2021 could shape up to be the most unusual season on record… and that is saying a mouthful since COVID-19-2020 was absolutely Bat S___t Crazy! Here’s why: It was a 60 game season – some players struggle for 50 games only to shine for the next 100. Other players shine for 50 games and struggle the next 100 games.
Some minor league prospects grow by two or three levels and some regress a level or stay the same. There was no minor league season last year. Yes, there was an alternate site, but no stats and very little outside reporting and observation. Kody Hoese was allegedly very, very good at the USC site, but fizzled in the AFL. Mike Busch was OK at USC but was on fire in the AFL, so he is the new “flavor of the week.” Mike Busch is the “anointed one.” That’s today! What happens tomorrow?
But, could it be that Kody was tired and Mike was just getting started. Who knows what was happening in their lives? Maybe Kody’s girlfriend dumped him and maybe his parents had COVID-19. Maybe Mike Busch had COVID-19 earlier and had just regained his strength. We don’t know what we don’t know. Most of the data and real-time evaluations we have on players is two-freaking-years-old! There could be a lot of surprises this Spring. Progressions and regressions!
The Pitchers
If it is physically possible to have too much starting pitching, the Dodgers have done just that! That’s why I say “everything is on the table.” If the Dodgers breeze through half the season with 6 or 7 healthy starters, someone could get traded. If Jimmy Nelson is healthy, someone could get traded (imagine if Nelson is “really” healthy). If Dustin May masters another pitch, someone could get traded.
It is possible that David Price, Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and/or Julio Urias could have Cy Young seasons. Three already have and two have the stuff to do the same. The embarrassment of starters will carry over to the bullpen, meaning that May, Gonsolin, Nelson, and/or even Urias could end up there as well.
Jeff Dominique did a great job yesterday of discussing Dodger Options, including the Bullpen Options. I agree with him wholeheartedly, and especially about Brandon Morrow, Indiana Boy Ryan Pepiot, and Victor Gonzalez. V-Gon could be the closer before the year is over, but Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen, Corey Knebel, and Brusdar Graterol might have a say in that.
The Dodgers have more options in the bullpen in 2021 than I have ever seen. Some will step up and some will step out. What is up with Michael Grove? Is he done… or just getting started? I can’t even guess. Uceta and Carrillo? Who knows? What about Kendall Williams?
The Dodgers are very good at identifying players who may have under-preformed, but the spot something they believe can make that player good or even great. Players like Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Joe Blanton, Brandon Morrow, and Joe Kelly. OK, well, maybe not Joe Kelly… unless this is his year – which I doubt! But it could be… he has the ability, but has never done anything anything consistent. I have given up on him, so maybe this is where he shines.
Let me say one thing: Mitch White has some of the nastiest stuff you will ever see. Starter or reliever? I think reliever. The decision needs to be made. Mitch has filthy stuff. If he can wrap his head around it, he could be a closer. It is all between the ears.
The Hitters
We know that Gavin Lux is highly rated and we know that Kody Hoese, Mike Busch, Keibert Ruiz, Jacob Amaya, Zach McKinstry, DJ Peters, and maybe a couple of others could be factors. We also know that Sheldon Neuse could be a real difference-maker with his RH bat.
We absolutely know that the Dodgers’ offensive lineup is the best in baseball… and that is even if they have an injury or three. We know (or at least we think we know) that Justin Turner MIGHT start 120 games. We hope Cody Bellinger returns to form… ditto for Max Muncy.
Will Ed Rios take another positive step forward? Are Matt Beaty, Zach Reks, and Luke Raley the same guy? Will DJ Peters athleticism or his swing and miss win out? Will Pages, Cartaya, or Vargas be ready sooner than we expect? This is what is great about Spring Training.
A lot of this upcoming season turns upon what Neuse, Hoese, Busch, Lux, Ruiz, Peters, McKinstry, Amaya, and others can do… or maybe are not ready to do. We can all have our own ideas, favorite prospects, and opinions, but we really do not know. Most likely, someone will step up that we do not expect! This is what makes Spring Training magical!
Dodger News
The Dodgers have hired Ron Roenicke as a special assistant to the general manager. Welcome back, again, Ron!
Below is the Luxury Tax Rate (courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors). I think you can see why the Dodgers will not stay where they are in 2022 or 2023. I am not even convinced they will stay there in 2021. That’s why I say “Everything is on the table.”
Everyone says we’re the best. [In Michael Jordan voice]: Great, let them think that.
Our rotation is insane. After losing Ryu & Maeda last year, we now add Bauer & Price. Oh, and Urias (who could be a #2 starter) is our #5.
