It’s always frustrating losing good, home-grown players to free agency especially when they’re well-liked and have put up huge numbers for the club. Cody Bellinger meets this criteria for some and doesn’t for others. He burst onto the scene in 2017 while arriving a year early by most accounts. He didn’t disappoint. He crushed 39 homers that year and on the way to winning the Rookie of the Year award, was selected to the All-Star game and finished in the top 10 of MVP voting. Those 39 homers came in just 132 games and 480 AB’s. He looked like a future Gold Glove first baseman and a generational player.
He didn’t quite live up to his rookie season in his Sophomore campaign as his OPS dropped by over 100 points and it seemed that the league might have caught up with him. He had an acceptable 25 homers and 28 doubles, but these totals are marginal for a corner position player.
His third season, as a 23-year-old was purely amazing. 47 homers and 34 doubles to go along with 95 walks against just 108 K’s. His power/speed combo led to 121 runs scored and 115 RBI. This earned him the MVP honors to go along with another All-Star appearance, a Gold Glove award in Right Field, and a Silver Slugger award.
The short season to follow was his worst to date. It seems that Cody is looking like a roller coaster-type player, great one season, average the next. This down season resulted in a ring, a trophy and an injured shoulder to go along with offseason surgery. Nobody saw it coming, but this turned out to be the beginning of the end for Cody.
We all lived through the last two years hoping Cody would turn it on again. It never happened and now he’s gone. Thank you, Cody for everything you accomplished and for helping the Dodgers win that first ring in over 30 years! You will be missed, but now it’s time to move on. Let’s hope it doesn’t bite us in the ass too hard.
Now What?
I don’t like how the offseason is taking shape so far for the Dodgers, but I have to remember that we’re just a few days in. My concern is mostly with the weak free-agent class and with the departure of Cody, there’s another hole in the lineup to fill.
I said goodbye to my favorite Dodger last year with Corey and barely missed him. It’s easy for me to move on from a player who leaves for money especially when we have an clear in-house replacement of Trea Turner’s caliber. In the end, Trey was slightly better than Corey. But, remember that it was Cody who largely put the team on his back on the way to World Series victory.
This offseason seems like we’re in a much different place than last year. Last year, we didn’t really seem to have multiple holes to fill. It seemed like Freddie Freeman fell into our lap and we created a home for him by shifting Max Muncy to DH and 3rd base timeshare with JT. With that single move, the infield was complete and the outfield was intact until the ill-fated trade that created a hole in LF to acquire one of the best closers in baseball that didn’t work out that way. In retrospect, we paid too much to bring back Chris Taylor and figured he would fill the newly created hole in Left Field. It sure didn’t turn out that way when Left Field because a revolving door of futility.
At this point in the offseason, we have two holes in the infield and two holes in the outfield. So much for keeping things largely the same after a club record of 111 wins. A gaping hole in the lineup will need to be filled with the departure of Trea Turner and another with the loss of an aging Justin Turner. Left Field and Center field were largely black holes last season, and will now be filled with new players. The good news is that we have some positional flexibility with the players we do have and we have some prospects that are as close to ready as can be reasonably expected.
Will Smith and Austin Barnes have catcher covered. Together, they’re one of the best catching tandems in baseball. Will Smith is largely regarded as one of the best, if not the best all-around catcher in the game providing great defense and offense at the position while Barnes is viewed by his teammates as one of the leaders and great game caller.
Mookie Betts is one of the game’s great hitters and all-around great players on both sides of the ball. He can play RF, possibly CF and second base if needed.
Freddie Freeman is one of the best pure hitters in the game and an excellent defensive first baseman.
Max Muncy is who he is. He’s got a lot of power and on-base skills trading off with average to below average defense at 2B and 3B. He’s a three true outcome type consistently hitting more Homers than Doubles and is consistently near top of the league in both Strikeouts and Walks. He’ll be healthy next year and is pretty consistent. In my eyes, he fits best as a DH.
Gavin Lux did a lot to prove himself last season. He was a top-4 second baseman until a neck injury halted his hot streak. There’s a lot to like about his game. He’s extremely athletic and is a rangy, sure-handed defender with a very large wart with wild throws from time to time. He can handle second and possibly shortstop and he’s got speed, on-base skills and the ability to put the ball in play and could be an All-Star at some point in the future.
