This is the Wackiest Offseason in recent memory for many reasons. The Dodgers are coming off a 111 win season with few holes to fill and a trio of potential rookies that are ready or very close to ready for the Show. Then the front office decided to create more holes by not picking up JT’s club option while also deciding not to offer arbitration to former MVP, Cody Bellinger creating a couple of holes while doing little to fill them up. Is this foreshadowing? Are they fully confident it’s Vargas, Bush and Outman time?
If you believe the rumors, the Dodgers were in on everyone, including all 4 big-name shortstops. 3 of them signed contracts that will pay them into their 40’s! Andrew Friedman did the right thing and passed on the dope fiend contracts. It seems that the new collective bargaining agreement created a flurry of big spenders without regard for any financial austerity.
- Jacob deGrom, at age 34 is coming off a 1.4 WAR season throwing just 64 innings while posting a 3.08 ERA. This earned him a contract of 5 years at $37M per year while paying him through his age 39 season after not pitching 100 innings in each of the last three years.
- Justin Verlander, will be 40 years old next season. He received a three-year deal paying him a whopping $43M+ per year for ages 41, 42 and 43. Few pitchers have pitched this deep into their lifetimes, and even fewer have done some without a little help. I’m looking at you Roger Clemens.
- Carlos Correa signed a 13 year deal with the Giants where he’ll be paid just shy of $27M per year and will pay him through his age 40 season. He played in just 133 games last season and the Giant’s top prospect is a SS. He hasn’t played in at least 150 games in a season since his age 21 season. What kind of genius re-signs a 34 year old shortstop after a career year, only to watch him lose close to 250 points in OPS the following year, then signs an often injured shortstop through his age 40 season the very next year? This is craziness!
- Xander Bogaerts also signed a contract that will pay him through his age 40 season, on an 11-year $25.5M AAV deal. This was after he put in his first good defensive season at SS and will play SS on a team that has 3 other players that play better shortstop than him.
- Trea Turner received an 11-year deal to play for the Phillies and his buddy Bryce Harper for 27+ per year. This contract also runs through his age 40 season. So much of Trea’s game is a result of his speed. How long is that going to last?
This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. I’m glad AF didn’t sign any player through age 40, much less a shortstop, one of the most demanding positions on the field. It’s extremely rare that a player will be good going into their 40’s. Look no further than our own Justin Turner who just completed his age 37 season. His offense peaked at age 32 and has been in a freefall since. Looking at OPS in each year beginning with that peak at 945 — 924, 881, 861, 832, 788.
Pitching Staff Outlook
On the pitching side of the house, the Dodgers said goodbye to Starters Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney. They also lost relievers Craig Kimbrel, Chris Martin, Tommy Kahnle, and David Price. Did David Price pitch any meaningful innings in his 3 years with the team? He’ll be remembered as the pitching version of Carl Crawford.
Tommy Kahnle threw just 12 innings for us last season. Craig Kimbrel was worse than Jansen was the year before and Chris Martin was very good for those 24 innings in a Dodgers uniform. AF replaced them with Jake Reed, Shelby Miller and, J.P. Feyereisen. This will probably end up being a wash.
The big signing of Thor will help replace Heaney and Anderson and I’m very bullish on this signing. Thor was once a big-name rising star and has always been much more talented than Anderson or Heaney. If they can do what they did with Anderson and Heaney, we could have another Ace on our hands. I mean, if you’re starting with better tools, the results should be even better, right?
Let’s not forget about all those minor-league pitchers and what they’ll add during the upcoming season. Ryan Pepiot did quite well in his first season in the show. Grove was serviceable and Andre Jackson was pretty damn good as a long reliever at the end of the season. None of them have the tools that Bobby Miller has. None of them were as dominant as Gavin Stone. The pitching staff is set.
Position Players and the Rooks
If you think Lux can’t play shortstop, you should watch this video…
Not only is Lux capable of playing the position, he’s capable of playing it better than the last two shortstops we’ve had. He’ll have a bad throw here and there, but he’ll make plays that Corey and Trea can’t. He’s rangy and has soft hands. I think the footwork on his throws is the only thing keeping him from being a great defensive shortstop.
If Outman is better than Belli and Lux is just a little worse than Trea on offense, we’re probably in good shape going into next year. I think there’s an even chance for that to happen and considering that Max Muncy will be back to full strength, the offense as a whole will be as potent as last season’s lineup with a little luck going our way. It will be better if Busch, Outman and Vargas perform near their minor league stats. But, if that trio can average a 750 OPS between them, the offense will be very close to last year’s.
My gut feeling is that the Dodgers will eventually bring back JT, unless a better option falls into their laps. This makes a lot of sense even if JT declines a little further. He’ll mentor Vargas at 3B and provide the Dodgers with many options to get the rookies going, or to let them sit and think about things when they aren’t going right.
Another Division Title
Objectively Speaking, the Dodgers are very close to the team they were last season.
