Let me start off by saying that I really don’t like to throw out trade proposals or enjoy reading them. Usually, people want to trade for an All-Star by giving up the bottom feeders of the prospect lists or a slumping pro. With that said, let’s go ahead and take a stab at it…
The All-Star Game is the unofficial start of the trade season for me. Jeff Samardzija was famously traded from the Cubs to the A’s and had to change uniforms during the 2014 All-Star game weekend, and was deemed ineligible to participate in the game as a result. To add salt to the wound, he was given a generic jersey for his troubles.
Our own former Dodger, Manny Machado, played his last game in an Orioles uniform in the 2018 All-Star game. Afterward, he donned the best color of Blue, White, and Red and took over for injured Corey Seager at shortstop for the remainder of the season.
Those are some pretty big names to be traded during All-Star festivities. While I don’t think we’ll be making any additions or subtractions during the break this year, you know Andrew Friedman is working the phones as we speak. Most likely 24/7 during the next two weeks or so.
The deadline falls on August 2 this year, departing from the tradition of the last day of July. Andrew has already checked in on the best starting pitcher available, Luis Castillo (Johnny Cueto Jr.) of the Reds. We have also heard rumors of Brandon Drury and Whit Merrifield.
But then there’s this…
“We’ve expended a lot of future talent in the last five, six years. Obviously, we’re going to explore anything and everything, but we’re not looking to empty — we have confidence in the group we have here. It’s not something that will be a necessity in our minds. If something lines up, great and we’ll be around the backboard. But hopefully, it’s something that we can continue to fill internally.”
–Fabian Ardaya, The Athletic
So, Andrew Friedman is quoted as saying he probably won’t go big at the deadline, and practically the very next day, he’s in on the biggest starting pitcher on the market while his own starting pitchers lead the league in ERA. Classic misdirection from Friedman or true interest in Castillo?
The Dodgers have been in on Castillo for years, it seems. Recently it was mentioned that Andy Pages was the main target for the Reds to make this trade happen. It’s going to take more than just Andy Pages to land Castillo, but it’s more than a reasonable ask for the best pitcher at this year’s deadline.
Baseball is a very weird game. I mentioned Eddie Rosario a couple of days ago. He was bad with the Cleveland team, formerly known as the Indians, before the trade to the Braves last year. Afterward, he was a borderline MVP. In reality, he was the Braves MVP, providing a 903 OPS over the stretch run and a 1.040 SLUGGING PERCENTAGE!!! against the Dodgers in the NLCS. No doubt, there’s no way the Braves are wearing rings today if it weren’t for Eddie Rosario.
The Needs
We know that Brusdar was just put on the IL. I suspect it was more of a vacation than an actual season-threatening injury. After all, Brusdar Graterol was the busiest bullpen piece for the Dodgers this season, leading all relievers in games and IP.
On the other hand, the Dodgers have an incredibly long 40-man roster right now, checking in at 50 players. Some will be back this year, others will not. Kevin Pillar is out indefinitely, and Jimmy Nelson had TJ late last season, all but ensuring missing this entire season. But, a recent interview with Nelson revealed that he “has unfinished business” and is working hard at making a return this year. Hudson will not return from his ACL injury this season, but the remaining 7 players all have a good shot at returning. That list includes Walker Buehler, Danny Duffy, Victor Gonzales, Tommy Kahnle, Dustin May, Blake Treinen, and Edwin Rios.
The Dodgers also have some intriguing names that haven’t cracked the roster. Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, Dellin Betances, Jason Martin, Carson Taylor, hell, and even Petey Baez is vying for a return.
So, what do we really need if / when some / most of these players return? I can see that Mitch White probably won’t be in the post-season rotation, and you might want to protect against a Clayton Kershaw return to the IL at some point. But there are just so many starting pitchers on the roster, can we really expect this to be an area of need? After all, many on this site made a case for Anderson in the All-Star game, he’s surely post-season worthy?
Starting Rotation
Currently, the rotation is Kershaw, Urias, Gonsolin, Anderson, and White.
Kershaw probably has another IL stint in him before the season ends, but he’s as good as it gets in the here and how.
Urias is a borderline all-star but really ran out of gas last year. He’ll be a fixture in the postseason rotation if we don’t have to lean on him heavily down the stretch.
Gonsolin already surpassed career highs in games and innings. We really need to make sure he doesn’t suffer a similar fate as Urias did last year.
Anderson, the reclamation project, is by no means a workhorse. His career high in innings pitched was 176 back in 2018.
White will not be in the postseason rotation unless something goes horribly wrong.
Buehler, May, Duffy, and Heaney are all technically starters, but Doc already stated that Heaney would be on a pitch limit at around 75 pitches. That sounds more like a multi-inning lefty reliever to me. I think Duffy is in that same boat, and we don’t know if Buehler or May will be 100% effective.
The entire rotation has question marks, so I think there is some smoke surrounding Castillo. That and the fact that he’s an elite player and a righty that will be invaluable when facing righty-heavy lineups like the Yankees and Padres. Maybe Badger was right. Just about three months premature.
Bullpen
It currently consists of Kimbrel, Phillips, Almonte, Ferguson, Bickford, Moronta, Price, and Vesia. Ouch, I’m not sure anyone wants to see Moronta, Price, or Bickford in the postseason right now, even if they’re mostly getting the job done, just not pretty while doing so. Ferguson has been fabulous, but he’s barely pitched. We could get some really good reinforcements in V-Gone, Graterol, Heaney, Kahnle, and Treinen, but like the starters coming back, there’s no guarantee they’ll return to pre-injury form.
It couldn’t hurt to add a reliable arm to the pen for insurance.
