For the past several weeks, we have been discussing who is going to play where and how the rookies will fit in. Will Lux play SS or 2B? Will Vargas play 3B, 2B or LF? Will Outman start in CF? Will Busch play anywhere? There is a lot to be decided, and we are not going to solve all that today. That is why they have Spring Training. If I can fault one thing about Andrew Freidman, it is that he seems to be reluctant to “push” some of the younger players. He lets hem simmer a long time… or so it seems to me. However, today, we are going to look at the pitching staff… most importantly, the starters.
There are probably some better starters in baseball than Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Noah Syndergaard, and Dustin May… but there are not Five better starters than the five I mentioned above… and that is just the beginning. After that, you have Ryan Pepiot (who fared better than Clayon Kershaw in his first partial season), Andre Jackson (whom I expect to be a very good reliever eventually), Gavin Stone (who needs to be in he rotation), Bobby Miller (his ceiling is that of an Ace), Michael Grove (who had similar struggles to Clayton in his first partial season), and not far off is Nick Frasso. Of course, Walker Buehler is re-habbing from his second Tommy John. While it’s not likely we will see him THIS season, it is possible.
Now, I am writing this under the assumption that everyone will be healthy and we all know that is not happening. Yesterday, the Dodgers signed Tony Gonsolin to a 2 year/$6.65 Million Dollar deal. For a guy who was 16-1 last season with a 2.14 ERA, that seems really friendly. However, I think that the Dodgers and Tony both know that there is a pretty good chance he will have to undergo Tommy John as his stint of the DL last year with forearm tightness is a precursor of such. Still, with Gavin Stone and Ryan Pepiot and Bobby Miller and Michael Grove at the ready, things look very bright. Even without the Catman, the Dodgers rotation is Championship Caliber, in my opinion.
I would expect Thor to have a better year with TJ in the distance in his rear-view mirror and the fact that the Dodgers have this secret “Fairy Dust” that Mark Prior sprinkles on pichers who are seeking the Holy Grail of Piching. Thor will be Thor again. Urias should be another TOP 5 or 10 Pitcher and Clayton is sill in the upper echelon, even if he only pitches 120 innings. Dustin May is going to have his opportunity to re-gain the form he displayed in 2021. He struggled las season when he came back, but that was to be expected. The Rehabilitation Process from Tommy John takes time, both mentally and physically.
The Rookies are going to play a big role in how he Dodgers starting rotation does. I expect to see Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone, Mike Grove, Bobby Miller, and Andre Jackson all have a hand in the Dodgers’ success this year. To me, one of the most enjoyable aspects of baseball is to watch the youngsters become bonafide major leaguers and the Dodgers are loaded with them. Be patient – there will be some struggles early in the season, but the rotation is sacked… even if Tony Gonsolin has to undergo TJ (and I hope I am wring about that).
If that entire staff remains injury free through the entire season, I would be very surprised. What really sets the Dodgers apart is their starting pitching depth. Beyond their big three, Snell, Darvish and Musgrove, the Padres are thin. The Giants have Webb, Wood, Cobb, DeSclafani, Manaea, Stripling, Junis, as their depth. D-Backs have Bumgarner, Davies, Gallen, Kelley and not much else. Rockies have Freeland, Gomber, Lamet, Marquez, Senzatela. The Dodgers depth and the quality of depth gives them the best staff in the west. SF and SD both have very deep and very good bullpens. That is where the big difference is. LA has no set closer, the closest thing to one is Phillips. Graterol could become that guy, he has the stuff.
The Yankees have a MUCH better rotation and it’s not really that close…..Cole, Rodon, Cortes, Severino, Montas, German is a STACKED rotation. The top 3 are pretty much aces for most teams in the league. I do like our rotation though and think it has the potential to be the best in the NL.
Any one of those guys go down and the Yankees are in trouble. Not much behind them.
There are a lot of “IFs” there. The Dodgers are deeper.
I actually think kfizzle made a good post there (there’s a first time for everything), and I think I agree. If your 5th starter is Montas, then you’re doing ok. Cole had a slightly down year last year, but he is still considered one of the best pitchers in the game, Rodon was the Giant’s ace last year and was one of the most consistently good pitchers in the NL. Cortes was a better pitcher than Cole last year and is now hitting his prime, and Severino was the Yankee’s best pitcher in 17 and 18 and will in be in his second year back from Tommy John.
