Yesterday, Dave wrote this:
“Last year you posted your stats predictions for the season. As it turned out they were pretty accurate. So looking forward to that again. But I think we need to wait until end of Spring training for that.”
So, I am going to do it a little differently this year. I am going to it now, and I might revise my predictions at the end of Spring Training:
C – Will Smith – .275 BA; 30 HR, 30 DBL – Time to take the mantle as the best catcher in baseball
1B – Freddie Freeman – .330 BA; 30 HR, 120 RBI – He has hit over 30 three times. He smells an MVP
2B – Miguel Vargas – .290; 20 HR; 20 SB – ROY?
SS – Gavin Lux – .295; 18 HR; 20 SB – I am assuming he can play SS, but I remain unconvinced!
3B – Max Muncy – .265; 35 HR – Back with a vengeance.
DH – JD Martinez – .320; 35 HR; 45 DBL – He is motivated and has a chip on his shoulder and is witch his buds!
LF – David Peralta – .275; 23 HR – Plays against RHP Only
CF – James Outman – .235; 20 HR – If he can do that, he will be OK. I am rooting for him, because I don’t think Thompson can cut it.
RF – Mookie Betts – .295; 30 HR; 40 DBL; 20 SB – Seeking another MVP
UT – Chris Taylor – .270; 18 HR; 30 DBL; 20 SB – Nice comeback by Peralta’s platoon partner
The question remains, can Lux play SS? An unnamed GM said this of the Dodgers, “They have a SS who can’t throw.” If Gavin can’t stay at SS, it messes everything up. I also did not include Jason Heyward. I have to see what he does. This team could be an offensive juggernaut – even better than last year. The Dodgers could have three players in the Top 10 in MVP Voting: Martinez, Betts, and Freeman.
Some will say that I have “Blue-Colored Glasses,” but most players have had multiple seasons at what I have predicted. The bigger bases, the pitch clock, and the demise of the shift all will contribute to their seasons—additionally, six position players, including Mookie, Max. CT3, Lux, and two others worked with Driveline Baseball over the winter. However, nothing ever goes according to plan… so we wait…
If those numbers are close, we win 117 games.
A lot could go wrong.
I will re-visit these stats at the end of the Spring and post my final answer! 😉
Forward predictions. Very positive. I think you’ll be close on none and way off on a quite a few.
Let’s hear the pitching predictions.
The bases won’t change much and the shift will help every left handed hitter in the league.
Driveline is overrated. Or is it talent is overrated? I’ve read both. Anyway I don’t think one day in Seattle will help anybody. Those who practice the most will see results. Will that be the Dodgers? I don’t know. The Padres are hungry. I heard Tatis is running sprints dragging his Porsche behind him, Soto is swinging a 5 pound bat 300 times a day and Machado is counting his money which is exhausting. He’s lost weight, added 10 pounds of muscle, mostly in his head and is preparing to opt out by hitting like Mark has projected Martinez to hit. If he does he’ll make $40 million in Gnu Yourk.
Going to be a fun Spring.
Wow! .330 for Freddie. .320 for JDM! I’ll take the under on those two. I think Lux hits 25-30 bombs if he’s hitting second. So no one has a bad season? I don’t even think Tommy could be this optimistic! But hey I’ll be rootin for it! Can you post the results from last year’s predictions? This is fun.
Hope springs eternal. That’s a whole lotta power. Yes, blue-collared glasses,
These performances would put Mookie, Freddie and JDM in the mix for MVP. But they’d split the vote, allowing Machado to prevail.
FWIW, the mlb.com projections for BA league leaders have only a few players hitting over .300. Made no sense to me because the new rules should boost offense.
Last season a whole lot went wrong and the team played lousy starting. Of coarse things had to go worse for the competition for that end result. And the season before Dodgers won 106 games but not the division. I believe there’s a strong chance the Dodgers are tighter team this coming season and will show how important it is to build players rather than just buying them but those bought players can knock down a few in our win outcome. I’m happy I’m not a stats man and just want my Dodgers playing tight and situational and throw in a little luck is always cool.
Dodgers top 10 (and then some) on today’s Baseball America podcast
LOL these projections are down right hilarious.
I believe you said the exact same thing last year.
