It’s time for some Sunday School, Boys, and Girls, and I have a few observations, including what the Dodgers need to do for a SS, CF’er, and a six-man rotation in 2023. It’s time for some Sunday School Education.
- JD Martinez: The fact that the Dodgers signed J..D. Martinez means two things: (1) Max Muncy will play 3B while JD plays his best position – DH; and when Muncy DH’s Miguel Vargas plays 3B, but otherwise, he will be in LF. I doubt that J.D. plays the field much… if at all. I have heard from multiple sources that Justin Turner was susceptible to the fastball last year, and they expect it to get worse this year as he will be fed a steady diet of them. JDM has a close relationship with RVS, and while JD is no longer the slugger he used to be, I think RVS helps him have a stellar season.
- Gavin Lux: I think he is ready to break out as a 2B. He should lead off and use that speed. He could be an All-Star. Friedman will not let him play SS. That could derail his whole career. Watch and learn. Someone else will play SS… not Gavin. I’ll tell you who shortly.
- Miguel Vargas: He could play 3B or LF. If the Dodgers just let Miguel learn LF, he will be fine and in the running for ROY.
- Brett Anderson: He wants to come back, and I would endorse it (but not to the Dodgers) because if Trevor Bauer is re-instated, I’d love to see him bitchslap that fat ^%$*# all over the field.
- Dustin May: Why do so many of you look at last year and think his troubles in coming back will just continue? He missed over a year! He was rusty! He is young. That is typical! Give him Spring Training and some games into the season, and he will be fine. I see 12 wins and a 3.20 ERA.
- Thor: I see a guy who wants to resurrect his career. he was OK (merely) last season. He does not need to throw 98 to be successful – he needs to learn to pitch better (maybe a new pitch), and the Dodgers are the ones to teach him that. I predict 18 wins and a 2.70 ERA. He is going to win a lot of games slotted at #5.
- Tony Gonsolin: Unless he is really injured, I expect the same kind of season as last year. He’s not a workhorse, but especially with an aging Kershaw in the rotation, I could see him flourishing in a six-man starting staff. I don’t know what Urias would think about that. Maybe six days would keep Clayton healthy all season. I think it has to be a consideration. I would look for the six-man rotation by May.
- Dansby Swanson: I got the feeling the Dodgers thought Dansby was a nice player and would have signed him for something that amounted to stealing him, but now he is a Cub. If anyone thought Friedman was going to give up picks and International SB Money, they were greatly mistaken! He is building for the future every day!
- Chris Taylor: The Dodgers could do worse than have CT3 at SS. He was coming off elbow surgery last year, and without the shift, I look for him to have a better year offensively. He’s not Ozzie Smith, but he’s solid and has a good arm that should be better a year removed from surgery. Let’s not forget that in 2021 CT3 had 507 ABs (that’s “Regular Status”) with 20 HR, and 13 SBs (caught once), with a .254 BA and .344 OB%. Why could his bad year in 2022 not be related to his elbow surgery and rehab? The more I think about it, the more I see CT3 as the SS in 2023. CT3 would be a solid choice at SS. Lux might be Gold Glove at 2B, Freeman is close at 1B, and CT3 ain’t a chump. Max Muncy is merely average. I can live with that.
- Trevor Bauer: I heard from what I consider a reliable source that Trevor Bauer will have his entire suspension overturned and here is something as ridiculous as it sounds, the Dodgers will be on the hook for all his salary- even though he was not playing. That does not seem right to me, and the Dodgers may file a Grievance. However, that is part of the reason the Dodgers have been quiet. We shall see if my source is reliable.
From Chris Taylor’s own lips: “I would love to play short and center, (but) haven’t even had that conversation or thought about it at this point. We’re still early in the offseason. A lot can happen. Shortstop always has been my favorite position, so that would be exciting if I got to play some shortstop. And outfield is outfield to me. Left field, center, right, it’s kind of all the same.”
Look at this lineup and my projections:
- Lux 2B – .290 – 14 HR – 30- SB
- Betts RF – 290 – 35 HR – 18 SB
- Freeman 1B – .310 – 25 HR
- Smith C – .275 – 30 HR
- Muncy 3B – .255 – 35 HR (this is what Muncy usually does… what’s not to like about that? )
- Martinez DH – .290 – 20 HR/35 DBL
- Vargas LF – 275 – 20 HR 15 SB
- Taylor SS – .260 – 18 HR 20 SB
- Outman/Thompson CF (combined) – .240 BA – 25 HR – 25 SB
I would argue that the above lineup could very well be better than the 2022 lineup!
The Dodgers re-set the Luxury Tax and are getting ready for three more years of driving it up. The bench consists of Barnes, Hernandez, Amaya, Outman (or Thompson, depending on the day), and another player, like Busch, Vivas, or Leonard. The numbers I have assigned are aggressive but not crazy. I think Miguel Vargas can get out of bed and hit .275. Muncy and CT3 are healthy – they will both do better. Will Smith and Gavin Lux will keep growing, and the Dodger’s six-man rotation may be the best in baseball.
The Dodgers might look at Bryan Reynolds (or Michael A Taylor), but I think they try “in-house options first.” Notice I have not even mentioned Jason Heyward? I expect nothing, but you never know. We saw what happened with Matt Kemp for a half-season when everyone thought he was done. Kemp was never as fit as Heyward, so we just have to wait and see.
