Pinkie Problems
The first casualty of Spring Training occurred a few days ago when Miguel Vargas took a bad hop to his right pinky finger, which caused a hairline fracture. Since he is a RH hitter, his right hand is not his bottom hand, and he would likely play if it were the playoffs or an important game, but he will likely miss a couple of weeks. He thinks he can play this weekend, but I think the medical staff will keep him out longer.
The Dodgers are not trading for a second baseman as there is no shortage of options at 2B, including Mike Busch, Miguel Rojas, Chris Taylor, Jorbit Vivas, Yonny Hernandez, Eddys Leonard, Devin Mann, and others. Busch is also playing LF, as is Vargas, during team scrimmages. Vargas can still work out and do all the running, weight, and cardio work he can stand. He is undoubtedly in great shape after staying in LA for a substantial part of the offseason. I believe he will be the Opening Day 2B.
Jason Heyward’s Swing Makeover
When the Dodgers signed Jason Heyward, they made it perfectly clear to him that his swing needed a major overhaul. There were some things that weren’t working for him and had prevented him from producing at a high clip for a few seasons. The biggest thing was his stance and the use of his hands, which were too close to his body, preventing him from catching up to fastballs and severely limiting his power. Robert Van Scoyoc and Aaron Bates, along with JDM and Freddie Freeman, have worked with him to overhaul his swing.
Old habits are hard to break, and helping overhaul swings does not always work. If it did, Cody Bellinger would still be a Dodger and an All-Star. Still, there is hope… a lot of it, as his swing looks dramatically different today than it did a year ago. I think it’s possible that if Heyward’s Swing Makeover works, we could see this alignment in the Outfield at times… especially against RHP.
LF – David Peralta CF – Mookie Betts RF- Jason Heyward
Against LHP, it could be CT3 in CF, Betts in RF, and the Flavor of the Day in LF, which will include JDM. I think he will see 20 or 30 games in LF.
I am going to warn the James Outman fans not to get their hopes up too high. Those 13 ABs he got last year are so small a sampling that they mean nothing. If that hadn’t happened, would you still be high on him? I do not think so. I hope he does well, but I still say he profiles as a 4th or 5th outfielder.
A lot hinges upon Peralta and Heyward. It will not surprise me in the least if Outman and Thompson do not make the team. I also think that Zimmer and Dugger are extremely unlikely to break with the team. They are insurance.
Darkhorse to Watch: Yusniel Diaz – maybe he is ready. It’s likely wishful thinking… but stranger things have happened. It would be cool.
Opening Day Starter: Julio Urias or Clayton Kershaw? Clayton is still a TOP Pitcher and a sentimental choice, but Julio would probably love it if he were given the ball. It might garner a little goodwill. BTW, why would he ever sign an extension without going into free agency? There is no reason!
The Dodgers Like Jake Reed: They keep picking him up and are teaching him a new splitter/sink combination pitch that should help him be more effective against LHP. Stay tuned!
Breakout Player: Will Smith will play a little less and hit more this season. I think he will hit .285 and hit 30 HR. He is ready to take over as the best catcher in baseball. We might be able to put Miguel Vargas in this category too. A .290 BA and 20 HR should win him the ROY!
Some people think this season is different in that there is uncertainty about many positions, but it is really only two outfield positions that are up in the air. The Dodgers will try and fill them from within, but if they don’t, then there will be trade(s) at the deadline. Also, don’t discount Andy Pages – he learned a lot in the AFL, and since progress is not linear, he could burst on the scene a year early.
Pages has supposedly come into camp 25 pounds lighter than last year. Said he felt sluggish at times during the past season.
I would say losing that much weight during an off season shows real commitment. Question is will it take away some of his power. He’ll be another interesting one to watch this spring.
