Much has been said and written about the Dodgers depth and how that makes them a very dangerous team. I do not think that there is a question (at least not for me), that the premier builder of the 40 man roster is Andrew Friedman. During his tenure, over the last five years in a 162 game season, the Dodgers have 485 wins, more than any other team in MLB. That is an amazing average of 97 wins per season. 10 teams have not won 90 games in any of the past five seasons, and nine others have done it one time. Only the Dodgers have won at least 90 games in each of the past five seasons.
On the strength of their cheating and three 100 win seasons, the Astros have 481 wins.
The Dodgers and Astros are followed by:
- Cubs 471
- NYY 465
- Cleveland 461
- Boston 456
- Nationals 450
- Cardinals 448
- Rays 414
- Brewers 412
- NYM 410
Those 11 teams comprise the only teams of the 30 that make up MLB that are averaging 82 wins or break-even over the past five years.
Besides the Astros, LAD and NYY have multiple 100 win seasons (2 each), while the Cubs, Cleveland, Boston, St. Louis, and Minnesota have one each.
Of the teams with the most wins over the past five seasons, the most surprising for me is the Tampa Bay Rays (#9 with 414). With arguably the best farm system in MLB, the Rays are poised to continue to be more than competitive. Will that be enough to take on juggernauts like NYY and Boston in the NL East? With Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Charlie Morton, they have the nucleus of a very good rotation, and perhaps no team has done better with less in their bullpen. Brent Honeywell and Brendan McKay are on the cusp of joining that rotation. Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, and Joe Ryan not far behind. I am most interested in watching the development of McClanahan (age 23), as I know he was high on a lot of draft boards, and was available when the Dodgers selected JT Ginn with the #30 overall pick in 2018. McClanahan went #31. Of note, former LAD prospect Nico Hulsizer is #27 on the Rays deep top 30 prospects. Some will remember, LAD traded Nico to Tampa for Loogy Adam Kolarek. As a fan of MiLB, one cannot ignore what Tampa Bay has done with strategic drafts and trades. How else can you trade future fixture in the rotation like Adam Liberatore, for a big hitter like Jose Martinez, OF Randy Arozarena, and Competitive Balance pick for 2020.
The NL worst over the last five years is Cincinnati with 342 wins, with the MLB worst being Detroit with 335 wins. That is 150 wins (30/season) less than LAD.
Even with what the Dodgers have accomplished over the past five years, and their resulting low draft pick position, they are still considered to have one of the very best farm systems in MLB. One of the premier baseball publications, Baseball America, rates them #3 behind Tampa Bay and San Diego. Besides the already deep MLB roster, four more rookies figure to be staples in the organization in 2020 and beyond; Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Brusdar Graterol. Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray could also make their debuts in 2020. As a Dodgers fan, one has to be extremely excited with the next five years (at least).
How many teams can use pitchers like Ross Stripling and Caleb Ferguson in their rotation, and yet the best they can do with LAD is sit and wait and wait and wait. Neither figures to get a legit shot at the rotation without injuries or multiple injuries. With the significant improvement in his changeup, Ross Stripling could be at least a #3 for a majority of teams. If Wood and or Price falter, does Strip get the call over May or Gonsolin?
I know the anti AF crowd always likes to bring up that AF inherited a great team, and should not be given as much credit. From the 2014 team that he inherited, only Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Kenley Jansen, and Pedro Baez remain. Admittedly, Kershaw is a great start to build a team, but #22 has not been the same dominating pitcher he was from 2011-2014. JT and KJ have been huge mainstays, while Joc and Petey have had their moments and their not so good moments.
Also on the 2014 team; Adrian Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Dee Gordon, Yasiel Puig, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dan Haren. That represents a good team, but one with a lot of holes. Let’s re-examine the catcher corps; AJ Ellis, Drew Butera, Tim Federowicz, and Miguel Olivo. AF realized that he needed to improve catching and has done so. Or the bullpen of Brian Wilson, Jamey Wright, Brandon League, Paul Maholm, Paco Rodriguez, Chris Withrow, Kevin Correia, or Carlos Frias. He has been toying with the bullpen ever since. Bench? Erisbel Arruebarrena, Alex Guerrero, Darwin Barney, Juan Uribe, Scott Van Slyke, Miguel Rojas, Jamie Romak. Farm? Some outstanding prospects at the top of the list in Corey Seager, Julio Urias, and Joc Pederson. Cody Bellinger was #20, while Alex Verdugo was #9. Other top ten? Grant Holmes Chris Anderson, Zach Lee, Chris Reed, Scott Schebler, and Jose De Leon. Other 11-20? Darnell Sweeney, Zachary Bird, Joe Wieland, Julian Leon, Yimi Garcia, Austin Barnes, and Kyle Farmer. There are some good prospects that have reached MLB, but some who should never have been on any top prospect list. I let each of you make those determinations.
I am not sure that there is much comparison between the organization that AF inherited into what he built going into the 2020 season.
