Gavin Lux: Dodger Shortstop

Posted By on February 2, 2023

I am fully resigned to the fact that Gavin Lux is going into Spring Training as the starting SS. I did not believe that he could play SS at the MLB level, but I will have to defer to Andrew Friedman, who knows “a thing or two I don’t!” Lux has added 15 pounds of muscle which might bring his arm up to average. The first time he makes an error, I am not going to say a thing… maybe the 10th time, and if the YIPS come back, I will also have a thing or two to say, but I really hope he makes it as the Dodgers SS. Some people think I don’t like Gavin Lux because I have included him in proposed trades and did not believe he was a SS. I am a Gavin Lux fan, and if he can play SS, this solves a whole set of problems.

I think he profiles best as a leadoff hitter, but that would entail having Mookie hit #2 for the good of the team. I think Mookie sees himself as a leadoff guy, but at 30, he may have lost a half-step, and if he is willing to move to the #2 hole, it gives the Dodgers a perfect L-R Balance. Plus, if Gavin hits .300 with a .360 OB% (he might do better than that), Mookie will see a lot more fastballs. This is now my preferred lineup:

  1. Lux SS (L)
  2. Betts RF (R)
  3. Freeman 1B (L)+
  4. Martinez DH
  5. Muncy 3B (L)
  6. Smith C (R)
  7. Busch LF (L)
  8. Vargas 2B (R)
  9. Outman CF (L)

CT3 can sub for Busch or Outman. Rojas can sub for any infield spot, and Austin Barnes is the backup C. That leaves one spot for Thompson, Heyward, or whoever can earn that last spot. Three rookies batting 7-8-9 (when did that last happen?), and I will bet they will be better than what they had there last year. Now, the only question is the Defense. I am sure that Chris Woodward will be with the team every day early in the season, working with Lux and Vargas on their defense. Vargas and Lux will make some mistakes. That is a given, but if they can grow and keep on hitting, they should be fine. If Vargas plays 2B, he will be an All-Star. I am not worried about Max Muncy. He is seriously training and dieting this winter and will allegedly be very svelt this season. He is a gamer!

I will be happy if Miguel Vargas hits .270 with 15 -20 HR, but he could do much, much better than that! Mike Busch is a Max Muncy-type hitter. He has a great eye and will strike out a lot, but he is capable of hitting 30 HR from Jump Street. James Outman is a mystery to me. Hopefully, he can seize the day and win the CF job. However, against tough LHP, CT3 will likely be there at times. I believe that Chris Taylor will revert back to his “average” season: 32 doubles – 17 HR – 66 RBI – 13 SB – .256 BA, and a .332 OB%. However, he could benefit from the banning of the shift and do much better than that!

Busch has not played many games in LF – 13, to be exact, but I think he should have the opportunity to learn it well in Spring Training. This may be a full-blown youth movement, and what better time than the present… when the Dodgers have the best Farm System in baseball. When it rains, it pours! I will go out on a limb and predict that Miguel Vargas will win the NL Rookie of the Year and that Busch and Outman “MIGHT” be in the running too. That would be wild, but it could happen. I just hope Gavin Lux can exceed my expectations (on defense).

I will miss Cody Bellinger just like I missed Corey Seager, but that is the nature of the game now. Trea Turner was a nice player, and sabermetrics ranks him high, but he was a hired gun. That’s OK, but I like guys who want to be Dodgers. There are baseball players, and then there are Dodgers. If I have to explain the difference, you won’t understand!

BTW: Mookie Betts is bowling his ass off in Indy this week with the PBA. If he makes it to this weekend, I will go check him out at Woodland Bowl on 96th Street in Indy. I’ll take my son-in-law cameraman (Red Sox Fan), and see if we can get a quick interview. When I was a kid, my dad owned a bowling alley, and he bowled a 299 once. My high game was 229. I was not a great bowler (same problem as pitching – I throw a very straight ball… no movement or spin). Mookie has bowled at least five 300 games! Here’s one:

This article has 53 Comments

  1. Busch. 30 homers! Wow! He’s got to have a big spring to even make the team. I think the odds are pretty long that all 3 rookies will make it. So what is your prediction for Belli in Chicago?