The Starting Pitching is essentially the same. Instead of having Heaney and Anderson as projects to work on, they have Shelby Miller and Noah Syndergaard. Gonsolin, May and Urias are a year older and are still getting better and Clayton showed no signs of slowing down in limited use last season.
The Bullpen is better to start the season than it was last year. We don’t have an established closer, but it’s not like Craig Kimbrel was dominant at the end of the games last season. Phillips will be a step up if they choose to use him in the closer role and Hudson, Almonte and Vesia can handle the high leverage situations before the ninth inning.
The roster sits at 39 once the Thor contract is official. JT or another option will make 40. Feyereisen, Buehler, and Treinen will start the season on the 60-day IL, allowing the Dodgers to add Jason Heyward, Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller to the 40-man to start the season.
The resulting lineup has a lot of options and flexibility allowing the Dodgers to give the three rookies a runway without being over reliant on their success.
C – Smith, Barnes
1B – Freeman, Muncy, Busch, Vargas
2B – Lux, Muncy, Busch, CT3, Betts
3B – Vargas, Muncy, (Maybe JT), CT3
SS – Lux, CT3, Amaya
LF – Thompson, CT3, Heyward, Busch, Vargas
CF – Outman, Thompson, CT3, Betts
RF – Betts, Heyward, Outman, CT3, Thompson
Wildcards – Cartaya, Pages, Leonard, Vivas, DeLuca are all quality players that could jump the shark and pull a Belli arriving a year early. While I don’t think this will necessarily happen, it’s certainly a possibility that gets a whole lot better when you have so many young prospects that are so close to the highest level. They can also use some of them at the deadline to fill a need after trying out kids in the first half of the season. The result is they are in a great position to compete for the division while also resetting the cap for future spending with minimal penalties.
What is Elite?
There was a discussion about “Elite Prospects” the other day. This was more a semantics argument than a knock on the farm. Well, maybe it was a knock on the farm from the negative Nancys that tend to dominate sites like this one.
My point is that the term “Elite” is subjective in that it means different things to different people. Here are some points to consider…
- Elite MLB player and Elite prospect are not synonymous and one doesn’t guarantee the other. Max Muncy was not an elite prospect, bet he’s very close to an elite player overall. Jurickson Profar was once an elite prospect, but never came close to being an elite player. Aaron Judge is an elite player, but was he ever an elite prospect? His first full season was at age 25. Pete Alonzo was never higher than 51 on a top 100 prospect list, but has been one of the best first baseman in baseball for years now.
- To me, It’s easy to define an Elite MLB player. They have a game just for these players in the middle of the season each summer just after the 4th of July holiday. They’re called All-Stars. I guess to some, the bar is higher. But, when you’re one of the top two players at each position in each league, I don’t think it’s out of the question to be labelled elite.
- Elite Prospects are the best prospects throughout the minors. The ones that play in the Futures games or the ones that excel in the AFL are Elite prospects whether you think so or not. They are recognized throughout baseball as the best of the best. Not all of them become elite players and some don’t even become good players. But, that doesn’t change the fact that they were elite in the minors.
- If you argue that Gavin Lux wasn’t an Elite prospect, you don’t know what you’re talking about. He checked all the boxes and was the No 2 prospect in all of baseball, was invited to a futures game and won a Minor League Player of the Year award. It doesn’t get much more “Elite” than that.
- Lux started the season a little slow, hitting 255 with an OPS of 723 at the end of April and a 263 with an OPS of 682 at the end of May. In June, July and August combined, he hit 311/384/487/871 and was the 3rd best second basemen in the league behind only McNeil (Age 30) and Altuve (Age 32). Lux is just 24 and we haven’t seen the best Gavin Lux quite yet. In fact, just look to Trea Turner’s age 24 season and you’ll see a lot of similarities. Lux is the next Trea Turner.
- Andy Pages was a top 5 hitter in the AFL this past season, maybe top 2. He is a borderline Elite prospect, just turned 22 years old and has Elite power and an Elite outfield arm. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins a job out of Spring Training.
- Diego Cartaya is a year younger than Pages, he has elite power, and is considered the best or second-best catching prospect in the minors right now depending on which ranking list you choose.
It seems that AC is making this claim about elite prospects going by scouting grades which are usually established early on and never updated. Take for instance Miguel Vargas. His grades are Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 55 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55. I will point to his run tool. There is no way his run tool is still a 40. He’s more like a 55 and his field is more like 50 to 55. Those increases should be enough to make him an overall 60, putting him at borderline Elite. You can make a similar case for Busch. Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Arm: 45 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55. His Power, Run, Arm and Field have all improved since these grades were etched in stone. So where does that put him now?
Roster Outlook
The more I look at this roster, compared to last season’s roster, the more I like it. It may, or may not be the optimal time to reset the cap or turn to a youth movement. But, we certainly have enough young guns to keep it interesting. When you have so many good prospects that are this close to the majors, and are already on the 40-man roster, it should in theory, increase your chances that one or two will step up and deliver expectations.
