Who’s Stealing Now?

Posted By on January 14, 2023

I have been wondering about this. The new bigger bases are supposed to improve the running game, IE, stolen bases. This has been a winter of change. The Dodger’s two best thieves of bags have left the team. Trea Turner, 27, and Cody Bellinger 14 have left via free agency. # 3 on the team last year was Freddie Freeman with 13. Mookie had 12, and Chris Taylor had 10. Those were the only players in double figures.

Gavin Lux stole seven bases. His number should improve if he is allowed to run. He has the speed; now all he needs is a green light and possibly some expert coaching on how to maximize that speed. Outman has some speed, but he did not show it at AAA last season. So, who will be the Dodger’s biggest threats on the bases in 23????

Freddie Freeman: Freeman is a very smart baserunner. He has excellent timing and knows when to take the chance. 13 steals for a guy his size is a pretty decent number. I do not expect Freeman to run a lot, but he will take a bag now and then, and usually, it is at a point in the game when they need a runner in scoring position. I believe Freeman will choose his moments carefully.

Gavin Lux: Lux has the speed to become an elite base stealer, I just do not think at this point in his career that it is an important part of his game. His highest total in the minors was 10. He stole seven last year and was caught twice. He has the speed, just lacks the motivation and knowledge. Maybe the larger bases will inspire him to attempt more.

Chris Taylor: Taylor has better than average speed, and he was one of the few on the Dodgers with double-digit numbers at 10. He was caught only twice. His MLB high for bags is 17. But back in the day, he stole 38 in the minors. He could be one of those who benefit by the three inches that the bases have been enlarged. He gets good jumps and reads the pitchers well. His age would probably keep him from stealing 20 or more, but I believe the high teens are and could be a target.

Mookie Betts: Mookie is clearly a fast runner. Except for his first big league experience, he has been in double figures his entire career. But the last time he stole more than 20 was in 2018, when he stole 30 bases. Mookie is very smart on the basepaths and accelerates quickly. He will get ten plus again and should be closer to 20 with the new bags.

James Outman: Stolen bases have been a part of his game his entire pro career. In 2021 he stole a combined 23 in the minors with two teams. Last season that number dropped to 13 as his power numbers went up a lot. But the kid has speed, and on occasion, I think that speed will be utilized. We still have to wait and see how his bat plays at the major league level.

Max Muncy: Max is not a real threat to run. He has 12 total in his MLB career. But he has only been caught twice. So Max can pick his spots, and if the opportunity arises, grab one for you. I expect he would be close to his career average of 3.

Will Smith: Smith is perfect in his stolen base attempts. 6 for 6. Again, I do not expect Will to run much at all, but when he does, he makes it.

Trayce Thompson: Thompson has 15 steals and has been caught three times in his career. Again, he has the speed, but he has not used steals as a weapon much in his career. He was 4-4 with LA last season. Depending on how much he plays, he could easily surpass that number.

Miguel Rojas: Rojas has never been much of a threat on the bases. He did steal 13 in 2021. Projections, Baseball reference, have him at 10. Anything he contributes to the offense will be a plus. If he can grab 10 bags, all that much better.

Austin Barnes: Barnsie does not run much at all. He has 18 in his MLB career. But he is a smart runner and will never run you out of an inning. He does have good speed.

Miguel Vargas: Vargas has not stolen much in his career so far. Last season at OKC, he had his highest minor league total at 16. He stole one base while with the Dodgers and was not caught. Overall in his short career, he has 48 steals and has been caught 11 times. I think the Dodgers will pick opportunities with him. But he is not the kind of runner who will get the green light to run on his own.

Yonny Hernandez: Hernandez, who, in my estimation, will not even make the team, is on here simply because his track record in the minors show’s him to be a base stealer with a lot of steals and a so-so stolen base percentage. He obviously has the speed, as evidenced by his 206 steals at all levels of his baseball journey. But he has also been caught 75 times. Not a great percentage. But, if he were to make the team, I am positive he would not only be used as an infielder but a speedy replacement on the bases for someone much slower in the late innings.

Jason Heyward: Heyward may or may not make the team. Spring training is going to mean an awful lot toward determining his future with the Dodgers. On the basepaths, he is way past his prime and has not stolen in double figures since 2016. I do not expect him to run much if he does make it onto the roster.

