Why Trends matter and why they are not cherry-picking
As bad as the Dodgers are playing right now (before Monday), they are still in the Divisional driver’s seat. They now have an 8.0 game lead over San Diego with 36 to play. So why are many fans down (not panicking) with the Dodgers? Trends. It is not cherry-picking stats. It is looking at how the team is playing lately and postulating future results. Trends are measured in every facet of our lives. From sports, to health, to finance, to education…Of course you can pick and choose a specific trend to justify a position. But when multiple trends tend to tip the scales downward or upward, sometimes you need to pull the ostrich head out of the ground and look at what is happening.
Trends are important to foster adjustments to move a downward trend into an upward trend. In a sports world, teams that ignore the trends, and not look for adjustments may live to regret it.
With respect to the Dodgers, I do not care that they are the 2-time defending champion as it relates to THIS year. How do you fix how they are playing now? Some will say, do nothing. They are the 2-time defending champion and they will win when it counts.
I can understand that take when it comes to pitching. The pitching is going to get better. Tyler Glasnow will be back after one more rehab start. Ohtani is working on getting back. Roki Sasaki and Eric Lauer will be moved to the bullpen.
We have no idea how inured Justin Wrobleski is, but he will not be returning to the rotation when (if) he gets back. The current injury report has him returning in September. Are Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone legit considerations for a post-season bullpen role? Emmet Sheehan? All three should get work and more length this week.
OKC will be playing in Sugar Land this week, home of the worst offense in the PCL. So, the pitchers could impress this week.
But the trends that are troubling are more on the run production side. My starting point is the All-Star break. Yes, arbitrary, and if anyone disagrees, respectfully, please do the research and present your own analysis.
Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers have faced 9 different teams. 6 of the teams had a > .500 winning percentage. 3 of the teams had a < .500 winning percentage. The Dodgers record against the > .500 teams was 6-13. Their record against teams with < .500 is 7-2. They are beating teams they should, but are .462 against their potential future playoff contenders.
Since the All-Star break, before Monday’s game, the Dodgers were 13-15, ranking them tied for 16th best record.
Before Monday night’s game the Dodgers had not scored more than 9 runs since the Break. They have scored 116 runs since the Break, averaging 4.14 runs/game. In that same time, they have allowed 123 runs. That gives them a -7 run differential. Monday’s game didn’t quite make up the difference.
The intent is to analyze trends and try to make adjustments. If things are not going well, how to improve. If they are going well, how to at least maintain. Maybe Monday’s game turns things around for the Dodgers. It certainly does not hurt.
Freddie breaks out of his 18 game XBH drought, with two opposite field doubles.
Snell had 6 excellent innings in Coors. Alex Vesia and Evan Phillips each had good 1.0 IP relief outings.
After playing flimsy defense lately, Tommy Edman and Mookie Betts turned things around with two outstanding defensive plays.
OTOH, the corner outfielders and the closer are flat out not performing. The two OF are not hitting or playing anything that resembles adequate defense. Edwin Díaz coming in and giving up 3 runs and 4 hits in the 9th is just not acceptable.
Doc has gone on record and said that performance will dictate playing time. None of Tucker, Teo, or Díaz have options. They cannot just be sent down to MiLB. I 100% agree with Eric Karros that Kyle Tucker needs to come down with back spasms and head to Arizona for a total reset. Right now, I do not think Tucker would fight it. It would not be the first time a mysterious ailment has been “found”. I may be wrong, but I think Wrobo has that mysterious arm fatigue more than forearm inflammation.
Can the Dodgers put Díaz back on the IL and let him work things out in Arizona? Right now, he cannot be counted on in low leverage or high leverage situations. Command is just not there. Keep sending him out there and maybe something will click.
I am not making excuses for Tucker, who has played horrendously all year (offensively and defensively), but the Dodgers did not do him any favors by offering him an irresponsible contract (my word and opinion). There is no possibility that Tucker can live up to that contract. No possibility. He is now in deep quicksand, and it is pulling him under. He is fighting it. Can the Dodgers throw him a lifeline and pull him up and hide him? He is making $60MM a year, so nobody is feeling sorry for him. But it is up to him to turn it around.
