What, Me Worry? – Alfred E. Neuman

Posted By on October 11, 2022

The road to the ring just got a whole lot easier with the New York Mets getting embarrassed at home by little brother, San Diego Padres.  The Mets were supposed to be the second Juggernaut in the National League as reporters and pundits backed the East Coast iconic team that replaced the Giants and the Dodgers after their diaspora from New York Baseball.  Somehow along the way, they dismissed the Braves, last year’s champions and All-Star game robbery victims, as well.  They Mets appeared at the top of MLB’s Power Rankings, along with the Yankees as soon as those East Coast writers had a chance, wearing their bias on their sleeves. As their records faded they had to put the best teams back up top. Then they had the pleasure of watching the Mets “Big Two” split their starts and leaving their fate in the hands of A’s castoff Chris Bassitt.  The Padres delivered the death blow with 3 early runs and a really red-eared Joe Musgrove throwing 7 innings of zeros on one hit, one walk and 5 K’s. The day after, they quickly jumped on the band wagon to call Musgrove a cheater. I think they’re correct, but it looks like sour grapes. The reason they lost to Musgrove is because Scherzer couldn’t get the job done once again and Musgrove is better than Bassitt, red ears and all.

This was a great result for the Dodgers.  Little Brother struggled against us to the tune of a 5-14 record during the regular season and this run of dominance by the Dodgers has gone on this way for years. Now, we all know from our own history how regular season record doesn’t predict postseason success.  After all, we were 1-10 against the Mets in 1998 and sent them home when it mattered most.  But, this season, it’s hard to argue that it isn’t better to get a tune-up against the Padres before advancing to the next round where another potential postseason matchup against the Braves looms large, especially after the unknown of having close to a week vacation as a result of earning a bye.

The Wild Card round of the playoffs was a lot more excited than I anticipated.  The Cardinals choked a huge lead in game 1 against the Phillies and the Blue Jays, not to be outdone, said “Hold my beer” and delivered a bigger choke job against the M’s, both in front of their home crowds.  Scherzer proved why you don’t give $45 million a year to an aging vet, but at least they were in the fight after winning game 2.  The Indians were the only favorite to win their series, scoring a total of 3 runs in a two game sweep.  I was engaged in every game during the new format.  I never really was this interested in the Wild Card round in the past.

Now, we finally get to play a game and we get to play it under ideal circumstances.  Our pitching is lined up so we can set our rotation to our liking.  With the caveat that our two right handed starting pitchers are returning from a leave of absence.  Thankfully, the rest of the rotation pitched very well against the Padres this season. 

  • Tyler Anderson vs Padres:  1.88 ERA, .877 WHIP, .183 Average Against
  • Julio Urias vs Padres:  1.50 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, .180 Average Against
  • Clayton Kershaw vs Padres: 0.75 ERA, .750 WHIP, .191 Average Against

So, What Could Go Wrong?

I can’t really say the Padres are hot.  Sure, they knocked off the Mets, but Scherzer looked like a batting practice pitcher throwing 94 MPH cookies over the heart of the plate and scoring 3 runs in 4 innings against a very mediocre-looking Chris Bassitt seems par for the course.  They couldn’t muster much against deGrom in game 2, but most teams can’t.  At least they played a series, so they won’t be rusty as far as the hitters are concerned.

We shouldn’t have much of an issue taking down the Padres, at home, with our best, rested pitchers chomping at the bit.  Julio and Clayton are as battle tested as they come and Tyler won’t have to pitch until game 3. The Padres are already playing defense trying to limit the number of tickets sold to Dodgers fans. I guess they like our money so they can fund payroll, but they don’t want mud on their face by having a sea of blue in their own yard with a nationally televised series.

All we need to do is stick with the script, don’t over-manage and let the game come to us.  The Padres will have to pitch their best pitchers on short rest, or send out whipping boys Manaea or Clevinger to start the series.  Your move Padres.

All Doc has to do is roll out the best lineup and not make the mistake of starting a less deserving player for a variety of reasons. I’m looking at you, Joey Gallo!

Let’s Keep it Simple, Stupid…

All nine of these position players should be locks.  The only exception is playing CT3 in LF against a left-handed starter.  Just roll out this lineup and don’t get cute with a “personal catcher”.  It’s the lineup that we’re very familiar with and I’m sure most will agree that this one is the best.  Don’t create your own risk trying to prove how smart you are…

  • Betts RF R
  • T Turner SS R
  • Freeman 1B L
  • Smith C R
  • Muncy DH L
  • J Turner 3B R
  • Lux 2B L
  • Thompson LF R
  • Bellinger CF L

Again, don’t get too cute against a left-handed pitcher.  None of the lefties have large splits against lefty pitchers this year.  None of the bench players have done enough to justify such a move based on any kind of advantage.  The only platoon is pulling a right-handed hitting Trayce Thompson for another right-handed hitting CT3 against a lefty. You can always put Joey-G in LF as a defensive replacement late in the game.