A lot of things would have to go right, but I can still see this team beating the Padres… again!
Beat the Padres again? Every month but October!
You forgot how they manhandled them in 2020. Three game sweep, and the photo is of the Phillies. Mark thinks they could do it to SD again if it got that far. Quit worrying about what happened last year. It is over. Padres have never won any of their last games of the season. NONE> Oh by the way Cassidy, last year was the second and only time the Dodgers have faced the Pads in the post season. Their record against SD in post season is 4-3. So your statement does not make sense since it is totally false. They owned the Padres all year. They have owned them the last several years. Check stats before you make statements like that.
Except for October! Who cares about the regular season!
Cassidy, read my lips. They have only played against the Padres twice in the postseason. They swept them in 20 and lost this year. So they beat them 4 and lost 3 games. They haven’t played all that often in October, so chill dude, Your post is totally wrong.
One other thing Cassidy, you do not get to the postseason unless you beat your competition during the regular season. Which would you rather be? A wild card team and have to beat someone in a one game playoff like they did the Giants in 21, or be the division winner, get homefield advantage and play in front of your fans the first two games. They own the effing Padres. Have for years. Padres got them when they had 5 days off and whether you believe it or not, that 5 day layoff was poison to this team. They were flat and the Padres were fighting for their playoff lives. So there is that. But making a blanket statement that they cannot beat the Padres in October is so absolutely wrong.
I’m exhausted after watching my hometown Bills beat Miami in the snow, but I will share one thought from your article- YES, YES, YES….CT3 at SS and not Lux makes me feel better. Keeping Lux at 2B makes me sleep easier too.
Okay with that I’m out of here. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
TM
Mark thanks again for putting my mind at ease again with your wisdom. I did post that I would like to get Jean Segura type player for so but your idea of using CT3 at that position makes a lot of sense. He personally has said I believe more than once that he prefers to play shortstop. Problem solved.
Mark, you say that Bauer’s suspension will be overturned and then you say we’re going to reset. You gotta make a choice. They won’t both happen.
When you list your lineup and then the bench pieces, if I’m counting correctly you list 5 guys on the bench. We only get 4.
We’ve just signed Bradley Zimmer to a minor league deal. There’s your center fielder, especially if one of the prerequisites for the job is that the center fielder can’t hit.
Well, the Dodgers will have to make a choice. There is no precedent that I am aware of. It seems patently unfair if the Dodgers are on the hook for when Bauer was suspended, as they did not suspend him. There are a lot of moving parts to this, and with penalties and pay; it could be nearly $200 Million, depending upon a bunch of things that I don’t have time to calculate. Maybe a retired CFO could do that!
See, it all came together. Don’t shell out those long contracts unless you’re the best of the best and fairly injury free.
I freaking love JDM on a one-year deal! He’s 35 next year, look for a bounce back. He loves SVS! He’s a better fit in the order than Trea. Objectively a model cleanup hitter! Too soon, Bluto?
Lux will be at SS. We’ll see who’s right.
Eric is right, Busch will have to earn his job.
Vargas in LF is more scary than Lux at SS for me. Hell, Muncy at 2nd or 3rd is more scary than Lux at SS.
This lineup will be better than last year’s lineup. Bank on it! Defense? Not so much.
Scott Van Slyke? 😉
Give Miggy all Spring – he’ll catch a fly ball.
Andy got all the talent, Scott got the size. RVS
Stay Golden, Ponyboy.
You nailed it.
Coming into the off-season, I wanted a veteran toolsy bat on a short term to replace Trea’s spot in the lineup and narrowed it down to Martinez, Abreu, or Votto. At 10 million and 1 year, Martinez might be the best deal. Now we can continue to trot out five batters who are not three outcome hitters vs staggering them with Muncy or Swanson. I’m definitely more optimistic now about our chances next season because of this.
I’ll be shocked if Lux isn’t the opening day SS. Lux is not my personal choice, but Roberts mentions his name first as next man on deck and I think they’ll want to at least audition him thru the early season. I don’t know if they’ll keep him at 9th in the order, but I liked him there. Gives our reigning HR leader -Mookie- more at-bats with someone on base. Plus, the less pressure on Lux the better. He’ll have enough on his plate re-adjusting to SS. I worry about Taylor’s range as a full time SS without the shift protection. I worry about his ability to hit the fastball now. I’d be planning to phase Taylor out at this point, not give him a bigger role. Maybe I’m being too pessimistic on him, but the creeping age has my spidey senses on alert.
I’m bullish on the rookies though. I think Vargas will need 400 at bats to find his groove and hopefully they just let him grind thru it. Expect Outman to be streaky, but the hot stretches will forgive a lot. I think Busch has the most major league ready bat, will have the best numbers at year end. Once they insert him, he’ll give them reasons not to take him out. At worst, he’ll hopefully push Muncy to perform. I’m optimistic on May and Gonsolin as well. I expect they’ll give Stone the same show-us-what-you-got test White, Jackson, Pepiot got last year, but I think he’ll pass. He’ll show the best command keeping the pitch count low and he’ll get K’s with the changeup. I don’t think we’ll see Miller until the 2nd half.
