I am not going to dredge up chapter and verse, but I was one of the few people who was excited when Andrew Friedman was hired as President of Baseball Operations for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Immediately, fans began to disparage him and called the Dodgers Tampa Bay West. Friedman was from a low-budget team who managed to get to a World Series with $51 Million Payroll. They were beaten in 2008 by the Phillies who had a $112 Million dollar payroll.
Almost everyone mocked that, but I knew the importance of buying low and selling high. He was mocked for signing Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and others. Yadier Alvarez, Yasiel Sierra, Joe Kelly, and a couple of others were also evidence that Andrew Friedman was incompetent… or so some said.
Andrew Friedman is not perfect! HELLO! He has made plenty of mistakes… maybe even signing Kenley Jansen to a big deal (that remains to be seen). However, he is not going to keep doing the same things over and over, expecting different results. He has learned not to throw big money to relievers.
However, listen to this closely: The only people who don’t make mistakes are people who never do a damn thing. The great Teddy Roosevelt wrote this:
Andrew Friedman is a “work-in-progress.” We all are… unless we have given up. No one can train to never make a mistake. Mistakes happen, but don’t keep making the same ones over and over. When the Dodgers signed international players who were boat anchors, Andrew Friedman fired the people in charge of that and went a different direction. He has never done that again.
In the interim, he has made the Dodger Farm System into one that is “insanely deep” and the Dodgers have had the best record in baseball during his tenure, winning one World Championship (it should be two, but let’s not even mention the ASStricks).
Some people say that Andrew Friedman does not value relievers. That is not true. He does value them… it’s just that his value is tempered by cost. He doesn’t value them like you do, because he has an amount that he can spend and he understands how fickle relievers can be. He understands that paying $54 Million for Liam Hendriks does not guarantee anything. Hendriks could be the greatest relief pitcher in the history of baseball this season or he could get injured, or he could fall flat on his face.
Don’t get me wrong, I believe that Hendriks will most likely have a fine year, but the reality of the situation is that Liam Hendriks has had 3 good seasons in his ten-year MLB Career, and his career ERA is 4.10. By contrast, Pedro Baez’s career ERA is 3.03. Of course, I am not saying I would take Baez over Hendriks – I happen to think Liam is a guy who “got it” late in his career, but there are no guarantees with relievers.
Bear covered the bullpen yesterday and listed the bullpen options. The Dodgers have a full roster of relievers, so much so that a few pretty good pitchers will likely not make the Opening Day roster. “But, Cleavinger has never been good.” Yeah, and Hendriks had never been good until he was!
Brandon Morrow has only pitched 209 innings since the start of the 2013 season. The only question with him is health. In his last four seasons, his ERA’s were 2.73, 1.69, 2.06, 1.47. I doubt that there is any reliever in baseball who has recorded those low numbers in his last four seasons. All I know is that if Brandon Morrow is healthy, he has a pretty good chance of being one of the best relievers in baseball. I cannot predict what he will do in 2021, but… here’s the MAIN POINT: You don’t know what any pitcher will do in any given year.
What are the Dodger’s plans for Jimmy Nelson. I have no clue, but could it be in the bullpen? I have no idea, but they see something. I would have liked to have Alex Wood back, but Alex wants to have the opportunity to start. Good Luck with that Alex, but I don’t have much confidence in that endeavor.
I have developed a new method of evaluating relievers and have posted it below:
It’s quite possible that a monkey throwing darts at random reliever names may outperform the deepest pocket GM’s in the game when it comes to picking relievers. That’s part of the reason Andrew Friedman has about 25 relievers headed to Spring Training – all he needs is to find eight! I think those chances are pretty good.
