The criticism of Andrew Friedmans lack of off-season moves is being read in social media circles and blogs like there’s no tomorrow. Many fans are expressing their opinions without a clear understanding of the ramifications and penalties levied to teams that sign free agents. I entered in a mini heated debate with a respected writer the other day who is insistent that the Dodgers sign a top tier free agent. I was shocked to read in his response that he was unaware of the penalties the Dodgers would face for signing said player. Below is a reminder to LADodgertalk readers who I am convinced are the most cerebral Dodger fans around.
According to the latest collective bargaining agreement, if a player signed via free agency received a qualifying offer from their team of departure, (Dansby Swanson falls under this situation). The team that signs him will lose draft picks. Where they lose the picks depends on the team’s previous year payroll. If the team exceeded the luxury tax the previous season, which the Dodger did, they lose their second and fifth selections in the draft as well as $1 million from their international bonus pool for the coming year. This is a huge price to pay for a top tier free agent. In some cases, it is worth it. I don’t believe that to be the case with Swanson, Carlos Rodon or any other remaining free agents available.
On Swanson
So many discussions are being bandied about regarding the possible signing of Dansby Swanson. MLB network just had a segment on the remaining free agents and two of the three commentators predicted that he signs L.A. This is short-sided analysis. If with the Dodgers are really seriously considering Swanson, it’ll be a big mistake.
A reset on the competitive balance tax is necessary for this organization. Financially they still sit in in an unsafe situation as a Trevor Bauer ruling that reinstates him with back pay could place the Dodgers at a payroll level above the established threshold. The 2022-23 off-season is the time for that reset.
The loss of two early picks and international signing bonus money would be a huge setback. If a move must be made for a shortstop outside the organization, let it be via trade. I know Swanson and Freeman are friends, but that needs to be pushed aside and a decision for the good of the franchise needs to be made.
Will we see a spring training invite to a player like Andrelton Simmons on a minor league contract? Something similar to the Jason Heyward invitation might be the move they make. Simmons is still solid defensively. I still prefer in house solutions that include, Gavin Lux, Chris Taylor or a minor league option such as Jacob Amaya.
The Syndergaard Signing
Noah Syndergaard did not receive a qualifying offer to stay with the Phillies, so his signing does not penalize the Dodgers.
Year two after Tommy John surgery is usually the “fully recovered” season. There is no holding back. The confidence to let it air out returns. I get the sense that Syndergaard will have something to prove in 2023. It looks as though the right hander has accepted a below market offer to bet on himself that this will be a breakout year that could result in a big contract for him next year. He is only 30 years old. Add the fact that he will be pitching in a pitcher’s park and with a top tier team, this is a good fit for Syndergaard.
The Dodgers will have Thor slated as their number 5 guy. This is a testament to how strong their pitching staff is. A year ago, we hardly questioned who Tyler Anderson was and didn’t even noticed his signing. Today, fans are complaining that Anderson has left and meanwhile the Dodgers have replaced him with a solid starter with a proven history of success. Syndergaard’s velocity is down a tick, but that shouldn’t be a concern. His heater is still in the 94 MPH range instead of his high a few years back of 97. Perhaps another year post surgery will result in the old velo he used to have, (as well as a rise in his K-rate, that also went down). A year under the guidance of Mark Prior should also help.
Some call this another dumpster dive move, but it is hardly that. $13 million plus incentives for one year is a fairly reasonable contract in today’s free agency environment. The deal is a wise short-term move, though I wouldn’t mind seeing some of the kids getting a shot.
Feyereisen
Another Friedman acquisition on Tuesday of interest was with Tampa as the Dodgers dealt minor league lefty Jeff Belge for JP Feyereisen. This is similar to the Tommy Kahnle signing the Dodgers had a few years ago. Feyereisen has a shoulder injury that should keep him out most of the season and is recovering from surgery. Look for him to sit out 2023 and comeback in 2024. He is under team control until the 2026 season. Belge pitched in the Dodger organization at high A Great Lakes in 2022 and is slated to move up to AA ball. He was not ranked amongst the top 50 Dodger minor league prospects, but Tampa saw something of promise in him.
Left Field
A few free agent options remain but it is doubtful that a move of significance will be made if it is for high dollars. I’ll throw these names out there though: AJ Pollock and Jurickson Profar. Doubtful that they are considered, but they remain available. There are valid reasons why Jason Heyward is being given a shot. First, because he’s dirt cheap, and second, because he may have the motivation to show the world that he isn’t washed up. Also, it has low risk/high reward potential. There are numerous in-house options available as well, so if Heyward fails to impress in Spring Training, the minor league prospects remain in place.
It is still early
It is important to remember that there are still two months until pitchers and catchers report, so Andrew Friedman is likely not done dealing. As he watched the dust settle on massive free agent contract signings around winter meetings time, an assessment of organizational needs and the dozens of remaining options was undoubtedly made. We speculate on potential deals for guys like Reynolds from Pittsburgh, and Friedman probably has something in mind that none of us have even thought of. Sometimes the best moves are the ones not made.
