Prospects: Let’s Get One Thing Straight!

Posted By on November 1, 2023

A few years ago, a player was called up by the Dodgers, and in his first call-up, he hit .143 with a .250 OB%. It was just eight plate appearances, so there was not much to go on. In his second season, he had 239 plate appearances and hit .215 with a .272 OB%. Well, like many of you would be quick to do, the Dodgers traded him, and that player, Paul Konerko, went on to hit 439 Career Home Runs with a .279 BA and a .841 OPS. Whoops! Even though they got Jeff Shaw back, I am sure the Dodgers would take a Mulligan on that one.

OK, I am just going to put this out there, and please do not take this the wrong way, but I have to say this:

I appreciate all of your takes, opinions, and prospects… but mostly when it is based upon study, research, and especially watching games in the minor leagues. To me, your opinions about prospects mean less than nothing if you are just looking at stats. No, let me rephrase that: “It is really silly to just look at stats!” There, I said it!

If you want to be an expert at evaluating minor league prospects, you have to hang around with scouts and scout types. You have to watch, day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year. You have to see these players in person. You have to watch them on MiLB TV. You have to read other’s scouting reports and reconcile that with what you see. Then maybe, just maybe… you will be qualified to make judgments about minor league players, and maybe you might be right half the time! HALF! The leading GMs and scouts and baseball insiders get it right, maybe slightly more than half the time. I heard one executive say that if you get player development right 54% of the time, you are a genius.

So, when I read comments that the Dodgers should trade Miguel Vargas, Diego Cartaya, or Michael Busch, it just makes me think someone who says that is dumb enough to do self-brain surgery. Progress is not linear – sometimes, you have to let it play out. Now, that does not mean that I would not trade Cartaya, Vargas, or Busch – I would do it in a heartbeat if it made the team better. “But I think Vargas is not going to be that good.” Fine, that’s your opinion, but if you are just looking at stats and a few YouTube videos, you are a moron! It takes a whole lot more than that to evaluate prospect talent, and you are still going to be wrong a lot more than half the time… if you are really, really good at it!

Many of the scout types are older. Do you know why that is? It often takes time to develop an “eye” for talent over the years. If I have to describe how that happens, you are not capable of understanding it! However, talent evaluation is not an easy or simple thing. Stats are just a tiny part of it, so in the future, make sure your opinions are informed ones. It’s OK to say, “Well, I saw him yada, yada, yada,” and that is fine, but you have to understand that it was ONE TIME!

I am not trying to stifle opinions, but I and many others I know spend a lot of time watching and discussing prospects. I subscribe to Baseball America and have every Prospect Handbook ever published. I read (and value) Keith Law, Jim Calais, and several others at Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Still, there is a lot more to know. I will continue to make predictions, and when someone less educated on minor league prospects occasionally make one or two predictions and then make fun of ones where I was wrong, I just consider the source.

Nobody gets it right, much more than 50%. One outta two ain’t bad! Maybe if you are a .300 hitter in talent evaluation, you are good. I am releasing my 2024 Top 30 Dodger Prospects. Here they are – If Miguel Vargas were a rookie, I would rank him #1, but he’s not!