Well I guess they could have Taylor play second base until Vargas is healthy since they say a couple of weeks out. And Rojas to. At least it’s a couple of weeks out not a long time. With Taylor playing second then taht opens up the roster to play for outfielder of Peralta Outman Betts Thompson and Heyward not that bad for spring training or regular season. But then when Vargas gets healthy one will have to go down to OKC. Then Taylor would move to platoon with Peralta in LF.
No chance, I mean no chance Martinez plays a single inning in the outfield. All of his appearances last season were as the DH. He hasn’t played more than a handful of games in the outfield in 4 years. In 21 he only played 13 out there. I think his glove is in cold storage.
I have heard from people in AZ that the Dodgers and JDM both want him to play in the field occasionally. He is taking fly balls in LF, but we will see what happens.
I just laugh out loud with all the reactions yesterday. Sometimes it seems you are a bunch reddit kids posting in here. Haven’t you endure all the Clayton’s ocurences during spring training all these years? Today is Feb 21 and we are beginning spring training. Vargas has been training all winter long in California and Florida. He declined to play for Cuba in the World Classic. He has been even mentor by Placido Polanco on 2nd base play. He miss 2, 3 weeks, so what? He will be fine.
Yep they panic easily, then want to trade all of the prospects for replacements.
Mark
Everyone knows Outman’s sample in MLB last year is tiny. And yes I would still be high on him if he wasn’t promoted last year, remember me calling for him to be promoted almost all of last year. You are ignoring his stats in AA and AAA while touting Vargas who didn’t have as good of stats (but came close) as Outman in AA and AAA. And there you go again about Vargas .290 BA/20HR and rookie of the year. I’ll see your bluff and raise you a trillion dollars or whatever comes after a trillion dollars it ain’t happening. Yes I’ve heard you say at least Vargas has been consistent since A ball, to that I say so what, because it’s all about the upper minors (and Vargas did good in the upper minors too). Yes Vargas is younger and I will give you that. I’m not saying Outman will have a better career than Vargas, no one ever knows that for sure, even the so called experts get it wrong. I’m just reacting to your dismissal of Outman and touting of Vargas. And I think you listen to the so called experts too much. Don’t take them as gospel is all I’m saying.
No way Martinez plays outfield.
I really don’t think there are 2 outfield spots up for grabs. I think there is only 1 spot out of 13 that’s up for grabs. That’s just me though. By the way Heyward doesn’t fit on the team. See the next paragraph below.
Believe it or not I kinda agree about Pages, not because I think he’s overall ready, but because I see a need for someone that hits LHP good and it needs to be an outfielder and that describes Pages. Deluca too. And by the way you talked about Outman’s small sample in MLB last year, but you are touting Pages small sample in the AFL. An example of picking and choosing among the same thing. At least I gave credit to Vargas for his stats in AA and AAA while I was talking about the same thing about Outman.
Against RHP it’s going to be Betts, Outman, Peralta in the outfield, bank on it. Against LHP Betts, Taylor, ?. Maybe Outman depending. I think Pages and Deluca are in the mix as of right now. But I wouldn’t be surprised if AF gets a guy that can hit LHP good and sucks against RHP for cheap.
Yusniel Diaz? Who? You mean the guy that was stuck in AA for 4 years and hit .278/.366/.457/.823. That’s average for the minors. And then 2 years in AAA hitting .210/.295/.313/.608. That absolutely sucks. Oh yeah did I mention that absolutely sucks. Another one of your fantasy predictions, no offense but come on.
Jake Reed? Yeah whatever. Not necessarily you, but the Dodgers that are apparently high on him.
I absolutely agree about Smith.
Sorry for being blunt, but a few of those things are just not happening.
According to Freddie Freeman, Heyward has been working really hard to re-tool his swing. It was one of the things the Dodgers talked to him about. Reports are that he has changed his stance and the position of his arms. I would not write him off before you even see him play some games. Motivation can be a huge factor and he is motivated to be a much better player.
