●Mercifully, the winter meetings are over. Lot’s of questions unanswered, but the main one for me is: Now what? As I wrote few weeks back, keep her steady as she goes. Also, remember, it was December 21, 2018, when the Dodgers surprised us with the Kyle Farmer trade. There’s lots of time between now and the start of spring training.
● It looks like Pedro Moura, of the Athletic, was correct as he was one of the few reporters (perhaps only one) that expected the Dodgers to stand pat.
●Admittedly, I was disappointed that the Dodgers didn’t swing a big deal. It felt as if though all of my friends were receiving bikes for Christmas, while I got the underwear, socks and orange in my stocking. That said, when I look at the insane contracts handed out last week to the top four free agents, I’m very grateful the Dodgers did not jump in at those prices.
●Some have argued that signing a free agent costs you nothing but money. I don’t buy that argument. Once a top free agent is signed, the signing team will, at some point, have to pare down some salaries and non-tender some good players. Look at the Angels, they gave away Will Wilson, their top draft choice from last year, just to have the Giants take on the Zack Cozart salary. I understand the argument that, today, Anthony Rendon is worth a lot more than Will Wilson. However, there is more to it than just that. You also have to factor in the ability to sign your own players when the time comes. When 15% of your salary outlay is to one player, or 30-40% is to 3 or 4 players, there will come a time that you have to pay the piper. During the entire life of that huge contract, it will require some very creative roster construction around the edges. Moreover, what happens when Buehler, Bellinger, Seager and the like approach free agency. Will you be able to keep them, as long as you are anchored down with large salaries.
●There is also the luxury tax(CBT) to consider. The thresholds for the 2020 season, assessed by the average annual value of a player’s contract, are: First Tier: $208 million; Second Tier: $228 million and Third Tier: $248 million. The penalties are a bit convoluted but fairly straightforward. Teams who exceed the limit for the first time pay 20% rate on every dollar spent over the amount. Teams who exceed the limit two years in a row pay a 30% tax and teams who do so three or more years in a row are pay a 50% tax. The Yankees are in that situation. As of December 12, 2019, they had $261.5 million in payroll entering the 2020 season. Right now, they’re right up against the third-tier of the penalties. Even if they stay below that area, which they’re trying to do, the Yankees will certainly be a repeat offender. There’s no way to avoid it. So, here is what their penalties will be: they’ll pay a 30% tax on every dollar over $208 million, a 42% tax on every dollar over $228 million, and about $75.00 or so for every dollar over $248 million. I’ll let AC figure out what that means in real dollars, but it certainly isn’t chump change. As a result, the Yankees are looking to unload J. A. Happ, a pitcher who has won 59 games over the past 4 years. In order to trade him, they will probably have to attach a very good prospect to him to be able to get another team to bite. In the past 4 years, Gerrit Cole has 54 victories. Mind you, before you get all gingered up, I am not arguing that Happ is a better pitcher than Cole, he is not. I am just pointing out that signing a free agent, doesn’t happen in a vacuum and it can come with additional cost, sometimes substantial, attached.
●I tire of the articles on who the “winners and losers” were during the winter meetings. I don’t even know what that means. A few years ago, pundits were writing that the Padres were the big winners of the off-season, because of the Matt Kemp trade, among others. A year later, it was the Diamondbacks who were the winners because they signed Zack Greinke and acquired Shelby Miller. I’m sure the fans of those teams are still raising their glasses high to their great winter meeting victories.
●Well, the Yimi Garcia era has ended as he has moved on the Marlins. I wish him well In Miami. Question is, who would you rather have, Blake Treinen or Yimi Garcia? There’s question marks attached to both, but, I would rather take my chance with Treinen.
●Is Anthony Rendon that much better than Justin Turner? In all likelihood, JT will not have the same success over the next 7 years as AR will. However, was last year a foreboding of things to come for JT, or merely an outlier due to injuries? I’m looking for a bounce back year from him next year.
●It’s said that Rendon wasn’t comfortable with the Hollywood lifestyle. Well good luck with the Real Housewives of Orange County lifestyle.
●Is there any chance remaining that the Dodgers can add a pitcher to the rotation? Of the free agents still on the market, who would you rather have wearing the Dodger Blue for the next 3 years? Ryu or Bumgarner? Why? If the goal is solely to win the WS, I would probably pick Bumgarner. Personally, I think he will be the better pitcher for the next 3 years. However, because I hate the Giants so much, the thought of him in a Dodger uniform conjures up memories of Juan Marichal being a Dodger and makes me want to puke. I could never stomach that thought.
●If a pitcher could be obtained by trade, who would you rather the Dodgers acquired, Matthew Boyd or Corey Kluber? Are there others, realistically available, who you would want?
●William posted yesterday: “I think that an ownership which is making more profits than any baseball franchise, except possibly for the Yankees, should be out there with them trying everything reasonable to put together the best team in baseball. The Dodgers do not do that, at least in my opinion.” If the Dodger front office does not care about winning, how do you explain the fact that the Dodgers have as many wins as they do over the Friedman era? Please understand, I do not intend this as a personal attack on William, as he appears to be a very intelligent poster. Moreover, I get his frustration.
●He also said: “You cannot consistently fail to land top free agents, or consistently pass on anyone at the trade deadline who is more than a three-month rental, and somehow expect to win titles, and then make excuses every time you fail. Well, you can, and they do.” Which player could the Dodgers have acquired by trade or signed as a free agent in the past 5 years that would have guaranteed that they would have won the World Series that year? Also, does the fact that the Dodgers have routinely acquired the best player or pitcher available at the trade deadline not account for anything? Does it matter that the players they acquire are only 3 month rentals, when the objective is to win the WS that year?
●If the Dodger front office does not care about winning the world series, how do you explain the fact that the Dodgers were one game away from winning it all in 2017? Or, that they were just 7-8 feet of a Will Smith drive to right center away from eliminating the eventual WS champs?
●If the Dodgers front office is cheap and won’t spend, how do you explain them signing Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner?
●When Kenley Jansen was the top reliever on the open market, were the Dodgers wrong for signing him? If so, why? Did you truly know that he would regress the way he has? If you did, what gave you that indication? Wouldn’t it have been ironic if Jansen had signed with the Nationals for the higher contract, as rumored, and he gave up a game winning home-run to Will Smith in the 9th inning of the 5th game this year.
