2020 is a critical year for LAD. That window is closing a bit, and what they do to prepare for 2020 will dictate whether they open it a bit more or nail it shut. Perhaps the team does not spend smart, but they are not cheap. After getting under the CBT for 2018, they went back over in 2019. Because of vesting bonuses, Clayton Kershaw ($3MM) and Kenta Maeda ($5.4), the Dodgers hit $209.8MM in AAV, taking them $3.8MM past the CBT. The team will lose a lot of salary for 2020, but they will be approaching the CBT again in 2020. Will they let the CBT be a deterrent to make the team better?
Currently the Dodgers have 6 players with signed contracts going into the season totaling an AAV of $86.5MM:
- Clayton Kershaw – $31MM
- Kenley Jansen – $16MM
- Justin Turner – $16MM
- AJ Pollock – $12MM
- Joe Kelly – $8.333MM
- Kenta Maeda – $3.125MM
Per MLB Trade Rumors, currently the Dodgers have 12 players with salary arbitration, projected to be $53MM:
- Pedro Baez – $3.3MM (3rd year)
- Kike’ Hernandez – $5.5MM (3rd year)
- Joc Pederson – $8.5MM (3rd year)
- Yimi Garcia – $1.1MM (3rd year – Super 2 so has a 4th year)
- Chris Taylor – $5.0MM (2nd year)
- Corey Seager – $7.1MM (2nd year)
- Ross Stripling – $2.3MM (1st year)
- Austin Barnes – $1.3MM (1st year)
- Scott Alexander – $1.0MM (1st year)
- Max Muncy – $4.6MM (1st year)
- Cody Bellinger – $11.6MM (1st year)
- Julio Urias – $1.7MM (1st year)
That is a $30.6MM increase over their 2019 salaries. There is a discrepancy with Urias. While MLB Trade Rumors has him eligible for arbitration in 2020, both Cots and Baseball Reference shows that he is not eligible until 2021. But for this exercise, I will leave him as arbitration eligible.
That is 18 Dodgers with either guaranteed contracts or projected arbitration settlements totaling $139.5MM. With player benefits projected to be $15.0MM, the Dodger AAV before the rest of the roster is determined sits at approximately $154.5MM. The 2020 CBT is at $208MM. That gives the Dodgers about $53.5MM of additional spending without exceeding the CBT.
With rosters expanding to 26 for 2020, that leaves 8 still to be included. With some certainties and probables these should/could include:
- Walker Buehler
- Alex Verdugo
- Will Smith
- Matt Beaty
- Gavin Lux
- Caleb Ferguson
- Dustin May
- Tony Gonsolin
Others that will be considered:
- Adam Kolarek
- Dylan Floro
- Edwin Rios
What Next?
1.Many of the above will not be on the roster come March 26 (opening day against the Giants), but projecting who those will be, will be all over the map by many. Let’s assume that the final roster additions will cost $3.5MM, leaving $50MM for increase in salaries before reaching the CBT. That leaves room for at least one elite FA, and my choice would be Gerrit Cole. Pitchers like Gerrit Cole do not become available all that often, but when they do, the Billionaire Boys Club needs to take advantage. If Cole wants to go to NYY (his childhood favorite team), you know they will be very active in their pursuit. He grew up in LAA’s backyard, and they need pitching badly, so they will be in pursuit. I also believe that San Diego will go hard after him. They need that signature pitcher before MacKenzie Gore makes it to the Show, and they have shown that they are not afraid to spend. Houston has said that they may not be able to re-sign him, but there is going to be more than a couple of high roller teams that will be players for Cole. The problem will be that Cole is a Scott Boras client and he will probably not sign early. It is entirely possible that some team will wait too long on Cole and lose out on others. Make Cole an offer he cannot refuse, but the Dodgers should not be outbid. With Cole and Buehler at the top of the rotation, that will be better than any top duo including Scherzer and Strasburg.
2. Even with the 26 player roster, the max roster will be 28 in September. This will make it even more important for teams to have versatile players that can play multiple positions. That could increase the value of Kike’ Hernandez or CT3. With Matt Beaty showing that he is definitely a ML player, Kike’ or CT3 can become available. Do the Dodgers need both? Probably not, and that would free up at least $5MM.
