Now the fun really starts. Every day the free agent list will grow as players are non-tendered or options are not picked up. The trickle becomes a deluge. And sometime over the next couple of weeks, after the season ending awards are handed out, players will begin the negotiation process with teams that are interested.
There has been one trade so far involving a major league player as Mark Canha was traded by the Brewers to the Tigers for a minor league pitcher. And of course, most Dodger fans are very interested in which direction the team will move.
The major buzz say’s they will make a play for the top player on the market, Shohei Ohtani. But many fans wonder if a guy who can’t pitch this season is worth the money he is going to be offered, expected to be in the 4-to-500-million-dollar range. There will no doubt be some sort of incentives written into the deal. Ohtani and his doctors say he will be ready to pitch in 25.
The Dodgers quite obviously need starting pitchers. With Kershaw’s status in doubt, no lefty starters in the minors close to being ready, and Julio Urias being a free agent, and also under the domestic violence cloud, they should be in the market for at least one, left-handed starter. There are some good ones on the market. Two of them, Snell and Montgomery, are unfortunately represented by Scott Boras. Eduard Rodriguez just turned down his team option and is also on the market. You might remember him; he blocked a deadline trade to the Dodgers.
But he is back out there again. Shawn Manaea is also on the market, turning down his player option with the Giants. For those of you who are nostalgic, there is always Rich Hill who says he wants to continue pitching.
There is a left hander from Japan, Yuki Matsui, who is being posted. But he is a relief pitcher. A closer in Japan. Lefties Hyun Jin Ryu, Alex Wood, Martin Perez, James Paxton, Wade Miley, Tommy Milone, Zach Logue, Dallas Keuchel, Madison Bumgarner and Eric Lauer are all starters and free agents also. There might be one or two more who get non-tendered.
Right handers include, Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco, Seth Lugo, Sonny Gray, Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson, Aaron Nola, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Michael Lorenzen, Jake Odorizzi, Frankie Montas, Tyler Mahle, Michael Wacha, Brad Keller, Zach Davies, Kenta Maeda, Vincent Velazquez, Domingo German, Austin Voth, Julio Teheran, Jamie Barria, Justin Dunn, Chase Anderson, Jose Urena, Alec Mills, Luke Weaver, Chris Vallimont, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Chris Flexen, Mike Mayers and Yamamoto. Of course, Thor is out there too.
Pretty interesting list. Eight pitchers on this list have thrown no-hitters on their own. Two others were involved in no-hitters featuring multiple pitchers. Giolito, German, Lorenzen, Kluber, Miley, Mills, Manaea, and Paxton have all thrown no-hitters, German and Lorenzen, this year. Lugo and Davies were involved in the no-hitters where more than one pitcher was used. Davies did it while with the Cubs against the Dodgers. Lugo was with the Mets. You can add Kershaw to that list since he is also at this point a free agent.
Some of those guys are pretty young, but most are in or approaching their 30’s. Except for the top-of-the-line guys, most of these guys will get short term deals. Lorenzen, Giolito, Flaherty, Wacha, all are of interest to me. Even a guy like Alex Mills. But I have no idea who the Dodgers might like out of that bunch. Whoever they target, they want to compliment the guys they have now, Miller, Sheen, Buehler, Grove, Pepiot, and possibly, Gavin Stone.
The bullpen will have Graterol, Phillips, and Ferguson or Vesia possibly locked into spots. They picked up Treinen’s option, so he will pitch if healthy. Kelly, Hudson, options not picked up. Maybe they think they can bring both back for less money. But finding bullpen arms is easy. I do hope they re-sign Brasier. He was a find.
As far as the offense goes, I still believe Ohtani is their top target. Some want Chapman, who just won a gold glove. A .240 hitter with some power, I still believe he strikes out too much. more than Muncy. He is also a Boras client, so there is that too. There is interest in bringing back Heyward in the same type of role he had last season. With JT declining his option with the Red Sox, some have campaigned to bring the popular red head back. It has been noted in MLBTR that the D-Backs covet his services too.
Some also think the Dodgers should pursue a deal for Nolan Arenado. It should be noted that he was not even nominated for a gold glove this year, breaking a string of 10 straight seasons winning the honor. It went to Ky-Bryan Hayes of the Pirates this year. It should also be noted that his production this season did not approach his normal standards. Entering his age 33 season, he is owed 109 million over the next four years. There is a definite chance that he will decline over the next few seasons.
