While I favor LAD farmhands and follow them closely, I am a fan of MiLB baseball period. I scour through the top publications to see what prospects the Dodgers might have some interest in, or in my opinion should have interest in. The top three baseball publications have all reported their top 100 prospects and the Dodgers are prominent in all three. Their least representative publication is MLB Pipeline (MLB) where they have five top 100 prospects:
Gavin Lux (2)
Dustin May (23)
Keibert Ruiz (73)
Josiah Gray (67)
Brusdar Graterol (83)
They have seven each in Baseball America (BA) (Top 100) and Baseball Prospectus (BP) (Top 101).
Baseball America (BA):
Gavin Lux (4)
Dustin May (20)
Brusdar Graterol (60)
Keibert Ruiz (81)
Tony Gonsolin (82)
Josiah Gray (84)
Diego Cartaya (97)
Baseball Prospectus (BP):
Gavin Lux (3)
Dustin May (8)
Brusdar Graterol (32)
Josiah Gray (61)
Miguel Vargas (65)
Keibert Ruiz (79)
Tony Gonsolin (81)
Lux, May, Graterol, Ruiz, and Gray were consensus top 100 picks, while Gonsolin was included on two, and Cartaya and Vargas one each. It is interesting to note (at least for me) that Jeter Downs was rated as high as #44 by MLB Pipeline, but was not included in the Top 101 of Baseball Prospectus. For the record, Downs was rated #86 by Baseball America. Thus, except for MLB, the other two publications have graded the Dodgers prospect list better with the addition of Brusdar Graterol over Jeter Downs. It is also nice to see a couple of the younger prospects, Miguel Vargas and Diego Cartaya, getting some pub.
Teamwise, Tampa Bay had as many as eight top 100 picks from Baseball America, but had five consensus picks, including the overwhelmingly top prospect in all three publications…Wander Franco (SS).
Their five consensus picks include:
Wander Franco (SS) – Highest Rating 1
Brendan McKay (LHP/DH) – Highest Rating 14
Shane Baz (RHP) – Highest Rating 30
Vidal Brujan (2B) – Highest Rating 45
Xavier Edwards (SS) – Highest Rating 72
The NL West team pushing the Dodgers in the number of top prospects is the San Diego Padres. The Pads have five consensus Top 80 picks:
MacKenzie Gore (LHP) Consensus #1 pitching prospect – Highest Rating 5
Luis Patino (RHP) – Highest Rating 15
CJ Abrams (SS) – Highest Rating 22
Luis Campusano (C) – Highest Rating 50
Taylor Trammel (OF) – Highest Rating 57
The only other team with five consensus top 100 prospects is the Miami Marlins, including:
Sixto Sanchez (RHP) – Highest Rating 16
JJ Bleday (OF) – Highest Rating 28
Jazz Chisholm (SS) – Highest Rating 52
Jesus Sanchez (OF) – Highest Rating 58
Edward Cabrera (RHP) – Highest Rating 68
Perhaps the team that has the most elite prospects ready for MLB sooner than later is the Chicago White Sox with four consensus top 50 prospects:
Luis Robert (OF) – Consensus Top 6 – Highest Rating 2; Lowest Rating 6
Nick Madrigal (2B) – Highest Rating 13; Lowest Rating 48
Andrew Vaughn (1B) – Highest Rating 16; Lowest Rating 31
Michael Kopech (RHP) – Highest Rating 20; Lowest Rating 33
Only Andrew Vaughn is not expected to make his MLB debut this season, and his ETA is 2021.
Seattle and Detroit are the next top heavy prospect laden teams with four consensus top 80 picks .
Seattle:
Jarred Kelenic (OF) – Highest Rating 7; Lowest Rating 11
Julio Rodriguez (OF) – Highest Rating 8; Lowest Rating 18
Logan Gilbert (RHP) – Highest Rating 38
Evan White (1B) – Highest Rating 54
Detroit:
Casey Mize (RHP) – Highest Rating 7; Lowest Rating 13
Matt Manning (RHP) – Highest Rating 17
Riley Greene (OF) – Highest Rating 31
Tarik Skubal (LHP) – Highest Rating 34
Besides San Diego, both Arizona and San Francisco have multiple consensus top 100 picks. Arizona has four while San Francisco has three. While San Francisco has one less, they have more higher rated players. San Francisco has a pair of top 35 prospects, while Arizona does not have any consensus top 50.
