West Division Starting Pitching

Earlier I listed the teams in each of their proposed divisions.  At the time, it was anticipated that the Braves and Pirates would switch divisions, but otherwise the two West divisions, the two Central divisions, and the two East divisions would join together to form a single West, Central, and East division. 

The starting pitching in the West figures to range from terrific to bad to really bad.  The Dodgers are the class of the West in starting pitching when considering the five starters and the three to five who would be better than any other team’s back end starters. Dodger starters are:

Los Angeles Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw – (L)

Walker Buehler – (R)

David Price – (L)

Julio Urias – (L)

Alex Wood – (L)

Then:

Ross Stripling (R)

Dustin May (R)

Tony Gonsolin (R)

Josiah Gray (R), and maybe

Brusdar Graterol (R)

Strip is the #6 on LAD, but he could arguably be the opening day pitcher for at least two teams in the West (LAA and Seattle) and perhaps others.  Certainly in the top three for most.  Much has been written and discussed about the starting pitching for the Dodgers.  Some believe they can be exceptional, while others believe they are meh.

Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander (R)

Zack Greinke (R)

Jose Urquidy (R)

Lance McCullers (R)

Josh James (R)

The Astros present the biggest challenge pitching wise for the Dodgers at the top with Justin Verlander (R) and Zack Greinke (R).  The longer the season takes to unfold, the more time it give Lance McCullers to rehab.  He should be more than ready in July.  Jose Urquidy and Josh James are the wild cards.  Urquidy pitched well in the post season last year, including getting the win after five shutout innings in Game 4 of the WS against the Nats.  James has back end starter tools, but has been relegated to the pen, where he was not that successful in 2019.  If a lefty was needed Framber Valdez could get the call, or 24 year old Cionel Perez who was not at all impressive last year with a September callup or AAA.

Oakland A’s

Mike Fiers (R)

Sean Manaea (L)

Frankie Montas (R)

Jesus Luzardo (L)

AJ Puk (L)

This is the staff that could be outstanding or not much at all.  Mike Fiers is a cagey veteran who has had a good career resurrected in Oakland.  He does own a pair of no-hitters including one against LAD, August 21, 2015. He certainly does not qualify as an Ace, but he is formidable.

Sean Manaea does portend to be an Ace.  Manaea, still young at 26, had very successful left shoulder arthroscopic surgery in August on 2018.  After five starts at AAA, Sean was recalled and dominated in five starts for Oakland in September.  However, Sean was beat up in the Wild Card game against Tampa Bay last year.  While Fiers may be listed as the #1 in the rotation, Manaea is the Ace of the staff.

Frankie Montas is a pitcher who was having a breakout season in 2019 before being suspended for using the banned substance Ostarine, a selective androgen receptor modulator used in bodybuilding to increase strength and mass in lean muscles.  Frankie was considered the best A’s pitcher for most of the season.  It will be interesting to watch him this season.

Two LHP kids who have potential Ace stuff round out the rotation: Jesus Luzardo and AJ Puk.  I am somewhat of an A’s follower here in Northern California, so I have been waiting for these two to make the rotation.  They are both young and untested, so the A’s season will depend heavily on how these two pitch.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Madison Bumgarner (L)

Mike Leake (R)

Robbie Ray (L)

Luke Weaver (R)

Zac Gallen (R)

In my estimation, this is the second best rotation in the NL West.  MadBum is still elite even if not at what he has previously produced.  Clayton Kershaw is not the pitcher he was 4 years ago either.  Mike Leake is a poor man’s Jeff Samardzija.  He is an innings eater but not very dominant.    He will give the bullpen a rest, but will still give up a lot of runs.(career ERA 4.05, WHIP 1.281).  Robbie Ray is very unpredictable.  If he throws strikes, he can dominate.  He just has a tough time consistently throwing strikes.  Luke Weaver came to Arizona in the Goldschmidt trade.  He was starting to have a nice season when he strained his UCL, and was able to return at the end of the season.  He is a former #1 draft pick by the Cardinals was once a top two prospect for St. Louis.  In 2016, his prospect status was rated higher than Jack Flaherty.  But prospects do not always perform as projected.  There is still time for Weaver to become that dominant pitcher he was drafted as.  Zac Gallen had an outstanding rookie season in 2019.  He turns 25 in August, so this is his 24 year old season.  He shows a lot of promise as a #5 in the rotation.  Arizona has five top 100 prospects, but none are pitchers.  There is really only one close to ML and that is RHP Corbin Martin.