Let’s say that the Dodgers call it quits right here, even though there’s one more vacancy on the 40-man roster.
The pitching staff looks like it can easily be as good, or better than last year’s. Gone are Kimbrel, Martin, Price, Kahnle, Anderson and Heaney. Enter Miller, Thor, Reed, V-Gone and Feyereisen.
The big losses on offense are Trea Turner, JT and Cody. Can an improved Max Muncy to go along with Outman, Vargas, Busch or perhaps Pages, Cartaya, Amaya, Vivas, or Leonard offset the lost offense?
Can the Padres and Giants make up the twenty-something games in the standings with their offseason moves?
I think people on this site will be pleasantly surprised to see the Dodgers competing at the highest level next season even if no further moves are made.
- Mookie Betts, Will Smith and Max Muncy all had down years last season. They should all improve to some extent.
- Freddie Freeman was a hitting machine. I would look to see him hit more HR than last season’s 21, but his average and on-base percentage might come down a little.
- Outman will absolutely be better than what we got from Belli last season. He can hardly do worse.
- Gavin Lux will improve, building on his success last season.
- Chris Taylor will be back to normal after a very bad year last season.
- Trayce Thompson will be a solid 4th Outfielder, but won’t put up the offense he did last season.
Busch and Vargas are two of the top hitting prospects in all of Minor League baseball. No one has ever questioned their ability to hit. The season may very well hinge on what they do on the field next season. If they don’t live up to expectations, this could be a long season. If they perform better than expected, this season will look a lot like last year.
Like Mark, I’m very excited about Spring Training this year. I might even be interested to go out there for another trip. It’ll be fun watching Vargas, Busch, Outman and Amaya getting some playing time this Spring and getting a preview of what the future looks like for this Dodgers team. There will be bumps along the way, but it will be a fun ride.
I like Lux a lot. In fact I believe he is going to outperform Swanson offensively. Lux’s best years are ahead of him. Where I differ from you is there is a good chance he is going to be a problem at SS, more specifically with his throws, and this could have a negative effect with his bat. The Dodgers would be better served handing him the 2base job and fill that SS elsewhere. Even if it means starting the season with Taylor at SS. I saw Lux play quite a bit when he was in RC. The bat is legit and he has a strong enough arm, but those throws! I hope I’m wrong but what I saw from him in the minors has carried to the majors. Hopefully, he matures his way out of the “yips” but “hope” is not a sound strategy in my opinion.
Shortstop will be extremely interesting. I am a fan of filling the spot in-house. I’m not in favor of a Swanson signing. Too expensive with what we’d give up while trying to get under the cap. (I know, it’s not a cap) I’m not convinced Lux should move from 2nd. The added defensive pressure might effect his bat, as well. CT3 obviously had a brief shot as the everyday guy for the Mariners but didn’t hit. He still can’t based on last season and strikes out to much for me. He might still have the chops to play short but I don’t see him as an everyday defender there anymore. I am a big Amaya fan and think he may be being overlooked and underrated by many fans here. I could live with .230 and his big league D at SS. I hope he wins the job in Spring Training leaving Lux at 2nd, CT3 utility possibly with Busch and Muncy in the batter’s box.
Completely agree with your assessment philjones. Why most here seem to assume the Amaya isn’t going to hit MLB pitching, but don’t express what average would be acceptable? If he can hit .220-.230 and excel in the field then the team offensively should be able to be OK. Look at some of the terrible offensive numbers the team dealt last year with yet they won 111 games. Not every player has to be an all-star offensively. Lux is always being included in trade proposals for what reason I don’t understand. It would not surprise me to see him an all-star if he stays at 2B.
No to Swanson considering the compensation and penalties required to sign him. So, for me it’s either Amaya at SS or Lux and let’s see what happens. If they fail at least the team will know what it needs to do at the position at the trade deadline or next year.
Bottom line for me is to give the prospects a real opportunity. Outman in CF, Vargas at 3B, Amaya at SS, Busch DH/2B. It could validate AF’s minor league system and development or be revealed to be a fraud. Let’s find out. It could be one hell of a story either way and fun to watch.
Carry On.
I guess no one bothered to watch the video.
OK B&P, you shamed me into watching the video. I have to agree with you that Lux looked comfortable at SS in AAA. If were to play SS that would give Busch a spot at 2B. I don’t know if Amaya can play any other positions, but he might work as a utility role. I don’t agree with resigning JT. It’s time to move on and let Vargas a clear path to 3B without JT lurking in the dugout ready to take Vargas’ position if he falters.
Anyway, your article was well thought out and gave us something to think about. I appreciate your efforts.
When I was playing I had a little problem on shorter throws where I had to hold back a little but longer throws were never a problem. Could the same be true for Lux?
I would give him a chance, I thought he did fine a couple yrs ago when he filled in for Seager.
He might hit for a higher average, but he does not have Swanson’s power. He might hit 16 long balls if he plays a full season without losing time to injury.