Steven Duggar: Duggar has not been a stolen base threat since early in his career. He stole 25 when he was at Clemson and has not come close to that since. That was in 2014. Again, one of those players I do not expect to make the team.

Bradley Zimmer: Zimmer stole 18 bases for the Guardians in 2017 and 15 in 21. He stole 44 and 38 in the minors, but again, has not come close to those numbers since 2016. I do think if he was an everyday player, he could get at least 20 if not more. He has excellent speed. I also do not expect him to make the team. He could get a call-up later in the season if there is an injury.

That pretty much covers the guys, I believe, even having a chance of sticking around. Of course, there will be changes; there always are. The days of Maury Wills, Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman, and Lou Brock are long gone. The stolen base is just not as big of a part of the game as it used to be. And with it, a lot of the excitement in the game has gone. I can still hear the go-go chants of the fans at Dodger Stadium when Wills would get on base. Long ago now. A time period froze in a picture of Wills stealing third in a cloud of dust.

This article has 60 Comments

  1. Great write up Bear. SBs just not big part game anymore unfortunately. I remember those 70 teams Lopes would get on – steal 2nd, Russell get him to 3rd, Reggie drive him in. Those pitching rich teams of 60s with Sandy,DD relied heavily on Maurys steals. Low scoring,base stealing was everything to those teams

    1. I think the SB will attempt a comeback this year with a little less space between the bases due to their larger size, but analytics (damn analytics) tell us that if you can’t steal at a 75% to 80% rate, it ain’t worth it. I expect to see teams run more, and that is why I would like to see the Dodgers’ fastest player lead off: Gavin Lux!

  2. Yep, that was the formula … a walk, a stolen base, a ground ball to move the runner to third, and a sacrifice fly. A run without a single base hit. Sandy would throw a shutout, and we win, 1-0. Happened so often, we kind of got used to it!

    1. A lot of people forget that the key to that success was the #2 hitter in the lineup. Jim Gilliam. Gilliam sacrificed personal stats for team wins. If there ever was a player who deserved to be in the Dodgers ring of honor, it’s Gilliam. I am still pissed that they bypassed the Gilliam bobblehead they were set to give away in 2018 and replaced it with a Manny Machado. Gilliam deserved better.

      1. Bill Russell did the same. Sabr’s can’t account for it, so it’s a thing of the past. Can’t wait for Managers to start bucking the trend of letting the computer choose the lineup.

  3. It will be really nice to see stolen bases brought back into this game of baseball. It’s just part of the game. With the shifting of players not allowed this next year. You will see alot more stolen bases and more sac bunts too. It will bring back the important part of the game. Having players with speed. Growing up I remember those great St Louis Cardinals teams. They might not have hit for power. But we’re they fast. Willie McGee, Ozzie Smith, Vince Coleman, Lonnie Smith. They played on that carpet at home and it was like zoom rabbits on the bases. Great article Old Bear bringing back stolen bases will be great to see. My favorite Dodger to watch steal bases was Davy Lopes. Never got to see Maury Wills play. I wasn’t born yet. But did see Lopes and Sax, and Puig all good base stealers. And of course saw Ricky Henderson in person. He was so fast. Was like the Flash just zoom gone.

    3. It was crazy in the 70’s and 80’s with those huge, fast, turf fields. Fast Outfielders were at a premium. Cardinals, Royals, Expos, Astros all had those types of stadiums.

  4. Since we are talking about speed, thought I might bring up a post I read this morning that you can find on Yardbarker about Andy Pages. Although only a year ago he was projected as a CF, some scouts say he has lost some foot speed and his routes are not run crisply. He is hesitant sometimes. He dropped in the pecking order on the prospect list to the point where he is now behind a couple of newcomers, Nastrani, Rushing. Scouts also question his stay as an outfielder. Projecting he could end up a first baseman or DH. His stats took a hit at AA last year when he had decent power numbers with 26 bombs and a bunch of doubles. But his OPS and OBP took hits. So it seems this season is going to be an important season of evaluation for him and the Dodgers. My opinion is if he is not an outfielder, I would use him in a trade package for a need.

    1. Have you seen his arm? It’s a cannon. At worst, he plays LF, but he has a Rightfielders arm.

      My closest comparison to him is Marcell Ozuna. He’s not a superstar, but a solid player. He tore up the AFL this Fall after a uninspiring 2022 season at Tulsa. 2023 will be a defining year for him.

