I used to own www.kershawshankredemption.com, and it may mean more to me than it does to you… or not, but Game #5 was a real redemption for one Clayton Kershaw from his previous bad outing. He’s now 9-8 with a 4.11 ERA in the postseason. IF he can keep that up, he can get his cumulative postseason ERA to below 4.00. This year, Clayton’s playoff ERA is 2.50 with a .83 WHIP. That’s more like it!
While Clayton looked very much like his old self, the Dodgers were barely recogonizable, with no home runs and just two extra base hits (both doubles) to go with three stolen bases. None of the teams left in the playoffs are carring a high batting average:
- Boston – .235
- Houston – .234
- Los Angeles – .220
- Milwaukee .219
The Dodgers lead all the remaining teams in ERA with 2.81 while Milwaukee is at 2.83. The Dodger relievers continue to shine with a 1.25 ERA while the Brewers bullpen ERA is 3.48. ON the verge of elimination at 3-1, the Astros team ERA is 5.91, while the Red Sox tem ERA is 4.75! Good pitching stops good hitting and both Milwaukee and LA are pitching very well. The Dodgers have held Christain Yelich who has been on fire, to a .150 BA. The Dodgers have six relievers, who combined, have not given up a run in the playoffs and a 7th (Madson) who has given up one.
Pedro Baez, formerly el Gasolino, has emerged as a lockdown reliever. Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig are both hitting over .300 in the post season and are the only Dodgers with that average, while Machado, Taylor and Puig are all hitting over .300 in the NLCS. Doc’s patience with Cody Bellinger is paying off as he is just looking to get a hit, not hit Mars!
Overall, this has been a pitching dominated series and Game 5 should be more of the same. Ryu will start the game on Friday in Milwaukee, but will have a short leash. I would imagine that Rich Hill would also be available, along with the rest of the rested bullpen. Hopefully, the Dodgers can end it in six, but this Brewer team is very tough and deeper than you may think. They won’t lay down and die.
I would see no reason to not start Austin Barnes again at Catcher. If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. Cody Bellinger said “Our approach was to single them to death” and he was only half joking! Of the teams left in the Playoffs, the Dodgers have the fewest home runs (2). That could mean that in Game Six, they will bring out about 5 big flies in Milwaukee… or not! I am stuck in San Antonio until Sunday night, but I will be watching the games. This should be fun!
Craig Counsell tried to trick Dave Roberts by taking out Miley after 5 pitches, but it didn’t work. Milwaukee fans are castigating him today. When you win, you are a genius and when you lose, you are an idiot! You need to realize how difficult it is to get to the World Series two years in a row. You have to be lucky and good. Right about now, it looks like the Astros won’t make it back (although I admit that can change).
In a season where the Dodger’s Pythagorean W-L Record was 102-61, with 804 Runs Scored and 610 Runs Allowed, they certainly were not lucky as they won 10 games less than that. Maybe they will be a little luckier in the playoffs and I truly believe that this team is built for the playoffs. It’s really showing up with the re-made bullpen. Young Julio has been a factor and could be an even bigger one yet!
The last time the Dodgers were in two consecutive World Series was 1977 and 1978 and they lost both time 4-2. They shold have fired that bum manager they had! But, I don’t remember the fans calling for Tommy’s head, however I guess that was before the internet…
Stuff
Bill Plaschke of The LA Times has a great piece today (he is capable of surprising me sometimes). In part he wrote:
On an old-fashioned autumnal Wednesday afternoon at Dodger Stadium, the Dodgers moved to within one win of reaching their second consecutive World Series by taking the most nostalgic of paths.
They traveled Route 1988.
Did you recognize it? It certainly felt like it. For one game, anyway, Clayton Kershaw was Orel Hershiser, Chris Taylor was John Shelby, Austin Barnes was Steve Sax, Max Muncy was Mike Marshall and Yasiel Puig was, of course, Mickey Hatcher.
It was a day of bulldogs and stuntmen and a 5-2 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers in a pivotal Game 5 of the National League Championship Series.
Finally, a picture is worth a thousand words as to how the Dodgers played Game 5. Junkyard Dogism is alive and well!
Discussion (83)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The Athletic has a piece on Cody Bellinger
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https://theathletic.com/599286/2018/10/19/sarris-will-the-real-cody-bellinger-please-stand-up/
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Like me, they believe he will evolve into an even better hitter.