      1. Bear you might be right. But I’ve heard from a mutual friend that Belli wanted a change of scenery. He didn’t go into any specifics but he likely would have signed with Chicago even if the Dodgers matched the offer. He wanted to play elsewhere. So it’s not necessarily that the Dodgers had given up on his bat. He may very well have a big comeback year. I hope he does.

  2. My highest game ever was a 277. I was psyched. I bowled in 3 leagues a week in the Army. Of course it was only10 cents a game. Now it costs a lot more.

  4. Mark’s 9 starters has only 1 difference than what AF hinted/said it would be. Busch in, Taylor out. Can Busch do better than what Taylor would do in the big leagues this year? That’s the million dollar question for Mark’s 9 starters.

    .266/.343/.480/.823 in AAA doesn’t give me confidence.

      1. “Luck is the residue of design.”
        — Branch Rickey, quoted in Sporting News, Feb. 21, 1946.

    3. Taylor will play against tough lefties. He will get 500 ABs. He has never had a permanent position.

  5. I really like that lineup to at this point but highly doubt they will start three rookies in same game very often unless they rake big in spring and the opportunities they get at beginning of year. Just getting two rookies in regularly be a big step for them

  6. I’ve never seen Busch play left field but with the middle infield being a work in progress can’t afford any liabilities in outfield. Pitching and defense wins games IMO

  7. To paraphrase Homer, “Mmmm… crow.”
    I notice that you have Outman starting in CF too, which might qualify for a second serving.
    At any rate, it was nice to read how bullish Roberts is about the young talent stepping up after the departures of Trea, Belli JT:
    “You know, to lose guys like Justin Turner who was a stalwart — who was an extension of me and the coaches — to lose a veteran player like Trea Turner, obviously we’re going to miss those guys. But, Gavin Lux is a young player, he’s been around. So he’s just going to get more opportunity at shortstop, which is great. Miguel Vargas, he’s been in the system, he’s a Dodger farmhand, baseball is in his blood. I can’t wait to see him get an opportunity to perform. We saw a little bit of James Outman last year. Outside of the great hair that he’s got, he has a great swing and can really dominate centerfield. So he’s going to get an opportunity. Dustin May, he’s a guy that Dodger fans have heard about for the last four or five years, he’s still a young player but he’s seasoned and he’s healthy.”
    Let’s hear that again re Outman: “…he has a great swing and can really dominate centerfield.”
    Of course Roberts will say nice stuff. But this seems to affirm that Outman already tops the depth chart for CF.
    I hope there’s a way Busch breaks through, but a platoon of Trayce and Taylor could make a lot of sense in left–assuming that Taylor gets his swing fixed. The roster has a lot of versatility. An injury at any position except catcher could make Busch a starter.
    As for your prefered lineup, it’s a possibility.
    But I think this is more likely:

    Mookie RF (if it ain’t broke….)
    Freddie (best hitter and best OBP guy on the team should bat second, If Lux leads off, I’d slot Mookie behind Freddie to better utilize Mookie’s power.)
    Smitty (I heard some Dodgers call him that. Almost everybody has a cute nickname now: Outy, Luxy, Vargy… Perhaps this is tribute to Mookie and Freddie…. I was going to got with JD, but Smith actually has put up better numbers recently. He’s improving and JD may be on the downslope.)
    Max (could get back to 35 HR form, batting cleanup. Great ABs, walks a lot)
    JD Martinez (Could get a part-time platoon partner–maybe Busch)
    Lux ( He was quietly excellent batting here in early 2022. Hasn’t earned a higher spot…yet)
    Vargas (fingers crossed)
    Outman (gotta love Roberts’ praise… A lot of Ks, but put up a higher OPS last year than his peers Vargas and Busch )
    Trayce/Taylor (A lot of Ks here–but this platoon could also deliver .800+ OPS and excellent D)
    Bench: Barnes, Heyward, Rojas… .Busch?
    If Busch rakes in the Spring, perhaps he’d get spot starts at DH, 2B, LF, 1B. And he could pinch hit too, essentially replacing the role that Rios and Beatty previously had. But it would be good to get Busch in the field a lot too, if possible.
    This should be fun…

