Much has been written about the slow start of Gavin Lux’s MLB career. Mostly by impatient fans. Fans get excited about players when they read stat pages, and claim them to be a can’t miss player. Many are now talking about Andy Pages, Eddys Leonard, Miguel Vargas, Ryan Pepiot, and Bobby Miller in the same context today. And to a lesser degree, Michael Busch, James Outman, Brandon Lewis, Landon Knack…Many have given up on Kody Hoese and file him in the Jeren Kendall column. Most of the fans have never seen any of the players play even though MiLB TV is relatively inexpensive, and Rancho Cucamonga is close for many. Some have seen prospects in the back fields at Glendale. Some can and have make it to Great Lakes. For the record I have seen every one of the above on multiple occasions, and I believe all will make a ML roster at some point. How successful remains to be seen. All have positive skills, and all have holes in their game. Of those mentioned, only Pepiot has reached AAA, and he was rudely welcomed at that level. I particularly follow Pepiot quite a bit as he is my favorite LAD MiLB pitcher, and has been since the day he signed. I cannot answer why anymore than I can say why Junior Gilliam is my all-time favorite LAD. He just is. Everybody has the right to root for any player for any reason.
I used to love DBM’s favorite MiLB players. She would constantly ask me how they looked. We had some very good conversations about some relatively unknown MiLB players. One of her favorites, Ryan Moseley, is still on the OKC roster. He still has a long way to go from OKC to LA, but he is still in the game.
DC and I have been communicating about MiLB players since 2016 as we both followed the Great Lakes Loons and their championship run. In particular, we discussed the little known and unheralded LHP, Caleb Ferguson. I remember writing about Caleb Ferguson on this site from the beginning (2017) and most had absolutely no idea who I was writing about. DC and I have had multiple email conversations since where we talk about our favorite MiLB players. While it is very easy to follow the Corey Seager’s in MiLB, we both like to “brag” about the lesser known talents. DC was writing about Zach McKinstry before most even knew he was a LAD prospect.
Many have given up on Kody Hoese and file him in the Jeren Kendall column. Admittedly, I seem to fall in that column, as I was never that big on Kody from the draft. I am by no means a prospect guru. I watch a lot of videos, but I never film them. I do not see the players in HS or college or internationally. I have missed on more than I can count. I would say by biggest miss was 2015 2nd round draft choice LHH OF Mitchell Hansen. Hansen was a 6’4” OF from Plano, Texas. I have an affinity for Texas kids. Again, I do not know why, but they rarely disappoint. Hansen had a scholarship offer to Stanford, and the Dodgers offered enough to buy him out. I followed him from the beginning, and I was more than disappointed. Hansen was never promoted above low A. In 2019, he found himself in Independent Ball, and was out of baseball after the year.
Another of my favorites was a SS out of Ole Miss, Errol Robinson. I am one who believes in defense, so I gravitated to Robinson mostly because of his glove. He was considered a premium defensive SS. Errol jumped out early on and was pushed up the organizational ladder where he stalled at AAA/AA. He was waived by LAD and was picked up by Cincinnati. He was released after the 2021 season. Admittedly, I hope he gets picked up by someone in 2022. I no longer have visions of Robinson making ESPN web gems, but he is the type of player whose attitude can be infectious. I hope he stays in Professional Baseball in some capacity.
So we all know that prospects are just that…prospects. Some get a little more rope than others. Obviously the more $$$$ invested, the more the team will try to hold on to them and try for something positive. Players who hit like Jeren Kendall and are not given any significant bonus $$$$ would probably have been sent packing after a similar 5 years to Jeren’s. Everything I have heard or read about him says he is a very good person, one worth rooting for. I still wish him luck, but I do not expect to see him in any LAD lineup.
I follow MiLB religiously. I watch more MiLB games than the MLB Dodgers. I have seen LAD prospects in Sacramento (OKC), Modesto and Stockton (Rancho). And I believe the best way to build an organization is thru the draft and international signings. There is something about homegrown players that I get excited about. With that said, some of the expectations some out there have on what the Dodgers prospects will be doing next year are just not realistic (IMO). Miguel Vargas and Andy Pages will not be getting called up to LA next year. Bobby Miller will not make the roster or be called up in September. I do not believe Ryan Pepiot will get a call as he will need to stay in AAA all year as a starting pitcher. The Dodgers have enough arms for the bullpen that they are not going to waste bringing up Pepiot early. I am not 100% convinced that he will be a starting pitcher, but he deserves every opportunity to prove that he will be in the rotation by 2023. He needs confidence in AAA.
LAD does not push their starting pitching prospects. Take a look at the OKC rosters that last several years, and look at the number of 30+ has beens or never was pitchers on the roster. (Last year’s OKC rotation was as follows (by starts):
Aaron Wilkerson (32 years old) – 19 games started
Yefry Ramirez (27 years old) – 22 games started
Austin Bibens-Dirkx (36 years old) – 17 games started
Mick Kickham (32 years old) – 9 games started
Markus Solbach (30 years old) – 9 games started
Mitch White had 7 starts with OKC. Is he a starter or reliever? I think he is the new Ross Stripling. After Mitch White was drafted he garnered a lot of attention. He made Rancho as a 21 year old and Tulsa as a 22 year old before injuries took over. After 2019, most fans had written him off. In 2020 ST he was deemed ready for the rotation after a gem he through against LAA. Such are the ups and downs of prospects from fans. Look at the rides MacKenzie Gore (Pads) and Forrest Whitley (Cheaters) have taken from a can’t miss to we are still hopeful. AAA humbles a LOT of pitchers.
AF was so convinced that Mitch White and Andre Jackson were ready to join a WS caliber rotation that he signed Andrew Heaney for the rotation. Below is a synopsis of how (not) ready the LAD top pitching prospects are. However you want to phrase it, the LAD pitchers are not pushed. They have inning and pitch limits.
Ryan Pepiot – 124.2 MiLB IP (#2 prospect)
Bobby Miller – 56.1 MiLB IP (#4 prospect)
Landon Knack – 62.1 MiLB IP (#8 prospect)
Clayton Beeter – 52.1 MiLB IP (#9 prospect)
None of those prospects are ready for the bright lights of LA. The two pitchers in the organization who will get a chance to join the rotation are the aforementioned Mitch White (338.1 MiLB IP) and Andre Jackson (278 MiLB IP and #7 prospect).
