My Offseason Plan

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1. Okay, that’s interesting, Mark.

   Not sure you’re right about Clayton Kershaw, based on what the Dodgers say the scans indicate. Sure doesn’t sound like Kershaw is calling it quits. But I’m not convinced he can make it through an entire season. More of a wait and see approach. Unless, of course, you know something. But then again, no one else is saying that.

   Since everything at this point is pure speculation, but hey speculation is fun, right? Breaks up the winter.

   I’m still up in the air about Corey Seager. Drafted by the Dodgers and came up through the system. He’s our player and the thought of him playing elsewhere during his prime years really bothers me. Just like losing Pedro Martinez and Mike Piazza in trades. I’m not sure I like today’s game all that well with all the player movement. But it is what it is with massive contracts and all.

   So trying to look at this from a point of logic and common sense, Mark may be right. Do the Dodgers really want to hand out another $300 million contract? I read something similar on a Yankee site earlier. Looking into the future, maybe they want to wait and go all in on Juan Soto after next season.

   The Dodgers are set to move on without Seager. Just move Trea Turner to short, Gavin Lux to second, Justin Turner at third and leave Mookie in right. Time to give Lux a chance to play a full season.

   As to Max Scherzer, that’s also a tough call. He could get hurt, he’s 37 with lots of mileage on his arm, but then again Max could just grind through and be a catalyst for another title run. The D’Backs traded him years ago because they truly believed he would break down. He didn’t and they’ve lived with regrets ever since. Isn’t that why the Dodgers were willing to toss Martinez into a trade deal? So Andrew Friedman will have to weigh the risk versus the upside. Maybe that is where Trevor Bauer comes into play.

   Will Bauer be back? Do the Dodgers even want him back? Wouldn’t they rather have the opportunity to spend that money elsewhere? The answer to the first two questions is a hard No, which makes the answer to third, Yes.

   Imagine the outcry if Bauer were to return. Not pretty. My guess is the key players on the team feel he let his teammates down with poor decision making. Guessing Friedman and the Dodgers management feels pretty much the same way.

   While I’m still out on Seager, I’m moving on from Chris Taylor. But if Seager signs elsewhere, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Friedman re-sign Taylor.

   I’m thinking Kenley is gone, but I can see Joe Kelly back. Honestly I don’t know enough about Mini Ichero to offer an opinion, but Josh Harrison might makes some sense. Jon Gray could be interesting. Maybe they can fix his inning meltdown syndrome.

   But moving forward, those who take risk often reap the highest rewards. If you’re risk averse then being a baseball GM may not be in your future. Of course it helps if you make decisions for the Dodgers and paper over the mistakes with large amounts of money.

2. If the Dodgers do not sign Seager, Scherzer, or Taylor, and if they then do not somehow pick up two top pitchers, and one very good hitter, they have no chance to win the pennant, and may not even make they playoffs. A starting staff of Buehler, Urias, and a bunch of unknown commodities, will not do it. Heaney was awful last year. Gonsolin has proven very little. This will remind us of some of our teams of ten years ago.

   In spite of all the injuries, we may well have won the title, had Roberts not used Urias in relief, lost the game, and screwed up the rotation. Without the ability to command the best talent in the league, I don’t think that w will be seeing Roberts win any more pennants, until and if he does again have the most talent.

   1. Love the positivity!

      Last time I checked they were still predicted to win 100+ games. But maybe that estimation bakes in anticipated moves….

      1. Bluto, I have not seen any actual numbers on predicted wins, but apart from not wanting to bet against the Dodgers, I would be inclined to make a very big bet that they will not win 100 games next year. Of course, we don’t know what they will do before the season.

         We don’t know what the Giants will do, and they do have free agents, but they have money, and obviously a fine organization. San Diego will be much better; Melvin is an excellent manager. I don’t know that Colorado and Arizona will improve at all, but we won’t, either, from this last year. Just as a guess, I would say that we will win 92-97 games, and if we somehow do not add top starters, and lose Scherzer and Bauer, it could be less than that. But I could certainly be wrong, and I hope so.

   2. William, last year the Giants didn’t have any starting staff outside of hoping Gausman would earn is QO. Nobody heard of Logan Webb. Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, and Brandon Belt were done. Outside of Yaz, they had no OF. But they did have Buster Posey. And they went on to win 107 games.

