And the 2021 MLB Season Begins

Posted By on February 17, 2021

Today is the day that pitchers and catchers are due to report to Camelback Ranch for the Dodgers.  Tomorrow is the first day of workouts.  Full squad reports February 22, with the first full squad workout scheduled for February 23.   The Dodgers play their first spring training game on Sunday, February 28 against the Oakland A’s at Hohokam Stadium in Mesa, Arizona.

There will be some rules in effect that could become head-scratching.

  1. Pitchers will be able to reenter games if a manager decides to do so.
  2. For the first two weeks of spring training, through March 13, the defensive manager can end an inning before a third out at his discretion, as long as the pitcher has thrown at least 20 pitches.
  3. The three-batter minimum rule for pitchers will be in effect for games starting March 14.
  4. For those first two weeks of spring training, games can be shortened to seven or five innings if both managers agree to do so.
  5. For spring games starting March 14, both managers can agree to shorten games to seven innings.

Spring training rosters are capped at 75, which should not be a problem for most teams.  That would be up to 35 Non-Roster Invitees (NRI) to camp.  The Dodgers have officially released their list of NRI, and there are 29 names of NRI to ML Camp.  Singing The Blue listed them yesterday, but I will list them again below.

Pitchers (16)

  • RHP Josiah Gray
  • RHP Michael Grove
  • LHP Mike Kickham
  • RHP Landon Knack
  • RHP Nolan Long
  • RHP Jose Martinez
  • RHP Bobby Miller
  • RHP Brandon Morrow
  • RHP Jimmy Nelson
  • LHP Robinson Ortiz
  • LHP James Pazos
  • RHP Ryan Pepiot
  • RHP Nick Robertson
  • LHP Enny Romero
  • RHP Gus Varland
  • RHP Kendall Williams

Catchers (3)

  • Steve Berman
  • Tim Federowicz
  • Hunter Feduccia

Infielders (10)

  • Jacob Amaya
  • Andy Burns
  • Michael Busch
  • Matt Davidson
  • Omar Estevez
  • Kody Hoese
  • Devin Mann
  • Rangel Ravelo
  • Elliot Soto
  • Miguel Vargas

Outfielders (2)

  • James Outman
  • Andy Pages

Interesting group of players with some real head scratching questions, but there are some just as interesting players not included.  Where is Clayton Beeter?  With only six catchers in camp (and 39 pitchers), where is Diego Cartaya, Carson Taylor and Ryan January?  Where is Alex De Jesus, Cristian Santana, Carlos Asuaje?  Are Andy Burns, Rangel Ravelo and Elliot Soto better options for LAD?  Not this year, and not ever!!  It’s clear that the Dodgers are looking at how to fill the infield positions at OKC and Tulsa rather than bringing in some of the young international free agents.  But that is from the outside looking in.  AF did not consult with me or advise me as to the reasons for his decision.

While it has been evident for some time, one other thing it shows is that the Dodgers really do not have any OF ready to be a regular at the ML level.  DJ Peters is the closest right now, but he is probably getting his apartment lined up in OKC.  If AJ Pollock gets injured, Peters probably gets called up unless they stick CT3 out there.  Raley and Reks are at best #5 OF.  And now LAD invites James Outman and Andy Pages.  Of that duo, Pages figures to be a legit OF prospect, but not for at least two years.  Outman figures to be another LH version of Raley and Reks.  LAD need to do a better job at finding and developing OF prospects.  Notice Jeren Kendall is not invited.  Call me not surprised.

ST safety protocols:

  • Social distancing will be enforced at all times.
  • Appropriate masks will be required unless fans are eating or drinking in their ticketed seats. Neck gaiters, bandanas and masks with valves are not considered appropriate masks.
  • Concessions and retail will be cashless and contactless operations.
  • Hand sanitizing stations will be available throughout the ballpark.
  • Practice fields will be closed to fans.
  • No bags will be permitted except for those that are carried for medical reasons or manufactured diaper bags that accompany infants and young children.

The 26 man roster will be set come April 1, and there are very few questions as to how the roster will be finalized.  Will there be 12 or 13 position players?  The Dodgers are very deep, but the deepest position they appear to have is pitching.  If the season starts on time, and there are no changes to the schedule, the Dodgers only have three off days for the month of April to May 6, including 14 consecutive days from April 22 thru May 5.  Thus, the first 32 games being played in 35 days, screams of more pitching.  Innings will be monitored and managed so that the team can stay healthy through the post season.  So I would project to start the season with 12 position players and 14 pitchers.

