Multiple sources have indicated that a plan for a proposed 2020 MLB season is due to be presented to the MLBPA in the “next week or so”. Former MLB infielder from Crespi High School in Encino, CA, Trevor Plouffe, in a tweet, has indicated that his sources are pointing to a report date of June 10, and a season start date “around”, July 1. This date is congruent with Ken Rosenthal’s and Jeff Passan’s sources. Rosenthal is citing his sources being the Cleveland Indians who have been “told” to get ready to get ready. Nothing is concrete, and the plans remain extremely fluid.
There are health, logistical, and financial obstacles that all need to be worked out. Commissioner Rob Manfred is on record with health being the primary consideration. MLB recognizes what a personal tragedy it would be if MLB resumes and players get ill from COVID-19. Are the players’ to be self-quarantined, or will medical experts call for a cessation of play? While the players’ health is paramount, Manfred and MLB also recognize that MLB cannot afford the negativity of starting and stopping.
Will the medical experts be satisfied that baseball can be played in the home stadiums of the 30 MLB teams, with no fans, and other restrictions entirely created for the players’ safety? Will there be mound visits? What happens if the pitcher and catcher are not on the same page? If the manager wants to make a pitching change, does he do it from the dugout? What happens with holding runners on 1st. The catcher and batter will not be 6 feet apart. Will balls and strikes be called electronically? Sliding into bases with the defensive player ready to make a play? Healthy young professional athletes are not on the high risk (or low risk) list. The players do not feel imperiled, but some do have concerns that they will carry the virus with them and may make someone else sick.
Also to be considered is what happens to those players who have underlying health considerations like diabetes, asthma, and other respiratory concerns. Will they feel comfortable with medical experts’ opinions as to how the risks can be minimized? If the players do not feel safe, can they opt out? If they opt out, how will their salaries be impacted? I would guess that the MLBPA will argue that this should be treated as would an injury. The player could be placed on the 60 day DL and their salaries and benefits would continue unburdened. I cannot see the MLBPA backing off that position.
Logistically, the apparent favored plan is re-configuring MLB into three 10 team divisions geographically. Per Ross Stripling in his podcast interview by The Athletic’s Pedro Moura and Andy McCullough (The Scribes of Summer), he believes the players are comfortable with travel since all teams fly private so they will not need to deal with airports, and with limited occupancy in hotels, the players will feel safe. Playing nine other teams in a division, the belief is there will be enough different teams that a season could be played without seeing the same team too many times. The players also believe that between 80-100 games will give a season enough games for the best teams to rise to the top. The three divisions will be West, Central, and East. The ten teams in the West will be comprised of the teams in the current NL West and AL West. The Central and the East Division will be configured similarly except that Atlanta will move to the Central, while Pittsburgh will move to the East.
| West | Central | East |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees |
| Los Angeles Angels | Chicago White Sox | New York Mets |
| San Francisco Giants | Milwaukee Brewers | Boston Red Sox |
| Oakland A’s | St. Louis Cardinals | Baltimore Orioles |
| San Diego Padres | Kansas City Royals | Washington Nationals |
| Colorado Rockies | Cincinnati Reds | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Cleveland Indians | Toronto Blue Jays |
| Houston Astros | Minnesota Twins | Tampa Bay Rays |
| Texas Rangers | Detroit Tigers | Miami Marlins |
| Seattle Mariners | Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates |
Perhaps the biggest hurdle to be negotiated will be how will the revenues be split and the resultant salary adjustments. Ross Stripling believes that both sides want this too much and that billionaires can come to terms with millionaires to get this season started.
MLB appears to want to make this happen, and have worked quickly to revise a pay structure plan with the umpires for 2020. Per ESPN:
“The umps will be paid a pro-rated share of their salaries based on games worked over a 182-day season, a source confirmed to ESPN. Umpires have already been paid from January through April and will be paid at a 50% rate in May, according to the AP, which first reported on details of the agreed-upon pay structure for 2020.”