      Buehler and Urias is a great start. Heaney may or may not be the next Robbie Ray, but you are giving up on him before he throws one pitch? He has gone on record indicating that the Dodgers did indeed find something for him to adjust and work on during the Winter. With the number of pitching development gurus the Dodgers have, I am not betting against them. The Dodgers will get a couple of more pitchers to build up the rotation.

      Offensively, Smith, Muncy. Lux, T. Turner, JT, AJ, Belli, and Mookie. How many lineups have that talent.

      AF knows better than anyone that the bench was horrible last year, and will do whatever he can to fix it.

      I do not care what the computers say about how many wins a team can expect. Those computers sure got SFG correct didn’t they?

      Everyone knows you do not like Roberts, but he is ideal for the Dodgers. Most Roberts haters on this site were singing the praises of Jayce Tingler before he melted down. You like Bob Melvin. Which one? The one who was below .500 with both Seattle and Arizona? The one who has 10 seasons with winning percentages and 8 seasons with losing percentages? The one with an overall winning percentage of .514?

      Or Gabe Kapler. Which one? The one whose career record was sub .500 before the magical 2021 season? Every manager makes bad decisions. Nobody complained about the use of Urias in the playoffs last year, but this year is different. Everybody other than Doc knew that Urias should not have pitched in relief. You say it was Urias, and I say it was that Buehler was gassed at the end of the season. In the NLCS he pitched a total of 7.2 innings allowing 13 hits and 6 walks (9 strikeouts) and 8 runs (6 earned). Or I say it was Pujols, Souza, and Betts who all struck out with runners on 2nd and 3rd in the very winnable Game 6. I do not blame Roberts or Urias for the loss of the NLCS. I give credit to Atlanta who went out and beat the Dodgers and then went on to win the WS. Atlanta executed and LAD did not. Atlanta was better at the right time. Or maybe the toil of the last month of the season finally caught up with the Dodgers.

3. Gray – never been a big fan. Would much rather have Stroman although it would cost more.
   Suzuki – intriguing and if AF thinks he’s worth it, OK by me.
   Kenley – I don’t think people realize how spectacular he was after the July meltdown. Very much worth 2/25 in my mind.
   Harrison – already discussed with you. Sign him up.
   Kelly – sure, why not?

   Mookie the 2nd baseman – you don’t move your star 300 million dollar player permanently without asking how he feels about it. If he’s OK with it I guess I’m OK with it, although that means we’re not playing the best right fielder in baseball at his position.

   Beaty, not Raley or Neuse.

   If JT is going to be the DH we need a third baseman other than Rios. Absolutely can’t count on him as the regular at that position. Major injury coupled with much too small a past sample size on offense.

   If we don’t have Scherzer, Seager, Taylor or Kershaw we certainly have money to sign Bryant to play third.

4. Buehler (R)
   Urias (L)
   Heaney (L)
   Gonsolin (R)
   Bauer (R)
   Duffy (L)
   Gray (R)
   May (R)
   Miller (R)
   Knack (R)
   After 1 and 2, I see nothing but big question marks here.

   1. Question marks yes, but some very talented arms. And those are just guesses. May won’t be close until at least mid season, and then he would need to be stretched out. I put him in the starting rotation in 23 not next year. Gonsolin as long as he is healthy, is pretty decent. He never really got in a groove last year. I have seen Gray pitch some pretty solid games. He also has a tendency to have that one really BAD inning. But since he is not a Dodger, nor is Duffy at this point, I don’t put them on my list.

   2. I’d go:

      Buehler–Ace
      Urias–Outstanding #2
      Heaney–Largely unproven
      Gonsolin–Willing to give him a shot but so far I’ve not been impressed
      Price–Over/under IP for us in 2022 is .5
      Jackson–Really, when do the Dodgers ever give these guys a chance?
      White–Probably more a swingman
      Bauer–He will not throw another pitch for us
      Pepiot/Miller/Knack–2023 a more realistic target

      We need AT LEAST one solid mid-rotation SP and probably another couple of depth pieces. I’d like to see an opening day rotation [whatever that means] of:

      1. Buehler
      2. Urias
      3. New Addition ala Stroman, Castillo, et al.
      4. Kershaw
      5. Gonsolin/New Addition

5. I like Harrison.

   I also like Lux coming off the bench.

   Curious to see what Rios has left in the tank after a long year off.