According to The Athletic, the Brewers are now accusing the Dodgers of stealing their signs. The Athletic wrote: If the Dodgers are decoding signs, or stealing them, it doesn’t seem to be helping much. As a team, with runners in scoring position in this series, they are hitting .220, with a .599 OPS.
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https://theathletic.com/599226/2018/10/18/something-looks-a-little-bit-off-in-a-postseason-of-paranoia-some-brewers-suspect-the-dodgers-are-stealing-signs/
This week is a great week for redemption for pitchers that have not pitched as well, in the post season.
First Kershaw, and the all time post season darling, Price, good for him.
Boston it is
Do you still want Manny back in LA?
https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/has-manny-machado-played-and-talked-himself-out-philly-ever-getting-philly
JD will be in LF!
Assuming that Dodgers and Boston go to the world series, what position would JD Martinez play? Obvious DH in Boston, but in the 3 games in LA, where would he play? It is for that reason that I want to play against them and not against Houston, since they are a more complete team and that they do not depend so much on a particular hitter, as Boston depend on JD
View from the 1718 Steakhouse in San Antonio across from the Alamo
Great article by Grant Brisbee (yeah that guy) on the difference between starting a Clayton Kershaw vs. the Brewers’ strategy in Game 5.
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I totally agree on the aesthetics too.
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https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/10/18/17992098/dodgers-brewers-nlcs-game-5-clayton-kershaw
Great article in The Athletic on a Mentor for Manny Machado. It’s compelling:
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https://theathletic.com/597379/2018/10/18/machados-mentor-a-lot-of-people-will-never-get-to-know-who-the-guy-is-who-the-man-is-they-just-know-who-swaggy-machado-is/
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I was going to save this until after the season, but I’ll give it to you now:
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I believe that Manny’s best years are ahead of him and I would try and sign him if he agreed to 2 Things:
1. That he agrees to play wherever is best for the team… not Manny; and
2. That he hits the weight room… he needs a little more muscle.
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I would consider a 8-10 year $30 mil a year deal for him… or something similar. SS is Corey’s… unless he can’t cut it. JT goes to 1B (helps his knees) and the loser of the SS battle goes to 3B. Mad Max goes to 2B and cuts some weight while taking 200 ground balls a day.
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I’ll tell you the rest after the Dodgers win the World Series.
In 2016, Longenhagen said this about Julio:
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As things stand right now Urias projects as a #2/3 starter. He has top-of-the rotation potential, but most of his projection relies on technical development and refinement rather than physical maturation. And too often, pitching prospects have unrealistic “future ace” labels hung on them; calling Urias a guy who projects as a #2 starter is no knock on him, but a recognition of how hard it is to achieve ace-level performance. But the Dodgers already have an ace, and if Urias is as good in the short-term as the projections think, he’ll be able to help the Dodgers until they shut him down to protect his arm.
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Keith Law, MLB, BA and others project him as a Number 1… as his ceiling!
I always believed the Cards were stealing signs and Jeff Luhnow is from that organization… who had people go to jail for cheating…
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I’m just sayin’….
Love Utley’s comment at the end
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https://www.mlb.com/news/chase-utley-familiar-with-being-villain/c-298141718
Upon further review, the fairest thing to do in the Boston/Houston game would’ve been to call the play a ground rule double so that neither side was satisfied.
A few innings don’t constitute a comeback and hitting 95-97 MPH in short spurts is not indicative of a successful comeback. I have liked what I have seen and I lean toward a successful comeback. 120 innings in 2019 would be a success to me.
I was only able to make it to one game in the NLCS… so I’m very happy that I ended up go to Wednesday’s game.
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I think it was the best game (against the best competition) that they played all year. We lost so many close games against the best teams this season because the team (FO / Management / Most of the Players) had been so rigid in their hitting approach / philosophy.
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I believe that if they started the year with the small ball, situational hitting, “single them to death” style philosophy… then they probably would have won 10-15 more games this season. The all or nothing approach can work well against average pitching… but against one of the best pitching staff’s in the league… it’s a great way to lose those close games that you could have and should have won.