“If even one regular-season game is played this season, the umps are guaranteed about one-third of their salaries. Umpires generally make between $150,000 and $450,000 a year.”
In addition to the salary and per diem reductions, MLB has the right NOT TO USE instant replays. Will they take advantage of that right.
In future posts, I am going to look at the pitching staffs and position players for each of the teams in the West and potential playoff teams in the Central and East. The Dodgers will be challenged by at least the Astros and their stars; Verlander, Greinke, Bregman, Springer, Correa… The A’s have had back to back 97 win game seasons, and have some young stars on the bump and on the field, and are anticipating a resurgence from powerful Khris Davis. The two AL West stalwarts figure to give the Dodgers their biggest challenge.
In my opinion, MLB, MLBPA, Umpires Association, and the fans all want to see Baseball, even in an abbreviated form, and a strange format. Baseball could represent an initial return to normalcy that I think many of us want to see.
Some of you will shelter in until there is a vaccine. Some of you will defy the shelter in requirements. Some of you will go to stadiums that open even if California chooses not to. Count me in that group.
Lot to work out,let’s see what the final plan looks like.
There it is again! Is it a misprint? Right next to each other it says Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels. But I drove past both stadiums, it was almost a 2.5 hr drive from the Angels ballpark to Dodger Stadium! The Angeles play in Anaheim which is in a whole different county than LA! Can you say
” Oakland Athletics of San Francisco”?
I have already decided that if asked, I will not play since I am in the category where 80% of the deaths have occurred.
No how – no way!
The plan is wrought with problems and I am sure that if players want to opt-out they will be allowed. We don’t yet know if it will come about or not, but it is interesting.
I really have no opinion about whether it will come about or not. There are lots of issues. However, a lot can happen in a month, including a cure or vaccine. Many scientists are working around the clock. I have a strong feeling it will happen sooner than later. I am just worried that we have blown everything up so bad we are headed to a depression… recession is a given! That may wreck more lives than the virus. Who knows?
On the baseball side, it will be fun to watch the Dodgers play the Astros this year (if they play). Maybe is we all collectively yell CHEATERS in unison, they will hear us!
Let’s playDodger baseball even in an abbreviated season. Hope this state I live in (which is Calif.), is allowed to play in their own stadiums, but if not where? AC, thank you for the great explanation of what may be the plan to divide the teams into 3 divisions and looking forward to your breakdown of pitching and position players. I do not like the Astros in our division, but will live with it as it is a temporary (I hope), situation.
I’d like to know how they’re going to get 30 players plus coaching and training staff into the dugout at anywhere near social distancing.
The psychological desire (of both players and fans) to play games and the revenue derived from that will probably insure the season starts at some point.
Finishing that season without interruption is another problem altogether.
There was talk previously of the teams siting in the stands rather than the dugout. Also look to the KBO and Taipei leagues for how MLB could handle things (note ESPN2 is currently covering the KBO).
Not sure if MLB can replicate what the KBO and Taipei are doing ( due to severe lack of testing) but it does provide insight as to how games could be played).
So great to be talking about actually playing games. Thank you for keeping this blog alive along with our hopes for baseball in the near future.
Count me among the group that will not shelter in!
Attn: SoCalBum
I haven’t seen a post from you in a long while. That is not like you. I hope all is well with you and your family.
I do not post often. I enjoy reading the articles and posts from such knowledgeable Dodgers fans. I’d like to thank Jeff again for keeping this site alive and I hope, like the rest of you, that we somehow get to see the Dodgers playing baseball this year.
LA mayor Eric Garcetti announced in mid-April that no large public gatherings, including baseball games, will be allowed in LA until there’s an effective vaccine. He said no public sporting events until 2021.
I’ve assumed that the Dodgers won’t be playing at Dodger Stadium at all this year.
“Nothing is concrete”
Yeah it is. The overshoes of this plan are concrete. Go ahead, put them on and jump in the water.
“ However, a lot can happen in a month, including a cure or vaccine. ”
In a month? You’re dreaming.