How to use the Bench

Barnes, Gallo, CT3 and Alberto should be on the bench for most of the postseason, if not for it’s entirety. Doc says Vergas is a possibility, but I sure hope they don’t over think it.  We already covered CT3.  He should be used as a platoon in LF with Trayce against left-handed pitching.  If they’re thinking about Vargas for this role, they will run the risk of a ball being hit to him in the outfield that he can’t handle. The only other bench player to start a game should be Austin Barnes.  Austin should only play when there will be 4 games in a row without an off day.  Hopefully, they can line it up for a day game after a night game against a lefty.  When this happens, let smith DH and have Muncy play second base for Lux, or sit Muncy or JT depending on who’s coldest out of the three and depending on who’s on the bump for the opposition.

Gallo and Hanser should only be used late in the game to exploit a platoon advantage.  In Hanser’s case, when you need a guy to get on base, or advance a runner against a tough lefty.  With Gallo, when you need a homer or a sac fly against a righty in a do-or-die situation.  Gallo is a great defender and Hanser is at least above average at multiple positions, so you can use them when it absolutely makes sense to exploit an advantage without sacrificing defense late in a game.  Use them in a blowout late to “Stay Relevant” as our fearless leader likes to say.  But, don’t make them relevant by sitting a more deserving player.  Keep those guys hot.

Pitching Strategy

Let the starting pitchers pitch.  No early hooks like Rich Hill almost every time he pitched in the postseason.  Don’t put May and Gonso on artificial limits.  Let them keep pitching until they look like they’re fading.  Don’t even count pitches as pitch counts will likely lead to a bad decision.  Now is the time to use your eyes and keep them on the field and off the stats sheet.

For the most part, try to let relief pitchers finish their inning and to start an inning clean.  There are few in the pen that are used to pitching in back-to-back games, and even fewer pitching 3 in a row.  Do your best to avoid situations where they’ll be doing things you haven’t asked them to do all season.  Like when you had Morrow pitch 3 days in a row against Houston.  You have a couple of guys that like to come in and put the fire out.   Stick to those guys in that situation. Phillips and Graterol are up for the task.

What Keeps Me up at Night

I’m not concerned or worried about the opponent that we’re facing.  It’s not that I was afraid of the Mets, I was hoping for the Padres because it’s more satisfying to send them packing, especially after they beat the Mets.  I don’t fear the Braves or the Astros.  Both are great teams, but there’s only one historic team in this year’s postseason.

I’m not concerned about being overly reliant on the “Big Three” in the batting order.  Those guys need to show up to the dance with their dancing shoes on.  All postseason teams rely on their best players to show up one way or the other. If they don’t, you go home.  There’s only one team in this postseason has our depth in the lineup and that’s the Braves.  There’s just one team in this postseason that has our pitching depth and that’s the Astros.  I’ll put our 4-9 hitters against any other team.  Muncy and Belli are our worst two hitters on paper.  Belli is hitting a surprising .375/.346/.625/.971 over the last week of the season and is a solid, if underwhelming .278/.290/.431/.720 over the last month.  Much more than you can reasonably ask for in a number 9 hitter.  Muncy, on the other hand, has fallen back into bad habits over the last month of the season.  Hopefully, the time off allows him to reset.  He can come alive at a moment’s notice and usually does some of his best work in the postseason.

I’m only slightly concerned about the pitching staff.  Although, I strongly believe there are only good choices here.  I’m not as down on Kimbrell as others are and might choose him over another lefty against a team that crushes lefties.  I’m not concerned about Heaney’s homer problems.  Mark had a good suggestion about not letting him go more than two at a time.  My biggest concern is using May and Gonsolin as a reliever and / or using them with an opener. 

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again.  Let the teams like the Rays use an opener if that’s what they need to do to compete.  We don’t.  We could have easily called up Stone at the end of the season if we thought we would need another starter in the postseason.  Let the starters (and relievers for that matter) pitch in the situation they’re accustomed to pitching in. The problem with the statheads playing the game like “The Show” on their flat screen’s is that they don’t take into consideration the human part of the game.  Pitchers like their routines.  I’m sure if you asked them to be an opener, they’ll tell you what you want to here. I’ve been around enough players to know they would rather be in a spot they’re more comfortable being in, the role they’ve been used in during the season.  No starting pitcher would rather forego their schedule and pre-game routine to come into the game in the second inning. You don’t want to plant the seed that they aren’t good enough to face the top of the order.