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I’m hoping that they have finally seen the light and will continue with this type of approach. I think it’s the only way you can beat teams like Milwaukee, Boston, and Houston in a 7 game series. It’s what most of us have been screaming for all year… I just don’t know why it took so long for so many in the Dodger organization to come to this realization.
There is no question that Urias has top-of-the-rotation stuff. I saw Clayton in A Ball and as a rookie and Julio has better stuff than Clayton did at that age. Can he come back from shoulder surgery is the only question. If he comes back 100%, Longenhagen is grossly mistaken. If he’s not 100%, Longenhagen may be right.
barnes is catching game six
Hey AC or DC,
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I hate to put you both on the spot, and that spot being trying to decipher someone else’s words, but….
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In a recent chat, Longenhagen responded thusly in speaking about Urias:
Derrick – Do you see Julio Urias eventually actually establishing himself as 1-2 big league starter? What do you see for Anderson Espinoza and Yadier Alvarez?
Eric A Longenhagen – I’d guess Urias hovers in the #3-#3/4 range if everything comes back to pre-injury form (including his command). Espinoza has that kind of stuff, too. Yadi….who knows. That guy has other issues right now.
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I’m super confused with this because…
If Urias with his pre-injury form and stuff was considered an ace, then why would he now be considered lower now? Is it just that his age was so exceptional, and the lost year plus has changed him?
So many are gone. Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Max Scherzer, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado. Erstwhile champs too. Cardinals, Giants, Phillies. Regular season juggernauts. Indians, Cubs, Yankees. No more wild cards. No great stories like the A’s or the Rays. No Cinderellas. Pirates, Mariners. No upstarts, no Braves. Last season’s champs are one loss away from joining the pile. The winningest NL team too. (One member of the Brewers is even gone, sent home early and ineligible to return.) If Boston sends Houston’s repeat dreams packing like a long fly ball hit into a crowd, there will be three. Then two. There is no question we are the hungriest team left. Will we be the last?
This season hasn’t been that much fun for me watching the Dodgers play baseball, but last night the game was fantastic, as Mark said above, no home runs and just two extra base hits (both doubles) to go with three stolen bases. For me, that was a baseball game.
Read your 77 and 78 WS remark Mark, and that’s fine, you have your thoughts and I have mine.
One more win,hope Ryu pitches a great game and this series is over.
Agree on all counts. Also, I think the radar guns are juiced. No way Madson is throwing 98.
I also do not believe that we have seen the last of Clayton Kershaw in a Dodger uni at Dodger Stadium. While I never like counting my chickens before they hatch, I am confident that if the Dodgers continue to play one game at a time, they will win the NLCS, and he will be pitching it the WS at Dodger Stadium. It will not be easy, because the Brewers are not just formidable, but they are confident & comfortable, and will be home for the final NLCS game(s).
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No matter how much John Smoltz and Joe Buck build up the Brewers and take shots at the Dodgers, it is the Dodgers who are playing out of their offensive element and still winning. While the Brewers were considered the clutch team when coming into the series, it is the Dodgers who are the clutch team thus far. They are bound and determined to break out the BIG lumber one of these games, and I hope it will be against Miley on Friday. But I fully expect Ryu to continue to hold the Brewer bats at bay, so if it is a 1-0 or 2-1 win, that will be fine as well.
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Kenley is looking more and more unhittable. Just like games 4 & 5, Kenley can go 2 innings in Game 6 and come back in Game 7 if needed. Baez has been absolutely the best reliever in the playoffs. I have no idea what has transformed him, but it may be the number of offspeed pitches he is now throwing. Maybe he believes in that pitch more now and is willing to get beat by it. Most pitchers do not want to get beat by throwing a secondary pitch for a mistake, so they stick with their bread and butter. For Baez that is his fastball. But if he can show the offspeed and keep it off the plate, that does wonders. But you cannot be afraid to throw it, and thus far Petey has not been.
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Madsen, Floro, Maeda, Ferguson, Wood, and Urias have all pitched well in relief. And they have not been overworked. I would expect Hader, Jeffress, and Knebel to be fully involved in the final game(s).
