State of the Farm

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1. The only player I worry about losing in Rule 5 is Cristian Santana. Some rebuilding team could take a chance and stash him…

2. Very nice minor league survey of top 30 prospects AC.
   .
   The Dodgers still are are not strong on 3B position players but are capturing the market with catchers. Will be interesting to see how 19-year-old Miguel Vargas adapts to A-ball for a full season.
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   It is also interesting that Starling Heredia has keep his top 30 standing. However, he is still only 19 and missed about five weeks with injury during the 2018 season.

   1. Vargas will be extremely interesting to watch. He could rise fast like Yusniel Diaz. He is certainly not in the Juan Soto or Vlad Jr. group, but he has the opportunity to move quickly.
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      I am with you on Heredia. I know that he had that eye injury last year, but he still has not produced at Great Lakes, and he will get another shot as a 20 year old next year. He has big power, but his other skills are average at best. I do not see how Heredia is still in Top 30 and Vargas, Amaya, and Deacon Liput are not.

3. The Dodger rotation for 2019 is probably Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, Hill, and Maeda. Two of them won’t return in 2020 (Hill and Ryu), and one (Maeda) could get traded this off-season. Wood would be first up in 2019 if one of the starters were to go down but Wood is a likely trade candidate this off-season as well.
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   There is therefore a lot of opportunity for Ross Stripling, Julio Urias, Caleb Ferguson, Dennis Santana, Dustin May, Mitchell White, Tony Gonsolin, and Michael Grove to get into the Dodgers 2020 rotation.
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   If the Dodgers go with Taylor and Hernandez at second base to start the 2019 season then Lux has a great opportunity to move into the 2019 lineup by mid-season, especially if Muncy is traded. Also, if one or two outfielders are traded it would create space at second base by moving Bellinger or Taylor to CF. There is a good chance that we will see a lot of Lux by mid-season 2019.
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   If the Dodgers do not trade for a catcher and instead go with Barnes and Farmer then there is a good chance we will see Smith with the Dodgers by mid-season.
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   It could be a good time to be a top 30 Dodger prospect.

   1. Adding a catcher is a sure thing.

   2. Stewart could get back into the picture if his fastball returns to 95 and he finds a third pitch.

      1. Bums, Stewart is out of options. He either makes the 25 man roster or he is DFA. He could definitely land on some team’s roster, but I see no place for him as a Dodger on the 25 man. Zaidi waited way too long to move him, and now he has negligible trade value.

         1. So, strong spring training or bust for Stewart. Sounds like his only chance is to hang on as a reliever.

            1. I tend towards not thinking players “deserve” anything, but it would be nice to see him get a shot somewhere else (Seattle?). It seems clear he has no real path forward with us.

   3. Why do people think Muncy will be traded, or play second base for that matter. He doesn’t pass the eye test at second and his lowest monthly OPS last year was 870. The David Freese signing screams Muncy will be our first baseman with Freese giving JT his normal off days and filling in for Muncy against tough left handers. I’m about 100% sure he will be our starting first baseman next year.

      1. I would not bet against you 59 but if other teams buy into your Muncyness, wouldn’t he be better used to land a player that would better help the Dodgers such as a top reliever, another top starter, a catcher, a righty bat, or a second baseman?

      2. I think he could be traded to get a RH power bat. Puig is really a LH too so the Dodgers need more RH balance.
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         I think he can play 2B IF he can have all Spring to do get ready. He looked bad at 1B early in the season, but got better as the season wore on. I saw him make some bad plays at 2B, but I also saw potential. I think he can play 2B if you let him play. He won’t be a Gold Glover, but if he plays 2B and Cody plays 1B, the Dodgers would have 3 potential Gold Glovers in their infield.
         –
         If Bellinger is a better CF than Hernandez and Taylor, it’s not by much. I would prefer having three Gold Gloves in the infield and I also think it might help Cody offensively if he just played 1B.

4. Great read. Do you have Kasowski listed where he is for proximity to joining the club or potential impact? Not used to seeing him so highly regarded. And why do you resign Estevez to the “utility” category? Love the Monday prospect talk.

