Is It Better To Be Lucky Than Good?

I was listening to an interview about how the Cubs were built on MLB Radio a few days ago and heard a story about how Kyle Hendricks was acquired.  First of all, I have the greatest respect for Theo Epstein and do not want to denigrate him in any way, but the story shows how sometimes it’s better to be lucky that good.  As the Cubs were being blown up, Theo was trying to trade Ryan Dempster, and in fact had reached an agreement with the Braves for Randall Delgado.  Well, Ryan Dempster did not want to go to Atlanta, so as a 5/10 player, he vetoed the deal. Next, Theo tried to trade him to LA, but according the the announcer, the Dodgers had no interest.  Finally, Dempster approved a deal to the Rangers for Hendricks.

Hendricks was not even rated as one of the Texas Rangers top 30 prospects.  In fact, Epstein really wanted Christian Villanueva (Texas #9 Prospect at the time) and Hendricks was just a throw-in on the deal.  Villanueva has since been released and signed with the Padres where he is still a low level prospect.  I have heard Cub fans or Theo fans gloat about what a good deal that was – AND IT WAS!  However, Theo readily admits he had “no idea” Hendricks would be so good and be a vital part of a World Series Championship.  The point is: Theo was true to the process.  They blew up the team, intent on accumulating all the prospects they could.  Not every deal you do works out.  Villanueva was a huge disappointment, but Hendricks wasn’t.

The point is, you keep pulling the trigger.  Andrew Friedman has built the Dodgers differently, as ownership would not afford him the luxury of blowing up the team.  But, he has stayed true to the process.  That process is to build the farm, acquire fresh blood, plug in a few vets by free agency and trading from surplus, while  finding value on the bonepile, like Dayton, Fields, Taylor, Toles, Eibner and several others.

The point is that you never know in baseball what might happen with players you acquire.  The Dodgers traded Zach Lee for Chris Taylor who looked like a prototypical AAAA Utilityman last year, but who remade his swing and has shown Justin Turneresque propensities.  Brett Eibner and Andrew Toles were acquired by Andrew Friedman for nothing or next to nothing and fans openly mocked him.  When asked if he knew how good  Kyle Hendricks would become, Theo said he had no clue.  I’m sure that Andrew Friedman had no clue either as to how good Taylor, Toles or Eibner might be… and I’m not saying they are all that, but they have potential.

You just keep trying and sometimes you just get lucky!  I have no idea if Chris Taylor is just a flash in the pan or not.  Well, actually, I do:  His swing looks to be the real thing.  He swings that bat with such authority like a buggy whip that I think he is the real deal.  Maybe FAZ got lucky on Toles and Taylor and maybe even Eibner, but that’s why you keep churning the players.  You have to kiss a lot of frogs to find the princes.

Has FAZ traded away a player who they would love to have back?

  • Kemp?  No!
  • Kendrick?  No!
  • Gordon?  Hell, No!
  • Heaney?  The jury is out!
  • Cotton? We have the #1 pen in the league.  When can he pitch?
  • Montas?  Doubtful!
  • Holmes?  Sorry!
  • Lee?  What?
  • De Leon?  Does he still play?
  • Peraza?  Are you crazy?
  • Schebler?  Another 5th OF?
  • Chris Reed?  Please Stop!
  • Olivera?  Get out!

Rants & Raves

  • When was the last time Clayton  Kershaw had a counterpart as good as Alex Wood (5-0, 1.88 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)?  Greinke?
  • It was an ugly lineup last night – maybe that’s what it takes to win!
  • Ross Stripling has my utmost respect after trying to drill Stanton.
  • Donnie Baseball should go back to Indiana.
  • Chris Hatcher is maddening.  Smokes Stanton and implodes!

Minor League Overview

  • It was one of those nights at El Paso as OKC lost 16-8.  Everyone got bombed.  Dayton’s ERA is 40.50. Willie Calhoun did hit his 8th HR and Verdugo was 3-5.  Thompson was 2-4 and is creeping up.  As advertised, Calhoun is hitting.
  • Tulsa was rained out.
  • Rancho won 5-3 as Logan Forsythe was 1-1 with 3 walks, while playing 3B.  Smith played 2B and was 2-4.  Maeda went 4, allowed 6 hits and have up 1 ER.
  • GL won 17-8 and 2-1 at Ft. Wayne.  Lux was 3-5 in game 1 as the Loons had 25 hits.  Sheffield went 4.2 with 7 hits and 4 runs.