James Outman is not going to be the 4th or 5th OF as he will need to play every day at AA/AAA rather than sit on a bench. Michael Busch will be pushed to AAA, but he is going to need to prove that he can stay healthy for a full year, as well as improve his keystone defense. He is more likely a DH in the future.
There is not one LAD top prospect who will break camp with the team next year. There may be relievers who will get pushed and called up during the season, but not starting pitchers or position players. It is possible that we will see some of Nick Robertson (23), Landon Knack (24), Marshall Kasowski (27), Mark Washington (26), Cameron Gibbons (27), Guillermo Zuniga (23), and Aaron Oschenbein (26) as relievers
Don’t look now, but the defensive whiz SS, Jacob Amaya (another of my favorites), has started to hit at the AFL. Every MiLB scout who has put forth an opinion has proffered that Amaya has the requisite skill and baseball IQ to stick at SS. But he needs to hit. He started to get more comfortable at the plate at the tail end of his AA season, but is now starting to get comfortable at AFL. With 44 AB, Jacob is now hitting .318/.455/.568/1.023 with 2 doubles, 3 HRs, 6 RBI, walked 11 times and struck out 10. Yes it is a small sample size, but he is going in the right direction. I could not be happier. I tabbed him when he was drafted and wrote about him. His cousin lives in Reno and is friends with my son, read what I wrote and was excited to see Jacob get some attention. I will continue to be a cheer leader for Jacob Amaya.
While I am at it, here are the stats for the rest of the Dodger prospects in the AFL.
James Outman – 60 AB, .300/.417/.600/1.017, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HRs, 10 RBI, walked 11 and struck out 19.
Kody Hoese – 48 AB, .222/.283/.375/.658, 1 double, 2 HRs, 5 RBI, 3 walks and 15 strike outs.
Carson Taylor – 28 AB, .357/.379/.571/.941, 2 HRs, 5 RBI, 1 walks and 5 strike outs.
Landon Knack – 5 games, 14.2 IP, 2 HR, 5BB/16K, 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .241 BAA
Kyle Hurt – 8 games, 11.2 IP, 2 HR, 10BB/13K, 4.63 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, .200 BAA, 2 saves in 2 save opportunities.
Bobby Miller – 5 games, 10.0 IP, 3 HR, 7BB/10K, 9.90 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, .263 BAA
Jeff Belge – 8 games, 7.1 IP, 1 HR, 12BB/12K, 18.41 ERA, 2.86 WHIP, .310 BAA
One look at the walks and we can glean what the problem with the pitching is. GET THE BLOODY BALL OVER THE PLATE!!!
Sunday was tha AFL All Star game, and the Dodgers had three participants, Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, and James Outman. Here is what each of them did.
Bobby Miller tossed a 1-2-3 inning in relief in the third, setting down Top 100 prospects JJ Bleday (No. 71), Gabriel Moreno (No. 32) and Triston Casas (No. 18) in order. The Dodgers’ No. 4 prospect has flashed triple-digit velocity with his fastball in the Fall League. Eighth-ranked prospect Landon Knack relieved Miller in the fourth and allowed one run on a long home run to Hunter Bishop in his inning in relief, striking out one and walking one. James Outman went 0-for-2 with two strikeouts for the West but flashed the leather with a diving catch in center field in the third to rob Moreno of a hit. Los Angeles’ No. 27 prospect has a 1.017 OPS with seven doubles, a triple and three home runs in 18 AFL games.
Vazquez, Pages, Busch, Outman, Amaya, Hoese, Miller, and Knack have reached AA. Carson Taylor and Jeff Belge have reached A+ at Great Lakes. Kyle Hurt has reached A level at Rancho. They have a ways to go.
The Dodger prospects are good (not great or elite). BE PATIENT with their development. Do not expect these guys to hit the major league cities and thrive before they prove themselves consistently in MiLB. In the interim, LAD has a lot of holes to fill. The Dodgers at AAA last year are not expected to be anything but reserves and AAAA players (Reks, Raley, Neuse). Nothing wrong with that, but the ML roster is going to need to fill a few holes. If they cannot expect much help from MiLB IN 2022, and they expect to contend for the WS (they do), AF is going to need to get help from FA, trades, and non-tender waiver wire players. Some of these prospects could be packaged for help via a trade.
I agree with MT that too many out there look at the back of a player’s baseball card stats and determine that a player cannot pitch or play well enough to be a ML pitcher/player. I am not about to go on record and say that Andrew Heaney is going to have a 2022 similar to Robbie Ray’s 2021 after multiple poor seasons. But the guys that get paid to look at a pitcher/player and make some innocuous adjustments they see that might turn the player around, I am not going to pooh-pooh their judgement. Yes, AF has gone to the “scrap heap” to pick up players. And yes he has missed on most, but he did not miss on JT, or CT3, or Max Muncy, or Andrew Toles. So he has more than earned the right to select pitchers/players who fans would pass on.
I like Bums’ trade scenarios. Always have. I do not find them credulous, but I am no GM so my opinion isn’t any more valid than his. He does pick his favorites (Mitch Haniger and Gleyber Torres). And now he seems to be zeroing in on Matt Chapman and Byron Buxton. I am clear that I have no fascination with Chapman and would avoid him at all costs. Most on here were complaining about CT3 and his proclivity to striking out, and he did strike out a lot (167 K – 28.7%). Matt Chapman was much more of a strike out victim (202 K – 32.5%). He is not a very clutch hitter for a power hitting corner infielder. For 2021, .228/.329/.341/.370 WRISP and .167/.322/.354/.676 WRISP w/2 outs. Mow if they could get the other Matt (Olson)…
The next season that Buxton has a complete season will be his first. He has played 7 years with Minnesota and has played more than 92 games just once. He cannot stay on the field. The Dodgers had their share of injuries that crippled them in 2021. You want Chapman and Buxton presumably because of their glove. Why stop there. Might as well sign Andrelton Simmons to play SS and trade for Kolten Wong to play 2B. Who cares whether they hit or not, just as long as they play defense (although Torres is nowhere close to being a plus defensive player).