Position Players
It’s been the Freddie and Trea show all year. Lux has been a pleasant surprise, Will Smith is one of the best catchers in baseball, and Mookie has shined while not injured. JT showed up recently. Beyond that, it’s been a crapshoot that’s formed one of the best offenses in baseball. That leaves three holes in the lineup mostly filled by a Gold Glove-caliber Center Fielder in Belli, a platoon in LF, and a resting spot at DH for Muncy and JT to share when Will Smith isn’t catching. As most people agree, the Dodgers can afford Belli’s glove in Center with an occasional walk, infield hit, or homer with his bat while hoping for another late-season hot streak like last year. We can certainly stand to improve at least one position in the field, at that is LF. We’re getting by with a resurgent Trayce Thompson and Jake Lamb platoon, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to have an everyday player out there in case the old Trayce or Lamb show up or get injured yet again.
The Targets
Starting Pitcher
Luis Castillo is the only SP on the market other than Frankie Montas that I would be willing to trade for. I don’t think a prospect package led by Andy Pages is unreasonable. It sure creates a hole in the future outfield depth, but he’s not a sure thing either.
Bullpen
There’s always room to add a reliever. It was recently revealed that AF hates to trade for them. He says the prospect cost doesn’t justify the value received. I agree with him here. We’ve been burned in the past after acquiring relievers. O’Neil Cruz for Tony Watson and Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields really hurts years later, even if both pitchers were effective at the time. John Axeford broke himself in ‘18 right after the trade and pitched just 3.2 innings for us. You win some, you lose some, I guess.
I can’t see AF targeting a reliever this year unless he acquires one as part of a bigger package.
Position Player
It’s LF or nothing for me. Sure, CT3 will come back eventually, but with his strikeout rate, I would prefer to use him as a Super Utility guy as we have in the past. We might get lucky with a Trace Thompson and Jake Lamb platoon, but it sure would be nice to get a reliable bat out there. Bradon Drury could be that guy, but I would rather shoot a little higher.
Ian Happ is my guy. He can play all over the field and has a year of control remaining. He’s got decent speed on the bases and is a good solid hitter with some pop and a lot of doubles. An all-around, very solid player and a switchy that kills lefties to boot. Maybe we can expand the deal to include Effross, Givens, or Robertson, as some have suggested.
The Chips
Let’s start by saying there just aren’t ten untouchables in any minor league system, contrary to the belief of most prospect-hugging bloggers. It’s easy to fall in love with your home team’s prospects, but only a few of them will be productive major leaguers. I’ll start by defining my untouchables as Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Michael Busch, and Miguel Vargas. But, even Busch and Vargas are a stretch for me, and I would include them in the right deal. Think Superstar, Juan Soto anyone?
Top Tier – The main targets coveted by other teams but aren’t untouchables.
Andy Pages No 4
As already mentioned, Andy Pages is the guy the Reds want for Castillo. Pages is our No 4 prospect and is legitimate in the power department. In 80 Games, as a 21-year-old in AA this season, he has 16 doubles and 15 homers. He’s also hitting just .240 with 78 K’s. This is a good time to cut bait on Pages. He’s going to hit a lot of bombs but probably won’t ever hit for a high average. He might just be the second coming of Cody Bellinger without the footspeed to play Center Field. Jose Ramos might have already surpassed him internally as a similar bat with a stronger arm and more range in the field. He has the same problems with strikeouts.
Ryan Pepiot No 6.
Similar to Josiah Gray last year, Ryan Pepiot has debuted in the bigs this year to show his stuff to potential buyers. The Dodgers don’t need 27 minor league starting pitchers to backfill an already strong rotation, so this is an area of depth with Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone leading the way. Nick Nastrini and Maddux Bruns lead the next wave of potential aces.
Landon Knack No 7.
He’s not lighting it up in Tulsa like Pepiot did earlier this year, but he is striking them out at a similar rate.
Middle Tier – The second prospect in a trade package.
Eddys Leonard No 8.
Great year last year, but hit a snag at high A. Still solid, he’s probably not a shortstop but could be a super-utility type or may find a home at 3B, 2B, or in the outfield if he can hit enough.
Jorbit Vivas No 9.
Just a step below Leonard with the glove, speed, and power but makes better contact. Most likely, home is at second base. We don’t need that as long as we keep Busch.
James Outman No 17.
He dominated Tulsa and hit a big snag at OKC. He’s 25 years old and can stick in CF where his bat might play as a likely 4th outfielder or a starter if his bat can keep up at the major league level. He’s old for a prospect, so now is the time to cut him loose if they can find takers.
Jacob Amaya No 19.
Man, I want this kid to be good. He’s from El Monte, where I lived until my parents decided to move to Orange County when I was 4. He showed enough with the bat early this season for a team to might want to take a chance on him and has enough glove to be a glove-first shortstop if he can hit enough. He isn’t a 1st division shortstop, so I wouldn’t hesitate to include him in a deal that pushed our odds for another Championship.
Mitch White
No longer a prospect, but at worst, he’s a backend rotation type, swingman, or maybe even a quality reliever. He’s not gonna headline a package, but he’s a useful player to a rebuilding team.
Andre Jackson No. 11
He’s on the development list right now after regressing from a solid showing in The Show last year. He’s got the stuff to stick in the backend of the rotation like Mitch White and could also be an effective reliever. His value is down right now, but you can imagine him being a very good pitcher if he can get those walks under control.
Kody Hoese No. 24
He’s now hitting 273 after another slow start. He’s about as old as Outman but was a former 1st rounder. Someone might want to take a chance on him as part of a package.
The Trades
Can AF pull off another miracle like he did last year? There are two trades that I would like to see happen to push us over the top in a big way. Not only will they resolve each area of need, they would keep our competition from getting these players that would fit oh so nicely on our team right now.
Luis Castillo for Pages, Knack, and White.
