Just how good were the Dodgers in 2022? Well, of course, they were bounced in the first round of the playoffs, so that is all many of us remember. However, a lot went wrong throughout the year. Consider this:
- How many teams could win 111 games and have their ACE pitch in just 11 games before losing him for the season?
- How many teams could survive having their closer implode and have their backup closer miss almost the entire season, and then the backup, backup closer blow out his knee and still win 111 games?
- How many teams could have their Centerfielder and Thirdbaseman (who were generally counted on to be 30+ HR hitters, hit below the Mendoza line most of the year?
- How many teams could lose one of their TOP 3 starters who had previously won the Cy Young for the season?
- How many teams could have two more of their starters go on the IL twice and miss about 40% of the season?
- How many teams could lose their best starter (statistically) for two months and still win 111 games?
- How many teams could survive having their team leader (Justin Turner) hit within the Mendoza Zone for half the season?
- How many teams could survive having their main utility man strike out 160 times?
Ask yourself how any team could survive any of those events and still win 111 games. Then ask yourself how a team could survive ALL of those and win 111 games. I think it’s pretty amazing what they did in spite of all the adversity. If that isn’t a testament to their depth, I don’t know what is. But no one cares about depth… they want World Series Titles.
The Dodgers have the best record in baseball since Andrew Friedman arrived but only one World Series Title to show for it. Houston has won two World Series Titles in that same span, but do I have to remind you that one was stolen? Would fans feel differently if the Dodgers had two titles and the Astros had one?
We have learned that the team with the best record in a season only wins the World Series 20% of the time. Best Regular Season Record and World Series Winner are two different animals. I hear fans say that “Friedman needs to build a team that can win the World Series.” How do you do that? I would love for someone to explain that to me, because if try, you will look really silly. HELLO! Did I mention that the team with the best record in the regular season fails to win the World Series 80% of the time?
You build the best team that you can with the resources that you have. The Dodgers had a lot go wrong in 2022, and now it appears they could be on the cusp of a youth movement. As a 60-year Dodger fan, this is the best ten-year stretch I can remember. Yes, I would like to win the World Series every year, but being in the running every year is better than what most teams have! The Dodgers are a diversion or hobby for me… I was upset for a few hours after they lost to the Padres, and then I was planning for 2023. Life goes on…
The Cody Bellinger Situation
Cody Bellinger is not officially gone. It is possible that he could re-sign with the Dodgers, but those odds certainly diminished when the Dodgers failed to non-tender him. Is Cody hurt? Did he get his feelings hurt? Is he mad? Does he feel he has been treated unfairly? Does he feel he needs a fresh start? Does he love being in LA? How does he feel about his teammates and coaches? How do they feel about him? There is a lot we don’t know, and many fans assume Cody is as good as gone. The fact is, “We do not know most of this.” Therefore, we wait. The only competition the Dodgers face to sign Cody are 29 other teams. The Dodgers say they still believe that he can get back to what he was, and maybe AF has an incentive-based deal in mind. There is a reasonable chance that the Dodgers have not seen the last of Belli in Blue.
Is it possible for Trayce Thompson and James Outman to enter Spring Training as the Starting CF Platoon? Sure it is! It’s possible that they could provide good defense and hit 30+ home runs combined for about 10% of what Cody Bellinger would have cost. I do not think Aaron Judge is a possibility, but I do believe AF will blow out that smokescreen.
Let me throw out a crazy scenario: What if Brian Cashman goes to Andrew Friedman and says, “We want to sign Aaron Judge, and while we know that the Giants will be involved, we would like for you to say out of the bidding, and we will make you a sweet deal to stay out of it. If you send us two Top 30 Prospects, we will send you Giancarlo Stanton and $60 Million in cash, as long as you stay out of the bidding for Judge.”
Stanton is owed $160 Million over the next five years. The cash takes it down to $100 million or $20 Million a year for Stanton, who gets to come home and be the Full-Time DH (so as to keep his injury opportunities to a minimum). Yes, he is 33. Yes, he had his worst year in OB% and BA. However, has likely has a few good years left… especially if it is exclusively as a DH. Then the Dodgers can make a big push to sign Xander Bogarts. I think he is a better hitter than Trea Turner; he will be cheaper and will transition to 3B in a couple of years and play until he is 40 (he has that kind of body). Check this out:
- Betts RF (R)
- Lux 2B (L)
- Freeman 1B (L)
- Stanton DH (R)
- Muncy 3B (L)
- Smith C (R)
- Bogaerts SS (R)
- Vargas (R) LF
- Thompson/Outman CF (R-L)
Stanton might be re-invigorated by coming home. It’s scary, but I would think about it… however, Bellinger still lurks in the gigglyweeds.
