So, if you listen to the Herm Edwards, you would always play to win the game. Well, that might be true in a 16 game football season, but I am going to suggest that while you don’t ever play to lose, in a baseball season that is 10 times longer than a football season, there are reasons you don’t always play to win the game.
“Sometimes we need to lose the small battles in order to win the war.” — Sun Tzu, The Art of War
There are several reasons you may not always play to win the game:
- You are saving some players to fight another day. As an example, I am sure that Justin Turner and David Freese could have played last night, but the Dodgers want them to be as healthy as possible for the playoffs. Freese is the biggest issue as I suspect his knee is a lot worse than we know. That’s why he will rest 2 or 3 days between starts. I suspect that come playoff time, he will get an injection and play through the pain, but playing him now is just felony stupid. Let him stay sharp – the Dodgers need him for the playoffs. As fans, we don’t have access to injury issues: the Dodger won’t disclose them (and shouldn’t) and we simply have no clue, so when you continually question why certain players are not playing or why the Dodgers even have certain players (Gyorko, Negron) you brand yourself as a rank novice. You might as well tattoo it on your forehead.
- You deliberately want to mislead the competition. This is an area that really can’t be quantified, but I suspect that in 2019, the Dodgers will engage in it more than any other team. No one will talk about such a thing, but I believe that certain pitching patterns, substitution patterns and even hitting patterns will deliberately be changed for the playoffs. When you want to win the war, you can afford to lose some battles. Let’s pick a pitcher, any pitcher: Clayton Kershaw. I think that in these upcoming playoff games, you will see him vary certain patterns of pitching. Advance scouting may say that on a 3-2 count to a lefthander he always throws a fastball, but in the playoffs that could be a backdoor slider or a curve. I am not talking about huge changes, but rather, subtle changes that can have big effects. I’m not suggesting that other teams won’t do the same – I just think the Dodgers brass is all in on some deception, right about now.
- You want to help certain players get their mojo back. The classic examples of this are Chris Tayor, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, and Kike Hernandez. To win a championship, all four need to be clicking on all cylinders. All three of these players are “rhythm” players, meaning that they need to play a lot to get the “feel” for their game. This is especially true with the “excitable” Kike Hernandez – you have to play him enough so that he doesn’t try and hit 8-run homers. Add in the fact that he is excellent defensively anywhere he plays and you understand why Doc keeps rolling him out. This is also true with the pitchers. Many of you wanted to dump Caleb Ferguson and Yimi Garcia, but both have an excellent chance of being on the playoff roster.
- You want to see how certain players perform in certain spots. This includes letting Joc hit against some LHP and having Dustin May pitch in relief. Again, many Dodger fans were eager to dump May after he got bombed a few days ago, but he has shown he can be a viable option out of the pen. Dave Roberts will be doing a lot of this in the weeks ahead.
It’s more important to have the team ready than to have the best record, but of course, it would be nice to have both. Now that Dave Roberts has become the first and only manager to win a division Championship in all of his 4 years of managing to give him a large degree of credibility that very few managers have. I’m glad Dave Roberts is managing this team.
Injury News
- Rich Hill – I think the best-case scenario is that he can pitch an inning of relief here and there. Worst case is that his season was over. It’s too bad because his stuff was filthy early in the game. His fastball was hitting 93 MPH and his curve was devastating until his knee would not allow him to throw properly. Never count him out, however!
- Justin Turner – He had an MRI and it showed just a sprain. He might pinch-hit a little but he’s likely to sit for a few days.
- Max Muncy – He’s due back today and that will be a big boost. The team is excited to have Mad Max back.
- Scott Alexander – He was already out for the year, but had surgery to relieve nerve pain in his left arm. I still look for him to fulfill the promise I saw in him when he was acquired. Maybe next year…
- Alex Verdugo – He may go back to baseball activities this weekend, but his lower back has been the issue. He may need to pull a Clayton and Corey and go off dairy and rehab it this winter.
Next, it is three with the Mets and two off-days next week. The team can use it. Kershaw and Thor tonight…
Rhythm players??? I needed an additional 5MG vicodin just to ponder the significance on that one!!! I could see Wally Pipp imploring his NYY manager that he was a rhythm player and this Lou Gehrig has got to wait… If Kike and the rhytm-ettes aren’t ready, we go with the hot hands…
Losing Hill hurt… I was hoping he was in the 4 SP… Yes oh Exalted One, at times I’ve wanted to some or all of em at one time or another, but our roster rules…
“I’ve wanted to move some or all em at one time or another and let the auditions set the path”…
I keep thinking Gonso deserves a a shot at post season starts…Am i crazy for thinking this way??
No. I think he is on the roster!
What is wrong with Hill ?? This guy cant stay on the field. The Blister, the arm, the knee, wow . Is this Darren Dreifort 2.0 or Kazmir (For injury history not performance ) ?? He has been good during his contract and excellent in postseason. But in regular season his durabiliry is 20-25 starts and 120 to 140 innings and good numbers overall but this season he has not been able to be on the mound . He gets injured with everything (Mr Blister) Now he is Mr Everything . Can be great pitcher but at this point this setback will cost him any chance of postseason, maybe he can do relief but it does not seem good and if he is not sharp he has no control.