3. Ross Stripling is absolutely a trade candidate and for his sake, I hope he is moved. Just as was Alex Wood, Ross Stripling is a favorite of mine. Wood did not make sense to hold on to, and neither does Ross. They both need to go to a team where they have a chance to be successful starting pitchers. Ross is projected to earn $2.3MM in arbitration. What level of player/prospect would be returned for Ross?
4. It is not arguable that both 2019 FA did not earn their salaries. Both Kelly and Pollock should be considered trade candidates, but how much trade value will they bring in return. I am not as high on AJ as 59Arrow is, but I am not as down on him as many others are. He is injury prone, but he is more than capable of going off and being that RH bat the team needs. While I am ambivalent about AJ, I am not on Joe Kelly. The Dodgers should do whatever they can to move Kelly. I do not blame him for the Game 5 loss. He should never have been out there for the 2nd inning. That is all on Doc. Kelly pitched in multiple innings 8 times in 2019; 4 in his worst month, April. He pitched two games of 1.1 and 1.2 IP in August, but because of some alleged physical ailment in September, he only pitched .2 innings after 9/18 before the NLDS. He did his job in the 9th, and should not have come out for the 10th. I do not think Kelly will ever be accepted by Dodger fans. He was a -0.6 WAR pitcher in 2019, but I think he can be a 1.0 WAR pitcher, thus earning his salary. LAD may have to include cash considerations, but maybe he can be moved to a team with less pressure than LAD or BOS. Ken Giles is projected to make $8.4MM. Maybe two years of Joe Kelly and a lottery ticket or two for Ken Giles. But Toronto will probably hold on to Giles and try to move him at the deadline where they will probably get more without Kelly’s contract. But my optimistic brain thinks that Kelly will be good in Toronto and become a valuable trade chit at the deadline as well. Give him a chance to close in Toronto and see what he can do. Ken Giles scares me, but so does Joe Kelly. Turn the page.
5. I think everyone knows I like Austin Barnes, but again, I do not think he will be accepted by Dodger fans. He has three years of team control and is a good defensive catcher with elite framing skills. He may not bring back Jeter Downs or Jo Jo Gray, but maybe a couple at the next tier or a good MiLB reliever. I would consider moving him, but that would require another backup catcher. Russell Martin is an obvious choice, but I would like to see the Dodgers look at Stephen Vogt. The downside for Vogt is that he is yet another LHH. That does not concern me as much for a backup catcher, as there will be plenty of opportunities for Vogt to relieve Smith against tough RHP. Martin knows the Dodgers pitchers, and Keibert Ruiz needs another year at AAA before he should be considered. I like a veteran backup catcher, and Martin and Vogt fill that role.
6. While this trade talk of Belli and Seager is crazy talk (IMO), it is obvious that neither can be counted on to be the Reggie Jackson for the Dodgers in the post season. Who can be? Some are talking about Nicholas Castellanos, but he has three playoff games in his career, and they were not pretty. Maybe he is the missing piece, but maybe he is a RH version of Belli. I think it is a good chance that JDM opts out of his contract, and I would prefer him to Castellanos. I recognize that Castellanos is 4.5 years younger than JDM, but I want a player that has performed in the playoffs rather than a younger player who has not. Castellanos is not a difference maker for the Dodgers to make the playoffs, but is he a difference maker in the playoffs? JDM is a more likely choice (IMO).
7. If the Dodgers choose to sign Castellanos, JDM, or any other RHH OF, Pollock will obviously need to be moved. I do not believe that his salary is out of line, but the return may not be as much as they want. Regardless, the Dodgers may need to make that change and look for the difference maker FOR THE PLAYOFFS. Getting to the playoffs does not seem to be much of a concern, but once they are there, HOPING that they will perform does not seem to work out well for LAD. The Billionaire Boys Club needs to step out of their comfort zone and show the fans that they want to win and not just clip coupons.