More than a solid return for Castillo. But, we might have to sweeten the deal a little bit as only one of them is a proven major leaguer, and I’m not sure Pages or Knack is of the can’t miss type of prospect. But, since they want Pages as the main guy, it just might be enough as is.
Happ and Robertson for Pepiot, Vivas, Jackson, Grove, and Amaya.
I think Pepiot’s stock is high enough that a straight-up trade for either Happ or Robertson might be seen as an overpay. It makes perfect sense to expand the deal for both Happ and Robertson in order for the Cubs to land Pepiot. If the Cubs get lucky, they’ll have a solid up-the-middle infield tandem and a couple of pitchers that could be backend relievers or rotation pieces. Pepiot is at least a sure thing mid-rotation starter with No. 2 potential. A solid haul for a rebuilding team.
These trades would also create a little more room on the 40-man to bring back the first wave of IL returnees. Three players would be added to the 40-man roster while removing six and creating three open spots.
What are your thoughts? Would you do these two deals? Would the Reds and Cubs do them? Who do you want the Dodgers to target?
Future Dodgers Down on the Farm By Mark T
The Dodgers drafted another Louisville Catcher, namely Dalton Rushing, with the 40th Pick in the Draft. MLB.COm had this to say:
“We think he’s an extremely talented player,” said Dodgers vice president of amateur scouting Billy Gasparino. “We love his strength, we love his athleticism. We thought he could hit with power and not chase outside the zone, and maybe a little underappreciated because he sat behind [2021 No. 1 overall pick out of Louisville] Henry Davis last year. We’re excited to get a left-handed-hitting catcher with power.”
We will have complete draft coverage after the draft is over on Tuesday. Baseball America Had Dalton Ranked #44, so he when about where they predicted. The fact that his is LH playes big! Here’s how Baseball America graded him out:
Dalton Rushing
Louisville C
HT: 6-1 | Wt: 220 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.4
BA Grade: 50/High
Tools: Hit: 55. Power: 55. Run: 30. Field: 45. Arm: 60.
A compact and strong catcher with a 6-foot-1, 220-pound frame, Rushing has been an impressive hitter throughout his collegiate career but didn’t get a chance to show his catching chops regularly until the 2022 season. Rushing split time at first base and catcher during his first two years—when 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis was on the same team—and played mostly first base in the Cape Cod League with Bourne in 2021, where he acquitted himself nicely, hitting .314/.401/.542 with six home runs and nine doubles. This spring, Rushing has been one of the more impressive college hitters in the country. Through 61 games, Rushing hit .311/.477/.693 with 22 home runs, 15 doubles and 49 walks (17.3 BB%) to 55 strikeouts (19.4%). Rushing has some holes in his swing, and he has struggled against 93-plus mph velocity throughout his career, but he swings at pitches he can do damage with and makes plenty of impact when he makes contact, with strong exit velocity numbers and good barrel rates. While Rushing’s offensive performance certainly improved his stock, what really pushed him into top-two round territory was his defensive play later in the season behind the plate. Scouts came away impressed with his defensive ability and wondered why he wasn’t catching every day for the Cardinals, with fine receiving skills and plus arm strength. He threw out 31% of base stealers and should only improve his defensive foundation while getting more reps and development time at the position in pro ball.
- OKC lost to Tacoma 6-3
- Drew Avans (.299/.866) was 3-4. The rest of the team managed two hits.
- It was a Bullpen Game, and Mark Washington went 1.2 innings, allowing four hits and 2 BB.
- Dellin Betances got the loss and pitched 1/3 of an inning, giving up 0 hits and 4 BB to go with 4 ER. His ERA sits at 10.57. I don’t think he factors in the Dodger’s future.
- Miguel Vargas is still in LA… Hummm….
- Tulsa Beat Springfield by a Safety – 16-14
- Jonny DeLuca was 1-3 with 2 Runs Scored and two BBs.
- Brandon Lewis was 3-5 with 4 Runs, 6 RBI, and 2 HR
- Justin Yurchak was 4-4
- Kyle Hurt was among the pitchers who were BOMBED. His AA ERA is 14.85. YIKES!
- Great Lakes did not Play.
- Rancho Cucamonga did not Play.
Interesting to say the least. Happ is intriguing for sure. I forgot he is a switch hitter. Freeman added to the All-Star roster as a replacement for Starling Marte.
How much control do we get with Castillo? My issue with Happ is Vargas. Do the Dodgers really believe in him or not. If you do BRING HIM UP NOW! If you don’t then trade him and go for Happ. Two words why AF and the Dodger brain trust consider the playoffs a crapshoot. Eddie Rosario! One role player gets hot and you can win or lose a series because of it!
Soler, Pearce and Arozarena other examples
I don’t think Vargas and Happ are mutually exclusive. Happ is a proven commodity and a much better shot to contribute in the postseason. He can affect the game in more ways than just the bat. I think he’s an under-the-radar pickup and gritty player. This would be more of an insurance move, and a better option than Vargas in the short run. But, I can’t wait to see Vargas!
B&P –
Very good assessment of the Dodger needs and possibilities at the AGG break. It really helps fans like me who need insights from others more knowledgeable about the Dodger’s current team performance; injury status; prospects; and possible trade scenarios. I am sure other knowledgeable posters on LADT will have their their own ideas and look forward to hearing from them too. I consider you to be my ” front office source” which has added to my enjoyment in following Dodger baseball the past couple of years. Keep up the good work!
Thanks Tom! I love the community here. Lot’s a great ideas for a lot of people and a lot of sarcasm and humor as well.
Agree. Great article. Thank you!
I might be interested in the Castillo trade, but I think another team will outbid the Dodgers. The prospects you suggested might not be enough. I wouldn’t have an issue losing any of those prospects. Your thought of clearing up some roster space by trading some prospects for the returning infirmed is a good point. Let’s let AF do his magic.