I do not see AF trading for a significant regular position player or signing any high contract FA player other than their own. I think he will concentrate on starting pitching and bench help. And I think his pitchers will be more along the lines of Andrew Heaney rather than Max Scherzer. AF does not need to protect any of his young top prospect pitchers this year (and only Pepiot next year). So I would guess that AF will be looking for short term deals to bridge the gap. That does open the door for Scherzer. There is also reported interest in Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo who would be short term as well. Oakland’s Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas also figure to be available. AF said the following regarding this winter’s goals with respect to starting pitching:
“I think from an ideal standpoint you have a fully mature starting rotation with upper-level depth behind it,” Friedman said this week. “That’s the goal every year, to have that. Some years that’s more realistic than others. We have a really good crop of minor-league pitchers coming. So it’s about how to kind of bridge the short term and not lock up roster spots with the pitching spots looking out and preventing opportunities. It’s how to balance the two that’s the trickiest part of what we’re trying to accomplish this offseason.“
I also would not at all be surprised to read that AF has traded Trevor Bauer for another high salaried player who has fallen on hard times.
While I may speak patience with the LAD prospects, I do not have that patience for hitting coach RVS. When hired, I said that I will wait to form an opinion even though I had my doubts. MT likes to point out the number of LAD runs scored and number of HRs to prop him up as a viable ML hitting coach. I look at the all or nothing approach the team uses. With the power talent the Dodgers have, they should be at the top of HRs by team and runs scored. But their apparent lack of ability to manufacture runs, especially late in the games (like the Giants did during the season, and Atlanta did in the NLCS), speaks volumes about RVS’ ability to foster a bat to ball skills approach. I caught a twitter response from former ML 2B, Adam Kennedy to the following Alex Wood tweet:
Alex tweeted:
“Also, just because you played Major League Baseball doesn’t mean you know anything at all so don’t get it twisted. Some of the smartest people I have ever met in baseball never played a single game professionally or in the big leagues.”
Kennedy’s response:
“Well it means something to actually stand on the mound or in the box and compete. And standing in those two spots feeling confident or struggling are things the smartest guys you know haven’t experienced or account for.”
You can place me in the Adam Kennedy camp for this one. I find it hard to believe that MLB players take seriously a player who could not hit HS pitching and went 1-7 with 3 K’s in his one year at Cuesta Junior College. At least Brant Brown had parts of 5 seasons in MLB, and Aaron Bates did make the Show for 12 PA. RVS is a one approach hitting coach, and when that approach falls flat, he does not seem to be able to find a way for his hitters to change it up when the game calls for it. While I have had enough of the experiment, I do not think there will be any change.
Great write-up Jeff. Very impressive research with the right amount of detail and opinion without bloviating. I completely agree with your comments on RVS. I too want to see him be a former Dodger hitting coach as I’ve seen enough of his philosophy.
In game three of the NLCS with the Dodgers down 5-2 in the 8th inning I saw Will Smith go oppo for a base hit and Pollock go up the middle for a base hit before Bellinger went yard for a three-run HR. Too often the Dodgers lacked the mindset and execution to shorten the swing for a base hit, to think oppo, to hit behind the runner and the team seemed far too reliant on a HR to plate runs. Game three (at least in the 8th inning) seemed to be the exception.
Haven’t heard much about any coaching staff changes, but you can count me in the crowd as someone who wouldn’t mind seeing RVS gone and some new life “injected” into our offensive game planning and execution. Not sure who that might be, but then again I knew nothing about RVS before he was hired.
A seasoned bench is needed and required from FA and trades so we don’t have to experience AAAA players from the minors producing nothing in key situations. Rios if healthy should help.
Nice write-up Jeff. Looks like 2023 we should have more depth on the Dodger roster.
In defense of RVS I will say that if the Dodgers had benched guys like Kiké, Joc, Ríos, or players like them, instead of Souza Jr, Burns, etc. it is very likely that the Dodgers would have been the champions.
We may or may not like the team’s approach to offense but the positive results are undeniable; If the team had this same approach to RVS combined with playing small ball they would have won more than 106 games?, I don’t know, what if I know it would be more fun to watch.
As for Freidman’s statements, the guy is quite clear, the team’s priorities are starting pitching, with short contracts to serve as a bridge for the guys who are on the way and strengthen the bench, the Dodgers cannot be in better hands.
The hitting brain trust did seem to help Bellinger around the time of the playoffs. Very small sample size, but encouraging.
During the playoffs you saw teams having to soften their shifts as players were hitting against them. As NorCal pointed out, Smith did this in game 3. How much of this can be taught and to what extent will AF look for bench players who can do so?
Another grand slam for sure Jeff. I too recall those 2016 exchanges we had.
I share your MiLB religion. Most of my time is spent on following the Dodgers minor league teams. As mentioned before, all west coast games start around 11:00 P.M. my time. I check in the Dodgers the next morning but have quite a bit of minor league info before I go to bed. I subscribe to MiLB.TV but not MLB.TV.
I also don’t see any MiLB players breaking through with the Dodgers this year. If I had to pick one who might surprise us it would be Michael Busch.
Another guy that I think will make an appearance perhaps in 2023 is right-hander Justin Hagenman. He is one of those invisible guys who just goes out and plays the game. With Tulsa he made 38 appearances with 16 of those for two or two plus innings. He had two saves in two save opportuinties. He retired one batter when required. He elevated his strikeout count to 77 in 62.2 innings pitched.
Quite often when I saw him pitch with the Drillers he came in with men on base. I would love to know his stranded runner percentage was. Perhaps it was not as good as I think it might be. In 21 of his appearances he pitched a part inning along with a full inning or two. That suggests he came in with runners on base. to get out of the inning.
Jeff, another fantastic article from you. With your insights plus DC’s contributions I can’t believe any other team blog or writers do a better job. Outstanding.
I think many have forgotten about Caleb Ferguson returning in 2022. I’m looking forward to seeing how he does after his surgery. There are no guarantees, but expect a continued successful career from him. With him returning and May hopefully back after midseason could really help the team in the back half of the season.
The hitting coach thoughts are interesting for sure. RVS’s approach seems to be good for the regular season. During the regular season teams face an abundance of weak pitching and the slug approach is easier to be successful. In the postseason the small ball approach seems to be more effective. Playoff teams usually have strong pitching staffs and the slug approach isn’t as effective. As we saw, the teams that hit the other way, bunted, low KO rate, and stole bases ended up in the World Series. Cody took this approach and look how successful he was in getting on base, driving in runs and keeping rallies going.