Now is not the time to be conservative. Hope is eternal. Mark said he would perhaps temper his projections at the end of Spring Training. Outman is going to hit 35 HR and bat .300. That was more funner.
Even IF, “a lot goes wrong” this team may well be a very exciting offensive club to watch.
Wow, I love optimism and most agree averages should go up around 10 with new rules. Even if go under your projected averages by 10 would have a really great team. Lux is key if plays all star caliber which I believe he can. Been playing short his whole life. He’s quick with soft hands and deep throws won’t come into play much with new rules. Of course as always comes down to pitching. Personally feeling pretty good there barring multiple serious injuries. Sure am ready to get this going. Think it’s going to be a magical year
This pitch clock thing is gonna be strange. What happens when down a run in ninth. two out with runners on second and third and hitter gets called out strike three for stepping out of box cause bug got in his way. Can’t seem to find nowhere on where the clocks will be placed and how many there will be
I think those projections are very lofty. I think maybe two Dodgers will club 30 homers this season, and none of them are named Smith.
I think overall total homeruns will decline thru out MLB and batting averages and OBP will go up as a direct result of the new rules.
So, your projections are that every Dodger in the lineup has a career year +10%.
Ok. Great! I’m in. Nothing like being an optimist.
I’m getting tired of the offseason.
The hot stove isn’t keeping America warm anymore. Play ball.
So once again…. even in a round of highly optimistic projections…. Mark downgrades Mookie from 35 HRs to 30.
And that’s from Mookie with more muscle! But the BA is up, and that would be good.
While I’m fond of the old-school counting stats, but I think OPS is a better measure than than. This especially applies to a guy like Muncy, who pile up both HRs and walks. With JDM possibly protecting him, and with the shift banned, Max’s numbers could exceed anything he’s done in the past.
On the other hand, with JDM as DH, Will Smith won’t get as many ABs. And Smith was a great part-time DH, with an OPS over 1.000. When Barnes catches, Smith will be a weapon as a pinch hitter.
Whatever happens–and that could include a JHey renaissance!–this should be a formidable lineup. Maybe Trea won’t be missed if Lux turns in a Trea Lite performance.
I share Mark’s optimism, especially when I remember the 2022 offense had so many key players slumping–Belli, Taylor, Max, JT, Gallo, Vargas were all frustrating– and yet led the majors in run differential en route to 111 wins.
My stats show the optimism that I have.
But, that is not my FINAL ANSWER!
I will revise them to my final answer at the end of Spring Training.
Someone asked to see what I had predicted last season. This was right after the season started:
By June, the lineup will look like this:
The Dodger’s offense will not be what they projected, but it will be solid top-to-bottom and along with their deep, deep, pitching, they will win over 100 games again, beating the Giants by 9 games and the Padres by 13 games. The Dodgers Rotation will win 79 games, led by Clayton Kershaw with 17. The Dodgers will not have a Cy Young Finalist in the Top 10. Craig Kimbrel will have his arm fall off, and someone will need to step up.
I missed a few, but was pretty close overall.
Well, Kimbrel sucked so you nailed that one!
Well we got hit with a snowstorm today. It just stopped a little while ago. I suck at predictions. But I think Smith does a little better than last year and finishes with a .265/28/81 line. Freddie will hit close to the .324 he hit last year. His power numbers will climb by maybe 4 HR’s, He will drive in more than 100 this year. Taylor, .245/15/58. Peralta, .240/16/54, Barnes .225/6/25 Betts .310/33/79, Muncy .238/31/90, Vargas .256/12/54. Thompson .237/23/60, Martinez .289/36/102, Lux .286/14/65, Heyward .276/18/70, Rojas .260/6/40 Busch, Outman, both end up at AAA and Busch is included in a trade at the deadline for a starting pitcher. Kersh spends 5 weeks on the IL. Gonsolin goes down in July with serious arm trouble. May rebounds and wins 14. Urias has an outstanding season and wins the Cy Young finally and leaves with a huge contract from the Padres. Phillips establishes himself as the closer. Stone comes up and wins 7 games as a spot starter. Miller sees time out of the pen. The win 91 games and are a wild card team. They win the wild card round and lose the NLDS to the Cardinals.