The Yankees had one of the best pitching staffs in baseball last year, and now their rotation has Rodon and fully healthy Severino.
Sure, the Dodgers probably have the better 6,7,8 potential starting pitchers, but come on! Really?
Montas, Rodon, and Severino have fairly extensive injury histories, and Cole has a lot of miles on that soon-to-be 33-arm (guys who throw that hard usually have to have TJ sooner or later). Their TOP 5 may be better, but the Dodgers’ depth will win out. Le’s see how it ends up.
The rotation, if enough guys stay healthy, should be one of the best.
Is it the best? One-thru-five, the answer is a definite maybe, especially is Thor gets back in the groove. But the Astros, Braves, Mets, Yankees all look pretty strong too–especially if we focus on the top 3 pitchers, which is what is needed in the playoffs.
The biggest possible upgrade would be that guy in Anaheim.
How good is Ohtani? Foolish Baseball has a report on Youtube that analyzed batters and pitchers in “high-level situations.” I’m not sure how they exactly defined a “high-level situation,” but we know when key situations come up in close games–those crucial moments in which Team A needs a hit and Team B needs a strikeout. That sort of thing.
Anyway, FB reported that Ohtani was the best pitcher in such situations.
The best hitter? Also Ohtani.
So yeah, it would take a big offer to pry him loose. But the Dodgers are in a great position to do just that.
The Dodgers, we know, have a great farm system. Bleacher Reports ranks it as the No. 1 system.
Meanwhile, the Angels are ranked as next-to-worst, just a little better than the surprisingly thin Braves.
BR helpfully divided prospects into rankings, which I’ll rename A, B and C. Among its top ten prospects, the Dodgers had seven As and 3 Bs. The Angels, meanwhile, have two !s, two Bs and six Cs. No doubt the Dodgers had several other Bs beyond the top ten, but the Angels had zero.
That’s why no team is positioned as well as the Dodgers to make a run at Ohtani.
And how many of these B prospects would end up in Chavez Ravine anyway?
Only if you believe the Angels are going to trade him. And then trade him to a team right next door. Isn’t happening. Moreno is a lot of things, but totally stupid is not one of them. And trading perhaps your biggest star to a team 45 miles down the road is not too bright. Especially with a fan base that is hungrier than Mark at a ball game for a winning season and post season play. That fan base would riot if he traded Ohtani to the Dodgers. And why would the Dodgers send what would have to be one of the biggest hauls ever for a guy who basically would be a rental? Not without some guarantee that he would sign a long-term contract they wouldn’t. One player, not even Ohtani is going to make them the odds-on World Series favorite. And we have seen how they have fared over the last few years when they have been the favorite. Ohtani, barring some last-minute miracle, is going to be a free agent after the season. He is going to be the centerpiece of perhaps the biggest bidding war ever. The Dodgers are going to have to outbid the Mets, Yankees, and yes even the Padres and Giants to get this guy’s signature on a contract. Oh yeah, they also signed a guy who is nothing but a pure DH to a one-year deal. So, the chances they have 2 pure DH’s are pretty slim. Ohtani does not play any other position regularly.
Correct. Thats why they will sign him in the off-season. Can take that to the bank.
I won’t be doing that. I think paying any player, even one with Ohtani’s talent, more than 40 million a year is insane. And that is the kind of deal he will be seeking. There are some who think he will get north of 500 million. That is ludicrous for one player. And it limits how many really good players you can sign and stay under the CBT which is not going to get really high for the foreseeable future.
That’s realistically going to be his market rate, and that’s on the conservative side. I don’t really like that pop stars like Kanye (or Ye) are multi-multi millionaires either, but they are payed what the market demands.
You have to pay to play. You may not think Ohtani’s worth that much, but other baseball owners are going to think differently.
Totally get that Patch, but I do not think that the Guggs group is going to spend that much on one player.
Interesting Bear,
I actually think the front office is much more likely to outspend the market on young Superstars than perhaps anything else.
Bluto, Ohtani turns 29 in July. So he will be closing in on 30 when he becomes a free agent. In baseball years, he is not young.
I am okay with a big guarantee but extraordinary pay should be incentive based or earned each year. I like the contract Gonsolin received although the bonus pay was on the light side considering how well he would have to pitch to earn it.
Incentives are a no-no for the Union.
Could you imagine the star power and the marketing/merchandising potential of Ohtani in LA? It’s almost hiding under a bushel down here in the sedate suburbia of OC.