For the position players, the key question is whether Gavin Lux is up to task of being the everyday 2B.  It has been my contention that Lux has earned the right to fail, and that the Dodgers lineup is so strong that they can afford to take some time for Gavin to get comfortable without pressure of being a former MiLB Player of the Year.  Assuming he succeeds as I believe he will, then CT3 will be the swiss army knife and will join Austin Barnes, Edwin Rios, and Zach McKinstry as a reserve.  That will be two RHH and two LHH reserves.

If for whatever reason, Lux comes out of ST similar to his 2020 performance, he will find himself back in AAA trying to resurrect his career.  I have no doubt that he will eventually succeed.  Maybe not in 2021, or with the Dodgers, but Gavin Lux will succeed.  If that scenario comes to fruition, CT3 will become the everyday 2B, and one of Reks, Raley, Peters, or Beaty will make the final 26 out of ST.

The Dodgers have 8 starting pitchers on the 40 man.

  • Clayton Kershaw
  • Walker Buehler
  • Trevor Bauer
  • David Price
  • Julio Urias
  • Dustin May
  • Tony Gonsolin
  • Mitch White

Their top prospect, Josiah Gray, is another starting pitcher candidate.  As well as former Brewers starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson.  How many teams can boast  starting pitchers?  I cannot predict what becomes of the bottom three listed above.  Do they go to the bullpen?  Do they go back to AAA to remain starters?

It is often stated that relievers are inconsistent from one year to the next.  With a few exceptions, I believe that is true.  Teams may have one or two that can be consistently good, but when bullpens are made up of 8-9 pitchers at one time, most of the bullpen is unknown.  I have never seen the movie Forrest Gump, but I have seen clips for many years.  And I like to use the scene about chocolates, and change the verse to be…”Bullpens are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get.”

Bullpen?

  • Kenley Jansen
  • Blake Treinen
  • Corey Knebel
  • Joe Kelly
  • Victor Gonzalez
  • Brusdar Graterol
  • Scott Alexander

And two of: Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Brandon Morrow, Jimmy Nelson, Mitch White, Dennis Santana, James Pazos, Gerardo Carrillo, Garrett Cleavinger, Alex Vesia…I personally believe Gonsolin is headed to the pen, and could very well prove to be a huge addition to the late inning high leverage horses the Dodgers are stabling.  That would leave one.  I am hoping that Brandon Morrow will stay healthy and find his pitch again. He was elite in 2017 and half of 2018, why not again?  Relievers fall down and pick themselves up all the time. Maybe 2021 will be the return of Brandon Morrow. But without a long man, I am leaning more towards Mitch White or Jimmy Nelson.  Mitch White should continue to start at AAA, so I am calling Jimmy Nelson the 9th reliever.  Let the competition begin.

I think one of the reasons the Dodgers agreed to move Adam Kolarek is because they want to give Scott Alexander the second LHRP role.  Is this the year that Alexander shows the reason the Dodgers traded for him?  I do not think so, but why not?

I do believe the Dodgers are hoping for one good year out of Joe Kelly.  But if he does not perform, it is entirely possible that he will be wearing a different jersey, with the Dodgers paying him after he is released.  The Dodgers are not shy about eating salary to release a non-performing player.  Hopefully the Dodgers will be able to trade Joe and have the new team pick up most of his contract this Spring. There are plenty of youngsters ready to take up the slack for the loss of Kelly.

Of the top group, I am most excited about Victor Gonzalez.  His swing and miss pitch is his slider, which he threw 35.9% in 2020.  Opponents were 2-for-32 against it, and he recorded 18 of his 23 total strikeouts with that pitch.  Overall in 15 regular-season appearances (one start), Gonzalez pitched to a 1.33 ERA, 1.67 FIP and 0.74 WHIP with 23 strikeouts and just two walks in 20.1 innings.  His ground out to air out ratio was 2.25, thus giving credence to his zero HRs allowed.  He keeps the ball down. 

In 8 postseason games, as a rookie, VGon was not nearly as dominant, but still effective.  VGon pitched 6.2 innings allowing 2 earned runs (2.70 ERA) on 5 hits and 4 walks.  The two runs he did allow came in the 2nd game of  a pair of back to back games.  He needs more experience in pitching back to back games, so he can get that feel.  He inherited 9 runners, allowing 3 to score.  Two of those runs came in Game 1 of the WS, where his nerves could very well have gotten the best of him.

Per Baseball Savant, below are his 2020 percentile rankings.

VGon is a keeper and at year’s end, I think VGon will be considered amongst the elite relievers.