   1. Rios is 27. I think he is far from being out of gas.

      1. I’ll choose my idioms more carefully next time, Mr. 48.

         1. I call em as I see em…..He is a young guy. I have to believe he will be fine. And he has all spring to prove it. Screw idioms.

            1. I don’t understand those who are ready to hand Rios the third base job (assuming that JT becomes the DH at least half the time).

               Edwin has a total of about 170 MLB at bats (roughly 1/3 of 1 season). He’s proven he can probably hit for power, but his lifetime batting average is .207 with an OBP of .302. On top of which he’s coming back from shoulder surgery which could easily sap his power (his only positive stat) for most of the year.

               If Seager leaves and the DH is implemented we need to get ourselves a legit third baseman.

6. Angels are going to sign Syndergaard. Just read that a little while ago. Jays signed Berrios to a 7 year extension. So some teams ponying up despite the lack of a new CBA. I have read numerous stories that Seager is looking to sign a deal before the CBA ends. Have not seen where, but that seems to be his focus. I am with Mark as far as the Dodgers not giving another player a 300 million dollar deal when they have a player who is in only his second year of that kind of contract. Outside of starters, which is the main focus, the bench needs some serious retooling and just Harrison would not cut it. Beaty is serviceable and Barnes is under contract, cheap, and a very reliable catcher. His bat leaves something to be desired. And in my oh so humble opinion, they need an everyday 3rd baseman, or at least someone capable of playing there close to 100 games. JT is getting a little slower, and a little more hammy injury prone. Preferably a RH hitter with some decent pop. I think a guy like Josh Fuentes, who is a free agent and would not cost much, would be a good fit for that spot. He has decent glove skills and with some coaching could obviously get better at the plate. And he does have some pop in that stick. A couple of pluses, he is a California boy and would probably love playing at home. He is 28. As for Heaney, both he and the pitching coaches are pretty excited about what they feel they can fix as far as his mechanics and approach. The Dodgers do an excellent job of working a pitchers mechanics out. I cannot remember exactly who the pitcher was, but he was quoted as saying that the Dodgers coaches suggested changes he had never heard from his prior team. One thing I believe this team is excellent at is scouting the talent on other teams and making informed choices when claiming players off waivers or trades we might say what the hell were they thinking. Bickford and Bruihl were a couple of those guys as was Phillips. William, I believe you are underestimating the talent on this roster. I also think you are underestimating the owners and AF’s desire to win.

   1. Bear, I do hope you are right. This is fixable, if we go all-out to win. Right now, I wonder what the talent level will be next year, if we lose Seager, which I still think is likely. Justin Turner may have one last good season left. Muncy hopefully comes back strong. I don’t think Trea Turner adds too much, though his numbers may be good. We do not have much of a bench. We don’t even know how healthy Betts might be. So I am not too optimistic, particularly since if we lose Scherzer an Kershaw, or if Kershaw is just not good, we have lost two of our starters from the latter part of the season. The bullpen should be good, I hope we sign Knebel, I like him better than Kelly. It looks to me as if we are in transition for a few years. I think the Braves will be definite favorites to win the pennant in the NL.

      1. All reports on Betts so far say A. He is healthy. B. He will not need a surgical procedure on his hip. I think most fans go with the worst case scenario. Every one keeps forgetting that Price is still a member of this team. With a full spring to get stretched out, he could be huge. The guy has pitched so little the last two years he should have some mileage left on that arm. For all the bad mouthing and negativity he gets, Gonsolin still has a sub 3 career ERA for a period that would equal 1 MLB season. His career WHIP is 1.089. He is a 3.4 WAR pitcher over that time. Judging him on an injury plagued year is just a little unfair. He could be a solid 3.

7. Anaheim signs Syndegaard to a 1 year, $21mil deal.

   1. Saw that. One year, well that makes a lot of sense since the guy has been injury prone. Have a good season and next year make a huge splash when there are less superstar type pitchers who are free agents.

   2. Heard that a scout said that Syndergaard’s motion was so violent that he was destined to injure his arm. This was before his IR and surgery. It will be interesting to see if he’s changed his ways after the surgery

      1. They said the same thing about Dustin May.

8. Friedman has surprised everyone in the past few years with his willingness to make deals.

   Dylan Hernandez of the Times wrote today that it’s time for Friedman to “push the re-set button”. He pointed out some of the controversial deals that the made to re-set the roster in 2015, and suggests that may happen again. He observes that there may be more competition for deals to obtain talent from tanking teams like Cincinnati and Oakland.