8. The Dodger management has already said that they are still hoping for change by bringing back Doc Roberts. Managers make mistakes. They all do. But it sure seems that Doc makes much more than his share and shows no signs of changing his approach. I can only think of one decision that he has made in the playoffs the last 4 years that has not been a mistake, and that is starting Walker Buehler in Game 1 in the 2019 NLDS and having him available to start Game 5. Every other move turned out to be a big mistake over his 4 years in the post season. Management does not seem to want to force change, but instead wants to prove Einstein wrong by continually doing the same thing and hoping for a different outcome.
9. The Cubs are a prime opportunity for the Dodgers to talk with. Both Kris Bryant or Javy Baez seem to be available for the right price. Some want Rendon, but I think it is more likely than not that he returns to Washington. And while there is room to sign TWO significant elite FA and still stay under $220MM, I see no sign that says they would consider it. If Rendon is not available, Kris Bryant would look nice in a Dodger uni. Remember, Bryant can play LF, RF, and 1B besides 3B. He does not have to solely play 3B in 2020. After 2020, 3B would be his as JT will probably be more of a Chase Utley for LAD than a regular 3B. Before Castellanos or JDM, I would like to see the Dodgers make a concerted effort for Bryant. The Cubs need to make a change as well.
10. I do not know if it is the Billionaire Boys Club that is tying AF’s hands, but if it is, I would look for AF to leave. If AF does stay, then he needs to change his approach. Get away from being safe and being satisfied with winning the Division. Go bold and bring in the players that can win a championship. If it costs $230MM so be it. If the Dodgers put an elite team on the field for 2020, how great would it look if they had multiple All-Stars for their ASG at Dodger Stadium. They need to put on a show with their Dodger stars.
It is clear to every Dodger fan that status quo is not the answer. Shake things up. Change the dynamics. If it costs, so be it. The Dodgers have the money, the Dodgers have the farm system. They cannot hold on to all of the prospects. Trading some does not have to cripple the future of the team. In fact, most believe that it will not. At some point they have to be bold and go for it. IF NOT 2020, WHEN?
Discussion (72)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Yankees are on their fifth relief pitcher, who walks two men in a row with one out, and Boone takes him out. Roberts would let him walk two more, and say, as he did with Kelly, whom he left in with the bases loaded and no out, that he was hoping for a ground ball there.
I don’t know what version Cole will be, but neither does anyone else, including Cole himself. He did have one really good year with the Pirates in 2015, when he went 19-8 with a 2.60.
Maybe pitching with a contender has made a difference, or perhaps it’s just experience and maturity. As the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, there is little doubt that he has the talent. But like with any major FA signing, there is risk.
Question for everyone:
After he gets a huge contract, will Gerritt Cole be the Houston version or the Pittsburgh version?
I just read Dylan Hernandez’ article in the LA Times, somehow avoiding the paywall. I have not always been a big fan of Hernandez, but he is absolutely right about the Dodgers not spending sufficiently, and counting on the fans to put up with it. Playing it safe can get you divisions, but likely not titles, because you don’t have the superstars to take you all the way.
Some players do well in one or two playoff series and poorly in one or two.
A one and out series only gives players one series to excell.
Emotions are still raw so now is not a good time to have hard takes.
Just color me dumb (no Mark, I’m not referencing your post just before this one). I have no idea what AF (who I hope returns) or anyone else in the Dodgers FO is thinking or is going to do or not do. They simply know stuff that I don’t, and will base their decisions on that info.
I just have a general sense that the Dodgers need to make some major moves, which will likely require some major investments. And for that reason I would like to see them acquire Cole and a major right handed bat like Rendon. And if it accomplishes the same thing, it can be other names.
I do see some of our young pitchers like Urias, Gonsolin, May and maybe others as being potential pieces in our rotation, but I also do not rule out any of them ending up as a valuable part of the pen. Nothing is written in stone, and circumstances could alter the way we’re thinking, and the Dodgers brass as well.
And if the Dodgers make any trades (major or minor), I do not believe that there are any players who can’t be traded. If the return makes sense, I don’t believe that anyone is untouchable. Which is why I don’t suggest trades. There is simply too much I don’t know, and too many variables. But I do understand that some people suggest trades because the exercise is enjoyable. And who am I keep anyone from having fun?
