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Averages Lie!

A statistician had one foot in a bucket of ice water and one foot in a bucket of boiling water. He said, My feet feel great, on average. He meant that the average temperature of the water in the two buckets was comfortable. This may be true, but the average temperature doesn t tell the entire story. If you put one foot in ice water and the other in boiling water, on

By Mark Timmons5 min readJump to 106 comments

A statistician had one foot in a bucket of ice water and one foot in a bucket of boiling water. He said, “My feet feel great, on average.” He meant that the average temperature of the water in the two buckets was comfortable. This may be true, but the average temperature doesn’t tell the entire story. If you put one foot in ice water and the other in boiling water, on average you should be comfortable, but I guarantee that you aren’t.

So, far in this series against the D-Bags, the Dodgers are averaging 12 runs a game which means they should have won both games easily, but they only won one. In game one, they needed to score seven runs to win, but they only scored two. I game two, they needed just two runs to win but they score an additional twenty more! How crazy is that?

Sometimes with this team, it seems that either no one hits or everyone hits. On average, that looks pretty good, but looks are deceiving. It is somewhat troubling to me that a team with this type of offensive capability does not bring their bats to the ballpark on a regular basis. Like everything else, it’s probably Doc’s fault! I think Corey Seager will be back in a week or so and then I will have to listen to fans complain about how he can’t hit, because it probably will take a few weeks to get his swing back, just like it is taking Cody time to get his back.

FYI, Cody only got the one hit last night (a HR), but he did not strike out. He is getting close. Most of you wanted to get rid of AJ Pollock a week ago. Now he is second to Max Muncy is Slugging and third on the team in HR. You have to learn to look at the Big Picture, not just one game. The Dodgers are the first team in MLB history to have a pair of two-slam games in the same season. AJ Pollock and Matt Beaty each hit grand slams in a 16-4 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee on May 2.

The Dodgers were averaging 3.8 runs over their previous five games, during which they went 1-4. They nearly tripled that average in two innings on Saturday. As much moaning and groaning as I have been hearing about the Dodgers this year, only one team (the Giants) have more win than the Boys in Blue. They have 56 wins and the Dodgers have 55. This is one damn good team and they haven’t even tapped their potential as yet.

Starting Pitching

The news about Clayton Kershaw was great and he will have a nice rest during the All-Star Break and probably come back the week of the 19th. The Dodgers will likely do the same thing with Julio Urias at some point. David Price pitched three innings and could have probably pitched another one, but that is how you “build a player up” without injuring them… slowly! Remember, he has not started since 2019! Give it time.

I think JoJo Gray will be in LA sooner than later, barring any setbacks, he will likely make another start in OKC and then make his next one in LA. Last night he went four scoreless innings, allowing just 1 hit and no walks while striking out four. Get back, JoJo! Quacks had another save last night at OKC (just saying). By the last week of July, this should be the rotation:

  1. Striker Buehler
  2. Clayton Kershaw
  3. Julio Urias
  4. Tony Ginsolin
  5. David Price or JoJo Gray

Let’s not forget Ryan Pepiot, who went 4 innings last night with 6 K’s and 3 BB. He allowed just one hit and one run (1.77 ERA). I wonder if he moves to OKC soon? Speaking of Starters, Bobby Miller went four innings for Great Lakes last night, allowing five hits and two runs. Not spectacular, but solid.

Kaybear

I still think he would be a huge asset to this team with his bat-to-ball skills. He would compliment a lot of the “swing-and-miss” guys. I will still push for him, although it involves trading Austin Barnes who has not done anything wrong. Bring on the Kaybear!

Trevor Bauer

I have read a lot of drivel from morons at other blogs blasting the Dodgers for not suspending Trevor Bauer and instead, waiting for the Commish to act. Here’s the way it is: The Dodgers can’t suspend Bauer on their own volition because MLB holds that authority under the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy, which was enacted in 2015. The team can only act if Commissioner Rob Manfred transfers disciplinary authority to them. So, shut up with your righteous indignation and group-think “woke frenzy” and crawl back into your holes… and wait!

Also, to be clear, the Dodgers cannot void Bauer’s contract…. at least right now. So, shut up with “The Dodgers should have done this or that.” They did all they could do. The DA will likely get the case when the Pasadena Police have completed their investigation and if they charge him, then he will have to face a trial. If I had to predict, I would say that he will not be charged. However, that does not mean that MLB cannot suspend him. No one has a clue how this turns out, but I would wager that the odds are 50 : 50 he comes back this year.

The LA Times wrote this about the case:

The woman’s request for a restraining order against Bauer was filed by Marc Garelick of Meyer, Olson, Lowy & Meyers, a Los Angeles-based family law firm. Garelick manages the firm’s Orange County office.