   You can’t go into the season with a 2 man rotation plus Heaney. There are holes on the bench but the big problem is the rotation.

   If the Dodgers make some huge unexpected deals (entirely possible) we may be looking at a roster much different than what they ended the season with.

9. File this under the heading, do not mess with tradition. Rams ran their new uni version out last night in San Francisco and got rolled. I have seen a lot of posts on some streams saying the Dodgers should run out a blue jersey with the white pants on Sundays, or Fridays like the Giants do with their orange jerseys. I like the classic uni better. I remember when they did not have the names on the back. They went back to that for a couple of seasons early in the 2000’s. Most fans do not keep scorecards anymore.

10. The Dodgers have 22 minor league free agents along with their MLB guys. Some familiar names there. Morrow, Stewart, Wolters, Davidson. I think maybe 2 of those guys get another shot with the organization.

11. If you look at the players currently on the team clearly the top priority is starting pitching, right-handed relievers and bench players.
    Everyday player list looks strong:
    C Smith
    1B Muncy
    2B Lux
    SS TT
    3B JT
    LF AJ
    CF Belli
    RF Mookie
    The bank looks weak:
    Barnes, Beaty, Rios, McKinstry, Raley, Neuse, Recks
    The initial rotation looks good but needs to be strengthened:
    Buehler, Julio, Bauer, Gonsolin, Heany, White, Jackson
    The left-handed reliever roster looks great:
    Vesia, V-Gon, Ferguson, Bruihl, Clevinger, Price
    The list of right relievers is short:
    Treinen, Kahnle, Graterol, Bickford, Phillips andMay will help when he returns very likely this year as a reliever .
    Clearly what the team needs is starting pitching, relievers and strengthening the bench, Seager is not a priority for the Dodgers, CT3 and Josh Harrison make much more sense for the team and would strengthen the bench immediately.

    1. Not sure what you find objectionable about the righty reliever list. Maybe you think Bickford, Phillips and Graterol won’t duplicate what they looked like at the end of this past season, but if you do, that’s a nice strong list.

       I would still bring back Kenley at 2/25 if he would take that. I was just about ready to send him packing in July but what I saw for the balance of the year made me a believer and the fact that he’s now using multiple pitches has me further convinced.

       1. The list of right relievers DID NOT say it was objectionable, I said it is SHORT, more arms are needed to replace Kelly, Knebel and Jansen.

12. I like your thoughts, Mark. But, I think AF will do better than your wish list. I don’t know anything about Suzuki except he’s relatively young and is coming off his best season. I would go after him, but I wouldn’t just hand over the Right Field job to him.

    I’m expecting the Dodgers to run a similar payroll as last year. There’s no reason not to for the following reasons…

    They sold 500K more tickets than anyone last year. That’s a crapload of cheddar, so it isn’t like the budget has to shrink for financial purposes.

    They aren’t going to get under the cap, so there’s really no reason to reset. You might as well go for it.

    There’s competition in the division, so there’s motivation to get better.

    They are very afraid of becoming the 90’s Braves. They need another championship before any kind of reload.

    They still have a very good, very full roster with battled tested players in or entering their prime years.

    With that said, they don’t need to cut up their Bloomingdales credit card and start shopping at Target.

    I’m a little bummed out they didn’t pursue Thor. They plenty of really good pitchers out there, so it isn’t the end of the world, but a $21 M one year deal seems like a fair price. I guess they have plans on what they want and that probably isn’t a pitcher coming off an injury. They especially need someone they can count on when the season starts.

    Maybe they are waiting to see how much they’ll have to pay Seags before figuring out the pitching. If we don’t get Seager or another Shortstop that can play second, it will get pretty interesting. I wouldn’t mind going with a big bat in right field, but Castellanos’ defense hurts to even think about. I would really love to see Mookie take over second base next year, but I doubt that happens unless they can sign a right fielder. There aren’t any great options that will deliver Mookie’s defense with middle of the order power from the right side. So I guess Suzuki is worth some risk? I would rather they trade for Hanniger or even bet on a Trey Mancini rebound.