It would be nice to trade Bauer, but does he have a no trade clause in his contract? If tradeable, a small market team might be the best place for him. But, how many small market teams have bloated, regrettable contracts to unload? Bauer’s situation will be the most serious problem for the Dodgers to deal with because of the huge financial consequences.
Carry on.
Great write up AC! I see the state of the farm similarly in that no one is obviously ready to contribute with the bat and glove next season. I can see a slight chance that Vargas can help, but shouldn’t be counted on. He’s still pretty young, his glove is always at least a little suspect, but the bat has been really consistent throughout the minors. That’s where the chance comes in.
An even more outside chance would be Outman since he’s one of the best hitters in the AFL. It could be a hot streak, or something might have clicked. I was surprised that he had as much time as he did last year in the Spring and did relatively well considering he never played above high A to that point.
I don’t like the All or Nothing approach to offense that the Dodgers employ. But, it’s hard to argue the regular season results. I miss the days of hit and runs, stolen bases and choking up / shortening up with two strikes. There’s a lot of opportunity to get more action with the offense by beating shifts, but the Dodgers just don’t seem interested in taking that approach. It seems they are a three true outcomes offense. Lot’s of HR, K’s and Walks. Max Muncy and Joc Pederson are poster boys for this type of offense.
As far as the pitching goes, AF says that there’s a bumper crop of pitchers coming and that he needs to be careful not to block them. Hence the Heaney signing. I can see him grabbing another project, trade for a front of rotation type with an expiring deal with one or two years remaining, or either going after a Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander on a short deal.
No doubt he will get some more depth to a rotation that only has two reliable arms to start the season.
Well, I use to see Dodger prospects in High A when the Lancaster Jethawks were around, but no more. I always ventured to the stadium when Rancho came to town. Then baseball got even more greedy, downsized the minor leagues, denying people across the country a chance to enjoy baseball in person. People in this area really miss the Jethawks, lots of kids and families attending the games during the summer.
It’s one thing to drive 10 minutes to see a minor league game, another to drive 75 minutes through LA traffic. I do that to go to Dodger Stadium. I see video highlights of the Dodgers prospects. Not as fun as watching a game in person.
If for some reason MLB and the players can’t reach an agreement and a strike takes place, games get cancelled, that will be it for me. I’m guessing that will set the game back years. They really can’t be that stupid, can they?
As to having patience, it is what it is, some teams will strike fast, others will take a stroll, wait for things to play out. Friedman moved fast on Heaney. Maybe Boras chooses to move fast on Corey Seager. Will the Dodgers pull the trigger? Fifty-fifty?
I can’t imagine Friedman making a big trade for a position player. Seems to be focused on the starting rotation. They have players in place with or without Seager. But a trade for a starter or two with upside would be costly in terms of prospects at a time when the team seems focused on boosting the talent level in the minors.
Good write-up today, Jeff.
Great stuff again as usual Jeff. Tigers struck first in free agency inking Eduardo Rodriguez to a 5 yr, 77 million dollar deal. Former Dodger, Julio Lugo passed away at age 45 from a reported heart attack.
Excellent write-up Jeff. Good to know I’m not the only old fossil on this site who still uses the Oxford comma. Time to bring Tim Hyers back into the fold to see what he can do.
Sorry Rudy, Hyers is the new Rangers hitting coach.
Did not know that. I need to leave my cave more often.
You don’t get internet in your cave? Easy to miss. Not exactly news that most major league fans would pay attention to. Just shows you how boring my life is that I caught it.
Robert Van Scoyoc has been the hitting coach for the Dodgers for three years. While I have been critical of some of their results, let’s look at where the team ranks for that three year period:
#1 in Runs Scored
#1 in RBI
#1 in WAR
#3 in Strikeouts (lowest)
#2 in OB%
#5 in BA
#1 in Slugging
#1 in Walks
#1 in ISO
#14 (next to last) in BABIP – I hate to say it, but that suggests that they have been somewhat unlucky.
I do not think a case can be, or should be made to get rid of RVS. I do think a case could be made for better game planning. If you want to point a finger, I would be more open to pointing to Danny Lehmann rather than RVS.
Totally agree.
Today’s game is a three true outcome batting setup. If that’s what RVS is implementing he’s doing so with the blessings and guidance of the overall organization.
I don’t get the Adam Kennedy reference at all.
The hitting coaches who received the most praise last season were the Giants.
None of those guys: Lind, Ecker, or Viele had any MLB experience. I think maybe some minor league experience. But nothing of consequence. And the Giants’ major leaguers LOVED them.
It’s about mechanics and approach more than it is experience.
You are the exact person Adam Kennedy is speaking about. You have no idea what it is like to climb into a batters box and face a MLB pitcher. You do not get that experience from a book. RVS was a poor HS hitter and had all of 7 Junior College ABs. He has theory with no practical experience. Maybe we should turn MLB into another video game and let the gamers perform. I will have to go back and see about the SFG coaches experience. How do you know the major leaguers loved them.? Which player did you speak with to be so conclusive.
Yikes!
For the record, I’ve never said I’ve had the experience of being a major leaguer. Quite the opposite in fact. That said, my point isn’t that I know what it takes to be a major leaguer, rather I can observe what it may take to be a hitting coach. Interestingly, a lot of these coaches had poor minor league batting stats I think.
I can’t remember all of them exactly, but the Rosenthal one below was first and foremost in my mind. These two are both, sadly, on TheAthletic. ($$$)
https://theathletic.com/2940197/2021/11/07/a-conversation-with-brandon-crawford-giants-shortstop-and-gold-glove-winner-i-never-lacked-confidence/
Whenever we talk about the Giants’ hitting coaches from this past season, it’s always all three of them: Donnie Ecker, Justin Viele and Dustin Lind. You almost never hear one of them mentioned without the others. Out of them, who gave you the most ideas or was the biggest architect in your swing changes?
They did such a good job over the last couple years of coming together with ideas and solutions for different guys and what they needed at the time. There wasn’t ever a time when we were working in the cage and one of them would say, ‘Hey, I think this.’ It was always, ‘We think that this drill will work.’ Or, ‘We were talking and maybe try this.’ So it’s hard to say exactly who had the most influence on the changes I made because they all worked together so well. I really don’t know who the mastermind was.