This article has 50 Comments

  1. I’d have to say the Heaney for Kendrick deal would be the one FAZ would like to reel back in.

    1. Rudy, while I think Heaney can be real good, who would have played 2B in 2015? The Dodgers still do not have an obvious pipeline at 2B. Plus, can you imagine the FAZ bashers with trading for another injury prone pitcher?

    2. Rudy

      Friedman actually said that that is the deal that he would have probably done, differently.

      But when Friedman first came to the team, he didn’t know a lot of our players that well, so I think he listened to much to Mattingly, when he first came, to the team.

      But he eventually made an important move, and he got rid of Mattingly.

      1. Mark

        I think that came more from Mattingly, not Friedman.

        Remember they wanted grinders, to go farther into the post season.

        And actually Gordon had a decent season, before that trade, but I was glad he was traded.

  2. Traders don’t look back very often–only to try to improve the next trade.

    FAZ would probably say they needed Kendrick to fill a hole at 2nd and that was the price they needed to pay.

    Not that I’d mind having Heany on my staff.

  3. Matttingly is a weenie. Mark makes a good point about the suits: A rebuild without a blowup. It takes a ton of $, some smarts, and mostly, luck. And an understanding ownership. But still, no ring. So, in today’s world, it is still a failure. It’s almost like Boys of Summer–Lite. Knocking on the door, and finally let in. Will 2017 be 1955? Make the Dodgers great again? In spite of all the great Brooklyn teams of the ’40’s and ’50’s, history only remembers 1955. I hope this team gets more than a best selling book. Go Cardinals.

  4. I just checked out Taylor: From Virginia. Went to U of Va. Went to the college world series. Drafted by Mariners in 6th round. Hit 300+ in high A. Fall league MVP. Hit well in AAA. Invited to Spring Training. In ST, got hit by a pitch and broke his wrist. I love college guys, especially major baseball colleges. I think he can play the game. Played some outfield in college, but mostly SS.

  5. Still sticking to what you said in the last post, Mark. We just need a 100% healthy A-gon and Forsythe. The rest will take care of itself. Turner being out for a few weeks may be a blessing in that Forsythe can play his way back into a groove. He is going to be a key part of our season going forward, we forget how much of a grinder he is. Loved last night with the skirmish. And you know what, I was a Donnie baseball fan, but there is something about Dave Roberts that is just gritty. He comes off to the media as an approachable and nice guy, but being an ex player who had to earn his bones in the league is a plus plus in the clubhouse. Hope he stays for a long time.

  6. Actually the story is that Ned agreed to trade Zach Lee and then backed out on the deal.

  7. Mark: “Andrew Friedman has built the Dodgers differently, as ownership would not afford him the luxury of blowing up the team. But, he has stayed true to the process. That process is to build the farm, acquire fresh blood, plug in a few vets by free agency and trading from surplus, while finding value on the bonepile, like Dayton, Fields, Taylor, Toles, Eibner and several others.”
    .
    AMEN to that! The bonepile is really stacking up, add Wood, Grandal, Avilan, Gutierrez, Segedin and Libertore to the pile. Really an amazing job when you think about it. FAZ isn’t perfect, but they are the best front office the Dodgers have had in a long, long time.
    .
    We are two and half years into the FAZ regime and things look like they will just keep getting better. Something not discussed here much is the COMPLETE makeover of the scouting, coaching and training staffs by FAZ. Seems like the whole organizational culture is changing for the better. As Mark noted, FAZ is sometimes mocked for signing “nobodies” from the waiver wires and assigning them to the Camelback Ranch baseball player factory. What we are starting to see is “revamped” swings (Taylor) and different arm slots (Wood). Somebody must be doing something right, deep in the bowels of the FAZnation.
    .
    I guess a picture is worth a thousand words, look at all the players currently on the 25 man roster making $3M or less. It is a testament to to the “Process” and a sign of the coming Juggernaut.
    .
    http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/payroll/

  8. It’s hard to be lucky with bad pitching. Walt Alston. Good is, well, good. Lucky is good. Good and lucky….devine. You know these math problems we have to do to coment are hard for some of us.