●Were the Dodgers wrong for extending Clayton Kershaw’s contract when he opted out? The year before he became a free agent, I had floated the idea of trading him to Houston for Alex Bregman, Lance McCullers, Chris Devenski and Kyle Tucker. That was before Bregman became the player he is today. It was my thought that Kershaw could be replaced for a much less expensive pitcher and that Bregman could take JT’s place and the Dodgers wouldn’t have to resign him. I’m glad they resigned Kershaw, as I believe that there are certain players who need to have their careers begin and end with the same team. Kershaw is one of those players. He needs to go into the Hall of fame wearing a Dodger Blue cap.
●Is it required that the Dodgers sign every top free agent? Let’s assume, for example, that the Dodgers had signed Bryce Harper. How would that have changed the complexion of the rest of the team? Certainly they would not have signed AJ Pollack. Perhaps Belli would be the permanent 1 st baseman. Would he have had the same season playing 1st ? Maybe no MVP – what about Muncy? Would he have been the regular 2nd baseman. Would the team chemistry been the same?
●I wish just once that the recipients of the multi-year, mega million dollar contracts, would raise their voice for the plight of the minor league players and the abysmal salaries they get paid. I don’t think that’s ever going to happen though.
●Love him or hate him, Scott Boras had a very good week. I calculate that he made in the neighborhood of $35,000,000.00 to $55,000,000.00 in commissions last week. And, he isn’t finished yet. There’s a very good chance that Rendon and his family can now move into the same gated community in Orange County that Boras lives in.
●When looking at bad contracts, we typically look at those big contracts that didn’t work out so well. Josh Hamilton, Barry Zito, Barry Bonilla or Albert Pujols come to mind. The other day I read an argument that the worse contract in baseball belongs to Juan Soto. Think about it. Soto hit .283/.401/.548 with 32 doubles, 34 homers, 110 RBIs and 110 runs. He hit five postseason home runs, three of them in the World Series. He was one of the driving forces behind the Nationals winning their first-ever World Series, the first for D.C. in almost 100 years. He was paid $578,000 for his efforts. How much was he worth? Probably $30 million or more. Same could be said for Bellinger. Imagine if Stanton had the same year as Soto or Bellinger, no one would be whining that he was being overpaid. The baseball salary structure is flawed.
●I had a dental appointment on Friday, with a dentist in Menifee, California, the community where I work. I chose this dentist because of his name, Frank Pastore, as I remembered the MLB pitcher of the same name. I asked Dr. Pastore, if he gets asked about the name a lot because of the former MLB pitcher with the Reds, named Frank Pastore. Turns out that Dr. Pastore is his son. After finishing his baseball career(primarily due to injuries suffered after being hit by a line drive off the bat of Steve Sax), Frank Pastore, Sr., became a Christian and was the host of one of the most popular Christian radio programs on Glendale based KKLA. He died in November 2012, as a result of injuries suffered in a motorcycle/car accident. Ironically enough, on the day of his death, Frank Pastore had told his audience “Look, you guys know I ride a motorcycle, right?” “At any minute I could be spread all over the 210.” Three hours later a car struck him as he rode his motorcycle on the 210 between Glendale and his home in Upland. I have a bit of dental work to be done, so over the next several months, I will be asking him about the stories his father told him of his days with the Cincinnati Reds and the remnants of the “Big Red Machine.”
Great story about the dentist, AC. I’m also spending some time and money at the dentist this season. Just had an extraction on Thursday and will get an implant in 2 months. I’m willing to bet my life savings that I will never run into the son or daughter of a Dodger player that is a dentist in my neck of the woods. My dentist’s name is Sunee Punyayutthakarn. Can you guess where I live? lol
Irvine?
Bangkok?
STB you got it. I laughed at 59’s reply, but there are plenty of Thais in Socal. Not many baseball fans here, though.
Been to Thailand quite a few times on business, mostly Bangkok, Lampang and Chiang Mai. Love the people. Hate the heat.
First time I was in Bangkok was about 25 years ago and the traffic made L.A. traffic seem non existent (and that ain’t easy). It’s much better these days but still not great.
Retired now and haven’t been back in about 8 years.
STB, been here many years and yes, the heat is problem #1. However, here in BKK, the smog has taken over the #1 position. We have a great train system here and it is still a very pleasant place to be. I am actually planning on moving to Portugal in the near future.
Just realized it was 2D2’s post I was responding to. Sorry.
If I remember the comments Rendon made correctly. He said that he is from Texas and that should tell you his political leanings. Is LA too liberal for him? Did he see what happened to Orange county last election? Where is Anaheim located? The conservative areas seem to be evaporating in southern California . I just don’t get that statement.
Greetings from the DR:
Borass was driving the train. He let the Dodgers bid up the price for Cole and did not allow them to counter. Maybe Cole wanted NY over LA, but maybe he thought LA would bid up Rendon and that way he could get two $300 Million clients. AF did not play… maybe he was wise to the tactic but most likely he and his advisors were not impressed with Rendon as a Dodger. Let’s leave it at that… unless you just insist on attaching something sinister to it in order to fit your narrative.
There are flaws in the rest of the market as well:
Ryu- I think we have seen his best and injury (moving forward) is a concern. I might offer him two years at $38 Million. That’s it!
Bumgarner – I know he is thinking $100 Million. No way. Statistically, Clayton is still much better. Bum is not the guy who carried the Giants anymore. That ship has sailed. I would offer him a 3 year at $60 Million. I want you, but only at that price. Come and help us win a Championship,
Donaldson – He’s a year younger than Turner. Really, a 3-year deal at $75 Milion is too long, but I might do it for the edge he brings. If he signs, it would mark the end of Joc and if Bum signs it would mandate trading Maeda.
Hill – I know that Rich Hill will likely be out until after the All-Star Break, but he would be with the team and that’s worth a $2 or 3 Million incentive-laden deal. I would sign Dick Mountain for sure.
Trading Joc and Maeda would likely garner a top-shelf reliever and a couple of prospects (you can never have enough).
Matt Beaty could be a “Breakout Candidate” as could Ed Rios. Beaty will likely see time at 3B/1B an LF, as well. I would also think Kike or CT3 will be moved.
I am looking for Ruiz the second half of the season.
