Well, it’s always been serious, but with two weeks left in the season, it’s “Playoff Tune-up Time” which is very serious. It’s likely that Rich Hill and Alex Verdugo will not be ready for the NLDS… or maybe the NLCS and the World Series. David Freese and Justin Turner are banged up and we have no clue how healthy they will be. This is the hand the Dodgers have to play!
If Freese is on the Playoff roster, Jedd Gyorko won’t be. He’s just insurance in case Freese can’t go, but he hasn’t capitalized… as yet! Kris Negron also will not be on the roster and the same with Edwin Rios. Unless Martin or Smith is hurt, Austin Barnes will not make the Playoff Roster. Before the season started, who would have predicted that the Dodgers starting catcher in the playoffs would be Will Smith?
While we are at it, Gavin Lux could be the second-baseman and Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin could both make the team. Add in Matt Beaty and even without Alex Verdugo, the Dodgers could have 5 rookies on the playoff roster. However, right about now, it doesn’t look like Alex will have enough time to rehab and the same is true with Rich Hill. It’s too bad, but this is baseball. It’s all part of the game. Next man up!
This is not a column where I guess the playoff roster because injuries can impact it tremendously. Clayton showed last night that he is healthy. Going dairy-free was evidently the ticket to solving his back and hip inflammation. However, we know Freese is injured to some degree as well as Justin Turner. It looks like Turner will be back the middle of next week, but Freese is not healthy. We have no clue how bad it is.
Gyorko, Hernandez, and Rios will continue to get some AB’s in the event Freese and/or Turner can’t go. Gavin Lux is settling in nicely and if he continues, he’s a lock to take Vergudo’s spot. You can easily see that he’s a superior athlete. In Bellinger, Seager, CT3, and Kike, you have some superior athletes… now you can add Gavin Lux to that mix.
Even without Alex Verdugo, the outfield of Pollock in LF, Bellinger in CF and Pederson platooning with CT3 or Kike is very good. Joc actually looks better in RF than LF. I think Justin Turner will be healthy for the playoffs, but you never know, so CT3 is probably another option at 3B, along with Matt Beaty, who is rapidly becoming “That Guy” you want at-bat with RISP. Maybe Max Muncy if Freese is healthy. See, there are a lot of variables.
Is Ryu hiding an injury? It’s possible. How bad is Joe Kelly’s “low body issue?” We don’t know what it is, but right about now, all we know is that he is not pitching often… and long. Something is going on. Next man up!
This is baseball… where anything can and will happen. Steve Pearce was last year’s World Series MVP.
Rants and Raves
- Adam Ottavino blew his 7th save last night for the Yankees. He’s 2-9 in save opportunities. Chapman is 37 for 42 and Britton is 3-7. You are going to see them wear down even more in this pennant race as the Yankee starters don’t go deep into games and have a 4.63 ERA (compare that with the Dodger starters who have a 3.13 ERA).
- The Dodgers bullpen ERA just dropped to 3.87 as they are now tied for 4th with Houston… as I have predicted… to your great consternation! The #2 spot is within reach as other teams bullpens are reeling from overuse. The Yankees bullpen has pitched over 100 more innings than the Dodgers and has plummeted to #8. It appears that AF just might know a little something you don’t! I tried to tell you that the bullpen you would see at the end of the season would be different than the one you saw earlier in the year.
- Pedro Moura has a great article in The Atheltic on the Dodgers playoff options. They are amazingly adaptable. Pedro ends with this:
Little the Dodgers do is normal or conventional. But it is working. They have 96 wins. They have a host of contributing rookies. They have a path to the World Series.
DC’s 10th Inning
Friday’s Scores:
Both the Drillers and Raptors are within one win of a league championship with games scheduled today.
Ogden Raptors 5 – Idaho Falls Chukars (KC) 3
The Raptors didn’t have a sharp game in all areas but came back to pull out a win. They fell behind 3-0 in the third inning with the Chukars having just one hit. After that it was all Raptors with a 3 -”save” win. The first save came in the third inning when Jacob Cantleberry came on after 3 runs had scored with two on and one out. He recorded 2 strikeouts to strand the runners. The second save was even more dramatic. In the 4th inning Corey Merrill came out of the pen with the bases loaded and none out. He struck out the side. Nick Robertson picked up a traditional save with a perfect 9th inning. Six Raptor hurlers recorded 17 strikeouts.