Arizona:
Khristian Robinson (OF) – Highest Rating 16; Lowest Rating 74
Alek Thomas (OF) – Highest Rating 49; Lowest Rating 87
Daulton Varsho (C) – Highest Rating 53
Geraldo Perdomo (SS/2B) – Highest Rating 72
SF:
Joey Bart (C) – Highest Rating 14; Lowest Rating 32
Marco Luciano (SS) – Highest Rating 14; Lowest Rating 35
Heliot Ramos (OF) – Highest Rating 34; Lowest Rating 65
SF also has a fourth player that was included on two top prospect publications (MLB and Baseball Prospectus), but not on Baseball America; Hunter Bishop (OF) (#68 BP and #71 MLB).
The fifth NL West team is not represented very well at all. Only SS Brendan Rogers was named to all three publications. Brendan should stick with the MLB team this year, and should battle with Garrett Hampson for the 2B job. No other Rockies prospect was named to any of the three publications.
Milwaukee did not have one player named to any of the three publications. Teams with one consensus top 100 prospects include:
Cincinnati (Nick Lodolo – LHP)
Washington (Carter Kieboom – SS)
Houston (Forrest Whitley – RHP) – and falling like a rock. Couldn’t happen to a worse team.
Kieboom and Whitley are projected to become regulars in 2020, while Lodolo is projected to debut in 2021. What is surprising is that Cincinnati RHP Hunter Greene was not named on the Baseball Prospectus list.
All of the other teams have two or three consensus top prospects.
Each of the projected top six prospects were listed as top six in each of the publications.
Wander Franco – Tampa Bay SS – #1 (MLB); #1 (BA); #1 BP
Gavin Lux – LAD SS/2B – #2 (MLB); #4 (BA); #3 (BP)
Luis Robert – ChiSox OF – #3 (MLB); #2 (BA); #6 (BP)
Adley Rutschman – O’s C – #4 (MLB); #5 (BA); #4 (BP)
MacKenzie Gore – SDP LHP – #5 (MLB); #6 (BA); #5 (BP)
Jo Adell – LAA OF – #6 (MLB); #3 (BA); #2 (BP)
Other top ten prospects to watch this year are:
Toronto RHP – Nate Pearson (2 publications)
Seattle OF – Julio Rodriguez (2 publications)
Oakland LHP – Jesus Luzardo (2 publications)
Seattle OF – Jarred Kelenic (1 publication)
Detroit RHP – Casey Mize (1 publication)
LAD RHP – Dustin May (1 publication)
Twins SS – Royce Lewis (1 publication)
Cardinals OF – Dylan Carlson (1 publication)
KC SS – Bobby Witt Jr. (1 publication)
One prominent comment made regarding the potential 26 man roster is the lack of an elite LHRP. Some want to see Julio Urias move to the pen as he excelled their at times last year. But he is a SP and that is going to be where he stays unless he falters, which I do not expect. Alex Wood would not have re-signed with LAD had they not strongly hinted that he would be in the rotation, at least at the start of the year. It will be up to him to stay there. That leaves Scott Alexander, Caleb Ferguson, Loogy Adam Kolarek, and Victor Gonzalez as the other LHRP on the 40 man to choose from. Of course my long time favorite is Ferguson, and depending what happens with Urias and Wood, Ferguson should make the roster.
The MiLB rosters are not close to being set, but I looked for the potential LHP for the future if not this year. OKC has two LHP on their current roster; Reymin Guduan and Kyle Lobstein. Tulsa has four; Michael Boyle, Leo Crawford, Ben Holmes, and Logan Salow. Of that group, Logan Salow looks to be the most prominent, but I am holding out hope for Guduan.
Rancho LHP – Austin Drury, Austin Hamilton, Connor Mitchell, Darrien Nunez, and John Rooney.
Great Lakes LHP – Jeff Belge and Justin Bruihl
Ogden LHP – Jacob Cantleberry, Nelfri Contreras, Franklin De La Paz, Antonio Hernandez, and Mitchell Tyranski.
AZL LHP – Gabe Benevides, Alec Gamboa, Francisco Martinez, Robinson Ortiz, Bryan Warzek, Igor Avila, Jose Hernandez, Jordan Martinson, Sean Mellen, Julian Smith.
