I did not say that, but the media in Cincinnati IS saying that. Elly is a couple of years younger than Miguel Vargas, who also flopped in his first season in MLB. The media makes a good argument as to De La Cruz’s regression, but where they lose me is the assertion that a several-month slump is an indication of De La Cruz’s future as a ball player, which is downright moronic.
I don’t claim to know how good of a player De La Cruz will end up being, and frankly, no one does. The fact is, he’s a freak of nature, the likes of which we haven’t seen before. Sometimes, it’s best to let matters play out rather than jumping to conclusions in a headline.
Miguel Vargas is not nearly the freak that Elly is, but Miggy has a unique skill set. Elly’s ceiling is the Hall of Fame. Miggy’s ceiling is that of an occasional All-Star. I was at the game in Cincinnati when Elly De La Cruz made his debut and was sitting five rows in back of 3B, which was where Elly made his debut. When he ran onto the field, it was obvious that this kid was different… even special. I had seen him in highlights and such but never in a game and I immediately became a fan. I think he will go on to a HOF career, but if he doesn’t, he will not be the first prospect to flame out. Remember, progress is not linear.
Elly started in June and hot .307. In July, he hit .238 and then in August he hit .198. He is currently batting .161 for September. Long, lanky players frequently faulter after the league figures out they can be pitched in a certain manner and that (due to their length) they can’t hit certain pitches. That is part of what happened to Miguel Vargas (he is 6′ 3″), Cody Bellinger (6′ 4″), and it happened to Elly De La Cruz (6′ 4″). Cody adjusted, but it remains to be seen if Miggy and Elly can also do that. The question is: “Can they re-adjust? I do not have the answer to that question, but I still look at the skillset of the respective players and know that it is possible.
Miguel Vargas hit .213 in April, .223 in May, and then nose-dived in June and July to .149 and .133 respectively. What happened? Well, the league pitched him inside more and gave him fewer strikes and the team was evidently re-tooling his swing. His swing has also changed since he went back to OKC – you can see it very readily. I still look at the “overall skill set” and have a lot of hope for Miggy and Elly. I do not expect Miggly to be the Superstar that Elly might be, but I see him as a very good player who works hard to improve. The hard work pays off. Ask James Outman, who is also a very hard worker and has made himself into a very good player… who I believe will continue his growth.
Miggy Vargas will not likely be back this year (unless he is traded… and you never know), but he will certainly be in the mix next year. His position is yet to be determined. He could see time in LF, 2B, 3B and even 1B. I think that his “new swing” is a “work in progress” and that he may look entirely different next April. Can he reach the level that his talent indicates? That’s what we don’t know, but just like Cody Bellinger bounced back, Elly and Miggy both could have fabulous careers ahead of them. I am a fan of each. I am also a fan of Jonny DeLuca and Michael Busch, and I am eagerly waiting to see how Andy Pages plays after missing most of this season. Don’t forget about him.
Dodger News
- The Athletic provides some insight into how Mookie may actually be more valuable than Ronald Acuna, Jr. Brandon Gomes said this: “From our standpoint, his ability to play multiple positions speaks volumes. It has allowed us to get both of our corner outfielders — both (Jason) Heyward and (David) Peralta — into the lineup with regularity. … (Plus), if there’s a really tough lefty, we can hit one of our right-handed-hitting infielders, and we can kick (Betts) back out to right field, and we don’t miss a beat, defensively.” (see more below)
- Great Lakes lost their Championship Series, but the OKC Dodgers start their Championship Series on September 26th against a team to be decided.
- Anyone who has concluded that Emmet Sheehand is a reliever has only been looking at small snippets of his career. This guy is destined to be a #2 Starter. He is a horse. He is also very young. Give it time. This is on-the-job training.
- The Dodgers’ Relief Corps is solidly entrenched in the #2 spot (behind the Yankees) and are just 0.11 from taking that spot themselves. I would not bet against them. On June 19th, when the Dodgers bullpen was #29 in baseball, who thought they could be #1? Not even me – but I predicted Top 5!
- Man, am I enjoying this ride! 94 wins with ten games to go. The only important thing is “Just Win Baby!”
- It is especially sweet to beat the Giants because well…
The Athletic’s Levi Weaver & Ken Rosenthal went on to say:
I came into the conversation thinking there was no way I could be talked out of Acuña as NL MVP (I don’t have a vote in that category, by the way). Come on — a 40/70 season? That felt like a slam dunk.