Let’s re-visit the lineup:
1. Verdugo RF
2. Bellinger CF (I want him to change his hitting style – fewer HR, higher BA)
3. Turner 1B
4. Muncy 2B
5. Donaldson 3B
6. Seager SS
7. Pollock/Beaty or Rios LF
8. Smith/Ruiz C
Great L-R Balance
Starters:
1. Buehler
2. Urias
3. Kershaw
4. Bumgarner
5. May
Pen:
Stripling
Gonsolin
Trienen
Jansen
Baez
Kelly
Bummer?
Ferguson
Bench:
CT3 or Kike
Rios, Beaty
Lux or Garlick
I could live with that lineup. I’m a little concerned about the Lindor rumors, which could trigger a ripple effect. But there’s no doubt that Lindor is a better ball player with less risk than Donaldson. Maybe a pitcher is attached to that trade, Kluber or Clevenger. Which would probably cost Lux and May. I think I would rather have Bum and May, than Maeda and Kluber or Clevenger. Maybe Lindor is just BS and they’re trying to trade a couple of MLB guys for Kluber or Clevenger.
I was thinking how awesome it would be to trade Seager. Not trade Corey, but trade for his big bro Kyle. He eats lefties for breakfast. Hanniger was all the talk of last year, but no one wants him this year. I’m wondering if the Dodgers are checking in on him as well. Or, maybe they’re in on Bryant and are just waiting for his case to be settled.
As far as Rendon and his comfort with the OC lifestyle as opposed to the LA lifestyle. For people who don’t live here, there is a big difference. I live in OC and work in LA, I know this first hand. People in OC are pretty middle of the road politically, whereas most people in LA are very, let’s say “passionate” about their political ideals. I don’t want to get into a political discussion so I’ll leave it at that.
Regardless, there’s still names available mostly in trades, and a couple of free agents remain. Doc still maintains there’s going to be some changes, but I’m not sure Doc is a reliable source of accurate information. The best news is, we’re a very good team right now. The bad news is, the Braves, Phillies and Padres are working hard at getting better and the Yankees just addressed their biggest need.
I don’t think we’re done yet. We’re in on impact guys. But, impact guys are gonna cost prospects, so there will be tears one way or another.
I like your Kyle Seager comment 59. I have always wondered about the Seager Brothers playing together like the Saxes. It would certainly solve the problem of having to move Corey over to third. Can not remember if Kyle is a Leftie or not. One of the problems with this is not being able to play Lux at 2nd which is where I would like to see him play most of the time.
Do you really think MadBum would sign here for 3/60 MT? I very much expect him to get his 5/100 deal from someone and wouldn’t be totally shocked if it was from us. If all you’re going to pay him is 60 mil, I don’t think you should be listing him as part of the rotation. The market has gone way past that.
I’m also thinking that Donaldson will get 4 years from someone, so I’m taking him out of your lineup. So now you have a hole in the rotation and another one at third (which you can fix by moving everyone back to where they were in putting Lux at second).
Agreed that we should trade Maeda and I was very ready to trade Joc, but I’m really concerned about Verdugo’s comments regarding his back. He’s hoping to be ready for opening day and hasn’t started baseball workouts yet. That is really a red flag for me and makes me think twice about trading Joc.
You’ll have time on your flight to fix the problems I pointed out, or you could just tell me I’m wrong.
I have no idea if Mad Bum would go for 3/$60, but I would not go higher. Ditton on Donaldson.
The Angels GM had this to say about the trade market for pitching.
“The prices are a little rich right now,” Eppler said of the market. “I’m not sure I’m going to engage at the level clubs are asking right now, but I know I can play if I want to.”
Ugh, the insane money contracts given to Cole and Strasburg among others seems to have trickled down to the pitching trade market. Friedman should have done what I suggested before free agency started. That the Dodgers should fix the bullpen right away since it is the team’s biggest need and then look at other possibilities later.
… and how was he to do that? Overpay?
My point was the opposite of overpaying. If Friedman lets say had a reliever in mind that he wanted to trade for coming into the off season that reliever’s price tag was probably lower than it is now because of the insane contracts of Cole and Strasburg among others.
Unless I’m missing something or are confused.
The bullpen could be fixed already – you never know with bullpens. If the Dodgers had traded for Edwin Diaz before 2019, you would have been ecstatic. But look what he did in 19. The guy that was not so good in 19 could be lights out in 20. That’s how bullpens work. The Yankees great bullpen caved in the playoffs
Fun column.
Still not buying the Josh Donaldson rumors. He’s 34, one year younger than Justin Turner. Maybe, if it was a two year deal, but now it could go to four years. At what point does the Bringer of Rain become Mr. Sprinkles? I think Turner is fine. I can see the Dodgers extending him next year.
Certainly Pedro Moura was correct, but he expects the Dodgers to make a trade or two in the next couple of weeks. It probably won’t be for Lindor. Why would the Dodgers give up Gavin Lux and Dustin May? As Ken Rosenthal pointed out, makes no sense. Lux, many baseball people believe, could become the next Lindor and May has a chance to be an excellent starter.
Since taking over five years ago, Friedman is first in wins in MLB , first in post season wins and first in division titles.
I like the idea of the Dodgers signing Madison Bumgarner, but I think it takes five years and probably $100 million. Hey, if Clayton Kershaw wants him, Dodgers fans should want him. Plus, it gives the Dodgers another pinch hitting option off the bench when he’s not pitching and Bumgarner wants to play on a post season bound team. Okay, the first time he pitches in San Fran may be a little weird, Giants fans will hate it. As far as pitching at Dodger Stadium in blue, hey I want to be at that game. Sounds like fun.
Signing or acquiring another reliever wouldn’t hurt, Betances? Imagine if all the bullpen guys clicked. Lights out.
No doubt, the Yankees may be whining about the Luxury Tax in the near future. But I’m guessing they’re gambling on the tax threshold changing greatly as part of the new agreement between players and owners. Obviously players and agents see it as an obstacle.
Looking at the way contracts are soaring, maybe the Dodgers should have signed Bryce Harper. Might look like a deal in another couple of years.
Nothing against Rendon, but I’m glad he signed with the Angels. I like Turner, he has flair and the Dodgers don’t have to play musical chairs in the infield. That means Lux at second. I’m still high on AJ Pollock, his second half was pretty good.
The Dodgers still need to clean up the cluttered outfield situation and focus on on pitching, starting and relieving. The Dodgers and Ryu situation is kinda weird. Still think he might be back, but are other teams simply willing to offer more years than LA is comfortable due to the injury history?