The Competative Balance Tax
The LuxTax is something that the Dodgers and every other team would like to stay away from. I can’t prove it, but I think Friedman is tasked with not paying the tax. I do think that if he signs Justin Turner to a reasonable deal, he will go over it, but that is the only way. Maybe he has offered a 2-year/$22 Million Deal. Maybe he goes three years on the same amount to lower the AAV. Not only is it really dumb to pay the LuxTax, but with so many teams struggling, it is a kick in their face to flaunt the financial strength of the Dodgers. However, make no mistake, the losses the Dodgers experienced in the COVID-19 season are real. They are just more able to weather the financial storm than most teams.
You should have learned by now, that Andrew Friedman has got this. He will continue to make some mistakes, just like we all do, but at the end of the day, I will take his methods over just about anyone else… especially armchair GM’s like me and you!
Mark – I am and have been on the Andrew Friedman train since he was signed. He doesn’t drive an express train but at least in Tampa Bay he had the little train that thought it could when others didn’t think so. Now he has a long train (depth) that can and does. I think he would have been a great lawyer never asking a question to which he did not know the answer.
He has made mistakes, but mistakes usually can’t be predicted with professional athletes. You mentioned relievers are fragile and they probably are the most fragile lot but all players are fragile and become more so with age. Big contracts often seem to change players and not always in a positive direction. Hence, most acquisitions come with question marks.
My goal for the Dodgers has always been to win the WS but more so to always be in a position to compete for it year after year. A special set of circumstances are in play for a team to win the WS so the best on paper does not always win. The team that stays competitive and gets there more often has the best chance of winning the WS and experiencing that set of special circumstances.
Some time ago I wrote a couple of articles on Friedman. If interested, here are the links.
https://thinkbluela.com/2016/01/andrew-friedmans-anatomy-of-a-pitching-staff/
https://thinkbluela.com/2014/11/so-what-exactly-is-andrew-friedmans-plan/
Excellent articles from the past Harold. I still think it was a mistake to let Greinke opt out without extending him and to not aggressively pursue his resigning before the Dbacks entered negotiations at the 11th hour. While Friedman signing of Maeda did help ease the pain, that was after signing Kazmir for $48 million with fellow oft-injured pitchers McCarthy and Anderson also on the roster.
Overall, Friedman has been a great GM, even though he has made some mistakes. I love the Teddy Roosevelt quote from Mark’s article, and it is so relevant in reviewing Friedman’s tenure. He has made so many great decisions that the occasional mistake gets most of the focus. One great decision was Friedman’s refusal to trade for Felipe Vasquez in 2019 when the Dodgers needed bullpen help. The pirates wanted at least two of Dustin May, Will Smith, Ruiz, and Lux. Friedman was roundly criticized for not trading for Vasquez who was a lights out closer that year. And then Vasquez was arrested before the end of 2019 season for sexual assault and is still in jail awaiting trial. Now Friedman probably got lucky that the Pirates didn’t take just May and Smith and instead asked for more, the Dodgers definitely avoided a disaster.
Friedman is the President of Baseball Operations. His only GM was Farhan Zaidi and they have not replaced him. There is still Josh Burnes. a former GM on staff. Some of those signings were Zaidi’s idea, like Kazmir who was with the A’s when Zaidi was.
I think you got it right on all of this, balanced view of Friedman, reasonable evaluation of relievers and a creative contract to JT to keep the aav down.
Now we wait!
Great piece about Gerardo Carrillo on Dodgers.com:
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/dodgers-prospect-gerardo-carrillo-rookie-program
He will get a shot too!
I was surprised to see that his fastball can touch triple digits with heavy sink. A little more research and he apparently has a pretty good curve and slider and his changeup has some tumble to it. Multi-inning releiver?
I read the article on the Los Angeles Dodgers site, and it was extremely favorable. But I like to temper these with some recent scouting reports. Below are two:
From MLB Pipeline
His pitches lack plane, but they are lively enough to stay off barrels if he can improve his command. Intelligent and competitive. Carrillo has the mentality to be an asset as a late-inning reliever if he winds up in the bullpen.