“Prior to making some of the moves we did, we really didn’t have another shortstop,” Gomes said. “So for Mookie to go play shortstop at at least an average level, in addition to second and right field, really helped us keep our heads above water until we could get some reinforcements.”
But Gomes makes a compelling point. Betts’ numbers aren’t as big, round and historic as Acuña’s, but he’s right there in terms of production (all numbers as of last night).
Acuña: 7.9 bWAR, 7.7 fWAR, .338/.418/.596 (1.014 OPS)
Betts: 8.1 bWAR, 8.1 fWAR, .311/.410/.596 (1.006 OPS)
Gomes raises one other point. There was a specific stretch when Betts’ versatility was essential. When Miguel Rojas went on the injured list in mid-April with a hamstring strain (and with Gavin Lux already out for the year with a torn ACL), Betts stepped in.
Lastly, Gomes said Betts’ willingness to move around the diamond has sent a message to the rest of the organization: If the team’s biggest star is willing to do whatever it takes to help the team win, nobody has an excuse not to.
That is a very compelling argument for Mookie.
If I’m not mistaken, the Vegas over under for the Dodgers this year was 95-96 wins?
Back in March/April, I would’ve been ecstatic with 95 wins. Now, I expect 100. And that with no Buehler, May, Gonsolin, Urias, 1/2 Kersh. Truly amazing.
I believe the magic # for having a bye in round 1 is now down to 2.
Nice piece, Mark.
In a year when we saw our minor league depth explode onto the major league roster, all chances need to be provided next year for the young hitters to produce.
Lux, Vargas, Busch, Deluca, Feduccia should all get long looks to make the opening day roster.
Pages needs to get healthy.
Any other sleepers out there I’m missing?
I am working on that piece! 😉
Lux is a given unless he gets traded. He will not lose his roster spot because of an injury. Feduccia is 26 years old. He might get a look and he might not considering they have so many catching prospects already. Vargas, Busch, if not traded and DeLuca will get long looks. So will a couple of the pitchers down there like Hurt.
This is the perfect year to sign a veteran SP to a short-term deal.
I don’t question Lux keeping a roster spot. I question where he plays. Rojas should be the everyday SS and I don’t think that Lux is close as a defender. If Lux hits, they’ll find a spot. A trade wouldn’t surprise me once he shows he can play on that knee.
I agree. Lux to me is a second baseman. But I like Mookie there better. Prove the knee is sound and trade him for pitching.
Not a great idea, thanks.
Oh, and one other thing:
Former Dodgers Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen Will Miss the Postseason for First Time in a Decade
Yeah screw Boston.
The curse of Mookie Betts will haunt them just like the curse of the Babe….
Hate it for those 2 guys, but for Mr. Trash can Cora, congratulations cheater. Who you throwing under the bus for this failed season? Maybe if they fire you AJ Hinch will give a job! Taking out the trash? Emmit almost had a very special night, 3 less walks and who knows!
It’s going to be a very interesting offseason across MLB. I can foresee Cora getting canned in Boston, along with AJ Preller in SD. Is Farhan safe in SF?…..ownership has said he’s good for next year but he has largely “flopped” in his five years as the team president sans the 107 win season.
Will Josh Byrnes get consideration for the president/ GM job in Boston and if he gets hired does AF reunite with Chaim Bloom? Does Aaron Boone get axed in NY? The Rockies have been door mats for a long time…..has Bud Black seen enough and like Jim Leyland will say enough is enough in the Mile High City?
I can see a lot of “pink slips” being offered in about two weeks. Some might surprise us, others are surely to be expected.
Glendale Dessert Dogs AFL Roster (Dodgers only)
Ronan Kopp
Ryan Sublette
Kendall Williams
Ben Casparius
Jake Pilarski
Yenier Fernandez
Jake Vogel
Damon Keith
Really pushing Casparius. Need to restock after so many promotions. Wrobleski might be ace of that staff.
I loathe the Giants. It couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/09/19/san-francisco-giants-mlb-boring-postseason-contenders-nl-wild-card?fbclid=IwAR13BGFD8NhQt1Jrby-MHsWQFKjQsA92xB0q4NtE23gLdLo0QNS5UtNs1kM
Sometimes the law of high expectations comes back to bite you. Such is the case with Miguel Vargas. Sure thing, prime time ready, glowing reviews. Boy, can he hit, the kid is special.
Maybe it was a bit much.