The Rosenthal piece is basically all about the non-conventional coach and their rise.
https://theathletic.com/2798606/2021/08/31/rosenthal-san-franciscos-secret-giants-say-young-unconventional-coaches-fuel-their-surprising-success/
Ecker, the co-hitting coach, uses the term “value creation” to describe how coaches build trust. It starts with putting players first, then collaborating with them to build game plans on whatever they need to improve, whether it’s in their training regimens, their movements, their swings. Ecker says while it is important to “honor the history” of what the Giants’ veterans experienced, it is just as important to deal in their current truths. Hitters are attacked differently today than they were three, five, seven years ago. As players age, their bodies react differently, too. Coaches need to help them find solutions.
While Posey ultimately opted out of the 2020 season because of health concerns for his newly adopted baby girls during the coronavirus pandemic, he texted and talked on the phone with Albernaz regularly, strengthening their connection. Posey was impressed not just with Albernaz but with all of the coaches. “These guys, from the get-go, have been as prepared as anybody I’ve ever seen,” he says.
Crawford, too, was encouraged.
“I guess to a certain extent with a big group of very young, inexperienced — at least at the big-league level — coaches, there is going to be some level of skepticism,” he says. “But just in talking to them, listening to what they had to offer, that skepticism went away pretty quickly.”
Thanks for the great post Jeff. So much stuff to digest.
Totally agree that none of our better pitching prospects are ready to help this year. Along with the two Reds and two A’s pitchers you mentioned as possible acquisitions, you can also add Chris Bassitt of the A’s and Tyler Mahle of the Reds (although Mahle is still relatively inexpensive so they probably aren’t anxious to deal him).
I wonder how likely it is that we replace Scherzer by signing Verlander. Probably a difference of about 60 mil in salary commitment there and Verlander has his TJ behind him.
Bench pieces – still campaigning for Solano, Harrison and/or Eduardo Escobar.
I think Josh Harrison is a possibility.
I would do Verlander in a heartbeat… if not for the QO. I do not think AF will give away a draft pick and other posible bonus money.
Those are the three I opened my list with. Big on Harrison and he is exactly a bench bat and reserve. Escobar probably does not want to be considered for a reserve role just yet. I really like Solano and he could be a far less expensive utility than CT3. Unless a bottom feeder team sees him as a bridge before prospects are ready. Freeze’s just do not come along very often. Josh Harrison would be perfect.
The numbers MT reported above are due to talent and not approach. If it was approach, the hitters would have made adjustments, especially in the high leverage clutch situations. RVS may be able to teach his system to a JDM, who is a pure high launch angle power hitter. But he has no business being a TEAM hitting coach. I will never be convinced he is the right hitting coach for LAD.
Really interesting!
Which stats do you feel are best representative of approach if low K and high WAR and On-base are not?
Very good stuff Jeff. A ton of research and great information offered up. Thanks for great report on the prospects.
I have a couple of comments:
* I’m with you on RVS. I’d like to see less lift and separate and more bat to ball. And I think that is slowly coming back to the game. I have no ammo but I think there was more beating the shift approaches in the playoffs. That’s what I hope to see and not rule changes.
* Patience is a virtue with the lower level youngsters. I’m not so patient with the older AAAA guys. I know that not everyone progresses at the same rate but time is running out for some of that group. It is a production business and we need to be seeing some from the Reks, Raley, Neuse group. Our post season bench was a sad example of how unsuccessful (and injured) that group produced. They were no help at all.
* I really liked Amaya’s actions and arm at SS in Fall Ball. The Hit Tool will be the question. But I would exhaust the SS try before I consider a utility role for him, that some have speculated down the road.
* I like Hoase and hope he can get it going. Stud body at 3rd and played okay.
* Outman was our best guy at Fall Ball and I think he will be in the mix in the spring for a 4th or 5th outfield spot.
* We had 3 pitchers in the All Star game. Bobby Miller had poor stats but I love his raw stuff. With increased command, he will be a Dude as a starter in a couple of years.
* I didn’t see young Carson Taylor catch enough and when I did, he played poorly. His stats looked okay hitting, but when I saw him, he couldn’t throw out the trash. Some work there.
* Knack may actually throw too many strikes. Great control but I didn’t see a lot of stuff.
So those kids are some years away. I think Miller could move quickly if he gains command and Outman is close. But where’s the rest of the help next year from the AAA group? No potential ROY’s that we once produced on a routine basis.
* What is critical to me is Starting Pitching for next spring. We were loaded last year at ST with starting pitching and ended the year with 2.5 starters. I need to see a lot more than hope going into a season with question marks like Scherzer, Kershaw, Gonsulin, Bauer, May coming back at mid-year and Price. WTF is the plan for his boat anchor ass, even with Boston still paying part of his useless salary. I need to see some better starting pitchers lined up over the winter either through trades or accelerating some of the young arms.
* I would like to see enough arms to consider a 6 man rotation until the All-star break with some young guys used carefully also so we have something left for the playoffs. I guess the new way to do this is to not build up pitch counts but to pitch 6 starters 80 pitches once a week for 6 months to have something left. That appears to be the trend.
Rule changes are coming Phil. Bank on it. And limiting the shift is probably one of them. I get so frustrated watching some of these guys swings, and it all goes back to RVS. Personally, I think Turner Ward was a better hitting coach. Hell, he performed a miracle getting Puig to buy in to his coaching. Very few players make the jump from AA to the majors without some AAA time, especially in this day and age. Steve Howe was one of the few. I think Outman is sent to AAA for the season. If he is tearing it up, he might get the call in September….if there is a September. Life strikes again. We lost two of our residents to Covid over the last week. One died in the hospital, and the other in her apartment. Then yesterday, our maintenance man Chris, lost his wife to the virus. She was just 44. Be safe out there guys. And gals if any read this stuff.
Horrible to hear we are still losing people.
Did they get the vax? Would be serious outliers if they did not.
Yes, all of them had the shots. At least the two residents that passed. Not sure about Chris’s wife. I am getting my booster this week.
I cannot wait to see Machado back in the IF instead of shallow right. With his arm he is definitely a singles killer for lefties.