If Bauer’s suspension is completely overturned it would seem only fair that the commissioners office would be where Bauer’s back pay should come. Single handedly Manfred is the cause of mishandling this affair and his position is to have fairness maintained in baseball. He has failed and needs to be held accountable. Handicapping a team franchise by overstepping his power is worse than Rose betting on baseball as it not only had major impact crippling Dodgers business wise it changed what could of been. Manfred set the world on a different path. He is not good for the game.
100% agree with you Quasi, the tyrant Manfred should pay TB’s salary and his lawyers’ fees.
By the way, Mark was great about the “Opticrectumitis.” and his subsequent description of the idiot troll who wrote bullshit yesterday.
Welcome to Dodger Rehabilitation Center, ,where we’ll fix your swing or pitching mechanics if you’ll sign a one year deal and move on to another club the next year for more money. These shorter deals benefit the Dodgers on a shorter term basis while we wait for Dodger potential prospects to take their place.
There’s truth in that!
I was catching up on Fangraphs today (hadn’t read it in a couple of weeks) and Eric A Longenhagen had this to say about Jeter Downs:
Became apparent in the upper levels that he could not get on top of high fastballs and he couldn’t adjust once the book was out
Then he was asked this: Do you think gavin lux playable at shortstop? What about muncy at 2nd with thr new shift rules?
His Answer:
No to both, IMO
I mean, I think even Ray Charles can see that. With JDM, Muncy goes to 3B, where (if you leave him alone) he will be serviceable. He will work hard to be above average and Taylor is better at SS than Lux. Ray saw that!
Yeah, looked back to one of his chats in 2020. He had Jarred Kelenic ahead of Julio Rodriguez and Lindor going to the Cardinals, so there’s that.
Hey, nobody gets it all correct and you also don’t know if J-Rod will pull a Belli…
That’s my point. He’s not correct about Lux. We all know that Lux has throwing issues from time to time. But, everything else is there. He has softer hands and more range than CT3 and Doc already said he’s the next man up at SS. When he was drafted, the Dodgers scouts said he was the most likely player to stick at SS in the draft. I never heard any rumors of him not being able to play SS until he started playing 2B for the Dodgers. Even that year, he barely played any 2B in the minors.
SS is the position that Gavin is most comfortable with. It will most likely help his bat, since that’s where he’s comfortable and not having to worry about the unfamiliar angles at 2B. They probably aren’t going to keep moving him around and CT3 is made to move around and has shown us for 9 years that he’s better off being a utility guy than an everyday guy. Go ahead and pencil in Gavin at SS. CT3 will play all over the field again next year and Vargas will split time at 3B and LF. Muncy will play 2b and 3b.
CT3 at SS – 1993 innings, 960 Fielding Pct, -5 DRS
Lux at SS – 502 innings, 968 Fielding Pct, +1 DRS
With Freddie at 1B picking his bad throws, will make Lux that much better.
Wow, Mark that was some education. I don’t understand your optimism about CT3 playing SS. Looking back I don’t remember him ever playing the position well when called upon. Now you want to hand him the everyday day spot after the season he had offensively.
“The Dodgers could do worse than have CT3 at SS. He was coming off elbow surgery last year, and without the shift, I look for him to have a better year offensively.” These two sentences are hilarious. Of course the Dodgers could do worse than CT3 at SS. That shouldn’t be used to validate an opinion. Then we have the recovery from surgery excuse. I call BS on that one. And, finally the shift elimination will solve his hitting issues. With CT’s contact rate and constant swing and misses the opposition could remove the entire defense from the field and it wouldn’t help with CT3’s hitting woes. To hand him the everyday SS duties and expect success is a huge leap of faith to me. He can’t make contact let alone hit a baseball and he’s never played SS for a prolonged period in the major leagues. Meanwhile, Lux and Amaya are not considered for the position.
I don’t like the JDM signing at all. For a team that emphasis flexibility it seems like an odd move by AF. It keeps another prospect in the minors. I would rather have seen AF sign McCutchen to play LF and have the experience to fill in at the OF spots.
As far as your bench players why would the Dodgers have Busch and Amaya on the 26 roster and have them sit on the bench? IF CT3 starts at SS I would like to see Amaya in AAA waiting to be called up when Taylor ultimately fails or gets hurt. And, same with Busch. With your 26 I would start him in AAA and use him as a trade piece at the deadline. He has no everyday spot to play with your scenario.
I think that playing Vargas in LF is a mistake too. So, to accommodate the JDM signing we have Muncy as the everyday 3B and Vargas as the everyday LF. Except when Muncy DHs or has an off day then Vargas moves to 3B. So you’re asking a prospect trying to improve his defense at one position to be moved to another position yet is expected to go back to that original position to fill in? Oh yeah and hit .275 with 20 HRs. That might not be a good idea.
I do like your six man rotation idea though. Whether the starting staff can stay healthy enough to pull it off is another story. There was a video I believe yesterday and B&P included where they talked about Syndergaard being a potential innings eater. With the Dodgers that’s darn near an impossible expectation. One thing the Dodgers don’t like or allow is someone to “eat” innings. They want to keep their pitchers well rested and healthy for the playoffs. Why? Has that reasoning ever prevented Roberts from pulling a “healthy and well rested” pitcher prematurely from a playoff game? If I never hear that sentence again would be OK by me.