There may be more to do, but wouldn’t a turnaround by Treinen constitute at least for a partial fix to the bullpen?
Maybe I’m totally wrong or need to take a second look, but with all the power he has, I’m not all that sanguine on Edwin Rios. Hopefully he can change my mind.
I could see taking a chance with Donaldson at 3/$75. But at the same time I also see upside in deals for Lindor or Kris Bryant. In those cases the devil is in the details. Or should I say, the cost? And there are of course all the things we haven’t thought of that AF has. Speculation is fine, but. In the end I’m waiting to see what actually happens.
Ultimately I have confidence that AF knows what he’s doing, and certainly he knows a lot more than any of us.
I cannot see Cleveland trading Clevinger… unless he is damaged goods and then I would not want him.
Cleveland is allegedly asking for Lux and May for Lindor. That’s a non-starter for me.
Kluber could be very good or he could be done. That’s a big risk.
At this stage of the game, I would almost rather sign Castellanos and trade Pederson and CT3 or Kike. Casty plays left, Pollock is his caddy and plays all over the OF as well. I would rather sign Castellanos to a 4 year deal than Donaldson.
I wish we knew more about Verdugo…
Kluber to Rangers per MLB Trade Rumours
Kluber to rangers. Dodgers just sit on their ass. Im not shocked. Gutless front office. Jeez sign the janitor oh i know to expensive. Everyone offers more money and more talent then the billionaire dodgers. I guess guggenheim are living off food stamps. What a joke.
Lux and May for Lindor is also too much for me. And that’s why I said the devil is in the details.
And why does the reported Ranger deal tell anyone that the Dodgers are gutless and sitting on their ass? First off we don’t yet know the details of that deal, nor do we know what else the Dodgers are working on that would preclude them doing a deal for Kluber.
Actually we do know what the return is. 22 year old RHRP Emmanual Clase who went from A+ to MLB last year. At MLB he went 2-3 in 23 games and 23.1 IP. He had a save and 4 holds. He spent a lot of time in late inning situations. He struck out 21 and walked 6. He allowed 2 HRs and allowed 2 of 8 inherited runners to score.
The second player was Delino DeShields Jr. 2 years control is the only positive thing I can see about him.
CT3 with two years of control can play CF and is a better player than DeShields. The Dodgers do not have a 22 year old RHRP who averages 99.7 on his plus fastball and 90.6 on his slider. That is obviously who the Indians wanted. De Shields is serviceable .
I have no idea if the Dodgers even truly considered Kluber. Everything that is written talks about the Dodgers wanting Lindor, and the pitcher they want is Clevinger. I am guessing that they believe that Urias and May will be as good as Kluber this year. We will see who they have set their eyes on someone else.
Yes, as much as I have been on Kluber the last two years, I am disappointed.
2demeter2, I appreciated reading your thoughtful discussion on the issues of how the Dodgers are doing things, and the potential risks either way. I will just briefly say that based on numbers I have seen (and I obviously do not have access to the books), many MLB teams are making very good profits. I saw something which indicated that the Dodgers made the most profits last year, with Philadelphia second. As much as we might not like the expensive contracts, some other teams can and will pay them. We are basically refusing to play the game.
It’s their choice, but I do not applaud them for it; they would still make profits if they signed a couple of them. I cannot believe that the Yankees are not on sound financial footing, nor the Angels, nor most of the other clubs which take these risks. Yes, sometimes the big contracts do not pay off, but I have a strong feeling that the Cole acquisition will net the Yankees several titles, something which we obviously put a lower price on than the Yankees.
As to luxury tax, it exists, but other teams go over it. I do not see how the fans of the Dodgers gain one iota from the ownership not having to sometimes pay the luxury tax. The problem here is that the ownership may have maxed out attendance, so they figure, what is the gain in spending money, if they get 3.8 million or more fans a year? And I will reiterate my belief that because the Dodgers keep adding minority owners, they are obliged to virtually guarantee them profits each year as reward for the cost these new owners pay to join the group. Moreno does not need massive profits each year, whereas the Dodgers seem to . So here we are. I think that not signing Cole was a big mistake, even though I agree that there was some limit on price. Maybe he would never have signed here, but who knows, if we had the highest bid? And if this was already determined (which I don’t think it was), then the front office and ownership were very foolish to bid for someone they could not get, unless the goal was to look better by doing it.
I think that the Yankees will win the championship next year, which means that the Dodgers will not. To win the title, you have to be the best team, at least by playoff time. Being in the 90th percentile does not win the title. I don’t think that the Dodgers ownership either realizes that, or more likely, cares much about that. Put out a good team, get the 4 million fans coming in, making immense profits, that is a great season for them, even if the title drought goes 80 more years.
As to what we need to do, I do not think we have done nearly enough. We’ve added one relief pitcher, Treinen, who was very good two years ago, not good at all last year. He may rebound, he may continue to decline; more likely, he will bounce back a bit but still be erratic. A lot of people, and this is true of fans of most clubs, I guess, are very optimistic that just signing someone will magically restore his earlier form. The Dodgers do that a lot. Maybe we will get Betances whom I am not a fan of, though he has very good stuff. He’s coming off a year where he scarcely pitched. And the year before that, he was very erratic, blew leads in games I saw, was getting used less. Had the Dodgers earlier bid for Britton and/or Ottavino, or just recently Will Smith, we would be much better off. But my complaints about the Dodgers’ penuriousness in these areas extends past that of the big deals. LeMahieu was another one we could have gone after, but we chose not to. We almost always choose not to, somewhat like Bartleby the Scrivener.
I am not thrilled with a rotation which includes a declining Kershaw; Urias, who surely has potential, but has not proven it as a starter; May, a young pitcher who will need to grow,; and maybe Gonsolin, another such pitcher. I think Ryu is gone, he is unhappy that the Dodgers have not offered him. Stripling seems like an average pitcher to me. Bumgarner was so great a few years ago, but what are the chances that he will somehow return to that form? It is not impossible, sometimes pitchers do; Verlander had tailed off in the year and half before the end part of 2017. He may be our only real chance here, but he is no Cole at this point. Kluber is another risk, as other here have pointed out. That is the problem when you do not sign the star free agents, you end up spending rather substantial dollars and assets to take flyers on guys who were good in the past, but may not be so now. If analysis of Bumgarner’s pitching motion and speed is positive (and he did do quite well near the end of the season), I think we may have to take that chance.