The Raptors had 9 hits but were helped out by the Chukars. A run in the 4th came home on an Ismael Alcantara double. In the 5th the winnings runs came home on an error, a sacrifice fly and a ground out. An insurance run scored in the 7th on another Idaho Falls error.
Marco Hernandez and Andy Pages each had 2 hits while catcher Ramon Rodriguez had 3.
Tulsa Drillers 2 – Amarillo Sod Poodles (SD) 0
Two players with the Drillers made it all happen with a good supporting cast.
Markus Solbach got the start on the mound for the Drillers and turned in one of the best pitching outings of the season. Solbach’s outdueled Amarillo’s Kyle Lloyd with eight shutout innings. Nolan Long picked up the save after giving up a single and a walk in the 9th.
The Drillers had only 4 hits, 2 by Donovan Casey earlier in the game and 2 in the 6th inning. Jeter Downs singled with 2 outs in the 6th, stole second and went to third on a passed ball. He came home on a Connor Wong home run completing the scoring in the game.
Wong and Casey are the only two Tulsa players to hit safely in all eight playoff games. Wong is 13-30 (.433) with 3 homers and 11 RBI, while Casey is 14-31 (.452) with 3 homers and 6 RBI in the postseason.
Solbach surrendered only four hits over his eight dominant innings, the least amount of hits allowed by a Tulsa pitcher in any eight-inning start this season.
Photo courtesy of Wyliepalooza Ice Cream Emporium (my wife’s business)
ERA is a flawed way of evaluating the bullpen. Dodgers are 19 out of 30 teams in save percentage, which means the bullpen (Jansen) isn’t closing the deal. Furthermore the follow are the only guys who have relief OPS stats under .600:
Maeda small sample
Gonsolin small sample
Kolarek small sample and barely under .600
Baez
Urias
Other key guys OPS stats:
Jansen .675
Kelly .715
The others are not worth mentioning.
Did I miss some news about Freese being injured again?
If there is a way to maneuver guys positions, I’d have Rios on the playoff roster instead of Hernandez.
That’s just silly about Kike.
Of course, you aren’t hearing news about Freese.
Every stat by itself is flawed, but for years bullpen ERA and Starter ERA has been a focal point… until fans feel they have to use other metrics.
The W L Record confirms the ERA stat.
Kelly’s number is inflated due to his horrible first couple of months. Better metric would be since June 1st.
I would like to know your rationale for Rios over Hernandez on a predominantly left handed lineup, with Muncy, Bellinger, and Freese to play 1b (by far Rios best defensive position). Hernandez gold glove quality defense at multiple positions gives Roberts so many more options during games. IMO, Hernandez is needed on this team.
So BB, you would take off a right handed bat in Kike for Rios when right handed bats are scarce on this team? Kike, who is a premier defender, has 100 more games played than Rios (119 to 19). Rios has 37 total at bats in 2019. I like his average in a small sample size. I don’t see room on the post season roster for both guys and to keep Rios as a PH but no way do I consider for a minute leaving Kike off the roster.
This whole try out thing down the stretch is interesting. The other day we saw a list of all the personnel the Dodgers have, many of whom are involved with number crunching and data.
Excluding the injuries which we don’t know about, wouldn’t you think that after 149 games that there is ample data on what each player can do? How much more can be learned in 13 games about position players and pitchers? Is 2 more starts, 5 more appearances or 20 more at bats going to uncover any information they don’t already have and really change anything? Are the same relief pitchers getting innings now so the “real” post season relief pitchers can get even more rest? Far and away the guys with the most appearences out of the pen in the last 25 games are Garcia with 13, Fergy with 12, Kolarek with 11 and Sadler w/ 9. This group isn’t exactly my lead guys in the middle of a post season game ( I didn’t know Kelly may be injured but he’s finally surfaced the last couple games.) Injuries considered, I would again like to see a more predictable daily line up, one lefty, one righty for the next 13 games. I think the bullpen roles except for KJ and Baez with be based on match ups and not what inning and I’m fine with that.