Spirited repartee today. Jeff brought up a very interesting and great subject. Our vaunted farm system. We knew this season that the AAA roster featured little help. Some thought Neuse would bring more to the table than he did. I was skeptical about that from the beginning. I think had he not gotten injured, they would have gotten a lot of good out of McKinstry. He was really doing well until then. I also believe he was not really 100% when he came back. His timing was never right. The others, Reks, Raley, Souza, Burns, were never able to replicate the numbers they put up at AAA at the major league level. The bench was hurt more than any other part of the team with the loss of Rios and Joc and Kike leaving in free agency. It was the weak link all season. Situational hitting was a land mine. I saw so many balls pulled into the shift by players trying to hit it through the defense. If they do modify the shift in the rules, and I believe that will happen, I am all for not allowing infielders to play like a short fielder in softball. There is a lot of chatter that only 2 fielders will be allowed on each side of 2nd base. So no radical shifts. The one player who defeated the shift more than any other I saw was Pujols. His presence in the club house and on the bench will be missed. You gotta love Twitter. I love watching people go bat shit nuts over rumors. There is one floating out there that the Dodgers are going after Correa and folks are losing their minds. A couple of polls there about who ends up where.
Just reported per MLBTR, Chris Taylor rejected his QO. Knew that would happen. Bye Chris…nice knowing you. Have fun playing on a losing team.
Come on Bear, we should celebrate players making their maximum potential salary.
I don’t care one way or another if he signs or not. Yeah, go get the money, I actually get it. But do I care, nope. 18.4 mil is a lot of cash in my book. He won’t get a yearly offer even close to that, but it is the overall contract that matters. I am not sure LA gets any of their free agents back, and ever since Garvey left via free agency, I have not cared if they resign or not. It is their choice to do what is best for them. On the people we need to satisfy list, fans run dead last.
Do you consider any non-Dodger team a losing team Bear?
What if CT3 signs with the Giants, Phillies, Yankees, Cardinals, White Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners or Mets? I have seen all of those teams mentioned as potential landing places for him.
Really not sure why you’re so adamant that he won’t be back here. Once Kershaw retires, Scherzer signs with the Giants, Bauer is suspended, Kenley signs with the Padres and Seager signs with the Yanks, do you realize how much money that will leave AF to spend on Taylor?
When was the last time any of those teams won a Championship? Phils not since around 2008 or 9. Yankees not since 02 or something like that, Cardinals not since Pujols left. Jays not since Carter left, Mets? They are a joke and about the most dysfunctional team in the league. Mariners have never won, White Sox are close, but won’t win with LaRussa running the team. I think it is pretty much a given that he gets at least a four year deal for upwards of say 45 million. I would think much closer to 50 or more. No way LA is going to bring him back at that price. Just my opinion, which quite obviously does not mean spit. I just think fans value him a lot higher than the team will.
Good thing we didn’t have this conversation before last year or you would have had to include the Dodgers.
I am not really sure what my definition of losers is, but yeah, pretty much any team that does not have Dodgers across the chest……..just kidding……Tigers, Royals, Pirates, Mets, Mariners, Angels, Marlins, D-Backs and Rockies would be close to the top although it looks like Detroit is trying to change their image. Add the Twins to that list.
I lived in Scottsdale AZ for 12 years and often attended AFL games mostly during the Loney, Kemp era there. For some reason Kemp never got on my radar until much later than Loney, I liked Loney and Tony Abreu a lot and thought they would do well for the Dodgers. I really missed with Abreau.
I never liked what I saw with Joe Thurston or Andy LaRoche.
I had a good feeling about Mike Piazza while he was still in A ball. Just one of those things.
I thought DeWitt would not be a good player but would wind up starting ahead of his competition in the one year he started at 3B for the Dodgers. I wanted the Dodgers to start John Hale and leave him in the lineup for a few months but that didn’t happen and he went away.
The Rays do a great job of weaving prospects into their lineups. The Dodgers did that when they had their string of consecutive rookie of year winners. While I don’t want to gut the minor leagues I would like to exchange 30+ players for 26+ players.
It has been said that Friedman likes to get stars before they are stars and not after. Chapman falls into that category. He had a great 2019 season and a poor 2021 season. Which player is he? I am willing to take the injury risk on Buxton because of how good he is when healthy but that is harder to do if other key players have a history of missing games such as Seager.
It was crazy when the Dodgers had their 3, 4, and 5 hitters being injury risks–Nomar, Werth, and Drew. Don’t want to repeat that.
I remember Abreu. He came up in 07. Then in 09 they sent him to the D-Backs to complete the trade for Jon Garland. He also spent some time with the Royals and Giants. Was out of the league by 2015. I whiffed on a few back in the day too. Billy Ashley was one. I saw him hit some BP shots into the seats at Dodger Stadium and thought he would be a huge power addition. I remember Hale too. Wore # 43. I also thought Paciorek was going to be something special. First time I saw Piazza hit, I knew that he was going to be good. He hit a liner off of the CF wall for a double. Sounded like a cannon going off when he hit it. I get you wanting Buxton simply for the talent he brings when healthy. But LA is not going to take that risk since there is not really a need at that position.
As long as Bellinger is a Dodger, they will be able to to cover CF when Buxton is missing games. Just need a 1st base fill in when Belli is filling in at CF.
That could be shared by Busch, Justin, or someone like Freeze.
Not many someones like Freeze guys out there. But, just out of curiosity, who do the Twins want in return for the illustrious yet brittle Mr. Buxton? Anyone I might know? How many games do you expect him to miss? I also would like to know what you find so alluring about the guy. He is a career .248 hitter with marginal power. A speedster who does not steal many bases. Yes, he is a plus defender, but his career OPS is lower than Bellinger’s by almost 100 points. He also in his only full season struck out 150 times. He does not seem like an upgrade over Bellinger at all. He does have a gold glove, but so does Bellinger. He is a year older and lot more injury prone. As exciting a player as he might be, he does not fill a need. Muncy is the first baseman, so that is covered, Rios, Beatty and JT have all played some first base. So has McKinney although I do not expect him on the roster come April.
Bear, you and AC make me think that it won’t take much to get Buxton. Same with Chapman.