    1. Go to YouTube and watch Outman’s and Busch’s swings. IMHO Outman does not have a pretty swing. It is somewhat weird, because I think he has short arms. That could be an advantage on inside pitches…. I don’t know. But, Busch has a smooth classic swing. That may mean nothing, but it could. Just an observation.

      1. Joc had a terrible swing too. And was also a AAA stud in CF. Still was a productive player. If only situational. If he’s the next Joc I’d be thrilled.

        1. In my opinion Shohei does not have a pretty swing either. Check the videos. Yet he hit more than 40 HRs a couple seasons back, and could do it again this year.
          Busch does indeed have a pretty swing, smooth and classic. Almost as pretty as Griffey Jr. Yet both Outman and Busch hit about 30 HRs last season. Not sure, but I think Outman had a slightly better HR/AB ratio. His OPS was higher despite the Ks.
          I agree with Jayne: If Outman can hit like Joc… terrific.
          And he’ll be a better fielder.

    2. Duke Not Snider

      I like your lineup, I always thought Smith would be good either 2nd or 3rd in the lineup.

      Reading your posts and replies to me it sounds like you are high on Outman and so am I.

      You would have to choose between Busch and Heyward or even Thompson (but you have him starting in a platoon so it would be the other 2 guys) because you have 14 guys listed.

      1. Damn I forgot to put these 2 things in my first post:
        I always thought Lux would be good batting 6th like you have him and I would make a tweak to your lineup and put Outman (7th) ahead of Vargas (8th). But Doc has many lineups.

        1. Dang, you’re right…. I have 14 because of the platoon.
          I knew something seemed off.
          The competition should be fun.

  9. I’m seeing that Mookie wasn’t talking much to people coming up to him in bowling alley. Likewise his coaches. Like, ‘hey this is my off season, let me alone’. But a lot of pressure to qualify and concentrate on what you are doing when it is not your main sport and you are there as an ‘amateur’. Good luck Mookie!!!

  10. Busch is going to have to really show a lot to make the team. I think he starts at OKC so he can play every day in case they need him somewhere down the road for an injury. I think the only non-roster player who will make the roster is Jason Heyward. The guy is working his ass off at Dodger Stadium and he has a huge chip on his shoulder and feels he has something to prove. Besides, he is with his buddy, Freddie Freeman who really harassed management into signing him. I think Mookie stays in the leadoff spot for now, at some point in the near future, Lux will assume that role. Mookie’s career stats as a leadoff hitter are pretty impressive as he has done most of his playing there. But he has not hit well in the three hole, where someone suggested his power would play, .267. He hits over .300 in the two and four holes. .293 as a leadoff hitter and the only spot in the lineup where his OPS is over .900. He hits better at home than on the road and is a plus .300 hitter the last 3 months of the season. Those are his career splits. Lux on the other hand has much less of a track record, but what he does show is that he is pretty bad against LHP. His best months are May and July. He hits better on the road than at home. He hits better as a starter than as a sub. So far his best spot in the lineup is 8th and 9th. He also hits well in the 2 spot.

    I believe the lineup will look like this, Betts. RF, Freeman 1B, Martinez, DH, Muncy, 3B, Smith, C. Heyman-Taylor, LF, Vargas, 2B, Lux, SS, Outman-Thompson, CF. Thompson could also show up in the 6 hole. That is if Roberts sticks to his usual L-R-L-R theory. My best lineup would be Betts, Lux, Freeman, Martinez, Smith, Muncy, the LF, Outman, Vargas. That’s my story and I am sticking to it.