Keith Law this morning on the 5 Round Draft Plan:
“On the whole this plan helps the owners and nobody else”.
Now there’s a surprise. It’s how it goes, yesterday, today and tomorrow. Expect no give from those at the top.
I haven’t seen anything to change the opinion I’ve held for months. We are handling this like a nation of dunderheads. As Rick just said, I assume Dodgers won’t be playing at Dodger Stadium all year.
Carry on.
A lot can happen in a month. The year I was born Jonas Salk started working on a polio vaccine and it took him two and a half years to develop it. The electron microscope was invented in the 1930s but it was not until the early 2000s that scanning electron microscopes were commercialized and the advancements in brightness, tilting, and resolution were astounding.
Laboratory procedures and equipment have advanced a hundredfold since Salk’s research. I happen to know some researchers who are very close to a vaccine, and they say that other scientific groups around the world are also close. I see no reason why a vaccine will not be developed sooner than later. One of the main verticals in our business is supplying equipment for producing laboratory-grade water and we talk to researchers every day. They are working 16 hour days researching this. I remain very hopeful.
I have no opinion as to whether they can play baseball this year and I believe that football and basketball are even more problematic. It’s very sad that so many people are dying, but history may tell us that more people died from the quarantine than died from the disease. I don’t know if most of us on this board are really affected financially. My business is booming because of the lab water and other things, but I know plenty of people who are destitute and have lost just about everything.
My oldest son from NYC moved in with us and while he makes good money in the film business, his $3500 a month rent went on and his union canceled his insurance. After 10 weeks since filing for unemployment, he still has not heard a thing and he makes too much to get any stimulus money. Lots of small business owners have lost or are in the process of losing it all. What is going to be the cost of that? Is the cure worse than the disease?
I am not saying what is right or wrong about what is happening, but I will say that anyone who thinks the answers are clear-cut is a moron! For many on this board, the quarantine is an inconvenience. You may feel little financial impact. For others, their lives are ruined. It’s up to each of us to try and help them. We all know the government has never ben able to do that!
In an effort to understand what it is you are saying here Mark I would ask you to please explain how more people may be dying from the quarantine than from the disease. Everything I’ve read says the exact opposite.
Also, everything I’ve read about vaccines says they take months to years to develop, and even more time to test. To date there is no cure and many of the suggested drugs and alternative methods of treatment (like injecting light or disinfectant into our bodies) haven’t proven to be viable or are frankly excerpts from the book of the bizarre.
I agree with you that our government, as it is currently constructed, is not able to help. I’ve seen several articles suggesting the coronavirus outbreak is showing how capitalism is failing. Shall I post a few of the articles, or is that too political?
I look forward to having this behind us. Yes, a lot can happen in a month, but, at the risk of sounding negative, with several states “opening up”, over the next 30 days I only see things getting worse.
July 1st MLB baseball? Really? I don’t think so.
https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/the-implications-of-covid-19-for-mental-health-and-substance-use/
https://www.kcci.com/article/suicide-and-domestic-abuse-reynolds-says-downside-of-shelter-in-place-is-mental-health/32036447#
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/16/coronavirus-roundup-suicide-rate-soaring-da-investigation-nursing-home-deaths/
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/covid-19-implications-for-business
https://joinhomebase.com/blog/real-time-covid-19-data/‘
https://www.bdo.com/resource-centers/crisis-response-resource-center
That’s just the tip of the iceberg. I just do not think the solution is clear. That’s why I said that history will be the judge. We have never seen anything like this and business failures will lead to loss of homes, families, jobs, and lives.
Society is going to pay a huge price either way.
Thank you, Jeff, for keeping this blog going! Today’s post provided the only good news I’ve seen in the past 2 months! I’m trying not to get ahead of myself, but if the rumors are accurate, we may get an island of normalcy – dare I say it, of happiness – in a crazy time. I don’t care if they’re playing in empty stadiums. I don’t even care if we are in the same division as the Astericks. Baseball again would be awesome!