In a November 15, 2015 article authored by Matthew Moreno at dodgerblue.com, Andrew Friedman and Dodgers president and CEO Stan Kasten maintained that the extravagant spending for the Dodgers would not continue, and that the 2016 season would provide a small opportunity to make progress toward balancing the scale. According to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times, Dodgers co-owner Todd Boehly recently echoed a similar sentiment, going so far as to say the club may need to get near league average in terms of payroll:
“We’re looking toward building something long-term, and sustainable,” he said. Leading the league in payroll every year, he said, is not sustainable. “I think sustainable is more like the league average,” Boehly said, “plus some, or plus a lot.”
So when fans advise us that the Dodgers have the financial might to go well beyond the CBT threshold based on not only what was said at the time, but what has occurred since. Mark Walter, Todd Boehly, Stan Kasten, Magic Johnson, et al purchased the team on May 1, 2012. Thus, the first year they had full control of the payroll was 2013. Below is a table of CB Tax Payroll for each year beginning with 2013. The numbers in the parenthesis indicates the payroll ranking that year. The source of the material is from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
40 Man Roster Payroll for CBT Threshold Determination
- 2013 $243,234,050 (1)
- 2014 $277,737,082 (1)
- 2015 $297,918,681 (1)
- 2016 $252,551,634 (1)
- 2017 $253,633,893 (1)
- 2018 $195,039,730 (4)
- 2019 $204,918,530 (4)
- 2020 $204,653,651 (5)
2018 was especially poignant as that was the year that MLB had “advised” Dodger owners to get below the CBT threshold, or there would be consequences. The problem was not so much the payroll, although there were certainly complaints from other owners, but that the Dodger ownership was not adhering to the debt/equity relationship they were required to comply with after their fifth full year. There were no reported stipulated consequences, but like all financial issues involving MLB organizations, those remedies were to remain between the owners. But something obviously caught their attention. A $58MM decrease in payroll in one year???
The Dodgers have managed to stay under the CBT threshold for three consecutive years, but David Price opting out in 2020 certainly helped. Those payroll “corrections” enabled the Dodgers to not only trade for Mookie Betts, but it also allowed them to sign him to a 12 year $365MM contract.
The Dodgers have been not only competing, but contending for the last several years, landing in the Fall Classic in three of the last four years. It might have been four, but the Nationals were a team of destiny in 2019, starting with the Trent Grisham error late in their wild card game against the Brewers, followed by several questionable managerial decisions in Game 5 of the NLDS by our beloved Dodgers.
During these last several years, the team has been riding the coattails of some outstanding prospects that turned into superstars (or potential superstars). Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias, and Walker Buehler. These four will becoming FA starting with Seager for 2022, followed by Belli and Urias for 2024, and Buehler for 2025. The FA years are actually well placed, but it is a significant number of top FA coming of age around the same time. Of course having major contracts like Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen coming off the books at the right time helps. One of the components of the AF genius that Mark touched on yesterday, was that AF is looking waaaaaaaay out to review the roster architecture and resultant salary barometers, so that the payroll demands can line up nicely with the payroll supply.
A while back Cassidy requested an analysis as to what the possibilities of the Dodgers being able to sign all of their elite players…Seager, Bellinger, Urias, and Buehler. Below is a working table of the projected salaries for 2021-2025. I have made multiple assumptions, which may or not be valid. I have zero knowledge and/or experience in determining arbitration or free agent salaries. But it is a working project and subject to change (Thank You Captain Obvious). I will identify the assumptions below the table. I am using AAV salaries.