Several responses:
1 – there is an interesting article in The Athletic about the horrible season that the D-backs just suffered through. They had Allard Baird, who had been in the Royals’ front office, do a complete audit of their system, from the majors to the minors. The article speaks of “cognitive bias” – teams (and their fans) overvaluing their prospects because they are invested, both economically and emotionally in them. Here’s a short blurb:
“Though the Diamondbacks’ 2021 record might suggest they were uniquely blind to their true talent level, self-scouting is something with which every organization in baseball struggles. “It’s really tough, man,” said David Stearns, the Brewers’ president of baseball operations. “It’s really tough not to overvalue your own players.” It is a natural human instinct to grow emotionally attached to a player you drafted or developed or acquired in a trade. GMs know their own players better than anyone, and while that gives them an information edge when assessing skill level, that familiarity also hampers objectivity.
“On a scouting scale, if we grade players out 20 to 80, we are naturally going to be a full grade higher on our players because we know them more and we’re emotionally attached,” said Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto.”
I guarantee you that the prospects that many here are so attached to are not nearly as good as we think that they are. I admit that I don’t follow the minors really at all but do note that many of the prospects are not well thought of by talent evaluators that I read.
MLB.com ranked the Dodgers’ farm system 16th in August 2021. Fangraphs ranks them 13th. Keith Law and The Athletic ranked them 10th but that was in February before Gray and Ruiz were traded.
I’m sure that the front office is not as enamored of several of the prospects. They have to be clear-eyed and unbiased or the team suffers.
2 – There are some guys who are late bloomers and some that are just AAAA players. I didn’t see anything of Reks, Raley, Neuse, et al that lead me to believe that they are anything other than AAAA players. Of course you never know. But the Dodgers will have roster spots to fill. As of right now, they have the following on the 40 man roster:
C – Smith, Barnes
INF – Lux, McKinstry, Muncy, Neuse, Rios, J Turner, T Turner
OF – Beaty, Bellinger, Betts, McKinney, Pollock, Raley, Reks
Of these, I will be disappointed if Neuse, McKinney, Raley or Reks start the season on the 26 man roster. Assuming nothing changes, they start Smith, Muncy, Lux, T Turner, J Turner, Pollock, Bellinger and Betts, leaving a bench of Rios (if he’s healthy) Barnes, Beaty and McKinstry. This leaves holes and isn’t really too impressive a group.
I am certain that the Dodgers will add pieces.
3 – I agree that at this point, the rotation has to be the emphasis. Buehler and Urias are fine for 2 spots. I assume that Kershaw will be back in 2022. I make no such assumption about Bauer. I have no faith in Price or Gonsolin at this point. From what I read, none of the Dodgers’ pitching prospects are ready for the show yet. Heaney will have to be considered a lock for the rotation (terrifying in my opinion). The A’s and Reds seem to be ready to trade pitchers for prospects. Do the Dodgers have the prospect capital to secure a good starter and if so, how much will that set the system back?
Fantastic article Jeff, with this comprehensive description of the LA Dodgers development system I don’t have to look elsewhere for more information. On the other hand, I ask you, do the players not have the preparation to have with them that versatility that could be used according to the development of the game? as someone else mentioned earlier about game planning.
Patience is an increasingly rare virtue in these times, we as fans must think about the player’s personal situations before prejudging him, and trust the central office where they undoubtedly analyzed him to enter him into the development system. Congratulations again Jeff for this great article
Jose, they actually have a coach, Lehman, who is designated with the task of game planning. In game adjustments are usually on the player and the hitting coaches. As for situational hitting, they practice that in spring training. But nothing I have seen on this team shows that they practice beating the shift.
Situational hitting is not as easy as saying Player A should have hit it the other way. But it is also not as difficult as many players seem to make it out to be. Situational hitting is primarily pitch recognition and bat control and should only be used when the game calls for it. Getting the run late in the game with a single or moving the runner up by hitting behind the runner on 2nd. It is amazing as we grow older and technology tends to take over, we sometimes forget little games kids (and older) played to help with situational hitting. Pepper is perfect for learning bat control. Pitch recognition comes with experience. Maybe we should ask RVS how many rotations he sees when he is up hitting. My son played pepper almost throughout his MiLB career. During BP at Fenway, his game was how many times could he hit it over the Green Monster. No situational hitting there.
Awesome. When I was playing softball, I used to try and see where the holes were. I would wait on pitches and slap the ball to left a lot because they would usually play me to pull. Being a lefty it just was very easy for me to do. Slo pitch was different. But I still would use the entire field when I could.
Spot on Jeff. Tell me when the last “No Pepper” sign disappeared on a major league back stop? I had a hell of a time getting young adults to appreciate and learn to play pepper correctly for both the hitter and fielders. They just wanted to play “flip” which was a waste of time. I compromised. They played pepper correctly and than could play flip. Lost art. Pepper taught bat control.
Really interesting read Jeff. Thanks for all the effort and hope you’re doing well.
Mark – I read your review of “No Time To Die” with interest, believing that you were employing hyperbole, as you often do, but having watched it last night, I can confirm that the best time to die would definitely have been as the film started.
What an absolute crock of Sh#t. Gotta be one of the worst ever.
I know there may not be a need unless we get the Universal DH, but I would love to see Kris Bryant in Dodger Blue.
PS – I don’t buy the Mookie is fine and the hip is good propaganda. Thst hip will be operated on at some point.
Hey Watford, how is life in Jolly Old England going now? I have been watching some pretty light fare on the TV lately. Last night I watched both of Dwayne Johnson’s, ( The Rock ), latest movies. Red Notice, on Netflix and Jungle Cruise on Disney plus. With all the crap going on in the world, I needed some laughs badly. Also found some old Benny Hill clips on Youtube.
Can’t go wrong with “Fawlty Towers”.
I loved that show. John Cleese is a genius. I also loved him as the new Q in a couple of James Bond movies with Pierce Brosnan. He was also very good in A Fish Called Wanda.
Red Notice was fairly entertaining. Watched it last night. Pretty light weight, but a number of laughs ( paul rudd was pretty funny ) and nothing to challenge your mind. Just fun, non-important stuff. Much needed these days.
cheers
pb+
PB, Rudd is not in Red Notice. That is Ryan Reynolds. He was in Deadpool and Green Lantern. Rudd is Antman.
Probably off base here, but I have wondered for some time about Mookie and his hip. He bowls A LOT in the offseason. I know that after I bowl, having just a slightly wonky right hip due to being old & skiing my ass of every season, that my right hip is pretty sore the next day. The natural action of bowling right handed typically involves swinging that right hip out of the way.