Other than that, my slight concern is having too many lefties and/or too many starters. This is a great problem to have.  For this series, the extra lefty is of little concern.  I’m fine if they want to keep Heaney on the roster if they’re going to use him for 2 innings to give the pen a breather. If we do, we probably don’t need Ferguson, Vesia and Price.  They should know if they’re going with a 4 or 5 man rotation for this series.  There is no reason to go with a 5 man rotation so you shouldn’t have 5 starting pitchers on the staff with this deep and talented bullpen.  Let May sit this one out.  Here’s the pitching staff for this series…

I left the following pitchers off the roster for this series…

  • David Price – Heaney and Price are a bit redundant and Heaney is better.  Unless, you think the name of the game is to keep Grisham off the field, go ahead, keep both, and say goodbye to Graterol. That’s a ballsy move!
  • Craig Kimbrel – Too little too late.  But, stick around in case Treinen has to go back on the IL. We may need to stack righties at some point.
  • Dustin May – Let him build up playing sim games and bring him back for Atlanta or the Phillies.  Don’t screw him around pitching out of the pen.  Nothing good will come of that.  There’s more than enough quality options in the pen.
  • Michael Grove / Ryan Pepiot – Let’s hope we stay healthy enough that neither will be needed.
  • Andre Jackson – I might use him in another series.  He was lights out in those few games at the end of the year, but 9 innings isn’t enough to let him leapfrog other options.
  • Phil Bickford – Another guy I might use in another series.  If he’s showing progress in the sim games, I might use him over other options.
  • Justin Bruihl – He wasn’t quite right this year.  See you next year, Justin!
This keeps me up at night!!!

My Biggest (only) Fear

The only thing that really keeps me up at night is Doc doing Doc things (The man behind the curtain pulling the wrong strings).  We’ve seen it all before, and don’t tell me you haven’t. Doc has made some brain dead moves in the postseason. MLB was kind enough to do us a favor by abolishing the more strategic, National League rules.  This dumbed down the game enough that you no longer really need much of a bench, or really even need to think about pinch-hitting.  The three-hitter rule for pitchers also helped Doc overcome his preference for loogys and roogys and his love for the unnecessary double switch.  Don’t over-manage the game and everything will turn out just fine.  Refrain from the desire to pinch hit, it will present itself when the time is right.  Don’t give anyone playing time to keep them relevant.  Now is the time to use your best.

This article has 100 Comments

  1. Trea Turner!!!

    If he plays well this postseason I dont think we can be stopped. For me he is the key both offensively and to a lesser extent defensively.

    Cmon Trea come thru for us!!

  2. B&P, another very good analysis and write up. Again, I agree with most of your assessments. Keep it simple and don’t try to be too cute. After all, the team won 111 games. And with the DH in place Roberts’ chances of doing something questionable will be minimized. Let the players play. The top five hitters need to continue their excellent output in the regular season into the postseason.
    Carry on.

    1. Dave Roberts will indeed screw up trust me. Just telling it like it is. I hope he does not because I am a true blue fan.

  3. Just take good AB’s and we’ll be fine. The pitching has been great all year. It’s awesome to start the postseason against a team you’re very familiar with.

  5. They’re called ‘Sailin Shoes’. Everyone will hip hooray when you put on your sailin shoes.

  6. I would prefer to switch Cody and Lux in your lineup. I like Lux’s slightly better chance of getting on base for when the big three or four come up after him. But if Cody keeps up the way he has been the last month that is not as much of an issue.

    1. I have no problem with either hitting 9th. Lux keeps things moving, and both have a great chance of scoring with the top of the order comes back up. Of course, Belli has a better chance at a big blow.

  7. Well, I want you to ask you something.

    Does Cards Manager screw it up letting his closer in?

    Does Phillies manager screw up?
    Does the Mets fueled the Padres with the pitching announcement (saving deGrom for the Dodgers)?

    I don’t think Doc will screw up. It will only works or it don’t. The players execute or not.

    Example
    Julio is pitching in the seventh inning 2 hit 1 run game winning 3-1 on 72 pitches. 1 out runners on 1st and 2nd and Manny Machado who has struck twice coming to bat. EPhillips is warmed up.

    It is a screw up bring Phillips?
    It is a screw up letting Julio go?

    The correct answer is whatever goes wrong.

    1. When things go right, Docx doesn’t get any credit… or very little, but the first time something goes wrong, small-minded people need someone to blame, and Doc gets it every time. It has nothing to do with execution by a player. If a move yields a negative result, it is Doc’s fault. Second guessers are never wrong.

      They are preparing for it as we speak.