Tyler Anderson
This one is simple: The Dodgers were willing to give him $19+ Million to serve as a one-year “bridge” to the youngsters but were unwilling to give him an additional $20 mil on top of that for two more years. Buehler will be back in 2024, and then the Dodgers have Urias, May, Gonsolin, Grove, Pepiot, Stone, Knack, Miller, and Sheehan. The next wave includes Nastrini, Huebeck, and Bruns. There are more than a couple of “special arms” in there. “Goodbye, Tyler; thank you for your service. It was wonderful to see your career blossom. I don’t blame You for taking the deal, and I wish you well.” Tyler was a class act!
Offseason Possibilities
Pitching – The Dodgers will be connected to Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and others, but if the Dodgers sign a Free Agent Pitcher, it very well could be Andrew Heaney. He still has untapped potential. They have already articulated that they need to promote young pitchers already within the system. Those young pitchers include Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Mike Grove, Victor Gonzalez (not so young anymore), Andre Jackson, and Dustin May. My favorite is Gavin Stone. “He is too small to pitch as a starter.” Yep, just like Pedro!
The Closer will not be Craig Kimbrel or Kenley Jansen (thank God). There are several pitchers who have an opportunity:
- Daniel Hudson
- Evan Phillips
- Alex Vesia
- Yency Almonte
The Dodgers will not seek another closer candidate, but they do have several other arms who should play up next year:
- Phil Bickford
- Justin Bruihl
- Caleb Ferguson
- Victor Gonzalez
- Michael Grove
- Bazooka Graterol
- Andre Jackson
- Jake Reed (watch this guy – he is ready to enter into his own as a specialist)
Chris Martin will surely be a pitcher AF tries to re-sign, but the price may be too high. Tommy Kahnle is also possible, but someone may throw him big bux. And then, the 800-pound gorilla is Trevor Bauer. We have discussed him ad nauseum. It’s going to all boil down to how corrupt the arbitrator is.
Position Players – Miguel Vargas is ready for the Show. James Outman probably is, too, along with Mike Busch. Andy Pages is not far off, and he is maturing. They say he needs to improve his concentration and focus. He has the skill set. A Wild Card who could move up quickly is Jonny DeLuca. You will soon see why AF protected him.
Insofar as traded and free-agent signings, I think it might be pretty quiet for the Dodgers. Let aF evaluate what he has, and maybe he will make some moves at the All-Star Break. I think that is how he should proceed this year as he tries to integrate the youngsters.
I do like Xander Bogaerts a lot. He should cost a lot less than Trea Turner. Check this out:
I like Bogaerts too. As you said probably be cheaper than the other 3 free agent ss and can play 3b later in his career. Would give us that RH bat in the middle of the lineup too.
I would also consider Drury for 3b. And deGrom to be the ace starter along with Julio.
DeGrom, Julio, Clayton, Gonsolin and May would be a devastating rotation with all the kids to provide depth.
Lineup;
Betts, rf
Lux, 2b
Freddie, 1b
Bogaerts, ss
Muncy, Dh
Smith, c
Drury, 3b
Outman, cf
Vargas, lf
Lineup would be well balanced with RH and LH. Outman and Vargas at the bottom would have less pressure to grow into their roles. Good speed too with Betts, Lux, Outman and Vargas.
If Bauer remains suspended the Dodgers should have enough money to make that work and maybe stay just a tad over the luxury cap.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe Dury is a late bloomer. I’ll give you that..
But here’s my problem with Brandon Drury:
(2016) He had 16 HR and 53 RBIs a 23-Year-Old Rookie, he hit .282 with a .329 OB% in 461 ABs.
(2017) The next year, he had 445 ABs and hit .267 with a .317 OB%.
(2018) He was injured and had 77 ABs where he hit .169.
(2019) He had 418 AB and hit .218 with a .262 OB%.
(2020) In 46ABS he hit .152.
(2021) Injured again, he had 84 ABs and hit .274 with a .307 OB%
(2022) This was a career year – he hit .263 in 518 ABs with 28 HR and 31 Doubles.
He has an extensive history of injury or being way below average,
I think 2022 could be an outlier for him and he will revert back to what he has always been.
The fact that he was having a career year is the reason AF should have targeted Drury for the 2022 run, instead of relying on guys like Gallo and Vargas.
Off the top of my head I’m not sure who the Padres gave up to get him.
The fact that Drury wound up on the team that eliminated the Dodgers underscores the point.
After the Dodgers won 111 games, the Pads ended up with the better, deeper roster in the end. Mindboggling.