The lesser prospect was James Outman. Some didn’t think he would make the opening day roster.
But here we are. Vargas was given a lot of opportunity and now is back in the minors. Outman has made an impact in the majors. Started fast, slipped a little, made some adjustments, but he’s an impact player.
All that being said, I still think Vargas has an opportunity to make an impact in 2024, but as Dave Roberts has said, Michael Busch has outperformed him. Busch needs to be afforded the same opportunity that Vargas had. Honestly, I think both players can impact next year.
I am seldom for trading prospects, but if Vargas or Busch could return a quality piece, I’d be for it. However, I would rather keep them both. I think Vargas swing re-vamp was a factor in his demise this year. We shall see if it works. The Dodgers have a history of success doing so.
We’ve all seen it before; the dreaded “swing revamp”.
Superficially, you have to ask “why”? Here’s a kid who was at the top of the prospect list with Diego Cartaya. Those 2 were untouchables in trades and projected as can’t miss MLB players. And both have had disappointing seasons offensively.
My interest is when the revamping of Vargas’ swing began? Was it before, during or after he struggled to hit in the Bigs? Something they saw that he had to fix to reach his potential as a Major League hitter?
Or did his demise begin AFTER they started tweeting his swing?
We have all seen some over-hyped, over-evaluated kids not cut it. We’ve also seen kids that were victims of their organizations wanting to “fix” what isn’t broken. They like robots who hit their way.
Mark, I’m interested in your take on Vargas’ revamped swing.
* Sheehan looked awesome through 4 and ran out of gas. He lost his legs that effected his balance and his alignment to the mitt. He got away with some mistakes in the middle, but the Giants missed them. He has some serious swing & miss stuff. The loss of command did him in. With more on the line I think Doc pulls the plug a hitter or 2 earlier.
I think he’s a one-time-through the line up guy RHRP in the post season. And he’s effective against LHB, which is a bonus with our lack of quality depth from LHP, Vesia and V-Gon.
* I had a very pleasant listen from Kruk and Kniper. Real pros with plenty of information without the rambling. Very complimentary of the Dodgers especially Sheehan. Too bad they are in the Giants booth. They may be the best pair in the business.
* Speaking of pairs. Since I watch the Giant’s broadcast, I don’t know if the SNLA cameras showed the centerfielder, Tyler Fitzgerald’s family and fiancee in the stands, for his big league debut? If not, you missed out. Fiancee, Sadie, is a knock-out from Knockerville, Ca. (that’s a lie) And the Giant’s camera thankfully never left her during her man’s at bats. His double was only appropriate.
* Giant rookie starter Kyle Harrison was very good in his 5 innings. It’s really nice to see all of the young guys getting to the bigs. When he left the game it was “get the women and children indoors”. Wow, how bad is the Giants bullpen giving up 5 earned runs in 2.2 innings.
* The HPU, Erich Bacchus, was great on balls and strikes. Umpire Scorecard confirmed this this morning. They had him missing ONE pitch all night. His accuracy was super. If it hit the line, it was a strike, missed it was a ball. He was a human ABS. Especially nice to see since tonight we get the Crew Chief, Las Diaz.
Good analysis Phil, always enjoy your posts.
Just curious if you ever listened to the Mets broadcasts?
I enjoy there broadcast team of Gary Cohen, Ron Darling and/or Keith Hernandez. It’s a 3 man booth but it works and they all know the game real well.
I thing tonight’s game is on Apple TV so that suck.
Thanks Zeke. I have listened to the Mets broadcast and I think they are really good. I typically don’t like 3 man booths but they pull it off. I’m amazed I like Keith Hernandez in the booth as I couldn’t stand him as an arrogant player. But he’s good in the booth. You’re right, they really know the game.
New York is blessed with2 teams having top notch booths. As I mentioned, Michael Kay and David Cone are the best. Not so much Paul O’Neil.
I wish Apple would just keep building my computers and stop broadcasting baseball games.
There is sort of an irony about Apple Sports broadcasts.
The PAC-12 Presidents and AD’s, led by Commish George Kliakoff, turned down ESPNs 35 million per team, per year TV contract offer in 2022. They wanted $50 million per team to close the $ gap with the Big-10 and SEC. Kliakoff was assigned to get a better deal. A year later, he presented that group with his NEW best deal. $25 million per with Apple. That led to the collapse of the, then, PAC-10, with all bolting within days, except WSU and OSU.