Texas Rangers

Corey Kluber (R)

Mike Minor (L)

Lance Lynn (R)

Kyle Gibson (R)

Jordan Lyles (R)

This is a patchwork rotation that could be above average, or it could be one of the worst. I may be overstating their ability because of my affinity for Corey Kluber.  But if he has a Kluber year, they could be a respectable rotation.  Mike Minor reinvented himself after signing with Texas. Texas signed him to a three year $28M contract, and he has turned out to be quite a bargain for them.  He is solid but not overwhelming.  Lance Lynn is another in the mold of Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake.  He threw 208 innings last year with a respectable 3.67 ERA with an even better 3.13 FIP.  Most (if not all teams) would love to have a #3 perform at that level.  I am not a huge Kyle Gibson or Jordan Lyles fan.  IMO, Gibson rode the bats of the Twins to a 13-7 record.  His ERA was below average at 4.84 (ERA+ of 95), and a FIP of 4.26.  Lyles had a very fine 2^nd half in 2019 after being traded from Pittsburgh to Milwaukee (who wouldn’t).  He had a 2.45 ERA, but his 4.42 FIP indicates that he had a lot of good luck on his side.  His career ERA is 5.11, career FIP is 4.52, and career WHIP is 1.436.  A lot of IFs in that rotation.

San Francisco Giants

Johnny Cueto (R)

Jeff Samardzija (R)

Kevin Gausman (R)

Drew Smyly (L)

Andrew Suarez (L)

The Giants season will depend largely on the right arm of Johnny Cueto.  The delay in the season will certainly allow Cueto additional time. If he can come back fully after TJ surgery, the Giants #1 will be a force.  Jeff Samardzija has never been a difference maker. He is in his fifth year of a $90MM contract, and only one of four years was the team north of .500 record.  He will eat innings, but he will not be consistent or dominate.  Kevin Gausman is an enigma to me.  He was unfortunate to be in Baltimore for so many years, and when traded to Atlanta in 2018 seemingly turned things around.  The 2^nd half 2018 is the only time Gausman resembled what he was projected to be.  But 2019 was more of his Baltimore outings. His 5.72 ERA in 2019 was tempered with a 3.98 FIP.  I have no idea what to expect from Gausman.  His home games will be in a much larger stadium that Baltimore, Atlanta, or Cincinnati.

Drew Smyly signed a one year $4MM contract, so not much is expected.  He was out two years (2017 and 2018) for TJ surgery, and did not pitch that well coming back in 2019.  Smyly’s prospects were always better than his performance.  Andrew Suarez has been a very below average pitcher in his two years at the ML level.  There is nothing to indicate that he will be a quality starting pitcher.

Colorado Rockies

Jon Gray (R)

German Marquez (R)

Kyle Freeland (L)

Antonio Senzatela (R)

Jeff Hoffman (R)

Jon Gray was the third overall pick in 2013, and has at times showed some real promise.  It is very difficult to assess a Rockies pitcher with their home games at Coors, but his career ERA is basically the same at home as it is away.  Gray is inconsistent so it is difficult to project him.  German Marquez has had three straight 160+ IP seasons, and has pitched decently, especially in 2018 at age 23.  Marquez is a different (better) pitcher away than at home.  Coming into his age 25 season, this could be a big season for Marquez.