  11. Well it’s the dodgers way to use 140 different lineups a year which I hate so all these lineups bound to be starting at one time or another and then some

    1. Why does it bother you if the lineup changes? Other than making sure your three best hitters are in the first 3 spots, I think it’s been proven that lineup order is pretty inconsequential. ESPECIALLY without the pitcher spot.

  12. Depth carries a team through injuries. I have no problem with multiple lineups in the regular season. In the playoffs you put out your best nine.

  13. My high game started with 6 strikes and none of them hit the pocket at least not on the right side pocket where I was aiming. Those 6 rolls were followed by 3 perfect rolls into the pocket that deserved to be strikes but were not. I screwed the 10th frame anyway. More lucky than unlucky.

    I think Lux will do well at short and I too would like to see him at lead off. Regardless of how much Muncy struggles, Roberts tries to hit him 4th or 5th. I would like Smith to hit 4th but Martinez will probably wind up there.

    I think Taylor will be in LF unless Outman and Thompson push him to the bench. I am not a believer in a Heyward comeback. If Heyward makes the team then Busch goes back to OK. I would love to see Busch in LF but my first choice is for an outfield of Betts, Outman, and Thompson.

    1. I bowl from the left side, so I have a natural break on the ball. After I got electrocuted in Germany, it changed my grip on the ball since my left forefinger is now bent at an angle. I had to move a couple of boards to the right to make sure the ball stayed in the pocket. My ball was customized, AMC Five Star Pete Weber model.

  14. I don’t have the numbers to back it up but hundred percent believe players perform better if they know their in the lineup every day and hitters lose timing when only playing every few games or so. Always the guys with best averages are the those that play regularly. Anytime a player misses a couple days or more for whatever reason the rust is easy to see. Depth is a great and necessary to have do to injuries or a player not cutting it. Also having specialized utility players like Taylor to give regulars day off when needed. I’m aware lineups will and need to change throughout the year but IMO dodgers go way overboard in every game lineup and order is way different than day before. There’s reasons why pinch hitting is one of hardest things to do in all of sports

  15. Is it true that the Dodgers are trying to get CJ Cron from the Rockies. It says in article to add power to the team. Can he play the outfield Dh 1B I guess. That’s the rumor today that Dodgers like him and Rockies want prospects.

    1. Where did you read that? He has nowhere to play in LA. Martinez is going to be the DH period. They both hit from the right side so that is redundant. Freddie is going to get 160 starts at first. Cron also makes almost 8 million a year. No team is going to carry two full time DH’s. Cron does not play the outfield and he is the Rockies starting first baseman, so trading him would create a huge hole in their lineup. Dodgers signed another of their former players, Outfielder Yusinel Diaz, who was traded to the Orioles in the Machado trade has signed a minor league deal with LA,

  17. Alex Cora bragged to members of the 2018 Red Sox about how the 2017 Astros stole the World Series against the Dodgers, according to Evan Drellich’s new book, “Winning Fixes Everything: How Baseball’s Brightest Minds Created Sports’ Biggest Mess.” The HarperCollins-published book goes on sale Feb. 14.

  18. DODGERS ANNOUNCE 2023 NON-ROSTER INVITES TO SPRING TRAINING

    LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers announced their 2023 non-roster invitees to Major League Spring Training, including 16 pitchers, three catchers, two infielders and six outfielders.