Bullpen will need to be sorted out but we have some solid pieces to make up for KJ’s uncertainty. May & Gonsolin also loom large.
Lineup is superb. Here’s hoping Lux takes the 2b job and runs with it.
Bench lost a lot with Joc & Hernandez departing. Some combo of Rios/McKinstry/Neuse/Raley might have to step up.
Hard to believe we didn’t add a single MLB bat.
It makes me think a little. We took a chance on Bauer continuing to being 2020 Bauer, which is a gutsy move. If we’re paying Bauer 40+ AAV, though, why didn’t we just sign Ryu for 20 mil AAV? One could make an argument that he’s a consistently better pitcher than Bauer.
What you’re saying is true concerning the Bauer signing. With Ryu it may have been the injury factor. Ryu has been more consistent when he is not injured. Ryu was healthy last year (I think), but let’s see how he does this year and the future. Besides, availability, is as almost as important as pitching ability. I believe Bauer has that over Ryu. Interesting thought though.
I agree on it being a mistake not to re-sign Ryu last year. I always prefer to bring back your own players when possible, as they are a known quantity. And Ryu could have been extended in 2019 or early in free agency for much less than 4 years/$80 million. But in the end, the Dodgers still won the World Series, so kudos to management.
In fairness, I think Ryu is better over the course of a season than as a single game pitcher.
Bauer is clearly a postseason sniper.
Not a bad take. Maybe a dominating style pitcher versus a finesse pitcher such as Ryu plays up in the playoffs. I dunno.
I don’t know how you predict a pitcher being a playoff sniper, though. Ryu has shown he can be consistently good. He’s older, has an injury history, but he has pitched some big playoff games for the Dodgers in the past, so no reason to think he doesn’t have the makeup or the stuff to stand up to playoff pressure.
Bauer can pitch 200 innings, so there’s that.
I’m happy the Dodgers have Bauer, but I liked Ryu and didn’t think his big year in 19 was a fluke, and looking at his contract now, it’s a relative bargain.
Rios takes Joc’s spot and if Lux is the every day guy at second, then Chris Taylor takes the utility role.
Sure, but Rios already carved out his own spot prior to Joc’s departure. And we know how much Taylor starts as is.
Not saying we’re thin, but we’ll have be creative.
I’m sure the braintrust has a plan.
And I agree Rios’ role will increase.
Trevor Rosenthal signs a 1 year, $11mil deal with Oakland
Keith Law doesn’t give a glowing report on Hoese in his latest evaluation of Dodger prospects. Let’s hope Rios is the real deal or third base will be a question mark going forward.
Law is on a bit of an island with that one.
Vargas potentially can play there too although he is more likely a 1b.
Then there’s always the UC Irvine kid [Lewis] and De Jesus down the road.
With Turner in the fold, the two-year plan is still in place.
Seager will be the big story next offseason [truthfully, I think we have enough pitcher to survive Kershaw leaving].
Law has consistently been negative on Hoese. Rates him18th of Dodger prospects, and considers him older with limited pro experience. He also indicated he can’t hit better pitching and is unlikely to stay at 3rd base.
He also rates Amaya and Beeter lower than most at 19th and 16th, respectively.
On the plus side, he has Gray, Busch, Cartaya, and Ruiz as overall top 100 prospects, and speaks very highly of Andy Pages (#5), and Andre Jackson (#7).
For those of you who like to follow prospects, here’s a story on a lefty pitcher from Hawaii, Ryley Widell that we just signed after he was released by the Mariners.
Dodgers were originally interested in drafting him but the Mariners got to him first. Then he had a series of injuries and Covid got in the way and the Mariners released him. Spent the winter working at Driveline and had some nice results. Will probably start off in Tulsa.
https://www.mauinews.com/sports/local-sports/2021/02/widell-signs-with-dodgers-organization/
Tatis gets 14 year $340M contract extension that takes him through age 35. AAV $24M.
Lindor earned $41,390,428 counting his 2021 salary during his first 7 years. He got a $2,900,000 signing bonus. He has 8 more years salary after his age 35 year.
$340M less $42M = $298M
$298 divided by 8 years = $37.5.
Lindor will have to average $37.5M annually between 2022 and 2029 to have career earnings equal to what Tatis will earn.
I’m with Mark. I too have given up on Joe Kelly. It isn’t easy to do that with me. I mostly always hold hope in a player. I was a big fan and advocate of Kelly until he finally convinced me he’s a head case that does nothing to help the bullpen. It’s most irritating to see a guy with obvious talent, piss it away. He has tremendous life on that running fastball that might touch 100. So what do we see? I guy with that fastball throw 24 straight sliders in one outing. I’m with others here who fear he might kill somebody with that wild heater. He’s a waste of time and money and I wish he was gone.