Fans will gripe and fuss about what they perceive as an inactive front office but that is hardly the case. When you consider they are hamstrung by the Bauer appeal decision, the Dodgers have actually been quite active with prudent, low risk deals thus far. West Division rivals have made significant strides and improved, but this is no time to panic. The Dodger roster as currently constituted is still a 90+ win team.
“Financially they still sit in in an unsafe situation as a Trevor Bauer ruling that reinstates him with back pay could place the Dodgers at a payroll level above the established threshold.”
Please expand: are you saying if he’s reinstated, we’d owe him for 2021 and 2022? Didn’t he still get paid for those years? And this pay would push us even higher on the salary charts for back years? So we’d owe back taxes?
Nobody knows, until a decision comes down.
If Bauer is reinstated partially or completely, I think how the Dodgers want to get along with the Commissioner’s office will dictate what they will do. The Dodgers did not suspend Bauer- Manfred did. I know what I would do, but I am not the Dodgers.
I thought he was paid while on administrative leave. So, they may need to pay back taxes for the period he’s actually been suspended? Not in the current period, so it wouldn’t count against this year’s tax. If the back pay is for last year, it would land on that tax period.
Excellent article Evan, I congratulate you for the focused, realistic and objective analysis, thank you very much, I have a question for you, do AF or the property in general put any kind of pressure on the commissioner to resolve the TB situation? I believe that this uncertainty causes loss of opportunities and ultimately money for Dodgers, thanks in advance for your attention.
Hello Jose Luis, your question is definitely a good one and something to which we really don’t know the answer. If there is one thing the Friedman administration does, it is they keep internal discussions “in house.” You don’t see leaks from the Dodger organization and I assume that if there are internal discussions with the Commissioner’s office, they are on the condition that they stay confidential. Perhaps others may have further insight.
I could be wrong, but, I don’t think you’ll see the Dodgers ink Dansby Swanson. Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor can play short. The cost of acquiring Swanson would be too high and the return too small. They could use a center fielder though. I’m guessing that is the priority.
Right now, the pitching, both starters and bullpen look to be elite. The depth is better with Thor on board.
But the offense, without Trea and maybe JT, is not quite as good. A lot may rest with Miguel Vargas.
Still look for Friedman to work a trade to boost the outfield. You’re right, there is still plenty of time.
A lot of fans may be having anxiety. I’m sure Friedman is not immune to all that, he even admitted it during a recent interview. But those who wait for things to unfold often win the big prize.
Dodgers obviously are trying to clear as much payroll as possible while still remaining competitive by giving some of our blue chip prospects really good looks.
All signs pointing for them going hard after Ohtani and/or Sasaki next offseason
I am fine with this direction they are taking.
Rather than LUx or CT3 at ss I would give Amaya a good look. Kid is a defensive whizz, gold glove caliber and his hitting has come on in the last weeks of last season at AAA. Freeman, Lux, Amaya, Muncy would be a well above average defensive infield .
CT3 can remain the super utility player where he is best.
A trade for Reynols is something I would look into as well. A combo of Pages, , Bush, Grove plus another lower level minor leaguer migth just to it. However I would not give up Miller, Cartaya for him.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dodgers have signed Adan Kolarek to a minor league contract.
Dodgers trade with the A’s for infielder Yonny Hernandez. Plays three positions in the infield. Not a power hitter, as a matter of fact, not much of a hitter period. But he walks a lot, and rarely strikes out. Also if they want to really think ahead, Japanese slugger, Munetaka Murakami will be posted after the 26 season when he will be turning 26. He has hit 160 homers in his four years in the JPL. He hit 56 last season, breaking Sadaharu Oh’s record for a Japanese born player.
Middle infielder Jeter Downs got DFA’d by the Red Sox. Strikes out too much.
He was a guy the Dodgers got from Cincy (with Josiah Gray, I think) and became part of the Mookie deal.
I hope he is able to hook on somewhere, perhaps with the Dodgers.
Downs, Gray and Homer Bailey in the trade that send Kemp, Puig, Farmer and Wood to the Reds.
With the power of hindsight.
A ludicrously good trade.
Conforto, Brantley or Benitendi seem viable options for left field.
Good article but your statement about Thor’s fastball sitting 97-98 is incorrect. His fastball averaged 94.1 in 2022 and he didn’t throw a single pitch over 96.4. His velocity did tick up in October so that is a positive sign.
Hello Kpizzle,
You are right. Sloppy work on my part and I apologize as I should have dipped into websites that analyzed Syndergaard’s repertoire of pitches in further detail. During post season play, when he had poor to average results, his fastball ticked up to 95.1 MPH, but it wasn’t near his pre-surgery average of 97.
His 4-seamer was thrown only 14% of the time and his
High velocity sinker was thrown 31% of the time. The slider, curve and change were all in the high 80s velocity-wise, so there was a speed differentiation of 6 or 7 MPH. I’m afraid I made the common mistake that a lot of fans do and that was by being infatuated with the radar gun. We all know there is a lot more to pitching than speed, but it has always seemed to be a measure we look at, especially when a pitcher returns from major arm surgery.