Great write up., I enjoyed the read and feel a little better about the Dodger outlook for next year. I hope they do bring back JT as it would look weird seeing him as a Marlin or with any other team for that matter. I hope the rookies produce like they are projected to,. I guess we will all find out together next year.
Good sum up BP – still think need good vet bat or two if the kids dont pan out as hoped. Realize we can run the kids out early and re-check at trade deadline but would rather have few more vets around. Doesnt have to be splashy – McCutcheon would be good add and can still bring it. Always like JD but stuck at DH , would take him for bounce back yr on reasonable K. If we dont add anyone else on offense put alot on freddie,mookie,wil,muncy – not much room for error.
Cutch, JD, JT. Hell, even Trey Mancini might be worthy of a bounce back.
I’m on a teeter-totter. On one side, I want a real good hitter for cleanup. On the other hand, I don’t want to block youngsters.
There’s a whole lot of talent that’s ready or very close right now. What if Vargas, Busch, Outman and Pages are all 800 OPS guys at the end of the season? I don’t expect that to happen, but I don’t think it’s out of reach either.
Look what Belli and Seager did in their first season. But, then again. It took Doogie and Lux a couple of years. Just adds to a very weird offseason.
Rookies are unpredictable…
Steven Kwan for the Indians last year slashed .298/.373/.400/.773 last year, not a top 100 prospect.
Same thing for Brendon Donovan for the Cardinals .281/.394/.379/.773, not a top 100 prospect.
Same thing for Michael Harris for the Braves .297/.339/.853, not a top 100 prospect.
If we got those numbers from Vargas, Busch and Outman. Our offense will be better than last year’s.
AF has shown if we need help at the deadline he’ll deliver. Let the kids have a shot! I’m excited to see how they pan out. I’m good with 90-95 wins next year and going to playoffs as an underdog! I think our pitching can carry us if healthy.
Andrew Benindenti and Whit Sox agree to 5 year deal.
I’m not sure if the word is out but it is reported on a few websites and his wikipedia page that Jeren Kendall has voluntarily retired from the game. He simply couldn’t hit once he reached the professional ranks. A lot of promise unfulfilled.
Kendall retired three years ago. He just never told anyone! 😉
Player salaries are are way up, but what kind of total payday is Boras getting?
“Boras is a great American sports agent with the net worth of $450 million as of September 2022.”
“As of April 2022, Scott Boras ‘s net worth is $480 million. He is the founder and president of Boras Corporation, a sports agency located in Newport Beach, He mainly specializes in baseball. Boras has nearly 40 years of experience as a sports agent. Forbes Magazine has considered Boras the ‘The Most Powerful Agent in the Sports World’.”
Joey Gallo signs with Minnesota. One year deal, $11 million.
Interesting: so you’re saying that those grades of run 45, field 55, etc don’t change yearly? I did not know that; good to know now!
Great stuff BP, but you forgot AF’s latest trade money deal with the A’s for Yonny Hernandez. Kid plays three infield positions. He does not have much of a stick but is considered a very good fielder. He will get a look in spring.
I commented yesterday on him being one of those guys that stick on the roster for a couple of weeks and gets cut as soon as they find someone better. They didn’t even buy him. It’s “cash considerations”. I doubt they consider send cash when he gets cut in two weeks. I don’t think he makes it to Spring Training.
Could be right, but he is the kind of versatile player they love. At least AF does. Just read where the Royals are making Michael Taylor and Hunter Dozier available. Could fill two holes, CF and third base.
Bring on the kids……..I’m really excited about having a youth movement this year. We have legitmite players in Lux Vargas Outman Busch and Pages. Most teams would kill to have these guys. Let them play and become what they should become, future all stars.
Let the games begin.
The Dodger web site shows Syndergaard as wearing #34. If that holds true, he will be the first player since Fernando to wear the number. No player has worn 34 since Fernando left the Dodgers.
That is sacrilegious!
Noah was 34 with the Mets and Angels and 43 with the Phillies. Pretty weird that the Dodgers would give it to him considering he’s a one-year player.
Couldn’t give him 43. That was Rios and they’re retiring that on opening day.
Just reporting what is on the web site. Fernando’s number is not retired, nor in my opinion should it be. They gave Garvey’s number to someone else, same with Cey’s and Lopes. And they even gave Hodge’s #14 to a bunch of players when I believed it should have been retired years ago and now it is.
Love this line whether intended or not:
My point is that the term “Elite” is objective in that it means different things to different people.
Bluto is elite!
Objectively?
Subjectively?
Literally?
Metaphorically?
I see 4 holes on the offense with 2 rookies on board (Outman and Vargas). The offense is definitely not as good as last year as it stands right now. But there’s Justin Turner still out there.