Eric,
Boy, whenever I say what I believe about Outman, I really hit a nerve with you. Is he your brother? I even said I hoped I was wrong. Wow! For some reason, your head wants to explode! Diaz is a darkhorse… someone that no one thinks would make it. He is working with RVS and Company on his swing as well. We saw what he did in AAA, and it was not good, but he is a professional baseball player, and I am not, and neither are you, so we must triple suck!
… and if you think I listen to the experts too much, you really aren’t paying attention.
Mark
I appologize for being blunt in my first post. But I just can’t understand your dismissal of Outman and touting of Vargas. I already explained the stats, so it seems that you’re basing everything on the so called experts and yourself watching their minor league games and dismissing the stats. If so that’s fine, you have your way and I have my way.
Also I watched Outman in spring training (not that it means a lot) I think in 2021 and I liked what I saw.
So it’s just the dismissal vs touting with similar stats in the upper minors that I don’t get.
Fully agree re Outman, Eric.
First of all, let’s recall that Outman’s promotion last season wasn’t random. AF didn’t draw his name from a hat. Mark likes to say that Outman was “lucky,” but of course he reached the majors because of merit.
The quality of his play–offense and defense–is why he’s a much better candidate to make the OD roster than Busch, Pages, DeLuca or Ramos, four OF prospects that Mark holds in higher esteem.
Outman’s produced a higher OPS than Vargas or Busch in 2022. His defense won continuous praise while theirs rarely did. Outman’s performance has been trending upward since he was signed as 7th rounder out of Sacramento State.
Unlike Busch, Hoese and the now retired Jeren Kendall, Outman was not a first-rounder out of strong program, but an unpolished athlete with a “caveman swing.” He’s put in the work and won over coaches to get to where he is.
But the guy who wanted Lux to be moved to centerfield is not impressed.
Anyway, you’d think that Dodger brass might be doing more to create opportunities for young talent.
If Heyward is really fixed, great. And let’s hope Peralta’s fade last season is temporary–and that Trayce doesn’t turns into a pumpkin. (Since the Cubs are still paying Heyward’s salary, we might compare his performance to Belli’s.)
Let’s say that Heyward, Peralta and Trayce all perform at league-average levels….and wind up blocking young talent like Outman and Busch, still stuck in OKC. Wouldn’t it make more sense to find out what the young guys are capable of if given the chance?
If the much-hyped Vargas is the only prospect to make the OD roster, the 2023 Dodgers will be older than the 2022 edition.
Without Outman or Busch, the OF would be all thirty-somethings.
Can you people just wait to see at least 5 or 6 spring training games so your opinions have a little more weight?
Ardaya article this morning talks about Betts going back to second for “the last four years” of his career. He’s taking grounders out there now. Vargas at second base can’t possibly be a permanent move for him, right? Would Betts at second base be the move to make if Vargas isn’t ready?
Mark,
Last year you posted your stats predictions for the season. As it turned out they were pretty accurate. So looking forward to that again. But I think we need to wait until end of Spring training for that.
So looking forward to see which young guns step up. Lux at ss, Vargas at 2nd, Outman in cf, Busch hitting, Pages new body. On the mound, is May an ace, Pepiot(2nd coming of Gonsolin- he will trust his stuff) and Miller and Stone. And Graterol in the pen ( can he develop a killer slurve). Can’t remember being this excited for a spring training! Oh and Diaz! Now that would be an all time call!
Why would Betts play CF and Heyward RF. Isn’t Heyward a good defensive centerfielder?
And I agree there is no need to ever out JDM in the outfield. Taking balls there in ST is no indicator.
Heyward will make the team out if spring training because Roberts likes veterans remember Kemp when he came back and lit it up and made the all-star team. Thompson will be sent down to OKC or traded just in case there’s an injury. That leaves Outman Betts Heyward Perlata making the team Taylor considered utility of/inf Barnes Rojas martiniz, Muncy, Lux, Freeman Smith, Hernandez out of spring training until Vargas is better. 13 players and 12 pitchers right.
13 position players and 13 pitchers. 26 man roster.