How you finish matters more than how you start.
Mark, I’m with you. How do you build a team that will be good in the playoffs? So I guess the answer is not to win too many games in the regular season so the team coasts to much at the end. But also not to have to fight it out and get used up the last week or two of the regular season. I think the answer is to ask the players in advance if they will be able to hit in October. And find out in June which players will be hurt late in the season. And of course have more players like Kike who can ruin someones career with excess celebrations. So what’s the problem??
Easy button. Get rid of the guy that wears out the bullpen by pulling starters too early.
Friedman?
The Dodgers had an incredible 111 win season last year while facing a ton of adversity, which they seem to face every year. Why is it that we’re always in the lead for Days on IL?
The same people that are glad Belli is gone have come up with Outman and Thompson as the replacement in CF. Apparently, Trace can be good after being bad for most of his career due to injury, but Belli can’t be good after being bad for a couple of years due to injury? That makes perfect sense. I agree that Belli isn’t worth $18M based on the last 2.5 seasons. But, he was worth a lot more than they were paying him for his two stellar seasons. He will be good again. What are the chances he’s better than the Outman/Thompson platoon?
There’s no way I sign Verlander, going into his age 40 season to a multi-year deal.
DeGrom has to have the worst medical reports of any pitcher in baseball. He sat out almost a full year with “Flexor Tendon” – Where have I heard that one before? Then he came back and went on the IL with “Shoulder Soreness” – Where have I heard that one before? He’ll be 35 next season. No thanks, I’ll pass.
I would absolutely take Stanton and $60M from the Yankees. His Luxury tax salary is just $22M per year before the Yankees kick in $60M! Stanton for $10M per year for 5 years? Yes, please! I doubt that’s going to happen.
Jon Hayman;
Biggest name hear available in trade so far is Marlins pitcher Pablo Lopez. Fish need hitters! Came close to dealing him to Yankees at deadline in a Gleyber Torres deal.
Of course, you can never have too much pitching, but Lopez would likely be a #3 or #4 with the Dodgers, and we have a number of young arms at the ready. The Dodgers need hitters too.
There is one thing I know for certain, I suck at predictions. Mark had an excellent analysis of the season. Winning the next 11 games to win the Championship is not easy, and my main concern was the lack of distance by the starters. 5 innings from the starting staff in the playoffs is simply not enough. It puts a ton of pressure on the bullpen. I am not going to sit here and knock Roberts again since we all saw what happened. But two of the most controversial decisions he has made in the postseason came because he pulled his starter early with the team winning. Then the pen gave up the lead and the game was lost. deGrom is not the answer, and neither is Verlander.
I think they are making a conscious effort to move on and bring the kids in to do the job. Thompson/Outman might be the CF platoon and between them there certainly is the capability of having a 30-homer season. I think they both bring very good defense to the position, but not elite gold glove type defense. I also think they are very comfortable with Lux moving to SS. But we are going to have to wait a while to see what the 40-man looks like going into spring training. Next big thing is the winter meetings.
I think Bogarts makes a lot of sense. Betts will be deciding factor if wanted.
Not so sure about Thompson/ Outman because Thompson has a history of hitting better vs RHP than LHP. This year .308 vs .174. Lifetime its .228 vs .210.
I kinda want to see Outman get 400-500 at-bats.
A lot of swing and miss but his tools are loud.
More likely, Outman and Vargas would share LF and we’d either go with Trayce in CF or bring in someone new.
Busch is a wild card bat as well.
Thompson is in no way an everyday player. Outman is faster and has great reads on balls hit. Varga is no outfielder. Neither is Lux. They both looked totally lost out there.
ok
So many here puffed out their chests about the abundance of wealth we supposed had in the minor leagues. Guys that were untouchable as pieces to obtain players at trade deadlines. Where are they now? Most of the prospects are pitchers it seems to me. That’s a good thing but some fans will lobby for trades for veterans. Why would we be interested in Verlander or deGrom when we have a stable of young arms?
Where are all these position players, especially outfielders, that we were developing? Our 2022 top 100 prospects were Cartaya, who’s a year away or so, Miller, Vargas, Busch, Pepiot, Stone and Pages. Without TT, I’d like to see Amaya get a shot. Rios was cut loose. Too many here love our farm system but refuse to want to commit to these guys actually playing. It turns my mind into tapioca when I hear names like Joc Peterson and Puig still kicked around as returning to the Dodgers. Kike and Duggie too. Maybe Koufax has some innings in his arm. He looks pretty fit.