I am not going to single any one person out, but it seems that many of you have totally taken leave of your senses.
I can buy firing Roberts, but if you think Friedman should go, you are too big of a moron to read this blog.
Frankly, when I read that stupid $___________, I question why I even do this because many are incapable of reason.
I am serious… I know you are upset. I’m upset! But, there is no dumbass vaccine and I ask “why do this when comprehension is so low?”
AC – Now that was a game!!! As I said, we can throw out all the stats and just get down to the game…
#30 USC – #6 ND worth the admission…
1 – Front office: I assume Friedman is returning. Will he replace Zaidi with a new GM to add to the management team?
2 – Field management: If Roberts is returning as has been reported, will someone else take the fall for his bad decision making? Geren and Honeycutt are potential fall guys as bench coach and pitching coach, respectively. Do they kick Honeycutt upstairs and make Mark Prior pitching coach?
3 – Rotation: So at this point Buehler, Kershaw and Maeda are the only sure things. I can’t see Hill returning at 40 after a season where he couldn’t make 60 ip. Ryu is 33 and has had 3 arm surgeries. (Tommy John in 2004, and then shoulder and elbow surgeries in 2015/16). I hope that the Braintrust has learned its lessons about signing the old and infirm to 3+ year contracts.
This leaves (on the current roster) Stripling, Urias, May and Gonsolin. The Dodgers made it clear last year that they don’t want Ross in the rotation. He is a #4 or 5 guy based on stuff. Urias, May and Gonsolin won’t be available to throw 200 innings next year – they will be on innings limits.
This seems to leave an opening for a free agent or trade acquisition for the rotation. The Braintrust won’t sign the likes of Gerrit Cole – too expensive, too many years. If they acquire someone, it will likely be someone most here haven’t thought of.
Bullpen: All but the most loyalty-blinded fan identified the ‘pen as the Dodgers’ achilles heel this season. Some here thought that Joe Kelly would save the day. By the end of the year he had a typical Kelly season – good for a month or 2, horrible for a month or 2. He ended the season with a -.6 WAR. Like Kerhsaw, Jansen is no longer the pitcher he once was. The rest of the bullpen is mediocre at best.
The Braintrust has, in the past, assembled it’s ‘pen out of spare parts, hoping that they will strike gold like it did with Brandon Morrow in 2017. If neither Kelly nor Jansen can be relied on to close, then what do they do to bolster the ‘pen?
Position players: The Dodgers are too left-handed (Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, Muncy, Lux, Verdugo, Beaty.) Pollock was supposed to help with the balance. He is injury prone and was mediocre most of the season. I really can’t see them spending the money on Rendon. Do they make a trade and if so, will someone on the active roster go?
Fans from LAdodgertalk i got call from AF to get Kelly in game as he said this guy shut us down last season in the WS and he is due for these moments. I just follow orders that was the game plan. Wait till next year ! We are gaining experience
Good post AC! Lots to digest. I’m glad that I’m not the one making the decision. I think the first order of business for the Dodgers will be the front office. Namely, will AF stay or move on to Boston. Even though he is the President of baseball Operations, he still answers to Stan Kasten. AF may have a desire to be “the man” and if he does he may very well move on. If he does it is possible that Josh Byrne fills AF’s position and Jeffrey Kingston or Brandon Gomes becomes the GM. Raul Ibanez, could also be promoted to the GM position. On the other hand, AF could choose to stay to erase the perspective that he can not assemble a team that can win the WS. Once the front office is squared away, I think they’ll work on the coaching staff. Honeycutt may retire or be moved to the front office and we may lose a coach or two like last season.
As for the players, we know Freese is not returning and I don’t see any scenario where Bellinger or Seager are traded. Obviously we need to strengthen the bullpen. In my opinion, that becomes easier if Jansen chooses to opt-out of his contract. That frees up a boat load of money that can be used on pitching. I don’t think we cn look to the minors for any immediate help. De Geus possibly, but I think he is a year away. The others just aren’t ready. A really, really long shot that I have my eye on is Justin Bruihl, who has done a great job since being signed.