      1. This is a false narrative. No one has more ink about questionable moves than Doc. Small minded, large minded, his own broadcast crew, the entire Internet.

        The small minded people are the ones that constantly make excuses for him.

        The people that think everything is random are the ones that generally back Doc. How convenient is that? If everything is random and skill doesn’t mean anything, why even watch the games? Might as well just sit in front of a slot machine and mindlessly put money in and push a button.

        https://www.google.com/search?q=dave+roberts+questionable+moves&sxsrf=ALiCzsYaTYoAhrY0DHk65HOgPqQdzvTR5g%3A1665508565306&source=hp&ei=1aRFY42WC6GlkPIPxqCC2A0&iflsig=AJiK0e8AAAAAY0Wy5V_B8upGN8A-LCbLAn0B9imP4JnL&oq=&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMYADIHCCMQ6gIQJzIHCCMQ6gIQJzIHCCMQ6gIQJzIHCC4Q6gIQJzIHCCMQ6gIQJzINCC4QxwEQrwEQ6gIQJzIHCCMQ6gIQJzINCC4QxwEQ0QMQ6gIQJzIHCC4Q6gIQJzIHCCMQ6gIQJ1AAWABg2xRoAXAAeACAAQCIAQCSAQCYAQCwAQo&sclient=gws-wiz

        1. Might as well just sit in front of a slot machine and mindlessly put money in and push a button. Yeah, I do that. Is there something wrong with that?

      2. I agree that the players need to execute when called upon. My issue with Roberts ( front office) is when a pitcher is rolling along and because of the magic 100 pitch barrier he gets pulled. Roberts seemed to change a bit when he let Urias close out the final game to win the WS. Watch the velo and control and let the pitcher go until he shows he’s done and then should be replaced. It’s not the players he puts in, it’s the players that he prematurely removes from the game.

    2. The correct answer is bring in Phillips. Phillips role is to face the middle of the order when the pressure is on. Any pitcher that allows two runners in the 7th or later should be pulled when you have at least three shut down relievers.

      As far as the Cardinals go. The Cards Manager should be fired for what he did in game one. He made 5 freaking defensive switches to start the 8th inning! That was the first dumb ass thing he did. The second is that he probably didn’t need to use Helsley in the 8th, but he did and Helsley delivered by getting the last two outs. Then he came back out in the 9th and got the first out. Once he gave up the single to Realmuto and the walk to Harper, he should have known to pull him. Instead, he left him in too long and he walks another and a HBP before he finally makes a move. He had a 6 freaking run lead to start the inning and you’re gonna wear down Helsley so you can’t use him in the next game? Then you wait until the bases a juiced, plus you let a run in before you make another move? That is sheer stupidity. Read the freaking room! Believe your eyes!

      What did the Phillies manager do to screw up? How that relevant? The Phillies won both games.
      Yes, the Mets are dumb too. Go with your best pitcher in game 1. I thought it was really freaking stupid of them to start the series with Scherzer over deGrom and that dumb ass decision probably cost them the series. The Mets got too cute thinking they would have more issues with Snell because he’s a lefty. Don’t over think it. You go with your best and manage with your eyes on the game, not on the stat sheet or game plan.

  8. BP –

    Another great article! I agree not only with the substantive points you make but also love the way you make them. It is always great to start the day with a couple of hearty chuckles.

    Keep up the good work!

  9. I’ll be interested when I see the rosters.
    My pitching roster is a little different then B&P:
    Urias
    CK
    Anderson
    Gonsolin / Heaney
    Phillips
    Martin
    Kahnle
    Graterol
    Vesia
    Price – has pitched better than Fergie the last 7 outings. Fergy has 5 walks in 5 innings. No can do.
    Almonte – awesome vs LHB. I don’t know Treinen’s status
    May or Bickford

    Betts
    Turner
    Freeman
    Smith
    Muncy
    Turner
    Bellinger – stays in the 7 hole v LHP and RHP
    Lux
    Thompson
    Vs LHP
    CT3 in the 8 hole if he plays instead of Thompson
    Lux in 9 hole
    One pitch, one AB, one play, one inning at a time. Trust what you’ve prepared yourself to do. Eliminate the distractions.

  10. Dodgers NLDS roster: Taylor, May, Treinen, Vargas on; Kimbrel, Alberto Price off
    By Eric Stephen

    Dodgers NLDS roster
    Starting pitchers (4): Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson, Tony Gonsolin
    Right-handed relievers (7): Evan Phillips, Chris Martin, Tommy Kahnle, Yency Almonte, Brusdar Graterol, Blake Treinen, Dustin May
    Left-handed relievers (2): Alex Vesia, Andrew Heaney
    Catchers (2): Will Smith, Austin Barnes
    Infielders (5): Freddie Freeman, Gavin Lux, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Max Muncy
    Outfielders (4): Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, Trayce Thompson, Joey Gallo
    Infielder/outfielders (2): Chris Taylor, Miguel Vargas

          1. I would have rather kept May off the roster and focus on building up. Maybe May really impressed in his Sim games.

  11. Only suprise to me is Vargas over Alberto but thats 6 of one half dozen of the other.

    May AND Treinen, I like it!!!

