may be just the randomness of smaller sample sizes. Or possibly some hitters are better against top line pitching and high velocity than other hitters. But hopefully, Betts will revert to his normal results and future postseasons will be more in line with his regular season average OPS of 900.

  11. That lineup with Soto looks promising. I believe Soto, not Ohtani, should be our primary target. At 25 year old, not only does Soto bring immediate value but also stability during a post-Freeman era, as well as a potential time when Betts is on the latter part of his career. Whereas Ohtani would very likely lead to a time when our payroll is bogged down by not just one, but three potential stars with eroding skills. However, I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where the Padres deal a future cornerstone player to a division rival. So we are more likely to have a chance at signing Soto as a free agent than trading for him this offseason. I do believe the Padres will end up trading Soto, or Tatis Jr. if they manage to extend Soto. According to what has been reported, Preller is on strict orders to cut payroll.

    I like your thinking Mark. Not much to disagree in today’s post. Better than some of the stuff that is being put out there by “insiders”. Good stuff!

    1. I agree that the chances the Padres trade Soto to the Dodgers are slim and none. No way Preller wants to make the Dodgers better. He is under orders to cut payroll, so I do not see the Padres targeting anyone who is going to cost a lot of money. They have three long term contracts right now that are limiting what they can do. Ron Washington gets a two year deal to manage the Angels.

        1. Chances they would even consider trading him to LA are infinitesimal. Dodgers would want the right to negotiate a long-term deal before any trade would be finalized. Unless SD locks him up long term, LA will pursue him in free agency after next season. Trevor Bauers agents are talking with teams in the US about a contract to restart his MLB career.

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