Trades seem to be the way to improve some areas. Some pundits have suggested that the Dodgers would make a deal for Corbin Burnes from Milwaukee. A trade like this would probably mean the Dodgers having to take on the contract of Christian Yelich. Yelich had his best season in four years this season, he is still speedy and steals bases, but he is owed 130 million dollars over the next five years and has an option year besides that. He will be 32. But I just do not see the Dodgers adding more age and blocking their own prospects.
I wish I had a crystal ball so I could see what was going to transpire, or at least some inside information. Everything the Dodgers do this offseason will bring with it some sense of surprise. But this is a year where AF and ownership need to make a splash. In other years fans did not make much of a fuss with the fringe signings and the reclamation projects. But with the two losses in the last two NLDS series to in division rivals, fans are a bit more than restless.
So, it is starting. What are your thoughts on the Dodgers needs and possible moves? But try to stay in the mode that what is proposed actually has a real chance of happening. I would not really mind if the team tanked a little and allowed the kids the time to get themselves settled in. At least one of Vargas or Busch will make the opening day roster, and the other, might be used in a trade. But the obvious need is pitching. That is where I am going to be most interested in who they acquire.
Three new managers. Mets, Cubs, Guardians. Vogt just retired as an active player. 39 years old and he takes over in Cleveland. I am wondering if now that the Cubs have cut him loose, Ross might garner some interest elsewhere. Mookie and Freddie nominated for MVP, Outman for ROY. Doc did not get selected for manager of the year in the NL. Bochy on the AL list though. MLBTR has a contest for picking where the top 50 free agents might sign. Their experts, all three, believe Ohtani will end up in LA. But they only had one of the free agent pitchers coming to the Dodgers and he is not Japanese. It was Sonny Gray. I have long said that AF has only signed one pitcher for more than three years, Brandon McCarthy, I was wrong. He did sign Kenley Jansen for 5/80. My bad, I should have known that. Building inspection tomorrow for our HUD certification. Going to be a busy day. Google news is reporting that the Dodgers might have some interest in bringing Justin Turner back. Oh yeah, MLBTR’s prediction on salary for Ohtani, 12/528. That is a lot of cash. Tyler Gilbert, the D-Backs lefty who pitched a no-hitter in his first MLB start, has elected free agency. He was outrighted off of the D-Backs roster. He has been pitching out of their beullpen.
MLBTR’s analysts believe that Bellinger is going to sign with the Giants. The price? 12/264. Huh? Does make some sense in that Cody will only be 28 next year. They believe Yamamoto will end up in NY with the Yankees. They had three possible destinations for Snell at 7/200 mil. Phillies, Red Sox or the Dodgers. They all believe Nola signs with the Cardinals. Hader to the Rangers for 6/110.
You and I can pull numbers out of our butts too, but the truth is the so-called experts are also doing just that.
Yes they are. Rarely get it right
It occurred to me that the Dodgers could pay Burnes, Yelich, Chapman, Thomas, Imanaga, and either JDM or JT and still not have $528 Million in obligations.
I will guarantee that Ohtani will not get that much. He may hit the $400 Million threshold, but the only way he gets to $500 million is through incentives related to pitching.
Your first paragraph is why I don’t want the Dodgers to sign Ohtani. Not that I want those players though. It’s because AF can fill more holes for the price of Ohtani.
I have gone back and looked at past years’ predictions and the only constant is that the experts are generally wrong 95% of the time… and yet, we still fall for it. Pavlov rings the bell and we start salivating!
Starting rotation:
1. Miller
2. Buehler
3. Pepiot
4. Sheehan
5. Stone
Grove, Hurt, Knack, Frasso next
I like your thinking, but they need a LHP.
Imanaga on 5-year deal is perfect!
There is no guarantee that Striker will be back to what he once was. That is why I think they will go with one more pitcher.
Yep agree
The Athletic has the best Free Agent Coverage:
https://theathletic.com/5029170/2023/11/06/free-agents-mlb-list/?campaign=5888993&source=dailyemail
I believe that the Dodgers will prioritize starting pitching, but not necessarily by signing a free agent. Long term contacts are not usually a great idea for pitchers. That’s not always true, and the Dodgers could, in theory, sign a pitcher, but I kind of doubt that they will sign one for as long as it will probably take.
They haven’t signed a pitcher for longer than the 4 years given to Brandon McCarthy. In the past few years, they have signed Syndergaard, Heaney, and Anderson for 1 year each. The only exception in the last 5 years to a 1 year signing was Trevor Bauer for 3 years.