Fastball 65
Slider 60
Curveball 55
Changeup 50
Control 45
Overall 45
From FanGraphs
Carrillo showed up to Dodgers summer camp in what looked like the best shape of his young career, but it didn’t seem to aid his ability to repeat his delivery and he struggled to throw strikes during July intrasquads. His hellacious sinking and tailing fastball has movement that mimics his changeup (which did look better during intrasquads), while he also bullies hitters with a firm slider and a power curveball, which looks good but is easy to identify out of his hand. I have him projected in a late-inning relief role and think one of his breaking balls might eventually be scrapped.
Fastball 60/65
Slider 50/55
Curveball 50/50
Changeup 45/55
Command 30/40
Overall FV – 45
His career strikeouts to walks is 168 to 82, barely over 2/1. He is a big groundball pitcher, so he should fit right in with the ideal reliever for AF Throw hard and get groundballs. He is on his way, I am just not sure it will be in 2021. He is on the 40 man so he has a shot, and if he has a good summer, he could get a ticket for a September callup.
The 2021 projected threshold is $210MM. The minimum tax is 20% if it is the first year of being over the threshold. There is, also, a 12% surtax with an overage of $20-$40MM. So, to avoid the surtax the Dodgers could go to $230MM. The 20% tax would be on anything over the $210MM. Let’s say they go to $225MM. The tax would be $3MM ($15MM x 20%). That shouldn’t be a valid reason not to exceed the threshold. Especially if it would allow the team to obtain a difference maker. I’m not saying it should be done, but I don’t understand why it’s made into such a big deal. The Dodgers will have $70-$80MM coming off their payroll next year so it wouldn’t cause an issue in 2022. Mark, I don’t know why it would be dumb to exceed the threshold in 2021 if necessary to obtain a valuable player. And, the perception to the rest of baseball on our financial strength is not a good reason. If we were spending $250-$275MM a year like we did in the past then I would agree with you that that would be a bad look in today’s environment. But, that’s not the case.
As far as AF philosophy on building the future BP I think he’s right on with drafting and developing prospects. It’s inexpensive and has minimal financial impact if the reliver doesn’t work out. Pitch them till they reach arb. Then evaluate and decide to keep or move on to another prospect. I’m surprised that no one has taken this approach. You could have maybe 1-2 vets that are developed by the team and fill the rest of the staff with prearb pitchers.
In AF I/we trust. He’s come a long way since he arrived in LA. His vision of how to build a successful and winning baseball team has been proven to be successful. I think he’s dialed in and has a support staff that is among the best in baseball. And, I think that he will continue to provide Dodger fans with many years of winning baseball.
You’re right on two fronts, yes a $3 tax penalty is mice nuts to this team. They spend that on guys that don’t even make the team. The second is a bad look to spend a bunch of money after “negotiating” a salary cut due to last year’s operations with no fans. It’s hard to cry foul when you’re spending like a drunken sailor especially when you’re about to negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement.
The flip side is that it’s hard to pass up a good deal. Take Trenien for example. He was paid $10M last year after downright sucking the year before. Now he’s set to make $8.75 over the next two years with a club option for $8M for a third year coming off a much better season than the year before. AF did a good job taking advantage of the market. Keep in mind that Joe Kelly makes 8.3 million a year on a three year deal and if the Dodgers pick up Trenien’s option he will make 8.5 million a year for three years. A great deal if you think Trenien is better than Kelly.
I don’t buy the notion that AF won’t spend on a reliever. or he won’t spend on a boat anchor or any other generalizations about him. I think he has a formula to calculate value based on rate of pay and rate of production and he will take advantage of value based on market conditions and may sacrifice value to fill a need.
Right now his need is a RH bat, most likely a third baseman. But, if he can find value he may fill that RH bat need in another position if it makes sense. That’s probably why we’re hearing about Ozuna, but most likely only if there will be a DH. Or maybe they think he can play 1B? This is probably a signal to JT that he has other options.