I see 2 definite holes in the pitching and 2 questionable holes too. 1 hole could definitly be filled by Gavin Stone who I believe is ready, but there’s no room for him in the rotation, unless they go with 6 starters and they should so nobody’s arm falls off. So the pitching if Stone is included would be about the same as last year maybe slightly better. But if stone isn’t included, at best the pitching is about the same maybe slightly worse as it stands right now. Actually all of that is about the same as last year, I was nitpicking until this last sentence.
If you’re gonna go with 4 holes with 2 rookies on offense and the 2 rookies fail, that’s 6 holes. Then the pitching better be top notch superb, better than last year and it isn’t right now as it stands. And I’m only talking about the 4 holes, not including the 2 rookies. If the 2 rookies fail, the offense is a disaster of epic proportions compared to last year.
I’m saying all of this because the Padres have improved to the point that they could win the division, leaving the Dodgers fighting for a wild card spot only. And with an offense that is possibly a disaster, I can see them not making the playoffs. Keep in mind there’s not going to be much if any difference makers at the trade deadline, because of how many teams now make it to the playoffs. That’s why you build your team in the offseason.
Oops, and all of what I said doesn’t include any possible injuries.
Okay, if the season started today, the lineup most likely would be something like this.
Lux SS L
Betts RF R
Freeman 1B L
Smith C R
Muncy DH L
Vargas 3B R
Busch 2B L
CT3 LF R
Outman CF L
What are the 4 holes you’re speaking of?
Not sure what you mean by 2 holes in the pitching. 2 holes in the rotation that consists of Urias, May, Gonsolin, Kershaw and Syndergaard? Or a bullpen that is Phillips, Hudson, Graterol, Reed, V-Gone, Ferguson, Vesia, Miller?
Remember that you were clamoring for Outman last year and Busch and Vargas are considered to be better by pretty much everyone.
Belli was so bad last year, below replacement level. So any change is basically addition by subtraction. JT was serviceable and Trea was very good (800 OPS), but not great. You don’t think it’s possible that a healed Max Muncy, Vargas and Busch can’t make up for the loss of JT and Trea? Not to mention the difference between Outman and Belli? Please explain your thought process.
Busch needs more time in AAA in my opinion. That’s 1 hole.
If that’s the lineup then you have 3 holes on the bench. Those are my 4 holes total. And I don’t care for Taylor as a starter but that’s not what we are talking about.
Yes I like Outman a lot. But you never know what prospects will turn out to be and that’s what I said. I said it as a maybe/possibility about Outman and Vargas.
Who you listed in the bullpen if those are the guys they go with then Reed and Miller are 2 holes in my opinion. And Feguson, Graterol, Gonzalez are questionable holes in my opinion. Nothing wrong with the rotation. And I like the pick up of Syndergaard just like you. I’m betting he has a good year.
T Turner is going to be a big loss in my opinion, I think you are underestimating that loss. And no the Dodgers shouldn’t have outbid what he got, but it tells you how good he is that he can get a contract like that.
Sorry it took so long to respond.
Wow. Did someone crap in your cornflakes!
It sounds like a classic case of Opticrectumitis. That is where a nerve in your eye crosses with a nerve in your ass and gives you a shitty outlook on life.
It sucks to live like that!
Myself? I am happy and optimistic, and if things don’t go as planned, then there will be trades…
But, if I had been a Dodger fan since 1847, I guess I would be grumpy too.
If you were a Dodger fan in 1847, impossible by the way since the franchise was not formed until 1890, you would not be grumpy, you would be DEAD.
awesome term, “Opticrectumitis”. As a collector funny, descriptive terms, I’m stealing this on to go along with terms like “boovation” and “cranial-rectal inversion”. Thanks Mark.
If that is so Eric, why are so many very important trades made at the deadline? And believe me, there will be plenty of difference makers available at the deadline. The Dodgers have made some blockbuster deals at the deadline, they also used to make important pickups before September 1st when they were still allowed to do that.
That has changed Bear with the expanded playoffs. Less options at the trade deadline. Pobably a bidding war because of it. Who says the Dodgers win that war if AF even wants to go that far.
Well, and apparently you are a troll.
Opinion here is somewhat less suspect than it was just a week ago and I see it as about time to get these farm kids their shot. Homegrown talent has always proven the best way to build a team as long as some vets are around to pass along how their suppose to act and represent. To not show up late and always work towards improvement to gain respect. The results I believe will prove Dodgers make baseball players better than any other team. This is why AF was brought to LA in the first place. These kids aren’t used to losing and not likely ever will. There’s no better spot for a shot. Will we have a ROY? I wouldn’t bet against it. I wouldn’t bet against Dodgers taking the division again We are nobody’s little brother! It’s time for the show!
That’s how I see it. Busch and Vargas are very good prospects and I don’t see it out of the question for them to put up OPS numbers in the 750-800 range. In fact, I can see Outman doing the same.
Outman has had Spring Training invites for a couple of years now and he opened my eyes. He seemed to very close to ready last year. Pages might even be ready at some point this year. I can also see them bring back JT if it makes sense. I can also see them kicking the tires on JDM (He’s younger than JT). Michael Conforto might be a good pickup as well.