When the Dodgers want to use Smith at DH, Martinez either sits or plays some innings in LF.
Heyward is a RFer and while Betts is as well, Betts should be a better CFer so if both are playing…
Outman could own CF for years while Heyward would be a 1 year rental. It would be best if Outman wins the job.
Did you see Outman’s last six AB’s in his brief sip of coffee in the show last year I did
I think I whiffed on that. What did I miss?
I think the Dodgers are doing a disservice by not giving Thompson a shot he deserves it, he played really good last year, hell if they can give Belli so many chances then Thompson deserves a chance I thinking signing some of these has been players is going to bight them in the bum, Heyward hasn’t been all that good since what 2016, Peralta maybe and Jd is just a dog with out much bite anymore , should of kept JT
JDM has no bite? I predict he will hit 35 HR, 45 doubles, and hit .320!
Thompson struck out 42% of the time last year. He will be given a chance, but as much as I like the story, hitting .268 last year was pure blind luck! He has never done anything close before this last season. It’s a feel-good story, but I can’t see any way he duplicates it…. and I hope I am wrong.
He struck out six straight times and looked way overmatched doing it. All though I hope like crazy he ends up a great player I have doubts being I can’t erase those memories away. There are times I really love being proved wrong
Outman didn’t strike out 6 straight times in his last 2 games. He did strike out 6 times in two games, but was 1 for 7 with a walk in between the Ks.
I don’t know if he’s ready. He does have a lot of swing and miss. But if he isn’t in the plans, they should trade him or let him go, like they did Rios. Someone will pick him up.
Then he had TWO cycles within a week at OKC! Give the kid a chance!
Outman has value and could win the CF job. I hope he does. It’s the best scenario for the Dodgers.
Small sample size, anyone?
Outman struck out a lot–and he hammered the ball a lot. For the entire 2022 season,
the stats show that he outhit both Vargas and Busch in terms of OPS–all while delivering higher-quality D.
Is anybody here impressed by what Vargas showed in majors last year? He got more than 3X the number of ABs as Outman. A small sample–but much bigger than Outman’s! Talk about overmatched. He proved he simply wasn’t ready for prime time. Something I noticed: Both Vargas and Outman took two walks, although Vargas had many more chances to get on base. . (I assume he was pressing and wanted to show his vaunted bat-to-ball skills. But gee, when Roberts needed a righty bat to pinch hit for Belli in the playoffs, he turned to Barnes, not the overmatched rookie.)
We also just learned that Peralta recently had back surgery. He should be fine, but he is 35 years old and coming off surgery.
Outman and Busch are 10 years younger and have proved themselves in the minors.
“Is anybody here impressed by what Vargas showed in majors last year? He got more than 3X the number of ABs as Outman. A small sample–but much bigger than Outman’s! Talk about overmatched.”
Just about anyone who understands baseball and sees talent is impressed! Others? Not so much. All I can say is “Watch and Learn.”
“Watch and learn” says the guy whose baseball acumen and mindreading skills convinced him that AF didn’t really believe Lux could play SS… so why not move him to centerfield?
“Watch and learn” declares the oracle who has complained about Mookie’s performance–he’s not as good as Trout!– during seasons in which Mookie winds up in the top 5 for MVP votes….
I am not always right. In baseball, if you are right 60% of the time, you are top tier!
The Lux move is not over. I am not alone in thinking he cannot play SS. One GM said, “They have a guy at SS who can’t throw.
Mookie has not lived up to the hype, but he is a damn good player. However, does a SUPERSTAR hit .269 in the regular season and .143 in the Playoffs?
A big part of the reason they brought JDM in was to help resurrect Mookie!
Relax my children. All will be answered in due time. They have been in camp less than a week and everyone is jumping to conclusions and assumptions and not one game has been played! Betts has never played a game at third in his life. He feels comfortable enough to play second, but third? Nope, don’t see that happening. Yonny Hernandez is going to get some playing time with Vargas out. He can play 2nd, 3rd and SS. Outman is going to get his chances, at this point nothing is etched in stone, not the batting order, pitching rotation or the order in which pitchers will come out of the pen. Busch also will get some opps with Vargas sidelined.