  9. Sure, there’s often luck involved. The Dodgers’ best hitter (Turner) was picked up by the previous regime as a DFA from the Mets for $1MM to be a utility INF. The Dodgers best reliever was a failed catcher (Jansen) – one of their top set-up guys a failed 3B (Baez). Everyone has luck and there is always more than one way to skin a cat. (the Jansen and Baez moves were also made by the prior regime.)

    To B-17 – the Boys of Summer lite? Really? That team had 4 Hall of Famers, another guy who should be there (Hodges) and 2 pitchers who would be there if not for non-baseball factors (Erskine misused while injured) and one who would be but for alcoholism (Newcombe).

    1. Did everyone see that Mattingly was upset, because Corey swung at a pitch, on a 3 zero count, because we had a five run lead, in the seventh in inning?

      We owed the Marlins a pay back, for sweeping us at home, last year.

      And the way they won that last game in that series last year, was bad enough, because that cheater Gordon, got the game winning hit, and then he went out on his suspension, a minute, after that game, was over.

      1. If I were the Dodgers I would have drilled Dee in the ribs. His waiting until after the Dodgers series to take his suspension never sat well with me and I was a Dee supporter.

  10. Holmes and DeLeon both will, IMO,5 be good MLB pitchers. As far as DeLeon… he’s done as much for his team as the guy he was traded for has done for us.

    1. Forsythe has 54 plate appearances and is hitting .295 with a .407 OB% while Jose De Leon finally came off the DL and has now pitched 8 innings this year with a 2.16 ERA and 12 K’s.

      Holmes is at AA and appears to still be regressing with a 5.29 ERA.

      I was never impressed with Holmes… much like I felt about Zach Lee, but I really used to like De Leon. I cooled on him as a starter before he was traded. He has the arm… and he will be 25 soon. He should be ready.

    2. I do not think Holmes will be. He was regressing at RC last year, and was summarily passed over by non prospects (at the time), Trevor Oaks, and Brock Stewart. The A’s do not know what to do with him; start or relieve. He has not done well at either. IMO, Holmes’ ceiling is as a long reliever. I do think De Leon will be a good mid to back of the rotation starter. I saw De Leon pitch one of the most dominating games when he was with RC against Lancaster. It was just outstanding. But the Dodgers needed 2B, and they dealt from surplus. The Dodgers have several mid to back of the rotation types still in the organization. But I do agree with you that De Leon will have a good career as a MLB starting pitcher. Trades are allowed to help both teams.

  11. I’m not so sure Taylor is a “flash in the pan”. Nobody knows as Mark said. Zach Lee was at one time our #1 prospect so how has tat trade panned out ?
    As far as “flash in the pans” are concerned there have been many many of those but the 1st on who comes to mind was an OF for the old Milwaukee Braves by the name of Bob(Hurricane) Hazel.
    Sixty years ago he had in 155 PA a .403 BA; .477 OBP; .643 Slug pct; 1.126 OPS. He also finished 4th in the ROY. Two years later I believe he was out of baseball.

  12. I do believe we have a very good manager and coaches. I think our scouts are doing well because our drafts have not been a bust. I know it is early. It looks like the farms kids are winning more games than they lose. All in all things look pretty good. All you can ask for is that every year you are competitive with a chance to win it all.