| Player | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Clayton Kershaw | 31,000,000 | FA | |||
| David Price | 15,000,000 | 15,000,000 | FA | ||
| Mookie Betts | 25,554,824 | 25,554,824 | 25,554,824 | 25,554,824 | 25,554,824 |
| Kenley Jansen | 16,000,000 | FA | |||
| AJ Pollock | 12,000,000 | 12,000,000 | 12,000,000 | ||
| Cody Bellinger | 16,100,000 | 22,000,000 | 26,000,000 | FA | |
| Corey Seager | 13,750,000 | FA | |||
| Blake Treinen | 8,750,000 | 8,750,000 | FA | ||
| Max Muncy | 8,666,667 | 8,666,667 | FA | ||
| Joe Kelly | 8,333,333 | FA | |||
| Chris Taylor | 6,700,000 | FA | |||
| Corey Knebel | 5,250,000 | FA | |||
| Julio Urias | 3,600,000 | 7,200,000 | 12,000,000 | FA | |
| Walker Buehler | 3,725,000 | 10,000,000 | 15,000,000 | 19,000,000 | FA |
| Tommy Kahnle | 2,375,000 | 2,375,000 | FA | ||
| Austin Barnes | 1,750,000 | 2,000,000 | |||
| Dylan Floro | 975,000 | 1,500,000 | 2,000,000 | FA | |
| Scott Alexander | 1,000,000 | Non Tender | |||
| Adam Kolarek | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 | A3 | FA |
| Caleb Ferguson | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 | A3 | FA |
| Will Smith | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 | A3 |
| Dustin May | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 | A3 |
| Edwin Rios | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 | A3 |
| Brusdar Graterol | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 | A3 |
| Matt Beaty | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 | A3 |
| Dennis Santana | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 | A3 |
| Tony Gonsolin | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 | A3 |
| Gavin Lux | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 |
| Keibert Ruiz | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 |
| Josh Sborz | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 |
| Mitchell White | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 | A2 |
| Victor Gonzalez | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 |
| Zach McKinstry | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 |
| Luke Raley | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 |
| D. J. Peters | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | A1 |
| Andre Jackson | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb |
| Gerardo Carrillo | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb |
| Zach Reks | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb |
| Edwin Uceta | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb | Pre-Arb |
| 0-3 year players | 5,600,000 | 7,700,000 | 6,300,000 | 4,900,000 | 2,800,000 |
| Kenta Maeda | 564,000 | ||||
| – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 40 man players MiLB | 2,250,000 | 2,250,000 | 2,250,000 | 2,250,000 | 2,250,000 |
| Est. Player Benefits | 15,500,000 | 15,500,000 | 15,500,000 | 15,500,000 | 15,500,000 |
| Projected 40 Man CBT Payroll | 204,443,824 | 140,496,491 | 116,604,824 | 67,204,824 | 46,104,824 |
| CBT Threshold | 210,000,000 | 210,000,000 | 210,000,000 | 210,000,000 | 210,000,000 |
| Amount under threshold | 5,556,176 | 69,503,509 | 93,395,176 | 142,795,176 | 163,895,176 |
| – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Clayton Kershaw | 20,000,000 | 20,000,000 | 20,000,000 | – | |
| Corey Seager | 28,000,000 | 28,000,000 | 28,000,000 | 28,000,000 | |
| Kenley Jansen | |||||
| Joe Kelly | |||||
| Chris Taylor | |||||
| Corey Knebel | |||||
| David Price | |||||
| Max Muncy | |||||
| Austin Barnes | |||||
| Cody Bellinger | 30,000,000 | 30,000,000 | |||
| Julio Urias | 20,000,000 | 20,000,000 | |||
| Dylan Floro | |||||
| Blake Treinen | |||||
| Walker Buehler | 30,000,000 | ||||
| Caleb Ferguson | 7,000,000 | ||||
| – | – | – | – | – | – |
| A1 Players | 800,000 | 6,000,000 | 2,850,000 | 2,000,000 | |
| A2 Players | 2,000,000 | 16,000,000 | 11,250,000 | ||
| A3 Players | 5,000,000 | 35,500,000 | |||
| A4 Players | |||||
| – | – | – | – | – | – |
| FA and Arbitration Payroll | 48,800,000 | 56,000,000 | 121,850,000 | 163,750,000 | |
| – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Below 2021 CBT | 20,703,509 | 37,395,176 | 20,945,176 | 145,176 |
● Estimated amounts are bold and italicized.
● I have only included Dodger players currently under contract. I have not considered any free agents, Dodgers or otherwise.
● 2022 Free Agents:
Clayton Kershaw – Assume will sign a 3 year $60MM. I doubt that AF will go 3 years, but I wanted to assume that everyone wants Kershaw to retire as a Dodger without hesitation.
Corey Seager – I do not think Seager is in the Frankie Lindor salary range, who will expectedly sign a $300MM+ contract for 10 year deal. I went with Seager signing a $280MM over 10 years. That is more in total than Nolan Arenado, but the 10 years gives a lower AAV. With Boras, I assume there will be opt outs available, but I am not going to consider them.
Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, CT3, and Corey Knebel will not be retained.
- 2022 First Year Arbitration players
- Caleb Ferguson – 800K
- Adam Kolarek – Non Tender
- 2023 Free Agents: Assume none of David Price, Blake Treinen, Max Muncy, Tommy Kahnle, nor Austin Barnes will be retained.