So with the current list of free agent pitchers, who would you sign for 5 or more seasons?
Aaron Nola
Blake Snell
Jordan Montgomery
Sonny Gray
Eduardo Rodriguez
Marcus Stroman
Lucas Giolito
Michael Wacha
Seth Lugo
There are a couple of international guys
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Shota Imanaga
They can take a shot at a SP by trade without the risk of a multi-year (5 or more) deal. They have to do something – Johnny G’s take of an all rookie rotation is a disaster waiting to happen. They will do something. But do they change their spots and offer a long term deal to a starting pitcher? I think not, but that’s what it will take to sign a top free agent starter.
Jansen got a 5 year deal, 5/80,
I think the most likely are Imanaga, Gray, Wacha, Lugo, and Giolito, some of who may be had on a 3-year deal.
Signing pitchers to deals over 3 years is more often than not, a bad move.
I’m feeling a little nostalgic for Ryu on a 1-year deal…
He has pitched in 17 games over the last two years, hard pass.
Dodgers have just made a significant acquisition. Lorenzo Sciarrino is rejoining the organization as Senior Vice President for Global Partnerships.
He was hired away from WME Sports to head the organization’s global sponsorship department, engineering franchise partnerships with businesses domestically and internationally.
Could this be a coincidence? No such thing.
The LA Times Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris report the Dodgers will be involved in pursuing Ohtani, of course, but Yamamoto and pitching sensation Roki Sasaki, although no one is quite sure when he’ll make the move to MLB.
The Dodgers are hoping to land one of those players and seemingly have a plan.
A player won’t just be limited to salary, but may have the opportunity to benefit from sponsorships too. The club will also look to enhance revenues through such opportunities.
It will be interesting to see if Friedman lets the Giants outbid him for Ohtani. If that happens and JD signs elsewhere who is the DH? Muncy? Who plays 3rd? lots of questions by spring training
Let’s the Giants outbid him???? First SF has to make an offer, then his agents will check and see if anyone goes higher. It is not up to Freidman. If JD is off of the board, there are a ton of DH type players on the market. Or players, like JT, who can actually play the field now and then. If Ohtani is not signed, I think the Dodgers won’t have just one player fill the DH role. Muncy will be at third, and on days he is not there, Taylor and Rojas can cover the position as can Busch and Vargas.
If the Dodgers are interested in going into the Asian market for players. Keep in mind what AF said in his press conference shortly after the Dodgers got knocked out of the playoffs. Pitching is his priority.
Also, I THINK a lot of people don’t realize why the Dodgers ended up with one of the best bullpens in baseball. It wasn’t because of guys like Ferguson, Almonte, Vesia, Kelly, Grove, Yarbrough. Take a look at Phillips, Brasier, S. Miller, Graterol stats. They were DOMINANT. Two of those guys are free agents.
It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers try to keep Brasier and Shelby Miller. Those guys will get some nice offers–and the Dodgers may not match.
Why not? Because AF & Associates have a strong track record of picking up discount RPs that need a little polish. The next Brasier could be Brasier–but he could be somebody else.
I am not too worried about the bullpen, because Hurt and others (Knack, Frasso, Ryan,??) are ready to step up. Treinen should be back too.
The rotation is far and away the biggest concern.
What if Ohtani’s ability to hit was adversely affected by his surgery. Just like Cody was by his injury and surgeries. I just don’t see why teams would want to invest so much money in an unknown situation. Maybe he signs a one year contract to DH.
Andrew, just use the money we don’t spend on Ohtani and our trade capital to build the best team you can.
Great take!
I am thinking he will get some sort of tiered deal. Maybe even performance based.
Honestly, I have no idea which direction the Dodgers should go.
Ohtani is a massive investment. The Dodgers need pitching above anything else.
I really like the young starters (Miller, Sheehan, Pepiot) and I’m hopeful that Walker Buehler will make an impact. I think he will.
Still, it would be nice to pick up a couple of veteran starters. They will cost. Montgomery could be the lefty, but Rangers may try to bring him back. Overpaying is something they do. No matter what, you’ll likely overpay, especially for a Boras client.
The Dodgers could always use Muncy as a DH, pick up another bat and work in Vargas and Busch at third and left field.
Most people I ask say the Dodgers should sign Ohtani and a couple of starting pitchers.
But how many teams can actually compete in the Ohtani sweepstakes? Not many. Three or four, maybe.
Figure the Dodgers, the Giants, New York Mets and maybe Boston.