Top trade candidates are: Austin Barnes, Ross Stripling (though I hope not), Edwin Rios, Yimi Garcia and Dennis Santana. I would not resign Rich Hill and Russ Martin only comes back if they view him as filling the Utley, Freese mentor role.
Same old, same old.
2 FA signings that would obviously only cost money and not prospects.
Jake Odorizzi 15-7 3.51ERA – All Star for the 1st time – 29 years old.
Josh Donaldson – maybe a one year deal.
He hit 37 HRs, 94RBIs – and an OPS of .900
JT will miss many games – like this season, and he can always play a bit of 1B.
He could be the big RH bat we need.
The front office needs to make a commitment to Urias during Spring Training: you are a starting pitcher for 2020 and we will not use you out of the bullpen. Let him have his chance to mature and shine as a starter. He is a very valuable asset but needs to be used properly.
Managers – for the past few years the “in” thing has been to hire guys with no past managerial experience. Sometimes that has worked, other times it has not, but it’s the way a lot of the stat oriented front offices have gone lately. The pendulum may be about to swing back in the other direction. It’s very possible that on opening day 2020, the following guys will be managing major league teams: Joe Girardi, Buck Showalter, Joe Maddon and Dusty Baker (Phillies will be interviewing him). Is it time to bring back Lasorda?
Wow, some of you guys want to make big changes to a team that won 106 games and if not for Dave Roberts would be beating up the Cardinals right now and looking forward to being in the world series for the third consecutive time.
A lot of you want to get Gerrit Cole and I do too, I didn’t mention him in my what to do now post the other day because I didn’t know if the Dodgers could afford him. But it seems like they can, so if that is true then the Dodgers absolutely should do whatever it takes to get him. He’s an ace starting pitcher.
The next priority should be to build a bullpen that can function properly under the new 3 batter minimum rule. Teams who build that type of bullpen will have a huge advantage over teams who do not. The Dodgers only have 3 guys that in their careers have been good against both RHB and LHB and they are Gonsolin (Small sample), Baez, and Jansen (but he has his problems now). That’s it. You guys liked Maeda in the bullpen and I do to, but in his career he has had problems with left handed batters, but with a manager that knows this about Maeda can work around that flaw because Maeda dominates RHB. I’m not sure Dave Roberts can. Therefore in my what to do now post the other day I suggested getting Ken Giles, Will Harris and Aaron Bummer. Don’t take that 3 batter minimum rule lightly because that rule is a game changer and the Dodgers need to get prepared for it.
Some of you want to make big changes to the offense, again the Dodgers won 106 games. The Dodgers had the best team offense OPS in the national league despite Dave Roberts bone headed lineups that included Hernandez and Taylor starting over other guys with better stats. Despite not using Pederson and Pollock as a platoon as stats suggest should have happened. Same goes for a Seager/Taylor platoon at SS.
Guys we just need to get Gerrit Cole and if another ace starting pitcher is available then go get him and then fix the damn bullpen so it can function properly under the new 3 batter minimum rule.
Is it a done deal that Dave Roberts is our manager next year? Because I have not read any confirmed report, I’ve only read 1 article that says there are “2 sources close to the decision makers” that say Roberts will continue to be the Dodgers manager.
There is absolutely no way the Dodgers are going to blow up a young 106 win team by trading players like Seager, a player they want to keep long term. I’m not sure they want to trade Kelly, a pitcher with great stuff and huge upside, who just needs to find consistency. Pollock was very productive at times, just needs to stay away from freak injuries. Had an absolutely terrible playoff, but he still can be part of a solution. Had a lot of big hits this summer. I do expect the Dodgers to do something big and look for opportunities in the trade market. I do think a player like Reynolds makes sense, but that, of course comes down to whether a club like Pittsburg is willing to trade him.
Is there any reporting on Friedman’s Monday annoucement?
Sourced reporting? Not silly blog speculation?
.288/.348/.537/.885
That is Pollock’s second half slash line. I want to see if he can have a healthy year before I give up on that. BTW that’s about 50 points higher than Verdugo’s “incredible” first half.