So, Mark it looks like your projected lineup is what we will have to look forward to seeing to start the 2023 season. As a fan I hope you are correct in your assessment and the team has a successful regular season and maybe a championship postseason. If Outman and Vargas are the only prospects on the 26 man then so be it. It will still be fun and interesting to watch.
Carry on.
Be patient. Opening Day is 100 plus days away. AF and BG will probably make a trade that will clear roster space for some of the fore mentioned Dodger prospects and a chance to play in another organization. Never underestimate our FO.
I guess it is all in perspective. I see what JDM can do to this lineup, and it is astounding! He is potentially a guy who could put up Freddie Freeman-esque number.
I also look at CT3, who has played dramatically more SS than Lux. His fielding % is .960, while Lux’s was .942 in the minors. If you leave CT3 there, he will be solid and sometimes spectacular!
Anybody can learn to play LF. IMHO, it is the easiest position to play and Vargas pay will play in LA.
I totally agree about LF. If you’re going to hide someone on defense, it might as well be LF. JD can play some when Will Smith DH’s. Muncy is going to be in the field quite a bit. JD will also get some games off. The Phillies had some bad options in the OF and the Astros played Yordon there. Trayce and Outman can cover some ground in CF and Mookie covers ground in RF. Shift them both towards left and hope for the best.
CT3’s fielding percentage at SS in the minors was 950. He was called up as a 23 year old. Lux was a 21 year old. Lux is a better fielder, even Ray Charles can see that.
I think it is quite likely that the following minor league players will see action for the Dodgers this season:
1. Outman
2. Vargas
3. Stone
4. Busch
5. Miller
6. Pepiot
7. Amaya
8. Vivas or Leonard
There will be trades.
I am aware of nothing from the lips of AF or Roberts that has suggested that Taylor will be the starting SS. But the brass has certainly endorsed the idea that Lux will go back to his original position. They’ve expressed confidence in his SS abilities.
Nor have I heard something like, “We’re fine. Lux and CT3 will battle it out in the spring. And Amaya will get a good look too.”
A few weeks back, CT3 told an interviewer that the Dodger brass HAVE NOT discussed what position he is likely to play. Perhaps that has changed since, but I trust he continues to work out as a UT guy–and I expect that’s the role he is likely to play.
From all available evidence, it looks to me that current depth chart at SS puts Lux first and Taylor as his backup.
What evidence suggests otherwise?
Yes, the signing of JD could mean that Vargas gets pushed into the OF. There is PLENTY of evidence that Vargas will get lots of runway.
Best-case scenario:
— Lux plays SS and proves the doubters wrong. He gains confidence and it energizes his offense. (His first half in 2022 was excellent.)
–Vargas delivers on his potential, wherever he plays.
–Max makes a full recovery to pre-injury form.
–Outman and Trayce prove they belong.
I think we can count on Mookie, Freddie, Will and now JD too. He’s a professional hitter and should benefit from being around Von Scoyoc and Mookie.
The OF still seems a bit thin. Maybe Heyward still has something in the tank. Maybe a guy like Michael Taylor could help.
I am aware of nothing from the lips of AF or Roberts that has suggested that Taylor will be the starting SS.
Did anything come from AF’s or Roberts’s lips that suggested he was going to sign Thor?
AF puts out misdirection all the time.
Andrew and his team are professional talent evaluators and I do not believe a professional talent evaluator would EVER think Lux can play SS at a Major Leage Level.
That’s all I will say, but remember this…
I disagree with you on JD Ted. He is a solid hitter with a lot of power. He is being reunited with the coach who turned his career around, Yeah, he is 35, but his main job is to hit and drive in runs. Slot him in the four hole, he is a much better option there than Smith. I do agree on your evaluation of CT-3. He strikes out way too much for the kind of hitter he is. If he was crushing 40 bombs, we would not mind it so much. Now, I do think injuries played some part in his regression last year. The same way I know Bellinger was affected by the surgery on his shoulder and his broken leg in 21. Impossible for it to not have affected him. I think the jury is still out on Lux. We all need to at least give the guy a chance. He might dazzle us all with a huge spring and excellent fielding. You can bet your house he is probably working hard on his fielding right now because spring training is less than 2 months away. How this team will look come April when they break camp, not a single person on this or another site or blog can predict. Anyone see Heyward coming? How about the guy they signed today, Bradley Zimmer. CF who also got a minor league deal. Great defender, weak bat. If, and this is a huge if, they are really going all in on Ohtani next year, they should start using the 6 man rotation this year. Because him rotating between starting games and being the DH almost demands it. The Angels use it now.
FYI: Bradley Zimmer cannot hit and was signed to a Minor League Deal. He will likely be on the OKC roster.
Also, with the JDM signing, someone has to come off the roster. Is is Yonny (we hardly knew ya’) or Jake? I think they keep Jake!
I agree. Yonny was only cash considerations.
For roughly the same yearly cost as Dansby Swanson, we added Thor & JDM. Clearly looking for deals.
… and for JUST ONE YEAR. No long-term obligations.
I think it is quite likely that the following minor league players will see action for the Dodgers this season:
1. Outman
2. Vargas
3. Stone
4. Busch
5. Miller
6. Pepiot
7. Amaya
8. Vivas or Leonard
There will be trades.
Why did you have to remind us of Brett Anderson?