I have seen too many teams sink for refusing to move. Better to make tough calls a year early with aging veterans versus a year too late. For my money, it’s time to move on from CT3, Bellinger, JT, and even Thompson. I think he too may have found lightening in a bottle for a time last year, especially against right handed pitching, but I’m not confident at all with him as an everyday whiff machine.
I see a RHB needed and signing TT if not stupid money, but let’s make use of that home grown talent we supposedly were developing.
Right on the money Phil. If these kids are so good, what are they still doing in the minors? Mark said something about the door not being closed on Bellinger. Possible, and he won’t get 18 mil plus from any of his suitors, but MLBTR reported as many as five teams checked in within an hour of his non-tender and more have checked in since. He will be on a major league contract and roster somewhere. MLBTR is also predicting that Trea gets a 8/268 deal. Sounds about right, Amaya has a great glove, but with what I see on the current roster, LA can’t cover and hide his weak stick. I have moved on from Kike, Verdugo and Joc, and pretty sure Bellinger is now the enemy.
The Untouchables…
Busch and Vargas – Ready now.
Cartaya and Pages – Not quite ready
Outman – pleasant surprise
Pepiot and Grove – Are they untouchable?
Miller and Stone – Are they ready?
We have a hole in LF, CF, 3B, and SS or 2B – With two guys that are ready now, that’s not really a great position to be in. We’ll have to fill two holes from the outside or hope that Outman, Busch and Vargas will all be able to play close to full time.
I never considered Grove or Pepiot untouchable, but with 4 Starting Pitchers that are this close, I’m very comfortable with the rotation. But, we all know how many guys wind up on the IL, so there might need to be a need to have some insurance. Do you wait for Trevor’s judgement, or do you fill that hole now?
I am not a huge believer in the starting pitching beyond the big three. Kersh, Urias and Gonsolin. May has nasty stuff, but loses concentration at times. I do not see Pepiot as a member of the rotation or any of the kids for that matter. I have never seen Stone pitch except in some video’s on Youtube. Miller might be the closest of all of them, but kid pitchers are not given a long leash in the Dodger system. They watch their innings like Hawks. I have to believe at this point that the powers that be consider either Muncy or Vargas the starter at third and I am not really comfortable with either of them defensively. If they sign a free agent SS, then 3/4 of the infield is set with Freddie, Gavin and the SS. Third could end up being a black hole again, even if they re-signed JT. Only RF is set in stone. They also have to figure out who is going to close games. Looking forward to the Winter Meetings although this is one year I do not expect much in the way of fireworks for the Dodgers.
Stone looks like a guy ready to make the jump.
He’s succeeded at every level, and he’s remarkably consistent and competitive. Miller has more raw talent, but Stone shows polish and perhaps the mental makeup to succeed. As I’ve mentioned before, something about his highlights had me thinking of Zack Greinke.
If a proven ace is truly on the market, like Corbin Burns or ???, I hope AF isn’t too conservative.
Seattle got Castillo with a bold offer of three of their prime prospects. A package of Castillo + Drury seemed like a good fit for the Dodgers, especially since both Muncy and JT were struggling.
Did AF explore this? Is his judgment clouded by the way he stole Scherzer and Trea from the Nationals?
With Trea now an FA–and Rios and JT and Belli too!–the Dodgers figure to be for a big makeover.
The nucleus is solid–Betts, Freeman, Smith–and we can hope Muncy will continue to return to form. We expect Lux back, but at what position? So much is in flux.
With both Outman and Trayce on the roster, I don’t see a great need for a “true” CF. Both guys are fast, athletic career outfielders. Trayce’s reverse splits make a platoon problematic. Both might be “fourth outfielder” types, but both have earned a lot of that “runway” the brass likes to talk about.
Somebody here mentioned Haniger as an option for LF. Certainly deserves consideration. But he is another high strikeout guy–and we already have too many of those.
What we clearly don’t have is a guy like Yoshida, a guy with a career on-base % over .400–a guy who walks twice for every time he strikes out.
Pairing him with Mookie at the top of lineup could prove more dynamic than Mookie-Trea.
The reality is, with the way the postseason is now set up, its means very very little what you do from April-September as now just about every good teams make the playoffs and some even average teams.
Come October the Dodgers are going to be there again…hopefully it works out different than the last 2 years….
Boras said that Bellinger has already received several multi-year offers. What intrigued me was he said that they were looking to sign a one-year deal. He is banking on his client having a comeback season and getting a bigger payday next year. I am leery of Japanese stars who sign with major league teams. There have been a few exceptions for sure, but also some huge busts. Suzuki, who was the Cubs big offseason get, played in only 111 games. He hit .262 with 14 homers. Not exactly a great year. I have seen a lot of chatter about Ohtani. Great, but the Angels are not going to trade him to the Dodgers. If he makes it to free agency, he is going to break the bank.