“Yonny Hernandez is going to get some playing time with Vargas out. He can play 2nd, 3rd and SS.”
Not to be an ass, but why would .262/.388/.324/.712 in the minors and .198/.293/.228/.521 in MLB (small sample though) get some playing time? Rojas already plays those positions and as you mentioned, Busch is there for 2B insurance. Or do you mean spring training playing time? If so, then yes everyone gets playing time in spring training.
Simple Eric. He is on the 40 man roster, and in spring training, all those guys are going to see time on the field, just how much remains to be seen. Yes, I meant time on the field in spring. I don’t believe for one moment that he has a snowballs chance in hell of making the roster.
Perhaps nothing is etched in stone, but as I read the tea leaves (and mix the metaphors), I think these names are getting etched in drying cement.
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Rojas
David Peralta
Jason Hey—
The positive buzz around Heyward was pretty strong even before he started to show off the new swing. He could be the FA acquisition of season, especially since the Dodgers are just paying the minimum. If the swing is truly fixed, if Heyward really bounces back, he’d be a great candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.
Injuries will probably upset some expectations. We know most of the other position players who are certain to make the 26-man roster.
Not etched: Trayce, Outman, Busch, Yonny…
Hernandez Rojas Taylor Lux Leonard Betts Muncy Freeman Busch will all be playing infield spring traing with Vargas missing weeks so it’s a chance for those infielders to shine until Vargas gets healthy who knows how he will be Vargas might have to start in OKC when big league season starts. But these will be your infirders for sure. Right now if season started it probable be Muncy Lux Taylor Freeman Smiths starters, Rojas Hernandez bench. Leonard’s viva’s Busch are battling with Hernandez for that bench spot.
It’s a pinkie “fracture” – not a break!
Vargas will be back next week – if not sooner!
Vargas will not start in OKC unless he does not hit… and I do not see that happening.
Vargas told the trainers he could play this weekend, but they are not going to allow that,
You only need 3 fingers to play baseball. Yeah, suck it up and be back next week.
Since we’ve covered the position players so well, I’ve been wondering about how everyone sees the top pitching prospects. Who is major league ready now? What strengths and weaknesses do the various candidates have when compared to each other? Rather than selling the farm for Corbin Burnes, who can we groom for spring and summer? Or for the inevitable injuries that crop up in our (thin) starting rotation?
The pitching is so deep.
We know the expected rotation: Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, May, Syndergaard
The backup rotation (in possible order of appearance) could be:
Pepiot, Grove, Stone, Miller, Jackson, Nastrini… etc, etc…
I still think AF should have brought back Tyler Anderson, but apparently he wouldn’t commit to three years–and the Angels would. (But I think Thor could be an upgrade.)
As always, there’s a good chance an injury or two will force the issue. The front five looks good, but none are especially sturdy.
I have a column coming soon on the pitching – stay tuned.
Galvin Stone this kid just knows how to pitch. Definitely see him as a main stay in rotation, maybe this year. Miller got plus plus tools soon as learns to harness them future number one or one A. Haven’t seen much of Nastrini but hear good things. I’m probably only one that sees closer in Landon Knack if he can find discipline I hear he lacks. Our young pitching gonna be a big story this year and believe be a big part of our success. Love the grit that Outman plays with. The K’s worry me but have high hopes. Vargas is a can’t miss future all star in my book and can’t help but think there’s gonna be one youngster no one is really expecting to come up and contribute. Glad someone agrees with me on Thompson, Mark. I’ve heard a couple analysts say our pitching is thin, I sure don’t agree with that
I agree with all of that except Knack. He has 4 excellent pitchers. He can be a “horse” with better conditioning and not being lazy. I see #4 or #5 starter, but this is his make or break year!