Personally, I would be ecstatic with Swanson and really don’t care about the money or draft picks. Swanson is a beast and look how this will encourage Freddie to have his best friend.
We don’t need all these draft picks…we have enough and besides, don’t we have plenty of guys in the minors waiting to get a chance?
Now is the time to make your move for the present is here for the taking.
You actually do need those draft picks so that you can keep the systems “Loaded” Those draft picks take 3-6 years, so you always keep building so as to keep a sustainable winning model. Some flame out, some get traded and some make it. You have to keep on re-loading… if you can.
A guy who strikes out 180 times and his best seasons have a mid .700 OPS is NOT a beast and not worth 25 mil a season in my book!
Agreed. Dansby fills a hole a short, but doesn’t really solve a problem. We can certainly fill the hole at short with Lux. The most logical upgrade to me would be left field if they can find that 800 OPS they can count on. That’s not Jayson Heyward and he’s on a minor-league deal for a reason.
Did the Red Sox cut Doogie yet? Maybe they’ll pick up Doogie when arbitration rolls around. 😉
Stop it before you start, Mark! It was a joke!
He was at his best with runners on base. Remember how many times the Dodgers didn’t score with the bases loaded last year? Here is Swanson’s line with bases loaded. .600 .636 .800 1.436
https://www.mlb.com/player/dansby-swanson-621020?stats=splits-r-hitting-mlb&year=2022
He also played outstanding defense last year.
I want the Dodgers to reset their CBT payroll this year. I also want them to trade Bauer if he becomes eligible. I don’t get everything I want.
To make payroll room for Swanson, I would entertain dumping the salaries of one or both Taylor and Muncy via trade.
Cassidy, we’ve been spoiled by Seager and Turner the last few seasons, but prototypically defense is prioritized at the SS position. To keep things in perspective, Correa has a career K rate of over 20% according to fangraphs. I don’t see Swanson as an elite SS, but he’s definitely in play in that second tier along with Willy Adames whom the Dodgers were rumored to have interest in a potential trade with the Brewers. Keep in mind Adames has a career K rate of over 28%. Having said that, does K rate depict a player’s overall value? Not in my opinion. According to fangraphs, last season Swanson was second in WAR to Lindor at the SS position. I realize defense is heavily weighted in WAR, which in my opinion SS is one of the few positions where it is ok to prioritize defense.
Good article Evan, but I find it interesting that for the most part fans are more protective of draft picks than prospects. If given a choice, I would gladly punt picks than already established prospects that teams are likely to request in potential trades. Of course, unless there is a specific prospect that our scouting department is targeting. Then again, our first draft pick is not high enough to establish that type of projection.
Still don’t think Swanson is worth long term, 25 mil a year contract that he’s gonna get! Even at his best much less down the road as he ages. I think AF passes
Think there’s any chance Swanson hold up his decision to see how things shake out with Bauer ? If Bauer re-instated we’re close/over threshold anyway let’s be pigs and get Swanson . Think he will be solid and age well.
Also – ‘F’ them picks ! deep enough farm to weather losing few late rounders.
Hey we need those picks for the Devers trade with Boston.
would love Devers at 3rd but he’s getting his bag w bosox.
That is where AF is different from the fans. He is building a team for 2023 and 2029… and everything in between.
Has AF shown any evidence that he is interested in going outside the fold to get a SS this year ? With any seriousness?
Can someone tell me why the Dodgers would owe Bauer backpay? Isn’t he set to make something like 32 million if he plays this year so why is the number 60 being bandied about? ☺
KLD, I believe it is because if the appeal comes back and says that Bauer was wronged, he could get retroactive back pay that covers the salary he failed to receive last year. How that affects the CBT threshold for last year I don’t know. Is it possible they would count what he gets all for the coming year? That could be around $60 million. The appeal decision poses a lot of questions and from what I can tell, no one is talking about it publicly.
I’ve asked that question twice. People just throw that out there like it’s a foregone conclusion. I don’t think it is. The Dodgers might owe him for last year, but unless it is stipulated that a league suspension and revocation of that suspension places the entirety of the prior financial burden on the team that signed the contract, I’m not buying it.
The Dodgers and Bauer entered into a contract. The Dodgers would pay Bauer in exchange for his services. The league stepped in and suspended him, denying them their contractual right to his services. Why would they then have to pay retroactively for services not rendered? The league interfered with the contract. It nullified it.
… BTW, I think the Thor signing is a signal on how the Dodgers feel about a possible Bauer return. I don’t think they expect it. I don’t think they want it. It’s all just a big PR headache that no business wants.
And does anyone here even really want him back? He hasn’t pitched in about two years, and even when he was pitching, with Spidertack getting outlawed, his performance (spin rate) started to dip. You’re not going to be getting Reds Cy Young Bauer.
What would it take to get B. Reynolds from Pittsburgh? Would a combo of Gonsolin and Pages be enough?