Boras is so full of BS. Trying to float a multi-year offer for Cody, but they will only sign a one-year deal. I just don’t see it. I don’t believe there is a team out there that would offer a multi-year deal to secure Cody based upon his offensive play the last two years. Agent speak!
It is being reported by more than one outlet. I would guess there are quite a few teams who would give him a multi-year incentive laden contract. Based on the fact that he is a former MVP and ROY. And I do not really count 2021 since he was recovering from major shoulder surgery and he also broke his leg early in the year.
A multi-year contract offer could mean $5 million a year for two years. And the offer could have a club buyout. I imagine the Dodgers offered a 2 year deal at $5 to $10 million per year. Of course, teams would offer multi-year deals for Bellinger. Boras floats this information to help overstate the market for his player.
Friedman reportedly has not signed a Boras free agent client yet. And Boeggarts and Correa are represented by Boras. Doesn’t rule out one of them signing with Dodgers but makes it unlikely.
I’ve pretty much always said how much I dislike too many divisions and wildcard teams in the playoffs. What a monster MLB created that’s not likely to ever be killed. They’re more likely to bring more teams into playoffs and make the post season games for PPV only. I’ve almost had enough with baseball because of the idiots who run the commission. If I wasn’t able to pirate view the games I’d already be done with baseball. Vote me into the commissioner’s seat and you’ll get 148 games to decide what teams of 4 divisions of 32 teams make it to the playoffs. Talk about a fantasy.
Well, it is what it is and will likely stay that way because it engages a lot more groups of fans than 4.
It also makes the trip to win the World Series a crapshoot!
Oh you know I know that. But wasn’t the 2020 season sort of refreshing even if the Dodgers didn’t win it all? I felt the shortened season only added to the excitement.
It was different. But it was also not a real test since they played most of their games against their closest rivals. And look how close they came to being eliminated in the NLCS. Yeah, it was exciting, but it also sucked big time because nobody got to see it except on TV.
That’s how it is supposed to be. Division champions to league champion to championship. It all started with league champions for the World Series. There was no such thing as divisions or interleague games. The format now brings both the games and playoffs to be less important and can only get worse.
That is called progress Quas. There are twice as many teams now. How much interest do you think the bottom dwellers fans would have when their team is out of it by the All Star break. it is pro sports and it is driven by money, and nowadays, huge money. It will never go back to what it was.
Good stuff, Mark. Always enjoy your columns.
I’ve read a lot about what the Dodgers need to do to win a World Series. Honestly, I wouldn’t focus on winning the series. It’s based on luck, teams getting hot at the right moment or you have a team that is head and shoulders above every other team. The Dodgers were good, really good, but they were not better than other teams in the playoffs.
Maybe if Walker Buehler hadn’t got hurt or Cody Bellinger had a big playoff bat. But that didn’t happen.
What I hope that the Dodgers do in 2023 is put together another team that can win a hundred games plus. They shouldn’t try to build a World Series winner, whatever that would look like.
Putting themselves in the best position to win games is the appropriate move. That will give them the best edge possible.
I might want Trea Turner back, but the Dodgers will do what they do. Fun player to actually watch.
So I honestly don’t care what they do. Move Gavin Lux to short, sign Xander or even go with the cheat. Makes no difference.
I’m sure whatever they do or don’t do will make no matter. The Dodgers will win a lot of games.
Andrew Friedman is just smarter than pretty much everybody else. Second guess him, if you wish.
MLNTR reporting that Judge is meeting tomorrow with the Giants.
Well, of course he is. I think he wants to get this taken care of fairly quickly and he’ll be signed by the end of the Winter Meetings, if not sooner.
His signing may be having an effect on the shortstop market which affects other stuff so I’m hoping Judge signs tomorrow, and I’m expecting it will be with the Yankees.
Farhan has a whole lotta money to spend this winter and I’m sure he’ll do so because SF fans are growing impatient. Gone are the days of sellouts for every home game, so it behooves them to sign a big star to bring the fans back.
Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them hand out two or three very large contracts.
Excellent article, Mark!
Dodgers had many setbacks and underperforming players and still managed to win 111 games.
The Freeman, Anderson, Heaney, Martin, and Thompson signings were great moves by Friedman last year.
But I often focus on the bad moves he made last year in getting Kimbrel, Gallo, and Alberto.
The current roster has several big holes in it, and many appear to be due to conscious decisions by AF to let Anderson, Turner, JT, and Bellinger go.
Although I am frustrated by the current roster, there is a lot of time left and Friedman has a great track record in building a good roster. Patience is in order.