Much of the potential LHRP is located in the lower levels of MiLB. So where can the Dodgers pick someone up. Last year FanGraphs listed all of their relief pitchers with their respective fWAR rating. 59 relievers were graded with a .9 WAR or greater. Of that list, eight were LHRP:
Taylor Rogers – Twins (#5)
Aroldis Chapman – NYY (#9)
Brad Hand – Cleveland (#14)
Aaron Bummer – ChiSox (#23)
Will Smith – Braves (#31)
Andrew Chafin – DBacks (#40)
Jake Diekman – A’s (#43)
Zack Britton – NYY (#58)
Only Will Smith changed teams from last year. ChiSox believe they can contend this year and Bummer is set in their plans. They are looking for relievers, not trying to eliminate them, so Bummer is not going anywhere without an extreme overpay at the deadline. Brad Hand may become available at the deadline, but he seems to be regressing a bit, and we are going to need to see how well he pitches through June and to see where Cleveland sits in the standings before anyone can project if he will be available. But he is a possibility (depending on how he pitches). Rogers, Chapman, and Smith are not getting moved. I cannot see AF being enamored enough with Chafin or Diekman to inquire. I cannot see NYY trading Britton, but I do know that AF has been interested in him for quite some time.
The dearth of LHRP is not just an issue with LAD, it seems to be an industry wide concern. If AF cannot find one, it is more probable that one is not available. AF is not going to go out and acquire, Betts, Price, and Graterol to not back that up with a top LHRP at the deadline if one is there. AF sees 2020 as the year. He may just be right this year…Just as he was in 2017.
Scott Alexander has already thrown a bullpen and is 100% healthy. That is good news for the start of spring training.
SoCal dont know if u can answer this but Dustin May said he worked all offseason on his pitches, can we assume he worked with driveline or could it have been just with dodgers pitching coaches, weird question I know but from all the talk about how great driveline is I was just curious?
Joe – I listened to him being interviewed by Alanna Rizzo and the way I understand it, he was at Glendale working out with the Dodger pitching coach staff. It appears that a lot of the youngsters spent much of the offseason in Glendale.
Of course, the Dodgers have Rob Hill, a Driveline instructor working for them. Maybe he’s been in Glendale too.
Thank you brother appreciate it
Short answer, I don’t know. Could be driveline, Dodgers coaches, another Dodgers pitcher, a pitching coach he has used over the years or just a friend who is a catcher.
Thank u so much SoCal
A lot of websites and blogs are assuming that Adam Kolarek will be one of the Dodgers’ LH options out of the pen. I think that is a presumptuous assumption.
Jamey Wright has re-joined the Dodgers’ organization as a Special Assistant to pitchers. This is yet another move to facilitate player development.
I think Kolarek has to win a spot in the bullpen in spring training, showing the team he can consistently get right handed hitters out. Even though he is 31, he still has 2 minor league options, same with Alexander and Ferguson.
Of course, the Dodger added Mark Prior as Pitching Coach, Josh Bard as Bullpen Coach, Rob Hill from Driveline Baseball, but this guy could be just as important:
https://dodgers.mlblogs.com/the-pitching-coach-with-the-it-factor-443cb4d78664
The Dodger’s Organization believes that pitchers like Jansen, Wood, Treinan, Kelly, Nelson, and Kershaw can re-capture their magic. Will it work or do the Dodgers just like to waste money? We don’t know the answer, but we do know they are trying.
Is the need for a lefty reliever diminished this year with the 3 batter minimum. Say A guy like Kolarek gets Soto out then gives up two bombs to the next 2 right handed hitters? I’m sure managers will be staggering their lineups this year between lefties and righties to take advantage of this rule
Great article AC. I’m happy to let you do the hours of research and then post it here in an easy to read format.
I’ve always been a Hand fan but I also noticed that he isn’t quite what he used to be.
Here’s something to think about for a future article – RHRP who have good numbers against left handed batters. As long as a reliever can get out left handed batters on a regular basis , I couldn’t care less which hand he throws with.
Singing The Blue
That’s what I was talking about the whole offseason. Building a bullpen that could function properly under the new 3 batter minimum rule. Every reliever that I brought up that I wanted the Dodgers to try to get were relievers that according to their stats were strong against both righthanded and lefthanded batters.
In my opinion under the new 3 batter minimum rule being a lefty or a righty doesn’t matter anymore.
I remember your comments Eric but I don’t remember any specific names you mentioned. Were there any?
I agree that the new rule will definitely lead to some changes in bullpen composition.
Good to hear Alexander is 100%. I posted two days ago that I doubted his early availability because of last seasons surgery and thought the Dodgers would “slow play” his spring. Having said that I think Kolarek and Ferguson offer much more by way of being the LHRP’s the Dodgers might need out of the pen.