At least that’s the opinion on MLB radio today as they eliminated most teams for one reason or another.
There is no “Right” answer.
The Rangers can afford to overpay after being horrible for years and drafting high, they have many youngsters who are making MLB minimum wage so they can afford a few crazy deals. It’s cyclical and it will crash and burn soon enough.
One of the questions asked by a reporter at AF’s end of season presser was whether any Dodger players were scheduled for surgery. He looked at Gomes and said no.
Now we learn Peralta had elbow surgery, CK had shoulder surgery and Kike Hernandez had double hernia surgery. I completely understand the in-season disclosing of injuries and being a bit guarded as to not give up a competitive advantage or to disclose prematurely a move the FO might contemplate, but why so coy at the end of the season?
Seems AF could have said “we’re not discussing/disclosing any injuries at the present time but to boldly answer “NO” no surgeries contemplated or needed really makes him appear aloof and not in touch.
Who cares?
They probably can’t answer due to HIPPA or club player protocol.
Aloof was a weird word choice.
1. The surgery very well may not have been “scheduled,” and
2. Out of privacy, he could not answer that question.
… and why is this an issue?
It just seemed obvious that Peralta had a bum elbow and CK had a bum shoulder and that surgery was needed. It’s not really an issue, just driving some off season discussion that I found odd AF wasn’t a bit more responsive in his answer.
Since none are currently Dodgers, there should be no problem. And Mark is right. Unless a player is injured, under contract, and everyone knows about the problem, off season surgeries by players are usually the players business. Unlike football, baseball doesn’t divulge much injurie information.
From Bruce Kuntz on Twitter:
The Dodgers had 27 players in their minor league system elect free agency today. Some notables who are no longer in the org:
-RHP Tyler Cyr
-IF Yonny Hernández
-C Tucker Barnhart
-RHP Ricky Vanasco
-IF Luis Yanel Diaz
-1B/DH Imanol Vargas
-OF Yusniel Díaz
-1B Justin Yurchak
From Morosi (ostensibly good for Vargas/Busch/DeLuca/Cartaya/etc.)
At the MLB GM Meetings, a trend to watch:
Team execs tell me trade conversations for position players are more serious now than at this time last year.
One reason: “Buying” clubs have more interest in players under club control than those available in free agency.
No player on that FA list was in the Dodgers’ plans… just organizational depth.
All of those guys were signed to minor league deals or acquired in trade as depth pieces. Only Hernandez and Cyr saw time in LA this year.
I kinda heard good things about Vanasco.
And they gave up a pretty good young prospect with a lot more years of control to get him.
Do you know who the prospect was?
Luis Valdez, who was not even in the TOP 50.
… and he had the same amount of control as Vanasco.
Vanasco was tantalizing as he throws 100, but the rumor is that he might be a meathead.
The fact that the Dodgers gave up on his quickly tells you something happened…
Interesting.
As I recall it, the Dodgers went out of their way to get Vanasco. Maybe they’ll try to keep him.
The others are probably better off with small market teams that provide more opportunity. Hope they find what they’re looking for.
Building inspection for HUD tomorrow, I am so frippen thrilled.
Here’s what the Athletic had to say about him in 2022:
10. Ricky Vanasco, RHP, High-A Hickory
Round 15/2017 (-1)
Vanasco has endured his fair share of adversity off the field since turning pro five years ago, but he’s now encountering some on the mound. Fully healthy for the first time since 2019, the 23-year-old has had spotty results at the High-A level this spring, walking more than a batter per inning and allowing three home runs in 14 1/3 innings (after surrendering the same number in more than 80 pro innings coming into the season). The numbers aren’t alarming — command is typically the last thing to come back after Tommy John surgery, which Vanasco had in September of 2020 — but the Rangers would like to see him settle into a rhythm before turning him loose in 2023.
The right-hander can reach back for upper-90s velocity and offers a power curve plus a slider and change. He has the kind of stuff that could play big in a relief role, but the organization hasn’t been deterred from deploying him as a starter, both for his development and potential trade value. Because of his missed time, Vanasco should be eligible for a fourth option in 2025 if needed — teams typically don’t get league confirmation on the extra option until the third option year — and the added time could be key.
Valdez pitched for 3 teams in rookie and A Ball last year with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP.
Teams are looking to add contact hitters. One of the reasons the Dodgers drafted Kendall George. There are already enough guys on the team who strike out a lot, Taylor, Muncy, without adding someone like Chapman, who struck out more than Muncy did last year.