The Happ and Robertson deal isn’t really something I feel fills a glaring need. Happ is a nice player and if the prospect loss was not too severe it might be a good move. Although the Lamb/Thompson option is working OK for now. As Eric knows (lol) I can’t stand Robertson’s attitude or demeanor on the field. Is Robertson providing something better than we already have? I doubt it. Again, it depends on the prospect request from the Cubs. With the pitchers returning from injuries there should be enough arms to supplement any needs in the BP even though they may not all return this year.
If AF makes no moves at the deadline I’d OK with that as well. The team seems to be really coming together right now with the players we have .
Congrats to Freddie for getting a spot for the All Star team!
I’m with you Ted. I don’t think the Dodgers need to do anything except clear roster space. 😉 I would rather have Happ than that platoon though. He’s more of a complete player than Lamb or Trace (Literally) put together in the same platoon and gives you insurance in case someone else goes down. I love Ian Happ.
Robertson, at least, is another guy that can close games or setup games. He isn’t a need, but he is an upgrade over a couple guys that currently sit in the pen.
I’ve got no problem with having Happ over the platoon situation they have now. He is a solid player now that he is getting regular playing time with the Cubs. His switch hitting is an additional plus. All depends on the prospects needed to make it happen.
Love trades!
It’s a chance for me to use the ludicrously fun trade simulator!
The Castillo trade, according to that site, needs more meat.
Castillo’s value is 41.2
The sum value of Pages, Knack and White is only 32.2
It could work by adding Graterol, Amaya or Bickford.
Well… Could work in a simulated manner!
What the trade simulator does not consider is what the team you are trading with considers to be their most important needs, who they value in their system, and how they value your players. Thre is a high amount of human subjectivity in such activity.
@Mark. It’s just a trade value simulator.
But it’s (IMHO) much better at objective values than any fan base is (fan base’s over-value their prospects both short term and long.)
@Bulldog. Was not in any way meaning to impair your idea/proposal. Just giving more context! Really appreciate the time you put into the column. That deadline idea is interesting, I hope I have the time to do it.
Bluto, you should run the trades that actually happen at the deadline this year through the simulator to see how reliable/accurate it is. I did say we might have to sweeten the deal a little bit. 😉
I read somewhere that it was very likely that Duffy would not be back this year.
Ian Happ? If no one else is available, that’s fine, JD Martinez definitely won’t be traded, not with Boston fighting for a playoff spot.
Definitely of those two imaginary proposals, the one with Chicago would be much better.
Another catcher is fine, I think, but when will they take a third baseman in the draft?
They took Brendon Lewis and Cody Hoese, both third basemen, in the draft not long ago.
Here’s something to consider. Boston is in a similar spot with Devers that they were with Mookie. They very well might not sign him. They may be in the running for a playoff spot but with their pitching they have no chance. So to maximize his return they may be willing to listen and then there is big history between us. Go big or go home and AF has surprised us before! And he’s affordable! Bluto work your trade simulator magic! I don’t think it added up in Boston’s favor last time. That’s my move
Bear (no pun intended) in mind that I’m first and foremost a Red Sox fan, so my response and trade (anyone can do it here: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/) is unduly weighted for the BoSox.
In my reality, there’s no chance the Red Sox trade Devers. But Bogaerts can be had:
Bogaerts: 18.2
Stone and Heaney: 18.6
Good article/synopsis of the Trade Deadline B & P.
I like the Ian Happ discussion. I have seen him come up since he was a rookie since the Cubs are in my local broadcast area. Seems like a relatively doable piece to add without giving up any of our top rated prospects.
Looking forward to the All-Star HR Derby and Game. Has it been determined who is going to the be All-Star starting pitchers yet? Would love to see Kersh get the nod.
Bulldog I think you laid out very feasible trade possibilities. We’ll done.
By drafting Dalton Rushing number 1 shows AF may be willing to include Cartaya in a bigger trade. Perhaps Ohtani will be moving north to Dodger Stadium. This is a trade I would be willing to do.
It would be very hard for me to part with Cartaya in any deal. I don’t think people realize how talented and rare of catcher with his offensive profile is. BTW, he also has a rocket for an arm.
Waaaaayyyyyyy to much attrition and variance in player development to read anything like that into the Rushing draft pick, Scott.
Vargas is knocking at the door for sure. They probably want him to spend a little time in the Major League clubhouse before his imminent call-up.
Honestly, I’m not sure if this team has “needs” as much as AF has an opportunity to be opportunistic. We sure have a wealth of prospects, especially Starting Pitching. There isn’t room for all of them, so you might as well make trades rather than lose them to the Rule 5 draft.
The deepest system for catchers just got a little deeper. Left-handed catchers with power are basically unicorns.
If I were the Padres, I would do that deal for Soto in a heartbeat. They invested heavily in trying to be the team to compete with us, and are 10 freaking games backs! They better do something, but can they afford to in prospects or payroll?
Same with the Giants. They’ve also got some overrated prospects in their proposed package. Joey Bart is the catching version of MacKenzie Gore. Tons of hype, but a slow start to their careers. The pitcher in their package looks legit and the shortstop is probably more of a JP Crawford type as opposed to the big bat shortstops we’ve seen in recent years. Same can be said about CJ Abrams.
When I look at the proposed prospects, I don’t see a lot of can’t miss types in either system. Mackenzie Gore’s overall numbers look nothing close to Dustin May’s. Not that I would include May in a potential deal. I’m not sure Soto would push either team over the top. He would push the Dodgers over the top this year, but at what cost to the future?
A trade headlined by Cartaya and Miller would be better than the proposals from the Padres and Giants. I wouldn’t include either as both have ceilings in the upper echelon. Cartaya’s combination of batting average, on base percentage and power is off the charts for an outfielder or first baseman, it’s unheard of at catcher. Sitting over 100 is rare enough, he has a freaking 70 grade on that fastball and a change up and slider that are plus pitches. This is Justin Verlander territory!