According to Garelick’s bio, his specialty is “highly contentious and sophisticated litigation in family law courts.” He says he helps clients in particular with decisions on whether to pursue a settlement or litigate cases. Garelick didn’t respond to The Times when asked whether he would continue representing the woman should the case go to civil or criminal court.

Garelick is a “shakedown artist.” Pure and simple. I am not taking sides, but it seems this investigation is coming to an end very soon. I would not rule Bauer being back in the rotation by the start of August… or not! Again, we hurry up and wait!

Discussion (106)

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  1. BearJuly 12, 2021

    For those who miss Kike and Joc, they both are hitting in the .230’s, Joc at .230 and Kike at .237. Both have 11 HR’s. Kike already has 13 errors, most of them at second base, and he has 3 in the outfield. Lux by comparison has only 8 errors, 1 at second and 7 at SS, A J Pollock has no errors. Taylor and Bellinger have 2 between them. I do not think we miss either of these guys.

  2. BearJuly 12, 2021

    Feel good story ends as Souza Jr. released by the Dodgers.

  3. BearJuly 12, 2021

    Bellinger has not even played in 40 games yet. He barely has 100 at bats and he has been off of the IL for a little over 2 weeks. Cody is going home to Az to be with his family, and probably do some cage work at the facility. I have every confidence the kid will start making better contact in the rest of the games. Even if he plays them all he comes in at just over 100. He will still strike out a lot, he always has, but I see him getting on a roll soon, and no better place to start than Coors.

  4. Duke Not SniderJuly 12, 2021

    Count me among those who are not worried about Belli. He may never win another MVP, but I see no reason to doubt him returning to All Star-status. He’s proven he can deliver.

    Hey, remember how, two seasons back, the big buzz was about whether Belli or Yelich was the better young outfielder? Well, Yelich is now having a rough season too.

    So is Rendon, for that matter–and I had liked the idea of AF signing him and moving Turner to 1B. Slumps happen.

    The fact that Betts and Pollock now seem to be coming around makes me confident about Belli. Why not have faith in guys who (A) have proven they can deliver the goods and (B) aren’t hobbled by injury or age? Speaking of age, Turner continues to impress with the bat–thogh his defense is slipping. (Bring on the DH!)

    After Muncy’s breakout year, I remember thinking, yeah, maybe he’s at peak value and the Dodgers should consider trading him because Muncy really didn’t have a true position. A friend of mine was even arguing that after two seasons. But Muncy is the consummate grinder who keeps hitting as he has proven more than solid at both 1B and 2B. Today he again proved why he should be the All Star.

    Very happy to see that Pujols was again brought in to pinch hit for Lux. Take a seat, Gavin. Before the deal, did anyone predict that Pujols would help the Dodgers deal with Lux’s struggles against lefties?

    In other news, it looks like the Pads have lost Weathers to a knee injury and thus will also be in the market for an SP. This competition could increase the cost if AF enters the market, as he should. All considered, the Dodgers have plenty of reason for optimism at the All-Star break.

    As we moan about guys likes Uceta and Jake Reed and previously Santana, let’s not ignore what our old friend Jake McGee is doing the first-place Giants:

    “McGee came in for the ninth and was able to work around a two-out Starlin Castro double to record his 19th save and fourth straight appearance with a save. San Francisco’s closer concludes the first half on an impressive streak of 13.2 straight innings without permitting an earned run dating back to June 4. He enters the All-Star break with a 2.72 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 41:7 K:BB ratio.”

    Yeah, sure… Letting that proven lefty reliever walk after a fine season in pantone was just a great move!

    It was sort of fun to follow the MLB Draft, though it’s always a crapshoot.

    As touted first-rounders go, Lux really hasn’t been that bad–not up to Buhler and Will Smith, certainly, but a lot better than Kendall and that pitcher who got traded for Chris Taylor. But he’s not playing as well as McKinstry, drafted in the 33rd round.

  5. Mark TimmonsJuly 12, 2021

    The Angels drafted Hamilton Southeastern Pitcher Sam Bachman who is a stud with a 100+ MPH Fastball. HSE is in the Indy Metro Area and he is the next big thing.

  6. Jeff DominiqueJuly 12, 2021

    The Washington Nationals do not want to see the NL West again. At the end of June, they were making a move, 2 games back of NYM in the NL East with a 40-38 record. 4 games against LAD, 4 against SD Padres, and 3 against SFG. They went 2-9, and dropped to 42-47 in 4th place and 6.0 games behind NYM. They are 9.0 games back of SD for Wild Card. They are looking more like sellers.

  7. BadgerJuly 12, 2021

    Well, I got my prediction right. We could all guess and be wrong.

    I saw some video of this kid at True Blue and it looked to me like he couldn’t throw a strike. He was beating the hell out of his catcher with heat in the dirt. Obviously a lot of work to do with him. I think he will sign.