Alexander hasn’t shown me much, but then again perhaps his arm ailment kept him from realizing his full potential last year. He’ll need to stay in the strike zone with more consistency as it seems he was all over the place and he’ll need to get ground ball outs. If he is indeed 100% effective the BP decisions are going to be tough to sort out for Doc and Mark Prior. A good problem to have.
Good column AC.
There is a group of Dodgers prospects who live in Glendale in order to work out at Dodger Stadium. Some of the top prospects who have already reached the Majors (like May) also have stayed in the off season to work on improving. The LA Times had a story on what it takes to survive on a minor league salary, the sacrifices players make in pursuit of the major league dream. Dodger staff is involved in the workouts and I’m guessing that includes Rob Hill who lives in Whittier, a short distance from Dodger Stadium. If I recall correctly, a couple of Dodgers pitchers have mentioned working with Hill this off-season along with other pitching coaches.
Amazing just how good the Dodgers minor league system has become. Not only do they draft well, but they now seem to have turned the corner on the international level. The player development system is first class. Now all they need to do is increase pay for minor leagues, following the lead of Toronto.
My son Ben Holmes is one those players in the Dodgers minor league system that has called Glendale home over the past off season. He is there to do just what you’re taking about, trying to get better by taking advantage of the facilities and personnel available. Thank you Dodgers for everything you do for my son!
Hey Mark, not sure if you knew, but the 2021 NBA All Star weekend will be in Indi. I went 2 years ago when the event was in LA, and it’s a lot of fun.
I know. We have season tix so we get a shot at tickets.
I enjoyed your article, AC, talking about all the rankings of MLB prospects. I know these are not highly rated prospects, at least not now, but can you tell me what teams the following players will probably be on this year? They are: Logan Boyer, Jack Little, Braidyn Fink, and Zack McAllister. Thanks for your input on this.
Well, I am not a fan of the work of Scott Alexander. His good year or so with the Royals are a while ago, and he’s been notably ineffective since he’s been here. Ferguson seems like a much better potential pitcher, he seemed to settle down when he pitched later in the season, after not doing well earlier. He has very good stuff. I’d rather have him on the roster than Alexander, whom Roberts would keep bringing in with runners on base, hoping fora double play from his sinker, but mostly seeing base hits and runs instead. I am surprised that Alexander keeps making the roster and staying up; I guess he has no options, and they’d have to lose him, which to me would not be a bad thing.
I will reiterate that a lefty reliever is one of our question marks. I also think a number 2 starter is in question. The starter could emerge between kershaw, price, urias, or may. I love May but I think his starting pitching Arsenal is a bit short. He must think that also because he is working on a curve and change. I also read where in minor league evaluation they saw him as a great closer. Gonsolin could have a big year. I hope urias is the one who steps up he seems to have the best arsenal. On the lefty reliever search, v Gonzalez anyone?
2 updates:
1 – the Dodgers traded Kyle Garlick to the Phillies
2 – Alex Verdugo has a stress fracture in his back according to the Bosox
Sorry to see Garlick go. I truly hope he gets a chance with the Phillies to play with the big club. Dodgers acquire a USC Trojan in return. This should make AC happy.
Great job AC! I have never been one to get hung up with lists and how our prospects are rated by others. I do pay attention to them, but I just haven’t been able to figure out how the ratings are established. Also, I don’t what the difference in talent would be between a player rated in the top 5 and one rated 20-25. Certainly there are those generational talents that come along every so often that are truly can’t miss prospects. But for everyone of those there is a Gregg Jeffries, Ben McDonald, Andy LaRoche or Drew Henson. Plus, these lists always seem to ignore the prospects that may have much more drive and heart than talent (i.e. Matt Beatty). That said, it’s still good to know that we have a stable of good prospects, with more young pups on the way.
Dusty Baker is asking MLB to help protect his players from beanballs. Alex Wood had an interesting take:
Dodgers pitcher Alex Wood balked at the idea that Astros players were not disciplined for the sign-stealing scandal — they traded honest testimony in interviews with MLB for immunity from punishment — but others could be disciplined for throwing at them.
When MLB determines the intent of a pitch is to hit a player, it typically levies a suspension for between three and five games.
“Somebody will take it into their own hands, and they’ll get suspended more games than any of those guys got for the biggest cheating scandal in 100 years,” Wood said. “It’ll be pretty ironic when that happens, because I’m sure that’s how it’ll end up playing out.”
Sorry to see Garlick go too, but he’s 28 and has no chance with the Dodgers. Maybe he can earn an outfield spot with the Phillies.