      2. I think what I’ve read is that he’s not as fast as he was when he was younger and more lithe. Maybe that means he gets pushed off center field, but if he can hit with that kind of power in the bigs, he’s the Dodgers answer for LF. I don’t know why taking a step back defensively as a center fielder means he just a designated hitter now. That’s a little extreme. And yes, he’s got a cannon arm.

    1. Dodger pitchers have not been the best at that skill for a while. RH have more trouble than lefty’s. Kersh and Urias two of the best. But there is also a new rule that limits the number of throws you can make to first. Two If you do not get the runner on the third throw, he is awarded second base. They are trying to speed up the game.

      1. That would be the plan! The two-pickoff attempt rule is going to affect some pitchers more than others also. Gonsolin was the only Dodger player not to agree to a deal and they will now exchange figures before going to arbitration. Supposedly they were 400,000 apart. Gonzo 3.4 mil and the Dodgers 3.0. Phillips signed for 1.25.

  6. Seems like with Pages Stone and Miller have really no place for them on the current major league roster. These players would be the ones to use for a top notch short stop or outfielder in a trade.
    I mean really if you were the As, Royals, Pirates, Brewers, Nationals, DBacks, even the Rockies.
    If you could get those three guys and say Lux. That would be a great trade for those teams. And for the Dodgers then they get a legit player. I just don’t see Lux as the everyday shortstop. I wonder since they went and traded for Miguel Rojas. Did the Dodgers even ponder Elvis Andrus. I mean at least he started at shortstop for the As and the Rangers. Wouldn’t that be better having a veteran guy. They seem to do that the Dodgers. Get a veteran that’s near the end of his career that can field and hit for average. Or like someone said. Maybe they will do Muncy at 3rd Rojas at SS Lux at 2b and put Vargas in LF every day. How does that lineup look. Maybe they do that for awhile and see by the deadline where they are at. And then see what shortstops are doing around the league.

  7. Gavin Stone should NOT be traded.

    If that’s all I have to say in a post, it’s legit.

    I read the rest of your post and found something else. Rojas should NOT be a starter.

    1. To a lesser extent than Stone, Miller should not be traded.

      I don’t care about Pages in that trade you’re talking about because personally I think he’s overrated.

      Don’t get hung up on defense. If you substitute Elvis Andrus who I never heard of before you mentioned him, instead of Lux you are losing some offense for apparently defense.

      The key to success is get and produce stars and superstars and fill in the blanks with others.

    2. But of course, you do believe that because you put no value on defense or putting the ball in play. You dig the long ball and Fantasy Baseball, but there is a lot to be said about his defense and not striking in the 9th spot of the batting order.
      His 10 outs above average on defense at shortstop last season ranked tied for sixth in the Majors. He also has 15 defensive runs saved at the position, according to Fangraphs. Miguel is a career .260/.314/.358/.672 hitter in nine Major League seasons. We had four guys with a lower batting average than that in the lineup almost all of last year. Andrus is asking for more money and is not as good defensively. THIS GUY IS ELITE AT SS. Much better than TRae Turner or Jacob Amaya, and of course, Gavin Lux.

      1. I don’t necessarily dig the long ball. An example is Lux has no power, but when his batting average was .300 and above last year and his OBP was good I said if he keeps his batting average and OBP there he’s good enough.

      2. Wait a second I re-read your post and there weren’t 4 guys in the lineup almost all of last year under .260 there was Taylor, Muncy, Bellinger. Don’t count Smith at .260 BA because his OPS was .807 far more than .672

  8. Bradley, you stated “Seems like with Pages Stone and Miller have really no place for them on the current major league roster. These players would be the ones to use for a top notch short stop.”

    Do you have a shortstop in mind?

  9. Concerning Rojas it would seem that he thinks he is with the Dodgers to fill in at the infield positions when needed. He has played all four at some point in his career. So that makes it clear that for right now, Lux will be the starter at least through spring training anyway. As for Andrus Bradley, I think they might have not wanted to sign a guy who made 14 mil last season. They are right now above the CBT, but that could change later on. They must feel at this point that Lux and Rojas are the best options. And Rojas has been Miami’s starting SS for the last four seasons. Pages might not be in the Dodgers long term plans, but most scouts agree that Miller and Stone will see time in the majors this season and both are insurance against an injury to one of the MLB starters.