But I have never heard anyone mention how much he bowls in regards to the kind of shape his hip is in. Right after writing all the previous stuff, I did quick research and indeed hip problems are common among bowlers who bowl too much. Just an interesting aside, IMO.
cheers
pb+
Totally agree. Other than Bond dying, it was an insult to Fleming! Everything about that movie felt over-stuffed and sentimental.
Hated Red Notice too. Horribly written and directed, but the stars at least have charisma.
Quite liked Dune.
Boy different strokes. I thought Dune was BORING. The new James Bond was not all that great, but with Craig leaving the franchise, probably fitting. I liked Red Notice. It was good for some laughs, and who cannot love Gal Gadot. Rudd is not in Red Notice, that is Ryan Reynolds…..same guy who is in Deadpool and The Green Lantern. Rudd plays Antman in the Marvel series.
Dune being boring I can totally see.
I’m a big fan of the book, so that helped me put up with it.
I hated the original. I am not a huge sci-fi book fan, but I do enjoy the movies. I get a real kick out of the Guardians of the Galaxy films. The only movie I have ever walked out on was Lord of the Rings. The first 30 minutes was painful to watch.
Bluto, curious what you meant regarding the folks that Bear mentioned that had died from Covid as being outliers if they hadn’t had the vaccine?
What would you call them if they had ?
And good for CT3, he has earned the opportunity to be given a QO and has the right to decline it and seek compensation that he is worth. I hope he is wearing Dodger Blue next year, if not I wish him the very best.
He has been in my opinion one of the most dependable and loyal Dodgers since coming to LA. Just my opinion
Hi Bobo,
Yeah, what I wrote is not what I was thinking! Not the first time, nor the last.
I meant they would be outliers (which they were at least 2/3 of them) if they had the vax and still succumbed to the virus.
that IS NOT an outlier, it is becoming quite common.
Really?
I did not know that, can you share the info/data?
If I understand you, you mean dying after having the vaccine would be very rare ?
It may be but I hear of lots of people getting Covid after having the vaccine. I’m curious if that number
( percentage wise ) is more or less than the number getting it after having Covid and not having the vaccine.
Just curious, don’t have the numbers.
I’ve heard of many people getting COVID after having the vaccine. Thus the booster and the waning effectiveness.
I haven’t heard that those cases are severe, in fact most data I’ve seen has shown those getting COVID after vaccination suffer from very mild forms thereof.
Again, sorry for mangling my thoughts.
Yet, according to Bear, at least 2 out of 3 of those he mentioned died with the vaccine.
But the undisputed fact is: ( and I am positive about this ) 10 out of 10 people eventually die.
Ain’t that the truth
Tell me if any of this is not true:
1. You can get COVID-19 if you have not been vaccinated;
2. You can get COVID-19 if you are vaccinated;
3. You can spread COVID-19 if you have not been vaccinated;
4. You can spread COVD-19 if you have been vaccinated;
5. Vaccinated or not vaccinated, you can get COVID-19;
6. Vaccinated or not vaccinated, you can spread COVID-19; and
7. Being vaccinated ONLY helps YOU (not others) unless you are counting hospitalization and beds taken up.
Since this is a free country, why mandate people should be vaccinated? Let them die if they want (although the monoclonal antibodies and other medications take that chance down to a microscopic level).
I took the vaccine, but if I had it to do over, I would not due to additional information I have learned about “natural immunity.”
Please correct me if I said anything wrong.
If you can’t – tell me how this is not 100% political… nothing to do with health!
#7 is obviously false.
And, as with most things in human life, making choices binary, and this is a lesson you should have learned long ago Mark, takes the complexity and nuance of of it.
But the rest is good.
As to why vaccines are mandatory, see my first line above.
Awesome article Jeff!
Such great information on the MILB prospects past and present!
I really appreciate your contributions to this site.
I am no scientist, (although I have a college degree in a science major) and I don’t have scientific evidence. Operating on common sense and experience. The immunity from already having Covid is more effective than the immunity you get from the vaccine. An immune system that has been infected by, and recovered from Covid can probably not be benefited by the vaccine but likely harmed.
I had covid, recovered rather quickly, have been around literally hundreds of people since. I might get Covid again but not planning on interfering with a healthy, strong immune system by getting injected by a vaccine of who knows what. Some of this is fact, some is opinion. Some is likely both.
Yeah, that never made sense to me Bobo. I understand the argument that it’s hard to formalize the proof if you have had the virus.
But, if we can, as a society: harness the power of the sun, explore the cosmos without leaving the planet, create the Internet and manipulate mRNA effectively surely we can find a way to prove prior infections.
The two older people who were residents here both had been vaccinated. I am not sure about Matty. But knowing Chris like I do, I doubt she was. Both of the residents were in their 70’s and Gary had some health problems prior to getting ill. Ginger had been troubled with colds for a couple of months. The building is still basically locked down. Only caregivers and family can enter. And no one is allowed without a mask. That being said, I have not gotten the booster shot yet. It is being offered in the area.
Ah. That makes a little more sense as they were/are more at risk given their age and health conditions.
That said, we should be better as a country and they shouldn’t have been put in such a position.
Everyone in this building is a high risk person. Most are well over 60 and almost all have some kind of health issues. My only real condition is my diabetes. I control it with diet and my meds. I do not need to take insulin. I am also over weight, but working on that.
Good bye Corey, much success on your next adventure, thanks for the memories and for being a great dodger. Patience, let’s have patience to wait for Juan to be an FA:
https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-mlb-pundit-believes-juan-soto-could-end-up-in-la-when-he-enters-free-agency/2021/11/15/
Bluto,
Replying off your last comment, I believe you are right. We should be doing better as a country, but most of the medical establishment in cahoots with the government has not allowed or restricted medicines and treatments that have been beneficial in treating the virus.
I know this again from first hand experience.
I don’t know why this policy has been taken, I have my suspicions and think it is shameful.
While half the country seems to mock and try to shame people who chose not to take the vaccine, the medical and government complex forbids the use of known treatments.
What’s up with that ?
Profit and power ?
Or trying to not let the vulnerable get into said position ?
Not too sure I Jibe with that BoBo.
I’ll take the vaccine ten times out of of ten over a therapeutic.
But, as you are imply, there’s probably a little too much capitalism if not crony capitalism in the drug industry
Are you watching Dopesick?
Don’t know what Dopesick refers to, and not watching much of anything, except the road. Leaving for work.