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While I wanted revenge on the Astros, I am pulling for Boston for two reasons. One is the practical…I would rather face Sale (injured?), Price, Porcello, and Eovaldi than Verlander, Cole, Keuchel, and Morton. I like the Astros today with Verlander vs Price, but the Red Sox will win it in Boston. My second reason for my Red Sox preference is personal. There is a 2004 WS ring that keeps pulling me back to their side. While 2004 was huge for our family, I have been a closet Red Sox fan since Bill Monbouquette days. I was also a closet Orioles fan because of Brooks Robinson and Jim Palmer, and later Cal Ripken Jr.
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Keep the same lineup vs Miley as came out on Game 5. Belli is maturing before our eyes. He may not hit .300 over a season, but he is learning to adjust. He is still only 23, and his best days are ahead of him. His outfield play gives the team options for the future. He should be like JT and Machado, and never come out.
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Austin Barnes should be the starting catcher for the remainder of the playoffs. He is doing well with the pitchers and behind the plate, and he has a couple of timely hits, and one in particular. He has been the starting catcher in all three wins. Grandal on the other hand, also has 2 hits but in his other 8 PA, he has 6 K’s and 1 GIDP. Plus, the errors and passed balls keep mounting.
I think AC had it right a
yesterday, about Kershaw not having to two bad games in a series.
And I am happy Kershaw can enjoy himself in this series, and hopefully this game yesterday, can help him gain more confidence to just pitch when he is getting challenged, instead of just throwing.
So much about the talk, where relief pitchers, pitch one inning or more each, and dominate a series.
It doesn’t work well in a short series, when a team will see those same pitchers, to much.
And that is not the answer or practical, in a long baseball season either.
Because pitchers are not robots, and because of that, they will not live up to their numbers every time they pitch, so it is good to stay with the hot hand, at that moment in time.
Hopefully our suggestions like Bobby alluded too yesterday, will have our players going oppo against Miley on Friday night, too.
BTW, Al Leiter, who is like the harmless guy on the barstool next to you who won’t shut up, finally let someone else talk for a minute and what followed was a pretty cogent explanation of Kershaw’s current pitch mix and how it’s deployed. They showed how Kershaw throws his fastball to the top of the zone and his slider to the bottom. The moment of indecision when a hitter tries to recognize what the pitch is becomes to deception that allows him get called strikes or get guys off balance. In terms of missing bats, that’s clearly the curveball’s domain and man does that sucker break. His best ones usually finish right on top of home plate, with so much spin and drop that they are essentially unhittable. I would imagine laying off the curveball is job #1 when facing CK1.
Bobby – you really do have a great life.
One of my son-in-laws is a huge Red Sox fan, so the Meathead and I may catch a game or two.
I’ll admit, I won’t cry if Boston takes out Houston. Benitendi ‘s catch last night was basically the same catch Belly made, but in a much higher leverage situation. Awesome play!
Looking forward to closing this thing out tomorrow, so that I can actually go to Lebron’s home opener Sat night in peace!!
A few things: First of all, if you’re not in a great mood today, you’re doing it wrong. This is literally the best position we’ve been in all year AND when you couple that with the thought that we haven’t even been playing our best ball, it’s real cause for optimism and possibly even irrational exuberance. Secondly, I refuse to entertain any discussions of NLCS MVP or match-ups with the AL opponent; it’s far too early for that–we have accomplished nothing yet–and while I will watch tonight’s AL game, it is only because in addition to our “5 more wins” mantra, there is also a “4 teams left” one that could get reduced tonight and that’s newsworthy. Finally, I’d like to say while I am a ruthless business man in my non-digital iteration, I am personally very happy for Clayton Kershaw for his accomplishment last night. He deserves all the adoration from the fans he gets. He is the rarest of rarities in this world of sports: a modest superstar with off-the-charts character, likability, and humility. He is truly the best, win or lose. Go Blue!
It’s been said that potentially we saw Kershaw for his last appearance in a Dodgers uniform. I don’t have the fear that will be the case. I have a hunch in this coming World Series Clayton Kershaw, with a little help from his friends Turner and Jansen, will shine the brightest for the greatest moment of their careers. Those three I cast my trust the most. That’s their doing. My eyes have only witnessed. I have my hunches-hence my name! CHEERS friends!
Hey Rudy,
It’s a free country and free blog, but I’d be wary about liberally posting The Athletic’s content.
The content is great. And I don’t think you posted the entire article in the previous post, but it was pretty lengthy….