    2. Me too Matt. I didn’t know Treinen’s status but being on the roster must mean he’s good to go. I like it. May as well
      Vargas is a head scratcher to me. He didn’t hit well in his limited opportunities and I don’t want to see him anywhere on the field on defense when it matters. Alberto is a great clubhouse guy and his cheerleader persona overshadows his skill set. He’s a good defender at several positions, hit .244 and doesn’t strike out much 16%.
      This one surprised me, if it’s official.
      But I can live with about anything as long as I don’t have to watch Kimbrel.

  12. Great stuff BP. I agree with your lineup except I would switch Lux and Bellinger. Lux thrived in the 9 hole early in the year. I also like the idea of three rabbits at the bottom of the lineup. You have 5 guys in a row coming up with exceptional speed. Padres are more like a dysfunctional cousin than a little brother. Padres playing their silly games trying to limit the number of Dodger fans at the park. I think the fans in blue will find a way to get in. Pantone 294 might not be able to make it, but our fans are perseverant if nothing else. Roberts has made some lulu’s in seasons past. We all know about pulling Hill, and leaving Kersh in a batter too long. But also look at it this way, if he had a bullpen he could trust in 19, that would not have been necessary. Neither would leaving Kelly in for a second inning. Worst mistake was trusting Darvish to pitch game 7.

  14. Braves – Freddie = meh

    That lineup is good, not great. In clutch situations – Riley? Swanson? Harris? Not impressed.

    Phillies roll them in 5

    1. Acuna Jr is moving into clown territory.

      His choppin’ and screaming getting old for a guy who hit .266 this season.

      Calm down Jr. You ain’t all that.

  17. Another day, another episode of Bill Swerski’s Superfans here on LADT.

    “The Dodgers won 111 games. They are historic! They are magnificent! They are PERFECT! It’s guaranteed they’ll win the WS.”

    I was just looking back at the past WS winners for the last 10 years. From 2011 through 2021 the team that had the best regular season record has won the WS three times (the 2013 Red Sox were tied with the Cards for the best record). In that same period, there have been three wild card teams that have won the WS, two of which had the lowest winning percentage of any qualified playoff team during the regular season. In one additional year, a division winner that won the WS (the 2021 Braves) had the lowest winning percentage of any qualified playoff team during the regular season. The 2014 Giants had the second lowest winning percentage of any qualified team during the regular season.

    “But the Dodgers won 111 games!! They are historic!!

    Yeah, I know. That’s nice.

    It also doesn’t mean diddly squat! The Dodgers don’t have all regular season to beat up on the Diamondbacks and the Rockies anymore. Playoff teams are there because they’re good. The Dodgers, as historic as their season has been, still have to play their best baseball, not make mistakes or have bad performances … and get lucky.

    What is the percentage probability that the Dodgers beat the Pads? 60% … so 60/40. That’s pretty good. The Dodgers are favored for sure. …. That also means there is a 40% chance the Dodgers have an ignominious exit to their historic season. That’s too high to be overconfident.

    Ok, so the Dodgers got past the Pads. Now they probably play the Braves. The Braves are VERY good (and they’re going to be good for a long time). They have seven starters with an wRC+ of at least 120, and Acuna isn’t far behind at 113. The Dodgers have five, highlighted by their big three. The Braves can beat you with more guys. They can’t match up with the Dodgers Big Three, but if any of those guys disappears during the series (I’m looking at you, TT), the landscape could change.

    “That’s nonsense talk!! The Dodgers are perfect! They won 111 games!”

    Yeah, you mentioned that already.

    The Braves match up pretty well against the Dodgers, and the addition of Raisel Iglesias, who’s given up exactly 1 earned run in the 27 innings he’s pitched since he was acquired at the deadline, could itself be a difference maker, as could a healthy and dominant Spencer Strider. The Dodgers lost to the Braves last year with Beuhler and Scherzer and Urias as their 1, 2, 3. Now they have Urias and Kershaw and Anderson?

    “BUT THEY WON 111 GAMES!!!”

    You keep saying that. I know. It’s impressive.