- 2023 First Year Arbitration Players –
- Will Smith – $1.5MM
- Dustin May – $1.5MM
- Edwin Rios – $1.0MM
- Brusdar Graterol – $800K
- Tony Gonsolin – $1.2MM
- Matt Beaty – Non Tender
- Dennis Santana – Non Tender
- 2023 Second Year Arbitration Players
- Caleb Ferguson – $2MM
- 2024 Free Agents:
- Cody Bellinger – $30MM AAV
- Julio Urias – $20MM AAV
- Dylan Floro – Will not be retained
- 2024 First Year Arbitration Players –
- Gavin Lux – $1MM
- Keibert Ruiz – $1MM
- Mitch White – $850K
- Josh Sborz – Non Tender
- 2024 Second Year Arbitration Players –
- Will Smith – $3MM
- Dustin May – $4MM
- Edwin Rios – $3MM
- Brusdar Graterol – $2MM
- Tony Gonsolin – $4MM
- 2024 Third Year Arbitration Players
- Caleb Ferguson – $5MM
- 2025 Free Agents:
- Walker Buehler – $30MM AAV
- Caleb Ferguson – $7MM AAV
- Clayton Kershaw – Retires
- 2025 First Year Arbitration Players –
- Victor Gonzalez – $1MM
- DJ Peters- $1MM
- Zach McKinstry – Non Tender
- Luke Raley – Non Tender
- 2025 Second Year Arbitration Players –
- Gavin Lux – $5MM
- Keibert Ruiz – $5MM
- Mitch White – $1.25MM
- 2025 Third Year Arbitration Players
- Will Smith – $7MM
- Dustin May – $10MM
- Edwin Rios – $6MM
- Brusdar Graterol – $5MM
- Tony Gonsolin- $7.5MM
We have no idea what the CBT threshold will be beginning for 2022. It is clear that MLBPA will insist on a significant increase in this threshold. The owners will negotiate it down. Where it lands, nobody knows. MLBPA sees this as a salary cap, which they will never agree to. MLBPA acknowledges that there are the haves and have nots, but they believe that it is up to the wealthy organizations to supplement the economically challenged rather than the players. The wealthy owners may have to go along with increased shared revenue scenarios, but this time they are going to insist that those shared revenues be used for payroll and not to supplement the owners pockets. They never want to see another Frank McCourt.
If as some believe, AF could sign a FA knowing how much FA money is coming off the books after 2021. The problem is that two of those FA will be re-signed for somewhere in the combined $50MM range eating up a vast majority of those dropped FA. If my free agent and arbitration numbers are close then AF could sign a FA in the $25MM AAV this year and get back under next year.
The next CBA could also impact the arbitration rules. I know the MLBPA is furious over the Cubs handling of Kris Bryant, and there will be a Kris Bryant rule in the next CBA. I may have been aggressive with Belli’s and Buehler’s arbitration figures, so there could be some saving there as well. I am also undoubtedly very aggressive with Clayton Kershaw, but that is a personal prerogative. And I have the Dodgers maintaining Caleb Ferguson through all of his arbitration years and his first year FA in 2025. Another personal prerogative. You can all come up with your own assumptions.
I do not think Pollock’s contract can be moved. Whether he is retained in 2023 or his option buyout is exercised, his 2023 AAV is $12MM. At this time, I have no idea who might be a future option for LF in the Dodgers organization. I am hoping it will be DJ Peters, but he is going to need to cut back on his strikeouts.
As an aside, both Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo have K rates in excess of 35% at the MLB level, giving credence that teams are willing to play players with huge swing and miss ABs as long as they have BIG POWER. Andy Pages will not be ready by April 2023 unless he makes huge strides in his swing development (not expected). Neither Jake Vogel nor Luis Rodriguez figure to be ready until 2024. I do not believe that Cody Thomas will ever make the LAD 26-man roster. Maybe some consideration should be given to Michael Busch getting some playing experience in LF this summer.
Currently the Dodgers are $5.5MM below the CBT for 2021. If the Dodgers do sign one or more FA this winter (even JT) in excess of $6MM, it will have ripple effects for the future. The Dodgers should be able slide under the CBT with JT after this year. The year that seems most vulnerable will be 2025. But they should be able to exceed that threshold for a year, and then get back underneath in 2026, when all of the 2023 first year arbitration players become FA. The Dodgers will never be able to sign all of Will Smith, Dustin May, Edwin Rios, Brusdar Graterol, and Tony Gonsolin. It will be very similar to 2021.
So while I believe the rules going forward will not be the same as they are now, at least I am satisfied that the Dodgers do have room to be able to sign all four of their BIG FOUR: Seager, Bellinger, Urias, and Buehler (plus Kershaw for three years and $60MM and Ferguson for one at $7MM). However, it is highly doubtful that they can sign all four (plus Kershaw) and also Kris Bryant or Nolan Arenado or Trevor Bauer. But I am not in charge of the Dodgers player payroll, so we shall see what level of commitment to payroll they have an appetite for.