  10. Trea would’ve been fun to watch this year. The Dodgers aren’t going to steal, and I don’t think the bigger bags will change that. I will say, though, that the baserunning aggressiveness Mookie brought to the 2020 WS did make a difference. I think, maybe, the Dodgers noticed, too, and wanted to implement a more aggressive running game. That is hard to do when half your lineup strike out nearly half the time. Maybe things will change a little with guys like Rojas who can put the ball in play.

    We haven’t talked about Bauer in a couple of days. Did I hear correctly that the usual band of wokesters is still complaining about him.

    “Dodgers refuse to own their fiasco”

    Apparently that’s courtesy of Dylan Hernandez. Do I even want to read that article or will it just irritate me?

    And, if I interpret that quote, it appears Dylan thinks merely releasing Bauer and eating the entirety of his salary and pretty much screwing up the team’s budget and ability to sign players just isn’t enough. The Dodgers have to perform some sort of cleansing, ritualistic penance to atone for their sin.

    Did I not call this a week ago? Once Bauer was gone, these people wouldn’t merely stop. Witches have to burn, suspected counter-revolutionaries need to be guillotined.

    1. You are right Patch, do not read it. I got the gist of it from Badger. Typical Hernandez BS. There was also a report today that the two New York teams will not be in on Bauer. If he signs with anyone, it will most likely be a team he has not had dealings with in the past although it has been rumored that the Reds have interest. He has burned a lot of bridges and does not have many friends in the front offices in the league. Hernandez wanted Kasten and AF to admit they screwed up signing Bauer.

      1. I don’t know why Preller isn’t interested. Someone else posted that the only exec who would touch Bauer would have been Al Davis. Funny, cuz I made the same analogy about the Padres. They are like the 80s Raiders. They don’t mind having bad boys on the team and apparently can tolerate clubhouse dysfunction. I think even the fans like that bad boy/showboat attitude.

        Bauer on the same team with Tatis and Machado would be entertaining.

        Here’s my fevered conspiracy theory about the whole Bauer incident. I find it interesting that she showed no evidence of any bruising or redness the morning after the incident, but she looked like she got run over by a train that evening.

        My theory is that Tatis found out she was getting together with Bauer. It’s actually a fact she was sleeping with Tatis. Upon finding out she was sleeping with Bauer, Tatis flew into a jealous rage and beat her. Rather than incur more of Tatis’ wrath (and still being a loyal Padres groupie) she blamed Bauer, hoping for payday.

        Preller knows this, which is why he’s reluctant to sign Bauer, even though he really needs starting pitching help. Bauer and Tatis would be fighting in the clubhouse.

        That’s my theory and I’m sticking with it.

        1. Interesting theory. Their clubhouse does not have all that much positive chemistry anyway. Machado and Tatis not exactly bosom buddies.

        2. I think Manfred has made it clear that NO ONE had better sign Bauer. You had better listen to the Great Manfred, or he will ruin you!

    2. Hernandez is a woke moron.

      Rojas and Vargas will allow the team to run more because of the way they put the ball in play.

      1. I am pretty interested to see how all the players are used in spring training. X-factor to me is Busch. If that kid has an outstanding spring, how are they going to justify sending him to AAA again. Same thing with Outman. Outman needs to perform during spring training. Spring will make or break Heywood too. His lone chance of making the 26-man rests on his work in spring. Yonny Hernandez would seem to be the odd man out. It is kind of a shame since he is the one player on the team who uses the stolen base as a huge part of his game. If he could only hit.

  11. Andrus is a 14-year vet who has spent time with Texas, Oakland and the White Sox. He is a career .270 hitter so offensively he is more than adequate. He has more power or at least has shown more power than Lux. He clubbed 17 bombs last year. He also makes more money than Lux and Rojas combined. Defensively he has a career .974 fielding percentage at SS with 219 errors in 14 years or about 16 a year, so he is not a defensive whiz at all.

    1. Actually, he’s interesting. He’s a FA right now. Although he is a Boras client. His last contract paid him 15 mil AAV, but no team wanted to pay that much so he kept on getting traded mid-season. He seems to be a better than average defender.

      Rojas will be fine. Rojas seems like a good clubhouse guy.

  12. If Cleveland sputters out of the gate that’s Rosario that plays shortstop for the Guardians that would be the guy to get fields better then Lux and hits alright. That’s who I have my eye on. Someone asked what shortstop. There I gave one. A Rosario and Bieber trade is possible at the deadline. It all depends on where the teams are at in the standings.