Kyle Freeland looked to be on his way to becoming the Ace of the franchise and the face since their glory days.   In 2018, Kyle was 17-7 with a outstanding 2.85 ERA in 202.1 IP.  That was his age 25 season, and everything looked up for him.  Then 2019 hit and nothing went right for him.  He was 3-11 in only 104.1 IP and a 6.73 ERA and a not much better 5.99 FIP.  I have no idea how to project what Freeland can do in 2020.

Antonio Senzatela is another that started out decently in the first half of 2017, but has not matched that performance since.  Last year was his first year as a fulltime SP, and it did not go too well.  The Rockies have been waiting for Jeff Hoffman literally since he was the 9^th overall pick in 2014.  This is his age 27 season and he needs to turn it around this year, or he could be labeled a bust as a #1 pick.  I do not know if last year was just a bad year for the Rockies all around, but none of their pitchers (SP and RP) were all that productive in 2019.

San Diego Padres

Chris Paddack (R)

Garrett Richards (R)

Zach Davies (R)

Joey Lucchesi (L)

Dinelson Lamet (R)

The Pads are waiting for Luis Patino and especially MacKenzie Gore to break into the rotation.  Until then they will need to make due with Chris Paddack and a patchwork rotation.  Paddack had a very solid rookie season in 2019 at age 23.  He had 26 starts and 140.2 IP, with a better than respectable ERA of 3.33 and FIP of 3.95. Garrett Richards looked to be a solid mid-rotation with LAA before TJ surgery nearly two years ago ended his career with the Angels.  He signed a two year contract with the Padres, with the Padres knowing that it was really a one year $15.5MM contract. If he can come back to pitch as he did with the Angels, he could be a solid mid to back end rotation starter.  2020 is Richards’ 32 year old season.

Zach Davies and Joey Lucchesi have their moments, but I would not consider them solid starters.  Dinelson Lamet would not start for a top team. Padres are still two years away from being serious contenders.  But the Pads have not developed a top ranked solid starting pitcher since …Randy Jones?  Jake Peavy?  What are the odds that the Pads can mold Gore, Paddack, and Patino into a top ranked rotation?

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Andrew Heaney

Julio Teheran

Dylan Bundy

Patrick Sandoval

Matt Andriese

Shohei Ohtani (?)

Now we get to the first of two very poor rotations.  Arte Moreno will rue the day he chose to renege on the Ross Stripling and Joc Pederson trade.  Strip could arguably be the opening day starter for the Angels.  Mistake.  BIG MISTAKE.  Andrew Heaney could possibly become a solid starting pitcher, but anything more than a mid-rotation starter would be a leap.  Julio Teheran is an innings eater, but as the Braves learned, he is not a top of the rotation starter.  Dylan Bundy, a former #1 pick (#4 overall), is another first round pick on the verge of being considered a bust.  He has Matt Harvey written all over. I do not believe that Patrick Sandoval or Matt Andriese will be effective starting pitchers, and Shohei Ohtani is going to need to get back in the rotation.  The best starting pitcher for LAA in 2019 was the late Tyler Skaggs.  Starting pitching was horrible for LAA in 2019, and it figures to be the same in 2020.  What a shame for a team with the best player in MLB and solid offensive bats in Rendon and possibly Upton.  Yes Joc would have been perfect for LAA.

Seattle Mariners

Marco Gonzalez

Yusei Kikuchi

Justus Sheffield

Kendall Graveman

Taijuan Walker

I am not sure that any of the above constitute a solid starting option, but I think Justus Sheffield is worth waiting for.  Marco Gonzalez could be a back end starter for a quality team, but nothing more.  Yusei Kikuchi will need to improve greatly in order to even come close to earning his 3 year $43MM contract.  Kendall Graveman and Taijuan Walker have never had stellar seasons, but are adequate back end starters for a poor team.

I recognize that having the best nine man rotation does not help for the playoffs. The Astros and A’s have a three man potential to beat good playoff teams. The Rangers and DBacks are unknowns, but they figure to be the only other potential teams that could possibly compete with the Dodgers and other playoff caliber teams in a short series.

I will take a look at the other two divisions in a later post.