Wow, that’s a lot of salt, but I bet it’s really good. Interesting, but my perception of the Dodgers lately is they seem to muddling through, yet they’re 8-3 this month. Better hope Freeze can play because Jedd has been less than impressive. Freeze can be a game changer. Justin Turner will be back next week. Probably can play right now, but the Dodgers have the luxury of letting him heal. You nailed it on the Yankee bullpen. They may wear down and collapse. At this point, got to like the chances of the Astros and A’s.
It’s hard to imagine the team replacing Freeze with Gyorko. They have Muncy to play 1B and Beaty. Both, far better choices than Gyorko. But, if Freeze is available, he should be used as a PH in the NL playoffs and DH in the WS. There is no way Rios is replacing Kike. I don’t understand BB’s beef with Kike.
Jansen has certainly lost something in the last 2 seasons and I’m sure management notices this. They’ll be looking for his replacement after this season. In the meantime…………….
I don’t spend nearly enough time studying team stats to come to any definitive conclusions about Dodger pitching stats vs. any American League teams. And the same goes for power stats, as well. Comparing teams that play in both leagues needs to factor in the difference created by the DH rule. AL teams on average should have higher ERAs, and higher power numbers. And the ballparks a team plays in (and this applies to teams in the same league) is also a factor.
So, e.g., how much of the Yankees inflated ERA is due to the DH, and how much of the Dodgers’ lower HR numbers is due to their lack of a DH?
Unless the DH and the differences in the ballparks they play in are factored in, just plain raw stats don’t tell the full story. I for one believe that the Dodgers and Yankees and the Astros are all very closely matched teams, and that just raw stats alone do not tell the whole story.
And since there is no way that the DH is going to be abolished in the near future, I just made (my previous post) an argument for the NL to adopt the DH. And to all the DH haters, I apologize. But I believe baseball needs to be played under a single set of rules. The only differences will be the varying dimensions, configurations and environmental conditions of ballparks. But those differences are both inter and intra league.
Get rid of interleague play
Dodgerrick you’re right on the last thread East Coast does not want to give Dodgers any credit saying they caught Thor on the bad night.
During his press conference, their manager said Thor pitched well, except for 2 or 3 pitches. East Coast bias is real and it is a joke.
Thor has had an ongoing baste with management over his preferred catcher. Calloway wants Ramos’s bat but Thor’s ERA is around 5. With other catchers it’s around 2.15
Seager stretching out and that is good to see. Lux seems to be heating up some. Gonsolin has shown he’s effective in MLB but May, not so much… yet. If Pollack doesn’t get hurt again he is probably in the Dodgers top 3 outfielders list, and he is swinging the bat pretty good right now. I think we have enough pitching if…the pitchers rise to the challenge. Of course you could say that about all the Dodgers. Rather big if.
Hill played catch from the outfield today including from a windup. Testing a brace on his knee. Has adjusted his leg position and was throwing without pain.
That is GREAT NEWS!
I love Hill, man, that’s a veteran guy who can visibly see the finish line just a little ahead and is doing anything and everything to make sure he crosses it with arms raised in triumph. That perseverance and tenacity has to rub off on the team.
Hello from Paso Robles kids! Here for a fam wedding but still gonna pay attention to today’s game.
Ryu needs to get his mojo back and offense goes up vs deGrom. If we pull this win off I will be much more confident re October
Beautiful area. I love San Luis Obispo County.
So do I! My daughter lives in Atascadero, and I love going there to visit.
If I was an umpire I’d definitely be a pitchers umpire.
Great game so far. Old school. 2 very good pitchers. Ryu looking pretty damn sharp. Now THAT is good news.
Welcome back Ryu!!
DeGrom picking on the rookie. You’re in the bigs now kid.
The announcers called Urias a lefty specialist. No look at his stats.
The Good? Ryu
The Bad? The bullpen
The ugly – The offense
LOL
Down 3-0, bases empty, count 2-0. Why was Bellinger swinging, and swinging hard? Did he think it would count for a 3-run HR if he hit it really far? In my opinion I think he should have been taking.
No HR, no Win.
The good, the bad and the ugly gets you where? Not popping champagne!