Huh? Wild card post? Aw come on man! Dodgers have NO big brothers, especially in the NL west….none! The 23 Dodgers = 23 world Series champions. It’s how it feels to me. They desire the flavor of an ending victory to clear out the taste of 2022’s season end. As they say….. “Tomorrow is another day” or maybe that was just Earnest T Worrell who said that.
I made a prediction 2 years ago that Kody Hoese would be an All Star.
I have a feeling I was a tad off (so far)
I predicted that he would be good. I guess there is still time, but….
I seem to recall some injury issues with Kody Hoese. Obviously he has fallen off the prospect rankings.
Speaking of those rankings… geez, they are often just stoopid.
The latest example comes from FanGraphs, which ranked Mike Busch as the Dodgers #3 prospect… just ahead of Miguel Vargas!
And as always, Busch is ranked above Outman
Think about this: Vargas is already topping the depth chart at 2B, and Outman has a real shot in the outfield–while Busch is a longshot. If Busch had Outman’s defense he’d be in the mix–but he doesn’t. (Prospect rankings seem to disregard defense; FanGraphs suggests Busch is DH material, which I think is unfair to him. But clearly Outman’s defense is held in high regard.)
We Dodger fans understand that Busch is not on the shortlist for Opening Day. It would probably take injuries to two key players for Busch to have a chance.
Why is Busch always ranked as a hotter prospect than Outman? I have theories. My guess is the rankers mostly take their cues from each other. As a first-round draft pick, shortly after Hoese,, Busch arrived with expectations–while Outman, a 7th-rounder, has had to work his way onto the prospect radar. Still, you might think that by now rankers would give Outman his due, given his fast rise from Tulsa to OKC to the majors in 2022.
Now, rankers tend to place Pages ahead of Outman too–but that’s defensible since Pages is about 3-4 years younger. Pages is a hot prospect at 21–and Outman at 21 was pretty much unknown. But hey, progress is not linear.
It annoys some of us here, of course, that Mark ranks Outman as Dodgers’ the 4th best OF prospect, behind DeLuca, Pages and Ramos (though I’m not sure of the order.)
The good news is that, Having disabused himself of the notion that Lux is the centerfielder of the future, our chief scout is starting to see what the Dodger brass obviously see: Outman is actually pretty damn good.
A few years from now, perhaps sooner, we may all be singing the praises of Busch. He does have a pretty swinging and he might well have a terrific career. I’m just saying that, right now, it no sense whatsoever that the 25-year-old Busch is perceived as a better prospect than the 25-year-old Outman. It’s just nuts.
My favorite rankings are the ones that don’t just regurgitate the usual suspects. It was surprising when like the rankers who don’t just list the usual suspects. One recently cited River Ryan, with rising velocity, as hot pitching prospect. Another mentioned a 19-year-old outfielder putting up absurd numbers in the deep minors. It’s fun to see when players get spotted on the prospect radar.
Dodgers Nation reported this nugget about Gavin Lux’s visit to Driveline. Seems that his added muscle and improved mechanics may have had quite an impact:
“Lux adding bat speed is notable. In the limited data we have available, Lux averaged 79.6 MPH on his bat speed in 2022. Adding 6 MPH would put him at 85.6. So what does that mean from a practical standpoint?
“According to MLB, the average bat speed on singles last year was 79.5 MPH; doubles and triples averaged 82.8 MPH; and home runs averaged 85.5 MPH. So, essentially, Lux’s bat speed moved from singles territory to home run territory.
“Now, that doesn’t mean all of his singles will turn into home runs. Those are averages, and launch angle and quality of contact still matter. But increased bat speed will turn some fly outs into home runs and some singles into doubles and some groundouts into singles. It’s also important to remember there’s a difference between doing it in a lab and doing it in a game, but for now, the results seem quite promising.
“We didn’t get numbers on bat speed for Muncy, Taylor, or Betts, but increasing that bat speed was the goal for all of them in going to Driveline. We’re only three days away from the first spring game, when we might start to see whether it’s going to pay dividends.”
Good Stuff! Thanks.
My bat speed can be determined by watching a snail cross your porch.
Mark
I know you’re gonna do your predictions again but I think you’re too optimistic on a lot.