Like Mark said, AF isn’t just planning for 23 but years down the road. That’s why the Dodgers aren’t the Rams. I’m comfortable with his eye for talent if he’s comfortable rolling with the rookies. You can’t sustain long term success if you don’t balance the payroll with cheap young talent. Roll Rookies!
This is a good read and I think very reasonable.
Re JT I have always felt they have a gentlemens agreement, “we want you and will sign you, unless you decide to go elsewhere. But we must wait to see how much financial room we have and roster spots. That might mean if you want to play one more year we’ll give you 2 yrs for the same amount to lower our aav”.
I wonder if there is a strategy AF has re waiting so long to make all these fringy depth moves?
Okay, Gavin Lux can play short.
Dodgers need another hitter and a center fielder would be a nice add. I do like James Outman. The strikeouts are a bit concerning, but I’m guessing he can produce better offensive numbers than Cody Bellinger. Outfield just looks a bit thin.
Not quite sure how the Dodgers stay under the tax threshold if Trevor Bauer and his salary return.
Some indication the Dodgers intend to sign Justin Turner. They can use his presence and his bat.
Maybe there is a trade out there, but it would appear that Miguel Vargas and Outman will start the season on the opening day roster.
Good write up, BP. I did watch most of the video.
OK, I too am over the hump on letting Lux play short, and seeing what Vargas and Outman can do as well. It will be fun to watch and cheer.
However, I am not as comfortable with Muncy and JT as most of you are.
The refrain with Muncy is “he’s healed and he’ll return to being productive.” That’s what we said about Bellinger. I hope I am wrong, but waiting all season season for Muncy to come around is not an option if we are going with the youth movement. Muncy can be a utility guy, but if he struggles hitting, mgt needs to have the fortitude to sit him.
I love JT, but not on the this team. His approach and work ethic are solid, but watching him limp thru the season and be hurt/unproductive in the playoffs is not acceptable for the LA Dodgers in a highly competitive division.
The Dodgers got maximum utility and amazing value out of a journeyman (Muncy) and a utility player (J Turner). Moving on now ensures we bought low, sold high.
I’m not the biggest Max Muncy fan. I think he’s below average everywhere he plays on the field defensively and I tend to not like the three true outcome types. I like lots of hits and extra-base hits and would gladly sacrifice some power for more hits. Freddie Freeman is my kind of player, although I wouldn’t mind having a few more bombs from him.
With that said, I also recognize that Max is a very good hitter, especially in the power department. For the most part, you can pencil him in for 35 bombs a year. He’s really the biggest HR threat we have on this team.
His injury at the very end of 2021 was very serious. He came back at the beginning of the season regardless. He didn’t have time in the offseason to workout and get ready for 2022. He was much better in the second half last season. Not, as good as he had been, but 15 homers and 15 doubles in 76 games is at least close to career norms.
Muncy is a dead pull hitter. I would think the shift ban will help. I can’t see him being not significantly better than last year.
I wonder if AF is starting to think about moving away from so many three true outcome hitters.
Heyman is reporting that the Jays and Dodgers were the other teams in on Yoshida when he signed with the Red Sox. He is the exact opposite of a three true outcome guy.
Vargas is another one who leans in that direction and they plan to give him lots of at bats next season.
Maybe things are starting to turn around.
Hopefully, that is the case. Plus the rumor that the Dodgers are going to work on decreasing strikeouts.
“Reducing 3 outcomes and fewer strike out guys”. While we’re at it, how about changing some other philosophies; increased contact guys sprinkled in the order especially, 7, 8 and 9. Maybe a switch hitter. Guys with some bat control who use the whole ballpark. Maybe emphasize and use some speed on offense. Play some small ball to pressure the defense. Bunt for a base hit to get a baserunner? You know, use some ways to manufacture runs during team slumps like we we fall in to, especially in the playoffs.
The Earl Weaver waiting for the three-run homer has worn out it’s welcome with me. Identify guys with the talent to change how we play and manage.
Justin Turner’s OPS and OPS+ were both substantially above league average last year.
True, he didn’t perform well in the playoffs. Neither did 90% of our other hitters.
B&P, good insight on Muncy, with his power it’s worth giving him a shot.
Shaikin is great here, the interviewer much less so:
https://twitter.com/mlbnetwork/status/1603997167529512960?s=46&t=YtRs7KY2Qnwle4Ic2cFD1w
You’re dissing Mad Dog?!!!!
?
More like bad dog.
Rabid Dog!
Can’t stand Russo. He is nothing more than a loudmouth. He brings zip to the table.
Good interview by Shaikin.
And yes Mad Dog was terrible. He is a giants fan. But he always tries to minimize the cheating of Astros in 2017. He rightly points out Dodgers lost two games at home in the series, that Jansen blew a save in game 2 and that Darvish was terrible in game 7. But he also claimed that Kershaw was terrible in game 7.