I don’t think the ownership group wants flyaway, out-of-control spending with exponentially growing penalties. If enough money comes off the books in the next couple of years and the Dodgers have some good homegrown talent that’s cheap and controllable I think 40-50 AAV is reasonable. The Dodgers are willing to go over the CBT, just not excessively and not in perpetuity. If they can keep the CBT line in sight and make resetting it every once in a while at least a reasonable possibility, I could see them spending for a generational talent. Ohtani is a generational talent, a superstar, and, considering he’s a stud at two positions, maybe almost a bargain.
But, Cohen has more money and if he doesn’t Win it All this year (and he won’t) he will be hell-bent-for-leather and give Ohtani a blank check!
Probably, but he’s nuts. He needs to get another hobby. Start a spaceship company or something.
I am of the opinion that the Dodgers will absolutely not trade for Ohtani. If he wants to be a Dodger, I think Friedman will make it happen, but AF will not be the Top Bidder in Free Agency, and there is no way Arte is trading with the Dodgers for Ohtani UNLESS AF sends Miller, Stone, Pages, Vargas, Busch, and others. And that would be a Dope-Fiend Move.
Yeah, that would be a monumentally dumb move for a 1/2 year rental, and Moreno is dumb enough to demand all that.
Same rules of randomness and variability apply to mid-season pickups. Eddie Rosario was a pretty ho-hum move by the Braves, but he was on fire in the playoffs and killed the Dodgers.
Otani will be a Met next year, if the Angels don’t sign him. Cohen will definitely be the highest bidder. Bet on it.
Not with my money.
If Cohen wants Ohtani, he’ll definitely be the highest bidder, but Ohtani is one of the rare ones who won’t necessarily take the highest bid.
He’ll go where he’s comfortable. That might not be NY.
True dat!
I agree. Ohtani will be a billionaire by the time he’s 50 regardless what kind of contract he signs in 2024. The guy will be paid $50m a year to sell top ramen until he’s too old to sign a contract.
He will pick the team he wants. Then make the contract work. I do hope it’s the Dodgers.
Well the Dodgers have always had great pitching. It’s the hitting in the playoffs that stops. When they can play an shit the same in the playoffs that would be great. Being Consistent would be there key and when you put different players n the lineup tahts how teams play now I get that. But eventually you should have a starting nine that you would play in playoffs and go awh that is a good lineup. You look at the Padres lineup they pretty much are set at having those nine guys play about every game. The Dodgers they will send out Taylor some days and then the next Thompson and then maybe Outman and that’s just Monday Tuesday and Wednesday games. That’s what gets old as Dodger fans watch. We never know what lineup Roberts is going to put out there. All we do know is Freeman at first base and Betts in Rightfield as Dodgers Fans. And then you never know who you will see play else where?
Last year TT was usually at SS, Smith behind the dish, Belli in CF.
MGM put out there odds for over and under with dodgers winning 96 and padres 93. Seems Vegas thinks more of the dodgers than most analysts do. Got em over braves, Yankees and Mets to. Hmm
Pitching is the reason.
I would not be surprised to see the Dodgers go over 100 wins again.
Why would Moreno consider trading Ohtani just up the road to the Dodgers?
Good question. Here are some answers.
(1) One very plausible scenario to NOT dealing him to the Dodgers is to LOSE him to the Dodgers in free agency and getting NADA in return. Now, that would be STUPID. (And sure, the Dodgers may opt to simply wait and try to land Ohtani in free agency–but more about that later.)
(2) Moreno would be trading a partial season of Ohtani to LA for a group of good prospects who would be under contract for several years in cumulative. If Moreno comes to the conclusion he can’t keep Ohtani, using him to rebuild the foundation makes a lot of sense. A win-win deal is certainly possible. (Moreno is now a reluctant owner who plans to sell. Losing Ohtani with nothing in return diminishes the value of the franchise. What is the smart business decision? )
(3) OK, why shouldn’t the Dodgers just wait and hoard their prospects? Two reasons: First, Ohtani would help them win in 2023. Second, and perhaps more importantly, a blockbuster deal would be like rolling out the red carpet. Show Ohtani love and respect and commitment and he will be more like to sign long-term.
He seems like an honorable man and I suspect that Ohtani would be pleased knowing that he didn’t just leave the Angels with nothing, even though he owes them nothing.