Glad you are the one doing this. Makes my head spin. Here I am living on a little over a grand a month! But it is what it is. Players are earning what they are and it has slowed down very little. Who knew free agency was going to lead to such riches. Problem now is where is that money coming from until fans are back in the seats.
Excellent analysis, Jeff.
Very thorough and informative. I had completed a similar projection through 2025, with the same conclusion that it is possible to retain Betts, Seager, Bellinger, Urias, and Buehler after they reach free agency and still stay close to CBT threshold. However, the rest of the roster would need to consist of younger players not yet eligible for free agency, and Friedman would not have the financial flexibility he craves. Also as you pointed out, in 2026, several promising players including May, Gonsolin, Smith, Graterol, and Rios become free agents and it would be difficult to retain more than one or two of them as free agents. But if all five of these players are desirable free agents, then the Dodgers will have had very good teams for the next 5 years.
Thanks for the great work.
Very well done Jeff. I tend to think that AF will let either Seager or Bellinger walk, to keep the flexibility he so craves. I think he will pay Urias n Buehler. Hope he keeps all four, but we shall see.
Poignant indeed. I hope Muncy continues to hit well enough that we exercise his $13m option for 2023.
Hey, Bear — I did a little looking and found the game you were referencing (Dodgers beat the Reds 17-6): It was May 25, 1979: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN197905250.shtml
Looked like a fun one to attend!
Yep, that was the game. We took a bus trip to the game from George’s Round Up in Long Beach. A bar I used to play at. There were about 20 of us and we were all huge Dodger fans including the band leader, Danny Michaels. We had a blast, Sat in the reserved level about 3 rows up. I had forgotten that Seaver started that game. That was Sutcliffes rookie season when he won the ROY. Thanks. I could not remember the final score, but I knew they hit the 7 homers because there was a big story about it the next day.
Wow. I’m impressed. You can’t just read this, you have to study it. Great job, Jeff.
Wow AC, I really admire your work ethic. The question I have is, why is there always a comment about trading Pollock? He was our best hitter against left handers last year, one of three right handed bats, still a clear need, lead the team in homers last year and at $12M seems to be a steal.
I am not pushing to move AJ. I have always liked him. But his salary would be the only one to move to give more dollars to sign their FA and big dollar arbitration players. It is not just their pricey FA, but LAD will be going through this again in a couple years with the Will Smith Arbitration and FA class.
I’m not signaling you out on this subject. I just find it silly that I read articles across many sights each week and it never fails that someone will suggest trading Pollock in order to fit some other right handed bat into the line up. The purpose of adding a right handed bat would be to get better against left handed pitchers. Subtracting a right handed hitter who kills lefties doesn’t solve the problem. Who was better than Pollock at hitting left handed pitchers last year (qualified players only)? The list was short…
Tim Anderson – SS
Nelson Cruz – DH
Jose Ramirez – 3B
Marcell Ozuna – DH
Juan Soto – LF
Trea Turner – SS
That’s it. Two of them are free agents, but they’re also DH’s or worse in the field. Turner, Soto and Anderson aren’t going anywhere and Jose Ramirez will cost the farm. Juan Soto, Tim Anderson and Jose Ramirez are the only ones cheaper. Signing AJ Pollock was one of Friedman’s best signings so far. He filled a big need and did it without breaking the bank.
I agree with you. I always believed that outside of JT, the RH bat they were looking for was one coming off the bench. A David Freese type. A RH Mitch Moreland. I have never believed the Dodgers were ever truly considering Ozuna. I still do not believe they were ever seriously considering Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant. The Reds are not going to trade Suarez, and the Indians are not trading Ramirez. So for me, it has always been JT, a couple of relievers, and call it a Winter. I still believe that JT will sign, and that will be it. I think they stay with the relievers they have, plus their Non Roster Invitees.
Dammit Bear… You’re always one step ahead of me…
I find it difficult balancing my check book and always get small dull headaches when I see the see what these guys make playing a kid’s game…
It wasn’t long ago that Big D and the left arm of God were holding out for more money… Ended up Koufax got $125,000 and Drysdale got $110,000… The horror!!!
I had forgotten the year they did that until someone mentioned it last year. Just before spring training in 66. Big D ended up having a mediocre season by his standards, but Sandy’s last year was pretty good. 27 wins. Koufax would be breaking the bank and a part owner if he pitched today.