Actually, Kershaw threw 4 shutout innings in game 7 while working on short rest. Clayton pitched great in game 7 but the 5 early runs given up by Darvish and inability to hit cost the Dodgers.
Kershaw also pitched fantastic in game 1 of that series going 7 innings and allowing only 1 run.
And even in game 5 at Houston, he left the game in the fifth inning with two outs and a 7-4 lead, before Maeda gave up a 3 run homer to tie the game.
Kershaw gets way too much blame in that series.
And Mad Dog should know better than saying Kershaw pitched terrible in game 7.
The Dodgers need to get Brian Reynolds Betts and pout him in CF then put Outman and Heyward the two Lf and the Betts and MacCuthen in right field then the infield you have 3B Vargas and Muncy SS Lux and Taylor then 2B Taylor Busch Muncy 1B Freeman Muncy Busch and then C Smith Barnes DH Martinez Muncy Outman Taylor MacCuthen now that would be a mixture of rookies and veterans to have them four starting rookies that’s what I think need a centerfield this week AF.
A, the Pirates have said, and I really get bugged when fans do not read or comprehend what is written, that they have zero intention of trading Reynolds. B. If they do trade him, it would most likely be at the deadline when they can maximize their return. That is how the Pirates work. McCutcheon is ok as a 4th outfielder, but he is no longer an everyday player. Betts might move to center, and if they really feel he need, he might even move to second. They are though not going to POUT him in center. Leave the brainstorming and positioning to the experts.
OK, I’ll bite:
CHAPTER & VERSE:
What broken Arms and Broken Players has Friedman Saddled you with?
BTW, do you really think that by changing your fake name from Fan Since 1847 to MQAREP I don’t know who you are?
I know every foolish thing you post. Here they are:
You’re a Friedbrain and Roberts the Clown ass kisser.
Roberts the Clown doesn’t recognize tools. He also has no idea how to motivate his team. We will not win a “real” season WS and not even advance very far into any post season with Roberts the Clown as “manager”.
All you can do is call people names. You have nothing intelligent to add. You sir, are a Troll!
That Gonzalez homer off Jansen was an all time crushing Dodger moment! Up 2-0 we cruise to a WS win even with the trash cans!
Yep. The most blatant clue to them cheating though is game 5. Kershaw dominated them in game one. They swung and missed so many times on that backfoot slider of his. In game 5, they knew it was coming and they laid off of it. But all that crap is water under the bridge now. It was almost 6 years ago. Time to move on and forget it.
Yep! Tarnished the legacy of a great ballplayer and even better person!
“Mad Dog” Russo is the worst. It starts with the horrible accent and doesn’t get any better with his clearly biased analysis. Shakin was OK. Says Dansby is a great fit and backs it up talking about his friendship with Freeman. What the hell does that have to do with being a great fit? He’d be a great fit if he didn’t K so much and hit more homers batting 4th. He’d be a great fit if JD Martinez was already on the team handling cleanup allowing Dansby to bat second or 6th, behind Muncy.
They mention the loss of Martin, but fail to point out that he was only with us after the deadline for the last two months of the season. No big deal, the rest of the pen is intact. Better starting spot than last year. You can always grab a guy like Martin at the deadline. Maybe they can turn Jake Reed into Martin with an entire Spring Training to work with him.
Objectively the worst?
Too soon?
Well put, not too soon. Fixed, smart ass. 😉
Swanson to cubbies , takes care of that .. next
Cubs Finalizing Contract With Dansby Swanson
By Mark Polishuk | December 17, 2022 at 3:16pm CDT
The Cubs are “very close” to a deal with shortstop Dansby Swanson, and are expected to finalize the deal shortly, NBC Sports Chicago’s David Kaplan reports (via Twitter). The contract is a seven-year, $177MM deal that includes a full no-trade clause, according to Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports (Twitter link). Swanson is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Rumors have swirled since the summer that the Cubs were planning to sign one of the “big four” shortstops of the 2022-23 offseason — Swanson, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, or Xander Bogaerts. Some reports even suggested that Chicago could sign two of the shortstops, with an eye towards moving one player to another position (a la the Rangers inking both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien last winter). Initial reports indicated that Correa and Bogaerts were the Cubs’ top options of the group, but during the Winter Meetings, Swanson began to emerge as “perhaps their most realistic target .
Interesting about the Cubs and Swanson. If true, that might move Nico Hoerner to 2nd and leave Nick Madrigal available to somebody. We seem set at 2nd but somebody will be interested. If Nick can stay healthy, he has the ability to be a .300 hitter with zero power but never strikes out. He’s 25 with a bright future for somebody, I predict. I’m still amazed the White Sox parted ways with Madrigal after he had a severe hammy injury. A future with Anderson and Nick up the middle looked promising at one point.
I’m just tickled to not part with 25 million a year for 7 years, no trade and loss of draft picks for .270 and 15 more homers a year than we can get from guys we have.
Dansby to Cubs. Glad we keep our picks and internal signing money..