  13. While Theo acknowledges that getting Kyle Hendricks was lucky, I am not at all certain that Chris Taylor was luck at that level. I think (and it is only conjecture), that Chris Taylor was targeted. Why? Because he is exactly the type of player that Andrew looks for, and exactly the type of player that Billy Beane taught Farhan to look for. A multi-dimensional player with speed that has a lot of potential upside. Where the luck seems to have come in, is how good Taylor has conceivably become so fast. Maybe someone should interview Taylor to see how he decided to revamp his swing, and who was contributory. As Box pointed out, the entire developmental side of the organization has been revamped. The minor league coaching staff is more instructional than game coaching. Drew Saylor and his staff at RC is emblematic.
    .
    I have already said enough about how I feel about Alex Wood, and how I have felt since the Dodgers acquired (stole) him from Atlanta. But it is amazing how many of the so-called Dodger pundits are now saying how they knew how good Alex would be if he only got a chance. No. The so-called experts and most fans only remembered Game 3 of the 2015 NLDS, where admittedly he pitched horribly. We now know he was hurt, and his arm slot dropped making consistent command near impossible. I have the utmost respect for Dodgerrick, and he and I have crossed swords a number of times on Alex Wood. While I know he is not on the Alex Wood fan list, he has at least acknowledged that Wood has worked hard to raise his arm level and has improved.
    .
    I said at the beginning of the year, that I would wait until the end of the season to finally judge the Dee Gordon trade. I still believe that we need the full year to make any judgement. While no blockbuster players have emerged, it does not look like the Dodgers were fleeced like so many said they were. But it is comical to read how so many cannot stand Grandal because of his use of PEDs, but give Gordon a pass.
    .
    Jharel Cotton was never going to be in the rotation for LAD. The Dodgers tried to make him a reliever last year at AAA and it did not work out, so he went back in the rotation. Jharel Cotton will get more chances, and he will pitch well in some games, and not so well in many others. He is truly a back of the rotation starter, that should have a nice career, but he will not be a difference maker. I am not sure that Grant Holmes will make it as a mid-rotation pitcher. He fell out of favor with the Dodgers, and seems to be doing the same with the A’s. Frankie Montas was who Beane wanted. I think Beane believes that Montas is the reincarnation of Jason Isringhausen, one of his all-time favorites. He has been looking for that hard throwing high-leverage closer that he could control for many years. While Reddick did not perform for the Dodgers, I do not think the Astros want to get rid of him. And if Hill’s blister issues can be resolved, the Dodgers will get the best out of that deal as well. And I do not believe that the Dodgers would have been able to sign him if he had not finished the year with them last year. He would probably be in the Yankees rotation. I know there are many who wishes he was there. Not me.
    .
    While some of FAZ’s FA signings can be questioned (and are), I believe that there was a purpose behind the selection. They just have not worked out as well as they may have hoped for. So many FA signings have not borne out as well as the teams envisioned, so FAZ is not alone here. So while they did not sign Jon Lester or Max Scherzer, they also did not sign Jason Heyward, or Alex Gordon, or Jordan Zimmerman, or David Price, or Justin Upton. I know that it is hard to believe, but not everybody wants to come to LA, so maybe it is best to build from within. This is where FAZ has excelled. Now let’s see if they can leverage some of that farm surplus to get that difference maker.

    1. AC:
      As far as Josh Reddick not performing for us last year let’s remember he was only here for what, 2 months. He was absolutely horrible is August (.161 BA)(.396 OPS). However it was the first time he was in the NL and had to perform against most pitchers he had never seen and perhaps he tried too hard to impress his new teammates.
      However in Sept something good happened(.382 BA)(.961 OPS). In the end he hit .258 which was better than 1/2 the team. Just trying to be fair.

      1. Richie, I was very supportive of the trade, and was supportive of Reddick (and still am). I was trying to make the point that even though he was not very good for the Dodgers (at least not what they were hoping for), FAZ had a vision and Reddick was more talented than he showed. I understood the logic of getting a LH hitting OF, because most of the teams that were playing for a playoff spot were RHP dominant. They could not count of Ethier (injury) or Toles (unknown). It was a good foundational thought for the trade, it just did not pan out. And how he is playing for the Astros is showing that he is a better player than how he performed for LA. FAZ was blasted for the trade, but it did not come from me. But I also recognize that he did not perform as was expected.

      2. And let’s not forget how many times he got picked off base. The guy choked.

  14. AC

    I am surprised, we haven’t heard from you yet!

    But that is a good sign, because that shows, you do have a life..

    But I assume you are pretty happy today, after Wood pitched, another good game.

    I heard the broadcasters say a pretty good stat about Wood, after he went out of the game, last night.

    And I thought of you, when I heard that Wood now, has a lower ERA, then Kershaw, has,

    1. I go out on Saturdays to have coffee with some clients/friends who are also huge baseball fans. They are former Giants farmhands so we have a lot of “fun” discussions. I also have a tendency to be wordy, so it takes me a while to compose what I want to say. But yes I am happy that Wood pitched so well. I am not delusional, and I know he will come back down to earth. And I do not expect or believe that he will have an ERA below Clayton at the end of the season. But hopefully he will continue long enough to where we will be able to call him All-Star Alex Wood.