I’m not terribly excited about the JDM signing. It’s good. It fills a need. There is definitely a need to replace the right handed bats of JT and TT. He helps. He’s not really a replacement for TT’s bat. He’s gonna be a Designated Lefty Masher, and won’t play all the time.
Why can’t Lux play SS? That was his original position. He was drafted as a glove first SS and became a hitter. Is arm strength a limiter? I don’t think so. Is it range? Footwork? Lux’s defensive troubles all center around accuracy. He has had the “yips” in the past. I think he’s mostly over that, and I don’t think the “yips” are influenced by whether he plays SS or 2nd base. The yips are the yips regardless of the middle infield position. Yeah, SS is a more important defensive position, but I don’t think he can’t play SS.
I would rather have him at SS than CT3. People have short memories. Most of us were just as frustrated by CT3’s inability to hit and propensity to strike out as we were by Bellinger’s, and towards the end of the season he looked nearly as lost at the plate. He’s not a starter. He’s a super utility guy. We tried this already with Kike.
I’m curious to see what Michael Bush can do against MLB hitting, but I fear that he’s not much more than trade bait. He’s Willy Calhoun without the tree trunk legs. 2nd base was really the only viable place he’d play. I think Muncy takes that over when JDM DHs. Muncy was serviceable at 2nd.
I haven’t looked closely at the math recently, but with the Syndergaard and JDM signing, I think that puts the Dodgers over the cap IF Bauer is reinstated. I think the Dodgers really want to use this year to reset the cap, so I have to think the front office has a pretty good idea what the outcome is going to be. Like any good investor, you have to have good information. I think there may be some back channel discussions on the Dodgers getting off the hook with Bauer’s contract. Also, with the Syndergaard signing, that doesn’t really leave a spot in the rotation for Bauer even if he’s reinstated. What happens if he is? Can they trade him and assume maybe 15-20 mil of his salary? A team getting Bauer for 10 mil/year might be enticing … and it still might be just enough to just scrape under the cap.
And the Dodgers being retroactively responsible for Bauer’s salary last year just seems weird to me. People keep saying this is the case. Is this even true? I’m the first to admit that I have no idea, but I keep reading this. Do people just post stuff without knowing whether or not it’s actually true? I guess this is the internet, after all, so … yeah, people do.
I guess it’s Vargas at 3rd. Offensively it is definitely a downgrade from JT. I have no reason to doubt Mark’s inside scoop that JT’s bat just couldn’t keep up with fastballs at 37, but he was one of the best hitters in baseball in second half last season. I have no doubt there is a book on him now, though, and he was just overmatched against playoff caliber pitching. Time to move on, but would be nice to give him a proper sendoff. He’s been a beloved Dodger for a long time.
Of the deadwood the Dodgers got rid of, I was sorry to see Rios go. I think if he’d been healthy and given a full season he would’ve been a great platoon at 3rd with Vargas.
Mark, unless you come up with a legitimate name at shortstop, it will be Gavin Lux. Yes, no doubt Chris Taylor will get some time. But he’ll be needed to cover some left and center, depending on how this all plays out.
Jack Harris said in an LA Times story this morning, the Dodgers are intent on Miguel Vargas playing third, his best position. Where does that leave Max Muncy? Second base? Second and some third? Maybe on the trade market. The Dodgers really need a center fielder.
Playing Trayce Thompson in center seems a big of a stretch. Can he provide consistent offense? Does anyone really trust that to happen? His history doesn’t exactly offer reassurance.
Supposedly, the Dodgers are still interested in bringing back Justin Turner. But that would seem to confuse The Who Plays Where situation. Or maybe the Dodgers just want to move on thinking late season injuries are concerning.
Mark, you must have insight into the arbitration procedures. If everything is overturned, MLB should be responsible for any money owed when Trevor Bauer sat out. Maybe MLB has insurance to cover such a scenario. But it was MLB’s decision so it becomes logical they pay for that decision. They could have just left the decision with the Dodgers.
If Bauer does return for this upcoming season, no way they can stay below the tax, unless, of course, they reduce payroll through a trade. Muncy? Right now they are at $210 mil.
Or maybe all this get below the tax threshold is just so much talk. Maybe next year works better. Oh, but then there is Shohei Ohtani.
Tough to win and reduce payroll in this market. Especially with an unknown hanging out there. But they can reduce payroll enough so a bigger tax percentage won’t matter much.
I think the Dodgers will have an argument for a grievance in that they did everything they possibly could and were put at a disadvantage by MLB.
Bauer is not going to settle for “time served” or a reduction in his suspension – he is going to sue the ASS off MLB if he does not get the Suspension Rescinded!
Bank on it!
He may ultimately cost MLB their Anti-Trust Exemption if they go to Federal Court.
At 30 years old, there are two chances Ohtani becomes a Dodger: Slim and none!
Way too early to become consumed with 2023 OD lineups especially with the pending TB scenario along with AF’s penchant for late winter moves. Reset CBT, don’t reset, keep TB, trade TB, stashing nuts for Ohtani in 2024, who knows!!! sB mentioned we are currently at 210 mil leaving only 23 mil before the CBT and looks like TB is owed 32 mil for 2023. Hmmmm. Sit back with some Jack and coke and a nice T-bone steak and enjoy the show. As it stands now, this current roster is almost guaranteed a wild card spot next year and as good a chance to win it all (as usual) as any other team. That being said, it’s never too early to dream for next year and beyond. MT, thanks for the intriguing scenarios and research and here’s hoping TB hands Manfred a huge shit sandwich and see that pos, Manfred, take a huge bite!!! Would LOVE to see MLB lose their anti-trust exemption!!! Lastly, Merry Christmas!!!