  1. Michael Busch – 2024 – He needs a runway and a chance. I am not afraid of him in LF, 3B or 2B, but he will need some reps in any place.
  2. Emmet Sheehan – 2024 – He is on a fast track to becoming an elite pitcher. I did not expect to see him this soon, so he is a quick study.
  3. Diego Cartaya -2025 – I look at last season as an anomaly. Stuff happens… usually mental or personal stuff. If it continues, then I start to worry. His skills are off the chart. I hear from some that his swing is too long, and I don’t even know what that means! They are just words.
  4. Dalton Rushing – 2025 – He is a stone-cold hitter who may or may not change positions. Last season was challenging for him. Let’s see how he rebounds.
  5. Kyle Hurt – 2024 – He just needs to go to the bullpen, where he will be a multi-inning lockdown reliever.
  6. Landon Knack – 2024 – He is ready for the show, both physically and mentally. He has changed his work ethic, diet, and training. He’s a #3 or #4 in waiting.
  7. Gavin Stone – 2024 – He still needs to add another pitch, but control is the key. He finally started putting it together late last season.
  8. Andy Pages – 2024 – Last year was lost to injury. He had lost weight and was thinner and seemed poised to be a big-time outfield prospect. Can he take up where he left off? We shall see…. He does have “Light Tower Power!”
  9. Nick Frasso – 2024 – Filthy, nasty stuff. Control is getting better. He had a “Not Tommy John Surgery,” and the question is whether his arm holds up as a starter. He generally is not allowed to pitch more than 3 or 4 innings. That will likely change this year.
  10. Yenier Fernandez – 2024 – He has a unique skill set in that he can catch, and play 2B and SS. This is a guy who could be a nice utility man or more.
  11. Jonny DeLuca – 2024 – We saw him last year. He’s solid in the outfield and is a lefty killer. Works best in a platoon.
  12. Ronan Kopp – 2024 – If he harnesses his control, Kopp and Hurt will form a deadly multi-inning L-R duo unseen for a long time.
  13. Hunter Feduccia -2024 – I think he’s ready to be a backup and the fact that he hits LH is a plus. He is not the equal of Barnes behind the plate and how his bat plays is the question.
  14. Justin Wrobleski – 2025 – One of the few LH Starting pitchers in the Dodgers system. He had TJ a couple of years back and flashes a 95 MPH Fastball and a very good curve. One more pitch (probably his slider), and he will be a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. He is also in the process of mastering the cutter. I am high on him.
  15. River Ryan – 2025 – River is a great athlete who played SS and 2B as well as was a reliever in college. He is new to starting, but his fastball touches 99, and his slider hits 91, while his changeup and curve are improving. He really needs a full season at AAA, but he is another middle-of-the-rotation guy who has some really nasty stuff.
  16. Austin Gauthier – 2025 – This is a guy who likes to hit the ball hard and touch at least 1B. He is aggressive and physical. He can play DSS in a pinch, but 2B is his best spot. At worst, he is a utility man, and at best, he could be an occasional All-Star at 2B.
  17. Jorbit Vivas – 2025 – Somewhat a LH version of Gauthier, Vivas has the ability to use the entire field. He is a below-average runner, has below-average power, and is somewhat limited defensively. I do not see many players as trade bait, but he is one.
  18. Jake Pilarski – 2025 – I had him in the 20s until the AFL, where he is showing out as a closer. In 13 IP, he has a 0.71 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and averages 14.2 SO/9. He does walk 4 per 9, so he has to get better there. He has all that closer stuff!
  19. Jake Gelof -2026 – This is a guy who maybe should be in the Top 10 or 5, but I have not seen him enough to put him there. What I have seen reminds me of Austin Riley.
  20. Thayron Liranzo – 2026 – A switch-hitting catcher from the DR, he is still only 20 years old. He has plus, plus power but also has plenty of swing-and-miss. He’s very raw and has a very high offensive ceiling. His catching is slightly advanced but he has similar skills to Diego Cartaya.
  21. Josue De Paula – 2026 – Still a teenager, Jo is 6′ 3″ LH hitter with a sweet swing. He is skinny and will become much stronger as he matures. His ceiling is that of a Superstar, but he is horrid defensively. DH is his best position. I have only seen him on video, so there is a lot to learn.
  22. Kendall George – 2026 – George is very different from any Dodgers player in the fact that his speed is his biggest asset, and his speed will kill anyone. I am looking forward to seeing him in person, but he could be an asset in CF by 2026.
  23. Joendry Vargas – 2026 – Vargas is a RH 6′ 4″ SS, and we all know that shortstops that tall can’t succeed… right? He has a shot at being a high-average hitter with 25 HR power.
  24. Maddux Bruns – 2026 – Just 21, Maddux (named for Greg), has a high 90s fastball, a hammer curve, a high-quality slider, and a change-up. IF (BIG IF) he can harness his control, he could be a solid #2 lefty. If he can’t, he might not make it. It’s Boom or Bust!
  25. Damon Keith – 2026 – Damon has great power, strikes out a lot, and is a solid outfielder at each position. He is athletic and strikes out a lot. 2024 is an important year.
  26. Jose Ramos – 2026 – A very athletic outfielder, Ramos has PLUS raw power and poor plate discipline. He gives away too many at-bats. He’s dead red on fastballs but can’t hit breaking balls. He also has a cannon for an arm. You have to be patient with this guy.
  27. Jarod Karros – 2027 – At 6′ 7″ his fastball is barely over 90 MPH and he has some nice secondary pitches. Control will dictate how he does.
  28. Peyton Martin – 2027 – Martin is a nice RHP with a 98+ MPH fastball and an 82 MPH Change. His curveball is improving by the minute. He maintains his cool on the mound with a “presence” that is rarely seen. He is a guy to watch.
  29. Rayne Doncon – 2027 – Currently playing SS and 2B, Rayne has great bat speed and has a knack for barrelling up pitches. He could play 2B or 3B… most likely. He just turned 21 so he has a ways to go.
  30. Chris Newell – 2027 – A 22-year-old LH hitter, Newell has a lot of raw power and had a strong arm before his TJ surgery a couple of years ago. It is looking stronger, and he has above-average speed. He plays all three OF spots, but the corners are where he will likely end up. He could be a very solid hitter if he keeps this up.