    What would be the probability percentage of winning if the Dodgers face the Braves? 55%? So 55-45? That’s still a 45% chance the Dodgers lose in the NLCS. And then, if the Dodgers get by the Braves and face the Astericks, what is their favorability %? 55 again.

    “You’re negative!!! You’re not a loyal Dodger fan! Apostasy!! Traitor!!”

    No. It’s just math.

    Winning the World Series is long odds for any team, even one that is “perfect” and won 111 games. You gotta have luck, too

        1. His exact quote:

          I can’t tell if people are joking with Kimbrel. Does anyone really think he won’t be on the playoff roster, or is it just more wishful thinking.

          1. Can you check the Spam Mark, because I think maybe Bluto’s expression of regret Post is holed up in jail?

          2. Once again, I am proven wrong!

            Will not, in the least be the last time!

            I really know nothing about baseball.

    3. So are you saying they would have been better off winning 91 games and perhaps have Freddie injured and out for the playoffs? I know that’s not what you mean, but all things being equal (which they are not), I still feel better going in with the best team

      1. I would rather take my chances with a team that won 111 games and has the best record, run differential, hitting, and pitching in baseball, but it is still a crap shoot… the dice are just weighted our way a little more.

    4. You say math, I say show your math. Where did you get that 60/40 against the Padres from? Pulling it out of your ass isn’t math, it’s bullshit.

      Yes, you’re negative. All freaking year, all you do is cry. 111 wins later and you’re still not impressed. I feel sorry for people like you who don’t appreciate what you have. All of your arguments are just nonsense.

      They have seven starters with an wRC+ of at least 120? There you go being bad at math again…
      Today’s lineup
      Acuna – 114
      Swanson – 115
      Riley – 142
      Olson – 122
      Contreres – 138
      d’Arnaud – 119
      Arcia – 114
      Harris – 135
      Grossman – 89

      Nice try.

      The Dodgers don’t have the D-Back 74 wins and the Rockies 68 wins to beat up on anymore. What about the Braves and the 69 win Marlins and the absolute worst team in baseball, the 55 win Nats? More bad math.

      For a guy that references math, you’re really bad at it. Stick to what you know. Whining about how other teams are better than the team you root for.

      About the only thing you said that was true is that there’s some luck involved. So, is that something to worry about? If you were that concerned about luck, you probably wouldn’t challenge cars on PCH in the summer with nothing but spandex for protection.

      Stop whining and enjoy this team and never try to show how bad you are at math again.

      1. Gosh! Are you going to throw your toys against the wall now, too? Are you ok? Do you need a time out?

        You’re just NEGATIVE! …all freaking YEAR!! Your arguments are just NONSENSE!!! I can’t coherently explain WHY, but they just ARE!!! It’s all BULLSHIT!! …. WHAAAAA!!!”

        “I’m not concerned or worried about the opponent that we’re facing. It’s not that I was afraid of the Mets, I was hoping for the Padres because it’s more satisfying to send them packing, especially after they beat the Mets. I don’t fear the Braves or the Astros. Both are great teams, but there’s only one historic team in this year’s postseason.”

        Yeah, no hubris there at all!

        ZiPS Projection has the Dodgers at 60.2% versus the Padres at 39.8% . If the Padres can beat either Urias or Kershaw in the first two games, the advantage slips to 52%-48%. Derp. See! I’m gud at maths!

        Yes, I miscounted the Braves with wRC+ values above 120, but you screwed over D’Arnaud by only giving him 119, when Fangraphs gives him 120. Still, that’s a pretty darned good lineup the Braves have. They have a really good team, and they will be good for a while because nearly all of their young stars are locked into relatively cheap multi-year contracts. I don’t know what kind of sweet talking magic Alex Anthopoulos is making over there in Atlanta, but he’s made some fantastic signings.

        Meanwhile, Kershaw will be gone soon, JT will be gone soon with no one to play 3rd. TT is gone, so we got Lux at SS and a hole at 2nd. Urias is a Boras client so he’ll be gone. and Mookie’s arthritic hip is a ticking time bomb waiting to go BOOM! Enjoy the Dodgers historicness while you can because I predict they blow up the team and sell off everyone for prospects 😉

        1. So now you switch to complaining about the future. Vargas was voted AAA player of the year. You know what position he plays, right? Rios plays third, so does Muncy. Maybe you should follow another team. You seem to more know about the Braves than the Dodgers. Ur gud at being a downer. Math, not so much.

          Baseball Reference has d’Auraud at 119. 4 players is a far cry from 7.

          If you want to bash me, than don’t cry when I come back.

          So, I should of wrote a dissertation about why you’re negative? Even though you give us an example on every post. Explaination not necessary. No need to explain why water is wet.