VIVA AZUL
THUMBS UP!
Merry Christmas Blue. You hit the nail on the head. I know two things for certain, I am not getting younger and getting old is a bitch. Beyond that, I am certain of nothing! I look at it this way. The Padres and Giants have reloaded. But both have lost some pieces. Correa will bring a lot to SF and he is a far better shortstop than Crawford is. But now Crawford has to find a new position. Belt is gone, so is Longoria. Their outfield scares no one. Good defense in center, right and left a little more iffy especially when Joc is out there. Bart will be their main catcher, and he has yet to prove he is anywhere close to Posey. So they have holes. Their starting pitching took a couple of hits and they have replaced them with lesser arms. Webb is their ace. Their only ace. Beyond him, most of their starters are # 4 and 5 guys including Stripling and Manea who the Dodgers own. As for the Pads, they have the big three, Darvish, Snell and Musgrove. From what I have read, they plan to use Morejon as a starter and possibly Weathers. But the other candidates are kids. They still could trade or sign a free agent, but LA’s depth at starting pitching is better than SF or SD. The bullpens are close although SD has Hader and he is a proven closer. LA will most likely go with closer by committee. Dodgers have the edge over SD at first, RF, C, and even with Thompson out there CF. 2B is a tossup. Same with LF. Machado and Bogaerts give them the edge at 3rd and SS. The Giants don’t match up well with the Dodgers at any position except SS. It is going to be an interesting spring. We also now have a DH who crushes LHP.
Just FYI:
In his seven years in LA, CT3 has AVERAGED a .257 BA, .335 OB%, and .780 OPS. Gavin Lux OPS’ed .745 last year and has averaged .712 OPS in his MLB career. Yes, CT3 had a bad year in 2022… and most of you can only look at the last season. You seem to lack vision. CT3 will be back with a vengeance even if he strikes out too much.
I don’t think you can compare the two of them Mark. Taylor has played 259 games at short in his 9-year career. Lux has played 68. Lux has not even played the equivalent of two full seasons in the majors. Taylor has had 6 full seasons and parts of 9. Lux has a better fielding percentage at SS than Taylor does. I think injuries affected both players performances last season. Lux hit close to 40 points higher in the first half than he did in the second when he started having neck problems. He tanked the last month really bad. Taylor totally went in the tank after he was injured. So neither was the player they could have been. I believe the Dodgers are going to give Lux the time they think he needs to become the starting SS and Taylor will go back to being what he does best, being their super sub. MLBTR reports the Dodgers are hot on the trail of Seth Lugo. One of three teams wanting his services.
CT3 as a 24 year old. .170/.220/.223/.443
Lux at the same age. .276/.346/.399/.745
CT3 will be 32 next year and he’s going to take over at short after never playing a full year? Yeah, Mark. You have vision alright. Tunnel Vision. Not gonna happen. He’s a utility player. As a matter of fact, he’ll have more games in CF, LF and 2nd base than he will at SS.
Lux is not getting traded for a Center Fielder. If that happens, they would fill a hole in CF and create one at SS. That notion is beyond silly.
It’s really easy to see what the Dodgers did this offseason. They brought in a couple of veterans as insurance for the rookies. Vargas, Outman and Busch will all get playing time this year to see what they can do. They brought in JDM to replace Trea’s bat which is actually a better fit as a right-hander power threat in the middle of the order, instead of at the top. They have Vargas and Lux to go along with Mookie as possible table setters now. They also have plenty of options from a rookie filled lineup to a veteran filled lineup or a mix of somewhere in between.
They have locks in the lineup, Smith, Lux, Betts, Muncy, JDM, and Freeman. Now, they just need two or three of Thompson, CT3, Heyward, Vargas, Bush, Pages, Deluca and Outman to step up. Whoever earns a spot plays.
In 2020, CT3 played 20 (of 60) games at SS and had 1.000 Fielding%.
In 2021, CT3 played 23 games at SS, and his fielding % was .973.
Last year, he did not field any plays at SS.
So, maybe he is getting better. The stats say he is.
I thought you said the last thing you would say about this was 5 comments ago. Think what you want.
Last year Lux played short in 9 games 1.000 fielding pct. CT3 no games at SS. That should tell you everything you need to know.
* All this speculation is fun but there’s plenty of winter left for trades and deals.
As mentioned, SS job will be interesting between Lux, CT3 and Amaya. I wonder what Amaya would have to do in the batter’s box this spring to win the job?
* sbuffalo said “Playing Trayce Thompson in center seems a bit of a stretch. Can he provide consistent offense? Does anyone really trust that to happen? His history doesn’t exactly offer reassurance.” – I agree. I like his defense okay but I’m not convinced he can hit for an extended period.He did great when he first arrived last year and I hope he has finally gotten it together and found a home in LA. But he’s been with 5 teams in his 6 years for a reason. He’s a .221 hitter, doesn’t walk, doesn’t steal bases, doesn’t hit homers (.05%) and strikes out too much (35%). I hope that’s turned around or it’s Bellinger 2.0.