My favorite MiLB pitcher is one who I do not think will get The Call this year: Ryan Pepiot.  I have always been a believer that a pitcher with a great change is a keeper.  Eric Gagne, and last year’s phenom, Devin Williams, had/have great otherworldly changeups.  So do starting pitchers, Luis Castillo and Shane Bieber.  Ryan Pepiot has an outstanding changeup, and it really took a big step to being devastating last year. Ryan figures to continue to start this year (that is where the money is), but I believe Ryan will become an elite high leverage reliever as early as this September, but more likely next year.  Below are a number of twitter videos of Pepiot.

This article has 46 Comments

  1. Excellent analysis Jeff. I was wondering why I did not see Asuaje’s name on the list. Maybe he has not passed his physical yet and his MiLB contract has not been verified yet.

  3. Great breakdown, Jeff!
    As usual, I agree with almost everything you highlighted.
    I expect McKinstry to win a roster spot, but would like to see Neuse compete for the utility role as well. He provides a right handed bat with some pop and is also a solid defensive third baseman.

    1. Right. If Lux isn’t ready, Neuse enters the bench discussion even more seriously. If we carry 5 bench guys, he’s also in the mix. And don’t forget about Ruiz.

  5. Umm, dude. Forrest Gump is one of the best movies ever, with one of the VERY best soundtracks EVER!!

        1. I generally don’t pay much attention to reviews from people who haven’t seen the movie.

          C’mon DL, I’ll pay you a dollar to watch it.

          1. I’ve walked through a room when it was playing. I’m not accepting anything less than $50. Time is money 🙂

    2. Gump was a very good movie, well written and well acted. Gary Sinise was outstanding as Lt. Dan. Anyone who has never seen it, should not critique it. It is funny it is mentioned here today because I am wearing my Stupid is as stupid does T-shirt that was bought for me at the Bubba Gump Shrimp Co. The soundtrack was great, but so was the soundtrack from “Good Morning Viet Nam”.

        1. Well, I watch all kinds of movies. And some are pretty entertaining. That is why I watch them. Gump is nothing more than a fantasy trip of nostalgia. The interposing of newsreel footage of JFK and Johnson with him is brilliant, and well done. It may be shit to you, but I have seen plenty of big time productions that are much worse. The soundtrack was great.

    3. 100% agree. Gump is and will always be a classic. Funny and sad. Very well done and acted by all that were in it. Everyone is entitled to their opinion about the movie but those talking crap about it that have not seen it are being ridiculous. Its like having an opinion about what a girl looks like that you have never laid eyes on. Who even does that?

      1. I loved the scene on the shrimp boat in the hurricane with Lt Dan up on the mast. It was classic. And Dan coming to the wedding with his new legs was a real tear jerking moment. But I really loved the scene when he dropped his pants to show Johnson his wound.

  6. Great write-up AC. Thank you. I am so glad and happy that we will have a minor league season and very excited to watch them progress. Rooting for them all.

    My head is getting sore from scratching as I am trying to understand some special rules they are going to use.

    1. Pitchers can re-enter games. Is there a shortage of pitchers?

    2. The manager can end an inning at his discretion before three outs are made. Is there a shortage of batters?

    What do you think of these, AC and do you know why they may be used?

    2. Football and basketball allow players in and out of games. I wonder what it would do to the grand ol’ game if they allowed that in MLB?

      1. Never thought about that before and just about every other sport allows a player to be subbed in and out. I guess the DH is the closest we get to having a player play without actually being on the field defensively. Not really the same I know.

    3. Away teams do not send a lot of pitchers, especially early in the spring, especially in the pandemic. Games have ended before 9 innings early on before. Generally the managers will get together and agree on what is best for both teams. Maybe a manager wants to end the game, but the opposing manager wants to see one more batter, and they will agree. We are not going to see 5 inning games. There will be more 8 inning games and I doubt that we will ever see a game go past 9 innings.

      As far as allowing pitchers back in, I am not sure how often (if ever) that will happen. However, we know that pitchers go back to the pen to get in extra work after their one inning or two innings are up. Possible scenario, the team summons that pitcher back to the mound to get one out rather than bring in another pitcher. Again, this is probably due to the reduced number of pitchers going to away games.

  7. Long time reader, but not much of a commentator. I wondered the same thing as DodgerBlueMom about the ST rules. With all the players the coaches and managers who want to look at players in game situations, why would they want to end a game early? Maybe weather conditions? It would be fun to see a pitcher reenter a game to get a certain hitter out though (but that could be risky for their arms).

  9. If Dodgers are lean in outfield prospects that could play in 2021, it seems like with Barnes now in tow, we could expect a Ruiz trade, maybe enhanced with a pitching prospect.

    1. I’d be more concerned about our OF were it not for three things:

      1. Bellinger & Betts are both basically play-every-inning guys at this point in their careers.

      2. Lux & Busch both have the potential to play LF if we decided to go that way.

      3. LF is literally the easiest position to fill on the entire diamond and we currently have a decent one.

      But, yes, we need one of Pages, Peters, J-Rod to hit.