I’ll be surprised if AF goes after Soto now, but if he does I suspect He might have to take Corbin as well.
Your comment about “needs” is spot on.
Nice writeup….I’m a big Ian Happ fan and think he would be a great addition. Gets on base at a high clip and plays all over the place….has Dodger Blue written all over him.
My untouchables are: Cartaya, Miller, Vargas and Pagés.
I really don’t like Busch, he has nothing average, everything is below average: his defense, his arm, his speed, his bat, he has a high strikeout rate that will only increase in MLB, his below average power doesn’t justify his high strikeout rate, he’s not Muncy, plus he’s almost 25 years old.
My package for Castillo would be: White, Busch, A.Jackson, Amaya and J. Martin.
My LF is Vargas, something similar could happen to Ryan Braun who was bad at 3B and turned out to be a good LF with a tremendous bat.
Cartaya and Miller would be my untouchables.
Both iMHO are in the line of a Piazza, Kershaw with that kind of unlimited potential. You dont trade those kind of prospects if you are the Dodgers. Better to use the money coming off the books to resign TT or make a big push for Ohtani when he becomes a FA.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Some guys outperform their tools. Everything you said about Busch was said about Utley. Busch already has 42 extra-base hits this season. He’s on pace for 75 – 80. That is NOT below-average power. Vargas has had one season where he topped 50 extra bases.
Busch has made just 8 errors this season, 7 at second base and 1 in the outfield compared to 13 for Vargas. I think prospects get a bad rap early that’s hard to shake. I think Busch fits that description, he’s tools are much better in reality than there were when the scouts set them.
I would like to keep keep all 4 of our top prospects. I think now is the time to deal Pages.
How about Andy Pages, James Outman, and Devin Mann for Ian Happ?
And Robertson. Done!
I can live with that trade but what do the Dodgers then do with TT and Lamb ? What about Rios when he comes back ?
Is Happ worth that sligt upgrade to sacrifice Pages ?
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No to Soto, no to Castillo, no to Happ.
Soto will cost too much. In dollars and prospects. Only way I would consider Soto if the Nats would be content with a package of for example Pages, Pepiot, Knack, White and one out of Busch/Vargas/Amaya,. That is a 5 for 1 swap with 2 major league ready pitchers , a top hitting OF plus a solid pitching prospect in Knack plus a potential gold glove ss or a top hitter in Busch or Vargas. If the Nats find a better package so be it. But an offer I would make if I am AF. Would also clear some space on the 40 men roster.
Happ is not that much better than the platoon of Thompson and Lamb. No way I include Pepiot in a trade for him and Robertson we need even less than Happ with all the bullpen arms we got.
Castillo is not needed because May and /or WB will be back in time for the stretch run and postseason.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Castillo isn’t needed because May and/or WB “MIGHT” be back in time for the stretch run and postseason. 😉
I think at least May will be back. From all we heard he looks fantastic.
IMHO another bat clearly is the bigger need for us looking at the struggles of MM, Belli and CT3.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Notes from Internet;
The Dodgers’ 2016 draft class alone has produced 15 major leaguers.
Edgardo Henriquez Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=TqGK7qWmuCU
Jay Jaffe Chat:
Mr. Burrito: If Dodgers win the WS this year are they a dynasty? Could they qualify even without a WS win this year?
Jay Jaffe: I’ve written before that I consider the Dodgers a dynasty, which to me is defined by the continuity of repeatedly contending for a championship rather than just consecutive World Series wins. Are the 2010, ’12, ’14 Giants a dynasty? in my book, yes, and likewise, I’d include the 1996 Yankees within their run
On the subject, I wrote this about the Dodgers after their 2020 World Series win https://blogs.fangraphs.com/making-the-case-for-the-2020-dodgers-place…
Cat Latos: How does a Cody Bellinger happen? It seems so obvious he needs to not swing out of his shoes all the time. Why does he keep swinging out of his shoes? 2019 Cody knew better!
Bellinger obviously had a lot of success very early in his major league career, but he’s been a mess. i think the shoulder injury is a big part of his decline, and his tendency towards relentless tinkering isn’t helping. I wonder if he needs some different voices in his ear about finding a plan and sticking with it.
Craig: Thanks for taking time today Jay, you have seen some great right field arms on the Dodgers, Reggie Smith, Raul Mondesi, Yasiel Puig, where does Mookie Betts rank among them?
Jay Jaffe: oh man, that is quite a list. I didn’t get to see enough of Smith but he had a strong reputation. Mondesi was probably the bes; even late in his career with the Yankees, the sight of him clearing a ball off the wall and cocking his arm made the hair of my neck stand up, as if he were saying, “Do you feel lucky, punk?”
Betts has a great arm, more accurate than Puig, and I think he’d be 1A on my list
Blake Seams: Setting aside Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw and Scherzer, who are the next four or five most likely to reach the hall of fame from currently active pitchers?
Jay Jaffe: It is anybody’s guess beyond those because nobody else is really close, and that includes the trio of relievers (Kimbrel, Jansen, Chapman) who have all hit some stumbling blocks. DeGrom, with his two Cy Young awards is the best-positioned, but he has to stay healthy. Cole has all the tools to make a run.
I’d put my money on those two but they’re a long ways off
pakkap: in the realm of player development, i haven’t seen a lot of hay made around the consistent growth of gavin lux – all of a sudden but 24, can play at least four positions reasonably well, and in the nl top ten in offensive win %, batting average, and on-base percentage. crazy what managing a player’s development thoughtfully and giving him an ever-increasing role can do.