I’m sure JT wants to be back with the Dodgers. He allegedly took less money on his last contract to stay with the team. He wants to retire a Dodger and is negotiating like this is the last contract he wants to sign, pushing for 4 years. The Dodgers see KB and possibly NA as free agents next year. KB is from Vegas, NV and Nolan is from Orange County, CA. I would think that they would want to keep JT’s contact as short as possible in order to keep their options open. They probably feel that he’s still good enough for next year especially since they can reduce his playing time with Rios and Taylor spelling him at 3B. But, decline is coming fast as is does with most ballplayers when they hit JT’s age.
The Bauer rumors are interesting. Maybe there’s some smoke there. Maybe they’re waiting to sign another reliever until Bauer makes his decision. If they sign Bauer they can send another one of the young guns to the pen and lesson the need for another reliever.
Just like most everybody else I like my sugar sweet. Often it can blend with bitterness and often too sweet as well. For it to be just right it has to be from experience or by accident. The bullpen was the last thing AF addressed when taking over the Dodgers. I believe he did it when he felt his evaluators he felt he could trust were in place to utilize and move forward. Like he’s aware this is his weakness as it isn’t perfect science though many fans think they got the answers. But it was good enough for a championship. There’s no such thing as the very best as there’s always room for improvement. I just look forward to the contest with fingers crossed.
I am really looking forward to David Price starting. It’s certain the guy knows pitching and at his age taking the year off should only help what’s in his tank this coming season. Hell my right arm gets out of whack just using this computer mouse. It wouldn’t if I stayed off my computer for a season. I am expecting a great season from Price.
I admit, I was not a Friedman fan. I still have reservations, but over all his performance in the job has been very good. A few missteps but like Mark said, no one is perfect. The only trade Lasorda ever made as a manager cost the Dodgers a hitter who had 400 career homers. Konerko. I think he reached a different status when he pulled the trigger on trading for Betts, and then locking him up for 12 years. Unfortunately no team can afford to sign all of their stars long term. They would be paying unreal amounts of money in the era of the CBT. Did not matter back when Steinbrenner was using his deep pockets to load the Yankees up. Along with Kersh being a free agent next season, he has his star SS to think about. And that problem multiplies exponentially if Seager has a MVP like season. Add that to his agent’s penchant for taking his stars to free agency, and Seager is lined up for a massive payday. Next season though the free agent market for SS, especially if the Mets do not lock up Lindor long term, is going to be loaded. Right after that, he has Belli and Buehler to contend with. Reports the Dodgers have contacted Bauer’s agents are floating around. Also some movement with Turner is expected by next week. Boston now considered a good bet to sign Kike. No word at all on Pederson. I watched my World Series blu ray last night. Loved it. Going to the movies tonight for the first time since last December, going to see the new Wonder Woman movie……
Mark, I love the picture of you evaluating relief pitchers. You might consider straightening your throwing wrist a little to improve your command of the lower lists.
I think your points on AF and the bullpen are spot on. It’s hard for me to get excited about any of the current relief pitchers on the market especially an expensive one. Some people falsely think expensive equates to quality and that’s not true when it comes to relief pitchers. With all the arms now in the organization, it’s impossible for me to believe we can’t come up with a top-notch staff from top to bottom. AF’s has stocked up on arms. Now they need to perform.
That’s an old picture, Phil. I’m a little grayer now.
Still that Hairy???
That’s why I wear a coat!
An interesting take on Don Sutton, from blogger Paul Mirengoff:
“ But a close look at Sutton’s stats suggest that he was an elite pitcher, not just a very good one for a long time. Four times, he had the lowest WHIP in the National League. WHIP stands for walks and hits per inning pitched. In Sutton’s time, the statistic wasn’t kept (or if it was, it wasn’t prominent). But now, it is rightly regarded as important — the pitcher’s equivalent of on-base percentage.
Tom Seaver led the league in WHIP three times. Catfish Hunter twice. Jim Palmer once. Steve Carlton never. (Looking to the next era, Greg Maddux led the league in WHIP four times. Roger Clemens led it three times.)”
