Well, if MLB and the MLBPA can get together about health and finances, we figure to have an abbreviated 2020 season. But that is still a BIG IF. What has been surprising to me is the number of players who are in the demographic of underlying health issues and immunocompromised, and are still willing to play. The most extreme is David Dahl who had his spleen removed after an accident with a teammate in an outfield collision while playing CF for the AA affiliate of the Colorado Rockies. Dahl had a choice. Miss the rest of the season allowing the spleen to heal, or have a splenectomy, which would allow him to get back on the field after 6-8 weeks. He was just beginning his career, and he did not want to miss the rest of the year, so he made the decision to have a splenectomy. The problem now is that after your spleen is removed, you are more likely to contract serious or life-threatening infections. Enter COVID-19.
Other players have other physical concerns. Family members of players are also at risk. Type 1 Diabetes, heart issues, recovering from cancer, asthma and other respiratory concerns can all become pronounced with poor immune systems. The Dodgers are affected as Scott Alexander has Type 1 Diabetes, while Kenley Jansen has a very well documented heart condition.
Jared Diamond and Louise Radnofsky of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) are reporting that MLB’s proposal would see players tested multiple times per week. MLB has advised the WSJ that they have the ability to gain access to tens of thousands of test kits without hurting the general public. One bit of apprehension about the testing is that the test kits are of the 24 hour variety, so the concern is that a player, coach, umpire, staff, may be asymptomatic, but will have exposed others during that 24 hour period. Per Diamond and Radnofsky…
a positive test would not result in a stoppage of play under the current proposal. Any person or persons who test positive would be immediately quarantined, while those who’d been in contact will be more closely monitored. Specifics on the protocol for contact tracing and increased or more aggressive testing in the wake of a positive test remain unknown.
According to SportsNet New York’s Andy Martino, an unnamed agent has stated that there is “no question” that some players will opt out. He goes on to say that no decision regarding service time or salary has been made.
All are waiting to see what the health regulations will be decided upon. Will they meet the satisfaction of the MLBPA who has stated that health is the number one priority? It appears that there is a long haul to complete these negotiations revolving around a virus nobody fully understands.
There are also financial concerns. The owners want the players to take a percentage of revenues rather than a prorated portion of games played. But the players believe that would constitute a cap, and that is a non-starter. Scott Boras has said that none of his clients will agree to a restructured financial arrangement negotiated and agreed to in March. The revenue challenged teams will want salary relief to minimize their losses. The MLBPA will expect the strong revenue teams to subsidize the revenue challenged teams, but will not take another hit, especially if they feel they are putting their health at risk. Every time the owners have tried to strong arm the players they have lost. The players appear to be united in their insistence that they will not renegotiate. But they will not begin to negotiate the finances until their health concerns are fully satisfied.
MLBPA executive director Tony Clark told Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich in no uncertain terms that the union has no interest in the plan reportedly being pushed by MLB:
“A system that restricts player pay based on revenues is a salary cap, period. This is not the first salary cap proposal our union has received. It probably won’t be the last. That the league is trying to take advantage of a global health crisis to get what they’ve failed to achieve in the past—and to anonymously negotiate through the media for the last several days—suggests they know exactly how this will be received.”
That is enough of the negative. Let’s pretend that both sides have agreed on both health and financial concerns and have agreed to play in home town stadiums without fans. One of the new nuances will be that the NL will now have a DH. Most AL teams have a primary DH, and I suspect that most NL teams will also have a primary DH. Whereas the Dodgers have the depth to have multiple scenarios. Previously, many penciled Max Muncy as the Dodgers future DH. Most believed that Belli would be the 1B and that Muncy would play 2B and 3B and PH. His defense was suspect, and he was deemed to be the ideal DH. But now Muncy has a three year contract, Mookie is the RF, Belli is the CF, and Max is the team’s 1B.
Let’s look at other choices:
Edwin Rios – The Dodgers have a plethora of LH DH’s available, but none with perhaps as much power potential as Edwin Rios. Rios is a big bat without a position. LAD’s new Yordan Alvarez? Rios has good power but is also a big strikeout risk.
2019 MLB – 56 PA – .277/.393/.617/1.010 – 4 HRs, 21K, 9 BB – 37.50% K rate
5 MiLB Seasons – 1,840 PA – .295/.348/.539/.887 – 85 HRs, 514K, 126 BB – 27.93% K rate
Rios’ OBP is very good and has been excellent through his career. Just like many Dodgers, Rios will supply power, but also strike out a lot. Rios also appears to capable with both RHP and LHP
Matt Beaty – Beaty does not possess the power that Rios has. However his plate discipline and pitch recognition is superior to Rios.
2019 MLB – 268 PA – .265/.317/.458/.775 – 9 HRs, 33K, 17 BB – 12.31% K rate
5 MiLB Seasons – 1,594 PA – .309/.367/.447/.814 – 34 HRs, 190 K, 120 BB – 11.92% K rate
Beaty is a better choice for multiple defensive positions. He could develop into a less defensive Kike’ or CT3, but from the left side.
Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, and Gavin Lux all figure to get some left-handed DH duties during the year.
Right handed DH candidates will come down to three; Kike’ Hernandez, CT3, and AJ Pollock. AJ Pollock is equally adept against both RHP and LHP through his career. Of course fans will only remember his 2019 NLCS, but Pollock has been a capable offensive bat through his career.
vs RHP – .279/.339/.452/.790
vs LHP – .281/.332/.503/.835
Both Kike’ and CT3 are superior defensive players to any of the potential DH candidates. I would expect that Rios will get 1st shot as the primary DH. I also expect with a Joc in LF, AJ could get some DH as a RH bat in the lineup. One thing is for certain, with the less than normal days off and the number of projected doubleheaders, the Dodgers obviously have the depth to give regulars a game off in the field and still keep their bat in the lineup. No team in MLB will have that ability. And with their depth at pitching, the Dodgers have plenty of options to keep arms fresh, especially with the number of doubleheaders. No team in MLB has the bat options or pitching options to get through a protracted and abbreviated schedule like LAD. Now let’s see if they can put it all together and get those WS rings.
Nice article on ESPN about Mookie and the type of guy he is:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29175236/dodgers-mookie-betts-surprises-supermarket-shoppers-groceries-buys-pizza-employees
Saw that. That is why Mookie is going to be a Dodger next year. He is a good citizen who will fit in very nicely with the LAD culture. Clayton and JT will push hard for Mookie. Agree with it or not, the Dodgers will pay extra for character.
I need to tap into this group’s brain trust of baseball knowledge. In the articles published on Monday about MLB ownership’s return-to-play proposal one of the points was “Expand rosters from 26 to as many as 30 active players with a 20-man taxi squad of minor league players and prospects”.
I am trying to understand the rules associated with Taxi Squads. If a player on the Taxi Squad is not already on the 40-man roster will someone have to come off the 40-man first, presumably as an IL, before that Taxi Squad player can be used? Do they get MLB pay for their appearance or just their normal MiLB pay for that game? Does their appearance earn MLB service time?
Do you think the team will populate the Taxi Squad with AAA players having MLB experience or give the opportunity to Prospects to progress their skills in a year where there might not be a minor league season?
You pose some interesting questions.
My answers are all guesses and there are probably others here who can give you actual firm answers.
I would guess that since there will be a total of 50 players to move on and off the roster, MLB might make an exception for 2020 and expand the 40-man roster limit to 50 men so there would be no need to remove anyone from the 40 man every time you wanted to use one of the last 10 players.
There is no scenario under which I could see the players union allowing a player to play in a major league game without getting at least a pro-rated major league salary. Same with earning service time for any games played.
In football, the Taxi Squad is separate from the regular roster. I can see the 26 man roster expanding to 30, but I can’t see the 40-man roster expanding. If that many players get sick or injured, you might as well stop playing.
All the plans I have seen are wrought with problems and will the owners and union be able to agree? A lot can happen between now and June 1.
Great article Jeff. I rarely comment on but I’m a regular reader. Thanks to Jeff, Harold, 2demeter2 for keeping this site going. Also big thanks to Mark for the several years he devoted to it. This is definitely the best Dodgers blog.
Hopefully, Mookie will be a Dodger a long time. Character is important and coupled with his elite talent, he’s the right guy to pay big money to keep.
Now it’s up to the owners and players to be smart and work things out that will be fair to both sides, not much hope in that happening. I’ll just wait and see.
One NL team that can absolutely benefit from the DH is Cincinnati. Defensively challenged Nicholas Castellanos now becomes a DH. They do not have to find a defensive position to hide him. Mike Moustakas, who really is not defensively challenged, will get some time as DH while perhaps Nick Senzel can get acclimated to 2B. All of a sudden Derek Dietrich becomes a valuable asset allowing Joey Votto to do some DH. It also allows for offensively challenged but a wonderful defensive OF with some speed, Travis Jankowski, to have a role. Cincinnati gets Jankowski’s glove and legs in the game, and gets to keep Castellanos’ bat in the lineup.
I continue to have mixed feelings about all of this. Of course it would be fun to have baseball to watch. And if many fans want that, I would not presume to tell them that we shouldn’t; assuming, of course, that safety can be maintained. But it just seems fabricated: the leagues are realigned for one half-season, they change the rules, they add playoff games this one time. It’s certainly still the game of baseball, but it’s not MLB, really, it’s sort of like a pickup league but with MLB players. Then presumably we would go back to the normal leagues and rules next season, though they may use this as an excuse to make the DH the rule in both leagues. I’m only speaking for myself, of course, but to me this seems more like Home Run Derby, or maybe more accurately, the barnstorming tours that some clubs used to take in foreign countries during the offseason, than a legitimate MLB season being proposed. Better than no baseball, perhaps.
I think your last sentence sums it up perfectly William. Better than no baseball at all.