Jay Jaffe: thank you. Every week I get somebody asking me why the Dodgers aren’t getting more out of Lux, and he keeps improving to the point that he’s a very nice player.
Patience wins out
Inaccessible Rail: How is it possible that Joey Gallo only has two career SFs?
Jay Jaffe: that one blew my mind
KEITH LAW chat
Nate: Keith, what are your thoughts on Dodgers SP prospect Gavin Stone. He recently catapulted to mid 50s on BAs updated top 100. Just curious if he pops up as much for you. thanks!
Keith Law: He’s a great story – signed under slot from Central Arkansas in the pandemic year – and definitely a prospect but there’s too much reliever risk to have him in the middle of a top 100.
Grover: I recall you weren’t bullish on Julio Urias being able to come back after his shoulder injury (I wasn’t either) but was this basically an outlier/one in a million type of thing or are we reaching a point with those types of shoulder injuries that they are more recoverable in the same way we started to see with elbow injuries in the last decade or so?
Keith Law: Extreme outlier – I think he’s the only pitcher ever to come back from that injury/surgery and hold up as a starter. Which is good news, but one exception does not disprove the rule.
Baseball America looks back at the 2020 draft first round ($$$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/reviewing-the-2020-mlb-draft-first-round-two-years-later/
Better than expected: Bobby Miller
Fangraphs on Dalton Rushing:
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pg=0&pageitems=10000000000000
“….Because Rushing is best at barrel low pitches, he tends to swing over tempting changeups below the zone, but he otherwise has pretty stable bat-to-ball skills, and he posted a nearly 2-to-1 BIP-to-whiff ratio in his first season of real reps. He’s a tip-of-the-iceberg college bat with exciting ceiling.”
Baseball America looks back at the 2019 draft first round ($$$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/reviewing-the-2019-mlb-draft-first-round-three-years-later/
Reasons to worry: Kody Hoese
Rise over Run’s Will Suge on Rushing:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xjUIvth0eqTXxCRXZ0ziNy5onblpdCEWD7A4D3tYI44/edit
“…Rushing has all the tools to crush baseballs at the next level. His lack of track record should not discount the amazing season he had this year. He should be able to be a great power hitter that can provide good defense behind the plate for years to come. I expect him to be taken off the board in the 2nd round in July. ”
DAN SZYMBORSKI chat
Matt (Oceanside): Regarding Bellinger, when I look at him and his athletic ability, plus 2019 performance, he seems like he has the talent to be that type of person. When I watch him hit though, yikes, his bat path is super slow with that stance. Do you think he is a stubborn person that doesn’t listen to coaches? If I was that bad at the plate, I feel like I would want to change that….new stance, shorter to the ball…something
Dan Szymborski: I don’t like assigning character flaws to players or, in most cases, to front office people either. But his Carlos Baerga career path is concerning
Two career sacrifice flies? WTF? That was a shocker for me. Thanks for the tidbits, I always read them.
Bluto, I like it when you do that, when you share those internet links, that job could be a weekly post on Ladodgertalk
* Great stuff BullPen. Very thorough reports on the players who could be part of deals. Well done.
I’m not much of a GM so I’m content sitting back and waiting to see what happens. The part of weeding out the 40 man roster of players who are redundant or log jammed in the system is a good one. They may help another organization but not the Dodgers.
* Wow, the new version of the MLB draft looked like the Academy Awards Show. MLB has certainly copied the NFL and NBA in turning this into a spectacle.
* It’s funny; I was drafted 3 times. Each time, I found out about it with a phone call the next day. I did’t even know the draft was going on.
* Rob Manfred gave his usual sub par performance. What a dweeb. I wonder if Rob:
Knows where Bing Crosby went to college?
Knows where John Stockton played college hoops?
Ever watched college hoops including March Madness?
I thought by now everybody knows how to pronounce Gonzaga.
When Rob introduced the 10th pick in the draft he said “Gabriel Hughes from Gone-ZOG-ah University. You know “the ZOGS”
Geez Rob, you might make a point to actually know how to pronounce the name of the kid’s school correctly.
Get off my lawn.
lol – Manfred is the absolute worst Commissioner. What a tool. Remember the junk of metal comment? Does he even watch baseball?
I don’t think he likes baseball. At least in its present form.
How about a playoff combo of May and Buehler for 9 innings throwing max gas. With Kersh, Catman and Julio. Anderson in long reserve role. Especially if our bullpen gets healthy and we can count on all 7 relievers. Well maybe not Kimbrel. Eric would have to give us the ok.
Hell Cassidy, we could theoretically have 2 4-man rotations, doubling up on starters going 4/4 innings each time out and rotating closers.
Buehler / Urias / Kimbrel
Kershaw / Gonsolin / Phillips
May / Heaney / Treinen
Anderson / White / Ferguson
We’d still have one spare arm in the pen, Graterol, in case you need a ground ball.
Good news Kershaw was named starting NL Pitcher and Shane McClanahan of the Rays will get the ball for the American League.
Nice write-up, Mark. More than a few things to chew on.
Well, Dylan Hernandez thinks the Dodgers should give up Diego Cartaya to head up a package for Juan Soto, who apparently turned down a $440 million offer from the Nationals. Scott Boras really wants to hit the $500 million mark. That would obviously solve any outfield depth issues.
But I think that’s absolutely nuts. Not just the trade, but the asking price to sign the player long term. Cartaya could be the next Soto in a couple of years.
Obviously, another starter would be nice, but the top two available seem unrealistic in terms of cost. But never count Andrew Friedman out. Maybe another reliever, but as Friedman pointed out —- they tend to cost too much and often don’t produce. He has history to back that up.
Ian Happ is interesting and probably wouldn’t cost premium prospects like Castillo or Montas. I think supplementing the rotation with minor league pitchers like Ryan Pepiot works for the Dodgers.