* We have a history of a revolving door at 2nd, which I find amazing and have written about previously. Here we go again. Now we add 3rd base to the mix.
We continue to be loyal to Max Muncy and seem to think that he’s a fixture that needs to be in the lineup. We all know he was coming off a serious injury too quickly and had a lost year in 2021. But I think the best spot for him and the Dodgers is for him to DH. I see him as a 1.5 tool guy. He hits for power and takes walks. He’s an average defender, at best, no particularly useful speed and is a career .231 hitter (.226 vs RHP). He strikes out at 30% rate. Now we acquire JDM, which I don’t mind, but he is a DH only. That puts Muncy on the field as a defender, unless he platoons as a DH w/ JDM.
Let’s consider what that does. Muncy at 3rd moves a highly regarded prospect in Vargas either to the bench of left field. Vargas will be in the running for an everyday job and he has close to 300 pro games at 3rd. He has 30 in left. Try to play him at 3rd and left? That move would be a big, quick learning curve for the kid trying to make the club. All to put Muncy at 3rd base?
2nd base could be Lux, CT3 or Muncy? Putting Max at 2nd blocks an opportunity for a nice looking prospect in Michael Busch and pushes him back to OKC for another year. Busch out of the picture to put Muncy at a 2nd base?
It seems to me this weakens the potential for the kids to blossom and see what they can do, all to accommodate a guy that is marginal defensively, will hit .230 maybe with 25 homers. I have no answers for Max’s roll but he’s not worth weakening our defense or restricting the development of ready prospects.
Except for last season when he was injured, Max’s Typical Offensive Season was pretty damn good. Other than the 20202 season and last season, when he sucked, he hit 36 or 36 HR a season with the best walk rate in baseball. Even with the bad year, his OBP for the last 5 years is .361. You can’t have an All-Star at Every Position. Max has flaws, but I would go to war with him any day. BTW, his WAR over the past 5 years is better than Justin Turner.
Muncy is signed for just 2023. Vargas can play LF for a year…
Max at third, Vargas in LF. Lot’s of foreshadowing last year with almost Vargas’ time in the field was in LF. Busch can earn a spot at 2B. If he doesn’t Max or Vargas to 2nd, the other to third, or CT3 plays second. Who knows? The defense is not going to be good next season. Kinda like the Phillies.
They aren’t paying JDM 10M to be on the weak side of a platoon.
Phil ,you are light years ahead of me in baseball knowledge,but we have a lot of guys that play infield and outfield.Coach Dave is great at finding playing time for everyone.I think he can work it out .Max is my favorite player!
I’ll apologize first that I’m going to leave a space between my thoughts, it might help me write better.
The pitching first:
I’m going to leave Bauer out of this because who knows.
I’d like to see the Dodgers go with a 6 man rotation to give Gavin Stone a spot. He’s ready. But I don’t know if the Dodgers will do that. And I don’t want the Dodgers to waste him in the bullpen. A 6 man rotation should keep somebody’s arm from falling off too, it’s a win-win situation.
The bullpen:
I’d like to see Freidman add 1 more GOOD reliever like the 4 guys I’m about to mention, but I don’t know if there is anybody on the market. I haven’t checked. That guy to join Phillips, Hudson, Almonte, Vesia. With a 6 man rotation that leaves 2 spots for whoever. Somebody on the 40 man roster is bound to emerge and have a good year, maybe 2 guys.
Position players:
I’m not a guy that gets concerned about the defense other than if somebody clearly sucks on defense.
Outman and Vargas graduated from the minors. Although I wouldn’t mind seeing Vargas in AAA part of the season, until he puts up EITHER ridiculously good batting average and OBP numbers OR he develops more power, but whatever. Busch didn’t quite graduate from the minors, but he came close, in my opinion. Clearly Gavin Stone graduated from the minors as I said above.
I’m not high on Martinez, but he’s good and I like him. Plus the 1 year contract at 10 million is a cheap price. Plus I’d rather the Dodgers build the team they need during the offseason, instead of waiting for the trade deadline when the supply is low and the trading price is high. That’s economics class 101.
I would like to see the Dodgers add another position player starter on the market, to push Vargas to AAA but not necesarily block him, and the perfect guy is Justin Turner, who will be cheap to add. Turner 3B, Taylor LF. If either one of those 2 struggle in the first half or so, and Vargas is putting up similar numbers that he did last year in AAA or better, then bring up Vargas and bench the one who is struggling between Turner or Taylor. You could add Outman’s (CF) name to this discussion too, but I think Outman is going to succeed and stick. By the way, I think Turner still has pretty good contact and on base skills, but declining power.
I guess Thompson is going to be on the roster, but I’m not high on him. I don’t think he’s going to put up similar numbers that he did last year with the Dodgers. I think he will decline back to similar numbers as his career numbers, maybe slightly better.
The lineup I’d like to see:
Betts RF
Smith C
Freeman 1B
Martinez DH
Muncy 2B
Outman CF
Turner 3B Still contact and OBP skills, declining power.
Lux SS Contact and OBP skills, but no power.
Taylor LF A lot of strikeouts that’s why he’s #9.