After that, it starts to get dodgy…
CT3 is a utility player and not a starter in my book. He’s a solid defender, but he’s no Belli in CF and he isn’t as good as Lux as a middle infielder. He K’s way too much for an everyday player with his power profile and just doesn’t do enough to warrant an everyday position. His value comes from his ability to play acceptable defense while providing solid offense at every position in the field.
Miguel Vargas is an enigma. He was billed as a pure hitter while hitting over 300 in each of his minor league seasons with more power to come. He has range and a strong arm, but makes a lot of errors leading me to believe he’s got a brick for a glove. Somehow, he won a top defender award as a minor league 3rd baseman while his bat never got warm in his Grande-sized cup of coffee with the big league team last year.
Michael Bush is compared to a possible Chase Utley type. Like Chase, he was viewed as a great hitter without a position going into the draft. His bat has delivered, especially in the power department and his glove has improved each year. He played mostly 1B and LF in college, but played second base during the summer leagues before he was drafted. The Dodgers converted him to second base, but he did spend some time in left field last season. He was viewed as one of the best hitters in his college draft class, if not the best hitter.
James Outman was drafted based on his athleticism, not his results. Nothing in his college stat line screams MLB Center Fielder. James was said to have a “Caveman” swing, which the Dodgers successfully broke down and built back from the ground up. He’s a lefty that doesn’t hit lefties very well (Where have I heard that before?), and while he played a lot of CF, they moved him to right when he was promoted to AAA because apparently, Drew Avans is the better defender.
These are our best options right now with somewhere around $30-40M to spend before they hit the CBT line. Here’s where payroll stands after the latest non-tenders.
- Players under contract account for $98.5M
- Estimated Arb Eligible Players now stand at $44M
- Estimated Pre-arb Players is around $11M
That brings the known subtotal to $153.5M with a CBT of $233M = $79.5M to spend.
Most of that will be allocated to Trevor and Clayton ($32M and $17M). What remains after those commitments is about $30.5M to fill 5 open roster spots, plus the spots that will go to 60 day IL candidates, Walker Buehler and Blake Treinen.
With all of this said, I’m not very concerned with the Dodgers payroll. It’s a fool’s errand to try to postulate on when they’ll dip under the CBT and when they’ll blow everyone out of the water. After all, they don’t get valuable draft picks regardless since they aren’t ever picking at the top of the draft. There’s little motivation for this team to reset as long as they’re selling tickets and getting into the playoffs when the bid money comes in. (Not quite some big when eliminated after just 4 games, but it’s a big revenue jolt nonetheless.
Taking note of the roster, it’s depth and some clear holes, it sure looks like they might need to be a little more spendy than what the current CBT dictates. You can certainly field a team with what they currently have, but it won’t be optimal, or anywhere near as good as last year’s squad.
What they do have is enough arms to fill out a bullpen, especially when there’s more than enough live arms in the minors. Some of them can be used to fill out the pen as Andre Jackson did at the end of last season and others will back up the starting rotation as Pepiot and Grove did last season. They have a full rotation with Bauer, but will have to spend a big chunk of his salary to replace him if he isn’t a member of the staff.
This is what the starting lineup looks like right now, with what they still have.
Mookie RF (R)
Lux SS (L)
Freeman 1B (L)
Smith C (R)
Muncy DH (L)
Vargas 3B (R)
Outman CF (L) Taylor against lefties
Busch 2B (L)
LF?
It’s very easy to see that this isn’t going to cut it especially when you consider that your right-handed cleanup hitter isn’t going to be in the lineup full-time. Having just three right-handed hitters in the lineup isn’t ideal by any means and when one is a catcher that hits cleanup it downright unacceptable. It’s also a big ask to insert three rookies into the lineup and expect some level of production that will match last year’s squad.
If we don’t add a starting position player, we would have to round out the lineup with CT3 or Trayce Thompson while counting on Outman to man CF. It might just be the worst hitting outfield in baseball, a lot like last year. The infield would swap the two Turners steady bats for two highly touted rookies. Part of me says, “Let the kids play!”. The other part says, “This lineup kinda sucks”.
There’s little to no chance the Opening Day starting lineup looks like this. I just thought it’s a worthwhile exercise to put this “on paper” so to speak to see what we’re working with. Let’s see what the hell happens between now and Opening Day. There definitely some work to do.
Thanks BP, appreciate the write up I think the dodgers do get a big free agent hitter (hopefully arrenado but think goes back cards) and trade for starting pitcher.
Keep up good work !
Nolan is out of play. He is staying with the Cardinals.