Right now, the Yankees look like the best team, by some margin. After that, it is hard to say, but I would not be surprised if the Braves have a better record than we do, they were only about four games off last year. We could still win the National League, there are improving clubs like the Cardinals, but we still may be the best in the NL. I do have this thought that maybe last year’s major disappointment in the first round of the playoffs, with almost everyone realizing that Roberts was out of his element, might have a negative ripple effect. in the clubhouse. But maybe I am being unduly concerned about something like that. It is just a little difficult for me to see the Dodgers having another 100-win season, everything falling into place in a postive way. I could more likely see more cracks; a lack of leadership on-field; Seager looking to leave; Kershaw having more problems; Kenley continuing to decline. We’ll have to see. But even the Dodgers’ front office stated that there was something missing, and I think we all felt that some significant changes were needed. So far, we haven’t seen us do anything at that level.
I definitely share some of your concerns and frustration. However, I refuse to crown the Yankees as the best team in baseball. Nor do I think that all of the Dodgers will decline in performance. Will they all improve? No. Will all of your concerns about the Dodgers come to pass? Maybe. It’s just as likely that the Yankees suffer significant injuries, Cole blows out his arm in spring training and Judge and Torres hit at the Mendoza line. Is that likely to happen? No, but it certainly could.
Maybe we’ll sign Bumgarner or Ryu. Maybe we’ll trade for Boyd or Archer. Or, maybe Friedman will pull a rabbit out of his hat and trade for someone no one has talked about in all of the rumors flying about. Let’s let the off-season play out and see what happens.
You stated…“And I will reiterate my belief that because the Dodgers keep adding minority owners, they are obliged to virtually guarantee them profits each year as reward for the cost these new owners pay to join the group.”
I am not sure how many deals you have structured where you have brought in new partners into an existing operation, but I have been involved in dozens. In every case, the existing partners needed cash and were willing to sell a minority share of their investment for that cash. The minority partners were not nearly as interested in the annual operations, but in the overall strength of the investment and the gain in overall value. I have not spoken to any of the four new minority owners, but none of them need cash/annual profit to sustain their current lifestyle. This is a long term hold acquisition, not one that is conditioned on annual cash distributions.
I know you do not want to believe it, but the Dodgers had debt compliance issues, and to take on more debt was not a possibility. You want to compare the Dodgers to the Yankees and Angels, where there is no comparison. George Steinbrenner and a few minority partners bought the Yankees in January 1973 for $8.8MM. Arte Moreno bought the Angels in April 2003 for $180MM. But Mark Walter and his business associates paid $2.1B including the assumption of $412MM of Frank McCourt’s debt. So in 9 years, Guggenheim assumed debt nearly 4 times more than what Moreno paid for the Angels, and let’s not even consider the financial advantages of the Yankees that were purchased for $8.8MM. Walter and his business associates cash was partially funded by cash “loaned” to Guggenheim Baseball Management by life insurance reserves managed by Guggenheim.
This transaction has drawn a tremendous amount of scrutiny from insurance regulators. In November 2018, it was reported that Mark Walter and his business associates were pledging more than $20 billion of their personal wealth to backstop insurers associated with the purchase of the Los Angeles Dodgers, if those firms run into financial troubles. The highly unusual arrangement came six years after regulators questioned an arrangement under which the insurers contributed money that allowed Mark Walter and a group of co-investors to buy the professional baseball team back in 2012, for what was a record-breaking $2.15 billion. The insurers provided at least $300 million to help Walter and several co-investors buy the team.
So yes the original owners were looking for minority owners (undoubtedly with cash) to invest in the Dodgers. In addition, it has been widely reported that the ownership group needed the salary level to get down to around $200MM, thus increasing their profits. The Dodgers do make a good operational profit, but undoubtedly those profits and that investor cash is being used to eliminate much of the debt assumed from McCourt. They also invest heavily in organizational and player development and in analytics. The McCourts are scumbuckets and the current ownership group should be thanked for getting those assholes out as owners of the Dodgers. They are not playing on the same financial playing field as are the Yankees or Angels. But what they have done is hire the best Baseball Operations President to build the organization from the minor league system up, which is the only way to properly build a sustainable baseball winning organization. The team should be able to build a winner with a $200MM payroll. It may not be as successful as we all want, but it is sustainable, and I have no doubt that they will get that ring.
Okay, wait for it. Rangers acquire Kluber, the sky is falling.
But the reality is no one really knows what Kluber is right now. Jon Heyman reported last night that the Dodgers and Indians are still in talks, but it’s about Lindor, not Kluber. Does that really surprise anyone? If the two teams are still in discussions, there must be a possibility of something getting done. Maybe they get there, maybe they don’t, but apparently the door is open.
If May and Lux are off the table and I’m thinking they are, may be there is another package that Cleveland has at least some interest in, starting with Keibert Ruiz, perhaps Tony Gonsolin or Josiah Gray, Edwin Rios and Jeter Downs. The Dodgers have prospects, plenty of them. They could add a vet or two into the mix. We’ll see.
Interesting interview with Dave Roberts in this morning’s LA Times. He still thinks the Dodgers make something happen, “We’re not done.”
He also strongly believes the Dodgers need an October difference maker.
Regarding free agents, in this current market, expect to overpay. Otherwise, you’re not getting the player (Bumgarner, Ryu, Donaldson or any other legit free agent still out there).
Random comment about how the game has changed since I was a kid: I have been looking at some old team stats and was kind of amazed to find the following — the 1976 KC Royals went 90-72, winning the AL West. They were the team that lost the dramatic ALCS game 5 when Chris Chambliss hit a walk-off HR and couldn’t make it around the bases as the NYC fans stormed the field. That KC team hit a total of 65 home runs. Crazy. I kinda miss those days when a home run was special.
Yeah, I bet they stole a ton of bases too. That field was gigantic in 76 and I think it was turf if not mistaken. There were a few teams with huge outfields, turf and a ton of ground to cover. They would stack their outfields with speed instead of power to get the job done. Now, the fields are smaller and slower. Speed is not as important as putting the ball in the air.
1 – No one knows if Kluber will be any good next year. He has been good in the past but wan’t pitching well last year before he was hit in the head with that liner.
2 – The Rangers didn’t give up much to get him – a 21 YO reliever with a great fastball and a CF who can’t hit. If the Dodgers wanted him they could have easily surpassed that deal, so either the Indians REALLY REALLY wanted the youngster or the Dodgers just weren’t interested.