    I’m fine with your bench, but we really should have two RH bats in there. Right now, we don’t have any. I don’t have a lot of ideas here. In a perfect world, one would be an infielder and the other would be an outfielder. I like that Lux can play infield and outfield. Neuse and McKinstry both look like below average defenders. I’m not a big Beaty fan. His glove is a disappointment as is his inability to hit lefties.

    We really need to concentrate on Seager, Story, Correa or Semien. Then get a good reliable pitcher, then concentrate on the bench. Kenley would be a nice have, but not a necessity.

13. As I wrote to William above, while the LAD rotation does not look as good as prior years, most would take what the Dodgers have right now compared to what the Giants rolled out in 2021. A broken down Cueto, a career sub.500 DeSclafani, an Alex Wood most fans other than me did not want to see in the LAD rotation, and a kid (Logan Webb) who had never proved anything, to go along with a total question mark in Kevin Gausman. They won 107 games with that rotation.

    The Dodgers believe they know how to fix Heaney, have relayed it to him, and he is excited to make those adjustments and get back on the mound. As Bear noted, Heaney told the Dodgers that nobody ever told him what LAD pitching gurus saw. You really want to bet against the pitching development rich LAD staff? I would be foolish to suggest he will be this year’s version of the 2021 Robbie Ray, but I will go on record and say he will improve fairly significantly.

    AF has already said that his #1 priority is to rebuild his rotation. Why do people doubt him? As long as Clayton Kershaw says that he is fine, I am going to believe him. I have no reason to doubt him. I think AF is giving Clayton and Ellen the opportunity to make what is the best deal for him and his family. Maybe the PRP injections will prove to not work, and he will need TJ surgery. Okay, then he does retire.

    I do not have any clue if AF is looking for a top of the rotation pitcher (I doubt it), a mid-rotation pitcher (probably), or just more depth. The Tigers signed Eduardo Rodriguez for a 5 year $77MM deal ($12.833 AAV). I think Stroman is looking for $100MM plus. IMO he is not worth that level of a contract. He will be 31 next year and has a 61-60 record with a 3.63 ERA and 1.266 WHIP. In 1,028 career IP he has only 853 Ks, and has a K/BB ratio of less than 3.00. He is a groundball pitcher meaning he is going to need a good defensive infield to take advantage of his style of pitching. I would be okay with Steven Matz or Jon Gray as middle of the rotation types. I would also kick the tires on Anthony DeSclafani who pitched very well for SFG. There are others who if signed (or traded for) I am sure that many on this site will say that AF has lost his mind.

    Jon Gray reminds me of Jeff Samardzija. They are going along swimmingly and then they lose it for an inning. Samardzija never did figure it out. Will Gray? His splits indicate that he is actually a better pitcher in Coors than he is away. But his splits are very close home and away (4.5 ERA). I still think Colorado will find a way to re-sign him. He belongs in Colorado.

    Matz is a lefty but is a New Yorker who may be more comfortable in the East. Maybe he signs with one of the NY teams or re-signs with Toronto (they are close to being more than contenders). I like him in LA. It is a big city without being a big city obnoxious attitude.

    I do not see Cincinnati trading Luis Castillo without a huge overpay, but Sonny Gray is a real possibility. I would still see what it would cost for any of the Oakland arbitration eligible pitchers…Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, or Frankie Montas. Bassitt and Manaea are both in their final year of arbitration, while Montas is entering his second year. I also think it is entirely possible that AF will get another reclamation project pitcher as depth.

    In all candor, I think I will be fine with whatever AF decides on the starting rotation. I am ready to live and die with Mitch White and Andre Jackson battling for one of the spots. I still believe that White is the new Ross Stripling swingman, but maybe he surprises if given the shot. I am more concerned with how he is going to rebuild his bench and how he expects to address 3B.

    1. We agree on the rotation. That’s why I have been talking about 3rd base (Chapman).

       I also like Lux as a starting middle infielder .

    2. The Ultimate Voice of Reason!

       Even without Trevor Bauer, I would not be afraid of the rotation I put up.

       If the Dodger Pitching Gurus can fix Heaney, why not Gray?

       Also, who knows if Miller or Knack might step up?

14. Playing an average or above average defense at 2B and on offense a .245- .255, 12-15 HR, 70-75 RBI and 10-15 SB, in his first full year, is more than adequate for Gavin Lux.

15. Bring Seager back and move him to 3b in 2023.

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