   1. I believe that Marshall Kasowski has a chance to make the roster at some point this season. If not 2019, he should be there in 2020. He has been very successful if not dominant at times in 2018, moving through three levels from low A (Great Lakes) to high A (RC), to AA (Tulsa). His curve is still developing, but if he can command that pitch he could be outstanding, I do not see Andrew & Co. signing any “name” reliever this off-season, instead signing his usual throwbacks early and waiting to see if Therrien, Sborz, Broussard, Kasowski, Spitzbarth or even Sheffield can establish themselves as a ML reliever. Maybe even Yadier Alvarez. Relievers do have an ability to move quickly through the system.
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      Omar Estevez is one of my absolute favorite prospects. I do not think he is overly special, but I did not like the disrespect (my interpretation) he received after having a quality season as a 19 year old in the California League, and being dropped from many Top 30 (if not all) Dodger prospect lists. He is back on the MLB Pipeline Top 30, but as #30. Even though he is listed as a SS, he is not really considered a solid defensive SS. His arm is better suited for 2B, so maybe I should consider him a 2B more than a utility player. In all honesty, he is not fast enough to be a CF, and his bat does not project as a corner OF, and his arm is not good enough for RF. I was trying to give him more depth than he probably has, and he is still adapting to learning 2B. He is a very hard worker, and hopefully will get the starting 2B job at Tulsa next year. Next year will determine if he is a potential ML 2B or organizational depth.

      1. Marshall is one of my many favorites. I expect all it takes is consistent control and command. His control was exceptional in 2018 after his college years. His delivery is unusual with the ball looking like it comes out of his ear. ETA -if not this year, certainly in 2020. I don’t think he will be a trade candidate.
         .

5. MBTR says Dino Ebel will be the Dodgers 3B coach. He was formerly on Mike Scioscias’s staff with the Angels and was a minor league coach for the Dodgers spending 6 years with the organization. Didn’t expect that hire, but it seems rather solid. Nice job Andrew!

   1. Looks like a good choice although I was hoping for the longest of long shots for AJ Ellis to become a Dodger coach.

   2. He reminds me of FDR’s right-hand man, Louis Howe.

6. Back to Brock Stewart. If they start him in the pen and don’t stretch him out, I think his velocity will return to 97+. He has a good slider and a 4-seam fastball may produce better results than his 2-seamer. He sucks as a starter but could be a nice piece in the pen.

   1. I assume then that you see Stewart going to camp as a potential on the 25 man? Per Eric Stephen’s Payroll Worksheet at TBLA, Stewart has used all three of his options (2016-18), and has zero remaining. If he does not make the roster out of ST, then he has to be DFA or outright released. I do not see who he beats out. He has never accepted that he is a reliever. I think he believes his best opportunity is to get released so he can latch on to a team looking for a #5 starting pitcher.

      1. In any case, reliever or starter in Spring Training, he needs to impress. His heart might be as a starter but his paycheck for now is as a reliever.

         1. Paycheck from the Dodgers.

7. In the past, he pitched well out of the pen… until last year. I would not give him a choice “You are pitching out of the pen. PERIOD!”

   1. I’m sure that would go over well with him.

      1. Who cares? He has litle value. If he doesn’t do it he will just get cut… The Dodgers have nothing to lose.

         1. If he dies, he dies.

         2. A sensitivity class should be first and foremost on your to-do list., as well as a New Year’s resolution to cut down on all the childish exclamations marks. ;0)

            1. They already sent me to sensitivity training. I beat up the instructor!!!!!

8. Enjoyable post AC! I love following our prospects and appreciate the in depth insight you and DC provide us.
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   I’m excited to see how some of the 2018 draft picks perform next year. Deacon Liput, Drew Avens, Luke Heyer, Devan Mann. James Outman ( despite the horrible baseball name, a particular favorite of mine), Dillon Paulson (I always root for USC guys), Josh McClain, Hunter Feduccia and Meaux Landry (he has to make it on the name alone) all have the opportunity to rise up the prospect rankings next year. There are several pitchers as well, Drudy, Kolek, Fisher, Rooney, Warsek and Grove come to mind.
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   AC perhaps you know, but is Morgan Cooper still with the organization. If he is, do you have any information where or if he might pitch next year?

   1. To the best of my knowledge, Morgan Cooper is still with the Dodgers. I have not seen any transaction indicating that he has been released. He is currently assigned to AZL Dodgers. We will see what happens next Spring.