You might say why Smith batting second? 1 I’m expecting Smith to have a better year than last year. 2 I don’t believe in the old leadoff hitter way, all on base and speed with no power, and I’m talking about Lux.
You might say why Outman batting 6th? I would say he has power already and MIGHT get better. Lux has no power but might get better too, and Turner’s power is declining. 2 You might say Taylor has power, why not him batting 6th? I said awhile ago that I think Outman will put up similar numbers as Taylor, with the same number of at bats. So that’s a good arguement, why not Taylor batting 6th. OK either way. I personally favor Outman though.
If you notice I have 2 guys, Turner and Lux who have contact and OBP skills breaking up Outman and Taylor, who tend to strikeout.
Bench: Barnes, Thompson, ?, ?. It would be nice to get 1 pretty good hitter for the bench that is better than what I expect from Thompson. That leaves 1 more spot on the bench that I’m not concerned about, because there is a chance that in my senerio, Vargas gets called up and that final guy gets the boot.
Anyways that’s my 2 cents. Plus things can change from today all the way through spring training.
I do expect that AF will be sniffing out deals, and anything can happen, but I look for more action at the trade deadline.
End of an era. JT to the Red Sox. No details yet.
Thanks for the memories!
1 year 14 Million for JT
He also has an option year and he can opt out after the first year.
One of my all time favorites in my 48 years of being a Dodger fan.What’s next?
Favorites leave or get traded these days. JT’s fate was sealed the moment they signed Martinez. He is younger by just a hair, but has more power and is their DH this year. I felt like you do when Duke Snider got traded, same thing when Willie D left.
Wow so i guess Vargas really does get first crack at 3b
There is zero chance all of Bauer’s suspension is over-turned.
Zero chance he pitches for the Dodgers again.
Zero chance the Dodgers file a grievance
And
Zero chance that silliness came from anyone reliable.
Come on!
Your opinion.
Would you trade JT for JDM?
I would.
The Dodgers just did!
Justin Turner is hitting .198 since the start of the 2020 postseason (22-111 over 31 games). Subtract one 4-5 game (’20 WS G4) and he’s hitting .169.
Thank you for your service JT, but I’ll take JDM, please!
He has an option for a second year. 14 mil the first year, can be 22 mil overall. Good luck JT and thanks for all your great play.
For the second day in a row I wrote a fairly long post and then Martinez was signed and now Turner signs elsewhere. lol. I can’t win. It’s gonna be weird seeing Turner in a different uniform than the Dodgers. Even Bellinger too.
No need to beat yourself up. Much smarter people than you and I had them both going back to their teams. And some even projected Turner to sign with one of the Dodgers division rivals.
Thank you JT. You were a credit to the Dodger uniform! Both on the field and in the community. I will miss the red beard! Finish strong in Boston!
Good Dodger who I will miss, but it was painful to watch him walk. Looked like he was in constant pain and could no longer catch up to a fastball. Thanks for your leadership and wearing the Dodger with pride, character and competence.
I can see him back in Dodger Blue as a manager when Doc retires after winning back-to-back World Championships in 2023 and 2024.
JT is going to be missed, but time to move on. Wishing him nothing but the best.
In terms of the commitment to the youth movement that some of are projecting, I am a bit skeptical. Gavin Lux was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball at the time of his promotion. Yet, Dodger brass has eased his way into an everyday role. Neither Vargas, Outman, Pages, etc. are as highly touted as Lux was when he was promoted. To simply hand 3B, CF, or any other spot to an unproven rookie seems uncharacteristic of the Dodgers MO.
Connor Joe traded by the Rockies to the Pirates and Garrett Hampson signs a minor league deal with the Marlins.
Okay, after the dust over the free agent spending spree has ended with Swanson as the last of the big free agents available off the table here is my look at the Dodgers roster for 2023. I will make it short and crisp:
I like our pitching staff. A lot.
I do not like our lineup and the defense.
Lots of unproven guys (Vargas, Outman, Busch)and players trying to come back to their level of play of years long gone (JDM, Muncy).
Right now this team looks like a 85-90 win team. Not likely to win the West unless a lot goes right for us and a lot goes wrong for the team down south.
Dodgers clearly are tringin to reset the luxury tax and keep their ammuniton dry to go after Ohtani and /or Sasaki .
I am fine with that if that is the course they have taken.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They will win 95+ and win the west. After that its get hot at the right time….
It took a Herculean effort by SF to win the West in 21. SD aint doing that…..
Man Ill miss JT…. and why Boston? That franchise is right behind SF and Houston for me.
JT, thank you for everything and we are saving a spot on the bench for you when you retire and want to coach.
Play well in Boston and hopefully that team loses 150 games….
Thanks for the memories, JT!! You’re a class act and the epitome of a professional. Bless you and the family and best wishes making many, many dents on the green monster. BoSox suddenly looking like LAD East!!
SS is definitely a concern even more so than CF or 3B, Seems to me CT3 thrives more at the super utility role but Lux doesn’t instill a great deal of confidence either. Jose Iglesias anyone? Would love to see TT thrive in CF but as been noted, the trend says otherwise and there’s definitely a good chance that TB will pitch for us next year. We could definitely use another SP especially if the 6 man rotation is in play. We shall see what AF decides on all these issues.
VIVA AZUL