Smith .270 and 28 HR
Freeman .315 and 26 HR
Vargas .265 – .270 and 11 HR
Lux .285 and 13 HR
Muncy .250 and 30 HR
Martinez .270 and 21 HR
Peralta .255 and 10 HR he’s going to be platooning against RHP. More AB than he would get against LHP.
Outman .245 – .250 and 21 HR If he plays against both RHP and LHP. If not .255 and 18 HR
Betts .285 and 28 HR
Taylor .265 and 12 HR He’s going to be platooning against LHP so he won’t be getting as much at bats than he would against RHP. But because he’s a utility guy he will get some AB against RHP but not much.
Because of the platooning of Peralta and Taylor I got confused. So I’m switching the batting averages.
Peralta .265 and 10 HR
Taylor .255 and 12 HR
I think I was a little generous with A LOT of them.
Smith 27 HR = 1 less
Freeman 25 HR = 1 less
Vargas 10 HR = 1 less
Lux 10 HR = 3 less
Muncy 28 HR = 2 less
Martinez 19 HR = 2 less
Peralta 10 HR = Same
Outman 20 HR or 17 HR = 1 less
Betts 28 HR = Same
Taylor 12 HR = Same
= 11 less HR total.
Prediction: Muncy with the most HR, Freeman the best BA, Lux the most steals & Vargas ROY.
And JHey as Comeback Player of the Year!
Five guys hitting 30 or more homers and five others hitting 20 be the miracle team of all time. Sure be sweet but ain’t happening
Cactus League opener
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced Wednesday that right-hander Grove will start the team’s Cactus League opener on Saturday against the Brewers. Non-roster invitees Matt Andriese and Bryan Hudson are also expected to pitch an inning in the game.
The sense of anticipation is pretty fun.
Rather than guesstimate, here’s some 2022 data and observations regarding possible lineups…
Betts — Delivered .873 OPS, with a team-leading 35 HRs … but a somewhat disappointing .340 OBP. Tied with Freeman for league lead in runs scored at 117–though Mookied played in 17 fewer games. He has added strength; is 40 HRs possible? Stole 13 bases, which could tick upward under new rules.
Freeman– Dodgers’ best hitter with a .918 OPS, .325 BA. and .407 OBP–all ranking among league leaders. He tied with Trea for league lead in hits at 199, of which 47 were doubles and 21 were HRs. He’s a big dude, but four teammates seem likely to hit more HRs. Good baserunner too; had 12 steals ’22.
Smith– Trea Turner fans might be surprised to learn that Smith’s OPS of .808 was .001 lower than Trea’s, and they both had OBPs of .343. Smith had 24 HRs in 502 ABs. But with JDM at DH, Smith is unlikely to get as many ABs this year. (Barnes will bat 8th or 9th when Smith sit.) Smith is pretty fast too, and not just “for a catcher.”
Muncy– Primed for a big bounce-back after hitting just .195 BA with 21 HRs in 464 ABs, a number depressed by his team-leading 90 walks. (Freeman was second with 84.) Despite the ugly batting average, the walks and power helped Max get to a .713 OPS, about the league average. Roberts stuck with him despite a dreadful first half and it paid off. After the all-star break, Max produced a .791 OPS (better than Smith and Turner!) and a .340 OBP.
Martinez– He’s coming off a not-bad, not-great season (for him) with a .789 OPS, .274 BA and .341 OPS. His power numbers were down–only 16 HRs from a guy who once hit 4 in a single game at Dodger Stadium. Piled up 145 strikeouts. Reuniting with Von Scoyoc and Mookie should help. If he doesn’t fully deliver the goods, Smith and others can help with DH duties.
OK, that’s enough for now.
There’s plenty of reason to think that Lux’s offense will improve with the extra muscle, especially is he is comfortable and competent at SS. We expect Peralta to be OK despite his age, and we hope that Taylor has big bounceback after his stinky ’22. Barnes will be Barnes, and Rojas will be Rojas–but I think it’s hard to predict with confidence what Vargas, Trayce, Outman and Heyward will deliver.
Yeah, Vargas could be ROY. We’re rooting for him and Outman and Busch too.
But a lot of top prospects flamed out in The Show, while unheralded grinders like Muncy and Justin Turner and others turned themselves into stars.
You may not know, but JDM was hurt most of the year and his injuries robbed his power. He played through i but is fine now.