No team can continue to re-sign all their free agents, especially if they are all going to demand high salaries. Only the ones they can’t replace from the farm. Or favorites like Kershaw. Drafting well is the key to maintaining a mid level salary and staying competitive.
Though it’s easier said than done, one or two rookies need to be added every year to create roster balance and avoid having multiple holes to fill all at once. Having said that I don’t believe that Seager, Bellinger and Buehler will all be retained.
CBS reporting that Hank Aaron passed away this morning at the age of 86. Saw him play many times and was watching the game on TV when he hit # 715 to pass the Babe off of Al Downing. Class act and a gentleman. RIP Hank. I have many fond memories.
I remember that moment as well. I also remember the Braves being the Dodger’s whipping boys in the 70’s, but it may have been after Hank retired.
Hank left the Braves after the 74 season. From 61 through 81 the Braves were not a very good team. They won the west only in 1969 and then lost the playoffs to the Miracle Mets. For most of that time, the Dodgers owned them. But Aaron, like McCovey owned Big D. He had 17 career homers off of him. Vinny called his 715th. Another classic Scully moment
Jeff, your article on luxury tax analysis is outstanding. I appreciate the time you took with the table to clearly showed what we possibly have to look forward to payroll wise.
I started writing a comment yesterday afternoon on this subject of signing Seager, Bellinger, Urias, and Buehler. Could the Dodgers afford to do so? I included some salary projections for Seager and resigning Kershaw which were the same to what you used. For Buehler my estimate was $20MM AAV not $30MM. Bellinger was the same. Anyway, I came up with the same conclusion, that it was possible to resign them all. And it would be difficult to sign the second wave of FA the Dodgers would have in the future. When I finished my comment and reread it I decided it was kind of half assed. So, I deleted it. Thank goodness I did. I thought someone is going to do a much better job of writing and analyzing this subject. So when I opened up the site this AM it brought a smile to my face. You did an incredible job of presenting the information.
A couple of thoughts on the future of salaries for the Dodgers and MLB. As far as you estimating Buehler making a AAV of $30MM I think those type of contracts for pitchers will be rare. I’m not saying you are making a bad estimate (you could be right), but I felt that baseball is heading toward limiting starting pitching to only five or six innings. Seven innings is the new complete game. If ace starters are going only to pitch 180-200 innings I don’t think that can justify $30+MM a year. The thinking seems to be use a inexpensive opener, a starter for 4-6 innings, and one to three, fairly inexpensive, relievers to close out the game. It’s another way for management to reduce salaries and the risk of injuries to starters.
I believe AF has to be considering the that with the decreasing interest in baseball and other societal issues, salaries may not be what they are now in the future. Making huge commitments to Betts, Seager, Bellinger, Urias, etc might not be feasible. Fortunately, the way our FA are coming due gives AF has the opportunity to make good decisions on the future Dodgers.
Again, Jeff, thanks for your outstanding work and helping to keep Dodger fans informed.
You may be right about Buehler not getting $30MM, but I think he will be in the absolute elite when he becomes a FA. He will be a FA beginning with his Age 30 season, I can see a Scherzer, Kershaw, Price, Greinke level contract for 7 years for $210MM+ deal. Walker is a big strikeout pitcher, and a MONEY pitcher come playoffs. The top paid pitchers in MLB right now and their career SO/9 and career SO/W ratio and career ERA.
Chris Sale – 11.1 and 5.37 (MLB All Time Best) and 3.03
Stephen Strasburg – 10.6 and 4.49 and 3.19
Jacob deGrom – 10.5 and 4.79 and 2.61
Gerrit Cole – 10.1 and 4.31 and 3.19
Clayton Kershaw – 9.7 and 4.32 and 2.43
Justin Verlander – 9.1 and 3.54 and 3.21
David Price – 8.8 and 3.76 and 3.31
Zack Greinke – 8.2 and 3.98 and 3.33
Max Scherzer – 10.6 and 4.34 and 3.21
Of the above, Cole, Strasburg, Kershaw, Price, Greinke, and Verlander are $30MM+ AAV. Scherzer would be, but some of his salary is deferred bring down his current value to $28.6MM AAV. Chris Sale is $29MM. Jacob deGrom’s contract would have been $27.5MM AAV except that more than 1/3 of his salary is deferred and the present day value drops it down to $108.9MM or $21.78MM.
Walker Buehler is already establishing Ace-like numbers. His SO/9, SO/W, and ERA are more than comparable with the highest paid pitchers – 10.3 and 4.52 and 3.15.
Not to mention, Buehler’s outstanding career playoff metrics. 11 Games (all starts), 61.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 83 K, 22 BB, 39 H, 1.00 WHIP, and 5 HR allowed. He has been $$$$$ in the playoffs.
