In a season that has been so improbable, it has been a fun ride! But, now we are all dying to get to the Legends of the Fall (one of my favorite movies, BTW). Hopefully, some more legends will be made then. Bobby Miller has been anointed as the Dodgers Ace… a year or two earlier than anyone could have predicted. The only question is whether he starts game one or if the Dodgers use an “opener.” The opener is the Dodgers’ only salvation. Lance Lynn, Bobby Miller, and maybe Ryan Pepiot will likely be the only Dodger starters to open games… and BTW, I think the Dodgers will likely change some of Lynn’s pitching patterns for the playoffs.
After Lynn and Miller, it will likely be Kershaw and Sheehan and Ferguson, Stone and Yarbrough in some order. Last night, OKC beat Albuquacky 13-8, with Michael Grove going 1.1 innings and striking out four batters. Tyson Miller went two shutout innings, striking out three. Busch and Vargas both homered – both were 2-6, with Vargas having three RBI and Busch having two. Oscar Mercado was 3-5 with 4 RBI and his 12th HR.
Busch, Vargas, and Jonny De Luca are all very much in the Dodgers’ plans for next year. Many fans think Busch will be traded, but as the lone lefty, he is probably the safest. LH power is at a premium. It’s hard to know where they might play, except for De Luca, who will be the #4 OF’er. I think Jason Heyward will be back unless someone promises him a full-time gig, but I think even he knows that will not be wise. I wish that David Peralta could also return, but he will be 37 next year, and it seems unlikely unless he is just intent on returning.
It all boils down to whether the Dodgers are ready to put Mookie at 2B next season. If so, I could see Lux and Rojas platoon at SS and Vargas or Busch at 3B and the other one in LF. The youth movement has to keep moving. Michael Busch played three years of college ball, followed by four seasons in the minors. The average ages of the two leagues’ Rookies of the Year were 22.4 and 23.6 years old, for the AL and NL, respectively. Busch will be 26 next year. What’s wrong with that? James Outman was a 26-year-old rookie this year… and by the way, he is showing an incredible ability to work hard and get better. His defense has improved immensely over the season. I had doubts that he could remain in CF early in the season, but he has worked his ass off and demonstrated last night that he can not only play CF, but he might play it at a Gold Glove level.
Not only was the catch outstanding, but the way he jumped back up to his feel (like a big cat) was incredible. His strikeouts are still alarming, but I think he will also work on that as well and get better. He has that makeup. Also, his BA is higher against Lefties, even though 95% of his HRs are against RHP.
I do not see the Dodgers signing Chapman or Ohtani and a starting pitcher for any longer than 3 or 4 years (unless someone really wants to be a Dodger). Those contracts become boat anchors, and you cannot sustain success. I could see this as a possibility next season:
C- Smith & Barnes
1B – Freddie Freeman
2B – Mookie Betts
SS – Miguel Rojas/Gavin Lux
3B – Michael Busch
LF – Miguel Vargas
CF – James Outman
RF – Jason Heyward/Jonny De Luca
DH – Max Muncy
Utility – Kike Hernandez
I can see AF overpaying for a short-term deal for a Starting Pitcher, and the Dodgers need LH starters, so Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery could be on their radar. High/AAV, shorter-term deal. The Dodgers do not have many lefties in their system, and they are a year or two away at best. As I have mentioned before, Lynn could be back on a lesser $$$ deal.
Jayne Cobb posted this last night, and it is worth watching as it shows the character of this Dodger crew.