3 – If the season started right now, the rotation would be Buehler, Kershaw, Maeda, and 2 of Urias (who threw only 78 innings last year and won’t last as a starter all year this year), May, Gonsolin (also didn’t pitch that many innings last year) and Stripling. Ryu was their best pitcher most of the season and he won’t be there. The SP isn’t as good as last year if the season started today. Will they do something about it?
4 – I don’t get the idea of a Frankie Lindor trade if it costs them May or Lux. Lindor is only under control for 2 more seasons and his acquisition forces all Dodger INF to move (Seager to 3B, Turner to 1B, Muncie to 2B) and keeps Lux in the minors for another season.
5 – Besides, what they need is pitching right now.
6 – Remember Molly Knight’s hypothesis from The Athletic:
“Another reason people are skeptical that the Dodgers went all-in on these guys is because it flies in the face of this ownership group’s (and Friedman’s) approach to how they’ve always done business. They have spent money, yes, but they haven’t given out a contract north of $100 million to a free agent since they signed Zack Greinke in 2013 and that was before Friedman got to town. Mega-deals like the ones given to Rendon, Strasburg and Cole are not Friedman’s call, however. They are ownership decisions.
There are two scenarios at play here, and both are not good. The first is that the Dodgers exaggerated their willingness to spend big on the free-agent market in order to say to fans, “Hey, we tried.” The second is that they were prepared to outbid everyone for Cole and Rendon, but Cole and Rendon did not want to be Dodgers. Fans are stuck on the former scenario, screaming that ownership is cheap and Friedman is a moron.
But isn’t the latter scenario scarier? The Dodgers have won their division seven years in a row. They lead the universe in attendance. They play in the most glamorous city in the world. They have the money to spend. And Anthony Rendon would rather play for … the Angels? The team that hasn’t won a playoff game in 10 years? Yikes.”
7 – Baseball isn’t like hand grenades – close doesn’t count. The Dodgers have been close. Are they willing to do what it takes to acquire a difference maker to win this year?
#2, I agree the Dodgers were just not interested. Nobody listens to what I want (I do not blame them).
#3 – I am a lot more optimistic on the Dodger “kid” pitchers than you apparently are.
#4 – Lindor is that difference maker, but I agree not for Lux and May.
#5 – You know I agree.
#6 – Agreed that contracts at the level of Cole, Stras, and Rendon are approved at the ownership level. Apparently the owners were in on Cole for $300MM, and apparently Rendon was not enamored with the Hollywood Lifestyle with the LAD so it did not matter what the offer was. Texas is now saying that their $192MM 6 year contract was an opening bid, and Boras never went back to Texas to let them counter. Strasburg should never have been considered as a realistic acquisition. Sometimes it takes more than money to get the FA. It is looking more and more like Donaldson is going to get 4 years, Ryu will get 4 years, and MadBum will be getting 5 and $100MM. Every one of those is a risk. I have no idea what the Dodgers will end up doing if anything. But they will win the NL West and be in a position to win it all. Washington does not get to the NLDS if Trent Grisham does not overrun the base hit in RF. Washington does not get into the NLCS if Roberts does not have a brain freeze in the 8th inning Game 5. The Nats got a lot of help from Stras, Scherzer, and Rendon, but they get nowhere without the help from Kendrick, Zimmerman, Eaton, Corbin, Hudson, Doolittle, et al. Before last year, Rendon was not a difference maker in the playoffs. Are you so sure and convinced that this current Dodgers lineup will continue to be anemic? You may be right.
#7 – In theory you are right, but I believe they have had the team that could have won, but didn’t. Are the Dodgers willing to do what it takes to acquire a difference maker to win? Perhaps they should hire an electrician to wire up a camera in CF to steal catcher’s signals so the batter knows what’s coming as the cheating Astros did. The Dodgers win that WS if the Astros do not know the pitch. Marwin Gonzalez K’s on a KJ cutter instead of not offering knowing what was coming, and then sitting on KJ’s fastball for the HR. Or Clayton Kershaw getting hit harder than he ever was before or after in Houston after owning the Astros at Dodger Stadium. The Astros cannot be punished enough as far as I am concerned.
It’s been a long time since I posted here but I have been reading the comments on a daily basis. My health hasn’t been the best and I’ve been in and out of hospitals since the beginning of August.
This is what I would do as far as Cleveland is concerned: I would trade Lux and May along with Maeda or Stripling and Ferguson for Lindor, Clevinger and Hand. If they refuse then walk away. I would also take a chance and sign Betances.
I have no problem with Hand closing and Lindor would have to sign an extension.
I’d swap out May for Ruiz
Richie,
I hope you get to feeling better.
Godspeed!
Thanks Mark: Your blog helped keep me in good spirits
I won’t mention any names, but some here do not deserve to draw air and make the rest of us dumber.
It’s good to see that some of you don’t want to be encumbered by facts. It’s easy to arrive at any conclusion when you start at the bottom line and work up. I wish I could do my taxes that way.
Some of you are a prisoner to your thoughts. Your mind is holding you hostage Pay the damn ransom!
Do you know the last thing a stupid redneck says before he dies?
“Hey you’all, watch this”
Was he gutless? No, just stupid!
Whoever signs Corey Kluber is going to get one of three outcomes:
1. He will be better than last year;
2. He will be worse than last year; or
3. He will be the same as last year!
THAT’S IT! 2 out of 3 are bad! Even Ray Charles can see that.
OK, I wasn’t going to use any names, but I changed my mind – when James Moya posts, I lose brain cells because he starts from a position that is logical inside a demented mind but bears no basis in fact.
So my advice to him is STFU! We know what you are going to say and it is really dumb! Are we clear?
Go back to http://www.ladodgerreport.com where insanity is a prerequisite.
A couple of comments MT:
1) It would be hard for Kluber to be worse than he was last year. 35 IP, 5.80 ERA. Yes technically he could be worse, but I think it’s safe to stick with your options 1 and 3. Nobody asked me, but I vote for #1.
2) “Even Ray Charles can see that” . If you’re going to use a comment like that (which I must admit I’m not in favor of in the first place), why don’t you pick someone who’s still alive. Ray died 15 years ago. Otherwise you could pick any dead person and insert his name, not just a blind one.