He is number #3 in career games started behind Cy Young and Nolan Ryan. That is an amazing stat.
Orel Hershiser is #73 and Don Drysdale is #74. Kershaw is #207. David Price is #307. Sandy Koufax is #302.
Think about that!
Clayton Kershaw also led the league in WHIP four times… 4 years in a row! Pedro Martinez also did it four times, as did Justin Verlander.
One great thing about AF is that he hasn’t made the big mistake on expensive long term contracts that cripple a franchise. It killed the Angels and prevented the Cubs from from continuing on from 2016. So many of them end up a bad deal. And he’s built an organization that drafts and develops players as good as anyone in the business. And you’re not drafting can’t miss prospects at 30 every year. He’s done a remarkable job. But he has some huge decisions to make in the next few years. But at least he has put himself in position to sign our young stars if he so chooses
But… to sign these youngsters, he cannot trade away the farm.
Imagine if he had included Smith in a trade.
His best decision was letting Grandal walk……SMILE..LOL.
I liked Grandal, but he let him walk at the right time.
Grandal was a bridge.
A bridge over balls rolling to the backstop 😉
My sentiments exactly Bum…boom!!! Nailed it!!!
He’s done a great job distinguishing between the keepers and not. The only possible future all star was Verdugo and the return was a Betts. Alvarez never even played for us and he’s a dh which at the time did us no good. That’s what gives me hope about Lux
I don’t recall what I had for breakfast yesterday nor saying anything negative about Friedman. From the beginning however, I was not a fan of Paul DePodesta.
I find it amazing how many people seemingly unprepared for a new job can step up to the challenge. I don’t think it is as easy to step up without having full responsibility for success such as temporarily assuming duties.
I am trying to say the Dodgers might already have the pitchers for the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings if they are told they have one of those jobs and that they need to suck it up because the rope will be long.
A challenge for doing this would be to be willing to put pitchers that might otherwise be held back for rotation into those short relief spots.
Living in Washington, I would like to see Pederson, Kike’ and Turner sign with Seattle if they don’t find their way back to the Dodgers.
So Bum, do you think Seattle would sign Turner to replace Cory’s brother at 3rd base? Not gonna happen. Maybe as a DH but unlikely. Dipoto is all about a youth movement.
Bum, you and I need to be C0-GM’s for the M’s. We’d have a ball. They have close to 127 million in cap space (sorry, there is no cap) And that includes 3.7 million to Robby Cano.
Turner easily fits into their lineup sharing 3rd and DH with Seager. Joc and Kike’ fill holes as well. They have 2 pitching prospects in top 10.
Fun Don Sutton facts:
“Sutton has the record for most at-bats without a home run (1,354). Sutton holds another record: seven times in his career, he pitched nine scoreless innings but got a no-decision. He also holds the major league record for most consecutive losses to one team, having lost 13 straight games to the Chicago Cubs.”
Hopefully a couple of those losses were games where he pitched 9 scoreless innings.
Well someone in Maryland is a very happy camper today. Won powerball last night. 730 mil plus jackpot. Mega Millions is at 930.
I remember going to a game at Dodger Stadium in the late 70’s I think it was where they hit 7 homers and beat the Reds, but tons of research and I can find no record of the game. I do remember that Russell and Fergie hit homers that game, but I cannot remember who else did it.
I had a wait and see attitude with AF. I knew that he was brought over from Tampa Bay for payroll budgetary reasons, and he did a great job while in Tampa identifying talent on a limited payroll. Would he be able to identify championship talent on a larger scale? I am not going to rehash his “mistakes”. I am far more forgiving than most on this site with McCarthy, Anderson, and Kazmir.