   2. He did not pitch in 17 and 18 and is expected to resume throwing in February.
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      “Shoulder tendenitis” is the story.
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      I think there is more to this story…

   3. I agree that Liput is a guy to watch. Our 2b pipeline is sneaky deep at the lower levels.

9. There are rumors we are talking with Lemaheiu’s representatives. I wonder if he will sign before I learn to spell his name.
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   As much as I would support either Taylor or Keekay playing 2b “everyday,” I can see the logic in upgrading the position. There really aren’t that many places we could play an everyday player. (Muncy at 2b is the F.O.’s call but I’m sensing they don’t like it.)
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   Catcher is obviously one place, but expecting offense out of the position might be a luxury for us, especially with Smith/Ruiz on the horizon. The outfield is crowded, especially assuming Bellinger will be in CF to make room for Muncy’s bat at 1B. In fact, even if we do nothing, we still have an extra starting outfielder in Verdugo to find room for.
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   That leaves 2B as the main place we can add a bat. Go defensive/short-term at C, use what we have in the OF, expect better seasons from some of the regulars, and save Taylor/Keekay for what they do best.
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   I’ve been resisting this kind of rosterbation because I know once we settle on the best course of action a trade will come from nowhere [like the Kemp one] and make us all look foolish for pretending to know what the F.O. might be thinking.
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   Long story short: I’d be fully in favor of adding DJLM.

   1. If we didn’t participate in the “rosterbation” as you refer to it, then what fun would the Hot Stove League rumors be? By the way, DJLM would do just fine.

10. Perhaps a DJLM signing would lead to a trade of Keekay, Taylor or Muncy or 2 of the 3. There are too many redundant players on the team maybe package them for a bat or an arm.

    1. Out of those three, I think Taylor is the most likely to be traded, but I like good players so I’d rather keep all three. I don’t see Taylor and Keekay as necessarily redundant as we could use one of them as a straight insurance policy on a starter getting injured. With Seager coming back from a major surgery, we can pretty bank on this being a high priority.
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       I do think an OF has to go, as I’m having trouble fitting Joc, Kemp, Bellinger, & Puig on the roster along with Muncy, Freese, Turner, & Seager. Those eight plus the two utilitymen in paragraph 1 brings us to 10 players plus 2 catchers so we’re now at 12, with possibly one more spot but likely 13 pitchers so that’s that.
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       There’s about 1% chance those are our offensive players, but it does show how limited the space is for a player like Verdugo or even Toles (who be nice to have as a 5th OF for his speed alone).

11. All things considered, do we want Kemp on the roster next year? I’m torn, as I like him for his “veteran presence” and RH power bat; in some ways, he fits the weak side of a platoon quite well and is a ready-made DH for the handful of such games per year. On the other hand, he’s a bit one dimensional on a team that values versatility; in some ways, Freese has taken some of his usefulness away. I like Kemp but I have to think we’d be open to moving him, even for payroll relief.

12. holy crud. donaldson to braves for $23 mil.

    wow that’s a lot of green

13. Donaldson at 33 signs for 1 year at $23M. With McCann at $2MM, that is $25 MM in FA signings for the Braves, and it appears that they may be out of the Harper/Machado auction. Scott Boras and Dan Lozano are going to be on the phone with Philly admonishing them that they cannot let Atlanta get away with that, and that Philly needs to sign one of their guys (or both if they are spending crazy). Boras is going to go directly to Ted Lerner now and advise him that the Nats must sign Harper if they have any shot at getting back to the playoffs. The Braves just opened up the Harper/Machado bidding in the NL East.
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    I still think that Atlanta will be in on Brantley. If they get that RF replacement for Markakis, they are going to be very tough next year. They could dangle Swanson and some pitching to get that RF, or use Camargo out in LF and Acuna moving to RF. 3B Austin Riley will be ready 2020. CF Cristian Pache 2021 at the latest. With their pitching surplus, they can find a pretty good RF bat out there even if it is a slight overpay, and create a super utility player out of Camargo. I like what the Braves are doing.
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    It also looks like with the addition of McCann, that the combo of Flowers and McCann may rule out Realmuto for the Braves may. I still think that Atlanta is a logical landing spot with their pitching surplus, and they can always trade Flowers. But there is no longer any reason for them to pay an inter-division surcharge.