Muncy can play 2B for a year if we choose to keep Turner and sign Rendon. Lux would have to take a back seat for another year and ride the shuttle for injuries at 2B/SS.
Verdugo can be a 4th outfielder for a year if we sign Casty or another RH Outfielder.
One of Kike or CT3 have to go to prevent Doc from having both in the lineup when his back is against the wall. It seems like it would be easier to get a better manager.
Goodbye Joc, we’ll miss you. Just no room for a left handed 3 true outcome outfielder.
Bryant will NOT be traded this off-season. They’re moving on from Maddon, not to start a rebuild by trading their best player, but to give it one last hurrah. We’ll revisit Bryant at the trade deadline.
Funny stuff today.
I do not blame Kelly at all. He was horrible early this year. However, at the end he was pretty good. Asking Kelly to pitch two innings was stupid. Asking Kershaw to relieve was bad. I agree some players had a bad series. However we were leading 3-1 going into the 8th. From that moment on Doc blew it. We should of won that game. Look what the Washington pitchers are doing to the Cardinals.
Do not trade Bellinger or Seager. We have a good group of young experienced players. We have a window of 3-5 years. That is why Doc as manager bothers me.
I agree with AC. Doc forces the issue. This is what I think Doc does. He plans ahead how he wants to manage the game. That is great. Then he does not adjust as the game goes on. He said he was going to piggyback Kershaw with Buehler. Fine if Buehler got into trouble early. Once we got to the 8th, Kershaw should not of been an option. We had Maeda, Baez, Jansen, Kelly and Urias to finish the last two innings.
Unfortunately, the Dodgers do not exist in a vacuum. There are other teams. And the Yankees have built themselves a juggernaut which might just win five titles in the next eight years or so. Look at that lineup they put out there last night. And guys like Voit, Hicks,and Bird are out. They are additional trade pieces, or could start. Imagine if Stanton comes back next year and hits 45 home runs, as he well might. The bullpen is superb. The only slight issue is the depth of the starting staff. And as you note, they will go after Cole, and if they get him, no one is going to touch them.
This is depressing, but we could see it happening. It’s not like the Yankees cheated, although it was pretty tricky of them to trade Chapman for Torres as a short-term rental, and then have him come back as a free agent. But it was not a secret, the Cubs knew what the price was, and they desperately needed a closer. We don’t do things like that, mostly because we have very few stars, do not sign major free agents, and we do not have major trade pieces as a result. Torres was a budding superstar, and the Yankees identified him and got him.
Brian Cashman has systematically built another powerhouse, after the five titles in the last decade, by going after key pieces via free agency or trade, with a few homegrown products built in. I am not an expert on the Yankees, but I think these are some of the players whom Cashman picked up from other clubs: Torres, Stanton, Gregorius, LeMahieu, Encarnacion, Urshela, Paxton, Sabathia (now retiring), Chapman, Britton, Ottavino. They got the coveted Tanaka from Japan via draft. I’ve probably missed a couple That is a lot of players whom they obtained via the free agent market or very well chosen trades. Their homegrown stars are limited to Judge, Sanchez, Severino, Andujar.
The Yankees, certainly under Cashman, and the Steinbrenners, build to win titles. They have a fallow period at times, and they they built another powerhouse. The Dodgers lineup does not compare with theirs. The difference is that they go boldly after free agents and we do not. They built a very strong bullpen, while we almost haphazardly go into each season by grabbing a few relief pitchers who had a good year or two in the past but are not wanted by their club., and we hope that they will somehow regain past form, which they usually do not. We act as if this is enough, that it will all work out during the season. We pass on every major free agent or trade possibility, even those who might have an affinity for playing for the Dodgers, like Yelich or Stanton. Some of the current and upcoming free agents would rather play for the Yankees or someone else, and so we cannot just decide at some point that we are now going to get the big names. You get your chances, and you take them or you pass on them, and then you’re stuck, hoping that your minor league talent will turn into great players.