    5. That take has been beaten to death here already. We all know that being the best in the regular season is no guarantee in the postseason. But if it’s meaningless then the 150 plus games I watched this year were a waste of time same for everyone else. Winning 111 games, means the fans.. who are what really counts.. got to see more wins than anybody this year. It means more than squat. And because of that we also get home advantage throughout till the end which is another boon for our fans who theoretically will get to watch more games than anyone in the playoffs should they go to the distance.

      1. How do you figure all the games we watched and enjoyed were meaningless?

        They gave us joy and happiness.

        1. He’s just trying to rebut my argument with a counterargument that is completely unrelated to the point I was making.

          Just to clarify to those who are triggered by my post. The Dodgers ARE the best team. It IS important that the team play games over the course of a 162 game season and demonstrate they are good. Getting home field advantage throughout the playoffs DOES convey an advantage. I’m glad they have it, and it’s been fun to watch this historic team.

          My entire point I was making with my post – my thesis, if you will – can be summarized in just three words: Don’t … Be … Complacent.

          Statistically speaking, the Dodgers will NOT win the World Series. Their odds are better than anyone else’s, but the odds are still not in their favor to win it all. So, enjoy this year for what it has been, and enjoy the playoffs as they happen with the understanding that the Dodgers, as good as they are, are still in for a fight. If you understand that, you will appreciate it more when/if they do win the WS.

          1. Statistically speaking, the Dodgers will NOT win the World Series. Their odds are better than anyone else’s, but the odds are still not in their favor to win it all.

            Please stop embarrassing yourself with math. If their odds are better than anyone else, then by definition, they are favored to win it all.

          2. *sigh* One more time. Let’s try this again.

            The odds of ANY team currently in the playoffs of winning the World Series are very low, although the Dodgers, by virtue of the fact that they have shown themselves to be the best team over the course of a 162 game season, have better odds than any other team. Nevertheless, their odds of winning the World Series stand at 34.4%, so “the odds are still not in their favor to win it all.”

  18. Watching Phillies (feelees the Joe Davis pronunciation) and Braves. Joe seems to be destined to be always paired with ex-pitchers who love to talk. John Smoltz must get paid by the word.
    Smoltz immediately offered the narrative we will likely hear repeatedly. If the top seeds struggle it will be blamed on the layoff. It they click it’s because they are well rested and able to set up the pitching.
    That conversation is so stale and timeless.

  19. I did not think Miguel Vargas would be on the roster… until yesterday. The Dodgers see him as a professional hitter who can deliver a key hit. Yes, he did not impress most of you, but I was impressed with his approach, and I likely saw over 200 of his ABs this year. He is a professional hitter. Maybe we will see this soon…

    OTOH, I “knew” Kimbrel would not be on the roster.

    I think Alberto will be in the dugout!

    1. I’m surprised they included Vargas even though I agree with your assessment of him being a professional hitter. Hanser is better suited for defense and against lefties. Vargas hits righties and lefties and has pretty much only played 1B and OF and he’s probably most comfortable at 3B. All positions with a lot of coverage.

      I’m also surprised at Dustin May. I would think it would have been beneficial to have another lefty in there to neutralize Grisham and to let May build up his workload. I guess they can always SIM game May on the off day between series.

      I love the roster. There’s no bad choices really.

  20. Seattle is doing pretty good against Verlander as shocking as that is. As poetic as it would be to spank the Astros for the championship I’d rather them not advancing to that point. They don’t deserve to even play. They’re as plastic as the turf named after them. The Houston Bakelites.

  23. There’s only 2 pitchers on the roster I’m afraid of (Heaney and Graterol) Heaney’s home run rate and Graterol against LHB, and I don’t want to see May relieving, better to start him because of the career slugging and walks against LHB, better any damage is done earlier in games so the offense has time to reverse the damage.

    As for the offense, I don’t want to see Vargas at all and I don’t want to see Gallo starting, he should be only used when an emergency home run is needed. I’m afraid of Lux’s offensive decline at the end of the regular season, hopefully he puts that behind him, and I want to see Smith starting every game, no Barnes.

    1. By the way, 2 surprises so far today, the Braves lost and the Astros are losing late in the game.

  25. I agree with including Vargas, he is the new next big star of the Dodgers… I knew it as soon as I saw him play, he is the Latino star player (not pitcher) that the team needed!

    What Puig could and did not want to be, Vargas will be!