The Dodgers are adding another interesting lefty, who has been bringing down his SO/W Ratio quite a bit over the past several years and has a 93 MPH Fastball with a “developing “cutter. He has an opportunity in middle relief.
IIRC, Gilbert was a NRI for the Phillies this year. Wonder if he gets a Dodgers invitation if only to get a better look at what they have
Very pleased for Kyle Garlick. I have followed his career very closely and he is one of those players who has literally willed himself to make it to MLB for ever how long that might be. He is a grinder. I really hope he makes the Phillies.
Lots of fans look at relievers and see their statistics of last year.
Some want Aaron Bummer because they look at last season and see his 2.13 ERA, but in the two previous years, his ERA was 4.26 and 4.50. Maybe he will put up another year of 2.13… but maybe he will put up a 4.00!
Many Dodger fans pine for Ken Giles who had a 1.87 ERA last year, but they forget that in the three years before that, he had ERA’s of 4.12, 4.99, and 4.65. Again, what he did last year may or may not be duplicated.
No, actually… I do not think he will duplicate that. In fact, I would bet the over.
Many wanted Edwin Diaz before he became a trainwreck last year.
Believing that Giles or Bummer will put up their same numbers in 2020 is purely delusional and wishful thinking. Maybe as delusional as believing Kershaw, Jansen, Kelly, Treinan, and others are done.
Remember this. Write it down and watch. You will learn that the flavor of the week usually changes!
First of all I don’t look at E.R.A. I hope I don’t have to explain to you why.
Second I don’t just look at last season stats, I look at career stats, several career stats.
Third your argument that ONLY relievers can have a bad year after having a good year and vice versa is preposterous because any baseball player can do that even the anointed baseball God Mookie Betts.
Yeah, and his bad year is better than 95% of most MLB players BEST year.
So what’s your point?
I’m trying to figure out your original point about Bummer and Giles. It seems like you think relievers are the only ones that can be volatile so don’t bother looking at relievers stats because no matter what they are crap shoots. That argument is completely wrong.
Completely wrong?
Relievers have the most volatile statistics of any position in baseball.
Agree or disagree?
If Verdugo actually does have a stress fracture in his back might Boston try to pull out of the trade?
They knew about his injury. I don’t see how they can try to get out of it now.
No, it was disclosed!
I believe the trade is official.
So they cannot back out at this time.
This is really strange. I assume that all the players in the first iteration of the trade were medically checked. That is why Boston didn’t want Graterol. They certainly knew that Verdugo missed the second half of last season, so one would think they would have been particularly careful here. Then the trade was redone, and I’m sure that Downs and Wong were checked as well, , maybe Verdugo again? And now suddenly they discover a stress fracture? Who discovered that, and was it the same doctor who had passed him before? Was it something he developed in the last week? Very odd altogether. Of course, I remember Ned Colletti, I think it was, acquiring Jason Schmidt, after his velocity had markedly declined in his last year with SF, and then it was discovered later that he had a torn labrum, and I think he won one game in the three years he was under contract with the Dodgers.
Not even close.
Apples and oranges.
Damn, this whole cesspool with the Astros is getting REAL. Alot of players throughout the league are putting them on full blast. Deservedly so, the owner made it even worse with his press conference the other day. Feel for Dusty Baker, I don’t think he realized what a smoldering pile of dung heap he was stepping into. Gonna be a long year for him, it’s probably gonna age him about 10 years. The Commish totally could have avoided this, and now he has a circus on his hands. Wow.
I wondered why Verdugo was accepted in the trade with Boston. I read about 6 weeks ago that he still was not ready to participate in any base ball activities(throwing, running , hitting etc.). I see Bumsrap mentioning a possible stress fracture. Is this rumor or did you read it in an article somewhere? I assumed when the trade went through that he must have been able to resume some activities or why would Boston ever agree to the trade?
Because it was disclosed and he can recover from it soon.
How stupid do you think Friedman is?
Anybody read the Larry Bowa interview on the astros and redsox cheating. Or is that old news. Bowa of course is old old school and his remedy is let the pitchers handle it old old school. He says Steve Carlton would of tatood their buts every time he heard the damn trash can lid bang. I support the old school method. Those guys deserve it. Just below the waste stuff…a knee or a shin. Ouch.
I prefer the Don Drysdale method.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2020/02/15/alex-verdugo-back-injury-stress-fracture/kyr228wSA8JsMHJMXqKSaN/story.html%3foutputType=amp
I said at the time that I would be wary of the back problem but it appears Boston we’re completely aware.
Still, Verdugo should make a full recovery.
Should…..