    The group of 27 non-roster invitees that will be at Major League camp are right-handed pitchers Matt Andriese, Dylan Covey, Tyler Cyr, Landon Knack, Bobby Miller, Nick Nastrini, Jake Reed, Nick Robertson, Tayler Scott, Gavin Stone, Wander Suero and Jordan Yamamoto, left-handed pitchers Robbie Erlin, Bryan Hudson, James Jones and Adam Kolarek, catchers Hunter Feduccia, David Freitas and Patrick Mazeika, infielders Devin Mann and Luke Williams and outfielders Drew Avans, Yusniel Diaz, Steven Duggar, Jason Heyward, Ryan Ward and Bradley Zimmer.

    The first official Spring Training workout for pitchers and catchers is February 15.

    PITCHERS (16) B/T HT WT DOB BIRTHPLACE
    Andriese, Matt R/R 6-2 215 8/28/1989 Redlands, CA
    Covey, Dylan R/R 6-1 215 8/14/1991 Glendale, CA
    Cyr, Tyler R/R 6-1 205 5/5/1993 Fremont, CA
    Erlin, Robbie R/L 5-11 200 10/8/1990 Oakland, CA
    Hudson, Bryan L/L 6-8 220 5/8/1997 Godfrey, IL
    Jones, James L/L 6-3 205 9/24/1988 Brooklyn, NY
    Knack, Landon L/R 6-2 220 7/15/1997 Johnson City, TN
    Kolarek, Adam L/L 6-3 215 1/14/1989 Baltimore, MD
    Miller, Bobby R/R 6-5 220 4/5/1999 Elk Grove, IL
    Nastrini, Nick R/R 6-3 215 2/18/2000 San Jose, CA
    Reed, Jake R/R 6-2 195 9/29/1992 Tucson, AZ
    Robertson, Nick R/R 6-6 265 7/16/1998 Roanoke, VA
    Scott, Tayler R/R 6-3 185 6/1/1992 Johannesburg, South Africa
    Stone, Gavin R/R 6-1 175 10/15/1998 Lake City, AR
    Suero, Wander R/R 6-4 216 9/15/1991 Sabana Larga, D.R.
    Yamamoto, Jordan R/R 6-0 185 5/11/1996 Pearl City, HI

    CATCHERS (3) B/T HT WT DOB BIRTHPLACE
    Feduccia, Hunter L/R 6-2 215 6/5/1997 Lake Charles, LA
    Freitas, David R/R 6-2 250 3/18/1989 Wilton, CA
    Mazeika, Patrick L/R 6-3 220 10/14/1993 Springfield, MA

    INFIELDERS (2) B/T HT WT DOB BIRTHPLACE
    Mann, Devin R/R 6-3 180 2/11/1997 Columbus, IN
    Williams, Luke R/R 6-1 186 8/9/1996 Park Ridge, IL

    OUTFIELDERS (6) B/T HT WT DOB BIRTHPLACE
    Avans, Drew L/L 5-10 195 6/13/1996 Alabaster, AL
    Diaz, Yusniel R/R 6-1 215 10/7/1996 Havana, Cuba
    Duggar, Steven L/R 6-1 187 11/4/1993 Spartanburg, SC
    Heyward, Jason L/L 6-5 240 9/9/1989 Ridgewood, NJ
    Ward, Ryan L/R 5-11 200 2/23/1998 Worcester, MA
    Zimmer, Bradley L/R 6-4 185 11/27/1992 San Francisco, CA

  19. Here’s a question:

    How many of the group of 27 Non-Roster Invitees make the team?

    A. 1
    B. 2
    C. 3
    4. More than 3

        1. I believe the guy is on a mission. He has a chip on his shoulder and he wants to reward his friend Freddies confidence in him. I give him 75-25 odds of making the team. Unlike the other non-roster slugs, this guy was an All-Star and he can hit.

  20. Out of camp or thru out the year? So this means Cartaya won’t be there I’m not sure. Out of camp I’d pick one

  21. Now that I think about it dumb question on my part oh well. Out of camp I’d pick one. Thru out the year definitely more than three.

      1. Mark
        A. 1 The guy we are both high on. Gavin Stone.

        Very slight chance but I doubt it Bobby Miller.

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