It’s fun to speculate on next year, but the Dodgers have got one to win right in front of their faces. Let’s Ride! Tonight, it’s the Giants with Emmet Sheehan taking the mound. So all that is left are:
- 4 Games vs. the Giants at home
- 4 Games vs. the Rookies at Denver
- 3 Games vs. the Giants at SF
- It would be nice to sweep them all
Down on the Farm
- Great Lakes won the Suspended Game 2 of the Championship Series (4-2) as Ronan Kopp faced seven batters, shrinking out four and walking three. The 6′ 7″ Lefty seems destined for the bullpen, but they are also tempted to start him. His control is the issue. This year, he has struck out 107 in 72 IP but has also walked 50! The league only hits .184 against him, so if he can throw strikes… Alex Freeland and Yenier Fernandez were both 2-4, as Freeland hit a HR. Kenneth Betancourt also homered in the 9th to seal the deal. The Loons then lost the Third Game 7-6 as they fell behind in the series 2-1. Dalton Rushing was 2-2 with 2 BBs, a double and HR. He had 3 RBIs. Betancourt was 2-3. Maddux Bruns and Jarod Karros were shelled, giving up all seven runs!
- Rancho Cucamonga was beaten on Tuesday night by Modesto for the Championship.
- OKC is the only team left playing.
- The AFL Rosters should be out soon.
Is there a place for CT3 next year? And I feel AF will definitely sign a top starting pitcher
Taylor is under contract thru 2025, with a club option in 2026. He makes about $15m AAV–overpaid, in my view– so he’d be hard to trade unless the Dodgers covered part of the salary But he is an excellent UT guy and could serve in a platoon at various positions, such as Max/Taylor at 3B. (While I like the idea of moving Max to DH, I don’t think Vargas or Busch would provide a defensive upgrade. There’s no reason to move Max unless you can improve the D. If they don’t go after Chapman, perhaps a guy like Jeimer Candelario would fit. What trade targets are out there?)
So Taylor is one of the reasons that Vargas or Busch are likely to be traded–most likely Busch, because he is older and BECAUSE he is a lefty slugger and was just named Minor League Player of the Year. Anyway, I think both must be much better than what they’ve shown at the ML level, but I don’t think there’s room for both on next year’s roster.
I agree that Peralta will be gone and Heyward will want to come back. He’s thrived in a platoon role on this team.
Taylor will come up big in the postseason, maybe a HR, maybe a catch, maybe a SB but he will do something big for us.
Book it.
There’s nothing wrong with a 26-year-old rookie…. if he has a clear position to play.
Outman was and is a pure outfielder–athletic, fast, strong arm. DeLuca is similar. We know he can be a good outfielder.
Busch was always rated ahead of Outman as a prospect–but we still aren’t sure where he should play on this Dodgers team. Another team could pencil him at 1B, or maybe 2B–but not these Dodgers. His arm is OK for 2B or LF, but not 3B. He could DH, of course, but that’s an odd job for a rookie.
My guess is that Busch would be Tiger now if the trade hadn’t fallen apart.
There are actually four games left in Denver. The 26th is a day-night doubleheader. I already corrected it. So, Freeman has four home games and 7 on the road to get to 60 doubles. Coors is a great place to hit doubles. Mookie needs one homer and one RBI to set the all-time record for homers and RBIs by a leadoff man. JD needs one homer for30. Smith needs two to get to 20. Heyward needs 5. Muncy needs one more to have his career high. We won’t see Cobb for the Giants; he is on the IL. Webb has stunk up the joint lately. And to top it all off, the Giants are not scoring runs and they are () that close to being mathematically eliminated. Everyone has noticed that the Padres have won 6 straight. Problem for the Pads is, they have to leap over four teams to secure a postseason spot. And, they only have 9 games to do so. If they won out, they would finish with 84 wins. The Phillies need one to reach that number, the D-Backs need 3. The Cubs, who hold the third slot by .5 over Miami, need 5. Miami needs 5, but they have one less game than the Cubs. Pads have to win 9 more and hope the teams in front of them collapse.
Man, I would hate it if the Pads somehow leapfrog the other contenders for a wild card spot. I really don’t want their season to end on a positive note.
Worst case scenario: Pads bounce the Dodgers again.