Missed the news, Toy? Arenado did not opt out of his deal in St. Louis, so he is no option. The free agent outfield class is very thin on good CF. As a matter of fact, there is only one GG defender besides Bellinger and he is 33 and injury prone, Kiermaier. I think Thompson is back on a one-year deal because his performance after he became a Dodger merits that, plus, he is still on the roster. I am conflicted where Bellinger is concerned and to me for good reason. Yes, last season he was pretty terrible at times. But he won some games with his bat and his glove. I saw him make more than a few outstanding plays, The other thing most people keep forgetting is that he had major surgery after the 2020 season, then he broke his leg early in 21. No way that kid was ever totally at full strength during that awful year. But, he and Taylor were the only two who were hitting in the post season, and if not for a Bellinger game tying homer in game 3, they would have been gone in 4 games instead of stretching it to six against the Braves. He also drove home the winning run-in game 5 against the Giants. My point is this, I still think his shoulder is not totally back. I think he got into some bad habits because of the broken leg. But I look at it this way, the guy raised his average 45 points from 2021. When a player does that, most give him the benefit of the doubt. Now, I think this decision was based more on the amount of money he would make in arbitration, and not on his problems at the plate. The guy is only 27 years old. He has excellent work ethic and attitude despite his troubles. Add to that the fact that he just became a father for the first time just before the end of last year, well, I think this one is going to come back and bite the Dodgers right in their collective ass.
No it won’t!
Just wait and see, especially if he stays in division. And remember this, from now on they play all the teams in the majors, so even if he goes to the other league, he is going to get some swings against LA and the chance to rob someone of a crucial hit. So chances are pretty good it bites them on the ass.
I waited all year this year and nothing happened. When will you finally give up the ghost with Bellinger? I’ll go with AF’s evaluation of Bellinger over yours!
That is fine, but I am telling you, he will be two years removed from major surgery. It took Kemp about the same amount of time to get even close to his former form. And he was not the centerfielder Cody is. And he was also older. Something happened this year, although it was not enough for spoiled Dodger fans who expected him to return to MVP form. How many times have you seen any player improve 45 points in their BA in one season? Especially after having major surgery on their shoulder and a broken leg the season prior? Get real. Bellinger may not be the MVP he once was, and he may never slug 40 bombs again, but I would bet money he improves over last year this season. Look what being out of LA did for Joc. And he has no where near the talent or skills Bellinger has.
I’m still banging the Andrew Benintendi drum.
All Star in 22,
Gold Glove 21 (AL)
Hitting .320 in KC before his trade to NY.
Only 28 – coming into his prime,
Looks like a perfect fit to me.
He is a left fielder, he is going to cost more than 19 mil a year most likely and will want at least a six year deal or more. LA won’t make that jump.
I’ll bang the Yoshida drum. (A taiko drum, perhaps.)
Given the success of many Japanese players that have come over, I’d bet on Yoshida and also the pitcher Senga. Yoshida is an on-base machine, with a career OBP over .400 and BA over .300. Walks twice as much as he Ks. Dodgers could use a guy like that. (So could the Angels, who K’d the most in the majors last year.)
Nice analysis by B&P. Vargas is indeed an enigma, but he’ll surely get a chance to prove himself. (Belli wasn’t an enigma until he was.)
One quibble: the projected lineup overlooks Trayce Thompson. Another guy who strikes out too much…. but his OPS in 2022 was .901 over 205 ABs.
A guy like Yoshida could relieve the strikeout problem.
I don’t think batting .165 in 2021 and .210 in 2022 merits getting paid $18M+ in 2023. Shoulder and back issues may or may not have affected his performance in the past and may or may not in the future as well. His on base percentage is the lowest in all of the major leagues over the past two years and his batting average is better than only one player–Joey Gallo. His defense is center field is slightly better than average, his strike out rate is up to 27.7% and his walk rate is down to 7.7%. Spending over $18M for that resume makes no sense–you can get those results elsewhere and/or internally for a fraction of that cost.
How can you say those injuries did not affect his performance? They had too. At no time in 21 was his shoulder at full strength. You are right, 210 hitters are not worth 18 mil. Slightly better than average? Did you watch the guy out there everyday? I did. He never took a day off on defense, he played hard out there and made plays no other player on this team would make.