I think too much stake is put on other people’s evaluation of players. Now it’s Keith Law’s opinion of Hoese and others. How the hell do these evaluators know. Were they at USC or in confidence with AF? Did they watch imaginary MiLB last summer? I guess it makes fun conversation in the off-season but it happens for players on the field and in the clubhouse and not in some evaluators mind and computer.
JT Realmuto broke his thumb. He will be out at least 2 weeks. Availability for the start of the season is in question. I really wish I knew more about the kids in the system. As for Kelly, by the end of spring, they will know if he is back in form or not. Then some decision will most likely be made.
Bear, not to be contrary with you but I don’t know what the Dodgers are going to see from Kelly in the next 4 weeks that they haven’t seen in the last 2 years. That’s why I have given up on him.
I totally get it. I am just saying, AF and the coaching staff will be evaluating all the pitchers progress. Kelly may or may not be the Kelly he once was. I am not saying he will be good, I am just saying that they will evaluate his performance and go from there. I do not give up on anyone until the team does. I might not like the way they pitch or have pitched. But I am not the one doing the evaluating.
I wonder who the Philly pitcher was that Realmuto couldn’t get the ball in the pocket of his glove?
Since day 1 he became a Dodger I said Joe Kelly sucks. I was against signing him. Career .713 OPS and career .698 against RHB and .731 against LHB. And if you’re into WHIP, career 1.39 WHIP. Not good stats.
I’m really into the OPS, WHIP and splits that much on Kelly. It’s my eyes that tell me he sucks.
They signed him knowing he can be sporadic in his effectiveness, but when he’s on, as he was against them in 18, he can be devastating.
There are two seasons in baseball – the regular season and the playoffs. The Dodgers got him to peak for the playoffs.
They Dodgers are already paying him. He still has filthy stuff. They can probably afford to keep him on the roster and have him potentially pitch through his issues during the regular season so he rounds into form for the playoffs.
Why are people whining about him? Maybe he turns out to be a bust, but the Dodgers have him now, there’s probably not a lot the team can do to unload him if they wanted to, he still has shut down stuff if they can get him to throw strikes with the FB. Just let things play out, and if he’s a bust by playoff time just leave him off the roster, let his contract finish at the end of the year and say, adios.
People want to ring their hands over every move by the Dodgers that doesn’t turn to gold. Shit happens.
Totally agree Patch
“But they signed Kazmir, McCarthy, Anderson, and Kelly. The world is ending Andrew Friedman is an idiot!”
{Smacking of Sarcasm}
For the record I’m not whining about Joe Kelly nor criticizing Andrew Friedman. I’m just saying Joe Kelly sucks and I knew that from the get go.
But I wish Friedman would have swapped him and Scott Alexander for Joakim Soria and Sean Doolittle. That would definitely be an upgrade. Oh well.
The Dodgers saw up close and personal what Kelly could do during the 2018 World Series. They knew that his career was a roller coaster, but Honeycutt thought he could “fix” him. He didn’t! End of story.
The three strikes against Kelly:
1. He usually sucks.
2. He broke Hanley’s ribs which basically caused the Dodgers to lose to St Louis in playoffs.
3. He was at his best while pitching against the Dodgers in the 2018 WS.
Hanley got him back:
Joe Kelly is a really good dude. Everyone would want him on their team… if only he could pitch!
I would only have Kelly throw fastballs this Spring until he can throw it for strikes. And if he can’t then he’s gone.
You are being an ambulance chaser. Who wants to stand in against Kelly until he can find the plate? All in good humor!
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It’s a tough job… drinking beer and doing a Webinar to Craft Beer Brewers, but someone has to do it.
Really dark Mark! Did you black out?
What/
===== ?
Where?
Am I/>?
Thanks Mark. Agree totally with you that we do not know what is going on in the players lives that affects their performances. That is why I am still of the opinion that Gavin Lux might have been affected by the things that happened in his home town of Kenosha. But, I do not know for sure. Just a guess and hoping he does well this year.
Red Sox put Sale on the 60 day. LA has still not cleared roster space yet for JT.
Carson Wentz is a Colt.
https://twitter.com/espn/status/1362490737338822663?s=20
Not sure if it is good or bad?
He Wentz from Philly to Indy! I know, bad pun….saw a video of Dodger pitchers throwing, Buehler, Price, Gonsolin and May. Mitts were a poppin.
Good to know Buehler is ready from the get go this year. Wonder what influence Bauer will have with some of our younger pitchers and their spin rates and all of Bauer’s metrics? I know Buehler was excited about signing him.