Based on some of the “temporary” changes they may use this season, it would give fans a chance to see how they liked them without an actual commitment by MLB to make anything permanent.
That said, between the health issues and pay issues, it may not happen at all.
It’ll take some haggling, but I think there’s a good chance an agreement will be reached with the players union.
I think if players aren’t comfortable playing they shouldn’t have to, but they won’t get paid, either. Just like the rest of us. Seems fair enough.
Great article, Jeff! I’m really grateful you and the others are keeping the website going. Very interesting analysis of the health and financial issues involved in the negotiations. I suspect that in the end, they’ll get it done. The blow-back from the public would be great if they didn’t, and it’s in the mutual self-interest of players and owners to reach an agreement. With regard to the DH, I think that the choice will be situational with many players in the role to take advantage of match-ups.
This seems to be in keeping with the Dodgers data-driven philosophy. Also, the Dodgers would play in a division that is more competitive than the one they usually do, with Houston and Oakland. They might not be willing to risk experimenting with a largely MLB unproven player like Rios getting lots of time in the DH role. In a short season, it may be more like a sprint than a marathon. The Dodgers might want to have experienced hands on deck to insure a good berth in the expanded playoffs.
Interesting! Thank you. Also Looking forward to more on Frank Pastore, if you’re still interested.
https://www.prageru.com/presenter/frank-pastore/
Questions
1) What would a thirty man roster do to the Salary Cap?
2) What would a forty man roster for the taxi squad do to the rules for moving players on or off the taxi squad?
3) What would trade rules be before the season begins and when would the deadline for making trades come to an end?
Although I have some vague ideas, I would much prefer to have the wise women and men on the site (all of you) share your ideas.
Can’t imagine that this won’t help the Dodgers now and ahead but I don’t think should the team should worry about winning the league or division unless there is a distinct advantage (playing in Dodger Stadium vs. playing at a generic field(s) for all games. Pitching will ultimately decide who wins this year and Dodgers need to assure that they have the best starters possible and two closers.
Denny, I am not sure how the competitive balance tax threshold will be impacted with a 30 man roster. We still do not know how the salaries will be configured. To my knowledge there is no discussion as to whether the CBT threshold will be adjusted on a prorated basis commensurate with the salary structure. I am sure these are fine tuning items that will need to be meted out. I would hope that both sides would agree to forego the CBT this year. Everything that was in place after 2019 (like Boston being over the threshold for two consecutive years).
It is difficult to determine how a taxi squad would work. Is the 30 man roster the permanent roster? Can a starting pitcher be moved after a start, and a taxi squad pitcher replace the starter until his next start? Can LH batters (or RH batters) be moved from the taxi squad for one game. One game replacement for a doubleheader? I would think that a 30 man roster would be fine, but the option rules and time spent on the taxi squad should equate to prior years’ time required in MiLB before being allowed to be recalled unless there is an injury.
I beleive there will be a trade deadline. Will it be September 1? September 15? I think we need to see when the end of the season is configured. Make the deadline 30 games before the end of the season. With the increased number of playoff teams, there may be less interest in trading. We can all remember the false sense that SFG got last July believing they could be a playoff team and held on to MadBum and Will Smith.
1. There is no salary cap… just the luxury tax and if they are only paid for a half-season they would not go over it, unless they pro-rated it. As such, the minor leaguers that would be included would not add much to the cost.
2. No idea, but I think the 40-man roster stays.
3. No idea, but I would think a traded deadline about 2/3 of the season would be logical.
There is so much that we don’t know and can’t prepare for…
I paid for a whole season and spring training games on MLBTV. Has anyone heard if they are going to give a refund on the shortened season, if there is one, or a credit into next year? Just curious. I am hoping and praying for baseball to be played. Even though I do not like the DH for the National League, it may be good for the teams in a shortened season.
My guess is no refund. Several times a week I login and watch MiLB and MLB TV games. I am really enjoying watching 2019 games that I did not see previously. I assume others are doing the same thing and therefore plenty of entertainment value still being provided.
Archived MLB TV games are free right now. If you are not a previous subscriber all you have to do is create an account and you can watch any archived game you want. Not sure about MiLB.
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I’m thinking that since all current contracts were negotiated based on revenues from a full season and fans in the seats that players should be willing to take a pay cut in addition to what they have already agreed to pertaining to games played.
Maybe MLB should self-insure contracts instead of resorting to Lloyds of London. Take some or all of the revenue sharing money and put it toward self-insurance. That way if a $25M a year player can’t play, a team would not be burdened with that contract. It would also keep teams from keeping the revenue sharing money instead of putting it toward payrolls.
Moving on to lineups, I like the idea of of the Dodgers keeping a righty bat as the DH and not platoon the DH.
Betts
Muncy
Turner
Bellinger
Pollock DH
Pederson
Smith
Seager
Lux
I’m guessing that Muncy and Seager will fight for that#2 spot and it could go either way.