I agree with Mark that the starting pitching is going to be really good. I also agree with Mark that Gavin Stone (#1 in my top 10 prospects) needs to be in the rotation immediately.
Besides the obvious pitching prospects Stone, Miller, Pepiot. I too like Nick Frasso just like Mark, I have him just out of my top 10 overall Dodger prospects along with Ronan Kopp. There’s Nick Nastrini too, I have him #10 and I’m high on Emmet Sheehan, my number 9. But I don’t know, I’m not much on Grove and Jackson. Those 2 would be good as trading chips in my opinion.
Bob Geren is no longer the bench coach. Danny Lehmann is taking over that role. Geren will now be the on field coordinator.
There is more to this story – say tuned!
For the first time publicly, Dodgers brass today addressed the team’s decision to release Trevor Bauer during a meeting with local reporters
Full story coming later on @latimessports w/ quotes from Stan Kasten and Andrew Friedman, but for now here are a few notable takeaways:
Friedman was asked if he regretted signing Bauer in the first place:
“The way it played out is obviously not what we thought. But with the way things have transpired, we feel good about our decision to move on and focus on the guys that we have.”
Friedman also said that while the Bauer situation was a major unknown this winter, it wasn’t necessarily a hindrance to the team’s offseason:
“I don’t think it impacted what we either did or attempted to do this offseason.”
Dodgers president Stan Kasten said the team feels “we did make the right decision.”
He said they took the entire two weeks after Bauer was reinstated to decide whether to release him “to be sure we were making the right decision.”
More from Kasten on the decision-making process:
“We had the time to check all our bases, get all the input you could get to make a decision, which we did. And that included hearing from Trevor, because we had not spoken to him since the beginning of this.”
Kasten didn’t provide details about the team’s meeting w/ Bauer the day before they DFA’d him –– including his claim that the team told him they wanted him back
“I’m not gonna get into contradicting or agreeing with anything about what was supposed to be a private conversation.”
Kasten said they hadn’t made a final decision prior to the meeting with Bauer, but that “we all had a strong feeling all the way through the process of the right way to handle this”
He added they reached their decision to release him “within a very short time” after that meeting
I am sure the Dodgers (maybe MLB too) are preparing for the Litigation that is coming!
It may be Epic!
It may be. It may also never happen. It may also be quickly dismissed.
The Dodgers wouldn’t have any legal liability. They met the terms of his contract, subject to MLB and the arbitrators independent decision. Dodgers paid Bauer exactly what they were obligated. There is zero chance Bauer would litigate v the Dodgers.
MLB is a different story. I’m no expert in the CBA and how player contracts are written. I’m not sure if they wave their right to file suit and accept the arbitration process in exchange. But if there will be any litigation, it would be Bauer v Manfred (and I’d like to see that happen). Dodgers had no say in the process. And paid him what they owed him. They had no obligation to let him play. Only to meet the terms of the contract (and MLB’s decisions on suspension and pay).
You would think the best team in baseball would be able to trade for any top shortstop in baseball. And we wouldn’t have to worry when Lux plays there and his throws to first base. You would think they could trade some minor league players and get the starter for the Brewers or the starter for the Diamondback’s or who is playing shortstop for the As you know a player that has played the postion. We had Russell we had Griffin we had Seager and we had Turner. Just get us a shortstop AF. Then have us wait for the trade deadline and put Lux at second base. You would think the Dodgers could do that.
They can Bradley. They can.
OK, I nominate you for Dodger Czar. Make it happen!
Bradley
What do you not like about just under .300 BA above .350 OBP? The lack of power? I’m with you there on lack of power. But who puts up A LOT better numbers at the position that trading for him is worth it? After you name someone give me BA and OPS numbers from him.
I’m actually not a big fan of Lux but…..
There’s Tim Anderson, Adames, Rosorio, shoot go for Javey Baez from the Tigers. They won’t be in the playoff chase. There I named four I would like to see at Shortstop over Lux. Just have to wait for the trade deadline is all. Or Chris Taylor will be there after a couple of games an Lux will be back at second base.
Just wait and see.Patience!He will hit with power.I am more concerned with our team hitting.
They probably could, if they wanted to. They don’t seem panicked.
They seem to think they have guys who are pretty good at that position already.