On Ohtani’s surgery:
“The ultimate plan after deliberation with Shohei, was to repair the issue at hand and to reinforce the healthy ligament in place while adding viable tissue for the longevity of the elbow,” ElAttrache said in the statement released by agent Nez Balelo. “I expect full recovery and he’ll be ready to hit without any restrictions come opening day of 2024 and do both (hit & pitch) come 2025.”
Think about it, Ohtoni will only be used as a DH when he pitches or not which doesn’t allow other players like Will Smith to DH when not catching. Secondly he only pitches every sixth day as a 6th starter which takes away one of your relievers and are only left with 7 on the roster instead of 8 relievers.. Thirdly the investment will not be justified in the long and short run to acquire multiple players that will be needed in 2024 and beyond. Putting my GM hat on, PASS!!!
I am looking forward to the post season “run-offs” of the Great Mascot races. How does MLB keep coming up with these great ideas for filling in the time between innings?
I think those stunts are team driven.
Neither Busch nor Vargas have distinguished themselves defensively, although I thought that Busch looked better at 3B than I expected. I think that the jury is out on both of them, as well as De Luca.
I expect that Outman will be patrolling CF next year and that Pepiot and Miller will be part of the rotation. Beyond that, I have no predictions for other prospects next year. It’s early and all of that, but Vargas, Busch and De Luca have not yet shown that they can hit big league pitching and Vargas and Busch are question marks in the field as well.
Sheehan seems to have improved some, but Stone and Grove have not shown any consistency at the big league level yet. Will they? I have consulted my Magic 8 Ball, and it says “Reply hazy, try again”.
* It’s too early for me to get excited and speculative about next year’s roster but I will say this; I’d like to see both Heyward and Peralta back. I thought that Vargas improved a lot and became a better 2nd baseman then Lux. But he just wasn’t ready offensively. I like Mookie at 2nd base. I think Will Smith needs a look at 3rd base. I think CT3 is expendable in favor of Kike but we’d have to eat some salary. I still envision someday of a rotation with Beuhler, May, Miller, Pepiot and we’ll see from a nice pool of possibles. Sheehan looks like a bullpen piece to me.
* I like Bobby Miller more every time he pitches. He’s just developing before our eyes. He is developing a trait I love in an ACE. He’s a dick.
Some players play better joking and happy like Mookie and Freddie. That generally doesn’t work for pitchers.
As a coach, I always liked a kid who was competitive as hell and a little bit over the top. You can calm that down with coaching and time.
Miller’s done that and shows nothing, overtly. He’s a flat liner. But you know inside he’s competing and saying “ I’m going to throws this right by your sorry ass”. I love an attitude and the greats had it; Gibson, Drysdale, Roger, Randy. They wanted to demoralize the hitters. Miller shows me some of that early in his career and I like that.
* Jess sadly resorted to making stuff up again last night. It’s like she feels it’s necessary to fill air time even if it’s misinformation. Muncy made a nice pick to his left and just made a bad throw. Instead of that correct information, Mendoza offered up a paragraph on how Max never got set. That’s just incorrect. He set his feet and just made a shitty throw. It happens. It’s a famous trick of analysts . Make something up and say “see” during the replay when actually you can’t see it at all because it didn’t happen. The best at it was Tim McCarver and John Smoltz is close.
* The right fielder for the Tigers is a dude. Kerry Carpenter has caught my eye and is a kid I would pay attention to down the road. He’s a .290/.847 hitter who’s signed through 23 for the minimum. Arbitration eligible in 26. He’s especially tough on RHP. If you need a LHB and a nice defender in right, he’s worth a look.
* Last year we had a tendency for the hitting faucet to be on full blast or totally shut off. We did that again last night. Maybe those 3 Tiger pitchers were that good to hold us to 3 hits?
Friendly vs. Over the Top personalities for pitchers – can you imagine Mookie as a pitcher? First time up for each batter he strolls up to the plate and gives them a fist bump and a pat on the back plus his big smile. “Great to see you, Jim. Have a great game.” When the guy homers off of him, he drops his glove and applauds. Just Mookie being Mookie. I love watching him enjoy every game he plays in, but you’re right, that personality probably doesn’t work for a pitcher.