Regardless, the team has to continue to support Tucker. I am not predicting it, but he is someone who could get hot at the right time (October). He is not going anywhere. Unless he is truly injured, he will be on the playoff roster. If he has a great October, the 0-24 and dropped fly ball will be forgotten.
Build on Monday's game and start an upward trend.
DSL Cle Mendoza 9 – DSL LAD Mega 2
17-year-old LHP Miguel Herrera had his best outing of the year. He completed 4.0 scoreless innings. He allowed 3 hits, walked 4, and struck out 3.
RF Helvin Mendoza hit a solo HR (4) in the 4th inning. Mendoza is a 17-year-old OF who is having a fantastic first professional season. He is slashing .329/.495/.470/.965.
The 2nd run was unearned. C Jose Rivas doubled (4) and moved to 3rd on a groundout. Rivas scored on a passed ball.
· Helvin Mendoza – 2-3, 1 BB, 1 run, 1 RBI, HR (4)
· Jose Rivas – 2-4, 1 run, double (4)
· Doubles – Ezequiel Aparicio (4), Luis Tovar (7)
DSL Royals Fortuna 8 – DSL LAD Bautista 2 – 7 innings
17-year-old RHP Delio Centeno had his best outing throwing 2.2 scoreless IP, 3 hits, 4 BB, 2 K. RHP Emmanuel De La Rosa followed Centeno and threw 2.1 scoreless innings. He allowed 2 hits, 0 BB, and 2 K.
DSL LAD Bautista scored a run in the opening frame. CF Rubel Arias drew a leadoff BB. SS Ezequiel Melburne singled. A WP moved both runners up. Arias scored on a groundout.
Two Bautista pitchers coughed up 8 runs in the 6th, on 7 hits, and 3 BB.
Bautista scored a run in the 7th on a BB, and 3 WP.
Melburne and LF Jeibert Rondon were the only Bautista batters with a hit, both singles.
Discussion (112)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Excellent "State of the Dodgers" report, Jeff. I especially like the description of Tucker's contract as "irresponsible." Tucker is, or maybe was, a good player--but not a $60 million AAV player. I wonder what the Mets and other suitors were offering. I am completely in favor of Tucker straining an oblique so we might see what JdP or Sirota could do. But Alek Thomas still seems like the most likely candidate for promotion. But JdP or Sirota would sure be fun. Remember when Corey Seager stepped in and kicked ass? Another debut like that would be nice. And yes, even with Diaz's struggles, the pitching should be fine. We should have Glasnow and Shohei back soon to join Yamamoto, Snell and Skubal. It seems inevitable that Sasaki will shift to the pen....so Doc should do it now to get him acclimated to the role. Lauer can round out the six-man rotation. (From a purely sentimental standpoint, it would be sweet if Bobby Miller could work his way back to the majors.) As for the offense, well, the return of Will Smith should help. For some reason, I'm a bit more optimistic about the streaky Teo than Tucker. It's kind of mindboggling. The Dodgers sign an alleged superstar for $60 million a year--and now we fans are hoping for a way to keep him out of the lineup.
Going to Colorado was just what the Dodgers needed. Add in a soft tossing RH pitcher to unleash the LH power bats.
There's not much better on a baseball field than watching Max Muncy unload on a center cut fastball. Max has had a excellent season. I believe he has become the true leader on this team. He has to be the best trade AF has made while with the Dodgers. Add to that the salaries paid to Max in his Dodger career have been the best value in the current MLB. On the other hand.....
.... Diaz, Tucker, and Teoscar. I keep watching and waiting for some type of consistent production from this group. As we all have!
A Colorado position player, Troy Johnston, had a shutdown inning last night. Diaz, not so much. Dump the trumpets until he gets his shit together.
Excellent article Jeff! I believe most reading here have similar feelings about the current state of the Dodgers play.