I hope Hill returns but i think Dodgers would have to take a chance on Gonsolin and May for October. I can see May start a game in postseason. Gonsolin i think could do both but he seems better Suited and ready for Bullpen than May at this point. I would not sign him for next year only in a incentive 1 year deal but nothing guaranteed and no quality offer please !! Also has anyone notice Ryu cant even walk right ??? I think that is why he has been so bad lately cant even stride normal when hi pitches anymore. I hope he has something left in tank if not it will be very hard to advance in postseason !!!
There is zero chance Hill gets a QO.
It depends upon if he wants to come back with an incentive-laden deal or not.
Agreed. It’s better for the Dodgers to probably let him go somewhere else rather than be disappointed once again with his injuries, and keep the spot open for one of the young guns to take. Urias, Gonzo, and May, should begin next season on the roster. Hill is certainly a good pitcher, but like Freese, they can’t play enough to justify taking a spot away from an up and comer.
the Dodgers may offer him a contract as a reliever, but his days as a starter for them are over after this season. Angels, Bosox, A’s, Padres, Cardinals, Giants, or even the Yankees may offer him a one year deal with incentives as a starter
Good morning. Not crazy Peterj. I agree about Gonsolin. He does deserve and should get a chance to start and be on the playoff roster. Good bullpen work last night. Looking forward to a close but exciting series with the Mets and a series win of course.
To those of you who were worshiping Houston, they have now lost three in a row and have the same record as the Dodgers.
Homer Bailey got his 13th win over Justin Verlander and Homer is now 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA in his last 4 starts.
Go figure!
Oakland is 8-2 in their last 10 games for the best record in baseball, but the Dodgers are tied for the 2nd best record at 7-3 and still Dodger fans are losing their minds.
Come on…
Didn’t we have Homer for a second?
Could we have kept him at OKC just in case?
After all, aren’t we paying him?
I’ve prolly got it wrong….
An old memory, as I recall, Bailey would only waive his no trade contract clause if Dodgers agreed to release him even though they were paying the remainder of his contract. His chance of pitching as a starter for the Dodgers was pretty dang close to zero.
We had him, but the deal was contingent upon him being released.
He had no chance with the Dodgers.
Very impressive that Oakland beat Houston three games in a row at home, before losing the last one; and then got blasted in the first game at Houston, only to win the next three. Beating the Astros six out of eight was remarkable. I always admire the work of Billy Beane, and this team is quite strong, though of course they still have to fight for the wild card spot,, and then likely have to win series at NY and Houston to “win that last game,” as the movie “Moneyball” put it.
Houston is still essentially a game ahead of us in the tiebreaker for home field, because they have a better intradivisional record, which is the tiebreaker if the teams did not play each other. NYY are essentially three games ahead of us. Neither of these teams is invincible, but neither are we, of course, since we followed losing two of three at home to SF, to winning two of three at Baltmore. The next five games with NYM and TB will determine whether we can somehow win home field against at least the Astros. Kershaw has to win tonight. I think his ERA is over 9 in the last month, as shown by a graphic on TV.
It didn’t feel good but we had a 4 & 2 home stand, then took 2 of 3 .
I will take that.
Milwaukee and Oakland 8-2 last ten. Then a whole bunch including Dodgers at 7-3. So I guess the Dodgers doing pretty much as well as any.
I understand the point being made about players health, seeing players in different roles, making certain players get enough at-bats / pitches to be at the top of their game, but those playing the game should give 100% effort to winning once the bell rings and they cross the foul line. The manager may want a pitcher to work hitters in different locations, and / or pitch sequences, etc., but he should be reinforcing that we play to win whenever we take the field. The fans deserve nothing less.
I agree and disagree with that. I don’t think it wise to run through a wall to get a ball once you have clinched. Live to fight another day.
Houston Mitchell on the playoff roster:
The playoff roster
There are still a little over two weeks left in the season, so a lot can happen, but if the season ended today, who would be on the playoff roster? Let’s take a look, assuming the team goes with 13 position players and 12 pitchers as it did last season:
Position players who are locks to make the team:
Cody Bellinger
Kiké Hernandez
Russell Martin
Joc Pederson
A.J. Pollock
Corey Seager
Will Smith
Chris Taylor
Justin Turner
Position players on roster if healthy:
Max Muncy
Alex Verdugo
That’s 11 players right there. Things look promising for Muncy to come back, but not as promising for Verdugo, whose oblique injury is OK but is now dealing with back issues. So, let’s say Muncy comes back and Verdugo doesn’t. That leaves three spots left among: Austin Barnes, Matt Beaty, David Freese, Jedd Gyorko, Gavin Lux, Khristoper Negron, Edwin Rios.
The only way Barnes makes it is if the Dodgers feel they need three catchers. Seems unlikely. Or if Smith goes 0 for 60 to end the season. Also seems unlikely. I don’t see Gyorko making it. He’s four for 26 since being acquired. Even if Muncy is hurt, I think the Dodgers would go with Lux over Gyorko. And I think Lux only makes the team if Muncy is hurt. (Again, Lux could go 20 for 25 and force his way on the roster, those are my thoughts as of today).