I find this very dispiriting, because I know that the Dodgers are not going to be as good as the Yankees next year or the five years after that. All we can do is hope to win the NL, no easy task, either. Dodgers fans invariably overrate their players and prospects, that may well be the case with most fan bases, but it is very noticeable here, and it has gone on for decades. We have Buehler, who is a legitimate great star in the making. We have Bellinger, who might be one, or might be a .280 hitter with power, who is stymied by top playoff pitching. The rest of the roster has prospects, some of whom might be stars, most of whom will not; diamonds in the rough that we have found who do have an upside limit, and then the odds and ends which the ownership, through Friedman, picks up because they are relatively cheap. Why didn’t we get LeMahieu, what an addition he would have been. Why not Yelich two years ago? The Yankees are smarter, and more willing to take bold risks, and make things happen. They are probably heading for their 28th title, we have six. To actually win more titles and not just pine over them, we would need an ownership which was willing to go all-out, within some limits, of course, to build the strongest roster around. It is virtually impossible to match the Yankees roster now, but we could start to try if we actually coveted titles, and actually tried to be the best franchise in baseball, not just the one with the nicest stadium or hot dogs. I greatly doubt that we will be taking such a course, and that’s much more upsetting for loyal and aware fans than just losing a key playoff game.
Nice article AC. Agree with you on most things.
1, I always have loved Stripling who like Buehler is a very intelligent pitcher. Guess that is why I liked Greinke WHEN he was with the Dodgers NOT because of his personality but because of how he studied pitching. Strip seems to have the same mentality and wish the best for him. I am not comparing ability with Stripling and Greinke, so please do not throw anything at me. Well, if you must, make it marshmallows.
2. Trade Kelly and some others and go for Cole, Harper and or JDM. .
3. Keep Martin. He would be such a great influence on the young catchers.
4. Do not trade Corey, Bellinger and the young rookies. They were part of the success of winning the division this year. I see great things coming from them next year.
5. There is never a “good time” to make some changes, so do it now.
I cut Kershaw…
No, I am joking. Kershaw is still better than Wainright or Hamels.
This would be the real rotation:
1. Cole
2. Buehler
3. Urias
4. Kershaw
5. May
I am not eager to trade Seager. I do think he will return to All-Star status in 2020, but the Dodgers have to get more L – R Balance.
Urias has really only had the shoulder injury and the Dodgers have deliberately held him back for several years. He’s only 23 and is not a reliever. He had a 2.49 ERA this year and the league hit .201 in 2019 against him. Only a handful of player were better and they are names like Cole, Verlander, Flaherty, DeGrom, and Strasburg. I think Julio shines in 2020. He will pitch at an All-Star Level.
Oh man, this is going to be a long off-season. Carlos, it seems like you should just make a list of the 3 players you want to keep and just say trade everyone else for new players.
The team won 106 games, so we obviously need a complete tear down so we can get rid of all our players that are just about to hit their prime years.
AC, I had to double-take and blink my eyes a couple of times and check to see who wrote this article. Between saying that Doc made only one good decision and that the team should blow past the CBT, I couldn’t tell who wrote this. Those are two things I was blasted for saying all LAST off-season. Maybe I’m not as stupid as I am.
Let’s keep this simple folks. Same needs as the trade deadline. A guy that has experience closing games and a right handed, middle of the order bat.
There’s probably a few guys that are worthy for the rotation. Cole, Wheeler, Odorizzi and our own Ryu. Cole is the obvious choice and Wheeler could be the next Cole.
Now, what is all this nonsensical talk about trading Urias? Is this stemming from his non-incident? It certainly can’t be because of his performance. File him and Cory in the same folder. Both are young. Both played this year following injuries. Both were very good players for us this year.
It’s hard for us to remember that Julio is a 22 year old kid. He’s just one year older than Lux. He missed two full years of development and the Dodgers have dicked him around for years now, always sticking to their plan, except for when it comes to Urias. In fact, if they would have stuck to the plan and worked him in as a starter we would probably still be playing right now.
About his incident. He and his girlfriend had a day off, so he took her out for the day in Beverly Hills. When it was time to leave, she was a little belligerent, probably as a result of too many adult beverages. He had to make a decision, walk away and leave her in the parking lot, or try to get he into the car. That’s a no win situation right there. We all know what happened next. He’s 22 freaking years old. Give him a freaking break!