    1. Yeah, it’s like the offseason began in earnest today. Lots of ramifications as you outlined. Boras can always save face with multiple player opt-outs for Harper. He’s pretty much guaranteed to set the AAV record (in my opinion).

14. Fangraphs with a good piece on DJLM. They provide a range of potential contracts from 2y/$18m to 2y/$22m to 3y/$36m.
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    I have to admit I really like him at those numbers and am starting to think–failing a larger move–that this is smart move that could come together fairly quickly. He doesn’t have a Q.O. attached to him either.
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    If we have to move Alex Wood to free up some money, so be it. Thinking this could be a good step forward in our low-key refiguring of the roster.

    1. I think Wood has to be moved. He’s going to be very unhappy in the bullpen going into his final contract year and it would seem as though Maeda, Urias and Stripling are quite possibly all ahead of him for the 5th spot in the rotation.

15. Mark, if you add DJ lemay then the Dodgers would have 3 gold glovers in Bellinger, DJ, Seager, and would have 4 in Turner if not for Arenado. Having said that I wouldn’t be too quick to sign him. He would need to fall into our lap. If they do sign him somebody would probably have to go.

    1. When I say Gold Glovers, they may not win it, but they are in the conversation.

       1. I know this stuff doesn’t really matter but what are we thinking here: 6th or 7th place hitter in the lineup?

          Joc/Verdugo
          Seager
          Turner
          Muncy
          Puig
          Bellinger
          LeMay
          Random Catcher

          1. I would think DJLM would be in the convo to lead off.

16. Man, former Dodger prospect Oneil Cruz is now listed as 6’7″ and primarily a CF. I have to admit I’m curious to see this guy make the majors just so I can watch the show.

    1. He is also a MLB top 100 prospect.

17. I keep hearing that Arizona is aggressively shopping Goldschmidt. I’m having trouble thinking of a match for him. He’s a strange entity in that he’s a completely elite hitter who is due to test free agency after the season so you have to assume you are getting him for one year only. Teams that match up [as opposed to who would want him because who wouldn’t?] have to be: close to serious contention, fairly loaded with prospects, have an opening at 1b, willing to go all-in.

    1. Goldy is a natural for Houston. He went to HS about 30 minutes from Minute Maid. I do not know what they would trade knowing that they could wait one year and sign him as a FA. Do they want Realmuto or Syndergaard this year and Goldy next? Realmuto and Syndergaard will cost prospects, and Goldy will be cash. Home town discount?

    2. On the MLB Network and MLB radio the opinion is St. Louis will be the landing spot for Goldy with the strong possibility of an extension after the season. The Cards have a history of trading for a big name then extending them.

       There was a rumored trade with Philly but Philly insisted on Santana going back to AZ and the talks fell apart

       1. Philly needs to get Hoskins over to 1B and Santana out of there then the rest of the diamond.

       2. The Dbacks want a team to take Greinke with Goldy, and Greinke has the Cards on his no trade list.

          1. I don’t think so MJ.

             I think other teams are trying to get Arizona to add Grienke, so the other team wouldn’t have to surrender as many prospects.

             At least that’s what I read @TheAthletic

             1. Bluto

                You might be right about that.

                I only heard about the Cards.

18. Just got message from Bleacher Report that Kenley Jansen is out of surgery, and in the video they included of Jansen, it appears that he came out OK.

19. Hey Mark, when you get chance, check out an article by Travis Sawchik who writes for FiveThirtyEight. Great piece on all the “dope fiend” contracts you have been talking about for years, and there it is, bigger than crap, the D-Bags trying to dump Grienke as he is taking up 34.5 million of their 77.5 mill committed payroll this year. And to think only 3 years ago alot of people were ready to tar and feather FAZ for not going the extra year and millions more to keep Greinke. Some of the best moves are the ones you don’t make. Damn, some of the contracts in this article are nuts. Who in the hell green lighted those?

    1. “There’s a new sheriff in town.”