While it is not arguable as to what AF has accomplished building a team for a 162 game season, he has not yet been able to push this team past the finish line into a downtown LA parade, and it took a cheating Houston franchise to take that away. I think it is clear that if there is a 2020 season, it will be abbreviated; probably either 80 or 100 games. It will also be a deviation from the normal NL/AL with West/Central/East Divisions of 5 teams each. Does an abbreviated season favor a team built to withstand the long hot baseball summers or a mad dash to the finish line? Especially one the potentially will involve more playoff teams who only have to get hot at the right time.
IMO, the shorter the schedule and the greater number of playoff teams, the capacity for a deep team to dominate diminishes. The Dodgers without their depth are still an extremely strong team, but one that could be overtaken by a team with a solid three man rotation in a short series. It will be hard to find a better offense than a team comprised of three solid MVP candidates with Belli, Mookie, and Seager, a ROY candidate in Lux, big bats of Muncy, JT, and Joc, a top defensive catcher with a potential bat in Smith, and a bench of Kike’, CT3, Pollock, Barnes, and Beaty/Rios/McKinstry. But as we have learned, teams with big pitching can shut down big offenses in a short series. So while I have no doubt that the Dodgers pitching and offense can win more games than any other team (non-cheating) in a long season, I am not as confident that other teams cannot get hot and beat LAD in a shortened season, especially in a short series.
With the proposed 2020 configuration, a universal DH will be in play. Will this be a plus for the Dodgers. The Dodgers could certainly do what Doc seems to like to do best…platoon the DH. If there really is going to be a 2020 season, the season will be different. But will it be an advantage or disadvantage for this very special and well-built team?
At first, I thought that the Dodgers’ depth advantages would be less important in a short season, but thinking about it more, I’m not so sure.
The season will have more doubleheaders and more games in fewer days. The teams will allegedly carry up to 30 players. More pitchers will be required and the Dodgers have as many as 9 starters (Kershaw, Buelher, Price, Urias, Wood, May, Stripling, Gonsolin, and Nelson).
Fatigue could also be a factor with more games in fewer days and so the numerous Dodgers that play multiple positions as well as positional depth in the minors also auger well for them.
In short, the Dodgers should still be postured to win more games than any other team.
Whether the starting pitching is good enough to dominate in the post-season is another subject.
Fyi-See auger vs augur.
The number one rule change that would benefit the Dodgers in the probable, but not guaranteed, shortened season would be to eliminate the three hitter rule for pitchers. While the Dodgers do not have the top three or four man starting rotation in the majors or the top bullpen in baseball either, they do possess the greatest depth in both categories. This would be made even more advantageous if relievers could be used to face a single hitter rather than a minimum of three as it is set currently. The Dodgers have both LH and RH reliever options for almost all possible matchups and could carry 16 or 17 pitchers on a 30 man roster in a compressed, shortened postseason. A 13 or 14 man line-up and bench roster would be more than enough to survive any short post-season series.
The Dodgers are going to have to decide if they can or should pursue a starter or 2nd closer for the postseason. I expect the cost to acquire either will be extremely high and probably not the wise thing to do but I also believe that difficult times call for difficult choices which may be rewarded. Could be a situation with short term gain and long term loss.
Good article AC. Thank you. I felt that last year, the Dodgers could field two major league teams with all the talent they had. AF did a good job by building most of the roster. I really hope Wood, Ferguson and Stripling play an important part of their success this year if the season is played, not wishing any injuries on anyone though.
Many good points you make, AC. AF has done a fantastic job here with the farm as he did when he was in Tampa Bay. Our depth has no equal. With a DH configuration put in place, it has to enhance the Dodger chances as we are a HR powerhouse and Joc’s place will be assured there for this disfigured season, IF it takes place. I cannot see it going forward without some major glitches that will threaten it like players getting Covid, team isolation, etc. Too many variables against it, but we’ll see. Some would chalk it up to herd immunity as players are young and generally healthy.
Just fun to be thinking Dodger baseball right now!
Go Baseball! Go Dodgers!
Not only will our depth be a benefit, I also think if MLB decides to go with a DH for both leagues, it will benefit the Dodgers a lot. Good article, as always.
From Jeff Passan (and wow there would be TONS of talent that become free agents)
The 2020 Major League Baseball draft will be five rounds, sources tell
@kileymcd
and me. All players who go undrafted would be eligible to sign for a maximum of $20,000. While there was a proposal to the union for a 10-round draft, the sides didn’t come to an agreement.
Manfred will really have to police that 20K limit for undrafted players. That could lead to a lot of rule bending.
This will also lead to a huge pool of guys eligible for next year’s draft which will definitely hurt guys who would have been in the second half of that draft and could fall quite a few rounds next year or go totally undrafted.
Why would MLB only have five rounds in the draft? It seems the talent is still out there.
It’s all about saving the $$$$$