Feel free to disagree. I will add some commentary in the next few weeks on the ones I did not cover. If there is a player you would like to know more about, just let me know. I don’t know it all, but I do get a lot of prospects right. When Andrew Toles was in Rancho Cucamonga, I predicted he would be in the Majors that same season. It happened… but of course, I loved Andy LaRoche, so there is that!

World Series

In case you have forgotten, there are twelve (count ’em – 12) teams that made the playoffs. This World Series pits the second worst of the twelve versus the worst of the twelve. Just so we are clear, the D-Backs are the team with the worst regular season record to make the World Series… ever! I have been watching (out of the corner of my eye), but I am having a hard time taking this seriously… and so are so many other fans. That’s all I will say… for now.

This article has 61 Comments

  1. My prayers and thoughts are with you and your family, Bear during these tough emotional times. You will find the inner strength to support the family’s needs and get through this.God bless you and your loved ones.

  2. Mark–Before I even read this, thank you for posting prospect content this morning. I needed it.

  3. I like your list a lot. I agree with your decision to put lower level guys lower until they prove it at a higher level. There’s plenty of time for those mega-talented guys.

    I have trouble ranking Knack [and also Pages] due to injury concerns.

    I’d have Stone higher, maybe #5, and Bruns higher too. Frasso & Ryan also seem too low.

    Pilarski, really? 😉

    Vivas is one to watch this year.

    Overall, nice job. I’m big on the young offensive studs. We need some impact bats in the system. I don’t care how old they are if they can handle the stick.

    I’ll have more to say later. Cheers.

      1. You have Jake Gelof listed twice 19th and 22nd. That’s how carefully I read what you wrote.

          1. Liranzo is the biggest helium guy to me but I’m fine with waiting until he can prove he can do it this season.

  4. So, Mark, love to read your thoughts on the Dodgers! I watch and read as much as possible on my beloved Dodgers but by no means am I an expert on anything! You on the other hand provide a great insight into the minor league system. Just as Bear is a walking historian on baseball! I don’t. know who ends up being the best prospect, Bush or Vargas. I can’t make that call, but I believe one of them will be traded. tough call, I think I would keep Busch, and if Arenado is available, put Vargas in a package for him. As for starting pitchers, if Clayton retires a left-handed pitcher, is top priority. And if clayton is gone, I think it’s time to let Barnes go as well. I liked your trade package with Milwaukee. Yelich in left works for me. I do hate to give up Lux though! Bear god bless you and your family. Mark, keep up the good work, I don’t agree with everything you say, but that’s why we’re American’s! Opinions matter, even bad ones like mine

    1. Thank you for the kind thoughts. Arenado is not going to be available. The Cardinals need his bat. They are also looking for pitching. They are loaded with infielders and outfielders. No on Yelich. His overall game is not what it once was, and I am not for getting this team older. They need an infusion of youth. If they tank for a year, so what, they still will draw 3 million fans. As a matter of fact, if they get locked in a tight race instead of running away from the rest of the division, attendance could go higher. Just think how many fans will go see them play Arizona next year after Az knocked them out of the playoff’s this year.

  5. Okay, I’m not a fan of the 12 team playoff.

    It takes away from the regular season, which is a marathon and not a sprint, but no doubt Rob Manfred likes it because it makes a lot of teams relevant and excites their fan bases. So I don’t think it is going away. They may try to tweak it because of criticism from teams that won a lot of games during the summer and now are watching on TV.

    I don’t believe the expanded playoffs led to the demise of the Dodgers. Too many injuries to starting pitching and the starters imploded and the offense flamed out.

    So what happened to Miguel Vargas? Jerry Hairston said he has great hands, which is why so many people were high on him. Then all that changed and so did his swing. He’ll need to return to his old approach to fulfill his potential. Right now and Dave Roberts said this, Michael Busch has surpassed Vargas.

    Either one could be a trade chip to acquire Corbin Burnes or Tyler Glasnow. The Dodgers priority beyond Shohei Ohtani is definitely starting pitching.