My comment number 2 is just an indication that I have too much time on my hands, but you’ll have to admit it does have a basis in fact. 🙂
Mark who is on the dodgers payroll. So the dodgers sign kazmir, anderson, and mccarthy. Fo are brillant right. Sign a guy with a healthy arm oh no cant.
Sorry, but I just don’t suffer fools.
Feel free to disagree with me. AC does! 2D2 does.
Just don’t say stupid shit!
Stupid Shit
I follow directions as a last resort.
AC has been pimping Corey Kluber for two years.
He may be right.
I don’t agree but he could be right.
He just doesn’t call the Dodgers dumbasses for not getting him.
He may be right.
Time will tell.
As I remember Mark it was you and I that protested getting Kluber last year. I wanted to trade for Syndargard instead.
Madison Bumgarner close to signing a 5 year deal with Arizona. Yikes.
Looks like 85 mil with 15 of it deferred. We definitely could have (and I think should have) beaten that, but I really don’t know if he ever wanted to come here.
Some of that may be the same reasons Rendon didn’t want to be here.
I wouldn’t hate it if he pitched for the Dodgers. I think that contract is too long for a pitcher who’s stuff is on the decline.
He belongs on the Dbags.
Well that’s a bummer! Not that I cared if we signed Bumgarner or not. It’s just that now all those T-shirts are going to have to be changed to “Get the ball out of the Pool!”
If they are in the pool on the day the Dodgers clinch the Division, then maybe the Dodgers could get them out while they celebrate.
I hope AZ signs Puig.
I think he might be back with Donnie Ballgame. 😉
Awesome, good job on that one. He should have just said water in the first place.
So for those of us who are hoping we get another starter into the mix, we’re basically down to Ryu or trading for Clevinger or someone else that AF has identified that we haven’t thought of.
I think that by the time Manfred is done with Houston this year, they’ll be a total shambles for 2020. Old friend Zack Greinke might be a wasted asset for them if they are banned from the post season next year (a penalty which I think would be very justified). Anyone here in favor of approaching the Astros to see if we can get Greinke back here for the remaining two years of his contract? He’s owed 70 mil so they would have to kick in some $ but he really had a great year last year so he’s still valuable. 18-5 with an ERA below 3 and a WAR of over 6.
No thanks! Leave it to Manfred to do something stupid. Did you see Trevor Bauer’s comments about him?
I get the feeling Friedman would swap Seager for Lindor or Friedman could tell Seager that he will trade for his brother if Cory extends through 2025.
I would enjoy having Lindor and Betts on the Dodgers. I would like Seager to move to third rather than traded to Cleveland but I think Friedman prefers Muncy’s hitting approach more than Seager’s so maybe the team loses Seager to add Lindor.
Players that could interest Cleveland not named Lux or May are Seager, Downs, Muncy, Taylor. I include Muncy and Seager because Lindor would otherwise make a 5 man infield.
Now you have a 3 man infield.
I only said there would be interest in those players and wasn’t suggesting all would be traded.
Regarding Kluber – Huge risk! He was declining at the end of 2018 and imploded last year. He’ll be 34 next year and he’s hardly cheap. The Rangers gave up a young, max controlled closer type with an elite fastball. They also gave up a very good defensive CF who also just might be the fasted dude in the game.
I would say Gonsolin and CT3 would be a fair comp, but the Rangers deal is still a little better, so add another player and tell me if you would do the deal. I wouldn’t.
I’m glad Mad Bum is choosing the DBags. I don’t like him, but I respect him a little more for not wanting to be a Dodger after being a Giant his whole career. That is the most valid reason for not wanting to come here.
I’m gonna say what at least some are thinking. Maybe some players don’t want to play for Doc and AF and their “way of doing things”. They’re not gonna come right out and say it, but the coach and GM are supposed to sell free agents on why they should want to join the team. Not one of the top guys made the Dodgers their top priority.
Sure, the deals are outrageous. But, what’s another year, or another 5 mil?
There are still opportunities to improve the team, but this is getting depressing.
I with you on this, doesnt seem like anyone wants to be here with Doc an AF!
59inarow – I agree with you on the Kluber deal. Disagree on the perception that some players don’t want to play for Doc or AF because of “their way of doing things.” Probably 90% of baseball front offices are copying the Dodger “way of doing things.” Doc and AF are among the most admired and respected men in the game. Moreover, none of us know with absolutely certainty that “Not one of the top guys made the Dodgers their top priority.” What we do know is what is written in the various news outlets and by Rosenthal and the like. They have been wrong over 80% of the time in their prognostications this off-season. Why should we take their word as gospel?
Well 2d2. I was making a point about the top free agents the last couple of years. It sure didn’t look like anyone one of those 5 guys showed a lot of interest in us. And it sure doesn’t look like 90% of the teams hit a strikeout happy power hitter that isn’t fast first, or only use the same lineup 5 times in a given year.
Bumgarner to sign with the D-Backs. Not saying I wanted him as a Dodger, but it’s looking more and more like the FO might indeed be under an ownership edict to only buy in the bargain aisle.
Agreed
Never though they truley wanted to upgrade always thought just enough for profits lol
I predict:
Lindor and Clevinger for:
Seager, Downs, Urias or
Muncy, Downs, Taylor, Urias.
Betts for:
Verdugo and Gonsolin or
Verdugo and Maeda
So this is not an exciting team technically we are worse than last year. So what do you think is the next move?? Ok we possibly get back Hin Jin but were still not better it’s the same team. Dont think the Lindor trade is gonna go down, so where we at chat????
We know that Friedman is intelligent, and has a good track record in some ways. But is it beginning to look as if there is no carefully planned out process here? Or is it just that we are constrained about going on the high end, except for rare exceptions, and then when we can’t do that, we sort of just look around for whatever is left, and make a virtue of necessity?
None of us knows exactly what goes on in discussions among Walter, Kasten, Friedman , and Roberts. But not knowing does not mean that we must always give them the benefit of the doubt as to what they are doing. It seems that they are absolutely unwilling to make a major trade, break up some of the roster. Maybe they’ll still show that this is not so, but what big trades have you seen us make in the last three or four years? Mostly, we trade minor league contracts, or dump salary.
So now we are going to go with a starting staff which will have only two returning starters from last year, and not because we have some shining new additions? We are going to rely on three starters who have started, what, twenty games among them in their MLB careers? The bullpen so far has one addition, a pitcher who was very good, until last year, when he was not good at all. No additions at the plate, and Verdugo’s health is a question mark.