Not sure what you get from Dustin May. They’ll build him up to be a starter, but I’m sure they’ll be careful. Might be good for two to four innings here and there.
I doubt the Dodgers sit still at the deadline. But the team is pretty good as it stands. They could use another bat to emerge. Still, I’m not holding my breath. Mookie should bounce back, the rib injury obviously slowed him down. Glad to see Justin Turner hitting the ball hard again. That really helps.
Freddie Freeman was a great signing. Trea Turner is in the middle of everything. I will be beyond disappointed if they don’t bring him back.
Hey, I like Busch and Vargas. Dodgers have a bright future.
Who knows, maybe Friedman pushes the button on Castillo and Happ. We’ll see.
Good article in the Times today on the Dodgers and Angels moving in opposite directions.
Well, thank you for the compliment, but Bulldogs and ChickenLips wrote it. I am not nearly that eloquent… in fact I can’t spell eloquent!
I guess I should read the byline.
DJ Peters released by his KBO team.
What a waste of a great athletic body.
It’s not over, but….
Last year all pitchers. This year all position players.
WTF.
Nice, B&P!
Now, you gave us a great objective analysis. My question: what would you do? Sounds like you would trade Pages and a couple others for Castillo? I am not pro or con this idea; just curious.
Anyone going tonight? I’d love to grab a drink somewhere and boo any SF giant we see (and throw Dodger Dogs at any Astro we see)
Man, if I knew May and Buehler would be healthy, I would pass on Castillo. We just have too many pitchers. If I knew one of them would not return to form this year, I would definitely trade for Castillo. I just don’t trust Anderson and Gonsolin to finish strong unless they get some rest. I kinda feel that way about Kershaw and Urias as well.
I want Ian Happ badly. More so than Drury. Unless…
I wrote this post before the Nats put that big “For Sale” sign around Soto’s neck. He’s the closest thing you can get to prime Mike Trout as you can get.
I would trade for Soto in a minute. I’ll start by saying any deal including Miller is a hard pass. I would be more inclined to include Buehler than Miller. I’m also assuming they don’t need a catcher after trading for K-Bear. But I would include Diego for a smaller package, mainly because we already have Will Smith, and the Dodgers could probably offer him an extension. Both Cartaya and Soto are very special, but Soto is an alien, on another level completely.
I’m to make a better package than the rumored Padres and Giants deals…
Busch, or Vargas is the main position player coming back. Then, take your pick from any pitching prospect not named Miller. Then I would let them pick one from Nastrini, Knack, Beeter or Bruns. And one from Leonard, Vivas or Amaya. Throw in one of Jackson, Mann, Gove, Cleavinger, White, or Outman to round it off. Then throw in Carson Taylor to be K-Bear’s backup to put them over the top.
So let’s say…
Busch, Pepiot, Bruns, Amaya, Jackson and Taylor. I like this package more than the SD or SF packages floating around. I think you get two possible No 2 pitchers that are close to sure thing Major Leaguers and a sure thing bat with Busch. Jackson looks like a good bet to be a backend rotation piece of leverage reliever and Amaya, at worst, is a glove-first utility man. That’s 4-5 sure thing major leaguers and a backup catcher. A whopping 6 for 1! Hell, I might even take on a bad contract.
The Giants and Padres both have a catcher, which they don’t need after getting Diego. There’s no safe bet that either will be better than Diego. Busch is a better hitter than anyone in those packages, at least in the power department. Gore is a better prospect than Pepiot(At least more hyped), but Pepiot is better right now and Bruns has a shot at being an ace with 3 60 grade pitches right now. Both have shortstops in their packages that hit better (but not by much), and field worse than Amaya. If they don’t like Amaya, they can take Leonard, he’s got about the same bat as the other shortstops, but his glove isn’t quite as good.
Castillo has always intrigued me because he has Pedro’s things, but his performance, although it has been good, has not been up to his things.
The Dodgers have a reputation for fixing pitchers and they have shown that many times, could the Dodgers take Castillo from being a very good pitcher to being a great pitcher?
That’s what has always intrigued me, I think and I believe that yes, the Dodgers can do it.
Room for improvement: 1 bat either LF, 3B, or DH and 2 top notch bullpen pieces.
1 position player who can play LF, 3B, 2B or be a DH. In the case of picking up a 3B, J Turner can be the DH, if it’s a 2B then Lux can play LF, if it’s a LF then Taylor can DH, something like that, basically what I’m saying is we have flexibility. Whoever we pick up needs to be clearly/significantly better offensively than Taylor and Muncy. It’s not hard to be better than Muncy at the moment, so it’s clearly/significantly better than Taylor. I don’t count Lamb or Thompson in the equation because I believe they are only temporarily on the team and will fade eventually.
When it comes to the playoffs most games are close in scores and a bad game for a reliever can blow the game. As of right now there is only 1 reliever that I feel absolutely comfortable with on the playoff roster and that is Phillips. There is another that I might be comfortable with on the playoff roster, but I would like to see more of, more specifically to see if he can get a little better against RHB and that is Almonte. There are 2 relievers that I would trust in the playoffs if they could get back on track and they are Kimbrel and Moronta. There is one reliever on the IL that I would be comfortable with in the playoffs if he returns the same way he was before he hit the IL and that is Treinen. That’s about all I’m comfortable with in the playoffs and 4 of the 5 have “ifs” attached to them. And how many of those relievers with “ifs” attached to them are going to eliminate the “ifs” attached to them? I don’t know, I’ll wait and see. And there is still a lot of the regular season left and plenty of time for other relievers to make a statement. But with all that said I think the Dodgers could use 2 top notch relievers just in case.
I’ll remind everyone where our team offense, starting pitching and relief pitching rank. Number 2 in batting OPS, Number 1 in starting pitching ERA, Number 6 in relief pitching ERA. Do you see a need there?