  26. What’s going on so far today? I guess the pitching wasn’t hard enough in the WC round. Dodgers, take note!

  27. 9:37 PM ET

    Padres (89-73)
    Dodgers (111-51)

    SP Mike Clevinger R
    7-7 4.33 ERA
    SP Julio Urias L
    17-7 2.16 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup
    RF Mookie Betts R
    SS Trea Turner R
    1B F. Freeman L
    C Will Smith R
    3B Max Muncy L
    DH J. Turner R
    2B Gavin Lux L
    LF T. Thompson R
    CF C. Bellinger L

    Partly-cloudy-night
    3% Rain
    70° Wind 6 mph Out

    1. Los Angeles Dodgers NLDS Roster:

      How Acquired:

      Homegrown (8)
      Free Agent (8)
      Trade (9)
      Waivers (1)

      Acquired since end of ’21 season (7)

        1. San Diego Padres NLDS Roster:

          How Acquired:

          Homegrown (3)
          Free Agent (7)
          Trade (16)

          Acquired since end of ’21 season (9)

          Cleveland Guardians ALDS Roster:

          How Acquired:

          Homegrown (14)
          Free Agent (2)
          Trade (9)
          Rule 5 (1)

          Acquired since end of ’21 season (2)

          New York Yankees ALDS Roster:

          How Acquired:

          Homegrown (5)
          Free Agent (7)
          Trade (14)

          Acquired since end of ’21 season (9)

          Seattle Mariners ALDS Roster:

          How Acquired:

          Homegrown (6)
          Free Agent (3)
          Trade (17)

          Acquired since end of ’21 season (7)

          Houston Astros ALDS Roster:

          How Acquired:

          Homegrown (14)
          Free Agent (3)
          Trade (9)

          Acquired since end of ’21 season (4)

          Philadelphia Phillies NLDS Roster:

          How Acquired:

          Homegrown (10)
          Free Agent (6)
          Trade (10)

          Acquired since end of ’21 season (9)

          Atlanta Braves NLDS Roster:

          How Acquired:

          Homegrown (8)
          Free Agent (7)
          Trade (9)
          Waivers (2)

          Acquired since end of ’21 season (9)

    2. David Vassegh
      @THEREAL_DV
      Eric Karros and Steve Sax will throw out the ceremonial first pitch before tonight’s #NLDS Game 1, celebrating their 30th and 40th anniversaries of winning NL ROY Awards. #Dodgers #Padres

  28. Yu Darvish, who I still have some affection for, was asked how he would’ve reacted if he had been in Joe Musgrove’s position in the sixth inning Sunday:

    His response:
    “Anybody can touch my ears, touch my nose, touch my whatever.”

  29. Astros came back and beat the M’s 8-7 in the bottom of the 9th.

    I would not have pitched to Alvarez!

    I don’t fault the manager. It’s just my opinion.

  31. Too bad Alvarez was traded away for Fields back then.
    What an incredible hitter that man is. Imagine him in the middle of our lineup along with our big 3 at the top.

    Well, sometimes you get the Bear and sometimes the Bear gets you.
    No matter what, one of the 3 all time worst Dodgers players decisions. Along with Pedro, Piazza and Roberto Clemente.

    Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. The difference between Alvarez and Piazza and Pedro was that Yordon was a scrawny kid whom no one projected to be anything, Piazza was a star, and Pedro was on the cusp. His stuff was obviously filthy – they just questioned his durability. Andrew Friedman had no idea what he was trading, and the ASStros had no idea what they were getting.

  32. Those two pitches by Ray were both awful. Right down the middle with no movement. Just really, really bad pitching / decision-making. After the nice hack Alvarez took on that first pitch, nothing anywhere near the strike zone. Amazing job by Alvarez — but jeez, that was atrocious pitch selection and location at what might be THE pivotal moment of the series, Feel a little sick to my stomach for the poor Mariners fans.

  34. Had to be Alvarez.

    As Mark said. Bad trade but he was not even close to an established prospect. We traded him before he played a single professional game. I have no issue with how that went down.

    That said.

    Me, right now. I hate the Astros.

    https://youtu.be/DEKyx_eTxBQ

  36. The Pre-Game Show was all about:

    “… if the Padres starters can pitch like Aces…”

    “If the hitters can hit like they are capable…”

    “If Chickens had lips they would be people.”

    Shut up, Already!

  37. Ultimately… they came to their senses and they all picked the Dodgers.

    Big Papi picked the Dodgers to win it all.

    Even Ray Charles can see that!

  46. Bulldog correctly predicted the starting lineup!
    Solid win for Dodgers to start playoffs. Build an early lead against Clevinger, good start from Julio, and bullpen does the job with some defensive help.
    The scary part of this game was the offensive drought after third inning. Inability to scratch out another run or two puts added pressure on bullpen.
    Every playoff win is huge!
    Tomorrow is Kershaw day and great chance to win game 2!

  47. Dave Roberts guaranteed a Dodger WS championship and thats good enough for me. He’s never been wrong before!

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