    I really like Emmett Sheehan as a starter next year along with Bobby Miller and Ryan Pepiot.

    Bill Plunkett of the Daily News thinks Clayton Kershaw will retire, the balky shoulder the reason. That will mean a vacant spot in the rotation, replaced probably by a trade target.

    I don’t see the Dodgers signing Aaron Nola or Blake Snell, that based on past action. But who knows? They did offer a couple of big, lengthy contracts previously, but were outbid in the end. So, we’ll see.

    It would appear the Dodgers have a strong group of prospects moving forward. Care to expand on Jake Gelof, Mark. You seem very high on him.

    2. Not much to like. It puts the teams who won at a disadvantage with the time off. Dodgers had to get in with a one game wild card in 21. Liked that better than this system.

  6. If Cartaya is good enough to catch every day what would the best position for Smith be? 3B like Todd Zeile, 2B like Biggio or would he need to play leftfield? He’s actually shorter than Biggio. That would leave two positions for Vargas, Busch, Taylor, Muncy, DeLuca and who ever doesn’t play SS between Lux and Rojas. If Busch and Vargas need a chance to play, will they get it? Obviously a trade can change things and maybe that is something the FO is considering to fill needs on the roster. I will be an interesting offseason.

    1. I think Will Smith could play anywhere, but Cartaya is at least 2025, unless he crashes and burns. Too much talent for that, IMHO.

  7. When I talked about Cartaya Busch and Vargas in possible trades it’s because the Dodgers need starting pitching. Also, the Dodgers usually produce better pitching than hitting. I don’t know how you didn’t understand that when I said that Mark.

  8. You forgot about the ‘73 Mets. Their winning percentage was .509, the Diamondbacks was .519

  9. Watching the first college football rankings last night, they posted what a 12 teams playoff would look like, which will obviously be the case next year. lots of great early match-ups but a much more difficult road to a championship. It made me wonder if the 12 teams format would do to college football what it has done to MLB. Could we see more new faces make it to the Natty?
    As for Will Smith, catchers can transition more easily to 3rd base. They don’t require extensive range, although Will can move well. They can pick short-hops all day long and are unfazed by bullets hit their way. 2nd base requires a different skill set that he may possess, but the footwork and range is much more demanding. Biggio did it well as he possessed great speed and feet for a catcher.
    Leftfield? Hell, Yogi Berra played some left field.
    third base would be my pick to get him from behind the plate. And I’d like to see them start that this spring; not permanently but periodically for a year.

    1. Smith has played 3rd once and 1st once in the majors. He played 3rd 58 times and 2nd 11 in the minors. He made 15 errors in 130 chances at the minor league level.

  12. Sam Hillard picked up by the Orioles on waivers. Has hit 8 of his 32 career homers off of the Dodgers. I read on Google news that although the Dodgers loved what he brought to the team, Peralta will most likely not be offered a deal. Jayson Heyward and the team have a mutual interest in him returning. Also the same news said that if Varga show’s improvement and that he can handle MLB pitching, the team will most likely move Michael Busch in a trade.

  13. Hopefully the World Series ends tonight and we can get on to the off season and what AF and BG have planned.

  14. Discussing’s Will’s potential to play 3rd base made my think that while there are basic skills needed, there are more ways then one to skin a cat. Comparing the Jung kid and his method to play the position versus Longoria’s veteran style of play, reflects this. Longo plays shallower, gets it in the air, frequently sidearm with fade and is a ‘Just in time guy” (as per David Ekstein). Jung winds up and brings his fastball to every throw. And both styles work.

    1. Mark, this is an excellent list. I applaud your independent thinking and find your scouting reports spot. Love the Gelof and P. Martin write-ups.

      Baseball America used to rank guys higher when they were advanced. They’ve gone more projection which is like Growth vs. Value stocks.

      How about this for a prediction: Feduccia looks good enough as a rookie to warrant Smith at DH 40-50 games. Barnes traded.

      1. I have a hard time getting a read on Feduccia. At times, he looks the part, and then he looks lost. I like him a lot, but Barnes is beloved by the team… So was AJ Ellis.

  16. MLBTR just reported that the Padres took out $50MM in loans to make payroll and are looking to reduce payroll by $50MM in 2024.

    1. Just as I suspected, they tried to act like Big Brother, but they are still our Little Sister!

  19. Gallen pitched a great game, for six innings. Lost no-hitter and shut out in the 7th. Seager scored the run. Eovaldi gave up 5 walks and 5 hits, but no runs in six. Chapman on for the 7th inning. Chapman is not the same pitcher he was a couple of years ago. His control comes and goes.