    1. I agree he would be a great pickup and so would Bieber, I see only one hang-up to the deal and that is the fact that Rosario is a free agent after the season, and he would only be a rental.

  13. So a Muncy Andrus Lux Freeman Smith infield wouldn’t that make you go okay. At least we have good fielders playing in the right positions.
    And then a outfield of everyday play LeftfielderVargas and Heyward, Outman starts in Center field with sometimes Taylor or Thompson in Centerfield, an Betts every day in Rightfield. Yeah I could go with that. Can that lineup compete with San Diego’s lineup? It’s about even but the Dodgers still have the pitching. That’s if they decide to sign Andrus as a free agent if there uncomfortable with Lux as the starter. We will see spring training will be here soon.

    1. They are not getting Andrus – Read tomorrow’s blog, and you will understand why. Andres is no longer a plus defender. To me, it looks like he has lost a couple of steps and put on 15 pounds. He has more “pop” than Rojas but strikes out at an alarming rate.

      At the present time, the Dodgers are not interested in signing or trading… unless it gets them under the CBT!

  14. While there may not be a place for Stone and Miller this year what happens next year. Kersh retires or leaves for Texas. Urias signs elsewhere and with Boras as his agent is a real possibility. Buehler doesn’t recover from a 2nd TJ surgery which is a distinct possibility.

    1. I have to believe that both Miller and Stone will be on the active roster at some time this season simply because someone will most likely spend time on the IL. Buehler will probably not pitch at all this season. Syndergaard and Kersh both free agents again after the season and so is Urias. So trading either of them is a little premature.

      1. Totally agree. Stone is now ready and could be on the Opening day Roster if he pitches in the spring like he did last year. With Miller, one day, the switch is likely to Click.

  15. Well I am sure that’s why there not over spending this off season. The dodgers always have good pitching just in case thou if they need two new starting pitchers next year. Then they will have the money. Who would be some top free agent pitchers next year and a shortstop that they the dodgers could go after. If they lose Kershaw Buehler and Urias and Thor. Anybody have ideas who will be out there.

    1. If Urias walks, they will need three. Keeping under the CBT will help them with Bieber, but then you have to figure out which kind of package you want to send for a rental. And after all, would not Rosario be the main target? Bieber has one more year after this season on his contract. Of course, the best option would be to sign them both to long term deals. Lately rentals have not shown much inclination or interest, with the exception of Arenado who could have opted out, of staying with their new team. Of the latest additions to the Dodgers over the last several years, almost all of them left when the season was over. Scherzer, Machado. So we will just have to wait and see. I do not think the Guardians are in a bad spot though. Their division is relatively weak. White Sox and Twins their only real competition.

  16. Just listened to a Keith Law Podcast:

    Andy Pages:

    Power: 70 (80 is highest)
    Arm: 80
    Still cutting his strikeout rate down
    Walks a lot
    He does not think he will be just a “Low average slugger”

  17. I keep reading blogs that say Friedman should just extend Urias. What a bunch of Dumbasses! I love Julio Urias – I stood up against trading him over and over and took a lot of flack for that, but he has proven to be a stud. However, how do you sign him? You have to overpay. The Mets will likely offer him a 10-Year/$300+ Million Deal. I love him, but that is not a good idea. He won’t be extended because the bidding for him will be crazy!

    Same with Ohtani!

    1. I love Urias, but he’s gonna have to take a reasonable offer to stay like Kershaw has done. Pay the man, but don’t go crazy in length. If he doesn’t want it, we still have a couple of rotations of minor leaguers.

  18. I have to believe that his agent, Scott Boras, will tell him to enter free agency, reject the QO, which the Dodgers will most certainly offer and see what is out there for him. He will probably be the best starting pitcher on the market. If the Dodgers were to make it through the playoffs and into the World Series, I also have to believe that Kershaw would at that point in time retire. Especially if he has a successful run in the playoffs himself. Pitching wise the Dodgers are pretty well stacked in the minors. Some will make it, and some won’t. It will be a very interesting couple of years.

      1. Looks like that might be it. Is Bruns a lefty? They could always sign a lefty free agent. Montgomery of the Cardinals is going to be a free agent after this season. Snell and Ryu are also free agent after the season.

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