Griffin was a great fielder, but he had no stick. The A’s SS? Diaz? No thanks. Yeah Bradley, they could trade but the other team has to want to trade the player. Milwaukee stated in the offseason that Adames was not on the market. If he gets moved, it will be at the deadline. Arizona’s SS, Nick Ahmed, had surgery in the offseason, you seriously want to trade for a guy who will be rehabbing most of spring? Give Lux a chance before you say he cannot play the position. He may have fixed his problem. Sax did, why not Lux? Oh yeah, the Dodgers are not considered the best team in baseball anymore.
I would think the Reds the Brewers the Orielos the As or Mariners would want guys from the Dodgers. Wasn’t that shortstop for the mariners good Crawford I think. Is it just a position with out stars after Turner Seager Bogarts and that guy the Twins have those are the only good shortstops. Seems like they would have been grooming a shortstop the Dodgers when we had Seager. In case he left like he did. Was it Rojas is that why they traded him to the Marlins now he is back. He started for the Marlins. So is he taht bad to be the Dodgers starter and Lux play second and Muncy at third. Seems like that would give the middle of the infield better fielders. And then you put Vargas in Leftfield almost every day. Then center field is your platoon position with Outman Taylor and Thompson. If I was the Czar I would trade with the White Sox and get Tim Anderson a decent glove decent bat and a player you fans would like and then Rojas would be the utility guy an Taylor. IF I WAS CZAR. And I would offer whitsox Pepiot Busch and another minor league player.
You need to seek help or get off drugs!
I am being serious!
Really!
What was wrong with that trade a starting shortstop in the majors for three minor league player. And they didn’t use Miller or Grove or Jackson where would Busch play if he stays in OKC. With Whit Sox he is in the major leagues. You said Czar. So who would you trade for to get a better shortstop. I know you don’t like Lux at Shortstop either Simmons.
Bradley,
Why is your name now Lawton?
Or get ON them!
I find that my aggravation level is kept at bay when I visit here by simply learning not to read the comments by posters that aggravate me.
You do realize that the time you took to read his post is time you’ll never get back, right?
Thanks Patch I guess your okay with Lux at shortstop.
I’m just a fan. I’ll leave that decision to the powers that be
Old Bear, your article yesterday about the players inducted into the Hall of Fame and those who have not been unfairly voted for the same case, I congratulate you.
On the other hand, this Mr. Bradley seems to have a fixation for trading rookie Dodgers players for open pitching and for changing Lux’s position without even giving himself the opportunity to see him play SS, sometimes I think he is the Boras of Milwaukee players. His continuous narratives are on the same subject, this despite his explanations and the Timmons are very clear about why they did not occur in reality (perhaps he intends to put a “subject” on the table. Another Yawn
Thank you, Jose!
This blog is about opinions.
I give my opinions.
They are opinions.
I am frequently right.
But, I am not always right.
Feel free to disagree, but have a take and do not suck!
Just to clarify my last post a bit…
BleacherReports grouped prospects as Tier One, Two and Three, which I simplified as A, B, C.
BR described their top tier as potential all-stars: Cartaya, Vargas, Miller, Stone, Busch, Pages, Pepiot.
The next tier is for “solid contributors” on the ML level: Outman, Rushing, Nastrini (according to BR).
And the third is for the more marginal ML talents–the guys who might make it, mostly as role players.
The Dodger system seems especially deep at catcher and pitcher, but with Amaya gone the best SS prospects seem a few years away. That’s another reason to root hard for Lux.
I get it that ohtani is a two way player and real good at both and the value of creating another roster spot but then I think of all the close to star quality players could get for that same money over the years of the long contract he would want especially relief pitchers. In today’s game having a shut down pen is crucial. I’m not so keen on chasing ohtani like so many seem to be. Spending that kind of money on one player is insanity. How many times in the past in most sports have we seen high dollar long term contracts turn into nightmares and for a pitcher no way
Bradley you seem to have a trade just to trade fetish that make no sense or even would improve the team much. Give who we got a chance and trust in Friedman. He’s pretty good at his job and knows hell of a lot more about what’s going on with our club and others clubs than you or I. Personally I never go to a game to see one player other than picking out a pitcher been wanting to see in a particular series. If their big leaguers, all worth going to see
Then Michael, you must not live in Arizona
Your right I’m a born and raised so cal kid stuck in Louisiana working where no one talks dodgers which is why I put my lame two cents in here while enjoying for the most part what my fellow dodger fans are thinking. Only thing I know for sure is I love winning