So yes, I think Buehler is only going to get better, and his numbers are already amongst the elite already.
I can definitely see your reasoning. I hope you’re right. That means Buehler has become elite and will help the Dodgers be successful. Buehler has been lights out in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see what happens.
We lose 3 Hall of Famers in a little over a week. First Tommy, then Sut, and now Hank Aaron. I remember him well. And one thing about the man always struck me. He was such a gentleman, and such a damn good ballplayer. I did not look at him as a Black man. I looked at him as one of the best I had ever seen on the field. The thing that struck me most, and I remember this well, was that most of the homers I ever saw him hit were not those towering blasts that seemed like they took forever to leave the ball park, his were laser shots that cleared the fence by mere inches sometimes. And I never remember him losing his balance when he swung. He just flicked his wrists and the ball flew. As much as the pressure of chasing Ruth got to Maris, Aaron handled the pressure with class. And he also was getting death threats all the time he was closing in on Babe. To this day, if you ask me who the all time HR leader is, I will always say Aaron. Bonds cheated. Hank did it with pure talent.
One year ago today, LA proclaimed Justin Turner day for his outstanding community works. Seems like a good anniversary to resign him.
Going with this analysis which is way above my head: for 2021, do we, can we, and could we add Justin Turner for 3/35 or whatever, AND Trevor Bauer for 2/75?
I think it depends on what their appetite is for significantly exceeding the CBT threshold. The two players would add $49MM+ AAV to the payroll, taking the 2021 projected payroll to $253.6MM or $43.6MM above the threshold. It would put the Dodgers in the 2nd surtax tier or 42.5% of the amount exceeding $40MM. In your scenario, the Dodgers would not only have a payroll of $253.6MM, but would also have a tax of $12.6MM. It seems extremely unlikely. I do not think there is a chance the Dodgers sign Bauer, but I try to never say never. IMO the Dodgers are going to sink or swim with the starters they have. Kersh/Buehler/Price/Urias/May/Gonsolin/White/Gray/Miller. I like their chances.
Luxury Tax – $43.6MM X 20% = $8.7MM
Surtax Level 1 – $20MM X 12% = $2.4MM
Surtax Level 2 – $3.6MM X 42.5% = $1.5MM
Aaron’s highest salary was 240,000 dollars. He would also be breaking the bank if he were playing now. In 23 seasons he mad 117 errors in the outfield. That averages out to 5 a year. Pretty remarkable. Most All Star game appearance too
Jurickson Profar signs a three year $21MM contract with San Diego. Profar becomes the Kike’ Hernandez for the Pads.
Profar Career – .238/.343/.428/.771 – Age 28
Kike’ Career – .240/.313/.425/.738 – Age 29
CT3 Career – .263/.335/.444/.779 – Age 30
Kike’ and CT3 are superior fielders to Profar. There’s Kike’s benchmark.
Supposedly Mets and Red Sox his most serious suitors.
I mentioned the Mets about two weeks ago as a very logical spot to land. I had not seen anyone else mention it, until just a couple of days ago. The Mets have the offense to carry his so-so bat, but his CF defense at his price would be exactly what they should be looking for. It would allow them to add another SP and RP. Just makes too much sense not to consider.
Whenever there is a talk about the G.O.A.T. in baseball, Henry Aaron has to be in that discussion. He was truly one of the Top Players – EVER! But as a man, who overcame so much in his life, he is at the top as the G.O.A.T. R.I.P. Hammerin’ Hank! #HankAaronGOAT
I still believe that the only way the Dodgers go over the LuxTax is if they sign Turner. I think Bobby is about right – given him there and keep the AAV down.
AF is only driving up the Price on Bauer! If the Dodgers sign Bauer, I’ll chance my name to Betty Crocker.
Better start baking some cookies just in case…Getting my Covid shot today……..2 fingers of tequila…it’ll kill any bug…..just kidding., the real thing in just a few minutes…probably won’t be able to type the rest of the day…those things always make my arm sore.
i’ll match you and change my name to Duncan Hines
Thanks for all the hard work on this Jeff. It’s really nice of you to be doing one of these every day for the next 29 days so that we’ll have one for each MLB team. 🙂
You seem convinced that the team will not retain CT3 after this year. I’m not so sure about that. I think his value is underestimated.
I know how much work you put into your tables, but once the CBA is renegotiated none of the numbers might make sense any longer. Who knows what changes might be in store. One that I’m sure that the players will fight for is earlier free agency and/or arbitration. That could really mess with your numbers.