Jessica – Oy vey! She absolutely can’t stand silence. I can just see her giving a running commentary at home every time the gardener or the plumber shows up. Turns to her husband and kids, “see he’s doing a 3/4 turn on the wrench. Great form!” “That’s one of the best hedge clips I’ve seen. Reminds me of one I saw at Stanford back in my college days.” I wouldn’t be surprised if her husband has a job that requires a lot of travel.
I’m a Carpenter fan too. He should have a very nice career.
On-off hitting faucet. I haven’t checked the stats but it seems to me that this may have actually been more of a problem last year. I think part of last night may have just been that they’re not playing for anything right now and are looking ahead to the post season. My lasting impression of this team’s offense is that they never just throw in the towel. They don’t win every game but you can normally count on them to put something up on the scoreboard in the later innings.
We need Don Drysdale to return – loved his attitude!
Big D would be 86, not sure he would throw very hard. But a clone of him would be nice. How about a Al Hrabowski clone??
Alex Vesia reminds me of the Mad Hungarian a bit. Or he did until the pitch clock.
If Hrabosky had to throw with a pitch clock he would have been known as the Sad Hungarian.
I have been watching OKC play today and Vargas is 2-5 with a 3 run HR and a walk.
DeLuca is 2-5 with a double.
Bush is not in the lineup and the Dodgers just won 8-5.
Jimmy Nelson was the winner as he struck out 2 in his only inning.
One item regarding the discussion about Ohtani yesterday.
There is a misconception that any individual MLB team receives revenue for international TV rights. Those tv rights (and rights to merchandise) are owned by an MLB subsidiary. All international revenue goes into the general fund and is evenly distributed among all teams. The only benefit the Angels received from games televised in Japan was from in stadium advertising. All of Ohtani’s games were broadcast in Japan. So the Angels did get some Japanese companies to pay for in stadium brand presence that is visible during the broadcast. But again, that likely brought in a few extra million at the most. The company that owns the rights to MLB games in Japan gets to keep the revenue for their own advertising sales for their broadcasts. MLB gets the licensing fee from the company. What revenue the team gets is limited to their own local market only.
As others pointed out, I’m sure the Dodgers are aware of and have estimated whatever additional revenue they’d expect from having Ohtani on the roster. But given the potential for Ohtani to receive 10 year $400m+ offers I don’t think that additional revenue will play much of a factor in their calculus. The risk reward dynamic of any potential contract of that length and size dwarfs any extra sponsorship revenue. I’m sure the Dodgers will make an offer. But I’m also sure it will be an “AF” type offer. Shorter with a higher AAV and maybe an opt out. Unless he is just dead set on becoming a Dodger I don’t see him taking anything short of a 10 year deal. Which means I don’t see him being a Dodger.
The Dodgers value flexibility. Boat anchor contracts are the antithesis.
Good analysis Jayne, and I agree that we’re unlikely to see Ohtani in Dodger Blue. Maybe AF should offer him a one year, 75 mil contract with an opt out after the All Star Game. That would make him sit up and take notice.
I know Farhan will be waiving big money at him but the poor Giants are having a hell of a time getting anyone important to play for them. I see him winding up in Seattle. He loves the city, they’re going to be competitive for the foreseeable future, and there’s the Ichiro history there.
100% agree!
Me too. Ohtani is perfect for Seattle.
And not just Ichiro has had success and a history there. It’s something in the coffee.
I just cannot see them doing much more than a short-term deal period. It would be competitive, but his real value, although he is a very good hitter, is as a two-way player.
David Vassegh
@THEREAL_DV
Clayton Kershaw’s next start will be Saturday at Dodger Stadium. #Dodgers #Giants
David Vassegh
@THEREAL_DV
Clayton Kershaw’s next start will be Saturday at Dodger Stadium. #Dodgers #Giants
Google news had a story today that Roberts has decided the game 1 & 2 pitchers will be some combination of Kershaw and Miller. Renfroe released by the Reds. QO this winter will be around 20.5 million. Luke Raley to have an MRI. He is suffering numbness in his arm. Brandon Crawford to the IL, DeJong released.