It’s official. Bring on the kids!
JD Martinez to Dodgers for 10 mil, Jeff Passan
JDM signed to 1 yr 10 m contract. Don’t like it and probably means goodbye to JT.
JD Martinez probably eliminates Busch from at least starting if not making the team and that is good to me because in my opinion he needs more time in AAA. That is if this signing is true.
1 less hole in the offense and I don’t think this eliminates Justin Turner from signing. Martinez DH, Muncy 2B, Turner 3B and as it stands right now if Turner signs Outman CF, Vargas LF, Taylor on the bench. Or switch Taylor and Vargas.
I’m not exactly high on JD. But 1 year for $10m? I’ll take that. He can’t really play defense. But the bat is an upgrade over Bellinger.
Lux
Betts
Freddie
Smith
JD
Muncy
Vargas
Taylor
Outman/Amaya/Hayward or a FA.
Given that we won 111 games with a CF who hit .200, this isn’t a lineup that is that much worse than last year. A lot depends on the Bauer situation being settled. AF has a history of making moved in Jan and Feb. if only the Dodgers knew how much payroll they actually will have on the books. We might have to wait until the deadline to fill in the final pieces. But I’m ok with where we are at.
I wouldn’t like the JD move if it wasn’t for one year and dirt cheap. That’s low risk as it gets.
Yes the price for Martinez is a good deal for the Dodgers. Martinez still makes good contact/batting average his OPS dropped last year but who knows it could have been a fluk year and he’ll get it to above .800, maybe .825 or slightly higher. And yes Martinez is an upgrade over what we got at 2 OF spots.
Even in a down season he had 40+ doubles. Bellinger had 27. This does force Muncy on the field. And we still need a CFer. But this mitigates the loss of Trea considerably.
I would rather see a pure slugger like JD in the four hole than Smith. I think Smith is a very good hitter and he has decent power, but he scares nobody. Martinez will.
This is excellent news.
Time to move things on.
We got JD Martinez!
On a side note, it makes me sad that Jeren Kendall retired. Certainly the right move. But he was one of my sons favorite players ever from Rancho Cucamonga. An incredibly nice guy. He was always great to my kid. It became an ongoing joke between 2018 and 2019. Before each game (while the players were warming up) my son asked him if could get a bat if he broke one. Jeren always said “I got you” and gave him a fist bump. My son probably asked at least 20 times. He just never seemed to break a bat (you generally have to make solid contact for that to happen).
Finally, sometime in mid summer 2018, Jeren hit an easy fly out. My son came running up to me about as excited as I’ve ever seen him. “Did you hear that? Did you hear that?!! That bat is broken”. He was right. After the game Jeren gave him the bat, signed it and personalized it. It was a generic Old Hickory maple team bat that only had “LAD” inscribed on it. It has never been worth more than kindling. But it’s one of my son’s favorites. He never worked so hard to get a piece of memorabilia. Sometimes value isn’t measured in monetary terms.
Jeren was rated the best athlete in Dodger system for years. He was a top 10 prospect in the system directly after the draft. 1st round pick out of Vanderbilt. Gold glove level CFer. Just goes to show, baseball is really really hard.
A lot of very good players never make it. I am just glad he realized he was not going to achieve his major league dream and moved on. It is great that he treated your son the way he did. Proves there are some good young people out there in this craphole world.
Does Muncy go to third or second? Vargas and Busch should be shagging some fly balls this off season.
If they want Vargas to be in the game, Muncy moves back to the position he likes the best. 2nd base. Vargas is going to get his shot in spring to lock down the position. If he blows it, they have options, Busch to second, Muncy to third, but they do not want to get too lefty heavy in the infield. if that happens, and Muncy has to play third, all four infielders would be lefty’s.
JD killed left-handed pitching in 2022, with a .998 OPS and OBP at about .400.
I assume he’ll be a full-time DH, but it could be a platoon.
Interesting offseason. No big deal, but now three veterans to fill three needs: Thor as SP, JD for the bat, Heyward for OF.
I wonder whether JD’s deal means that JT will be moving on.
I’m ecstatic to have JD instead of Cody and he can be our DH. For 10M is better than what Cody is making. Smart move…..
I love Thor….
Sad to see Dansby go to Chicago and I don’t have warm and fuzzy feelings about Lux, but it is what it is.
Well we may as well face it, Lux is the SS, Only thing that will change that is an injury. Because realistically, there are no real viable options left in free agency, and the chances of trading for one are pretty slim. Now, they could ask the Padres for Kim since he most likely is the odd man out in San Diego.
I’m still holding on to hope that we get a Jean Segura type of hitter for short stop. I wish I could say I’m ok with Lux at ss.
There are no SS left on the free agent market that fit that bill. Segura is a free agent, but he mostly plays second now.
We don’t need a SS. We have one.
It’s not who you think!
Have you ever seen Alana take Mad Dog to task? She is not afraid to stand up and tell him he is wrong, wrong, wrong!