It’s still a few months until the start of the season, but does anyone sense that there is some kind of coherent plan? That we have carefully rated and evaluated the players available? How much of this is just about money; we don’t want to spend on long-term deals, we don’t want to trade cost-controlled players. I am sure that we’ll get somebody, but will it be somebody whom we will all be thrilled to add, who will be a clear upgrade to help us this season? Will we start the year with a solid bullpen and a #2 starter? Not the latter, there are none left. Other teams make moves; sometimes they may be wrong or foolish, sometimes good. We don’t make any of significance. Are we waiting to grab a top pitcher five years from now? Don’t hold your breath.
I’ll tell you what could happen in a negative scenario. Urias is not that good, or various physical problems crop up. May shows flashes, but is inconsistent. Gonsolin maybe a bit more consistent, but his stuff is a question. Jansen has just lost his high-speed cutter, the rest of the bullpen is okay, but not at all great. Turner gets hurt again. Verdugo is slow to recover from the serious injury. Bellinger hits like he did during the second half of last year, .280 or so, with 35 HRs. No one in the starting lineup hits .300.
Is this far too negative? Maybe, but it’s certainly within a reasonable range of possibilities. And if those young pitchers are not as good as the ownership and front office and fans desperately want them to be, then what? We do not really have much to trade, and there are no top free agent pitchers on the market next year. So we are stuck. You see, there is a way to imagine that the “Dodgers approach” will all pay off in the long run; and there is also a way to imagine that it will deflate of its own unwillingness to add top players from other teams, and we will be nothing much. The dramatic fixes seem beyond the interest or the willingness of our ownership and front office,so we are left to just keep hoping that our farm system is so good, that we can just win big with them. Interestingly, I know of no other larger market team in baseball which relies on just their farm system. Many of them go after free agents, and the infusion of talent allows them to trade other players.
Look at our roster, and see how few players we have whom we both would be willing to trade, and who would be worth a high price on the trade market. Taylor, Pederson, Hernandez, Maeda, Pollock, Kelly, not worth much at all in trades. People write about whom we could trade, but really, except for our rookies, there is almost nothing. That is because we have not had infusions of talent via signing free agent stars. Most of our team is reclamation projects, under the radar players, and then a few young players whom we will not trade. The Dodgers way, trying to win titles without long-term contracts, or obtaining any top free agent, may actually have had its high point in 2017. I wouldn’t ordinarily bring up Tampa Bay, but Kasten did. How many titles did they win?
3 returning starters as of now. Buehler, Kershaw, Maeda.
There is no other top-level pitcher (Ryu is not), so I think that the only thing left to do is some trade for pitcher-batter combo.
Kluber-Lindor is no longer possible, but there is still Price-Betts, Greinke-Correa , Happ-Andujar, those teams are looking to free up some money, so I think it would be very possible, right?
We still need a good pitcher and a right handed batter
Ryu may never have a good season again, but I find it interesting that you claim that the guy who finished second in the Cy Young voting is not a “top-level” pitcher.
In my opinion he is very much a top level pitcher. The only question is whether he will stay healthy.
I’m hoping AF has a blockbuster trade in the works, but to re-visit an “old and tired” discussion that some might find offensive but in addition to what William said (it appears as of the FO won’t trade cost-controlled players and it also appears we doesn’t to want to spend $$ on free agents. What is the plan?
I would further offer the same caveat, that in addition to a confusing off season plan (at least so far) my confidence level in AF is seriously diminished when you look at the trade and FA track record and names like Latos, Jim Johnson, Kazmir, McCarthy, Anderson, Pollock and Kelly come to mind. Yes, there are some exceptions like Enrique Hernandez and CT3, but to this point many of the plaudits for AF’s work has been that he has been reticent to trade young talent. For that I give him an A grade, but in FA and big league roster trades I give him a solid C+.
Do Rich Hill, Yu Darvish, Manny Machado, Alex Wood or Yasmani Grandal ever come to mind? They are some rather astute acquisitions, don’t you think? Several of these trades involved the Dodgers giving up solid young talent. Do you also fault AF for holding on to Bellinger, Seager, Urias, Lux and May? How would getting rid of those players make the Dodgers better?
Read the freaking post. I gave AF an A grade for holding onto the young talent and in addition to the players you offered as good trade acquisitions I pointed out some pretty abysmal ones as well. Hence a C grade.
This logic doesn’t hold, 2D2. Astute acquisitions? None are on the team and most didn’t last very long.
I have always been in on Ryu being re-signed. It makes sense. #2 in CY award, healthy, and the best ERA in the league. If he walks, it shows me the FO is all in on their youngsters, Urias, May, & Gonsolin, Smith & Lux. They only acquire talent as rentals or to try and get rid of a player(S) when they are unhappy with someone. Little of it is planned for the future. The future of the Dodgers lies in the farm. This is how they operate. I’m not against this, just want them to augment this position with some astute signings for the long term. This year, they will be tested to see if the youngsters are all that. Lux, Smith, May & Gonsolin, will all have to prove themselves as worthy MLB starters. There are some big questions about to be asked. Can the pitchers endure? Can the fielders hit well enough? Is Lux really going to play the OF? Next season will be a major litmus test for the FO and their philosophy of internalization.
Because they are no longer on the team, does that make them any less astute?
In addition, they did sign Kershaw, Jansen and Turner when they were on the top of list of available free agents. That does count for something.
I’m definitely not saying that the FO is perfect. They’ve made some mistakes. That said, compared to all other 29 teams, their track record is pretty doggone good.
Yes, it does, 2D2. The definition of astute=Having or showing shrewdness and discernment. They were not astute but expedient. Expedient definition= Suitable or efficient for accomplishing a purpose. The purpose did not hold up for very long. All were temporary bandaids that the FO took off once they could. They never intended to sign Yu and Machado to contracts. Hill was walking wounded, constantly. Woods was on a roller coaster with no consistency. And Grandal for Kemp? We see what happened to Grandal and to Kemp. Both will make money but not with the Dodgers. Can it be any more clear?
I want 2 relievers:
Will Harris and Tyler Clippard are free agents worth looking at.
Ken Giles 1 year contract is worth trading for, although the trade market for pitchers has gotten more expensive. Should have got this done immediately.
Dellin Betances, I really like his stats, but the Dodgers are already taking a chance on Treinen.