  8. Jeff DominiqueJuly 12, 2021

    DC is going to do a profile of Bruns. There are a couple of interesting tidbits with this pick. The last time the Dodgers did not sign their first round pick, it was 2018, with limited bonus dollars available.; J. T. Ginn, a High Schooler with command concerns who was 19 and committed to Mississippi St. Being 19, he was sophomore eligible for the draft which he re-entered and was drafted by the Mets in 2020. Bruns is 19 with command concerns, committed to Mississippi St., and will be sophomore eligible for the draft in 2023.

    In 2018, the Dodgers passed on a successful college pitcher who dropped in Shane McClanahan who was the next pick, and this year the Dodgers again passed on a successful college pitcher who dropped and was picked three picks later in Ty Madden. I said at the draft I would not have passed on McClanahan, and I would not have passed on Madden this year.

    In 2018, the Dodgers had the least amount of bonus allotment, and chose to low ball Ginn. This year the Dodgers have the 2nd lowest bonus allotment. Will they lowball Bruns and pick up a second #1 next year by not signing him?

  9. BlutoJuly 12, 2021

    Question: Any pre-draft association between Maddox BRuns and the Dodgers? How surprising is that pick? How surprising can any pick late in the 1st really be?

    Eric A Longenhagen Not surprising. Dodgers love fastballs with carry and Bruns has a big one.

  10. CassidyJuly 12, 2021

    If only Bellinger can hit as well as Pujols in the second half!

  11. BlutoJuly 12, 2021

    There’s likely not a pitcher in the 2021 class who has as much pure arm talent as Bruns. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound lefthander wowed scouts last summer at Perfect Game’s National Showcase, running his fastball up to 97 mph and flashing two breaking balls that were both plus pitches. At later events it was clear that Bruns’ control and command were well behind his pure stuff, and he struggled not only to hit his spots but to get the ball around the zone. That made him something of an enigma entering the spring, as no one in the industry doubted his pure stuff and upside, but seemingly everyone was scared about his strike-throwing ability and the reliever risk that came with it. Scouts in the South did see better control from Bruns this spring against poor competition, but they still commented he was much more of a control-over-command arm. Bruns is strong and physical, and attacks hitters with a vertical arm slot that creates plane and a crossfire delivery that adds to his deception. While he can run his fastball up to 97-98, he pitches more effectively in the lower 90s. Bruns throws a 12-to-6 curveball in the mid-70s with tremendous depth and also has a hard slider in the low 80s with power and late biting action. On top of that, some scouts have even graded his low-80s changeup as a plus offering, but he’s not used it much to this point. Bruns is committed to Alabama, but a team could easily take a shot on his massive upside somewhere in the top-two rounds.

  12. MushersPopJuly 12, 2021

    Guess the Dodgers can pick up Muncy from the A’s again.

  13. BearJuly 12, 2021

    A’s drafted Max Muncy!!!! RH hitting High school SS.

  14. Jeff DominiqueJuly 12, 2021

    Kim Ng had a great first pick in drafting HS SS Khalil Watson whose name was bandied about as a potential 1/1 and slid to 16. HUGE steal.

  15. BearJuly 12, 2021

    Plan is for Seager to play in Arizona during the break and be evaluated after the break. Roberts said a rehab assignment is at this point not being considered, and they hope to have him back in the lineup when they return from Colorado to face the Giants in a 4 game series at Dodger Stadium. The news on Kershaw’s elbow showed only inflammation and no structural damage. It is hoped he will be ready at the end of his 10 day stint on the IL>

  16. Jeff DominiqueJuly 12, 2021

    SF Giants just drafted a winner in Will Bednar. I will be following from the get go.

  17. nonicnamebumfanJuly 12, 2021

    Don’t understand. If they were scheduled to show the major-league game why would the futures game even be listed

  18. nonicnamebumfanJuly 12, 2021

    On a different subject,Anybody know why the futures game switched to the Sox /Baltimore game, On MLB network

  19. BacchusBJuly 12, 2021

    Never give up

  20. Andrew Vincent ForteJuly 12, 2021

    Remember signing Bauer will cost us a second pick in this year’s draft.

  21. BearJuly 11, 2021

    Henry taken first by the Pirates. Leiter 2nd to the Rangers. Rockies beat the Padres again. We go into the break still 2 behind the Gnats.

  22. RichieFJuly 11, 2021

    MMM(Mad Monster Muncy) does it again!!!!!!!

  23. BearJuly 11, 2021

    Maximus Muncius for governor! What a comeback and what a shot. Gotta love Max….anyone still want to trade Pollock??? Mookie looking Mookieish.

  24. nonicnamebumfanJuly 11, 2021

    Man we needed that, way to pull it out boys

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