I would not be surprised at all if CT3 is extended this Spring. A Jurickson Profar type contract – 3 years $21MM. That would be in line with what Max got. I recognize that they will have to replace him, but I was trying to see what it would take to sign Kershaw and Seager and absorb the big arbitration hits next winter. Would there be room for another top FA? And stay under the CBT next year? Jacob Amaya is probably a couple of years away? Would McKinstry be able to assume a full time super utility role for 2022 and Amaya for 2023? Do they need two? I am sure all of those questions plus 1,000 others are in the LAD future roster computer program.
I think you are also spot on with the assumption that the CBA will change all these numbers. To what degree????
I do not expect many at all of my assumptions to be consummated. It was just a fun exercise to see if the Dodgers could sign all their BIG 4 FA to be.
A lot of work, AC, thank you. I read it all. So glad you advanced Caleb Ferguson in payroll and future playing time. I, also, am a big Caleb fan. Have you heard anything on Ryan Moseley lately?
I have not heard anything on Moseley. He is not highly projected, so I do not think we will hear much until ST. We will have to wait and see if he gets a Non Roster Invite to ST. I do keep my ears and eyes open.
Thanks, AC.
The NL won 19 out of 20 all star games between 1963 – 1982. They would roll out the same outfield every year for years – Aaron, Mays and Clemente. How could you lose?
We lost 6 great Hall of Famers in 2020 (Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Whitey Ford, Lou Brock, Al Kaline and Joe Morgan) and already 3 in 2021 (Tommy Lasorda, Don Sutton and now the Hammer). Too many guys that I watched do great things on the field – lots of memories.
Stinks getting older but it beats the alternatives.
Mays is going to be 90 in May. Carl Erskine, although not a Hall of Famer is 96. Even the Left Arm of God is in his 80’s. Icons of our youth are passing into eternity. Come to think of it, Vin is in his 90’s too.
Hank Aaron has passed away at age 86. RIP Hank.
Just a couple of weeks short of his 87th birthday, Feb 5th. Got my shot…it was just a little prick…no soreness or redness.
Sorry Bear, I see you reported Hank’s passing earlier. I’ve got to be more careful when I post.
Not a problem my friend. We who saw him play know what a great player he was. I just happened to be on Twitter when the story broke. Posted it right after that.
An idea I wish the MLB would consider would be to not count the salary of homegrown players towards the CBT threshold. What I mean is that, if a player has been with a team since day one, his salary would not be counted. This would award teams that have drafted well and allow them to retain the player without fear of crossing the CBT. Perhaps they only have to count half or just league average. For example, instead of 31 million for Kersh, his salary would be 15.5 towards the CBT (he is still paid 31, of course). If you can’t afford the player, he walks. Otherwise, he remains with his home team if they can afford him. Just an idea… ☺
Great idea…. I like it!!
Amazing stat for Aaron. He never struck out over 100 times in a season in 23 years. His most ever was 97 in 1967 and he still managed to hit over .300, 39 HR’s, score and drive in over 100 runs. He struck out over 90 only 3 times in his career and averaged 68 a season, and his average walks per season was 69. Now that is a hitter who knows the strike zone.
Thx Jeff for that awesome analysis of Dodger payroll. Really makes me realize that not only to you need to develop young inexpensive talent but you need to also find those inexpensive nuggets like a Turner, Muncy and Taylor to balance your payroll. And I agree with AF if you have to scrimp on one area of your team it’s the bullpen. It’s just the most unpredictable.
Kike’ and Boston moving quickly towards a deal reports several sources.
Red Sox, Enrique Hernandez Reportedly Making Progress Toward Deal
The Red Sox and free-agent utilityman Enrique Hernandez have made progress toward a contract and could have an agreement by the end of the weekend, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/red-sox-enrique-hernandez-progressing-toward-deal.html
According to MLB Trade Rumors Kiki is progressing towards a deal with the Red Sox. Hate to see him go but happy he will be given a full chance to play on a regular basis. Also perhaps the powers to be will now retire #14 like they should’ve YEARS AGO.
First, I want to pay my respects to the great Henry Aaron. A truly great and remarkably consistent player. Bear has pointed out his remarkable stats and bat to ball skills. More walks than strikeouts for 23 years is unbelievable. He really didn’t draw that much public attention in his earlier years when Mays and Mantle were drawing the headlines. He just plugged away, never hitting more the 47 homers in a season. But he averaged 37 homes for 23 years. That’s remarkable.
Jeff, thanks so much for all the research and easy to understand information on Dodger payroll and the cap (I did it again, there is no cap). It will be interesting to see how it plays out with the CBA. This agreement has potential strike written all over it. That would be suicide after this covid mess.