10:10 PM ET
Giants (76-76)
Dodgers (93-58)
SP Kyle Harrison L
1-1 5.18 ERA
SP Emmet. Sheehan R
3-1 5.44 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
DH J. Martinez R
3B Max Muncy L
2B Amed Rosario R
LF Chris Taylor R
CF James Outman L
SS E. Hernandez R
66° Wind 9 mph Out
DODGER PRESS RELEASE
DODGERS NAME MICHAEL BUSCH AND KYLE HURT BRANCH RICKEY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE YEAR
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers named infielder Michael Busch as the 2023 Branch Rickey Minor League Player of the Year and right-handed pitcher Kyle Hurt as the 2023 Branch Rickey Minor League Pitcher of the Year.
Busch, 25, spent most of the season with Triple-A Oklahoma City, batting .322 (124-for-385) with 26 doubles, four triples, 26 homers and 89 RBI in 96 games for the Dodgers. He made his Major League debut on April 25 at Pittsburgh, going 1-for-3, recording his first Major League hit off Johan Oviedo. He made 27 appearances for the Major League team, recording 12 hits, including two homers and seven RBI. The former first round selection out of the University of North Carolina made his mark last season between Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City, slugging 32 homers and amassing 108 RBI in 142 minor league contests. In 355 minor league games with the Dodgers’ organization, he has hit .282 (387-for-1370) with 91 doubles, 78 homers and 266 RBI.
Hurt, 25, made his Major League debut on September 12, retiring all six batters he faced against the Padres as well as striking out the side in the ninth inning. The right-hander began the season with Double-A Tulsa, going 2-3 with a 4.15 ERA (30 ER/65.0 IP) and 110 strikeouts before getting promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City on August 2. In seven games (one start) for Oklahoma City, he posted a 2-1 record with a 3.33 ERA (10 ER/27.0 IP) and striking out 42 against 11 walks. On the season, he has fanned a minor league best 152 batters in 92 innings while sporting a .205 batting average against. The No. 12 prospect in the Dodgers’ organization according to MLB.com, was acquired from the Marlins on February 12, 2021 along with left-handed pitcher Alex Vesia in exchange for right-hander Dylan Floro. In three minor league seasons, he is a combined 11-13 with a 4.63 ERA with 297 strikeouts in 184.2 innings. The Southern California native was originally drafted by the Marlins in the fifth round of the 2020 First Year Player Draft out of USC.
Busch and Hurt will both be presented with their respective awards and honored in a pregame ceremony at Dodger Stadium on Friday, Sept. 22 prior to the Dodgers’ game vs. San Francisco.
Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan–all three rookies should play a significant role in the postseason with this patchwork rotation.
The “youth movement” was supposed to feature two hitters, but one fizzled. As for young arms, we were expecting Pepiot, and probably Miller–but Sheehan not at all. Having him piggyback Kershaw (um, if Kershaw is ready) could work.
I like the idea of the Dodgers as underdogs. Looking back, it amazes me that a such a flawed team last year could win 111 games. That was flukey. This team is more solid, and several players seem to be peaking at the right time.
Not that it’s important, but I expect that Acuna’s monster year will give him the MVP over Mookie. It would be nice, however, if Mookie can reach 40 HRs, and Freddie reach 60 doubles.
Will any of us care about that stuff if the Dodgers get to the WS?
Don’t look now, but keep your eyes on the San Diego Padres climbing up to get into the playoffs again this year. They have won 7 in a row against bad teams and all they have left are bad teams. They could run the table.
If they get in, with their decent pitching and several superstars, they could duplicate what they did last year- take us out. I sure hope they don’t get in.
They are DONE. And I aint scared of them.