Same thing with Corey. He was not himself all year coming off of two surgeries, he still put up a (Pick your favorite stat and put it here). He was still freaking good, especially for a SS even though he looked too skinny all year. Just to put this into perspective. Javier Baez was only a little better than Cory. Baez plays in much more of a hitters park and wasn’t coming off injury and didn’t miss all of the previous season. Baez has 4 full seasons (and two partial seasons) in the MLB and 2 of the 4, he OPS’d Top Free Agents to pursue…
Cole Wheeler Odorizzi or Ryu
Casty / Rendon / JDM / Abreu
Will Smith
Then you have a bunch of spare parts to trade away for more prospects and bullpen help.
If Cody and Cory played at their normal levels in this last series we would still be in it. I believe that both just ran out of gas. Cory coming back from 2 injuries and Cody wasn’t Cody the last month, I think he was just worn down. I certainly wouldn’t trade either one of them. They are still very young players. I look for a strong season from Cory and hope that Cody can have another great season and carry it through the post season.
I agree we need to sign Cole. We need to have a top 2 comparable to the Nats. I love Clayton but he is no longer a sure thing.
Washington has offered Rendon a contract but it’s with deferred money. Bryant would be an interesting trade.
Read someplace that Snell could be available. If theirs any truth to this I could see AF working some deal with Tampa as he’s done in the past.
Carlos, I don’t have time right now to comment on most of what you wrote, but I would caution that you take into account the new 3 hitter minimum that pitchers have to face before suggesting that the Dodgers sign Kolarek or any loogy. I suspect that given the new rule, pitchers like him may go the way of the dodo.
Wow! Great column. Lots of info, agree pretty much with everything. I’m guessing that the Dodgers will pursue an elite free agent, maybe with a lot of money, but shorter length. Something similar to Bryce Harper. I totally agree that player should be Cole, may pursue an up and coming relief pitcher or two through trades. I’m guessing management and ownership is in shock and since this is a big year, All-Star game/Stadium improvements and all, they may want to make a major signing as a statement to the fan base. The Dodgers aren’t trading Seager. Look for him to have a big year in ‘20.
Great post AC. I agree that Gerrit Cole should be at the top of the Dodgers’ shopping list. And though I would love to have Rendon, I can see other alternatives like Kris Bryant being alternatives.
There will be lots of players available via FA and through trades. Probably a bunch that you may have overlooked. But as you suggested, now is as good a time as any to go bold.
I agree with most of your comments AC. Go after Cole. We need two # 1 pitchers. Kershaw can be a 4/5. Trade Kike. Taylor can play SS, LF, CF, RF, and 2nd. He is pretty good with consistent play. Sign Martin for one more year. Give Ruiz one more year at AAA. If you get a right handed bat for the outfield then Pollock and Joc have to go. Stripling, Barnes, and Rios need to be traded. They all need a new start.
I will be disappointed if Doc returns. He does well for 162 games, but is a complete dud in the playoffs. I have seen the same horror movie for four years now. I see no improvement. I do not see how Doc and Jansen can exist on the same team. I think Doc may take himself out and sign with another team.
I would sign Hill for another year and put him in the bull pen.
Dodgers need to be more RH Batter balanced. Do a straight trade of Seager for Bryant. I like Seager but he probably would not be signed and struggled horribly in postseason and has been injury prone. Bryant brings more flexibility in that he can play more positions even do he is not that great defender but seems more athletic and faster than Seager and with more Home Run Pop even do he also has had injury issues but would be a fair deal. I would prefer Mookie Betts but it would be great if they could get both which i doubt. But i would trade Urias, Joc, Kelly , A prospect for Mookie Betts and someone else.
I would not re sign Rich Hill. I see Wainwright and Cole Hamels would be available in FA and i woiuld sign one of them to 1 year deal incentive type contract instead of Hill. I like Hill but too many injuries . Only way i would sign Hill is if he accepts league minimum deal. I would non tender Baez,Garcia, Floro, Alexander, etc. I would keep Kolarek. Ship Kelly for anything that you can get even paying part of his salary and get new arms for bullpen . Team needs change.