  23. Josh Sborz and his 5.50 Career ERA (5.08 ERA in 2023) looked like Cy Young.

    He was unhittable. Go figure!

    1. We suck at evaluating talent

      Half-kidding

      Yordan, Seager, Eovaldi, Sborz . . . . nightmares come true

  26. Baseball is an amazing game, very unpredictable.

    Two years ago people here mocked Corey for choosing Texas over the Dodgers, saying good luck with that bunch of losers and their 50 win seasons, and how he’d live to regret signing with them.

    Things can change very quickly in the Baseball world.

    Arizona were written off as being no better than a .500 team who would flame out, and Bruce Bochy, well his biggest attribute was being lucky….

  27. Old Bear – I would like to, see you do a writeup on the catcher who was a spy. Cannot remember his name. He wasn’t much of a hitter, but was brilliant. Mark – I love to read about prospects. Thanks for everything guys.

      1. First of all, condolences to you and your family, Bear

        And I can’t for that write up about Berg. A movie about Berg came out in ‘18, a fascinating depiction if a bit uneven (The Catcher Was a Spy,; Paul Rudd as Berg).

        Always enjoy the writeups, Bear. My fave is probably the one on Van Lingle Mungo: what a character! I especially like the profiles of players from eras past, always a fun read…..

  28. Mark.

    Stats haven’t done me wrong much.

    I’ve got Busch, Sheehan, Pages, Kopp, Frasso, Rushing, DeLuca, Stone, Knack, Pepiot (I guess he’s not a prospect anymore) in my top 10 prospects list and that isn’t the order I have them in. So STATS DO MATTER, because my list and yours look similar.

    My top 10 list was made before the 2023 season started and it included Outman and Miller. When they were no longer prospects, I moved my 2 best runners up into the top 10. I’ll be working on a new one soon. I make a list every year in the offseason.

    And remember who saw Smith and Outman before they were ranked near or in the top 10 “experts” lists. Yes me.

    “but if you are just looking at stats and a few YouTube videos, you are a moron!”

    I’m going to push back at you whenever you call me a moron or something similar, just because I do things different than you. You’re not who you think you are, A LOT smarter than everyone else. That is called being conceited. If I’m a moron then you’re conceited. And I know you were talking about me.

  29. Oh I forgot, I had Vargas and Cartaya in my top 10. Vargas isn’t a prospect anymore, so I moved him out during the season and I already know I will have Cartaya barely out or in my top 10 when I make a new list. So I made some adjustment during the year.

    1. I looked at your list again and I had Ryan and Hurt as runners up. So if you know it all, like you say you do, then STATS DO MATTER.

  30. Bruce Bochy punched his ticket to Cooperstown for sure with this win by the Rangers. Four World Champions. Twice as a wild-card team. 2014 and this year. He also became the first manager to win a World Series with a team he defeated in the World Series. Texas.

  31. Solid list.
    I guess, technically, Vargas has lost prospect status, but he’s a minor leaguer again and I tend to lump him and Busch together. Both get raves for their hitting ability but neither has distinguished himself on defense.
    Seems to me that Busch, with his power, could be the next Konerko. A trade might be the best thing that could happen to him. Rightly or wrongly, the Dodgers brass figured Konerko would never beat out Karros–and that turned out to be a blessing for Konerko.
    Konerko brought Shaw. Maybe Busch can help bring Burnes.
    So maybe….
    Sheehan + Busch + Knack for Burnes + Yelich?

  32. Eric,

    I am going to respond to all of your rants right here:

    #1 and foremost: I have never said that I know it all. I have said that I get it right about half the time, so you have started by delivering a false narrative. Everything past that is spurious!

    2. I never called you a moron, but if you identify as one. I can’t stop you. If stats mean a lot, why is Cartaya in the Top 30? His stats don’t warrant that. I call Bullshit! Stats are a thing, but a few years ago several teams got rid of their scouts in favor of statistical analysis. In the book “Moneyball” Michael Lewis fed the idea that statistical analysis would make scouts extinct. That turned out to be one of the most moronic suppositions ever.

    I never called you a moron, but if you identify as one by only using statistics, that is on you! It’s a free country, and you are free to pursue life, liberty, and statistics as you see fit. However, if you see me laughing hysterically, don’t give it a second thought!

Comments are closed.