So that leaves Beaty, Freese and Rios. If Verdugo comes back, Rios is gone. That means the 13 position players would be Beaty, Bellinger, Freese, Hernandez, Martin, Muncy, Pederson, Pollock, Seager, Smith, Taylor, Turner and Verdugo or Rios.
Now the pitchers
Pitchers who are locks to make the team
Pedro Baez
Walker Buehler
Kenley Jansen
Joe Kelly
Clayton Kershaw
Kenta Maeda
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Julio Urias
Will make team if healthy
Rich Hill
Hill started Thursday night against Baltimore, but had to leave after hurting a knee. Initial reports are that it was not serious. Let’s hope that’s the case and assume he will be healthy (a big assumption, I know). That leaves three roster spots.
Pitchers on the bubble
Caleb Ferguson
Dylan Floro
Yimi Garcia
Tony Gonsolin
Adam Kolarek
Dustin May
Casey Sadler
Ross Stripling
I’m sure the Dodgers will want to take at least one more left-hander for the bullpen, meaning either Ferguson or Kolarek makes the team. I’ll pick Kolarek, but really, they are both auditioning the next two weeks and how either has performed against the first-round playoff opponent will carry a lot of weight as to who makes the team.
That leaves Floro, Garcia, Gonsolin, May, Sadler and Stripling for the last two spots. A lot will depend on matchups. Who will the Dodgers play in the first round? Have any of these pitchers had particular success against that team? Will Garcia be on the team all season only to be left off the playoff roster? Sadler was pitching well but has struggled a bit recently. Stripling has playoff experience. I don’t see Gonsolin making the team unless Hill is hurt. May has not pitched that well in the bullpen. I’d probably go with Sadler and Stripling, but you can make a case for any of them, and they are all auditioning the next two weeks.
In short, the odds that I picked the exact 25-man roster are long. But, at least you have all the candidates in one place to look at. Who would you pick for the bullpen?
Now watch the Dodgers mess me up entirely by going with 12 positions players and 13 pitchers.
Excellent point about running through walls. My three position players if Verdugo is not available for the NLDS – Beaty, Freese, and Lux.
I agree. Those are the three guys we need if Verdugo can’t make it back.
If he does, I guess they’ll have to choose between Beaty and Lux but I’m guessing we don’t see Verdugo.
I don’t know the extent of Hill’s knee injury but it didn’t look good from the 1st pitch. He was obviously showing pain even getting the first 2 outs. (his face even looked tired with huge bags under his eyes) After 3 months of rehab and working back to finally get a start and then have it go this way is heartbreaking. You just have to feel for the guy. It’s more than baseball. This is about a human being and seeing his disappointment on his face as he exited from the mound was heartbreaking to me. I hope the diagnosis is better than it looked. I get it. it’s always next man up but I feel bad for the guy.
1. Joc RF
2. Max 1B
3. Not Warren Beaty 3B
4. Belli – CF
5. Corey – SS
6. AJ – LF
7. Not Bo 2B
8. Fresh Prince C
Some Dodger news from Ken Gurnick:
Rich Hill said he will have an MRI on his knee on Monday in LA.
Without Hill as a fourth starter, Roberts said he has other options and didn’t rule out a combination of relievers.
Ross Stripling starts on Tuesday, Tony Gonsolin starts Wednesday for Rich Hill.
Justin Turner is out for this series. Dave Roberts said he expects Turner in the lineup Tuesday.
Alex Verdugo will be in LA next week, but still not doing baseball activities. “Very unlikely” Verdugo will be active for first round of postseason, Roberts said.
Muncy starts tonight at 1B, but Roberts said he will also continue playing him at 2B and is confident Muncy’s wrist won’t hinder his throwing.
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Translation for that last one, Roberts isn’t going to start Lux against left handed pitching.
I’m beginning to think that Gavin Lux just might replace Verdugo on the playoff roster.
And that’s the right move in my opinion if Verdugo is not going to be available.
These 8 guys starting today are the right 8 guys considering Verdugo and Turner are not available and there is no DH for Freese.
Gotta be careful with Turner and Freese.
Would like to see a lot more of what Joc just did, at least by the Dodgers.
Mark
Of the 4 guys you listed as “rhythm” players, Hernandez is not worth it to get him in a so called “rhythm”. Better options.
Well, you are entitled to your opinion… and you could be right. I just happen to disagree.
Good to see Cody go the other way with that hit, just trying to get the runner home from third.
Also, Joc going the other way to get his two out hit is what ignited this inning.
That bodes well… as well as Cody’s hustle on the infield hit!
Typical east coast bias – catch the lede on ESPN.com on today’s game:
“Dodgers catch Syndergaard on a bad day”.
Not Kershaw stymies Mets; not Dodgers pummel Mets; not Dodger rookies muscle up. It has to be that Syndergaard had a bad day.
Heck, they even blamed it on Thor pitching to Ramos.
Yankees lost. Magic number 15 for overall home field advantage with 13 games left.
Magic number still at 11 in October