Oh, how I remember after I quit playing, the day in 1975 that free agency came into being. Benchmark salaries went from $100,000 to a million a year almost overnight. We all thought this couldn’t last and salaries would level out. Well 45 years later, I’m still waiting for that to happen.
I hope CT3 falls into a reasonable AAV eventually so his resigning wouldn’t break the bank. I’d love to keep him around.
It’s obviously been mentioned that it will be difficult to keep Seager, Buehler, Urias and Bellinger when they become free agents. Jeff, you predicted Belli at a 30 million a year contract beginning in 2024, for who knows how many years. Maybe 20 mil, who knows. A lot can obviously happen before 2024. But of these 4, I would be most reluctant to sign Bellinger to a long term 20-30 mil AAV. I love Bellinger. His defense is plus at 2 positions. But his bat is streaky, complicated and I’m not sure that violent swing holds up over time. (Mookie looks like he could hit with his swing until 40). It’s a young man’s swing that requires great flexibility. The torque on his back and shoulders is tremendous. Tiger Wood’s golf swing caused his knees and back to suffered from the violent torque. Belli can swing like this at 24 but when he demands maybe 30 million at age 28, that makes me nervous. We will see how it goes the next 2 years but he has not been very receptive to changing much of anything. He did move about 3 inches off the plate. Maybe he won’t change. Maybe he thinks that swing will last forever. And maybe his body will hold up but I’m not giving Bellinger 30 million a year very far into his 30’s, if at all. 5 years max, taking him to 33 would be a big stretch for me without swing changes. 8 to 10 years is out of the question for me.
I wanted to be aggressive with the dollars. They can always come down thus providing more dollars under the threshold. If Belli has a couple of years similar to 2019 over the next three years, he is more likely to get $30MM AAV. He is a Boras client so he is going to push the limit. The likelihood of the Dodgers being able to sign three Scott Boras clients, and two in one year, is not all that great. It all starts next year when the Dodgers re-sign Corey Seager. Maybe the Dodgers can use 2-3 of those surplus RHP and a couple others to get that top 100 CF, just in case. Say Cubs Brennan Davis? Riley Greene from Detroit? Toronto’s Austin Martin?
Very good take Phil. Think we need to see how Cody pans out over the next couple of years, and similarities between him and Tiger are good.
Don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves – things happen in Baseball like injuries or even Pandemics, that are not foreseen. We are in pole position now and should seize the moment.
Happy with Knebel & Treinan, but even if we resign Turner, we havnt Improved our squad by much.
I said immediately after our WS win that we needed to strengthen from a position of strength – that is what bold teams do. It puts down a marker – to the players, the fans and the opposition that our work is not finished, and that we are going to improve again. Standing still is dangerous – we should keep pushing on.
Sign Bauer – he wants to come.
The Dodgers do not have pitchers in the 4 and 5 spots that have pitched enough MLB innings to know how they will stand up to a 162 game season plus playoff games. So, Bauer fills a need but he will keep the Dodgers from adding 2 pitchers for the 2022 season that have pitched at least 150+ innings.
Kike’ and Boston have a multi year deal. No terms yet. I am sure shortly they will be available. I know he did not measure up to Mark’s hopes, but I will miss him. Good luck Kike’.
Where will they play him?
TBD
Two years – $14MM. Same AAV as Jurickson Profar.
Well glad that is over. I knew he wasn’t coming back. His bat is way to inconsistent for me. I like him as a person, and he was fun to have around, but his production is just too inconsistent. But he will help Boston. Covid inoculation was about 7 hours ago now. Only some minor soreness in my arm.
Same AAV but a year less than Profar. Maybe he’ll have a nice couple of years in Boston and be glad he only signed for two years.
Bum had asked where he would play. I’ve read that the expectation is that he’ll get a lot of time at second base. They’re gonna love him in Boston. He and Verdugo, The Wild Ones.
Now all they have to do is sign Hill , trade Benintendi for pitching and sign Joc to replace him.
Probably more at 2B. Some say if they do not sign a CF, he could get time out there. I think Boston is happier with Verdugo in RF. He is still going to need to hit RH pitching to get a regular gig. He is going to back up Bogaerts. Cora could use him exactly as did Roberts.
https://dodgersway.com/2021/01/19/dodgers-worry-cody-bellinger-injury-update/
This isn’t gonna help
Watford my man… Is it gonna be cricket or 301??? Never heard…
Kike, may the force be with you.. I will miss you… You made me happy with your personality and oh yea, you won a few for me too..
Every time I see Cody’s swing I cringe… We can only hope..
Take care – Be safe…