    2. Thought provoking article – even the comments provide ample food for thought.

20. With the reported hiring of Robert Von Scoyoc as the new hitting coach, I’m speculating that CT# may not be a trade candidate this off-season.
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    While I have no objection to either Dino Ebel or Von Scoyoc, like AC I was hoping that Haselman or Hennessey might be given a shot at a major league role. They may have and turned the opportunity down for all I know, I am a sucker for promoting from within the ranks.

21. It’s being reported by Pedro Moura of The Athletic that the Dodgers will hire Robert Van Scoyoc to be the new hitting coach. He is currently the Dbacks hitting strategist but before that he was an hitting consultant for the Dodgers. He is the one who worked with Chris Taylor on revamping his swing when he first came to the Dodger organization. He also has worked with JD Martinez and several other players.

    Sounds like the Dodgers are officially going all in on the launch angle. I personally wish they would focus more on bat to ball approach. I guess AF really digs the long ball.

    1. Everyone is all in on launch angle and have been for some time now. It’s not the problem. Daniel Murphy was one of the first in this era to preach that ground balls are out so you much get it in the air. The true problem is that you still need to be able to make contact and you must have a two strike approach. JT is a good example. He revamped his swing after listening to Murphy and Marlon Byrd. Computers tell these guys what the best attack angle and launch angle is for them to have good exit velocity and get the ball in the air.

       1. I agree that launch angle isn’t the problem. You nailed it with “the true problem is that you still need to be able to make contact and you must have a two strike approach”. That’s what I what I would like to see more of next year with the Dodger hitters.

       2. More teams are going to this hitting strategist route. Van Scoyoc has never played past JC (Cuesta College), no further than my 2nd son. Except my 2nd son hit .400 with an OBP of .435 at Pierce College. My oldest son told me that the ChiSox hired a hitting strategist that has never played. But he is smart with computer analytics. This is where hitting is going. It no longer matters if the coach has never had to step to the plate and face a pitcher throwing 98-102 with movement. “Let’s look at the swing from a computer standpoint”. The best hitting coaches could watch film and pick up a tiny adjustment, and make the change. Hitting is muscle memory, so when you get out of whack, it is hard to get back in until you can see what needs to be changed.
          .
          My son could never hit with a JDM, but he could help ML hitters and has. He also faced a KRod when he was at his best. He got his 1st ML hit off Eddie Guardado, so he knows what it is like to climb in against the best. How does Van Scoyoc know? I know the minor leaguers that were coming up with my son would not have taken coaching/instruction too well from someone who had not actually played professionally at some level.
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          I will reserve judgement, but I agree that CT3 is not going to change. He does not have the bat to ball skills that either Daniel Murphy or JT have. CT3 has one plane and does seem to adjust to the situation. The DBacks offense did worse than LAD, so whatever he was teaching it was not registering with the hitters. As I have consistently said, if there are no consequences to striking out with RISP, then there is no reason to change.
          .
          We should just go ahead and complete the circle. Bring in computers to call balls and strikes and we can all become video game launch angle hitting gurus.

          1. Really interesting AC, thanks for that.
             `
             Not having any of that anecdotal info, I thought strategists were in vogue because most hitters have their own swing coaches. So, it would more be about the mindset and strategy than about the fundamentals and mechanics.

             1. When Hawkeye brought up Turner and Murphy, I am with AC, because both Murphy and Turner are very talented hitters.

                And there are not many hitters like Turner and Murphy, who can combine both of those skills that well.

22. https://www.forbes.com/sites/howardcole/2018/11/26/8-candidates-most-likely-to-play-second-base-for-2019-dodgers/

    1. Would Lowrie accept a one-year deal?

       1. Doubtful… at this point.
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          I still like Muncy!

          1. I’m all in for giving Dozier another shot in 2019 if healthy. Perhaps he would agree to a one year deal in order to prove himself before becoming a FA at the end of the year.

             1. Just say no-doze

          2. 100 ground balls a day and 50 curves! That bat has to play somewhere.

       2. Dionysis

          Not another average hitter from the American League.

          It seems like only the really good hitters, make that transition well, like JD.

23. Check out Muncy’s defensive metrics at second.

    Muncy had better defensive metrics at second then Taylor this year, but with twice the innings at second.

    Like Mark has said for sometime, Taylor is better at shortstop, then at second.

    I also think Cody will hit better if he is playing first.

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