  15. I am hoping Chris Taylor turns out to be the next Justin Turner. JT was let go by the Mets and signed by the Dodgers to be a utility guy. When he came to the Dodgers, nobody thought of him as anything other than a guy who could fill in for infielders who needed a day off. Now, he’s the best third baseman in the NL after Kris Bryant. Who says the same thing can’t happen with Chris Taylor. Taylor was a prospect with the Mariners. He didn’t pan out for them but then he reworked his swing. He won the job out of Spring training. Sometimes we don’t give much credit to results in Spring training but in this case, his performance did, in fact, indicate Chris Taylor has skills to be a solid player in the major leagues.

  16. Luck. Skill. Preparation. Don’t they all kind of go together?

    Whatever it is, the great ones always have that combination, ala Jerry West. Do Friedman/Zaidi have it? Let’s hope to god they d!

  17. Knights27
    I agree with you. Taylor just needs to find a position. He will if he keeps hitting. He seems a little vulnerable to the knee high fastball and the fastball on the inside at the belt. But he is adjusting. Three hits last night with a home run. I saw him play for the Mariners. In 2014 he hit 287 the Mariners. In 2015 he hit 170. He got bigger and stronger this winter and changed his swing.

    1. Al, Chris Taylor has a position…super utility player. He will be the Dodgers Ben Zobrist, something they were hoping for from Kike’. IMO, Chris has overtaken Kike’ in that role, both offensively and defensively. That is not a knock on Kike’, but an endorsement of Taylor. Even as a super-utility he will get 300+ AB.

      1. Agreed and he can hit leadoff while doing so if management figures it out.

  18. Speaking of desire to play for the Dodgers, I have often wondered what effect having by far the highest state income tax in the country (13%) has on players (and their agents).

  19. Prediction of Harpers cost? A lot.
    ^
    Dodgers, Phils, Yanks and Nats mentioned.

      1. I would love to have Harper, but not at that price. Those huge free agent contracts almost never work out.

      2. I don’t see anyway he gets $500,000,000 but he’s a better ball player than Stanton.

  20. I think most GM’s are not going to give Harper $400 Million, let alone $500 Million. I do think he will get $325 to $350 Million. If I were FAZ, I would have to think hard about that.

    For the record, I often look at players when they are young and just “Know” that they are different: Trout, Harper, Betts, Seager and Bellinger come to mind. When I had watched Justin Turner in his first year with the Dodgers , I just felt that he was the real deal. I knew he wasn’t a superstar, but I thought he would be a really good player. I must confess I feel the same way about Chris Taylor. When the Dodgers first acquired him, I was not impressed. At the start of Spring Training, he did look different and better, but I wasn’t convinced. Then I watched him 3 or 4 games at OKC and saw the evolution continue.

    Now that I have seen him for a few weeks, I think he is the real deal. I think he’s a regular… maybe better than Forsythe. That bat speed is just amazing! While not a superstar, I believe he will be an All-Star at times.

  21. Send the 20 year old back until he can throw a strike. 3 straight lefties with hits. I know he has pitched better than kershaw etc. at the same age. Not impressed stunk up the playoffs last year with no command. Terrible last game terrible tonight. I realize patience is needed so do it at okl until he is throwing better. Sorry was hoping dodgers could sweep this pathetic team but not with bad pitching because our offense is not the most potent. It will take a bunch tonight.

    1. He stunk up the playoffs? You do realize he pretty much didn’t pitch the entire month of September?

  22. The kid has nothing tonight and they’ve gotten three hits flinging their bat at the ball too.

    Joc has been plain awful.

    1. Hawkeye

      That is what our players need to do more often, with two strikes, and runners in scoring position.

      The Giants do that a lot too.

      1. Was running a suicide squeeze up 7 runs a crime against the baseball gods?

  23. I’m glad no one took the bait from the obscene phone caller… I s WonderDog alive n well???

  24. The dodgers need to send Urias and joc down. This is the big leagues where performance counts. Right now they are just not performing. I would rather see Hernandez in center full time as joc. We have depth in the rotation so use it.

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