I said his injuries may OR may not have affected his performance. Defensive Runs Saved rates him as a roughly average center fielder. Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast have him at above par. Overall he is rated slightly above average in center field. I watched all the Dodger games too. I have the MLB package solely because of the Dodgers. I love the Dodgers. I love the players as well but after two years of arguably the worst offensive numbers in all of baseball and slightly above average defensive performance I don’t think it is in the best interests of the team to continue down that road.
Well that is ok, those defensive metrics and crap don’t beat the eye test for me. And I do chalk his numbers up to injurie hangover. I think he is going to have a solid season, especially with no shift.
Ok. Lets just agree to wait and see what he looks like by the end of June next year. I’m moving on. He’s no longer a Dodger
Okie dokey smokey
I am with Bear on this. You are not taking his age and past performance into this. And by past performance I mean all the clutch hits he has gotten for us in post seasons past as well as 2017 and 2019. I will bet on Cody.
Thanks Bob, great minds think alike, and shallow minds are lost in the muck.
I’m with AF on this one. Down in the muck with our shallow minds!
Freidman is the most overrated exec in the majors. His teams win in the regular season, but not so much in the post. He is the Kasten of the 2000’s.
DRS and UZR are nothing close to definitive! There are very subjective, and while I consider them, I use the “eye test.”
In my opinion, Belli is a Top 5 CF… maybe Top 3. I am OK with not tendering him, but even AF says that he thinks Belli will rebound… and he ain’t gone yet!
I’m rooting for Belli, regardless.
It will be interesting to see what he fetches as a free agent. I’d guess about $6-7 million with incentives that could push it much higher. He basically gets a year to re-establish his value.
Today I was driving my son and his buddy Danny to their “juniors” game–what we used to call Pony League. We often talk baseball and I mention that Belli was a FA.
“Not anymore,” Danny declared. “He signed with the Giants.”
Perfect delivery. He rarely kids, and I thought he was serious. My boy played along. And I have to say it made sense that Farhan could swoop in and make a nice offer, perhaps mention how he could stick it to the Dodgers for losing faith in him, et cetera…
He’s paying Joc more than $19 million, right? If Cody gets his act together.. wow!
So for a while I imagined Cody running down fly balls in that huge outfield–and I still think that’s an interesting possibility.
The Blue Jays seem seriously interested. Cody will land somewhere, and maybe AF will live to regret letting him go.
But if AF gets Judge, well… that could work.
Well I’ve never been called shallow minded or down in the muck. I thought my analysis was pretty well thought out.
Thanks for your kind criticism Bear. Back at ya!
It was
Homers will be homers. No way anyone in their right mind would think Bellinger is worth $18 million after his last two futile years. I hope the best for him, seems like a great kid, even though he acted as if he was stoned from time-to-time (no I have no way of knowing that).
The non-tender might bite the Dodgers in the butt, but Kenley Jansen may very well be closing games for the Giants , Corey Seager may hit a walk-off against us and JT might be playing back in NY. Who knows but AF absolutely made the right move by non-tendering him.
Nothing personal Steve. I just think along a lot different lines than you and Cassidy. I think the injuries caused a lot of his problems. Some do not. I also think Dodger fans expected them to just walk to the World Series. They expect their players to perform to levels that many have achieved only once. Is Bellinger worth 18 million? Based on his last two years no, and I figured he was in deep trouble roster wise, but I also thought that two full years removed from surgery, he is going to be in better shape than he has been in quite a while. I have no problem with AF not paying him 18 mil. I have a problem with the fact that there is no one who is a free agent or on the roster who can come close to his defense. Nor match his power, which I really believe will return. I think he goes somewhere else where there is less of a spotlight, say Toronto, and comes back with a vengeance.
Of course all of the conversation is going to be about Bellinger. So, ok guys, put on your thinking caps, who replaces him in center field? Your picks please,
Outman/Trayce platoon with Haniger in LF.
An option for sure, but those guys combined would for sure pass Bellinger’s K totals. I am talking about Outman/Thompson
A lot of guys strike out a lot these days. And many are still very productive.
Judge struck out 175 times. Schwarber struck out 200 times. The Braves vaunted trio of Swanson, Riley and Olson each K’d more than 168 times. Ohtani whiffed 161 times–but of course he also got more than 200 Ks as a pitcher.
The problem is with guys who strike out a lot and aren’t productive. In 2022 that included Belli, Gallo and Taylor.
But Thompson and Outman were both very productive, producing an OPS above .900.
The question is whether they can keep it up.
Sheldon Nuese close to signing a deal to play in Korea.
Jalbwayo Sheldon.