Mark, interesting feedback from your Dodger insider. I will be curious how things play out for the rest of the season and in the offseason.
Carry on.
AVF may have nailed it:
Is it possible that Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Tucker, and Edwin Diaz may be left off the Playoff Roster?
If the playoffs started tomorrow... YES! There is still time, but "death spirals" are hard to stop.
DePaula has to be put on the 40-man roster in the offseason, so I still think it is possible he gets a call-up.
Yes, I know AF has never done that. He has also never had two corner outfielders that suck such immense amounts of pondwater!
I'd rather trust DePaula and Thomas than those two slackers.
Maybe you have heard about the flooding in Indiana. This is about a mile from my house. Fortunately, we are on a hill and don't even have a sump pump. The White River crested at 35 feet, which was the highest since 1913, but it would have taken another 40 feet to get us. (I can't post the pic. I have to get that fixed).
Diaz looks like a broken man. I think Doc did the Dodgers a big favor by sending him out to the mound last night. If that doesn’t convince them he needs to go back on the il , what will it take?
Kyle Tucker also has that “broken “ look. I don’t believe he’s done, not by a long shot. But, he needs a reset of some sort. So if he mysteriously goes on the il, who plays right field? Call ? Kike? Would their production be any better? Let’s face it, except for Rojas the bench is weak. So benching Tucker, or benching Teo, what’s the alternative? Is there a spark in the minors? Won’t know until they try. Edman is great. But he’s a utility guy, and a dang good one! But with a weakened bench he’s forced into being the second baseman on a regular basis. Maybe it’s time to call up Alex Thomas. Can’t be any worse than Teo or Tucker.
Thank you Jeff for perfectly encapsulating what I’ve been thinking for weeks if not months.
I do still remain a bit unconvinced the pitching will carry this team through to a possible 7 game World Series. It might be even more stressed by a Wild Card round, but maybe the addition of Glasnow, Snell and Skubal will allow the team to keep playing until November.
At the moment it feels like winning low scoring games against the better clubs will be necessary going forward. The offensive schneid has gone on too long. And beating up on a last place club doesn’t convince me. Beat up the Braves and maybe I’ll believe.
Ok, right now Tucker is a bust with NO upside in sight. What do the Dodgers do with him and his 180 million salary for the next three years going forward ? He is blocking potential highly regarded prospects? The Dodgers are really in a bind with NO apparent solution. He can't play defense and his offensive numbers are offensive. AF/BG rush to be pigs will haunt their legacy with this signing.For reference sake , Kyle Tucker's WAR is .01 and OPS+ of 93, 100 being league average. His OPS .693.
I did not see the end of last night's game. Anyone want to comment what is wrong with Diaz? Is it his slider,fastball velocity or location of both?
Man yall cant even enjoy the wins around here anymore....
You all have been very very spoiled.
It's almost hard to believe that Scott/Conforto has morphed into Diaz/Tucker.
Maybe we should grow our own closers and left fielders.
There is a lot to unpack here... but I agree with every word. This team is a train wreck, and the level of incompetence in RF and LF is contagious to the rest of the team ("He gets paid $60 million for this shit?"). Teoscar and Tucker can't hit and can't field. I got a call last night from someone I can't even mention, and he told me a few things. I am not going to use his words, because that might help identify him.
People close to the situation know things.... Like back in the steroid era. Everyone knew. No one spoke of it. It was not Tony Jackson whom I talked to - just to get that out of the way. But he wrote a great piece last week, called "The Fraternity I Never Joined." I hope he doesn't mind my publishing it. I subscribe to it on Substack, and maybe you might want to as well.
Here it is in the next three comments:
At this stage of the season I would rather see Bobby Miller than Edwin Diaz. Another clunker by Diaz, luckily the Dodgers were ahead comfortably before he entered. But still had to get up Scott and warm up. Tucker and Diaz both huge, huge disappontments so far. But as Jeff said: Both can turn it around with a great October and all is forgotten.