      The guy I really like is Vogel. Elite speed and defense and a surprisingly live bat. Watch for him.

    3. Why would you trade Ruiz? What if Barnes or Smith goes down with an injury? Then what? Unless a team gives us an offer we cant refuse then no way. And If you think the Dodgers are “lean” in the OF then maybe look at the other 29 teams and tell me whose is better. Taylor, Beatty and a few others can also play any of the OF positions should any of the big 3 need some rest. No big deal that I can see.

  10. Nice analysis, Jeff! Can’t believe that it is ST already! You mentioned some of the players who were unexpectedly left off the list of NRIs. Can they be added later? Could it be that the Dodgers don’t want to invite everyone at the same time due to Covid considerations? Too many people in the clubhouse at once?

    I’m also impressed with VGon. He seemed to come out of nowhere. Where/how do they find these guys? And the starting pitchers as a whole: What an embarrassment of riches! You could split that group into two and any randomly chosen half of them could be better than the starting 4 or 5 on many MLB teams. Also a great insurance policy against injuries and the stress and strain of a long season.

    Will they use a 5 or 6 man rotation? And what about Trevor Bauer’s preference to pitch every fourth day? Does KJ have one good season left? Is JT worth his new contract? And which Gavin Lux will show up? These are the kinds of questions we love to entertain! What a luxurious position we are in to have these kinds of questions. Can’t wait for ST and the season!

    1. Each team has a max of 75 players that can be in camp. The Dodgers have 38 available from the 40, but I assume that JT will take one of those spots. With 39 on the 40 in camp and 31 NRI, that will leave another 5 who could join the team this Spring. Yes, the teams can revisit their list, but they must inform MLB Commissioners Office with any changes.

  11. Great write up Jeff. Lots of information here to digest. Folks were concerned about pitching depth but when I look at the list of invitees, my head spins. Getting enough innings and looks at all of these guys looks extremely challenging. And getting it down to 12 or 13 even more so. I think the roles of Gonsulin and May are very interesting. May’s stock seems to have dropped slightly at the end of the season and over the winter. Fair or not, I’m a big fan. I think he has a huge upside, eventually as a starter but as a reliever now with the big club. He needs to miss more bats, refine his command in the zone and improve his change. When that happens, and it will, he will be a dude. Whether that’s in a relief role for now or at AAA (which I don’t love) remains to be seen. But nobody should sleep on this kid. He’s going to be a mainstay in somebody’s rotation for along time. He brings way more to the club than Kelly who is kept due to his bloated salary. I’d hate to see May in AAA while Kelly sits in the pen waiting for a low leverage situation.

    1. The other thing people forget is that there was no minor leagues last season. A lot of these guys have not seen any game action in over a year and no telling what is going to happen with their arms.

  12. For those who haven’t seen any video of Busch and are interested, here’s a clip.

    I love how relaxed he is at the plate and his swing is a thing of beauty. He absolutely looks like a hitter. He also looks like a football player, which makes him even more valuable since we can use him at second base, left field or fullback.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2A597xbLtFA&utm_email=B4EAE434342F4464340734A503&g2i_eui=RU5i7lYh9F36O5539GVP88Ppe7ZYbN8N&g2i_source=newsletter&utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=Email&utm_term=Here+he+is+batting&utm_campaign=scng-regional-dodgers&utm_content=manual

    1. I like the swing but would like for him to not fight gravity as much as he does by holding his bat where he does.

    1. I would assume that he’s the replacement for Raúl Ibañez. Roenicke is a good baseball man

    1. I think he believes as some do Eric that May will start the year at AAA to get some more experience as a starter. Gonsolin seems to be suited better for long relief than May.

  16. Padres sign Tatis Jr to a 14 year, $340 MM deal. He has a full no trade clause.
    This means he’ll be available to us after the 2034 season if we’re interested.

    Congrats to Bear for breaking this story first. Another feather in your cap. Do you wear a cap with feathers in it?

    1. No trade clauses are meant to be broken. If in a few years the Padres fall apart and are not going anywhere he will agree to waive that if he goes to a contender. Also in 5 years this deal may look like a bargain with the way salaries are going.

    2. Back in the day I had a feather hat band something like Richard Petty used to wear. Got rid of that years ago. My hat now has cavalry swords and the gold cavalry chord. My Stetson Big Country has a silver hat band. I do not use them on my straw hats.

    3. Full no trade – So did Nolan Arenado and Giancarlo Stanton. No trade means pay me more when I agree to be traded.

      The bar has been set.

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