I think it is a bit unfair to criticize him for Greinke not signing. Greinke was mercenary and was going to go wherever the most dollars were. It is easy to say that Zaidi and AF should have tied him up earlier, but who says that was the plan for his agent. His agent was always going to call the DBacks whenever the Dodgers got down to a “final” offer. It came together too fast for that conversation not to have been setup ahead of time.
The Dodgers did not have enough starting pitching to contend in 2015-2016. The Mets beat the Dodgers with Kersh and Greinke and nobody else in 2015. And nobody was going to beat the Cubs in 2016. So he bought time for his stars to shine and 2017 was when it all started to come together.
AF knew he needed pitching and yet he did not trade Seager in 2015 for Cole Hamels. Instead he got Alex Wood.
He did not trade Urias in 2016 in a trade for Chris Sale, instead he got Rich Hill. There was no guarantee that Hamels or Sale would have been difference makers in those two years, but it is also a huge question as to whether the Dodgers would have won in 2020 without Seager and Urias.
In hindsight, for 2015, he may have been able to outbid Washington for Scherzer and Chicago for Lester, but he just got the job and he had no idea what he had in his system and was not willing to commit $200MM + for Scherzer or $150MM for Lester. I think he handled it correctly. Plus he did not make the mistake with Jordan Zimmerman or Jeff Samardzija or Johnny Cueto in 2016.
Yes he has made mistakes, but he has made far more correct decisions, to pursue and not to pursue, to more than offset his mistakes. Because of his track record, I am more than willing to follow his lead on player personnel. I may scratch my head, but I believe he has all of the information to make an informed decision. He is looking three to five years ahead. And he has the Dodgers budget in hand while we fans do not.
Excellent points, Jeff!
Friedman had a lot of priorities to juggle in his first few years.
Dodgers are lucky to have him. Now get JT signed!
Baseball Prospectus just came out with their Top 101 prospects. The Dodgers have four in the top 101 (actually Top 91).
#55 – Josiah Gray
#74 – Keibert Ruiz
#77 – Miguel Vargas
#91 – Michael Busch
Miguel Vargas is getting a lot of helium as a prospect. But like many of the top LAD position prospects, he is still looking for a permanent position. Most think he is going to end up at 1B.
Vargas potentially has a big time bat though, doesn’t he?
Perhaps one of the best bats in the organization. Dodgers are VERY high on his hitting ability.
Gosh I am glad that we won the World Series. I remember when I said AF made some mistakes and I was hammered. Now I read a few comments written that AF has made some mistakes. I guess it is easier to accept when you win it all. I know it is for me. I find it interesting someone mentioning zaidi could have been behind a mistake or 2.
It was pointed the Mets beat the Dodgers because we did not have enough pitching. We had kershaw and grienke. I totally agree and I think this was the greatest missed opportunity for the Dodgers. They did not give kershaw and grienke any help. A blind man could c that and yet nothing was done. We overused kershaw then wasted a World Series opportunity with the great Brett Anderson our number 3. I just think we wasted kershaws greatest years and unfairly overused him. He was young enough to carry a load but what did that do to his future.
I am ecstatic we won the World Series and AF certainly deserves a lot of credit. The Dodgers are the envy of all of baseball. This is a great time to be a Dodger fan. I hope we can win more World Series sooner than later. I don’t really know what all the metrics would be in evaluating the head of baseball operations but certainly AF is right at the top. You could argue that preller and the guy AF trained in Atlanta are right on his heels in impacting their organizations. For my money Paul Podesta was absolutely horrible!!
DePO cost the Dodgers a Hall of Fame Thirdbaseman!
For the record, just because I think Friedman doesn’t care much about bullpens doesn’t mean I don’t like him. This has been the longest run of good Dodger teams since the 80s. Friedman has done a good job putting together position players and starting pitchers. So when I say I’d like to see a better Dodger bullpen it doesn’t mean I don’t like Friedman.
I’d like to see a better bullpen too.
I’d also like to look like Brad Pitt and play basketball like LeBron James and have Jeff Bezos’ money.
Oh well, I have bloomed where I am planted!