To BulldogsandPenguins. Excellent job in naming which prospects are tradable. 2 of them that you listed I would like to keep, but in the right trade I’d trade them and they are Pepiot and White. The rest you listed are all tradable to me.
This is just my random thoughts not directed at anyone: I don’t get excited about prospects until they reach AA and do good there. Sorry Cartaya, I’ll talk about you when you get to AA and possibly do good there. I know he has huge possibilities so I’m not knocking Cartaya. My prospects that are untouchable are Stone, Miller, Vargas, Busch, and 1 borderline untouchable Pepiot, who I would trade in only the right deal.
My 2 cents for the day.
So far they have drafted and outfielder, two catchers , a second baseman and 4 shortstops. Am I missing something here? Do they not trust any of the SS they have in their system???????/
As above Bear, once you get past the first couple of rounds there’s waaaay too much attrition (natural and 40/60 roster-wise) to read anything into what players are drafted vs. organizational strength.
Many of these players are five to eight years away if they ever make it.
Everyone plays SS (well, almost everyone).
I played SS. A 6′ 4″ /225 pound SS and while I had the arm, the only thing that kept me from being the next Cal Ripkin was (1) not enough talent; and (2) instability to hit pitches that moved. Other than that, I would have e been in the HOF!
Humm, maybe the flame torch thingy is too close, LOL!
DODGERS ANNOUNCE SELECTIONS FROM DAY TWO OF THE 2022 DRAFT
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers announced their eight selections from the second day of the 2022 Draft, picking University of Central Florida shortstop Alex Freeland (third round, 105th pick), Virginia Tech outfielder Nick Biddison (fourth round, 135th pick), Arizona State University infielder Sean McLain (fifth round, 165th pick), P27 Academy shortstop Logan Wagner (sixth round, 195th pick), St. Mary’s College infielder Christopher Campos (seventh round, 225th pick), Louisiana Tech second baseman Taylor Young (eighth round, 255th pick), University of Virginia left-handed pitcher Brandon Neeck (ninth round, 285th pick), and Westmount College catcher Simon Reid (tenth round, 315th pick).
Yesterday, Los Angeles selected catcher Dalton Rushing from the University of Louisville in the second round with the 40th overall pick. The team continued to add on day two, landing one left-handed pitcher, six infielders and one outfielder, including one academy player and eight collegiate players.
The Dodgers selected 2022 Cape League All-Star, Alex Freeland, with their second pick of the First-Year Player Draft. The Central Florida switch hitter slashed .282/.570/.419 in his sophomore season batting in 38 runs, 11 homers and stole six bases in 42 games played.
From Virginia Tech, outfielder Nick Biddison comes off an incredible senior season with a stellar .351 batting average (88-for-251) with 47 RBI and 14 home runs. The 5’10” Virginia native was selected as a member of the Virginia SID All-State Second Team in 2020. Continuing with the fifth round, Los Angeles chose Arizona State University shortstop Sean McLain. In 113 career games, the California native owns a .328 batting average with just over 100 runs accompanied by ten homers.
Los Angeles next selected Logan Wagner, a high school senior out of P27 Academy. The 6’1” switch hitter is an Aurora, Illinois native and is committed to the University of Louisville. He was rated the No. 133 prospect in the draft by MLB.com. Christopher Campos, a shortstop out of St. Mary’s College originally from Hacienda Heights, California, was selected in the seventh round. He hit four doubles and two home runs over 35 games, while batting .299 with 16 RBI this past season.
Second baseman Taylor Young, out of Louisiana Tech, was the Dodgers’ eighth round pick. Young broke the all-time hits record at LA Tech with 297, while also breaking his own single season runs record with 89 in 2022. Los Angeles next selected left-handed pitcher Brandon Neeck. The University of Virginia Cavalier threw 42.1 innings this season, posting a 4.04 ERA (19 ER/42.1 IP) with 57 punchouts. In his collegiate career, he owns a 3.33 ERA (25 ER/67.2) with 101 strikeouts.
The Dodgers finished the second day of the draft, adding one catcher, Simon Reid, originally from McKinney, Texas. The college junior finished this season with 66 hits for a .400 batting average and 45 runs batted in. Over his career with Westmount College, he had 155 hits, 40 doubles, 18 homers, and 93 RBI.
An updated list of the Dodgers’ selections from the 2022 First-Year Player Draft can be found using the following link: https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/2022/all/team/dodgers
B&P, the Trade Simulator didn’t like your offer for Soto.? 177-63.5! If I was a Nat’s fan I’d be less than thrilled. I would think it would take at least 4 of our top ten prospects and no way I do that.
I’m willing to bet that no team comes close to the 177 value.
I thought I gave them a pretty good package…
Busch 3
Pepiot 6
Bruns 12
Amaya 19
Jackson 11
Taylor 27
If the fans want higher numbers instead of better players here’s 4 they can have from the top ten.
Busch 3
Pepiot 6
Knack 7 – Bruns is way better
Leonard 8
Hell, I’ll give them 5. Tell them to pick between Vivas and Diaz.
I would give them Pages, but the Reds want him for Castillo.
IF (BIG IF) Andrew Friedman wants Juan Soto, here is what it will take:
Pepiot
Miller
Vargas
Knack
Mann
Pages
… maybe more!
The Nats are not going to fall for guys who are not close to ready… and with star potential.
Jackson? Please!
Amaya? RU Kidding?
Bruns? Ha, Ha!
Taylor? No way!
Leonard? BS
You are going to have to pay out the Wazzzooo!
B – really enjoyed your piece today.
Soto – not many like him become available and we’ve got a lot of money coming off the books, plus looks like he wants to play for a contender – not out of the question.
With all above I’m thinking we sign Pat. PAT IS COOL WITH ME.