In my wildest nightmare I can’t imagine how a deal with Apple’s subscription TV would attract viewers? Gee why wouldn’t fans in the SEC, after drinking all day and rooting on their teams, spend subscription money to watch Cal and WSU?
Maybe someday. But not now. And I’m pissed they do any Dodger games.
And get off my lawn!
You got that right! Hell, I only stream these days so I can’t even watch the ESPN broadcast, nor can I watch the Rockies broadcast when they play the Dodgers since I don’t have cable. I sure hope they don’t add any more broadcasters I don’t want to lose any more games.
Cheers
OG Papi
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OG EJO
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I know Orel can be annoying. But he DOES know his pitching.
I used to think if we could get 6 innings from a starter in the post season that would be great. But now it seems that inning 5 is the issue. So with all the arms we have send these guys like Kersh, Lynn, Miller, etc out there for 4 innings.
“The Dodgers began the 2023 season with baseball’s No. 1 farm system, but with Bobby Miller (No. 2), Miguel Vargas (No. 3), Ryan Pepiot (No. 7) and James Outman (No. 9) all moving on to the majors and Diego Cartaya struggling through a down year, they have slipped to the middle of the pack.” #14
That’s the right reason to drop in the rankings. Your top guys are on the big club.
Phil,
There has been nothing official on a re-do, re-vamp, or whatever it is.
I do know that his dad was his “quasi-batting coach” and they had a little tiff this year. His swing is obviously different, so I am jumping to the logical conclusion.
I think it did affect him, but maybe it needed to be done.
Thanks Mark. Interesting conversation. As you correctly point out often, process isn’t linear and these are the kind of circumstances that make it so.
I’ve seen a lot of good golfers go in the toilet trying to improve an already good golf swing. Sometimes the changes don’t work and they struggle to find their old swing.
I have two golf swings:
One is lost, and the other is out looking for it!
I asked the pro what I should do about my golf swing and he said “buy a bowling ball”
I am amazed when I see a catcher on a knee when a batter has 2 strikes or runners are on base.
The Dodgers were gifted 2 runs last night due to the catcher being lazy.
10:10 PM ET
Giants (76-77)
Dodgers (94-58)
SP Sean Manaea L
6-6 4.82 ERA
SP Ryan Yarbrough L
8-6 3.73 ERA PRIM
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
DH J. Martinez R
2B Amed Rosario R
LF Chris Taylor R
3B E. Hernandez R
CF James Outman L
SS Miguel Rojas R
Well, I sure wish the Dodgers had a bust like Elly De La Cruz…
Right now I am less concerned about how the Dodgers might look next season than how the team is gearing up for the playoffs.
Overall, I think the team is in pretty good shape, with about 90% of the hitters in fine form and the bullpen terrific. The questions mostly concern the patchwork rotation, but it’s exciting that rookies Miller, Sheehan and Pepiot all figure to play significant roles.
Roberts has talked about “optionality” a lot, and the platoons are mostly working. I hope he considers another option of the postseason: moving Will Smith down in the batting order a bit.
Why? Because Smith is one of the hitters who is struggling now. Over the past 30 days, Smith has an OPS of .690, and his OBP is .333. We know that Mookie and Freddie are a great one-two punch, and Smith has been very good until recently. But what about now?
Against righties, perhaps Max should bat 3rd. Over the past 30 days, his OPS is .943, with a .280 BA. Another option is Heyward, who’s production over the period has been even better. To preserve the L/R pattern the brass likes, JDM can be slotted between Max and Heyward (or Heyward and Max), and Smith could be placed behind them.
My lineup card would look like this:
Mookie 2B
Freddie 1B
Max 3B
JDM DH
Heyward RF
Smith C
Outman CF
Rojas SS
Peralta LF
Note that this lineup rewards Outman for outperforming Peralta, especially recently. Over the last 30 days, Outman has hit to a .785 OPS (about his season average) while Peralta has slumped to .533. Rojas has hit even better.
I’ve kvetched before about Peralta hitting ahead of Heyward and Outman. I think he’s earned a lower spot in the lineup.
It has been a wonderful, crazy season! I say “wonderful” because we are back to playing baseball the way it was meant to be played and teams are now making the personnel adjustments to do so.
I say “crazy” because I find myself in the last few days rooting for the Giants to beat the Dodgers. Why? The Diamondbacks are falterintg while the Padres are surging and I don’t want the “clowns” from the South to make the playoffs. Anyone but the Padres!
Go Dodgers in the playoffs…